2021 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects

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1. This is the most difficult offseason to rank players (ever) because there was no minor league season last year. I have no clue if any of the rankings are right, but my gut feeling is that we have no clue. We shall see where this all falls, but I have high hopes for this 2021 crop of prospects.

2. I would have to agree with Mark as to how difficult it is to evaluate when all of the minor league systems were shut down. And now teams are working with a different minor league system altogether. The Dodgers have benefited over the last few seasons from the kids that they have had in the system. And last season was no exception. 2019, they got production from Beaty that no one expected. Very few of the call ups have not contributed in some way or another. Even Ruiz who homered in his first MLB at bat. If memory serves, Mitch White pitched 3 innings in 2 games and got his first major league win against the Rockies. He also pitched an inning against the Rangers. So he got his first cup o coffee and did pretty well. We may not get the top picks in the draft, but Gasparino seems to have a pretty good idea of who he wants and feels the team can sign. I am looking forward to seeing Gray pitch. Hopefully the others get some AB’s in the spring.

   1. Bear like you said I myself looking forward to seeing Gray pitchthis spring, I know I am ahead of the game but I see another Bob Gibson in Gray.

      1. Now that is being a fan. Comparing a pitcher whose consensus ceiling is as a #3 SP to a HOF pitcher. That really is ahead of the crowd on Gray.☺

3. Love the intelligent prospect talk. We have a deep and varied system. Probably our biggest weakness–aside from LHP–is major league ready dudes. But we’re pretty loaded so that’s not a major issue.

4. Thank you, AC, for the blurb about Joc’s contributions behind the scenes in his support of RJ. One of Joc’s endearing qualities to me besides being a good team mate, was his love, care and support of his brother, Champ. Enjoyed and appreciated it, AC.

   1. DBM, I have always maintained that I am indifferent when it comes to Joc as a baseball player. However, that is not true when it comes to valuing him as a human being. I have always been a Joc Pederson fan when it comes to how he treats others, especially those with disabilities. On Christmas Eve 2017, I wrote the article below on Joc. It seems very poignant today since I compared his numbers to Kyle Schwarber, the LF he is going to replace this year in Chicago. But it also points to his relationship with his brother Champ and how that may have influenced his approach to the “game” of baseball. At the bottom of the article, it refers to another article that you might find very enlightening.

      https://ladodgertalk.com/2017/12/24/why-the-rush-to-trade-joc/

      1. I read the article from 2017 and enjoyed it, AC. Thanks. Nice to read the comments. Interesting comparison between Joc and Schwarber.

      2. I agree with you completely, Jeff. I have a ton of respect for Joc. His relationship with Champ is special. I enjoyed reading your 2017 article, which I hadn’t seen before. A very impressive young man at 26 to give of his time in that way. You can see that it comes from the heart. As a player, he was always an enigma to me. Remember the thousand times when he changed his batting stance? But he always showed up in October and for his brother. That’s what I’ll remember him for. I wish him good luck in Chicago. Sometimes people need a change of scenary. Witness Ryu and Maeda! Maybe if Joc gets to play every day we’ll see less of those splits. In any case, he deserves a chance.

5. Not only a lot of great ball players in Dodger clubhouse but also a lot of great people! It’s easy to root for these guys! We will miss you Joc

   1. The Dodger front office seems to value character more so than many other front offices do. They have managed to rid the clubhouse of all the “characters.” This is why I find all the Trevor Bauer talk so implausible. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see the front office spending a boatload of money to bring a character into a clubhouse full of players with character.

      1. Word!

6. A valuation is set at a specific point in time. Why is that so hard to comprehend? Player A was rated over Player B before the pandemic, and without a season, why should Player A not continue to be rated above Player B? Except that for the Dodgers, Michael Busch leaped over Kody Hoese because of what these talent evaluators saw at the Arizona Instructionals. Michael Busch moved into the top 100. How could that be? Because he was seen. His development advances were noticed.

   Why is Andy Pages moving up and Luis Rodriguez moving down? Why is Jake Amaya all of sudden getting acclaim? Because the talent evaluators spent an enormous amount of time reviewing video of players at the secondary site, talking with the coaches and instructors to learn how the player was adapting to their perceived weaknesses. Where did he grow? How did the talent evaluators learn about Busch’s progress as a 2B? They did not see the same progress in Kody Hoese. Does that mean that Kody cannot make the jump in 2021? Of course not. Diego Cartaya moved up in the talent evaluators eyes and is getting closer to Keibert Ruiz in their opinion. Some believe that 2021 is a critical year for Ruiz. If he does not play much MLB this year, many of those evaluators have said that Cartaya could move to the top of not just the Dodgers catchers, but for the entire Dodgers prospect list. Are they right? Who knows.

   Why did Keith Law rate Miguel Vargas higher than Kody Hoese? Is Keith Law correct? Or is he a moron? He is not a moron, but he may not agree with some of Kody’s fans. Or maybe Law believes that Vargas being two years younger and more successful at High A than Kody was a low A, made the leap that Vargas has more helium than does Hoese. That may turn around this summer. Changes are always made at the mid-season point.

   It is a top 100, not top 500. It ranks the elites. Almost every one of the Top 100 players were either playing in MLB, or at the secondary site, and many at the Instructional Leagues. They did get some developmental work, but they were seen.

   Of course some players will emerge this season who were not on the pre-season list. But that happens EVERY YEAR. Player evaluation is not science. It is sheer conjecture based on experience that the talent evaluator has accumulated watching countless hours of baseball games and practices, and talking to teams personnel. Talent evaluation is determined based on specific skill sets, not necessarily how that translates to games. Those skills are valued to determine their future status as a ML player. Sometimes the skills positively translate and sometimes they do not. Some players are gamers, and some are not. Skill sets are fluid, not static. The pandemic did not change that. Skills develop at different rates for each player. Pandemic or not.

   What I think frustrates me as a fan, is reading from some that are so gung-ho on the eight years of elite MiLB development the Dodgers enjoyed, and how brilliant the Dodgers were in establishing that elite status. But once those elite prospects either graduate to MLB or fall out, and the next tier is not yet there, and the Dodgers system is downgraded AT THAT TIME, it is because of the pandemic. Dodgers MiLB system was not downgraded because they did not play games last summer. The evaluators did not think the Dodgers developed faster than other organizations to overtake the other 29 teams top prospects. That is how they see it in January 2021. How they see it in August 2021 will be different, just like every January to August comparison.

7. Dustin Pedroia announced his retirement. Loved his gritty play. Angels talking with the Orioles about Alex Cobb. My take is that prospects are always suspects until they aren’t. The Dodgers have graduated a lot of players to the bigs. Some got traded, others have made thier mark in LA. There are few MLB ready guys in the system right now. A couple are close, Ruiz and Gray. Busch seems to be on the fast track. Hopefully all those guys get to play a full or close to full season. Problem I see is that the animosity between ownership and the players is flaring up again. Neither side wants to compromise much. And that part of the game is getting old really fast.

8. The Dodgers lost another key front office person in Raul Ibanez to MLB. Per SNY’s Andy Martino:

   “MLB is hiring former big league outfielder Raul Ibanez to work with on-field operations. He’ll also have a VP title, and he’ll bring a more player-focused perspective that the league lost when Young took his post with the Rangers. The 48-year-old Ibanez retired after the 2014 season and enjoyed a very strong 19-year career in the Majors, during which time he hit .272/.335/.465 with 305 home runs. Ibanez had been working as a special assistant with the Dodgers’ front office prior to accepting his new role.”

9. Can someone explain to me the MLBPA thinking? Seems to me what MLB is presenting makes perfect sense. Full pay for 154 games and expanded playoffs is good for everybody. Everyone wants the DH, make it happen. A delay sounds smart to me. We have no idea what is about to happen with the introduction of variants but the people who are paid to know this stuff are all saying “stand by”. This year’s first 60 games is likely to look very much like last year.

   Prospects. More information now than ever before but the same level of “who knows?” No guarantees on any of them but better odds on the Top 50.

   1. There are two key reasons that MLBPA may contest the offer to postpone the start of the 2021 season and to shorten the schedule to a 154 game schedule. The first is that they do not trust Rob Manfred and the owners. Under the proposal, Manfred can suspend games and pay under certain conditions. The Union believes those powers are too broad.

      • Government restrictions prevent more than five clubs from staging games in their home ballparks (even without fans in attendance).
      • Government restrictions prevent or materially restrict travel by clubs within the United States.
      • Manfred determines, after consultation with recognized medical experts and the union, that staging those games poses an unreasonable health and safety risk to players or staff.
      • The number of players who are unavailable to perform because of COVID-19 is such that the competitive integrity of the season is undermined.

      The Union wants a deal guaranteeing full pay. In their estimation, they already have it. Why give it up? Right now they have a 162 game season with full pay starting April 1, with 6 weeks of ST. The only way this does not happen is if the Owners lock the players out of ST camp. But that would breach the current CBA. If the owners want to push this issue, this is going to end up in court.

      Who are these recognized medical experts? The ones Manfred chooses? As it is written, the policy would be to consult the Union. The Union remembers all too well what happened last year when they ceded their rights. Consultation became mandate. They are not going that route again. If I am an officer of the MLBPA, I see this as a way of cancelling games and not paying the players. I do not trust the owners. Under the current CBA, the owners do not have the power to unilaterally change the length of the season.

      The second reason, the Union does not want expanded playoffs. The owners of course do. The reasons that the Union opposes expanded playoffs:

      ● It will reduce club spending by disincentivizing competition.
      ● They believe it cheapens the regular season.
      ● It will result in additional physical wear and tear.
      ● The Union knows this is what the Owners really want, and the Union has the leverage. Why should they give that up? Universal DH? In the big picture, not a big deal to the Union.

      1. Thank you. A lot of useful information there.

         I don’t agree with the unions take on a few of those points. My take? STFU, play ball and be grateful.

         1. Great info Jeff regarding the Union position on the offer from MLB.
            And I agree with Badger’s position.

         2. I think that is what the players are saying. Let’s play ball. They are planning to report to ST mid February, for an April 1 opening day. Now it is up to the owners. If they want to push it back 30 days, I think the players would agree if the owners guaranteed their 162 game salary. I guess I just do not understand the concept of why the players should unilaterally give up what they won through a tough collective bargaining process, ratified by the owners. It is the owners that want to change the CBA, not the players. I am not on the players side or owners side. I believe in the process, and if there is an agreement, it needs to be honored. Both sides need to ratify any change to that Agreement. Owners want to change it, the players do not. It is simple for me. But maybe I am simple minded.

            1. Things are clearly different now. I don’t think MLB is being unreasonable. We’re going to wait until it’s safer (maybe), we are going to see to it you get paid, expanded playoffs is a good thing for everybody. This looks extremely petty to the millions that are out of work.

               Let’s hope the new vaccination program is effective and we can put this nightmare behind us.

10. From what I’ve heard, the players are fine with the “we’ll pay you for 162 and you only play 154” Their concern is that Manfred has sole discretion to eliminate any number of games he wants to because of Covid and they don’t want to get less pay if they play fewer than 154.

    They’re concerned that MLB will look for reasons to eliminate games until fans get back in the stands. I have no opinion on that but this is what the players seem to be concerned about, at least as far as that part of the proposal.

11. Mets and Angels both signed starting pitchers today. Why do that if you’re going to sign Bauer. He is there for the taking if AF wants to strike. Does anyone else want him?

    1. I do not think that trading for Jordan Yamamoto changes the Mets desire to sign Bauer. I still think he ends up a Met.

    2. Mets

12. Kershaw
    Buehler
    Price
    Urias
    May
    Gonsolin

    This might be my favorite rotation ever heading into a season. White is depth. Gray is next man up.

    Bring it on.

13. One piece of breaking news I would love to read is” Dodgers retiring #14 in memory of Gil Hodges”.

    1. I totally agree with that, and Gil belongs in the hall.

       1. You know what? I agree with RF and Bear. I think retiring #14 Will be a little easier than getting Gil in the HOF. 🙂

          1. I should think both should have been done already. Only number retired for a player not in the Hall is Gilliam’s . But he was a career Dodger. I think the fact that Hodges is not in the hall is a travesty anyway. As good of numbers except RBI’s as Perez in a shorter career. Just has never sat right with me.

14. The lack play in the minors last year adds to the lack of credibility in evaluating the strength of organizations now. To me it’s about as accurate as rating the 2022 Heisman winner. And the Mariners rank 4 or 5? When the Mariners win a playoff game, I will kiss a fat lady’s ass.

    Where did I read today the idea that the Dodgers trade Ruiz and Gray to the Rays for Willie Adamas, who plays 2nd, 3rd if JT isn’t signed and could move to short next year if we don’t sign Seager?

    1. THAT is a bad idea!

    2. Not sure where you read that info on Willie Adames playing 3rd but he has only played that position for 10 games and that was back in 2013 with a fielding % of .929.

    3. That was on CBS sports. Truly absurd idea, although I guess the Rays would love it.

       Best I can recall, Adames struck out on 3 pitches the last 100 at bats of the season. Oh, wait. That was me replaying the last few innings of Game 6 over and over and over.

    4. I wouldn’t trade either one of those guys for Adames let alone both of them.

       1. I would include Ruiz but not Gray.

          1. You are so predictable.

    5. Adames is a really bad idea. Great glove, no stick. Sounds like Kike. No thanks, Ruiz and Gray? Insane. 8 K’s in 21 AB’s against LA in the World Series. No power to speak of. I think his 20 HR’s in 19 were an aberration.

15. If they expand the playoffs again, I will only cursorily follow the regular season. MLB doesn’t need me to watch, but I do think this would have a negative long-term effect. Now, almost all fans realize that professional sports is a business, intended to make a lot of money for the rich people who own the franchises. Yes, some of them also like the excitement of trying to compete with their peer group. But there have been very few owners in all sports combined, who didn’t care about making profits. But the fans put up with this, as long as the sport presents legitimate competition, and an attempt to make the season fair, and reward season-long play and fan commitment.

    So there is this mythical world, where we fans care about our team, and the players, and do not have any interest in the various profits the owners are making. We love the competition. We can ignore the pecuniary aspects, or at least put up with them. But sometimes the mask comes off, and we see how the rules of the sport are manipulated to create more profits. We put up with the pitching mound raised and lowered, the ball juiced and unjuiced, even the various salary caps which are called by different names. We even accepted expanded playoffs over the years, up to a point. But if they are now going to play something like a 154 game season, and let eight teams from each league, making 53% of the teams, get to make the playoffs, with the division winners forced to win a three-game series just to make the next round, that is too much. That is bilking the fans, not out of money, but out of what should be a legitimate competition, where the regular season substantially matters.

    So we will play all those regular season games, just to let virtually any team with a winning record make the playoffs? The Dodgers win 98 games, and the Diamondbacks win 81 games, and we have to beat them in two out of three, or even three out of five, or the entire season is done? Why not just let all the teams in, and play high card for the first two rounds? It doesn’t matter to the owners, but it does to the fans, even those who do not have a favorite team, but just enjoy the game. And that is probably why the Mets are a rising third favorite to win the pennant, and will be higher, if they indeed land Bauer. DeGrom and Bauer are an immense potential advantage in a short playoff series, whether three or five games. A team could actually loaf through the regular season, then pick up some free agent pitching rentals at the trade deadline, and be all ready to win the title.

    We all understand that regular season baseball is different than playoff baseball, but this makes the regular season virtually meaningless, which is why I would not follow it very closely, which is a shame. The owners expect the fans to pay for tickets, watch the games on TV, buy the products, but they then dissipate the time put into that. I don’t care what monetary issues led to this, but this is not necessary, it is insulting. It would be like signing up to watch a show on cable or internet, and then learning that the first ten episodes really don’t have much to do with the two-hour conclusion, they were just fluff so that they could charge a higher price.

    1. I have no problem with a temporary expansion of playoffs, but not how they did it last year. Seeding needs to be different. Best record gets a bye, worst records get washed out quickly by playing each other in a 1 game playoff. If not that something similar.

       1. Yeah, I agree with that

16. News just breaking about Mickey Callaway, who apparently thinks he’s God’s gift to women. He will be the ex-Angel pitching coach by tomorrow.

    I wonder if this will make any difference to the Angel’s interest in signing Bauer. Past stories indicated that he and Callaway didn’t get along. and that as long as he was with the Angels, Bauer wouldn’t be.

    Of course, it’s also possible that the Angels have no interest in spending that kind of money on Bauer.

    1. Callaway’s current response: “Rather than rush to respond to these general allegations of which I have just been made aware, I look forward to an opportunity to provide more specific responses. Any relationship in which I was engaged has been consensual, and my conduct was in no way intended to be disrespectful to any women involved. I am married and my wife has been made aware of these general allegations.” So it appears that Callaway is not denying the allegations, but saying they were consensual. It involves five women over five years, multiple cities, and three teams.

       Bauer needs one team to snub their nose at the CBT Threshold. None of the Angels, Mets, or Dodgers can sign Bauer to anywhere close to what he wants and stay under the CBT threshold. Until some team crosses that line, I will consider it a hard salary cap. I hope that is wrong. I have no desire to have the Pirates, Mariners, Orioles, Indians, Rays, and Marlins dictating what teams can spend on payroll.

       1. I predict that the Pirates will sign Bauer. Wouldn’t that be fun?

          1. Toronto on a one-year deal.

17. And here I thought chocolate was God’s gift. The Angels need the 2020 version of Bauer. Maybe Arte prefers Almond Joy’s over Mounds and Bauer can be his nut.

18. Arenado trade is now official. It is reported that the Rockies will receive ML left-hander Austin Gomber, third baseman Mateo Gil (#22 prospect), infielder Elehuris Montero (#8 prospect), and right-hander Tony Locey (#19 prospect) in exchange for Arenado. Yes the Dodgers could have blown that deal away, but they were never going to get the chance.

19. Its not necessarily about blowing that deal away as the Cardinals could have improved upon the prospects going to the Rockies but rather thats all it took to acquire Arenado and $50 million dollars. Colorado management was taken to the wood shed.

    1. I agree that this was just a horrible deal for the Rockies, and not just the loss of Arenado. I can see no way that Trevor Story re-signs with the Rockies. Hopefully Bear can start to report on the fallout from Colorado fans.

       1. I will definitely do that Jeff. When the report of the trade went down on Friday, I talked to a few of the Rockies fans here in the building, they were beyond POed. One even said she was done rooting for them. And they blame it all on Monfort. Although the GM is not exactly the most popular person in the state right now either. About 90 % of the reaction to the trade has been negative or worse. And not one of the people I have talked to even cares what they got back.

20. MLBPA has rejected the 154 game scenario. I have not seen a counterproposal yet.

    1. Probably won’t be one until after things have started and the players are in camp to be polled personally. Found out this evening that my best friend Gary, who lives out in Lancaster, and his wife have both tested positive for Covid-19. Pretty dangerous for him since he is on dialysis and he is also diabetic. She told me he had to be taken to the hospital on Friday, he had not taken his insulin or eaten. I chewed his ass out for that one.

21. The few times I have seen Gray he has not seemed anything special, I remember Edwin Jackson when he was a prospect and he looked much better, I think Gray will be useful as a # 4 or 5, he clearly does not measure up to Buehler, Julio and May, that’s not necessarily bad, it can be a good No.5.
    Lastly I think Hoese will be a 1B, his height and the weight he adds will not make him good at 3B

    1. If I remember right, Jackson threw a shutout in his first start. He looked like he was going to be a stud.

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