There has been a lot of chatter about the cool reception the current group of FA’s are receiving. DJLM got $90MM, but he is going to be spreading that over 6 years for a team favorable AAV. George Springer turned a small bidding war between the two teams that figured to spend (Mets and Jays) into a Toronto overspend of 5 years $150MM. That was about $25MM more than the Mets offered, but that is what it was going to take.
Yesterday, the Phillies finally agreed to sign JT Realmuto for 5 years and $115.5MM. Unfortunately for JTR, the Mets signed McCann and the Angels need pitching more than catching. JTR’s agent tried to get Atlanta involved, but that was probably more for a one year deal and come back and try again for 2022.
The Mets have reportedly made a formal offer to Trevor Bauer, so his market should start to pick up. The Mets offer is reportedly at a non-record setting rate. There is another report that says the Mets put that offer on the table weeks ago and it was not considered strong enough then. But his suitors are not very deep. I have never believed the Dodgers were in on Bauer. The Blue Jays got Springer, and are now concentrating on a trade with Chicago for Kris Bryant. The Blue Jays absolutely have room to add Bryant and $20MM. I am a little surprised that the Jays are not more involved with Bauer. I am also surprised that LAA is not going all in on Bauer. Maybe now that the Mets have a formal offer out there, the other teams will begin to negotiate more in earnest. But I cannot see more than NYM, Toronto, or LAA giving Bauer what he wants.
Masahiro Tanaka is moving towards returning to Japan, even though he would like to continue to pitch in the US. He is not getting any serious traction for a multi-year contract. Teams are not willing to spend on a very tenuous elbow. I see a contract similar to Tomoyuki Sugano’s 4 year $40MM with an opt out after each year type deal, with Rakuten in Japan.
Marcell Ozuna is caught behind the inability of MLB and MLBPA to negotiate in good faith about the universal DH. The Braves have already said they are out on Ozuna. MLBTR predicted 4 years and $72MM ($18mm AAV). That seems a little high to me for a DH. Nick Castellanos signed for 4 years and $64MM, so the prediction seemed more than plausible. But with the pandemic and questionable revenues, $18MM AAV might be a tad too stiff for a primarily DH.
After Bauer, the next level of starting pitchers starts with Jake Odorizzi who figures to be the only pitcher with a better than not chance for a three year or more deal. After Odorizzi, both James Paxton and Taijuan Walker would follow. But they are no more than a 1 year or 2 in today’s market.
To date, 29 of the MLBTR top 50 are signed, and a total of 19 of the next level have signed. Of the 29 that signed of MLBTR’s top 50, 17 have been 1 year contracts, and 5 have been for two years. There have been two nine figure contracts, that may grow to three depending on the number of years for Bauer, and one at $90MM. The next largest contract is for $40MM (James McCann). Last year there were 4 in excess of $100MM with 3 in excess of $200MM. There were 3 more north of $80MM, and 4 more north of $50MM.
Of the next tier of 19 FA, 14 are on 1 year contracts, and 5 are on 2 year deals, including Tommy Kahnle which is really 1 year (2022).
As a preface, not all FA have signed, and there is at least one and p
The disparity of the various teams payroll is astounding. There are two teams with payroll AAVs in excess of $200MM, but have not yet crossed the threshold. The Dodgers currently have the largest payroll with $204MM, with Boston right behind with $203MM. There are 7 additional teams with payrolls between $170MM and $200MM.
Top Nine Payrolls:
- Dodgers – $204,443,824
- Boston – $202,961,667
- NYY – $198,146,667
- Houston – $195,882,977
- Nationals – $192,997,709
- Angels – $185,233,334
- NYM – $182,905,000
- Padres – $172,203,833
- Phillies – $171,378,872
There are 11 teams with payroll between $100MM to $170MM.
There are 10 teams below $100MM in payroll.
- Indians – $56,105,000
- Pirates – $58,255,000
- Rays – $70,141,667
- Marlins – $73,625,000
- Mariners – $80,645,714
- Orioles – $80,662,500
- A’s – $89,190,833
- Rangers – $89,970,833
- Tigers – $89,995,000
- Royals – $96,857,500
Total Payroll as of January 26 is $3,971,303,935 for a per team average of $132,376,798.
As I stated above, the Mets have made a formal offer for Trevor Bauer. The Mets are $27,095,000 below the CBT threshold, and are unlikely to be able to sign Bauer without going over the threshold. Steve Cohen certainly can if he wants to, and if he does, that could open the door for the Dodgers to go over as well. Will Cohen and the Mets do it?
The Mets have a lot of payroll concerns for next year. I believe the Mets will eventually sign Francisco Lindor to a multi-year deal. But discounting Lindor, the Mets have seven 2021-2022 potential free agents:
- Marcus Stroman – $18.9MM
- Michael Conforto – $12.25MM
- Jeurys Familia – $11.67MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM
- Dellin Betances – $6.0MM
- Brad Brach – $2.08MM
- Total FA Savings – $65.80MM
Robinson Cano will be off his suspension and will cost NYM $20MM in 2022 and 2023. The Mets have 16 arbitration players in 2022. Those 16 players, and the increase in Lindor’s salary, could very well eat up the remaining $45.80MM. But the Mets will still have to replace three potential starting pitchers, and two late inning relievers, and arguably their top OF. I suspect that Cohen is hoping that the negotiated CBA will demonstrably increase the CBT threshold.
The Nationals and Phillies are $17MM and $38.6 MM below CBT threshold respectively. The Phillies still need a shortstop, more starting pitching, more relief pitching, and another OF. They have already exceeded what owner John Middleton wanted to spend this year. How they fill the remaining holes and be able to stay with Atlanta, NYM, and the Nationals will be a test. They need Didi Gregorius, and he should at least match Semien. Do they dare approach the threshold?
The Nationals are $17MM below the CBT. Are they willing to stay with Carter Kieboom at 3B and Josh Harrison at 2B? Will Kyle Schwarber get a new lease on his baseball life and give the Nats what they need out of LF?
The Giants do not appear to want to start their rebuild until next year when all of their large contracts other than Evan Longoria come off the books. Longoria will be the only Giant under contract in 2022 with a total commitment of $11.165MM. The Giants will have a lot of cash available. Their revenues were top 5 in 2019 with $452MM and they have no debt service. Comparatively, the Dodgers had $556MM with debt service. I do not have access to the Dodgers financials, so I have no idea what their debt service payments are. But their estimated debt is in excess of $400MM.
NYY will have 7 player contracts committed to $127.5MM in 2022. They will have 18 players due for arbitration. Five players (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Jameson Taillon, and Chad Green) will be in their final year of arbitration and Aroldis Chapman’s contract will expire after 2022. I doubt that it much matters, as I believe NYY will have no problem making any payroll.
Boston will have only five players under contract in 2022 with a cost of $91.6MM. They will have 15 arbitration eligible players.
The Assterisks are $14MM below the threshold and have needs. They need a CF to replace Springer, and Myles Straw is not quite up to their expectations. Do they trade for Kevin Kiermaier. Do they sign Jackie Bradley Jr.? Would that take them over the threshold? Do they look to sign Kevin Pillar? For 2022, depending as to how the Assterisks young players develop, they could be in a rebuild around Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Will they re-sign Carlos Correa? Houston will have the dollars available to restock if they so choose to go down the FA route, or rebuild from within as they did before.
The Angels need pitching badly. They are about $25MM below the threshold. That does not seem to be sufficient to sign Bauer. Do they instead sign Jake Odorizzi and either James Paxton or Taijuan Walker?
The haves will still be the haves at the next CBA, and the have nots will still be the have nots. What the teams appetite will be for 2022, especially if gate receipts are down again, and depending on the new CBA, the gap could definitely widen. I think teams are voraciously trying to stay under the CBT threshold.
I have already described a forecast for the Dodgers thru 2025. 2022 will provide the Dodgers with a lot of room underneath the threshold. How they intend to handle Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager will have lasting affects over the next several years. If the Dodgers can replicate with Joe Kelly what NYY did with Adam Ottavino, they should have sufficient funds to sign both JT and a $1MM to a $2MM reliever. Or do they keep Kelly and sign JT and exceed the threshold? There are less than three weeks until pitchers and catchers are to report. We should know where everything stands within the next three weeks.
Top 50 Free Agents still unsigned (21):
- Trevor Bauer
- Marcell Ozuna
- Didi Gregorius
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Jake Odorizzi
- Justin Turner
- Joc Pederson
- Nelson Cruz
- Jackie Bradley Jr.
- James Paxton
- Taijuan Walker
- Kolten Wong
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Tommy La Stella
- Yadier Molina
- Adam Wainright
- Alex Colome
- Rick Porcello
- Cole Hamels
- Mark Melancon
- Chris Archer
Who signs the above players? How many will get more than one or two year deals?
Note: The above is current through Wilson Ramos and Andrelton Simmons contracts.
AAV Payrolls and Amounts Under CBT Threshold By Team
| Division | Team | Payroll | Division Total | Under CBT |
| – | – | – | – | – |
| AL Central | ||||
| White Sox | $164,320,834 | $45,679,166 | ||
| Indians | $56,105,000 | $153,895,000 | ||
| Tigers | $91,995,000 | $118,005,000 | ||
| Royals | $96,857,500 | $113,142,500 | ||
| Twins | $126,671,000 | $535,949,334 | $83,329,000 | |
| AL East | ||||
| Orioles | $80,662,500 | $129,337,500 | ||
| Red Sox | $202,961,667 | $7,038,333 | ||
| Yankees | $198,146,667 | $11,853,333 | ||
| Rays | $70,141,667 | $139,858,333 | ||
| Jays | $144,592,857 | $696,505,358 | $65,407,143 | |
| AL West | ||||
| Astros | $195,882,977 | $14,117,023 | ||
| Angels | $185,233,334 | $24,766,666 | ||
| A’s | $89,190,833 | $120,809,167 | ||
| Mariners | $80,645,714 | $129,354,286 | ||
| Rangers | $89,970,833 | $640,923,91 | $120,029,167 | |
| NL Central | ||||
| Cubs | $137,205,000 | $72,795,000 | ||
| Reds | $125,681,071 | $84,318,929 | ||
| Brewers | $102,955,555 | $107,044,445 | ||
| Pirates | $58,255,000 | $151,745,000 | ||
| Cardinals | $145,695,833 | $569,792,459 | $64,304,167 | |
| NL East | ||||
| Braves | $138,163,333 | $71,836,667 | ||
| Marlins | $73,625,000 | $136,375,000 | ||
| Mets | $182,905,000 | $27,095,000 | ||
| Phillies | $171,378,872 | $38,621,128 | ||
| Nationals | $192,997,709 | $759,069,914 | $17,002,291 | |
| NL West | ||||
| DBacks | $103,006,666 | $106,993,334 | ||
| Rockies | $145,113,333 | $64,886,667 | ||
| Dodgers | $204,443,824 | $5,556,176 | ||
| Padres | $172,203,833 | $37,796,167 | ||
| Giants | $146,295,523 | $771,063,179 | $63,704,477 |
To keep under the CBT I’m willing to sign for 5 mil next year and play 3rd. Takin one for the team!
Bauer maybe having problems getting signed as a result of some old tweets that surfaced. The Mets offer I heard was 30 million for 4 years. Given their recent GM debacle will the Mets offer still be on the table?
Should the next CBT have a salary cap and threshold? I know the players don’t want a cap but would they take one if a threshold required the owners to not use the tanking strategy. Probably a non starter but would something like that be good for the game?
So, it looks like the Dodgers project to be the only to violate the CBT threshold when they finally sign JT? A Joe Kelly trade seems like a reach for me. He did have some injury concerns last year and is making as much money as some of the better back end options have signed for this offseason. If a trade happens, does that mean we would need to backfill that spot with someone else? We’re getting down to the nitty gritty with available bullpen options remaining. I don’t blame the Dodgers for not getting Yates or Hand. Both are given the opportunity to close and the Dodgers just can’t offer that with Jansen still in the mix. We were lucky that Treinen would rather win than close. We were lucky to be able to trade for a closer in Knebel. We’re pretty lucky to have three “Bona-fide” closers including Jansen, who was pretty damn good for most of the season. Maybe a little more driveline will get his mechanics back on track…
Looking at AC’s math, it sure looks like owners are crying foul and are trying to stay below the CBT for the upcoming season. Maybe they’ve come to the realization that they aren’t going to be able to convince players to take a pay cut even without butts in seats for at least part of the upcoming season. JT’s next deal will certainly push the Dodgers over, but I think they’ll eat it rather than trading off salary to make room for the cap with all the money that comes off the books next year.
The Dodgers seem to be set as far as the bullpen is concerned. I’m pretty sure the 26 man roster limits the number of pitchers to 13…
Starters
Kershaw
Bueller
Price
Urias
May
Relievers
Jansen
Knebel
Treinen
Kelly
Graterol
Floro
Gonzalez
Alexander
Depth
Kolarek
Santana
Sborz
Gonsolin
Carillo
Cleavinger
Jackson
Uceta
White
Non-Roster
Nelson
Stewart
Morrow
Gonsolin
Schwaab
It sure looks like the pitching staff is complete unless you sign a better option and trade some depth. But, it sure looks like that depth is full of pretty good options.
The position players are almost set after signing Turner, if that ever happens. The starting 8, with Turner yields 4 right handed bats in Turner, Betts, Smith and Pollock and 4 left handed bats in Lux, Seager, Bellinger and Muncy. Taylor – R, Beaty – L and Rios – L fill out the bench with Barnes – R splitting time at catcher. That leaves one more spot on the 26 man for McKinstry – L, Peters – R, Raley – L, Recks – L, Ruiz – S.
So much for being pigs unless pigs means to pick up a trough full of pitchers. Many with big question marks.
It sure looks like JT is the only outstanding piece. At least, AF has built enough of a roster to start the season this way.
Excellent column, Jeff.
Okay, there is no fairness in baseball. The CBT was suppose to help balance that or at least discourage teams from spending freely. It also offered a chance to redistribute funds from the wealthy teams to the less wealthy. Then there is revenue sharing, another attempt at helping find balance.
Without knowing how the Dodger finances actually work, it is difficult to understand where the organization stands. Lots of mixed messages further confuse the issue. Are they actually trying to recover from the pandemic season? Some teams were clearly hurt more than others, have serious financial issues. Others may be using it as cover to change directions.
Is Scott Boras correct? Maybe. We do know that the Dodgers cleared a massive amount of money (profit) in 2019. At least according from reports. Likely they took in more revenue than they spent last year, that based on TV money. They have clearly upped their game internationally. They continue to carry high payrolls. The organization hasn’t fallen back to the middle of the pack, which was once predicted after information leaked out. They also continue to covet their prospects, not easily parting with them like some teams do in an effort to remain on top.
Beyond Turner’s bat and ability to play third, I think the team fully understands that to part with him, would create ripples within the club, the fan base and the community, which means they go the extra mile.
Since it is far more difficult to create “star” quality in baseball as opposed to basketball and with LA being a star driven town, it seems likely the Dodgers re-sign him.
I would agree that Trevor Bauer seems an unlikely fit. I think he wants to be in LA, probably makes more sense for the Angels than Dodgers. Will Artie pull the trigger? Still, even though it doesn’t seem to make sense and the Dodgers have a pretty good rotation with depth, it wouldn’t totally surprise me. Could LA be hearing footsteps coming from the south. Are there concerns? Of course, it’s human nature. They like winning too much.
Plus I think it’s obvious that LA wants to win again in 2021, but this time do in front of the fans. Winning last year was great, the only thing missing was doing it at Dodger Stadium in front of a packed house. Celebrating with a downtown parade. That may drive them to go the extra mile.
Most likely the Dodgers ink Turner, look for a bullpen deal or two, wait for the trade deadline to make adjustments.
I read this morning that Curt Schilling didn’t again make the HOF. With one shot left, he requested his name be removed from the 2022 ballot. The Selection Committee rejected his request to not participate because it’s against their rules. Huh?
Like him or hate him, isn’t he entitled to his opinions and choice of participation? What happen to “the land of the free”?
Now all the writers who didn’t vote him in this year will vote him in next year just to piss him off.
Pretty much, wouldn’t surprise me if that were the case. It seems like he isn’t getting in because he doesn’t agree with the political ideology of most of the sports writers.
Dodgers sign Kickham. Now we have our closer!
They also signed Jim Indeas to a contract. Kickham/Indeas in the same day, what a duo. Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. I just made that up. 🙂
AF Being a Pig!
Well done 2d2
Alanna Rizzo leaving the Dodgers and concentrating on her home life.
This might be the biggest loss of the off-season. She was a great interviewer and sideline reporter. She will be missed.
Say it ain’t so! She was great, truly respected her reporting!
I am sure that last year took its toll, but she did have time to really focus more on her passion and foundation…Guidry’s Guardian Foundation. It is a Foundation established to save dogs in need. Thus far it has been “operating” in Southern California. However, she now has a desire to take this Foundation nationally. With her drive and dedication, I have no doubt she will succeed magnificently. It is a fantastic cause. She will be missed.
Just in case anyone is interested, see her site below.
https://guidrysguardian.org/
What??? Nooooo……She is the best, my favorite, and she is so hot!
Jorge she’s moving and joining the Padres
Since I appreciate your sense of humor Bobby, I’m going to assume that your comment was only meant for Jorge and that Alanna will not be moving to SD.
You made me laugh a lot, that was a really good one !!
I was really sad to see that. She did an outstanding job. She stood on her merits and did great interviews.
Darren O’Day signs a one year deal with the Yankees. He is 38.
Yankees replaced Ottavino with Darren O’Day. O’Day signed a one year deal for $2.5MM plus an interesting option. It is both a team and player option. The team can exercise the option at a higher amount, but if they choose not to, the player can exercise the option at a lesser amount. I assume that he could refuse to exercise the option and become a free agent again.
O’Day’s Deal:
O’Day receives a $1.75MM salary for the upcoming season and has a $1.4MM player option with a $700K buyout, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He’ll actually make the first decision, and if he opts for the buyout, the Yankees then have a $3.15MM club option over the righty.
I like this option idea.
I’m now leaning toward Cassidy at 3rd and signing James Paxton.
They can’t take your money back after you sign, right?
Very informative article, Jeff.
The MLB is more than ever a league of the haves and the have nots. The large market, high revenue teams like Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Giants, Philly, etc. have huge financial advantages over the low revenue teams. The Dodgers local TV contract is worth about $200 million per year while the Marlins local contract is worth $20 million per year and the Brewers only $28 million. And the stadium receipts also are vastly larger in Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park than in smaller markets. The team’s on field success can improve short term attendance and possibly media revenues, but the long term advantages of large market teams is very difficult to overcome. Since the Marlins won the WS in 2003, there have been 17 champions and only 1 winner, Kansas City in 2015, came from a small market.
It is very impressive that some small market teams like Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have consistently remained competitive despite maintaining a low payroll and continually losing their best players to free agency. They seem to use the current system well, develop young players and keep them until they become more valuable to other teams and then trade them away or let them walk away in free agency. Cleveland has traded away Bauer, Clevinger, Kluber, Carrasco, and Tomlin; their entire staff from the World Series team. And their current five starters make a combined total of less than $3 million, as all are under 26 with less than 3 years of mlb service.
The MLB payrolls reflect the huge local revenue disparity and unless major changes are made to further share the revenues, the large market teams will tend to dominate. Not on the field every year, because baseball success is fleeting, but most times on the field, and consistently in the financial sphere. Luckily, the Dodgers are near the top of the financial structure in the MLB, and combined with a savvy front office, should be able to consistently win.
But for smaller market teams, they seem to be taking a reasonable approach of trying to compete by developing and playing young players in their first 5 to 6 years, and then selling their best players for new prospects to start all over again. And operating off their share of the National tv contracts plus the limited local revenues. The smaller market teams will still be profitable, and if everything goes right can make to the WS like the Rays did last year with only a $70 million payroll.
I’m sure their operas feature lesser divas as well.
Eric did you plant the article in Dodger Nation today?
I know many here like Alanna. But I have never been a huge fan of the on field reporters or in game interviews from the dugout. I like to concentrate on the game. I was here when she was working for the Rockies. Their broadcasts are filled with reports from the bleachers and sidelines along with the 2 idiots in the booth. Never a big fan of that type of set up. So, although some will miss her, I personally will not. I barely can stand Orel as an analyst as it is. I wish her well.
Maybe she’s just taking the week off but won’t actually leave.
Ouch!
How about Orel hits the bricks and Alanna stays?
I loved Alanna’s interviews, especially after the games, and miss those if she leaves, but did not like the other teams like the Giant’s or Rockie’s interviews or guest commenters during while the games are going on! And, there are more teams that do this. Sometimes makes me go bonkers and find myself shouting, “hey, what about the game?”. Guess I am very impatient because those people seem to not pay attention to the game going on at the time. Just my opinion.
Slim Joc talking to the Giants.
He grew up a Giant fan while living in Palo Alto.
Bums – hope you’re ok
Did you see the picture of Joc?
He definitely looks much leaner.
A little off topic but I could use some help please. Where do I find a relief pitchers IR and IRS?
Google relief pitcher stats. Select Baseball Reference as the site. Scroll down to Game Logs. Select the year you want to review. The page will be each game for that year the pitcher pitched. There are two columns called IR and IS. Go to the bottom row and that will give you the total inherited runs (IR) and inherited runs scored (IS) for the year. You can review the IR and IS for each game.
I hope this helps.
Thank you so much Jeff. I really appreciate it.
Blue Jays are finalizing a deal to get Matz from the Mets for three prospects.
Dodger beat writer JP Hoornstra tells me that Alanna’s replacement has already been hired but nobody knows who it is yet.
Matz to Blue Jays drops the Mets to $32MM below CBT threshold. Could be a precursor to Trevor Bauer.
I am a believer in broadcasting that less is more. Vin was the best at what he did, and he did it with no analyst in the booth and no sideline reporters or interviews. After he retired the Dodger broadcast’s morphed into being the same as every other team in the majors. The Rockies broadcasters, besides being notorious homers, are just simply annoying. When I lived in Arizona and had to listen to the D-Backs broadcasters, it was pretty much the same. And they had Bob Brenley on their broadcasts for a while. Total homer, and never had a good word about any opponent. I do not mind interviews, I just do not like them in game. I think miking up players during games is idiotic too. I think Roberts got a little hot about that after they had Kike miked up during a game last year. As informative as Orel can be sometimes, he also never shuts up. And I think that stifles Davis. It has taken me a while to even be able to listen to Davis because in the beginning, he sounded more like a Joe Buck clone than being himself. He has gotten over the initial butterflies I think, and has improved to the point where I do not mind hearing his broadcasts. Alanna was pleasant, and when she interviewed those who did not speak English she was always patient with them while they formed their answers. Post game, I had no problem with what she did. She was very good at it. Since I do not have Fox Sports West I do not have to deal with all of the stuff done post game. But when I watch a Dodger-Rockie game on what now is called Altitude Sports, I turn down the sound and listen to the Dodger radio call on my computer…yep, less is more. If Joc signs with SF, I think he will be happy, but unless he can play CF again, the chances of him playing every day are slim. SF has two LH hitting corner outfielders in Yaz and Dickerson.