It was Thursday, June 9, 2016. What a great birthday present for me, Day 1 of the MLB Rule 4 (First Year Player) Draft. Everything I was reading indicated that the Dodgers were leaning towards a HS shortstop as their #1 draft pick. They had two other first rounders that they could spend on college picks (and did: Will Smith and Jordan Sheffield). But the thought of grabbing a HS SS who could be a potential replacement for Corey Seager (if necessary) was too much to turn down. They had time to develop him. If they missed on a HS player they could make it up with the 32nd and 36th pick.
Overall, this was a marvelous draft with 1st overall pick, Mickey Moniak (Phillies) deemed a can’t miss Carlsbad, CA HS OF prospect. He has not yet played AAA, but he did make his MLB debut late last year (8 game 18 PA). Other players in the draft included AL ROY Kyle Lewis, Nick Senzel, Ian Anderson, Cal Quantrill, Matt Manning, Alex Kiriloff, Forrest Whitley, Eric Lauer, Carter Kieboom, Dane Dunning, Dylan Carlson, Taylor Trammell, and Nick Lodolo, all in the 1st round. As an aside, two of the first round picks were from rival high schools in Elk Grove/Sacramento that I got to follow thru their HS senior seasons. Matt Manning, #9 pick (Sheldon HS) RHP by Detroit, and Dylan Carlson #34 pick (Elk Grove HS) by St. Louis. Manning as the Tigers #3 prospect, and Carlson as the Cardinals #1, both figure to provide huge benefits for their respective teams this season.
There were five HS shortstops who were deemed 1st round potential picks:
- Gavin Lux
- Delvin Perez
- Hudson Sanchez (now Potts)
- Carter Kieboom
- Bo Bichette
On the day of the draft, I wrote (on another site) that it was my hope that the Dodgers would draft Bo Bichette. As it turned out, Bichette did not go until the 2nd round right after the Dodgers selected Mitch White. Thus they could have drafted someone else (at 20) and still been able to get Bichette (at 66). Reading between the lines, Lux was considered a plus hitter, with limited exposure and experience because he was from Kenosha, Wisconsin. Kenosha is in the Southeast part of the state bordering Lake Michigan, warm summers and cold cold winters that lasted several weeks after the baseball seasons began in warmer clients.
- Bichette went to Lakeland HS (Florida).
- Potts went to Carroll HS (Texas)
- Kieboom went to Walton HS (Marietta, GA)
- Perez went to International Baseball Academy (Ceiba, Puerto Rico)
Going into the draft, Perez was considered the best HS shortstop prospect. Some considered Perez a top five pick. Early comps had him compared to fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Correa. However, two days before the draft, Perez had allegedly failed a PED test. Perez slid down to #23, chosen by the Cardinals, as the 2nd SS selected. Potts was selected #24 by the Padres, and Kieboom was selected #28 by the Nationals.
Perez has not played above low A ball. Potts has reached AA, but has not yet produced positive metrics at that level; .216/.285/.378/.663 (537 PA). He was traded to Boston last summer in the Mitch Moreland trade.
Carter Kieboom is still considered a solid 3B prospect of the Washington Nationals. The Nationals chose not to upgrade their 3B role this winter, hoping that he will seize the position and run with it. Sound familiar? The Nats do have reserves who could step in, with Josh Harrison Luis Garcia, and Starlin Castro, whichever is not the regular 2B. Kieboom had a productive MiLB career. In 1,462 PA his slash line is .287/.378/.469/.847, and a 20% K rate. His MLB slash line with 165 PA is .181/.309/.232/.541, and a 30% K rate.
Gavin Lux’s slash line for MiLB and MLB are fairly similar to Kieboom’s.
- MiLB – .305/.383/.483/.866 with 1,801 PA and an 18% K rate.
- MLB – .210/.278/.377/.655 with 151 PA and a 28% K rate.
Kieboom is about 2 months older than Lux. Both are hoping that their MLB fortunes will take a positive turn in 2021, and that both will earn regular starting positions in their respective lineups.
Oh yeah. Bo Bichette. All he has done is earn the regular starting SS position for the Toronto Blue Jays. Bichette is about 3 months younger than Lux, and his MLB numbers are outstanding for a 22 year old major league SS: .307/.347/.549/.896 in 340 PA, and a 23% K rate. Now the only question for Bichette is whether Marcus Semien assumes 2B, or SS moving Bo to 3B.
What about the Dodger’s Gavin Lux? He had a relatively good start to his professional career. At Rookie League (AZ Rookie) and Advanced Rookie (Ogden), Gavin hit a combined .296/.375/.399/.775, with zero HRs. The Dodgers development team were satisfied that Gavin had the bat to ball skills to succeed, but he needed a change in his launch angle to take advantage of his hard hit ball abilities.
However It was that change in his hitting approach that apparently started his sophomore season (2017) out slowly at Great Lakes. Lux did not pass over the Mendoza line until May 15. His BA dropped back down to .201 on July 24, and all the whispers about Lux being a bust became a roar. But something happened (clicked). Perhaps something changed his confidence. On July 27, Lux started his final 37 games of 2017, and all he did was bat .331/.386/.490/.876 in 158 PA to finish the season.
Many believe that Lux did not take off offensively until 2019. However his positive new approach began to take hold in his 2018 season, when he batted a combined .324/.399/.514/.913 at Rancho and Tulsa. Gavin was named to the Post Season California League All Star team, as well as the Baseball America AA All Star team and Baseball America Minor League All Star. In 2018, he belted 15 HRs, after only hitting seven in 2016 and 2017 combined.
2019 was a dream season for Gavin Lux, as it would be for any MiLB player. He started at Tulsa and batted .313/.375/.521/.896, and 13 HRs. But those metrics paled in comparison to what he did the second half of 2019 at AAA (OKC), where he batted .392/.478/.719/1.197, and 13 HRs. He totaled 26 HRs. His 2019 awards:
- Post Season All Star (Texas League)
- Baseball America AAA All-Star (OKC)
- Baseball America MiLB All-Star (OKC)
- Baseball America MiLB Player of the Year (OKC)
- Participant in the Future’s Game
To top it off, Lux got THE CALL to LAD in September after the AAA season ended. While his batting line (.240/.305/.400/.705) was not up to the par of Corey Seager’s September 2015 call up batting line (.337/.425/.561/.986), it was not all that bad. Both were 21 when they got THE CALL.
Going into the 2020 season, Lux was considered the odds on favorite to become the NL ROY. Carter Kieboom and Dylan Carlson were also in the conversation. Spring Training 1 did not show Gavin in his best light. Doc loves platooning and Gavin was working himself into a platoon role at 2B, hardly what Gavin was expecting. Many believed that Gavin was going to be optioned and start the season at AAA. Was he pressing? At 22 years old? Perhaps, but Lux would not make any excuses. Then the pandemic hit, and Gavin went home.
When the Summer Pre-Season started, Lux was absent. Some have speculated that Gavin had COVID and that was why he was late. Because of HIPPA laws, LAD could not divulge whether Lux had COVID or not without his expressed permission, which he did not give. For whatever reason, Lux could not got get untracked when he did arrive. Not only was his offense off, but so was his defense, specifically his throwing. Lux was never considered a GG candidate to begin with, but he was never considered a detriment in the infield. He would not be the first 2B with the Dodgers to have the yips. Tommy Lasorda refused to take Steve Sax out when he came down with the yips, and Saxie went on to have a very good career, the first eight with LAD. Hopefully the same leniency can be granted to the Dodgers best prospect since Corey Seager.
Because of his slow start, it was considered prudent to sent Lux back to the secondary site at USC. While at USC, Kenosha became a powder keg and Lux’s hometown was burning. I first became aware of Kenosha when my son played for the Kenosha Kroakers in 1995, winning the Northwest Summer League. Being from the San Fernando Valley in LA, Andy enjoyed the smaller town life in Kenosha.
But to Gavin Lux, Kenosha was home.
Gavin was recalled on August 29, about a week into the Kenosha riots. He was still 22, and I am sure he was concerned about his family as well as the town he was born and raised in. Could that have had a detrimental effect on the young man? How many of us more “veteran” human feelings could have better coped more than 1,700 miles from home under those circumstances.
IMO, Gavin Lux deserves a do-over for 2021. It is up to him to make the most of it.
The MiLB schedules are out. AAA (OKC) will be playing 142 games while AA (Tulsa), A+ (Great Lakes), and full season A (Rancho) will be playing 120 games. AAA will have a three day All Star break July 12 – 14. That is an increase of two scheduled games for AAA and a reduction of 20 scheduled games for the other three leagues.
In all four leagues, the teams will be playing an opponent in a six game series followed by a day off. The lone exception is for AAA prior to the All Star Break where the series is a four game series. In AAA, the off days are Wednesday. In the other three leagues, the off day is Monday.
AAA will start April 8, while the other three leagues the season will start May 4.
We need an LADT poll on Gavin Lux. Star- average – or dud? I say 2022 star.
I hope STAR. But I will not predict.
Gavin Lux his first MLB games:
42G, 138AB, 5HR, 17 RBI, 7BB, 24SO, .240AVG,.305 OBP,.400 SLG,.705 OPS, 85OPS+, 1.1 DWAR, 1.3 WAR.
Second player his first MLB games:
43G, 134AB, 2HR, 21RBI, 11BB, 22SO, .239AVG,.322 OBP,.373SLG,.696 OPS, 87OPS+, 0.2 DWAR, 0.3 WAR
The second player is … Chase Utley.
Stats Baseball-Reference
It’s important to note that Lux debuted at age 21 and Utley at 24, Utley’s first big season was in his third year at 26.
Utley in his first season was an 87 OPS+ player, in his second 93 OPS+, in his third, at 26, he was 132 OPS
I think that Lux is going to come into camp with an attitude this year. I think he will be determined to get the job and keep it. There were times we saw that determination, and other times it was missing. But he is highly capable of very good performances. He was after all one of the few Dodgers who had a 2 homer game last season.
I have high hopes for Gavin, but a bad feeling that I can’t shake. I hope he plays up to his potential. If he could be a top-of-the-order hitter, his speed would kill!
This team is so stacked we can afford to let Lux begin the season batting 8, playing 2b, and learn and grow without too much pressure.
While many others on this board began the “Lux is a bust” movement 5 minutes into his career, I predicted he’d be a star. I also predicted last spring training (pre covid), and after a delicious sativa edible, that Gavin Lux would be the last Dodger to ever wear the #9.
I am sticking with that edible-induced prediction. So Cassidy, the answer to you question is “star” to “superstar”. He stays at 2b and will be our 2b into the 2030’s as the best LA Dodger 2b ever.
I believe in Lux but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor won the 2b job, McKinstry/Neuse helped on the bench, and we added another OF to the mix.
Nice write-up, AC. Thanks for making my fresh bean coffee more enjoyable this morning.
I am glad to hear that the Dodgers will give Gavin Lux every opportunity to show why he was deemed a first round potential pick. I, for one, believe he has it within himself to do that, and will.
On another line of thought, I will miss Pederson and Hernandez this year as I have missed Maeda, , Ryu, Hill and Verdugo. But in current years, to me, , there are Dodgers, some who have contributed greatly, but all who h ave been an asset on the field, Clubhouse and bench. Mine are: Andre Ethier, Ross Stripling, Charlie Culbertson and Trevor Oaks to name a few. These guys will always have one of my favorite a Dodger memories. I wish, if it were possible, that they were still with the team and wonder how they are doing these days.
PS, AC, a curiosity question because I am a nosy person, lol. How did Hudson Sanchez become Potts?
I am not really sure how Sanchez became Potts. To be honest I never even thought of it. Perhaps he changed it to his Mother’s maiden name. I will look into, but hopefully someone has already uncovered that bit of information and will share.
Thanks, AC. I checked online. He changed his name to his step-father’s name. I appreciate all the help I can get on researching my silly questions, so being not as internet-proficient as most, I thank you all.
I just saw the same thing.
Great article, Jeff!
The year 2020 was very tough for so many people, and Gavin Lux appears to be one of them.
I am still very positive on his prospects, and will discount his results from 2020. Many former MVPs and all stars struggled during the shortened 2020 season with following batting averages:
Yelich – .205
Bryant – .206
Altuve – .219
Bellinger – .239
Baez- .203
Muncy – .192
Maybe Bo Bichette will turn out to be a missed draft opportunity, like so many others. I was surprised to see how well he has performed as a professional. In comparing, minor league careers of Bichette, Lux, and Tatis, he outperformed all of them:
Bichette: .321/.380/.894
Lux: .305/.383/.866
Tatis: .280/.360/.847
While Bichette has the best minor league stats, Lux had the best seasons after his swing change.
It is very possible, that Gavin Lux does not become a great major league player, but it will take a few more seasons before I would give up on his potential. Very few players have seasons like Lux did in 2018-2019 in AA/AAA, with .347/.421/1.028 in 2019. Let’s give him a clean slate in 2021, and remember he was the #2 prospect in all of baseball just last year.
And even if Lux does not become a successful MLB player, at least the Dodgers have not guaranteed him $340 million over the next 14 years!
Rec for RC.
Post more please!
I don’t get the persistent – Gavin is a bust/Trade bait – position. He was the MiLB Player of the Year in 2019. He revamped his swing and, once he learned it and developed the muscle memory, he raked. He put in the work and improved. His stock shouldn’t fall that much because of Pandemic 2020.
2nd base should be his to lose, and he should be given some leeway to adjust. CT3 is not the long term answer at 2nd. He’s needed in the utility role, especially now with Kike gone.
In the competition for bullpen spots, it looks like Vesia is impressing some people. Roberts had some good things to say about him a couple of days ago and now Prior is singing his praises. Almost seems like a spot is his to lose at this point.
AF consistently finds these off the radar gems and when you add the budget he gets to work with no wonder we are such a juggernaut! And can I be the first this year to proclaim the fire Dave Roberts rant!
Does Lux still qualify as a rookie?
No
Still high on Gavin Lux. Sooner or later he breaks through. Tough to judge anyone on 2020.
But Lux is a talent. I think the Dodgers are still very high on him. Like a lot of young players, he needs both seasoning and opportunity. Remember Steve Sax had the yips far worse than Lux. Every throw was an adventure, some landing in the seats. But Sax became a pretty good second baseman.
Good write-up, Jeff.
Good write up Jeff on Lux. I think everyone but the most cynical are rooting for him. I’ve had some questions about him last year during his 40 game stint. Two things really; I don’t love his actions at 2nd that much. He lacks that smooth athletic flow and confidence that I’d like to see. He also appears to show little joy on the field like he beats himself up. That’s just my opinion and I’m not rooting for him to fail. He’s played well before and I hope he finds it in the Show. Just like adding JT with Rios at 3rd, Lux’s success makes things a lot less complicated for the Dodgers. I’m rooting for him.
Spring training single game tickets went on sale yesterday online. Dodger tickets were gone very quickly. Ticket prices have at least doubled on the team site and are thru the roof on the broker sites like Stub Hub and Ticket Club. More on that later.
Tickets are sold in 2,4 and 6 ticket batches. The restricted seats are all zip-ties off and the Berm is marked and assigned.
I don’t know if I can show up on game day and get a single ticket. I doubt it. My friend went to Surprise Stadium yesterday to watch a college tourney; Oregon State and New Mexico. Over the years we’ve had a great time at this tourney. We see old friends, scouts we know, old coaches, all there to kick off the season, catch up and watch some good baseball. It was about $15 in the past to see 2 games a day and watch the Royals and Rangers hit in the cages above the seating if you wanted. My buddy went yesterday by himself. With the 2 ticket rule in affect, he had to buy 2 tickets to get in. He had an assigned seat marked in the grass berm. He was monitored and not allowed to leave the area to visit with scout friends even socially distanced. I was going to go today to see OSU and Gonzaga but I’m not now. I won’t spend $40 to watch a college baseball game.
Yesterday, I bought 4 tickets early online for the White Sox at Dodger’s game. With the added $25 “service charge” it worked out to $48 bucks a ticket. Today with all the tickets sold on the Dodger website, I priced tickets on Stub Hub. The same seats, a section over, are $238.00 a piece. My $193 day would become a $1000 day, at that rate. For a Spring Training game.
Yesterday I also bought 4 tickets for the D-Backs at the White Sox. With the service fee they were $41 each. On Ticket Club today they are $324 each. That would be a $1296 dollar game where 1/4 to 1/2 the starters might play.
Maybe someone here can help me understand how and why these brokers are allowed to buy up all the tickets and sell them for a bloated amount and fees. I know it’s a business but I’d think MLB would want some control over this. It isn’t legal for you and I to resell tickets like that. This is legalize scalping. Spring Training used to be a casual, family friendly event and I’m not covid is the sole reason for the inflated prices.
In past years, I would ride my bike over to the Ranch, and buy a “special” Sunday thru Wednesday game day ticket for $16 bucks. I’d get a Dodger Dog and keep score. Those were the days.
I get it. Covid has changed most everything. There’s forced distancing. Teams lost 1/2 the gate last year. So old $8.00 berm seats are now $20. My $16.00 early week seat is now $42, $37 or $35. Now TIMES 2. It was a tough year for MLB. Now it’s a touch spring for me. I can afford it, but I won’t. So, I will be spending my beautiful Arizona spring days at the pool and watching MLB on TV.
Good article, Phil. Thank you. Regarding Lux and your analysis of him not having the smooth actions at second, does it relate to our discussion some time ago that he is a natural shortstop and has a shorter different throw to first. Just wondering. Even if so, I think he seems to be a hard worker and will overcome this.
DBM – an excellent question and the answer might be yes but I don’t know for sure because I personally haven’t seen him play short. He sometimes looks stiff to me with his movements at second. Maybe it’s unfamiliarity. Maybe it’s the pressure of being a ROY. Maybe it was only 40 games in the bizarre covid season. But so far I don’t see him as a Major League shortstop. IMO
He might do the same at short but he’s apparently found a way in MiLB to get the ball in the air from short which requires him to get his feet in the right place before he receives the ground ball. Feet are everything for an infielder (than the arm to play short) You can get away with having lazier feet at 2nd and take more time with most throws. Getting the ball in the air from short gives him less time to think about the yips as well. But without seeing him play short, I don’t know for sure. Not everybody looks the same but there are a few things like loose hips, movement efficiency and agility that I look for in a shortstop beside good feet and arm..
Great question.
Sorry, I had to answer the door.
Just to add – To me, a big league shortstop should have an easy transition from short to second, once you learn the turns and the different spin on ground balls.
Thank you Phil.
Kershaw not planning to retire after 2021
https://twitter.com/juanctoribio/status/1363594216971132930
Less than a week ago he gave an interview and said he really had no idea what his future holds. Sure didn’t take long for him to make a decision. Must have been just getting out there on the field and with the guys that did it.
Now AF just has to figure out how much of Seager’s money to set aside for Clayton. 🙂
Ian Desmond opted out for the 2021 season.
Frankly, Rockies FO probably breathed a sigh of relief. That frees up $8M they were going to pay to a 4th OF’er.
Mark, I’m getting hungry!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-star-clayton-kershaw-has-no-plans-to-retire-after-2021-i-have-a-few-years-left-in-the-tank/amp/
I never thought for a moment that retirement would even be considered by Clayton. He’s someone who prefers to not have contract negotiations play out in the media. We will hear nothing about an extension until we do and that’s when it is done and over with.
Former Dodger pitcher, Stan Williams passed away on Saturday in Laughlin at the age of 84. Williams pitched for the Dodgers from 1958 to 1962 winning in double figures 3 straight years. He was dealt after the 1962 season to the Yankees for Bill Skowron. Hank Aaron once said of Williams that he was the toughest RHP he ever faced. RIP Stan.
From Wikipedia:
“In the 1962 best-of-three playoff against the San Francisco Giants, Williams was not as successful. In game 2, he blew the save as the Giants tied the game with two runs in the eighth inning, but earned the win when the Dodgers scored in the bottom of the ninth to win 8–7. In the decisive third game, the Dodgers were leading in the top of the ninth 4–2. Williams entered the game with the score 4–3, bases loaded, and one out. Williams gave up a sacrifice fly to Orlando Cepeda that tied the game, then threw a wild pitch and issued an intentional walk that re-loaded the bases. He then walked Jim Davenport to force in what turned out to be the series winning run before he gave way to Ron Perranoski.”
My dad ran the Race Book at Harrah’s in Lake Tahoe at that time and never forgave Williams for costing him so much money (all the bets were coming in for SF). He never liked the Dodgers after that year but it never deterred me from being a lifelong Dodger fan. RIP Mr. Williams.