The Status of the 2021 Free Agent Player

Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, and the BIG MARKET name, Francisco Lindor.  These four have a chance to be top tier in 2021, with Lindor in the elite class.  And they have all changed teams this offseason.  The first two names have moved the Padres into a top three NL and top four MLB team, while the second two names have moved the NYM to a significant NL East Contender.  If Noah Syndergaard comes back by mid-season as expected, the NYM post season rotation of Jacob de Grom, Marcus Stroman, Carrasco, and Thor has to be considered a threat to any team.  LHSP David Peterson would move into the bullpen.  This is not a Mets blog, but they have improved considerably since their 2020 season ended.  And like the Padres, they still have their top prospects intact.

With the trade, the Mets assumed 100% of the salaries for both Lindor and Carrasco, and moves them within $30MM of the CBT.  Will that hold Steve Cohen back from signing George Springer?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  We do not know where Cohen will stop his spending.  Springer’s asking price is now in the $175MM range, and that clearly has an impact.  Springer is 31 and a lot of his value comes from his ability to play CF.  How long can Springer remain an elite hitter and an above average CF?  Springer will need about a 21 WAR to justify a $175MM contract.  That is averaging a 5.25 WAR for 4 years or a 4.2 WAR for 5 years.

But that brings me to the focal point of this post.  Last week I speculated on what certain teams may do with free agency. But what is going on with free agency for the player?  The acquisitions indicated above were all consummated via by trade.  Snell and Darvish cost the Padres 7 current prospects plus a former top 100 overall and top 3 catching prospect in Francisco Mejia, and Lindor/Carrasco cost the Mets 2 top  prospects plus to former top 100 prospects.  Some teams are building prospect bases to move them for proven players, while some want to stay with their prospects and try to make changes with wise free agents.  Thus far the trades are taking center stage as it appears that organizations do not want to take on too many commitments.  After the revenue losses in 2020, and the total uncertainty of 2021, teams feel very reluctant to go past 4 years, and are not eager to commit to 9 figures.  Not to mention, the total uncertainty of the upcoming CBA negotiations.  Will the deal favor the players or the owners?  The MLBPA appears to have learned not to let Tony Clark get involved too deep into the negotiations, automatically increasing their odds for a more favorable deal for the players.  Thus perhaps widening the gap for the haves from the have nots?

Thus far, 13 of the top 50 free agents have signed, with another 6 “recognized name” free agents signed.  Or, barely twice as many potential difference makers have been signed compared to roster fillers.  With a little more than 5 weeks before the scheduled date for pitchers and catchers to report, there figures to be a few more moves sooner rather than later.

George Springer (Spotrac projected market value $25.7MM AAV)

Really only Toronto and NYM are currently considering him.  Sure there are going to be other teams that will call his agent and his agent will tell everyone how many teams are in on George Springer.  I get it.  That is the agent’s job.  Stir up interest where there is minimal. Springer is looking for$150MM to  $175MM.  The Blue Jays have reportedly made an offer, but it was south of $150MM. 

At five years, Springer would be earning $30MM per.  Realistic?  Not with my money.  $150MM is almost 19 WAR, while $175MM is nearly 22 WAR.  At $150MM, that is a 3.75 WAR for each of five years to break even, including two at 35 and 36. For his age 24-29 seasons, he accumulated 25.3 WAR, so  $150MM seems more plausible than $175MM, but still only a few teams can afford those prices.

Springer plays a skill position, and is rarely on the IL.  He is worth a financial gamble.  And with an .895 OPS in 292 PA, he is a playoff gamer.   He is especially clutch in 14 WS games where he batted .339/.456/.839/1.295 in 68 PA.  If he weren’t on the scum sucking cheating Assterisks, he would be someone I would be arguing for.

JT Realmuto (Spotrac projected market value $22.7MM AAV)

He has stated that he wants a 6 year deal, which makes sense.  He does not want to have to go through FA again at 32-33.  At 35, he may end up on a year to year negotiation.  But teams are not chomping on the bit to sign a 30 year old catcher for six years, especially this year.  As far as I can tell, there have been only four contracts in excess of five years:

• Joe Maurer (28) – 8 years – $184MM
• Buster Posey (26) – 8 years – $159MM
• Mike Piazza (30) – 7 years – $91MM
• Salvador Perez (26) – 6 years – $52.5MM
• Two five year deals:
• Russell Martin (32) – 5 years – $82MM
• Yadier Molina (29) – 5 years – $75MM

Where does JT Realmuto fall during a pandemic, uncertain 2021, and upcoming CBA?  He will be north of Yasmani Grandal’s 4 year $73MM.  But Realmuto’s biggest obstacle will be how many teams want his services? 

NYM was a potential landing spot, but after signing James McCann, they are no longer in the market for Realmuto. 

Washington – $46MM below CBT, but still with several needs.  Besides a catcher, they need a 3B, another starting pitcher, multiple relief pitchers, and another OF.  Players like Realmuto are really not a realistic opportunity.  Washington will probably look at the next tier of FA catchers: Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro, and Kurt Suzuki.

Los Angeles Angels – $36MM below CBT.  The Angels need pitching and more pitching, and even more pitching.  Max Stassi is a competent catcher, and the Angels need to use their available cash for starting and relief pitching. 

Toronto – Speculated to have and additional $75MM to spend.  Toronto has rumored to be a potential for every significant free agent on the market, including Realmuto.  However, catching is not a need for Toronto, but Realmuto could offer an opportunity.  Sign Realmuto, and move one or two or three of the catchers currently on the 40 man, including Alejandro Kirk. IMO, Toronto is more of a player for the other top free agents, but could become more interested in JTR once all other FA have been signed.

NYY – $35MM below CBT – The Yankees have Gary Sanchez, but there are rumblings that they would like a change. Brian Cashman has told everyone, they are not going to exceed the CBT.  He has made it clear the JDLM is their clear #1 target.  If the Yankees choose to move Sanchez, that should free up an additional approximate $6.5MM.  Regardless, NYY cannot sign DJLM and JTR. Signing DJLM should be a lesser AAV and should allow them to also sign Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi or James Paxton.

Philadelphia – $68MM below CBT – It has traveled a long way to get to the one realistic landing spot for JTR.  The problem is that Philadelphia is one of the big market teams that appears to have been significantly hurt by the decreased revenues in 2020, the uncertainty of the 2021 revenues, and  uncertainty of the upcoming CBA, and may have already exceeded the spending level they are comfortable with.  They need a SS, starting pitching (at least 2), and replace the worst bullpen in ML history. 

Of all the 2021 free agents, JT Realmuto may have been the most unlucky to have reached free agency for 2021.  IMO, JTR is not going to get a 6 year deal, and is also unlikely to reach 9 figures.  He should exceed Yasmani Grandal’s contract.  But by how much? 

Trevor Bauer (Spotrac projected market value of $22.8MM AAV)

He has reportedly asked for a five to six year deal for $36MM to $40MM.  The $36MM is not an arbitrary number.  It is the AAV that Gerrit Cole received last year.  Bauer is not shy saying he deserves everything that Cole has received.  Now who is going to meet that price tag?  Bauer has reportedly denied those amounts.  But it is clear that he wants to make one last contract run rather than multiple one year deals.  That was never going to happen, not even for a player with an ego the size of Bauer’s. 

The Angels are right on the edge if Bauer stays with his demands.    NYY would exceed the CBT, and still have needs.  Houston would stay $2MM shy but still need another OF (or two) and a catcher.  It feels like Toronto is the one team that can outspend any other team.  They have a history of buying a specific player at a price greater than their competition.  Think all the way back to 2020 when Toronto paid $80MM on 4 years for Hyun-jin Ryu.  They may not have been bidding against themselves, but they did make sure that nobody was going to outbid them.  Is that going to be true with Trevor Bauer?  Bauer is a game changer and with the Blue Jays youth, they immediately become a co-favorite with NYY in the AL East.  Even with Bauer, the Blue Jays could sign George Springer, or another starting pitching, or a couple of lockdown relievers, or Marcell Ozuna as DH, and stay under their budget. 

I do not see Bauer as a likely Dodger target.  I doubt that the Dodgers would consider more than a three year deal for Bauer.  He has not been a picture of consistency, and his “personality” may not be a fit in the Dodger clubhouse.  However, if Bauer wants to reconsider a shorter term deal, I do think the Dodgers might also reconsider, but neither is likely to happen.

DJLM (Spotrac projected market value $22.8 MM AAV)

It is the least secretive free agent rumor in the market that DJLM is the #1 target of the NYY.  They just have to come to terms with an amount both can live with.  The Yankees still need pitching, but they will decide the level of starting pitching depending on the contract amount they agree to with DJLM.  Toronto and LAD are the two other most rumored teams interested in DJLM.  If NYY balks, DJLM is the one player on the market that AF might exceed the CBT for.  DJLM would be a luxury and not a need for Toronto, but he is the one player on the market they could break the “rules” for. 

Of the top four free agents, three of the four free agents seem to have a realistic feel for their market value in “normal times”.  But these are not normal times, and the longer each of them wait, the less number of teams are going to be bidding on their services.  This year’s free agents look very similar to the JD Martinez market. 

Justin Turner – JT is reported to be looking for a four year deal.  That is not realistic for a body failing and aging 3B. He probably wanted a three year deal, and believed by starting at four years, he could negotiate down to three years.  It is going to take an overpay for a team to go to three years.  Because of his history with the Dodgers, he is a best fit with the Dodgers on a two year and option contract.  However, I did read a conjecture that because he is the union rep for the Dodgers, that he is likely to accept the highest offer.  To many associated with the MLBPA, their non-stated primary purpose is to make the most money they can in free agency. 

I think we will see some of the second tier free agents continue to sign.  Are the Angels better signing Jake Odorizzi ($14.1MM market value) and Masahiro Tanaka ($16.7MM market value)/James Paxton ($12.1MM market value) instead of Bauer, and still be able to sign a couple of lockdown relievers?  There are currently 14 starting pitchers and 6 relief pitchers remaining on the MLBTR top 50 free agents. 

With the Mets current offense, are they better off with signing Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF and another top reliever rather than George Springer?  While there is no current rumor, Kike’ Hernandez could fit in very well with that LHH lineup, and improve their defense immensely.  That would especially be true if Dominic Smith could be a DH with Brandon Nimmo moving to LF.  Or perhaps Kike’ could be the 2B with his countryman SS, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil moving back to the OF.

St. Louis could use a big bat like Michael Brantley, but they are more likely to sign Joc Pederson.  Brantley is the better option, but his estimated market value is about $15MM more than Joc.  The same is true for Miami.  Joc was a favorite for Mattingly while Donny Baseball was the manager for LAD. 

The White Sox are more apt to stay focused on Liam Hendriks and stay away from the big market free agents.

The free agent market continues to be a mystery.  Will next week bring a bevy of free agent signings, or will we continue to see teams improve by trading prospects for teams that need an infusion?  Or will we consider to see a continued slow paced offseason market. Whatever the Dodgers do (if anything other than signing JT), could come out of the blue.  I do not remember reading any notice about the Farmer trade, or free agent rumors for AJ Pollock or Joe Kelly or Blake Treinen (2020 or 2021) or Jake McGee before they happened.  AF is very tight lipped about prospective transactions.  With respect to the latest Blake Treinen signing, the Dodgers themselves were the first to break the news.  Not the usual sources of Heyman, Morosi, Rosenthal, Gurnick, etc.  When someone responded with the typical reply of…”source?”.  The Dodgers responded with “The Dodgers”.