Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. I am a much bigger fan of college football, and since my Packers are out of it, the lure of the Super Bowl does not hold a huge interest for me. I will undoubtedly watch the game, and I have a lot of family in KC so I will have some allegiance to them. I am not against Tom Brady as much as many I have come across seem to be. I wish Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre had the same level of Super Bowl success.
I think I have started at least three different articles, so forgive me if I continue down the Trevor Bauer pathway. But I get to choose what I want to write about until Mark pulls my keyboard away.☺
The Trevor Bauer signing put a fork into at least two articles. I was in the process of writing that I did not believe AF would exceed the CBT threshold, and yet I believed the Dodgers were still the favorite for the NL pennant. I have previously written that I am continually frustrated with some fans who only believe that Dodgers and Dodger farm hands are good enough. I can understand and respect that level of loyalty, even though I try to be objective with the skill levels of all MiLB players.
However, I am far more frustrated with fans who think only Dodger players have questions. Since the Padres trades for Blake Snell and Yu Darvish the discussions about the gap between the two teams was shrinking. That was fine, because it was undoubtedly true. But then I read the following:
“But even with the staff, we have Kershaw, who got through last season, but is iffy to hold up for a longer one. Buehler, who is our best, but also has some physical issues. Urias, who has not shown yet that he has the stamina to start for an entire season. Price, who did not pitch last year, was injured and ineffective much of 2019. May, who has great potential, but may be a year or two away from consistently being good.”
“If we lose Turner, and do not somehow pick up another top hitter like Ozuna, or a major bullpen piece, most of whom are now gone, I don’t think that we are going to win the pennant, much less the championship. Rios is almost completely unproven. We have almost no platoon depth now. If Bellinger does not go back to hitting .290 or so, if he hits like last year, our lineup is thinner than it should be.”
I appreciate William’s very well thought out premise, however that is a lot of what ifs. Yet those same what ifs do not seem to apply to other teams. Why is that it? Why is it that for some the glass always looks half empty for the Dodgers but that same glass is half full for the other contenders? Never mind it is just a rhetorical interlude.
I guess after 31 years of frustration, skeptics and cynics are bound to come out. Belli did not hit well last season and Muncy hit below the Mendoza line, and yet somehow some way the team went on to a 116 win pace over a 60 game season. Of course some will say that it was only good for 60 games and the pace could not stand up. I contend that Belli and Muncy would have turned it around and the Dodgers would have won 120+ games. Of course they would have continued to believe that Tatis, Jr., Machado, Cronenworth, Myers, Hosmer, and Nola would have continued at their best in their career pace, and that Max Fried, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, and Ian Anderson would have continued at their otherworldly pace.
What a signing of a CY award winner added to a WS champion can do.
First my mea culpa. I was very adamant in my belief that the Dodgers, (a) would not sign Trevor Bauer, and (b), would not significantly exceed the CBT threshold if at all. My money was on NOT AT ALL. But I was wrong. Very wrong. AF obviously has been green lighted to go for whatever he thinks he needs for a repeat. I know the current point of view is that AF is not done. I guess I can speculate as much as anyone, but when it comes to AF, my guesses have not been very good.
If nothing else, AF is very opportunistic. AF said he would keep track of Bauer’s market, and would respond accordingly. Bauer’s market started and came down to NYM vs LAD, as long as Bauer wanted to pitch for the Dodgers. Sure Toronto checked in, but they were never really a possibility. NYY had decided early on they were never going to go beyond the threshold. LAA has way too many boat anchor contracts to be a serious choice. NYM has a good staff and while Bauer would have been an improvement, their need for a CF was much more prevalent. AF has always said that if he could acquire top talent on a short term basis, he would respond. This time it came down to a NYM three year deal for $105MM and the Dodgers three year deal for $102MM that was much more front loaded. In actuality it is a two year $85MM deal, and Bauer betting on himself for an opt out after year two. Yes it is expensive, but it really is an expensive two years, and not an expensive 7 years. If all goes well, the money invested in Bauer this year and next will result in a WS championship, and the return will be more than enough to offset the investment cost.
One year (almost to the day), the Dodgers went big game hunting for the second year in a row, and brought down the game’s top target once again. After LAD spent $365MM on Mookie Betts for 12 years, they followed that up with a 3 year $102MM deal for RHSP Trevor Bauer. He wanted to pitch for the Dodgers, now he is going to get his chance. Some think he is an elite SP who makes the Dodgers starting rotation as good as any in the history of the game, while some believe he is an arrogant egotistical jerk of an inconsistent pitcher, who is going to cause problems in the Dodgers clubhouse. Me, I think he is an arrogant egotistical pitcher who will prove to be both consistent and elite. He is an innings eater, and takes the mound every 6th day, although he would prefer every 5th day. Almost all of his former teammates have been asked what he is like as a teammate, and there have not been any that I have found who will call him a cancer. Even Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco have said that Bauer was a good teammate, even if immature. It appears that his polarization is more from the press and from fans (or non-fans from the Twitter World), than his teammates. I think Mookie and Kershaw, and the Dodgers culture will keep Bauer “in line”.
Right now, without JT, the Dodgers have a projected payroll of $237,743,824 (per Cots Contracts), or $27,743,824 above the 1st Tier of the luxury tax calculation, and $12,256,176 below the 2nd tier. The current luxury tax is $3,467,978. The final arbitration decisions for Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes have yet to be made, so the current contract status is subject to change before any additional player personnel are added.
Will AF now sign JT? I guess that depends just as much on JT as it does with AF. IMO, JT is not going to get a contract with an AAV of more than $12,256,176. I cannot see the Dodgers going past Tier 2, but then again I could not see them going past Tier 1. Kris Bryant’s salary for 2021 is $19,500,000. That would put the Dodgers $7,243,824 over the 2nd tier. That is a lot of a contract to sell off. It is more likely that the Dodgers will go more years for JT with a lower AAV.
Trevor Bauer was a huge signal, and I cannot see AF and the owners not willing to go the extra mile and not signing JT. I do not believe that AF will add another high leverage reliever, such as Trevor Rosenthal or Mark Melancon. The TB signing puts two of May, Gonsolin, and Urias in the bullpen for the season, and all three for the playoffs. I like Urias in the rotation, but I am not in charge of the lineup. Maybe Dustin May starts out in OKC to continue starting, with Urias as the #5. Either way, it appears that Tony Gonsolin is headed to the pen as a potential closer.
Someone mentioned last week that the Dodgers do not have a closer. I beg to differ. I think they have four pitchers more than capable of closing, even if as a committee. KJ has shown that he is more than capable as long as he does not pitch in back to back games. Blake Treinen and Corey Knebel have both been successful closers in previous tours around MLB. Who was Liam Hendriks before Liam Hendriks? Oh yeah, that was Blake Treinen. Maybe last year he started to put it back together again, and this year he returns to his 2018 version. Tony Gonsolin could very well be the best of the bunch. So, no they do not have a single closer, but I think the combo of KJ/Treinen/Knebel/Gonsolin will do just fine. Add Victor Gonzalez and Brusdar Graterol, they have 6 pitchers who will be asked to pitch in late inning high leverage situations. Tell me again, how many other teams have that level of depth?
By investing in a pitcher, the Dodgers are doubling down on run prevention rather than run production. Why not? The Dodgers offense was still at the elite level even with two of their biggest run producers playing well below their career numbers.
I too was totally shocked they signed Bauer. But I will with hold any judgement of his talents until he pitches in games that mean something. I have not seen much of him over the years simply because when I watch games they are usually Dodger games and I do not pay much attention to the rest of the NL. Not until September, when things can get a little dodgy. I doubt AF is done, there are still a lot of useful pieces who are free agents, and he still needs to fill out the AAA roster. I believe Turner will be back, maybe a 2 with an option for the 3rd. Justin deserves to retire a Dodger.
Well he was pretty special against a very good Atlanta offense last year in October!
I agree with what you said here and I also have to admit I was totally wrong about the chances of signing Bauer. I have also been wrong about the Justin Turner situation since I said they were not announcing anything because they didn’t have room on the 40 man, yet it seems they have made a deal w Bauer. Could that be because they might have lost Bauer if they didn’t act while knowing they already had an agreement with JT?
Now it seems to me that adding a yr or two onto a contract for JT seems smart to keep his aav lower. And there still isn’t room on the 40 man either until spring training, a trade or just releasing someone.
I know it’s not my money but I would like to see a trade to lower the payroll. Maybe I just want to see them be winners without buying it.
Not me, buy that ring! Ring, ring, ring and ring some more. Spread that money around and be remembered in history. Don’t build a great team, build a great dynasty. Don’t be the Yankees west. Let them be the Dodgers east.
Not a good recipe for continued success. Dodgers had #1 payroll for 2013-2017 and got to the WS one time…did not win.
The 2018 Boston Red Sox are the only team with the highest payroll going back to at least 2010 to have won the WS, and only twice has the team with the highest payroll even been in the WS.
2010 – Giants (#11 payroll) over Rangers (#22)
2011 – Cardinals (#11) over Rangers (#13)
2012 – Giants (#6) over Tigers (#8)
2013 – Boston (#3) over Cardinals (#12)
2014 – Giants (#7) over Royals (#19)
2015 – Royals (#17) over Mets (#21)
2016 – Cubs (#6) over Indians (#22)
2017 – Assterisks (#18) over Dodgers (#1)
2018 – Boston (#1) over Dodgers (#4)
2019 – Nationals (#4) over Assterisks (#8)
2020 – Dodgers (#5) over Tampa Bay (#27)
I was wrong. Dodgers signed Bauer because he was willing to sign for essentially a two year deal. I had no idea he would agree to such a short term deal, except no team was willing to give him a long term deal. Enter AF. He took advantage. That is who he is.
Does signing Bauer guarantee the Dodgers the WS? Not if you look at past records of teams getting to and winning the WS. It certainly does not hurt the Dodgers chances. I thought the Dodgers were the best team in MLB before Bauer.
Past performance isn’t indicative of future performance. Signing the best player in the league doesn’t guarantee anything, ask the Angels about that. But, having more great players than your competition sure helps doesn’t it?
The list doesn’t show too much except there are more teams that spend in the top 50% than there are that spend in the bottom 50%. Yes, some poor teams have the stars align, but I don’t see any 30’s on that list, but I do see two 1’s a 3’s and a couple of 4’s. Curiously, there isn’t any 2’s. I guess that means that it doesn’t pay to spend the second most money in the league.
The comment I made was less about outspending everyone always than it was about not feeling guilty for buying a ring. It was meant to be funny, not necessarily serious.
I get it. A lot of people like to talk about the CBT. I don’t really care much about it since it isn’t my money. I just want to see a great team with a great chance to bring home a ring.
I really thought the Dodgers were driving the price up on the Mets and the Mets would get Bauer. No way they sign Bauer. I am happy that the Dodgers signed him. Now he has to perform to make it worth it. Bauer appears to have been persistent in seeking the Dodgers so if true I am even happier.
I believe AF will move Kelley to get him off the books and provide space if needed for Turner. I am suggesting they will trade him for a decent prospect. The Dodgers will pay his salary but lower the team aav by 8 million plus. Would that work to reduce the cbt line? The Dodgers did it with maeda the cards with Fowler. I don’t think any team will take on Kelly’s contract but they might take him for free.
Sorry Ten, but if the Dodgers pay Kelly’s salary it doesn’t reduce their CBT hit.
Okay thanks for clearing that up. I thought that if a player was traded and off the roster it would count for the other team.
Why are you frustrated with people with opinions that are variance with rosy scenarios? One person’s pessimist is another person’s realist. I think that’s all that William was doing there.
You object because you’re A FAN. As a fan, we have faith. It is all rainbows and unicorns with respect the prospects for our Dodgers doing well and winning the world series every year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhMqjHEDmcU&list=RDQM14QmKKDO8nI&start_radio=1
It’s why Jorge rails against his hated Padres. Bless him for that, but I’m not going to deny that the Pods got really really good – and they were already really really good last year.
I don’t know that what William said was wrong. What he said about Kershaw is absolutely true. Driveline can’t rewrite his birth certificate. He’s getting older and he’s had a history of back problems. Felix Hernandez was considered the AL equivalent of Kershaw and they are contemporaries, but King Felix is basically done. I have confidence that he’ll continue to be a good pitcher, but he’s not the ace anymore. Buehler (the Dodgers Nation YouTube guy calls him Buehtane, which I think is a great nickhame) has had issues with blisters and not being ready to pitch when the season starts, and Urias does run out of gas after about 4-5 innings.
It’s true, Price is 34, hasn’t pitched in over a year, and was on a downward trajectory when the Dodgers acquired him. I personally think he’s capable of having a bounceback year and putting of a solid ERA of between 2.75-3.5 pitching at Dodger Stadium, I think Kershaw and Buehtane will put up solid years, and I think Urias can step into the role of workhorse starting pitcher, but none of these things are sure bets. I think the Bauer signing is a way to hedge those bets. What the Dodgers could rely on the last few years was their depth when the had Hill, Maeda and Ryu. With those guys gone, the Dodgers are an injury or two away from being thin at starting pitching. Bauer gives them some insurance in case that happens and makes them a juggernaut if everything turns out rosy.
I don’t mind takes I don’t agree with so long as they’re good takes. I get tired of short-sighted or repetitive ones. Fortunately, the success AF has had has finally shut most of them up, but I can’t help but look back at the wailing over the Puig trade and how AF “gave him away for nothing!” Meanwhile, we have Josiah Gray as our top prospect and Puig is in his physical prime and can’t get a job. The Reds got snookered, and AF has done that multiple times.
I don’t think Jeff was disputing William’s analysis of the potential downsides on our roster. His problem was that William didn’t do the same downside analysis for the Padres.
If you’re going to talk about all the bad stuff that could happen to us, you can’t ignore that bad things could happen to Padre players as well. It needs to be a complete comparison.
Correct.
No, what William said was right. It is the same points I have been making as well. But at the same time, I also look at the Padres questions.
Dinelson Lamet was hurt at the end of last season. Isn’t he iffy to pitch as effective as he did in 2020 pre-injury? Yu Darvish – Is it any wonder that the top two NL CY votes season pitched in the weakest offensive division in all of MLB. Based on OPS, Reds were #19, Cubs #21, Brewers #24, Cardinals #26, and Pirates #30. Blake Snell – Is about as inconsistent of a starting pitcher as there is. Is he the 4.29 ERA pitcher or the 1.89 ERA pitcher? Joe Musgrove – How much improvement can we expect from a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.33 and a career WHIP of 1.232? Chris Paddack – Some Dodger fans want to dismiss Urias, May, and Gonsolin, but we are supposed to believe that Chris Paddack is more qualified?
How I look at it is if all of the players play to their best ability, who comes out on top. IMO, if the Dodger pitchers pitch to their best, and the Padres pitchers to their best, the Dodgers starting pitching is better. Both teams have questions. It is the team that is best equipped to answer those questions that usually comes out on top. And I believe that is the Dodgers. BTW, I do believe that William believes that as well. William is one of the most articulate and thought provoking opinion writers on this site. I like to respond to him.
Even though I wanted to upgrade 3B, I always felt that JT made too much sense especially with Hoese’s projected timeline. I’m more confident that it will get done than I was about a Bauer signing. As with all of the big free agents for the last couple of years, I always thought there was a chance. But, that chance had to be on Andrew’s terms.
This contract shows that the Dodgers are not afraid to spend money on the right deal. A lot of ink has been spilled about Bauer not being worth 40 and 45 million a year. I beg to differ. It was speculated that Mookie was gonna get a $400 million dollar contract. That’s 40 million a year for 10 years or any number of computations to get to that final number. AF pulled the trigger on Mookie for merely $30 Million AAV. He perceived this as a good deal for a generational type player and under market value for the one of the game’s top talents.
This contract also shows that the rumors of Bryce Harper on a short and high AAV deal were probably more than just rumors. Bryce wanted a deal where he could set up shop and not have to move again. That’s his prerogative and it worked out for us in that we wound up with a better fit in Mookie and have a ring to show for it. If Bryce wanted a higher AAV and play for the Dodgers, it would have happened.
Now, I can hardly believe my eyes as it relates to this team. I honestly think this could very well be the best pitching staff top to bottom that’s ever been assembled. I’m not one of the guys who things we don’t have a closer. I’m the guy that thinks we have many and I’m irrationally optimistic about Jansen being capable again. I also think that Kelly can be good in his role and that Knebel will be healthy and Treinen will build further on last year’s comeback. I believe we have too many good bullpen pieces to fit on the roster all at once, just like we have too many quality starters to be in the rotation at once. If not the best, it is definitely the deepest pitching staff ever assembled.
Beyond talent and depth, this pitching staff is chock full of big game pitchers. Urias showed he has ice in his veins during last year’s postseason. Price dominated us in the ’18 WS. Bueller put on his Mad-Bum impression in the post-season last year while pitching with a bloody finger and Bauer shut out the Braves in his only post season appearance last year. Clayton was very good, but his time to shine is every year during the regular season. This staff is built to dominate the post season. While other teams will try to lineup their pitchers for the post-season next year, the Dodgers can practically let the cards fall as they may because they only have elite options.
I just can’t find the words to properly express how exited I am about this staff.
Now, can you imagine a post season bullpen with Jansen, Treinen, Knebel, V-Gone, Graterol, Urias, Morrow and Kahnle? STFU! That’s almost as ridiculous as the rotation. You can bring up the AAA position players and compete with this staff. This is just unfair. What a difference an Ace makes.
I know the pen might not look like this at the end of the year, but the possibility exists. I just can’t wait for the season to start.
Jorge, this is for you…
https://am570lasports.iheart.com/content/2021-02-06-theater-trolls-the-san-diego-padres-over-trevor-bauer-signing-with-dodgers/?src=rss
I loved it… Fuck those asshole clowns!
Thanks Bulldog, that picture is my new Facebook cover…
LOL – That’s great!
Once again AF is playing chess while we’re all……. And if we’re trading Kelly to get under Tier 2 we will be giving up a good prospect not getting one back. I know most of us have lost faith in Kenley as our closer but he did have the lowest hard hit rate, 14%, of pitchers in mlb last year. If he can regain his command then that’s a huge boost to our pen. Going into any season question marks remain for every team. Maybe the only sure thing we have is Mookie. That’s why we play 162. Injuries and underperformance. That’s why depth is so important and AF has created an organization where our depth of talent is the best in baseball.
Interesting hard hit stat on Kenley. His 2020 ERA was 3.33 and WHIP was 1.15 in 24 innings. But both were heavily impacted by one terrible outing against the Astros. Without that one outing, his ERA was 1.49, and his WHIP was 0.91. Of course, no excuse for his terrible performance, but in a short season, this one outing had a big impact on his stats. Kenley is not nearly the pitcher he was previously, and should not be the automatic closer, but he still may be an effective reliever this year. Maybe wishful thinking by me, but reliever performance is definitely volatile from season to season.
Well, Jeff, you can add me to the list of people who were surprised, shocked, stunned, and all of the other adjectives. Like you, I thought that AF wouldn’t cross the CBT rubicon. I also thought that TB wouldn’t fit in with the Dodgers’ clubhouse culture. But as I said recently, the only thing that we know is that we know nothing.
Here are a few things that I have taken away from the TB signing:
1. AF is a great poker player. He doesn’t seem to have any tells. Compare that to the Mets’ new owner, who, to excite the fan base, signalled that he was ready to spend BIG MONEY. But it was AF who won the TB sweepstakes, not Cohen. Maybe AF is playing poker at a different level.
2. Success breeds success. Winning a WS, and a winning team culture, is going to be an incentive for many top players, for whom money isn’t the only thing.
3. As for many of us, the day-to-day work environment is important to players. When I read Joc’s goodbye article, I was struck by how much certain acts of decency and caring meant to him: letting Champ fly on the team plane, having a plane ready when his wife gave birth, etc. These things matter and are remembered. Who wouldn’t want to belong to an organization that actually cared about them?
4. AF builds for depth. We already knew that, but suddenly, the TB signing made the starting rotation – deep already – even deeper, making some of those pitchers available for the bullpen or swing roles.
5. Expect more out of the box thinking. After Mookie last year and now TB, anything is possible. I personally think that AF is likely to trade Joe Kelley and make room to resign JT. But who knows? I wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last surprise we have in store for us!
While I thought the Dodgers might sign Bauer I never thought there was a chance that they would give him the money they gave him.
I want the Dodgers to trade for Chapman. Time to move on from older players like Turner.
Well, I thought there was a possibility the Dodgers would sign Trevor Bauer. So, not totally surprised. But he obviously wanted to be in SoCal. The deal is a far better one for the Dodgers than Cole, which could create an anchor around a club, if it goes south.
The contract with Bauer makes some sense, considering all the dead contracts around baseball. Probably the way teams should do business in the future, especially when it comes to pitchers. I don’t expect that to happen, most players want a Mookie Betts or Cole type deal.
Since a lot of money comes off the books in the next couple of years, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape moving forward, not sure they have to move any contracts to sign Turner. The tax doesn’t amount to much. Doesn’t mean they won’t move someone.
I’m guessing they lost revenue in 2020, but they didn’t lose “money”, the difference between revenue and actual expenditures, mainly because of the enormous TV contract they have.
Was the signing of Bauer a reaction to what the Padres were doing? Perhaps, but to a smaller degree than some suspect. Probably had more to do with opportunity. How many times have we heard Andrew Friedman utter those words — being opportunistic and all.
Opportunity appeared and the Dodgers pounced.
I believe the Dodgers will reach an agreement with Turner in the next few days, Maybe they already have. Other options not very exciting. Plus Dave Roberts continues to say at every opportunity he wants Justin back.
Welcome Trevor Bauer. You have joined a world-class organization and am so glad you wanted to play with us. My Packers lost too, but as I have 2 daughters in Tampa, will join them in cheering on the Tampa team. I like Tom Brady, but Bart Starr will always be my favorite quarterback.
I can’t believe that so many of you were shocked by the Bauer signing.
I knew it was happening all along. In one of his interviews about a month ago, he wiped his right brow after touching his left elbow and that was the signal.
I’m fascinated to see how he fits into the clubhouse and I really hope it goes smoothly. I think Trevor will do fine with the young pitchers and am really hoping he’ll find something that helps Graterol increase his k rate.
My question is how will he and Kersh get along. Although they both have a great work ethic, their personalities seem exact opposites to me. Three possibilities as I see it:
1) Become best friends
2) Steer clear of each other
3) Total breakdown of the clubhouse with players choosing sides
We could survive anything but #3 and because of my high esteem for AF, I’m assuming he’s quite confident of that not happening.
Greinke and Kershaw had different personalities as well and they got along just fine. I think if there is going to be a personality clash it will probably be between Roberts and Bauer.
Kershaw never wanted to come out of a game and until last year, Roberts gave into that when he shouldn’t have. He will be challenged by Bauer every time he goes to the mound.
Also, it has always been my belief that the reason the Dodgers traded AJ Ellis was because his game plan differed too often with Honycutt’s. It’s one thing for Bauer to have his own physical preparation routine and another if he won’t accept the coaches game plan.
Excellent article, Jeff!
Good breakdown of the CBT situation, and hopefully there is still room to sign JT and still stay below the Tier 2 level of $250 million. It would seem feasible to offer JT a front loaded 3 or 4 year contract similar to the structure of Bauer, but with much less $.
Maybe a 3 yr deal for a total of $33 million guaranteed with $15 million first year, $13 million in year 2, and $5 million in year 3. With a player opt out after year 2. The AAV of $11 million fits under Tier 2, and JT earns $28 million in the next 2 years, with the right to opt out after year 2 if he is still healthy and producing.
This contract seems reasonable to me with DJL signing for $15 million AAV, Ozuna for $16 million AAV, and Nelson Cruz signing one year deal for $13 million. Interestingly, rumors were that Friedman had discussions with all three of these FA before they signed.
Hopefully, JT is onboard soon!
I don’t think Bauer is going to destroy the clubhouse and I don’t care if he’s CK’s buddy or not. I’m excited to have him. He may not pitch to a sub 2 or even a sub 3 ERA next year, but he’s an innings eater that’s capable of winning games when the team isn’t hitting much. He’s gonna piss people off and he’s gonna get people pumped up. He’s gonna say some stupid stuff on Social Media and he’s going to generate more interest in the team as well. He’s not going to come in here, to the team he grew up rooting for, and start a turf war with the living legend that is Clayton Kershaw. I repeat, he’s not going to start crap with the legend that he rooted for when he was in high school and college imagining one day he would be a major leaguer playing for his home team.
I can’t see a scenario where JT doesn’t come back. They kicked the tires on all the trade candidates. It looks like the Cubbies think they can win the division with the core team that won them a World Series one more time, so they’re keeping Bryant at least until the trade deadline. The Rockies stupidly took a crappier deal rather than entertain an offer from the Dodgers. The Indians and Reds don’t have to trade their cheap and productive third baseman just yet and DJLM wanted to play for the Yankees.
JT’s the last man standing and no one gave him an offer that would convince him to leave. AF is going to underpay him a little and JT’s gonna take it because he would rather stay home and win another World Series and be on top of all the Dodgers post season hitting records rather than move his family for a few million more. AF is going to use the same tactic next year to sign Clayton for less than his value because he knows he can.
Don’t worry, JT is a done deal and you don’t have to worry about what level of penalties they will be hit with as it relates to the CBT. The price of hotdogs and beer is set at the market rate and supply and demand. The more tickets they sell, the higher prices they charge which in turn allows them to spend more on payroll, scouting, analytics and player development, not the other way around. This allows them to turn late round picks into productive major leaguers, which in turn allows them to trade for, or sign as free agents the tippy top of the talent pool to augment the core of home grown talent.
The respect that I have for Mark & Jeff’s Baseball knowledge and opinions had begun to turn my thoughts away from what I believed AF would do after our WS win – improve us again and make us better.
However, I’m so pleased that he has secured another Ace, and in doing so freshened things up, and challenged everyone to not rest on their laurels.
I totally agreed with Michael’s well presented post. Lots of questions, like every other team. We don’t support them though. Just the Dodgers.
We also need to stop fixating on costs – let AF and Guggenheim do that. They have created this juggernaut – let them drive it.
If there’s more deals to be done that will help us, not just now, but next year as well, then be sure he’ll do them.
Bauer has never pitched for a club the size of the Dodgers. He will be fine. He will want to show the world what he can do, and will embrace it.
I have a lot more tolerance for a person being a jerk if they happen to be on my team. It didn’t bother me that much when Machado was a jerk at times when he was a Dodger. But now he’s a Padre I think he is a giant a-hole (right Jorge?).
So if other teams and their fans don’t like Bauer – that might make me like him more.
I wholeheartedly agree with that assessment. I loved Kobe. He was an a-hole, but he was our a-hole. I hated LeBron, now I tolerate him. He will never be Kobe status, because he wasn’t our own from the beginning. But, I don’t hate him like I used to.
No news on the Turner front yet. But it is Stupor Bowl Sunday so most peoples focus is there. Not me, I like Mark enjoy the college game more than the pros. Speaking of football, former USC and NFL player Mike Henry died at the age of 84. He also had a career as an actor. Actually played Tarzan, and was in Burt Reynolds “The Longest Yard” which also featured Ray Nitschke and Joe Kapp, and he was in “The Green Berets ” with John Wayne. I also read that the Dodgers had made a 2 year offer to Ozuna. No definitive word on the DH yet.
If they implement the DH now, Manfred is a total tool giving a distinct advantage to AL clubs.
Even if they don’t implement it, he is still a total tool!
He is a tool no matter what happens. The guy is one of the weakest Commissioners in baseball history. He left his cojones somewhere else that is for sure.
Me you MT and Bauer all agree about Manfred being a tool. And I find it refreshing for a player to call him out. That’s a check in the “Pros” column for Bauer.
Reds signed Dee Gordon to a minor league deal. Juan Ligares signs a minor league deal with the Angels, and Albert Almora signed a deal with the Mets.
We all love Justin Turner, but I also think that the dodgers do not owe JT anything and vice versa, both parties did the right thing, the team gave him the opportunity of a lifetime and JT reciprocated 100% but it was time to close the story .
I don’t want the same thing to happen to the team that happened to the Phillies than out of gratitude, etc., after a binge of joy at winning a WS he gave big contracts to Howard, Rollins and Utley and then they became a very burden heavy.
Time to move on, go get a new player or give Rios until July to see if he can handle the job.
Prediction:
KC – 35
TB -38
Prediction for 2021:
Turner plays for the Brewers
Chapman plays third for the Dodgers.
Rios, Ruiz, and May play for the A’s.
Nope! Turner to sign with us this week.
Bum, of all your predictions throughout the years, I think I like this one the best.
Also, I enjoy reading your website/blog.
That’s a damn interesting trade.
In reply to Jeff’s polite comments, I will just say that I am much more inclined to write about the Dodgers than the other teams. When I was a boy, there were less teams, and I wanted to learn as much as I could about them. And I had my baseball cards, from which I could virtually learn every team’s roster, and the past statistics of the players. I can well remember, for example, the Giants’ perennial search for a lefthanded starter; Ray Sadecki and Joe Gibbon come to mind. I did not want the Giants to get a LH starter! But as it turned out, none of them did that much for them, and it was their righthanded starters who were their best. Anyway, I would study all the teams, and wonder whom they would pick up in the offseason, and how it would affect the Dodgers.
I don’t do that any more, not that I don’t want to try to assess all of the teams,, or even all of the rivals, such as SD, ATL, SL, NYM for now.. But then I am not intending to write a major media piece assessing the various teams. I focus on the Dodgers, though of course everything is comparative in sports. I will never write many paragraphs on the strengths and weaknesses of the Padres or Braves. Both are rising powers, the Braves came very close to winning the pennant last year, and they should be better this year; the re-signing of Ozuna still keeps them with likely the best lineup threesome in baseball, along with Acuna and Freeman. Even before Ozuna signed, I respected the Braves; and we all know what the Padres have done with regard to pickups. So it looked to me that if the Dodgers basically stood pat, as was the case that far, they were in some trouble; and that their pitching staff, while respected, still had some “ifs,” to be concerned about. I am more likely to focus on the concerns, while others understandably like to focus on the pluses. But after all, we had gone 31 years without a title, which I thought was rather disgraceful, given our locale and more recent funding. And I have wondered how strong was ownership’ s commitment to winning titles; and when we finally got one, would they be satisfied with that for several years?
The signing of Bauer puts an upbeat take on this. I will concede something that J.P. Hoonstra wrote on the day of the signing, that the Dodgers did not actually “flip the script,” as he termed it; they did what they have been doing: trying to get a very meaningful player, if they could get him on their terms. They tried with Harper and of course Cole. They don’t like to do long-term contracts, though they offered Cole one. With Bauer, they essentially have him for two years; if healthy and proficient, he will certainly not stay to get $17 million in the third year. In fact, some writer pointed out that he could theoretically leave after one year, because his next two years would net him $62 million, so that if he had a great season this year, he could take a longer-term deal with some club, say, four years for $140 million. I don’t like the opt-out clause; that is how we lost Greinke, because rather than give him the seven-year deal he wanted, we settled for six with the opt-out, which he took. Well, maybe Bauer would not have signed without it, though I think we could have worked out an opt-out after two seasons, not one.
In any event, we have a formidable team, much better than it looked a week ago, and it will be exciting. I do think that we need to sign Turner, who will give us the crucial righthanded bat i the middle of the lineup, and who is a steadying force. Sign Turner, and any other moves we make will be bonus gifts. We all want the Dodgers to be a major contender every year, if possible,and not to let the Padres take the commanding role in our division, which would force us to play various playoff series starting on the road. So one key signing turned all of this around, though I know that others here liked our chances next year even without Bauer.
I think most of us agree that the Dodgers would likely make it to the NLCS without Bauer. It may very well be that the most important aspect of this deal is to deny the Mets a key ace starter to put up against the Dodgers in the NLCS.
I don’t think about the Mets.
The Padres are and always will be a small market team, AF is motivating them to spend themselves to poverty
Shocking:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30857724/espn-baseball-reporter-pedro-gomez-dies-58
Bucs owned the Chiefs. Brady wins his 7th ring and 5th super bowl MVP. RIP Pedro Gomez who died suddenly at 58 on Sunday. His kid is in the Red Sox organization.