There has been a lot of discussion as to what is the best way to develop a team; a team for sustained contending. Most LAD fans believe that AF builds his team for success from within. Others believe organizations can build a winning team by trading prospects for young controllable MLB stars. Others believe they need to sign affordable free agents. Most believe you need a bit of all the ingredients. But how are many of these teams actually built. I looked at the 40 man and projected 26 man rosters of 12 teams, most of which are considered contenders (or could be with a couple more additions). The source for the information comes from FanGraphs Roster Resource.
40 Man Roster Construction:
| Team | Draft | Intl FA | FA | Trade | Rule 5 | UDFA |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dodgers | 18 | 7 | 5 | 10 | ||
| Padres | 6 | 6 | 6 | 22 | ||
| Braves | 13 | 6 | 9 | 10 | ||
| Mets | 15 | 1 | 11 | 10 | ||
| Giants | 11 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 1 | |
| Cardinals | 14 | 9 | 5 | 10 | ||
| White Sox | 19 | 3 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Rays | 4 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 1 | |
| Jays | 15 | 8 | 3 | 13 | ||
| Yankees | 7 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 1 | |
| Astros | 14 | 13 | 3 | 10 | ||
| Angels | 10 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
The international free agents are those signed directly from the international pool (i.e. KJ, Keibert, Julio, VGon, etc.) Players like Fernando Tatis Jr. may be an international free agent signing, but he was acquired by the Padres from the ChiSox via a trade for James Shields. IMO draft and international free agent are players signed and developed by the signing team.
Projected 26 Man Roster
| Team | Draft | Intl FA | FA | Trade | UDFA | Open |
| – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dodgers | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | ||
| Padres | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | ||
| Braves | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 1 | |
| Mets | 11 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |
| Giants | 6 | 1 | 13 | 6 | ||
| Cardinals | 11 | 4 | 4 | 7 | ||
| White Sox | 10 | 3 | 6 | 7 | ||
| Rays | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | |
| Jays | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | ||
| Yankees | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 | |
| Astros | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | ||
| Angels | 5 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
The Open column indicates that the 26 man roster has players who have not yet been identified, or are projected MiLB Non Roster Invites that should win the position, but are not yet on the roster. NYY has 41 on the 40 man and 27 on the 26 man because I have included DJLM on both rosters even though the signing is not yet official because a roster space has not been cleared. I have no idea who is going to be moved off the current rosters.
One can make their own conclusions. The Astros have developed more from the draft and international free agents than any other team, followed by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Jays, and White Sox.
It is hard to figure that the Dodgers will be much different while AF is in charge. Other than their own free agents, I think the Dodgers have signed two multi year free agents; AJ Pollock and Joe Kelly. Hill, JT, KJ, Kershaw, Treinen were all LAD players before signing new FA contracts. They have generally not been the outbidding team for other team’s free agents. That is why Kirby Yates is a legit longshot, with multiple teams believed to be chasing him.
Next musing, with respect to the wild wild bullpen discussions, James Click (Assterisks GM) recently said about a 9th inning closer :
“It’s something that I think all of us would like to have, and it can certainly make you feel better about your bullpen than if you don’t have someone who maybe has done it in the past. However, there are always guys who step up into that role every year. There are new closers every year, and our young talent on this roster did an impressive job last season in stepping up in some roles that, if we’re being honest, I don’t think that we thought that they might have been ready for, and our hand was forced because of a lot of different reasons.”
That is what many of us have stated on this site. Relievers are fickle and VERY unpredictable. Eric said that Bear was looking at the wrong stats. It was not said out of disrespect, but to tell someone that he is looking at the wrong stats because he does not believe that OPS against RHB and against LHB is the preeminent stat that GMs must follow does not seem appropriate. Can’t we just say that fans (GMs) look at DIFFERENT stats; not wrong. Many GMs believe that K/BB ratio is a far more important stat. Some believe that ground ball ratio are more important. I tend to look at FanGraphs pitch value and plate discipline. Many are now looking at a new metric, QOS+, a metric designed by a sabermetrics nerd, Ethan Moore. He is changing the moniker to xRV, expected Run Value. By the way, that is a metric that many believe gives Tony Gonsolin a lofty evaluation.
It is very detailed and not an easy read, but he explains it in the article below. It is a perfect insomniac cure.
https://towardsdatascience.com/revamping-my-pitch-quality-metric-66cb2dbe8d8a
I do not pretend to have any more knowledge than Eric or anyone else. He has his metrics which he follows, and I have mine. Bear and Mark have theirs. We draw our own conclusions. But if AF chooses to not pursue Eric’s current top relievers, Joakim Soria and Sean Doolittle, will he send an email to AF telling him he is just not looking at the correct stats? Since AF has never been seen as a pursuer of either pitcher, it is hard for me to believe that either will be donning LAD blue for 2021. AF had his chance for Soria when they acquired Alexander, and chose Alexander. Right or wrong, we have some idea who AF prefers.
Why does AF continue with Kolarek? There are multiple articles indicating his value not just against LH batters, but also because of the soft contact and ground ball ratios against all batters including RH batters. His Dodgers numbers have been excellent no matter what his career OPS numbers state. He is 5-0 with 8 holds and no blown saves as a Dodger. He is a Dodger because of his ability to get elite LH hitters like Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman out. If that means he has to pitch around a RH batter and induce a weak hit ball (even a hit), so be it. He seems to be doing it just fine.
Dylan Floro – He is not a late inning high leverage reliever and should not be judged as if he was. Floro has been very inconsistent, but last year he started to develop a new pitch…a changeup. The changeup changed his whole approach to LH batters. He seemed to lose some focus of RH batters which he dominated for most of 2018 and 2019. But that change against Randy Arozarena in the 2nd inning of Game 6 could have changed the entire outcome of the WS. Three changeups…three strikes…sit down Randy. That changeup should help to make Dylan Floro a different pitcher going forward. As can be displayed in the article below, Floro was still in the elite group in exit velocity, hard hit %, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, and barrel %. He is not a strike out pitcher, so he needs to keep the ball on the ground and weak ABs, which he is doing.
Eric may not agree, but AF seems to like Adam Kolarek and Dylan Floro, and is not enamored with either Joakim Soria or Sean Doolittle. I think I am going to get behind the architect of the team that has been in the WS 3 out of the last 4 years. IF AF decides to lure either to LA, I will then say that Eric was correct in who AF should look for.
Next musing. I think it is a bit funny. The conversations going on here about the Padres catching LAD but still chasing them. On paper, LAD is better than SD. Of course Padres fans feel differently. If SD does xxxxx (i.e. sign Masahiro Tanaka), and LAD does not sign JT, then the Pads will have caught them on paper. That is the same dialogue going on other sites between Braves and Mets fans. The exact same dialogue. “If the Mets sign Springer and the Braves cannot replace Ozuna, the Mets will be the better team.” But the game is played on the field, not on computers or blogsites. With both the Mets and Pads improved for 2021, it is going to be a fun season to follow. We will have to ask Badger what the over/under is on how many times fans on this site will be calling AF a moron for not improving the team more.
Finally, I would like to address what DodgerLover said about FanGraphs and their prospect listing. DL took exception to Wilman Diaz being rated over Kody Hoese (amongst others) and Jesus Galiz over Luis Rodriguez (amongst others). Prospect lists are at best guesses with what information that is available, and what the authors have actually seen. Eric Logenhagen is the author for FanGraphs Dodger lists, and he is very well respected. Is his list better/worse than Kyle Glaser (BA) or Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo (MLB Pipeline)? Not better, not worse. Just opinions. All three use future values (as they see them) to set their lists. Fangraphs is a bit different as they generally rate players in groups based on their FV (future value). Most lists are capped at all players with a 35+ FV. The Dodgers have 49 such players with two of the recent International Free Agents being added. We do not yet know where BA or MLB Pipeline will list Diaz and Galiz. It is entirely possible that both will be rated just as high as Logenhagen has.
What is Future Value? Per Logenhagen’s ratings, “broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service.” Based on his ratings Wilman Diaz has a FV of 45, the same as Hoese, Cartaya, De Jesus, Vargas, Jackson, and McKinstry.
Per Logenhagen, he rates current value and future value. The first grade is the current value in Logenhagen’s grades:
- Hit – Diaz 25/60; Hoese 35/50
- Raw Power – Diaz 40/50; Hoese 50/50
- Game Power – Diaz 20/50; Hoese 35/55
- Run – Diaz 60/60; Hoese 45/40
- Fielding – Diaz 40/50; Hoese 45/50
- Throw – Diaz 50; Hoese 50
Diaz is rated slightly above Hoese in Logenhagen’s grading scale due to his future hit and run grade. The only skill Logenhagen gives Hoese the FV edge is in Game Power. He also gives Diaz an edge as he is considered far advanced for his age, but is still 6 years younger than Hoese.
This is what Logenhagen writes about Diaz:
His frame isn’t as angular and projectable as the other top-of-the class infielders but Diaz is the best pure hitter among them. While there’s not overt power projection on the frame, you can project more future in-game power from Diaz because he’s an explosive rotational athlete whose backswing threatens to clip the mask of the catcher behind him. He’s arguably a bit safer than some of the other top amateur shortstops in our international rankings because of how he’s hit in games.
His comments on Hoese include:
He’s not tooled up and doesn’t have huge raw power, even with a healthy wrist. Instead he’s a very athletic swinger with a quick bat, whose swing is geared for airborne contact. That should help him get to power in games even though there’s not huge raw. Hoese will need to attain a balanced hit/power combination to profile at third base, but the Dodgers have had internal conversations about trying him in the middle infield (they tried him there a bit during the Fall), which is obviously an easier bar to clear. His already odd, slow developmental track was further warped and flagged by the pandemic, and the soon-to-be 24-year-old has yet to see an at-bat above Low-A.
Diaz was considered the best infielder in the International prospects, and generally by a wide margin because of his advanced hit skill. He is athletic enough to stay at SS, but some believe he could grow out of his position. Mark has astutely agreed that Hoese has a sweet swing, but there is more that makes for an everyday ML 3B. I think Hoese will grow into those, because of his work ethic and athleticism. Will he ever be more than an average hitter? Because of his airborne swing his speed (or lack thereof) should not hinder him too much.
It is not science, and it is certainly not foolproof. But he has justified his grade. Now only time will tell if Diaz will be as good as many project him to be. Also time will tell if Hoese will continue to develop into being a regular ML 3B/1B as he is projected. This will be a huge year for Hoese’s development.
I know DL is a fan of Luis Rodriguez, but every prospect evaluation has him regressing. This is what Logenhagen has to say.
Rodriguez is a feel and instincts center field prospect with advanced feel to hit and a medium frame. Though it caps his power projection, his modest size gives him a better chance of staying in center. He has table-setting, leadoff man characteristics, but is probably four or five years away from the big leagues. The lost minor league season meant the Dodgers sent most of their upper-echelon prospects to the alternate site and then Instructional League, which meant the Fall group skewed older. Rodriguez was not among them as he likely would have been in a typical year. He played instructional ball in the Dominican Republic instead, and still has a tweener fourth outfielder physical profile. But while he has a chance to make plenty of contact and exceed that role, his development has now been slowed by a year.
Rodriguez is still only 18 and should be able to get back on track, if the LAD development team can get him to listen. Hopefully the DSL will start on time and by the time the Rookie Leagues start up in Arizona, Luis will be in a position to come to the US and continue his development. But if he continues on his Jeren Kendall approach to hitting for power, he may find himself dropping down the prospect list like Kendall has.
Logenhagen, Glaser, Callis/Mayo give their prospect views as objectively as they can. They have seen almost all of the prospects personally, including last year during the Arizona and Dominican Instructionals. Of course they are not as glossy about Dodger prospects over others as Dodgers fans prefer. Most publications have Hoese as an average everyday player once developed. There is nothing wrong with that. But he does not grade out to be an All Star. He may indeed become an All Star proving the publications incorrect. Prospect lists are far from infallible. But because they do not agree with fans personal projections, especially when most have never seen any of them play, that does mean they are wrong either.
I am not sure how the arbitration rules work in determining who wins, but if the panel can review current year salaries in lieu of arbitration, then Luis Castillo’s agreed to salary in his first year of arbitration of $4.2MM seems to give Buehler and his team all the ammunition they need to win their $4.15MM arbitration case. Seems like a silly negotiating tactic to not give Buehler what he is asking for. Yes, I know it sets him up for higher pay days in years 2-4. Perhaps they should extend him out of the arbitration and a couple of free agent years. Give him a guaranteed base of $4.15MM and incentives. I do not think it is in LAD’s best interests to have a p’d off Walker Buehler in the rotation. AF sign JT and then make it right with Buehler.
Interesting read Jeff. I did not know just exactly how the 40 man played out. I agree on the relievers. Kolarek did a great job. He had a rough inning in the series and it skewed his stats, but Floro put himself in legend status with the K of Arozarena. Not the same kind of hitter, but reminded me of Bobby Welch and Reggie.
Reggie had the final say on that, and then some. Ouch x 3
Yeah, but they weren’t off of Bobby…
Never said they were. What I did say was Reggie had the final say, winning wars always better than winning battles.
True that. But it was one hell of a fight.
Thx Jeff. Super informative. So far AF has done a masterful job keeping the Dodgers near the top of the heap. Developing good young talent especially pitching seems to be a key. Still waiting on your analysis of Dodger payroll going forward and if there’s room for any big free agent signings down the road beyond keeping our core of young talent. Thx
It is coming. I was waiting to see where the numbers for arbitration were headed. As we found out, the Belling/Seager contracts were several million more than what was anticipated. Bellinger’s next two years could approach record numbers. If Buehler gets his $4.15MM, he too will be looking at the top of arbitration numbers for pitchers. What they get this year plays very heavily into the future arbitration years.
Old friend alert
per MLTR, Kyle Garlick was DFA’d by Phillies to make room for Archie Bradley
Traded last year to the Phillies for Tyler Gilbert who was taken by the D-backs in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft
I just read about that. Dodgers gave him a shot at least. Reports that the Dodgers are still looking at Semien.
We need baseball back. The crack of the bat, the smells and sounds of the game. Crowds cheering thier team on. We need this. It will help to heal a lot. For some, the offseason is just too long. I know when February rolls into town, I am ready. Even if it is just watching players take BP. I used to love being at Dodger Stadium when they used to open early enough for fans to see batting practice. That does not happen anymore. I caught more than a few balls during BP. Loved sitting in the left field pavilion. Usually close to the bullpen so I could watch the starting pitcher warm up. And occasionally the catcher would toss up a ball. Parking was 2.00. Seats were 2.50 and you could sit where ever you wanted out there. No assigned seating. The only person who sat in the same seat game after game out there was Frances Friedman. We used to call her the Garlic Lady. When ever the opposition would start a rally, Frances would start twirling a bag of garlic at them. She was a character. Had more hatpins on her Dodger jacket and hat than I had ever seen on anyone. The team loved her. I met her the night I sang the anthem. When they were taking me back under the pavilion to go back to my seat, she came down just to shake my hand. She was as much of a fixture at Dodger Stadium as Hilda Chester was at Ebbets. People like that make baseball special and fun. I remember the sign guy at Shea Stadium. Always seemed to have a sign for every occasion. The Browns had their Dog Pound in Cleveland, and there is that bunch of nuts who were always in the end zone in Oakland dressed up unbelievably weird. I miss the characters in the game. The ones who had quirks the whole league knew about. The human rain delay, Mike Hargrove. Banana Man Kike. I will miss his exuberance, but not his inconsistent bat. I miss Mannywood. If nothing else, Manny being Manny was entertaining as hell. I even remember when left field was Bakersfield because of Dusty. And although I do not miss his inconsistent play, I miss the Wild Horse because you never knew what he would do on the field. Yep, we need the game back.
I gotta clear things up Jeff.
“Eric said that Bear was looking at the wrong stats. It was not said out of disrespect, but to tell someone that he is looking at the wrong stats because he does not believe that OPS against RHB and against LHB is the preeminent stat that GMs must follow does not seem appropriate.”
I was talking about his use of wins and loses and ERA and any other meaningless stats that he used to evaluate a pitcher’s performance. He did use WHIP which is a good stat, but it doesn’t tell the whole story, it tells most of the story but not all. Then as far as GM’s are concerned, I don’t talk to any GM’s so I don’t know their thinking and I think it is ridiculous when anyone claims to know their thinking.
“But if AF chooses to not pursue Eric’s current top relievers, Joakim Soria and Sean Doolittle, will he send an email to AF telling him he is just not looking at the correct stats?”
The answer to that is a big NO.
“Right or wrong, we have some idea who AF prefers.”
More power to you if you know, but I NEVER claim to know Friedman’s thoughts.
“Why does AF continue with Kolarek? He is a Dodger because of his ability to get elite LH hitters like Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman out. If that means he has to pitch around a RH batter and induce a weak hit ball (even a hit), so be it.”
We just have a different opinion. Some people don’t like platoon players. I don’t like LOOGYs and ROOGYs in the 3 batter minimum era.
“Dylan Floro – He is not a late inning high leverage reliever and should not be judged as if he was.”
I don’t like labels, I just like good bullpens. I judge Floro like any other reliever, to do so differently is a cop out.
“AF seems to like Adam Kolarek and Dylan Floro”
Again more power to you if you know this. Suppose hypothetically one of them or both are traded?
“IF AF decides to lure either to LA, I will then say that Eric was correct in who AF should look for.”
That sure sounds like if you have an opinion, shut up until AF makes the move. AF is GOD nothing else matters including your opinion. I worship AF because he is GOD.
No disrespect to you Jeff. I didn’t write this with any intentions at all. I like your writings, I find them insightful or very good. I have no problem at all with you using anything I say. I just wanted to clear up somethings only.
Respect your opinion Eric, but just because I use stats you consider out dated, it does not mean they are wrong, it simply means that is how I evaluate players along with the eye test. And what I saw said those guys pitched effectively. It does not take a genius to see when a pitcher is struggling. AF is not God. AF is a very good talent evaluator and very good at finding bargains. Calling any mortal God is simply not true. I respect AF for what he has done, have not always agreed with his methods, and at first I really disliked most of what he did. But older fans like myself, look at the game a lot differently than you do. You can say we are lost in the past if you like, but in the past it was a much simpler game. Now, I believe many have complicated the game more than it needs to be. Launch angles, WAR, a stat for everything. But that is just my opinion. There is a scene in Bull Durham that makes my point very simply. The manager, upset with the way his team is playing, throws a tantrum in the locker room. And he says, it is a simple game, you see the ball, catch the ball and hit the ball. After all, that is what it comes down to. Some have the skills to do it a lot better than others. But the one stat that will never be found is for the drive, desire and work ethic needed to succeed at a kids game. Some have it in excess, others waste their talents.In your eyes, the way I evaluate players is wrong. Well, have been doing it that way since I bought my first pack of baseball cards and read my first box score. And to this day, I still do not see a column that says, WAR, WHIP or OBP> They do have them for runs, hits, BA, RBI’s wins, losses, saves, and oh yeah ERA. And you will be delighted to know that according to MLBTR, Soria is on the Mariners radar.
Just a couple of retorts.
1. I do not care what stats Bear was using in his analysis. It is irrelevant. You said they were wrong. Who decides if Bear’s analysis of relief pitchers is wrong, you? Because it is different from yours? Or mine. Or Mark’s. They are simply DIFFERENT. Mark and I differ all the time on relievers. I don’t say he is wrong. We just differ. BTW, I know a lot of baseball people really like SIERA as a pitching metric.
2. I do not claim to know what AF is thinking. But by his actions we can certainly get a feel. He could have Non Tendered both Kolarek and Floro to make room for Soria and Doolittle (or any other two pitchers he prefers). But he didn’t. And you are right, he could still trade them. But Kolarek has been with he team for a year and half and Floro for two and half. If AF did not think they had value, they would be gone. It isn’t that much money to walk away from if they did not perform how AF believed they would. Again, the Dodgers chose Alexander over Soria before the 2018 season. AF on more than one occasion has said that he likes ground ball relievers. Thus Alexander, Kolarek, and Floro. Soria is a fly ball pitcher. That works well in Oakland, but I am not sure how it would work at Dodger Stadium. So I think you can tell what AF looks for without being in direct contact with him. If he signs Soria, I will have no beef. Soria is a good pitcher. You and I just disagree that he is a better fit for the Dodgers than are Kolarek and Floro.
3. You do not like labels. The rest of baseball does. I assume you only want 9th inning closer types. Not everyone is a closer, and yet many relievers can succeed in the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Many of those same pitchers cannot handle the pressure of closing down the 9th in a close game. Not everyone can be Eric Gagne or Zack Britton or Kenley Jansen. There are closers, late inning setup, middle relievers, long relievers. Now FanGraphs is labeling relievers as multi inning relievers and single inning relievers, and then a further breakdown of single inning non high leverage and single inning high leverage. If the Dodger relievers were blowing saves or not holding leads, there is an argument that the pitcher was ineffective and should be optioned back to AAA. That is not the case with Kolarek or Floro. They perform well when asked. Maybe it is not always pretty, but they do not cause the team to lose.
I do not take anything anyone says to me when they disagree as disrespect. I have never thought that you have shown me any disrespect. The only time I have ever been annoyed is when you continue to bring up Osuna. I do not want that woman beater anywhere near the Dodger dugout. I do not care if he is capable of performing on an Eric Gagne scale. There are things far more important than winning a baseball game. Thank God that AF and LAD DO care about character.
What happened to the Dodgers being piggies? Why aren’t we in on Luis Castillo? Kershaw and Price sure aren’t getting any younger. Are we going to get punked out again by the Yankees? Are the Yankees our daddy? We need more pitching. I thought you wanted to go to the WS again AF. If you don’t want to give up prospects, sign Bauer. We have enough cripples now in the pen. Get a good starter and move a couple of kids to the pen.
Marcus Semien, come on, seriously?
Marcell Ozuna? …….Do the Dodgers really want a clown that stops at each base and takes imaginary selfie’s as they’re rounding the bases after a homer?
Why are we waiting around for a 36 year old 3rd baseman? If you want him, give him your best offer. If he declines, move on.
Gimme that old Kinks tune for AF. Tired of waiting for you.
Even pigs get full…..not sure what they even meant by that. And same thing as last year when all the buzz was that AF was pursuing top line talent. He did land one, Mookie.
I would be happy to get a relief pitcher with whatever stats Game Over earned at his peak. I also will let WHIP influence me in picking pitchers.
If the Dodgers could get the 2019 Marcus Semien for the cost of any other year Marcus Semien, I am all in.
Things I like to see when evaluating relievers:
1 – WHIP – you don’t want relievers giving up baserunners
2 – K/9 – sometimes you need a strikeout
3 – GB rate – sometimes you need a doubleplay
4 – Inherited runner strand rate – sometimes you have to bring a reliever in with runners on base
5 – Leverage – some pitchers don’t pitch well in late/close situations
6 – Blown saves
Notwithstanding the variability of relievers from year to year, I do look for track record too. The reason that I opposed the Dodgers’ signing Joe Kelly is that he has consistently not thrown strikes and he has been ineffective for months at a time – he has a track record of not being trustworthy.
Except when throwing at Astro hitters! Selective control!
Most important to me about relief pitchers that I evaluate them on (and I am by no means an expert), are:
Inherited runners on the bases and the success or failure of the relief pitcher to get out of the inning with no runs scored. I have mentioned before that the era stat should be split between the pitcher who put the runners on base and the relief pitcher who can not stop them from scoring.
Strikeouts to Walks ratio. Control.
I am not very knowledgeable on stats, especially beyond ERA and wins and losses, but those records tell me a lot.
Character and ethics also mean a lot to me for a player. No Azuna for me on this team EVER.
I agree DBM. I do think that ERA for a reliever is a bad stat simply because one bad outing can inflate it a lot. I think it is much more relevant when it comes to starters. That is why I am not down with those guys who average a plus 4 ERA who are starters. Now a reliever with a lot of innings and a low ERA I can be in on.
I meant Osuna.
It is Antonio Osuna DBM. Pitched for the Astros for a while. Difference between him and the charge leveled against Urias was that Urias’s girlfriend denied he hit her.
Roberto Osuna not Antonio.
My bad,,,,I am really bad with names sometimes.
Sorry Bear but look at the pictures of Osunas girlfriend. It was awful. Reports have it that Urias pushed his girlfriend down. Still unacceptable but he did not beat her up!
I agree, no similarity at all. I never did see pics of the girl friend
You would not forget them. They were devastating.
I bet they are Jeff. Seen some photos of other celebs lady’s and most look pretty bad.
Eric, you just come across as arrogant and disrespectful. I don’t understand the reason. Just because someone might disagree with you doesn’t make their reasoning meaningless. State your case and let it be.
Sorry I come across that way. Some people here come across that way to me.
When I used the word meaningless it was about using meaningless stats to evaluate pitchers. EVERYBODY knows win, loss, E.R.A are meaningless stats for evaluating pitchers. EVERYBODY.
Your opinion Eric. Not everyone feels that way. Especially when it comes to starting pitching. It makes sense for relievers. But like I said, the stat geeks making a simple game hard.
Those “stat geeks” have a lot better knowledge of player performance than the ordinary average person.
Maybe, they sure use the hell out of them. But the stats they use can be misleading. Kike was supposed to be a lefty killer according to the geeks. Not so much last year. I really do not care. I watch the game for the enjoyment of the game, if I sat there every night staring at the tendency’s of a certain pitcher or hitter in a certain situation, I doubt I would watch the game at all. All the stats in the world cannot determine the outcome of a game in real time. Bet you did not see Floro striking out Arozarena with a change up in the stats the geeks had on him. In real time, they mean nothing.
Just proving my point Eric!
Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres are trading for pitcher Joe Musgrove of the Pirates. Finally, some real baseball news.
Well the first baseball magazine of the year is out. Lindy’s Baseball Fantasy Guide. If you like Magazines with Dodgers on the cover, this one features Mookie.
Pirates getting 5 players for Musgrove . Also included in the deal is left hander Joey Lucchesi and Hudson Head, LH Omar Cruz, RH Drake Fellows and David Bednar. Nationals are talking to Jon Lester.
I am not sure I understand this one unless Joey Lucchesi is really unhappy in SD. I do not think he was happy when the Pads traded for Zach Davies, and I am sure he was really unhappy with Snell and Darvish. Regardless, take away last year, Lucchesi is Joe Musgrove except from the left side and they continue to trade away prospects. OF Hudson Head (#7), LHP Omar Cruz (#17), RHRP David Bednar (#20), RHSP Drake Fellows.
It appears that Lucchesi will have a short stop in Pittsburgh and be moving on to New York Mets for catcher/OF Endy Rodriguez (NYM #14).
Strange trade. This is one that may take a few years to grade to see how the kids the Pirates got turn out. Bednar is a reliever who should be in the Bucs bullpen this year.
Soria and Doolittle are not coming to La. Doolittle doesn’t want to go west if reports are accurate. Soria, too costly, aging, may not want the role he would be given, etc.
Relievers, you need a lot of them to get through the season. You need relievers who can give you innings, durable/work back to back days who matchup well with lefty/righty batters. Since you need so many they have to be cost/effective. You can’t have all the high priced relievers on one team Ike Colorado tried. Some guys just don’t perform well in early innings and vice versa.
You have to prepare for all roles and then try to obtain depth in those roles. All the while u have to convince players to accept roles. U can look at all the stats available but players aren’t robots u have to manage the mental side as well. To get through the season relatively healthy with your pen and then add one or 2 of urias, gonsolin, May, price really gives your pen quality depth. I don’t know this but I would say that if the dodgers could get morrow and kahnle healthy for October they would be ecstatic.
Is San Diego the only one working?
Baseball America published today their top 100 going into the 2021 season. The Dodgers have three, and none in the top 50. Keibert Ruiz (53), Josiah Gray (68), Michael Busch (87). This is Ruiz’s 4th consecutive year on the list, and Gray’s 2nd. It almost always takes catchers much more time to graduate to MLB from the prospect list. I would imagine that Kody Hoese and Diego Cartaya are somewhere between #100 and #120.
Three top 100 prospects is the least they have had since 2013.
After all the trades the Padres have made over the past year using their prospects, they still have 7 of the top 100 prospects per Baseball America, including 3 top 50.
LHSP – MacKenzie Gore (10)
SS – CJ Abrams (11)
C – Luis Campusano (36)
LHSP – Adrian Morejon (76)
SS/2B – Ha-Seong Kim (78)
LHSP – Ryan Weathers (84)
OF – Robert Hassell (85)
DBM and Bear are right on with the boys in the pen… If you’re a RP and sensitive about ERA, you’re in the wrong occupation…
I often say that as we go over all these needs, trades etc. etc. we miss/ignore my two favorite
steps for success… Luck and Health… It can turn a winning season into a nightmare…
We’ll sign JT and I’m sure AF is representing us, because he’s not stupid..
“That sure sounds like if you have an opinion, shut up until AF makes the move. AF is GOD nothing else matters including your opinion. I worship AF because he is GOD.”
So you’re having a good read with a cup of coffee or a cold one and Eric enters the arena…
He absolutely makes me shake my head and derails me from my train of thought and ponder one’s IQ…
An ancient Hawaiian phrase goes something like this: The higher the monkey climbs the palm, more of his ass is exposed….
Actually could have been a yukalaylee player in a luau band who had a bad batch of Primo beer…
Wow Peter. That is a gem. Yukalaylee? That some new form of Hawaiian torture. Have to ask my cousin’s hubby Conrad about that since he is a Hawaiian.
We all evaluate players differently. Us older guys use the tools we were raised with to evaluate players. Except those who have embraced the newer methods. And there are some here. I am old school. I embrace the stats I saw on the backs of my baseball cards, the stats that were posted in The Sporting News every week. I myself also trust my eyes a lot. I watch almost every game. And last season I did not miss many innings. It has been that way since I retired. I have the time, and certainly the energy to do so. And my question to the guys who simply rely on all the new stats, why are they any more valid than the way players were judged for close to 100 years? Oh, you can go back and use the stats that the old guys had and put WAR and WHIP and every thing else in there. They have gone back and added saves to relievers who while active never recorded one. Babe Ruth is 18 WAR points above his closest pursuer. Pitcher Walter Johnson. Barry Bonds and Willie Mays, the only two modern era players even close to Ruth, are still 30 and 36 points behind him. And both are the only modern era players over 150. Cy Young is 3rd in career WAR, The only active player with a WAR over 100 is Albert Pujols, and he is barely over at 100.7.
Only 3 other active players are over 70, Trout, Greinke, and Verlander. Kershaw is close at 69.6. Rating the players now is done by some complicated stats that usually are way too detailed for the every day fan to understand. I do not use fangraphs or any of the statistical sites. I just do not understand all of them. They are just too damn complicated for me. So when Eric says my stats are meaningless, he means they are meaningless to him. To me, they make a lot of sense. And since I have been using them for long before Eric was born, why should I change? Just to keep him from saying they are meaningless? Nope, does not make sense to me. They are meaningless in his world, not in mine. In mine they make all the sense in the world. Does his saying wins are meaningless when evaluating pitchers lessen the fact that Cy Young is the only pitcher who ever won more than 500 games? Were those wins meaningless in his era? Nope. Meant a lot, especially when it came to payday. Eddie Cicotte ended up being in on the Black Sox scandal because of a win. He was supposed to get a bonus from the owner and Comiskey did not pay him because he missed by one win. So he planned on getting his 10,000 dollars another way. That was the way the game was then. Now it is totally different. Strikeouts are not frowned upon nearly as much as they were. Eric sticks to his guns and believes he is right, that is his opinion and he is more than entitled to think that way, I respect that. Where he is wrong is to assume that I have to follow his lead and use the stats he uses for my own evaluations. If he had his way, there would be a very different looking bullpen in LA> I get it. I let AF do the brainstorming and signing. Then I just try to figure out after the fact, because you never know what will happen until it happens.
Lester to the Nats, one year plus an option.
Jeff, I found your analysis of how the Dodgers composed their roster, compared to other clubs, very interesting. LAD and the Padres are truly opposites in that respect, with our emphasis on drafts and international FAs, and the Padres’s on trades. Which strategy will work out better? Certainly over the long haul, you would expect AF’s strategy to work out better. Although the Pads have been able to retain their top prospects, they have depleted their depth. They seem to be going for a “win now” approach. The problem is that the odds of winning the WS – if that is your goal – are long, even for the best of teams. When the Dodgers were preseason favorites last year, their chances of winning it all were between 20% and 30%, according to various statistical models like Fan Graphs and 538. That means that a win now approach has a narrow window of opportunity. You only get your shot for a few years with all of the stars you traded for, who are under team control for a limited time. A few rolls of the dice. The Dodgers rolled the dice 4 times, and made it to the WS 3 of them, winning once. Thus, to play the odds, a strategy involving drafts with a larger talent pool and longer team control should yield more championships than a win now strategy.
Do you agree, Jeff?
Where the Dodgers draft every year, the number of elite prospects seem to dissipate. They have not had this low number of top 100 prospects since 2013. Even then, it was two top 50…Ryu (42) and Puig (47). If I were to be an optimist, I would think that the Dodgers will have 6 top 100 at midseason, with Hoese, Miller, and Cartaya joining Ruiz, Gray, and Busch. There are going to be a lot of graduates from the top 100 once the season gets going.
But the Dodgers do not have any elite prospects, and they have a boatload of RHP prospects all clumped together. Do they really need 13 RHP from their top 30? Could they have packaged multiple prospects for an elite player? We will never know, but it has never been AF’s way.
We will see at the end of the year if the Padres plan worked. But if you look deeper into the teams structure, the Dodgers top players (other than Mookie) are all becoming FA in the next 2-4 years, while the Padres top players are going to be team controlled for many years. The Dodgers on paper are still better than the Padres for 2021. But if the Dodgers lose Kershaw and/or Seager next year, they cannot be replaced with internal options. OTOH, the Padres only lose Tommy Pham, and maybe Craig Stamman, after 2021. After 2022, they lose Mike Clevinger and Matt Strahm. After 2023, they lose Darvish, Blake Snell, Wil Myers, Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, and Dan Altavilla. The Padres and their 7 top 100 prospects will undoubtedly make their ML debut during that time, and their window will remain open.
The Dodgers will be favored in 2021 and will continue to contend for the next several years. As of right now, the way the teams are structured, the Padres will be favored in 2022 and for the next few years thereafter. The Dodgers are going to need to re-sign all of their free agents just to stay even. With three Scott Boras clients in Seager, Urias, and Bellinger, how likely is that?
I think Preller has done a fantastic job turning quantity second tier prospects with a sprinkling of top tier (maybe two), to get quality players. The guys they got will help this year and next (at least). At some point, SD will run out of even second tier prospects, and they will have problems. With the Dodgers strategy, if they re-sign or replace their superstars, they will continue to contend because of their multitude of second tier prospects, but maybe continue to fall short. But they will remain relevant and have a chance to get hot at the right time.
Tyler Chatwood to the Blue Jays per Ken Rosenthal.
From Alex Wood Instagram account
awood45
Verified
@dodgers fans I’ve been so blessed to have spent 5 seasons in LA. Getting to come back last year and get a ring for the city of LA was the highlight of my career and I will forever be indebted to the city of Los Angeles and all of Dodger Nation.
Winning a championship isn’t easy. It takes every person involved from the top down doing their jobs to the best of their ability every day. I can’t thank my teammates, staff and our front office enough for all the blood, sweat and tears we all invested on the daily in order to make a childhood dream of mine come true. Going out with a W is the only way I ever saw my time in LA coming to an end. We did it and we’re all bonded for life because of it.
I’ve been so fortunate to play for 3 storied franchises and now I get add a fourth one to the list in the @sfgiants . I’m ecstatic to get started and to show everyone in the Bay what I’m all about. Getting to play for another incredible fan base is something I don’t take for granted and I’m looking forward to hopefully seeing everyone at the park this year!
Alex if nothing else is a class act. Always made me nervous watching him pitch and waiting for his arm to fall off. Got some info about the vaccine they are going to use here when they give us the shots this week. It is made by Pfizer. It is not approved by the FDA, no vaccine for Covid in the US is. They do not use any part of the Covid strain as an ingredient in the vaccine. They gave us a list of the side effects. I will go ahead and get it. Seems like a prudent thing to do. Have to get a booster in 3 weeks, and the vaccine does not guarantee you will not get the disease.
Good move Bear… I’ll be jumping on mine whenever it comes.. 74+y.o. with Kaiser and they say soon…
Most of the folks I know who have had it say the only side effect they had was soreness where they got the injection.
Mets GM Jared Porter sent unsolicited text messages and photo’s to a reporter in 2016. No word on whether the Mets will keep him around. That kind of thing, I highly doubt it.