Has San Diego Caught The Dodgers?

Posted By on January 25, 2021

There has been a lot of talk by MLB fans in general how the Padres may have caught the Dodgers.  On the East coast, most in NY and Atlanta believe they have better 26-man rosters.  Dodger fans of course take offense at such a charge.  None of the four teams are finished completing their rosters, but I thought I would take a more in depth look at a Dodgers/Padres comp, from my perspective, such as it is.  It would be so easy to get on here and just say how each and every Dodger is better than each and every Padre (or Met or Brave). During the season, I am almost always emphatically Dodgers can do no wrong.  Yes, a pure Homer.  During the offseason, I try to be a little more objective.  Words are just words, and they do not make one team better than the other.  That has to be proven on the field.

As of right now, Dodger losses from their 2020 WS roster:

  • Pedro Baez
  • Jake McGee
  • Alex Wood
  • Kike’ Hernandez
  • Joc Pederson
  • Justin Turner – I still believe AF will sign JT so we can leave him out of this analysis.

Dodger additions:

  • David Price
  • Corey Knebel

I think Jake McGee and Alex Wood are the 27th and 28th man on the roster and will not be replaced.  Corey Knebel replaces Pedro Baez.  David Price will either move Tony Gonsolin to the bullpen or to AAA to continue starting.  Some believe it will be May, but I think the team is better with May in the rotation and Gonsolin in the pen.  I think there are other moves that AF will make before he finalizes the bullpen, so this is a moving target.  I HAVE ZERO BELIEF THAT TREVOR BAUER WILL BE A DODGER.   As it presently exists, the bullpen is good but not elite.  With limited financial flexibility, I doubt that a significant high leverage late inning addition is on the horizon, unless other high cost players are moved.  But then again, maybe the budget will not be a hindrance in the composition of the bullpen.

Zach McKinstry is the logical replacement for Kike’.  I do not have the confidence in Zach McKinstry many fans do.  I think he had a fantastic 2019 in AA and AAA and a good 2020 ST.  He has more than earned a chance to make the 26 man team.  But where Kike’ excelled, defense and an occasional clutch HR, I do not believe Zach has Kike’s defensive chops or his power ability. 

None of Matt Beaty, Luke Raley, or Zach Reks are an improvement over Joc.  The Dodgers need another RH bat (in addition to JT), so is DJ Peters an option?

Dodgerrick does not believe that Corey Knebel is an improvement over Pedro Baez.  And while I admire and respect Rick for his knowledge and ability to cogently articulate, it was he who gave Baez the moniker of EL Gasolino for his continuous inability to get inherited runners out, especially in playoff games.   At least Rick was the first person I ever heard refer to Baez as El Gasolino.  I am going to go with Corey Knebel as an improvement.

Even if the Dodgers do re-sign JT, he is an aging 36 year old 3B who has rarely been healthy enough for a full year.  He is nearing more of a DH role rather than 3B, meaning Edwin Rios will be platooning with JT.  I am not sure that a JT/Rios platoon is an improvement over a younger and healthier JT, but let’s consider this a wash.  JT is a Dodger fan favorite, as well as a clubhouse leader.  Without JT at all, this will be a very significant downgrade.

David Price is the big improvement as a #3.  There are certainly questions as to whether Price can return to top of the rotation after a year and a half.  We Dodger fans believe he will, but that does not make the questions any less poignant.

Now for the Padres.  Padres losses:

  • Luis Patino
  • Garrett Richards
  • Trevor Rosenthal
  • Ryan Weathers
  • Mike Clevinger
  • Zach Davies
  • Luis Campusano
  • Jason Castro
  • Mitch Moreland
  • Greg Allen

Padres additions:

  • Blake Snell
  • Yu Darvish
  • Dinelson Lamet
  • Joe Musgrove
  • Victor Caratini
  • Ha-seong Kim
  • Brian O’Grady
  • Jorge Mateo

Victor Caratini is an improvement because he is Yu Darvish’s personal catcher, and he could match up against Jason Castro offensively.  Campusano should eventually be the primary catcher, but not yet.  I am not sure where Kim eventually plays.  It is possible that SD will now have three super-utility players in Kim, Profar, and Cronenworth.  Certainly there are questions abound on Kim, but aren’t there also questions on Lux?  Both Kim and Cronenworth can periodically allow Tatis Jr. or Machado a day off, but it is more like all three will rotate around 2B, LF and DH (with Pham).  That is a bit excessive, and could present a problem.  O’Grady and Mateo are at least washes over Moreland and Allen. So the Padres improvement hinges on the pitching additions.

It amazes me how some fans have this innate ability to overvalue their own team’s player and undervalue the opposition, and justify it.  To seemingly most Dodger fans, Blake Snell is overrated.  Some of those same fans who think Blake Snell cannot make it back to 2018 think Corey Knebel is going to be outstanding this year, similar to 2017.  The difference?  One is a Padre, and one is a Dodger.  Me?  I think both will have very good years in 2021.

In 2018, Snell won the CY with the following stats:

21-5 (W-L), 180.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 221 K, 64 BB (3.45 SO/W), 217 ERA+, 5.6 H/9 (Best in MLB)

In Game 6, Snell was almost unhittable through 5.1 IP (73 pitches).  If it weren’t for Austin Barnes, Snell very well could have pitched another WS no-hitter against the Dodgers.  Maybe a little hyperbolic, but Snell flat out dominated.  He had 9 strikeouts including Mookie, Corey, and JT twice each.  Some point out that Snell is a five inning pitcher.  Is he?  He was for the Rays (as were all Rays starters), but maybe not for the Padres.  Come to think about it, how many Dodger pitchers are more than five inning pitchers?

Of course some of the same folks who are not impressed by Snell gush over Tony Gonsolin.  Tony, who also started Game 6,  is only 18 months younger than Snell.  In his 1.2 IP, he was effectively wild.  He did strike out 4 of the 5 outs, but he also allowed 3 hits and 2 walks, including a Randy Arozarena HR.  He was pulled so he would not have to face Arozarena again, and Dylan Floro came through.  I think Tony will be very good for the Dodgers, but why do fans think Gonsolin will be better than Snell?  Because one is a Dodger and one is a Padre.

Blake Snell will never approach Clayton Kershaw’s career.  Clayton Kershaw’s last year with those type of numbers over a full season was 2015.  He was excellent in 2016 and 2017, but not at the level of 2018 Blake Snell.  And Kershaw is HOF.  But he is getting older, and his back isn’t.  Kersh has been on the IL every year since 2016, and in 2014 after Game 1 to May 6. 

David Price is a former CY winner and has been an excellent starting pitcher for 12 years, but he has never had a year like Snell’s 2018.  Price has been on the IL quite a bit.  Three out of his last six years, he has spent a good deal of time of the IL.  He has not pitched any meaningful innings since July 2019. 

Walker Buehler is on his way to being an Ace, but he has never had a year like Blake Snell’s 2018.  Management significantly shortchanged him in their arbitration submittal.  How does Walker respond to that.  I think many can argue that Joc’s last season might have been hindered by the arbitration issue.

Julio Urias has been considered a top starting pitcher for how many years? He was epic in the post season, but he still needs to prove he can get out of the 1st inning in less than 40 pitches as a starter.

Dustin May/Tony Gonsolin – Let’s let them put together a full month of consistent productive starts before calling them better than Blake Snell. You can feel that they will, but they have to prove it.

Walker Buehler is a CY winner in waiting, but you cannot make him better by putting Snell down.  There are still top years ahead for Kershaw, but that does not diminish how good Snell could be. 

David Price might have a fantastic 2021 season, but since the 2nd half of 2019, it is hard to find a pitcher who has been better than Yu Darvish.  Darvish is a full year younger than Price.  And yet most Dodger fans just assume that Price will be good and Darvish not so much.

May and Gonsolin will have higher ceilings than Joe Musgrove, but Musgrove has already done it albeit with middling results for 3.5 years.  He will now be pitching for his home town team.  He will be a number 5.

As good as May and Gonsolin’s future may be, MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling is higher.  Adrian Morejon is at about the same grade/rating as Dustin May was, and higher than Gonsolin.  Morejon is 22. Just like May and Gonsolin, Gore and Morejon also have to prove it. Otherwise it is just talk.

It is irrelevant how Padres starting pitchers pitch against the Dodgers. Against the Dodgers, Zach Davies may be a better pitcher than is Darvish.  But probably not against the 18 other teams they will be facing.  It is hard to argue how good Darvish has been since the second half of 2019.

Dinelson Lamet was not on the NLDS roster, but we all know how good he was in 2020.  Will that continue into 2021?  It is just as likely as both May and Gonsolin will.

Joe Musgrove – It seems so easy to dismiss him.  I remember a lot of discussion on how Musgrove seems to have improved last year, and how many were predicting that he would be moved to a contender that believed in his improvement.  But what brought about the improvement and will it continue?  After the 2019 season, the Pirates let pitching coach Ray Searage go and brought in Oscar Martin.  This change may not work for the team, but it may give Musgrove a huge bump. Searage has a fastball heavy sink philosophy, while Martin believes in emphasizing the pitchers strengths.  Musgrove is not a strong fastball pitcher, but his secondary pitches are his strengths.  Below is an article on how Musgrove is prime for a significant improvement for a change in philosophy.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/joe-musgrove-is-an-intriguing-trade-target/

It is a somewhat technical article, but if you can stray away from the Baseball-Reference you might discover what baseball executives may see in who they may trade for.  Will Musgrove become a dominant pitcher?  Probably not, but he should become a quality starting pitcher on a contender.  Or Not.

I do not think Chris Paddack will be in the rotation all year.  Maybe not even two months.  I have seen MacKenzie Gore pitch at Modesto.  I wanted to see him pitch, and made the trek. If he believes in himself, he is on his way to becoming a top of the rotation starting pitcher.  If anyone believes that either Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin are top of the rotation pitchers, Gore is considered a can’t miss and better prospect than either.  Adrian Morejon also is a prime candidate for a future rotation spot.  But like young Dodger pitchers who do not make the rotation but can become relievers until a spot opens, that role also fits Morejon.

Make no mistake, I THINK THE DODGER STARTERS ARE THE BEST IN MLB.  But you cannot ignore the questions, and downplaying the Padres starters does not make the Dodger starters better.  Both starting rotations should be in the top three in MLB.  I think that Eno Sarris, The Athletic, has SDP now rated #1 and LAD #2.  He is not a Dodgers fan or Padres fan. He takes a sabermetric approach to his analysis. Anyone can argue that point, but to some, SDP starting pitching is ahead of LAD.  What makes it great is that no matter how much bravado is spewed about either staff, it has to be won on the field.

Position players?  Many will disagree, but IMO:

  • Eric Hosmer > Max Muncy
  • Jake Cronenworth/Ha-seong Kim > Gavin Lux/CT3
  • Manny Machado > JT/Edwin Rios
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. > Corey Seager
  • Will Smith > Austin Nola
  • AJ Pollock > Jurickson Profar/Jake Cronenworth/Ha-seong Kim
  • Cody Bellinger > Trent Grisham
  • Mookie Betts > Wil Myers

I can argue Max over Hosmer, and Seager over Tatis.  I personally prefer Seager to any MLB SS.  But it can be argued the other way around.  Bottom line, the offenses are close, while the defenses clearly benefit the Padres.  The production delta between most of the comps are minimal with the exception of Mookie over Myers and Machado or JT/Rios.  Cody needs to get back to 2019, otherwise…Smith over Nola would be the next logical widespread.  However, Smith has to do it more than one year and Nola’s offense can be very good and his defense is only going to get better the longer he plays the position. 

I do not think either bullpen is finished.  However, Drew Pomeranz, Pierce Johnson, and Emilio Pagan could be very good and as good as Treinen, KJ, and Knebel.  Or not.  Bullpens are fickle and one year does not indicate how good the next year will be.  I think Tony Gonsolin and Victor Gonzalez could be the difference makers in the pen.  But if the Padres get Trevor Rosenthal to re-sign, that could be a huge improvement over what they currently have.  We still have to wait and see.

THE DODGERS ARE STILL THE BEST TEAM IN MLB, but they are not necessarily improved over 2020.  Don’t take my word for it. Look at Vegas odds. The Padres are improved, but they have not caught the Dodgers.  And while I do believe that Dodger players can and will improve over 2020, I also do not necessarily believe that Padres players will regress as many Dodgers fans believe.

I think this could prove to be a great 2021 season.  It is conceivable that the race will go all the way to the end, and that can only help the Dodgers.  In previous years, the season was over by September 1, and the team took their foot off the gas.  It is not easy to wind down and then turn it on again.  Stay competitive all year then enter the post season. I think it was Molly Knight, The Athletic, who wrote a fantastic article on that subject.

Now I expect there to be a lot of push back.  But my primary point is that just because players wear the Dodgers jersey does not inherently make them better. Because Dodger fans “feel” that Garrett Cleavenger is going to have a great year (based on what I do not know), does not make them any more correct than the Padre fans who “feel” that the Dan Altavilla is going to have a great year.  Because I think Brandon Morrow is going to have a very good year, is simply an opinion, I do not have a crystal ball. The players have to prove it.  And a SD fan (or NYM or Atlanta) have their own teams and games to embellish. That is what makes the games fun.  Let’s hope we have a full 162 games to brag about our teams accomplishments rather than a shortened season, because  I am certainly running out of things to write about.

This article has 62 Comments

  1. Has San Diego Caught The Dodgers?
    NO ….
    Those damn clowns sons of bitches have not done anything yet, it takes 50 years of high level, win several championships, be an internationally famous team, and above all, stop being assholes and respect the game and to the opposing team, they have to show that they can, in order to show off, instead of believing that they are good when they have achieved nothing!

    Many or almost all say they hate Houston, I don’t care about them, we hardly ever see them, except in world series, and others will make them pay for their crap, but we see these SD assholes 18 times for season, fuck them !!

    1. I think a Netflix series on Jorge’s animosity towards the Padres, its roots and development, would be must watch TV.

  2. There both good teams. Personally I don’t care what San Diego does. All that matters is what the Dodgers do.

  3. I think it will be interesting to the effect of the past / present pitching coaches on San Diego’s pitching imports. It took a while for the headcase that is Yu Darvish to be successful as a Cubs pitcher. The fact that his personal catcher was included in the trade says a lot about Darvish’s psyche. Tampa Bay is known for developing pitchers. I’m not sure the Padres are since they had a system that was completely stacked with pitching prospects, yet they traded away a couple of those for the aforementioned Darvish and Snell.

    Maybe Snell can go more than 5. But, if you look at his game logs, he consistently reaches the 90+ pitch mark around the 5th inning. You talk about Urias getting out of the first innings in less than 40 pitches, but even Urias pitches deeper into games than Snell. Maeda was criticized for not being efficient enough with the Dodgers, and again he has been more efficient than Snell. Snell had that one great year, but what has he done in all the other years he has pitched? Even last year, which would have been Snell’s second best year, you can argue that May, Gonsolin and Urias were all better in pretty much every area except strikeouts.

    I think the Padres are going to be slightly worse than they were last year. I expect regression to the mean for Wil Myers, Machado and Cronenworth and to some extent Hosmer.

  4. San Diego’s improvement could be the best thing for the Dodgers. “Iron sharpens iron” and a grueling regular season could make LA more playoff ready.

  5. Maybe we are over-thinking this. Here is a fairly simple way of asking/answering the question:

    1) Are the Dodgers a better/worse/similar team compared to last year? We have lost some valuable role players, but are gaining a quality mid-rotation starter. Other than that the team is largely the same. I would say this team is not substantially better or worse than last year. Let’s call it similar.

    2) Last year, this team won at a clip that was equivalent to 116 wins over a full 162 game season. Before you claim that this number is inflated due to a weak schedule, they had the same winning percentage in the playoff games which is presumably against the top competition in the league. By the time you add in all the playoff games, it is very near to a half season worth of games, so the sample size is not all that small either.

    3) If you accept my points above, we are expecting to field a team which is similar to one that put up one of the best performances (in terms of win %) in the history of MLB. So the question becomes, are the Padres/Braves/Mets going to field a team that is one of the best ever? I’ll believe that when I see it.

    So, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying I agree with MushersPop. As good as this team is, all that matters is what the Dodgers do.

  6. Excellent analysis Jeff. I too am usually a homer. I wish I knew how it would all play out. What i do know is that the stats for several players from 2020 were less than stellar. Some guys like Myers were better than they had been for a couple of years. Pollock was that way too. Others struggled a lot, Max, Belli. Buehler had his blister problems, Kelly was wild, Jansen good, then bad. Once Mookie got comfortable he was as consistent as they come. Seager just played his best baseball. And now it is a new year. So, none of us have a clue how it is going to play out. Me, I try to be realistic about things. There have been seasons in the past when looking at the roster, and comparing it with others around the league, I knew the Dodgers would have a tough time competing. I know this team will be in the thick of things. Most on the roster have a good track record. But as always, you cannot predict injuries, or a fall off in performance. Huge questions are no where close to being answered yet. And until I see who is going to Camelback, it is a little premature to speculate on who will be where when they break camp at the end of spring. AF could still surprise us all with some mystery move. Then again, they could stand pat and wait for the deadline. So I am just waiting to see who is on the 40 man when they head to Arizona, which now is about 3 weeks away from happening.

  7. Good read. I still believe we are better, and what makes us better is our coaching staff, not only Roberts, but Prior, our hitting coaches, etc. The way they prepare the players before each game,
    All this prep and culture comes down from Friedman and Kasten, and we see this in the field.
    Padres are good but missing the winning culture.

  8. Lots of question marks going into the season for both teams. That’s why they play 162 games. Who wants it more? Who’s put in the time this off season to get better? Who’s gonna bring it day after day. The Padres want it bad. You can see how they played last year. Can the Dodgers bring the same intensity as last few years after winning it all last year? Who gets hit worse with the injury bug? The Padres are certainly good enough to beat us. And that’s what makes it fun! Those are gonna be 18 intense games. I love it!

    1. Couldn’t do that anyway. They still would have to include the entire west. So SD and SF are on that schedule. And the Giants always play the Dodgers tough no matter how bad they might be.

  10. When it came to the nitty gritty, LA put them away handily. Will it be the same? No, they are improved. But I know this for a fact. SD’s starters as lined up right now are 2-9 with 2 no decisions against LA in their careers. Musgrave himself is 0-3. The Dodgers starters, as projected right now are 31-10 against San Diego. 21 of those wins by Kershaw alone. Blake Snell shut LA down and was pulled by his manager after a measly single by Barnes. Reason? He did not want Snell facing the lineup a 3rd time around, for good reason. The 3rd time through the order, Snell usually gets hammered. Those are the stats. Darvish is probably the better of the two right now. He is coming off of a very good season. But he also pitched in a weak division. So maybe his numbers are a little skewed too. Snell at least faced some tough teams. The Dodgers did what they had to do with the schedule that MLB layed in front of them. It was a bastardized season, and they were the top dog when it was over. Their toughest fight was the Braves. And it took a combined team effort to come back and win that series. But they did it. It also was aided by some questionable base running on the part of the Braves, who with the lead in game 7, lost a run because Ozuna left base too soon. Had it been 4-2 instead of 3-2, Kike’s homer would not have tied the game. But the stars aligned, they got clutch hits, plays in the field and pitching out of the pen, and they went to the World Series and won, despite an epic comeback in game 4 by Tampa. They are the defending champs. Never a good position to be in because there is a huge target on their backs, and the pressure to repeat. Something no team has done since the Yankees did it. The Dodgers have a huge fan base, but they also are one of the more hated franchises in baseball. Why? People just dislike a team that keeps winning. Happened to the Yanks for years. They want their team to be that team. They just get tired of getting beat. Over their history, the Dodgers have OWNED SD. Fans in San Diego are tired of it, and they believe in their team. No less than we believe in ours. Are they better than last year>? On paper, yep, no doubt, they have added some top flight talent, and so far the Dodgers have not felt compelled to match their moves. Maybe they need to, maybe they do not. Only time and games being played will teal. Jeff’s positional analysis makes some good points. Based on past performance. I would make SS a push simply because Corey’s offense is more consistent. I give Tatis the edge with the glove. But he is cocky, and so is Machado. I take away points for lack of sportsmanship. Overall, SD’s offense is very close to LA, and without Turner, even closer. But like I said, until I see who heads to Camelback, comparing the teams is nothing more than exercise.

  12. Looks like AF will have a little extra time to manipulate his roster.
    Arizona has just advised MLB that they don’t want ST to start on time. Az has the worst Covid infection rate in the US as of today.

    Yanks trade Ottavino to the Red Sox. Great move for NY as he was earning a fair amount this year (9 mil). It will be interesting to see the terms of the trade because Ottavino is definitely not worth his salary based on 2020. I expect that Friedman will attempt to do something similar with Kelly before the season starts.

  13. No.

    Next question.

    Good analysis Jeff. I agree on Corey Seager. Think David Price will be good, so will Yu Darvish.

    I also believe the Dodgers will have a better bullpen than last year. Still not done, but expect a surprise or two with relievers already added.

    Pretty good starting rotation with some depth and the line-up is not half bad. Expect Justin Turner to sign this week. There are persistent rumors that the Dodgers will also sign Marcus Semien. Play a little third, short and second, maybe DH. Another right hand bat. We’ll see. Still think LA may add a couple of more relievers before spring training. Deals to be had.

  14. There is a good article at Dodgers Nation authored by Tim Rogers on five up and coming prospects, not widely known. Simply as a preface, I consider myself someone who follows prospects from the day they are drafted or signed as International Free Agents, as knowledgeable and passionate. I do not just follow LAD prospects but love all of MiLB. But I have a good understanding as to who the prospects are by watching tons of MiLB games and tons of video. I watch more MiLB games than MLB. But as far as knowledge of Dodger prospects, while not nearly at the level of national prospect evaluators, I think Tim Rogers and Dustin Nosler are two of the very best in Dodger blogs.

    This AM Tim wrote about five lesser known prospects with a lot of helium: Alex De Jesus (ADJ), Ryan Pepiot, Jake Amaya, Nick Robertson, and Robinson Ortiz. These names should not be a surprise to anyone at LADT. I have written quite a bit on the first three as I have been following them throughout. Harold was a big advocate for Nick Robertson, much more so than I was. His summer moved his needle bigtime. And I never got overly excited about Robinson Ortiz, but he could turn out to be a huge gem in the Dodgers arsenal.

    They are not long pieces on any of the five, but it is clear that these five could be the fastest moving prospects (not universally known) in the organization. Below is a link to the article (if you have not already read it). And Bluto, it is a free site.☺

    https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-5-possible-prospect-surprise-stories-for-2021-jacob-amaya-alex-de-jesus-more/2021/01/25/

    1. I know a couple of people very close to the game who believe Amaya and Pepiot will play roles in 2021 for the Dodgers at the MLB level. One even thinks Ortiz might make the show in 2021.

      1. Just my opinion. I think highly of Amaya, and he is not nearly ready for the Show. 2022 is as early as he is going to be. I do not think it is likely, but I can see Pepiot making it up. It will be hard for any prospect who starts out at AA or A ball to make it to MLB since their season could start 6 weeks after AAA and MLB. I really have not followed Ortiz that much to know. We will know more once ST is on us and the rosters are more set to see who is invited to ML camp. Those will be the guys that will get the first look.

  15. They advised MLB< does not mean MLB has to listen. A decision will be made soon no doubt. The county has no control over what businesses do. And MLB is a business. If the Governor shuts it down, different story.

  17. One thing which might be worth considering,, is which franchise will be more likely to make a key trade or acquisition mid-season. As we know, these can make a difference. The rosters to start the season are important, but not definitive. Based on recent trends, it seems more likely that the Padres would pony up to pick up a major player. So far, the Dodgers have picked up a reliever who has not been good since 2018,, and one who has not since 2017. Price does count as an addition, but he has not had a good year since 2018.

    I do realize that the Dodgers won the championship, and beat the Padres in three games in the playoffs. But San Diego has really upgraded, and they were not that far away from the Dodgers during the greatly shortened regular season. And if we lose Turner, that is an equalizer, too. My best guess right now is that San Diego is about as good as we are, and has a good chance to win the division. Of course, if Bellinger goes back to the way he was in the first half of 2019, we are the better team. But if he continues to hit the way he has in the second half of that season, and during last season, we may not be. And we need Buehler to be healthy and as good as his potential shows him to be; that is, a 20-game winner. Ultimately, it is going to come down to a playoff series between the two teams, so how they are then, what additions and injuries there are, will be more important than how they look right now.

  18. Semien could play 3rd in 2021 and replace Taylor and/or Seager through the rest of his contract. Just saying.

    I still would like to add another righty bat and would like Friedman to find a package that included Muncy for Voit.

  19. If revenues are down again in 2021 which is most likely which teams will really be competing with us to sign Seager? Especially if the Mets sign Lindor and Astros resign Correa. Maybe the Giants and Rangers. 250-300 mil per season cancels out a lot of teams looking for a shortstop.

    1. Jorge, just what about the Padres has you so angry? I have never seen this much venom thrown at Giants or Yankees or Cardinals, which are probably the three most hated teams by Dodger fans. I do not like Machado at all. I can’t stand Trent Grisham. Get used to guys like Tatis. That is all about “Let the Kids Play” mantra. I think he is an exciting player. Not at the level of Lindor, but he is in the same time zone. As is the Braves Acuna. Great kids. Great for baseball. I love MacKenzie Gore. I think he is going to be special. I very much look forward to the Buehler vs Gore matchups. Even better than the Kershaw Bumgarner matchups. I love the City of San Diego. It is a nice ballpark, one that Dodger fans have taken over. Baseball is fun when there are great interdivisional rivals. In a couple of years, the NL West could have three of the top handful of teams in MLB when SF gets their overpriced old men off the payroll and their kids come up. They will have a boatload of $$$ to spend. Baseball is fun when there are rivals.

      2. I’m not speaking for Jorge, but I understand his ire for the Padres. I don’t share that ire. I think it’s great for another team to try to challenge us after the D-Backs and Rockies failed at so miserably.

        I think you hit the nail on the head with you mention of Machado. It was a bad look that he didn’t want to run out balls and his comment about it. His failure to make a difference on our team when he was here. Then to sign in division and stupidly making a bet that the Padres would win a World Series before the Dodgers. Well, that didn’t age well and he had no intention on fulfilling on his side of the bet. That wasn’t enough. He got really mouthy during the post season against us last year while being humiliated in a sweep and double digit drudging to sent the Padres home after game 3.

        You also mentioned Tatis. Let the kids play, then apologies for hitting a grand slam. Brown uniforms, etc. I can see why Jorge loathes them, even if I don’t feel the same way.

        I’m glad Jorge has some passion on the matter. It will be fun during the upcoming season which can’t start soon enough. We won’t have to wait long for the showdown either as we’re schedule for Road and Home series against them in Mid to late April.

        1. I have no problem with Jorge’s animus towards the Padres, nor to the extent thereof. I just never heard it expressed in such a manner towards the Pads, or even more natural rivals like the Giants, Yankees, or Cardinals. I was curious if there was any specific reason for his feelings. I have been to Candlestick and then Pac Bell/SBC/AT&T/Oracle Park with Dodger jersey and hat, and got a lot of fun ribbing thrown at me, but never any anger, even after the Bryan Stow incident at Dodger Stadium.

  21. I think it is possible that if JT does not re-sign, the Dodgers might stand pat until the Trade Deadline.

    I have heard from several people, including MLB’s Ron Darling, that the ball is coming out of Price’s hand better than ever and Darling picks him to be the Comeback Player of the Year.

    1. I have heard the comments about Price from Darling as well. On his twitter video, the effort was non-existent, the glove did not move, and it popped. My only fear is that Price generally comes into the season ready to go, and then something pops up. But I am excited to see what Price can do. He is going to go up against the opposition’s #3, and that should give the Dodgers a clear advantage.

      1. At worst, Price eats innings in the first half which helps the pitchers that haven’t yet thrown 100 innings get through the season.

    2. I’m really excited about David Price. I try not to put too much stock in that video, but man, the ball just seemed to come out effortlessly, the glove popped and the catcher didn’t have to move it at all. He has a hell of a pitch mix as well and he’s got a big and durable body.

  22. Excellent comparison Jeff between San Diego and the Dodgers on paper. I appreciated your attempt to be unbiased. I will give the SD braintrust credit. They have made moves to try and get better and beat us. They had a premier organization for talent for a few years and have developed it or used it to assemble a very nice team.
    But Jorge Valenzuela pretty much captured my feelings about how they play. I love Jorge. You can count on him speaking his feelings and not sugar-coating it.
    I want to kick around one comparison made by Jeff where he said “None of Matt Beaty, Luke Raley, or Zach Reks are an improvement over Joc.”.
    I think that’s an apple to orange comparison. Joc platooned with AJ Pollock. Is anyone suggesting that either Beaty, Raley or Reks platoon with Pollock now? Why not just let Pollock be the left fielder? Pollock is a career .280 hitter without serious career splits. When healthy he had a nice last year. Start him there and leave him alone.
    Joc haș been a favorite for many on this site. But not me. I see him as a .230 career hitter with 130 homers and 600 strikeouts. Last year he looked out of shape, didn’t hustle, and pouted about the attempt to trade him. Some lauded his post season performances where he hit .272 with 9 homers. He also struck out 32% of his AB’s in post season. He did have some clutch moments that people remember but I won’t weep over his departure.
    My pet peeve this winter has been MLB’s failure to decide on the universal DH. With (maybe) 3 weeks before pitchers and catchers report, there’s still no decision as this and it’s become a political football. It’s bullshit.
    The league views the 15 DH jobs as an economic gain for the players and wants a trade off. The Union has opposed expanded postseason, service time, pitch clocks and the ABS system. So, WE WAIT. Wait on something that practically everybody wants while they play political games over the DH.

    1. Fair question on Joc. I included that because the Dodgers have not addressed the loss of Joc, and I have not heard anything about replacing him. I assume that AF expects Beaty, Raley, or Reks to be that LH bat, and none of them are anywhere close to comparable. Like you, I do not see AJ platooning next year. Joc has a career OPS of .806. His career postseason numbers are .272/.349/.503/.852. Who replaces him?

      1. Reks and Beaty will be 28 this year and Raley will be 27. It would be a surprise if one makes it. It would also be a surprise if one makes it BIG TIME. If I had to guess, I would bet on Reks, but they relly are the same guy!

        1. I’ll need help as I am totally blanking out on the moniker Michelle used in here. She would never let me say anything positive about Joc without a rebuttal.

          1. Yeah Bum, if you’re saying I have nothing nice to say about Joc, you’re right. It’s nothing personal. I hope he’s happy elsewhere. Many folks love him. I didn’t. I don’t find that particularly odd. There are lots of civil conversations about players on this sight. Mine was one.

    1. Correct me if I am wrong but I don’t think players get a salary for playing playoff games. They might get a percent of revenues. Players don’t want to give the owners something they want like additional playoff games without getting something they want. Players say owners want the DH as much as they do so that is not something they would trade for more playoff games.

      The Owners are going to suffer revenue loss due to Covid and for me, I think players need to help owners get through one more year and if more playoff games do that, then agree to do it.

      1. You are correct. The players do not get paid for the playoffs. Their contract calls for salaries to be paid during the “Championship Season”, which is Game 1 through Game 162. Right now neither side is negotiating in good faith. There is no trust on either side.

        1. Under the traditional structure (i.e. pre-2020), players’ postseason shares are tied to gate revenue, while teams collect 100 percent of television revenues. Last year, in the absence of fans, players agreed to an expanded, 16-team playoff field that saw $50MM of television revenues divided among players.

  24. Some here have stated that they don’t care about what the Padres have done, but only about what the Dodgers do.

    1 – What the Dodgers do or have to do has to be viewed in context. A context where the Padres face 2021 with the same team that they had in 2020 is different than a context where the Pads add Snell, Darvish and Musgrove to their rotation and Kim to their infield. A better Padres team means that the Dodgers have to be better to win in 2021.

    2 – The Dodgers have essentially done nothing. They resigned Treinen and a bunch of injured or untested types and lost guys who actually contributed to the team’s success over the past several years, like Kike, Joc and Pedro. Yeah, they are going to be good again of course, but successful teams look to improve each year and I can’t honestly say that the Dodgers, as they are postured right now, are going to be better than the Dodgers of 2020.

    3 – Other websites remind us that Mookie Betts was not acquired until February, so the Dodgers still have time to upgrade. Notwithstanding the flotsam and jetsam obtained in furtherance of the bullpen, I doubt that the Dodgers are done tinkering with the ‘pen. There are also the issues of 2B or 3B and another impact RH bat.

  26. Every team in baseball seems uber concerned about staying under the luxury tax this year. I think it’s more than just finances. If that’s the case then only JT gets signed and another cost cutting move gets made.

    1. The same conspiratorial thought crossed my mind. I think there is a reason why JT has not yet been signed. It certainly appears that teams are considering $210MM a salary cap and not a threshold.

      1. It’s sure starting to look that way. Yankees just sold Ottavino’s contract to the BoSox to create cap space.

        I’m wondering if the other (new) bat we see this year besides JT returning is DJ Peters.

        Hope we get to see baseball in 2021 as 2022, I fear, will be strike shortened at best

  28. This is just my opinion only. I think the Dodgers offense is going to be good enough that Doc can experiment with the youngster position players on the 40 man roster. One thing I do like about Doc and I may be wrong about this, but it seems like he gives young up-and-coming guys opportunities during the regular season. I think we are going to see plenty of that this year. Especially right handed hitting DJ Peters. But I still want Friedman to sign a free agent right handed hitter such as Justin Turner.

    1. Really quick. I’m VERY EXCITED about the Dodgers offense, especially if Friedman signs Turner or someone better. Even if he doesn’t I’M VERY EXCITED.

      The bullpen I’m not excited about. But it will be decent in my opinion.

      Starting pitching will be good.

      1. Really quick again. Friedman does a really good job building offense and starting pitching. The bullpen is where he needs to improve.

  29. Eric you only have so much money to spend. You can’t pay for all stars at every position. So AF chooses the bullpen to be a lower financial priority because it’s the most unpredictable part of a team. Look back at what happened to Colorado a few years ago when they went all in financially on their bullpen. I’ll bet you one of a AF’s low ball signees hits it big next year. Nelson could prove AF a genius next year. You heard it here first!

  30. I don’t believe bullpens are the most unpredictable part of a team. I believe you can build a good bullpen.

    Colorado will never have a good pitching staff due to that thin air in Colorado. So using that as an example doesn’t cut it.

    Other than those two things I hear what you are saying. Of course you can’t have all stars at every position.

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