It’s no secret that my “real job” is US Water Systems. I am in the water treatment business and am frequently consulted on water quality issues. Frequently, people with bad, nasty, smelly, well water ask me if I think they should drill a new well. I always remind them that if they drill a new well, they should expect one of three outcomes:
- You will get better water;
- You will get worse water; or
- You will get the same water.
Drilling a new well to fix your bad water problems only delivers a 33% chance of success. The odds are greater than you will get worse water or the same water. Where am I going with this? Here’s my point: Relievers are like wells. Whether a relief pitcher was good, bad, or mediocre one season is no guarantee of what he will be next season. They will either be better, the same, or worse.
The Dodgers recently re-signed Blake Treinen, as Andrew Friedman continues to collect bullpen pieces. Let’s look at the State of the Dodgers’ Bullpen with an eye to whether each pitcher might, be better, worse, or the same as last year. After the pitcher’s name, I will have an indication of what I think that either is, either an HL (high leverage) or BP (bullpen piece). It all starts with the Dodgers $20 Million Dollar Man:
Kenley Jansen (HL)
As much as Kenley Jansen has been belittled, berated, spindled, mutilated, and skewered, one might think that he was 0-8 with a 6.55 ERA and 12 blown saves in 2020. In reality, he was 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA. He was the National League Bullpen Pitcher of the Month in August. In July and August, he had a 1.54 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP. In October and November, he had a 6.52 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP. Did he suddenly “lose it,” or did he just get messed up with his mechanics? It is my opinion that he put too much pressure on himself and that messed up his mechanics. We saw him still be able to hit 97 MPH at times, but his cutter really doesn’t depend upon velocity.
In the famous words of Marty Lamb: “If he did it once, he could do it again.” I’ll give you 20 Million Reasons why Kenley Jansen will start the season as the Dodgers’ closer… well, I think you already know what that is. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. In 2016, Craig Kimbrel had a 3.40 ERA/1.094 WHIP but followed that up with a 1.43 ERA/.0681 WHIP in 2017 and a 2.74 ERA/.0995 WHIP in 2018, before his wheels fell off in 2019 and 2020. Will Kenley be better, worse, or the same in 2021?
PREDICTION: Kenley would like another contract as 2021 is the last of his current deal. When he arrives for Spring Training, I think we might have a clue by observing what kind of shape he is in. I lean to the side that Kenley will be the same to maybe better in 2021, but he wasn’t all that bad in 2020… except for a few times.
Corey Knebel (HL)
Corey had a cup of coffee with Detroit in 2014 and then in 2015 and 2016 was just a piece of the Milwaukee pen. However, in 2017, he stepped in as Milwaukee’s closer and had a 1.74 ERA and saved 39 games. In 76 IP he allowed 48 Hits and struck out 126. In Spring Training of 2019, he tore his UCL and had Tommy John (who should be in the HOF) surgery. By the way, TJ is in the hospital with COVID-19 – Get well TJ!
He came back in 2020 and had a few setbacks as is expected with TJ Surgery. He only pitched 13 innings and had a 6.08 ERA. In September of 2020, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentential reported this:
“Not only did Knebel throw 20 of 29 pitches for strikes, the velocity on his fastball was pre-surgery vintage. He hit 97 mph with several pitches and sat consistently at 96 mph, a level he had not displayed previously while on the comeback trail after missing all of the ’19 season.”
It takes a year or two for a pitcher to fully recover from Tommy John, both mentally and physically. Sometimes they are so focused on rehabbing their arms that they may neglect their bodies and that is what happen to Corey in 2020. He had nagging injuries, including hamstring problems. That is in the rearview mirror.
Prediction: By all indications, Corey Knebel is healthy and ready to resume a high-leverage position in the Dodgers bullpen. He will definitely be better than he was last year. The only question is whether he will re-claim his 2018 status. It could be close, and even if he doesn’t regain his 2018 ability, I think he will pretty dang good! He’s 29 and if he has a great year, he will get a great payday in 2022.
Blake Treinen (HL)
The fact that the Dodgers brought Blake Treinen back at about $9 Million a year should tell you that Liam Hendriks is going to get paid a whole lot more, and therefore will not be a LA Dodger. Based upon what Treinen is making over two years, I would expect Hendriks to get 4 years at over $50 Million. The Dodgers won’t pay him that, nor will they likely dole out another big contract as they gave to Kenley Jansen.
Blake Treinen was not elite by any means, in 2020, but he was very solid. He had a 3.86 ERA and a 1.206 WHIP – OK, but not great. Much like Kenley Jansen, he had a 1.59 ERA in July and August and then a 7.69 ERA in August and September. His velocity was great, but his strikeout rate has dropped a lot. He is almost more of a “groundball pitcher” now… which is not a bad thing. I also think that the Dodgers pitching staff think they can build on 2020 and maybe he can return to his 2018 form in 2021.
Prediction: I think Blake will put up number equal to or most likely better than he did in 2020. It’s a good signing – Blake knows how to pitch and often times a little tweak is all it takes to go from “good” to “great.” I think Blake Treinen’s stock is on the rise.
Brandon Morrow (HL)
I never thought I would be writing about Brandon Morrow again. He never pitched in 2019 and 2020, because of injuries, but look at his ERA’s from 2015 to 2018:
- 2015 – 2.73
- 2016 – 1.69
- 2017 – 2.06
- 2018 – 1.47
It’s really simple: If Brandon Morrow is healthy, he is very, very good! When he’s not healthy, he is not a factor. He has had elbow, calf and shoulder injuries the past two years and is allegedly healthy now. He will be 37 in July and this is likely his last dance.
Prediction: Here’s my prediction: I have no idea! Either he will be the same as he was in 2018 and 2019 (injured) or he will be “lights out” for one final season. I know what I hope for, but only time will tell.
Scott Alexander (BP)
Scott Alexander may be the most underappreciated pitcher in baseball, let alone on the Dodgers team. In 6 MLB seasons (or parts thereof), he has never had an ERA above 3.68 (except for his rookie year at 4.50 in 6 IP). For his career, he has a 12-7 record with a 3.18 ERA. He is a groundball pitcher so he gives up some hits, but in 6 years he has only given up 12 HR.
Like Brandon Morrow, Scott Alexander is a diabetic which adds another layer of problems, but like Morrow, he is determined to continue so I have to respect his resolve.
Prediction: Scott Alexander will be what he has always been (when healthy): A solid piece (not high leverage) in the LA Dodgers Bullpen.
Victor Gonzalez (HL)
V-Gon had an excellent rookie season and followed that up with a very good playoff run. In his rookie COVID-19 year, Victor had a 3-0 record with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.738 WHIP. That’s pretty astounding! Victor has some filthy stuff and could possibly even be a closer some day… maybe sooner than later.
His confidence has been a problem in the past and hopefully is has been boosted with what he did in 2020. V-Gon is a very good pitcher and shoudl only get better as he is still 25 years-old.
Prediction: Victor is a high leverage bullpen option and could someday become a closer!
Brusdar Graterol (HL)
I will anoint Bazooka the next Dodger Closer, as soon as he learns more about pitching. His pitching arsenal is illegal in 47 states – he just needs to learn how to utilize it. Whether that is in 2021 or 2022, he will be the Dodgers’ closer at some point. I think Bazooka will play a big role in the Dodgers’ bullpen in 2021 and beyond. I think he will close a few games in 2021, but 2022 seems to be the year he takes over that spot.
Prediction: He is certainly on the side of being better than last year. It will be fun to see him grow into his new role.
Dylan Floro (BP)
Dylan was 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA last year and has a career ERA of 3.33. He is a very useful part of the bullpen has very solid stuff. When he puts it together, he is almost a high leverage reliever.
Prediction: Count on him to do what he does.
Garrett Cleavinger (BP)
Most fans don’t know what to think of Cleavinger. He’s a left-hander and has a fastball that is in the 94-95 MPH range. I know that some scouts are very high on him, but I have no opinion. I will defer to Andrew Friedman and his staff of evaluators, who traded for him.
Prediction: No clue!
Joe Kelly (BP)
Joe Kelly is a conundrum – he is also like a box of chocolates in that you never know what you might get. I had high hope when the Dodgers signed him as they thought they could “fix him.” They couldn’t! He was thought to be a high leverage guy when they signed him. He was of the low leverage ilk.
Prediction: He will be worse, better or the same as last year! Push me and I will say that if I had to bet… he will be released. I hope not because the Dodgers could use his arm.
Adam Kolarek (BP)
He was once regarded as a LOOGY but has morphed into a nice bullpen part. I would not classify him as high leverage, but he is very useful. He is 11-3 with a career ERA of 3.32, but in 2020, he had an ERA of .095 and a WHIP of o.789. That dog will hunt.
Prediction: He will not be as good as 2020, but will be a solid piece and a part of the Dodger bullpen.
Three More…
The above predictions covered eleven players who are bullpen pieces. It doe not include Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin… two of whom will likely be in the bullpen and any of those will be STRONG ASSETS for the bullpen. Additionally, that is not all…
But, Wait… There is More!
Don’t forget to add in non-roster invitees: Asuaje, Schwaab, Pazos, Morrow (already discussed), and Jimmy Nelson. Then there are Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, and Gray. None of them may be ready, but some also could be ready.
Conclusion
Someone said that Friedman could be “building a super bullpen.” HELLO! It is already done! Hendriks or Hand or Archer or Kluber are not coming… unless they want to take a Minor League Deal. This bullpen is loaded! Watch out, everyone! There is strength in numbers. Half of the pitchers mentioned could get injured and the Dodgers still might have the best bullpen in baseball – Remember past records are no guarantee of future performance. You will get the same performance, better performance, or worse performance.
Asuaje is an infielder Mark, I do not think they signed him to pitch. but other than that pretty astute analysis.
“… Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin… two of whom will likely be in the bullpen”
I assume you are referring to the post season (with a 4 man rotation). Or will we be adding another SP?
Mark, to follow up on the last thread. Yes, I concur Gray is 7 or 8. I doubt he gets added to the 40 man for a spot start but if someone is out for a longer period and we need more than one or 2 starts, I would expect him to be added and called up.
Positive thinking. I like it.
A few ifs in there. I think there will be another “proven now” arm added. Maybe a Hand. As much as I like Hendriks, my gut tells me he’s getting more money elsewhere.
Thinking out of the box works. I would love to see them add a really good power bat right now.
Who will be the 2021 Victor Gonzalez? Uceta maybe? Lots of help coming through our system. I’m also really excited about Morrow. If he can get and stay healthy he would be a huge difference maker
I like Uceta. I would not include him in any deal, and watch out for Gray. Bear
Former Dodger Chase DeJong signs with the Pirates. Some movement now on free agents. I figured it would loosen up this month.
I don’t care much about Alexander’s ERA. I care more about his inherited runners. The guy has zero command of his pitches. It’s throw it and hope the movement doesn’t cause a walk or wind up in the middle of the plate for a dong.
Which definition of dong did you mean?
https://www.yourdictionary.com/dong
Well since my number 1 concern is the bullpen I guess I’ll give my opinion on the names listed by Mark in the order he lists them. I do look at other stats but if I don’t find anything eye popping I default to my favorite stats career OPS vs RHB and career OPS vs LHB.
Jansen – His OPS vs RHB the last 3 years has been around .700 that’s a little concerning. The big problem I have with him is that Doc uses him in high leverage situations. If Jansen were to be used only as a piece of the bullpen I’d be alright with him.
Knebel – His .732 career OPS vs RHB is concerning. Also in his 6 year career that OPS has been below .700 only once and that is concerning.
Treinen – His .752 career OPS vs LHB is concerning. Also in his 7 year career that OPS has been below .700 only twice and that is concerning.
Morrow – His .685 career OPS vs RHB and .709 vs LHB looks a lot like Joe Kelly stats and you all should know by now what I think of Joe Kelly. He sucks.
Alexander – His .710 career OPS vs RHB is concerning.
Gonzalez – Too inexperienced to make an opinion. But I like what I see so far.
Graterol – Too inexperienced to make an opinion. His .851 OPS vs LHB would normally concern me, but not in his case because it’s too small of a sample.
Floro – His .779 career OPS vs LHB is concerning.
Cleavinger – 0.2 innings pitched in the big league means that I have no opinion on him.
Kelly – He sucks. See Morrow above for similar stats.
Kolarek – His .835 career OPS vs RHB is unacceptable.
During the regular season I suspect 1 of Gonsolin, May, Urias will be in the bullpen and during the playoffs I suspect 2 of them will be in the bullpen. That is a good thing. This isn’t the bullpen I would assemble, but other teams will have worse bullpens.
I always like seeing your stats, and you’re consistent about the issue of OPS vs both sides of the plate. But what I’m wondering is, for great relievers (whoever they may be), what’s their discrepancy of OPS vs righties and OPS vs lefties?
Like, is .100 difference the norm? Low? High?
I’m not sure what you mean Bobby.
To me for pitchers a career OPS below .600 is dominate. From there to .650 is very good/good. From there to .700 is above average/average. I also look at recent stats for example Jansen has excellent career stats but the last 3 years his OPS vs RHB has been near or above .700.
Bullpen looks solid after the Treinen signing though not as good as suggested in the article.
Would love to have another HL leftie who can close . Someone like Hand.
Supposing the Dodgers do not sign any more of our own free agents how much money would that free up ?
Still need a big right hand bat, if that player is a 3b Dodgers could swat two birds with one stone. Suarez in a trade with the Reds ? Bryant in a trade with the Cubs ? Arenado (a long shot given his salary) ?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You are right on the RH hitter, but on the LH pitcher we already have that guy, and it is Victor Gonzalez or Julio Urias if he is not a starter. Hand velocity is down, and I think his days are past him as an elite pitcher, he will be good, but Gonz will be better.
I think the big lesson to be learned from 2020 is that Kenley Jansen can no longer be used as the closer in consecutive save situations. He was effective with proper rest. Maybe that’s why AF is loading up on high leverage options?
Yep.
It’s been a while since Jansen was nails. I’d say since 2017. The last 3 years his RA9 is over 3.5 and the last 2 years it’s over 4. He still has his moments, but using him back to back should be avoided. He and Kelly are costly and shaky. And that’s why I think the pen is the priority on AF’s Must Do list.
I agree on KJ and Kelly. Both are on thin ice as far as I’m concerned despite their high dollar contracts. I don’t care if KJ’s problems are mechanical, physical or a combo but it’s a performance business and if he can’t cut it in high pressure situations he needs a new role. I’m predicting that will happen. You can’t be good every other outing. I don’t buy the statement that if he could do it once, he can do it again. Age makes that a ridiculous statement. KJ’s age makes me doubt he can be anything but a BP, in more ways than one if that flat cutter continues at 87.
I am nothing more than a fan. I am not a stat geek. Usually when I evaluate a players performance it is based on what I see every night. I do not need a bunch of stats to tell me when a guy stinks. Now, Jansen is not the lock down closer he was in 2017. That is obvious even to Ronnie Milsap. Tired of using Ray Charles, and since Ronnie is alive and blind, he is more relevant. And it started with a couple of impressive melt downs in the World Series. Both in the same game. First a blown save, then a loss. Ok, we know he has lost velocity. But what I have seen is lack of location with his cutter. You leave any pitch over the center of the plate for too long and MLB hitters are going to tee off on it. That has been happening more often to Jansen. Yet, in 2020, Jansen had 11 saves. They might not have been pretty, but he got the job finished. Not excited? That’s ok until you realize that he saved 1/4 of the Dodger wins. Same guy? No, he got 3 wins on games where the offense bailed him out. But he only lost 1. The offense was a huge reason the bullpen was not tagged with a lot of losses. When they would blow a lead, the offense usually would pull it out. The team was in control of the division for a good portion of the year once Colorado cooled off after a hot start. Another concern, at least for me with Jansen, is the traffic he allowed on the bases. He pitched 24.1 innings during the 60 game season, he allowed 28 base runners during those innings. That is a little too much traffic and he had few clean innings. He definitely was less effective when he pitched in back to back games. Kelly just plain makes you nervous. Even in games where they did nothing against him, he was not exactly efficient. He pitched 10 innings in 12 games, but he allowed 15 runners to get on base. But one of those games he was the opener. He allowed the only 3 runs he gave up all year in that game. Strange season. But he is a reason to drink when he comes into a game. If, and this is a huge if, he regains control of his fast ball, and is the kind of pitcher he was against LA in the 18 series, he is a force to be feared. Morrow was the same kind of guy for the Dodgers in 17. He was lights out, and his only bad game of the year came in the series in Houston, and I believe that it was because he was tired. Roberts used him a lot in those playoffs. But he also is an unknown. If healthy, he is a beast. I saw good and bad out of every pitcher in the pen last season. But mostly good. 3 pieces of that crew are gone, Wood, Baez and McGee. They have been replaced by Knebel and Morrow so far. I doubt AF is finished retooling. A little over 5 weeks until spring. So there is plenty of time for additions or subtractions.
All of that is true. And it’s true he’s a year older. He’s paid a lot of money and it’s my opinion to give him the best chance of coming close to earning it with clean innings is to use him wisely. For all the reasons you just mentioned I’d rather he start the 7th than use him in a high pressure situation in the 8th or 9th – and I damm sure do not pitch him two days in a row. Frankly I don’t like doing that with anybody but if I had to it wouldn’t be him doing it.
“The offense was a huge reason the bullpen was not tagged with a lot of losses. When they would blow a lead, the offense usually would pull it out.”
You nailed it with that sentence. You’re absolutely correct.
Eric, can you give us the OPS splits for top relievers like Hendricks, Hand, Hader and Williams. If the league OPS average is about .750 wouldn’t that be an average grade for a reliever? What about era and whip. The top pitchers are tops in these statistics. At least the starters are. Are these stats irrelevant to relievers?
Cassidy
Different people like different stats. WHIP is a good stat, it’s probably my 2nd favorite stat. I don’t look at ERA, it’s meaningless to me. You’re right about .750 OPS being average, but I have a higher standard when looking for a reliever for the Dodger team, that’s just me.
Hendriks – Career OPS vs RHB .707 vs LHB .738. With him you would have to look at what he has done lately (the last 2 years), because it is way better than his career stats.
Hand – Career OPS vs RHB .739 vs LHB .552. He’s dominate against LHB, but I don’t like his RHB stat.
Hader – Career OPS vs RHB .569 vs LHB .480. Absolutely dominate against both sides of the plate period.
Devin Williams – Career OPS vs RHB .627 vs LHB .501.
Good morning everyone. Hope it is a good day for you all. Good write-up, Mark. Thank you. I agree with most of your analysis and selections and also agreeing with Bear on that I see good and bad in a lot of them except maybe Graterol, Urias, May and Gonsolin whom I feel could be solid contributors this year.
Two ps’s…… Mega prayers for Tommy John, and Marty Robbins, one of my all-time favorites.
John has been fighting Covid for 3 weeks. Robbins died in 1982 of lung and liver failure. He was 57. Mets get Lindor and Carrasco for 4 players. No doubt they will try to extend Lindor before he hits FA.
That was a really good analysis Mark. Thanks for the summary. I think we do have a solid bullpen but I also think there is a chance that we add Hand. Other than that we need to bring back JT for two years and I think that will happen once he sees that four years in not happening. Beyond that I think our roster is pretty set. My mystery pick is Hoese having an impact.
Mets on the verge of acquiring Lindor and Carrasco from Cleveland
Yoiks.
No “bull” about the pen but then you start off by saying that Jansen “we saw him 97 at times”?
For one, at times would imply that happened multiple times, let alone once.
According to baseballsavent, he never got over 95.3 all year. Anyone that watched games knows that he was normally low 90s and high 80s
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=445276#pitch_FC
Quit reading at that. Maybe the rest was good.
Good stats.
Some more:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=20,d
In the all encompassing WAR stat our best reliever in ‘19 was Baez. Wasn’t expecting that. Hendriks is at or near the top in just about everything. xFIP he’s down the list a bit. He’s that “go to” game over guy. At least he usta was. Who knows now. Relievers are mercurial.
Jason said:
No “bull” about the pen but then you start off by saying that Jansen “we saw him 97 at times”?
For one, at times would imply that happened multiple times, let alone once.
According to baseballsavent, he never got over 95.3 all year. Anyone that watched games knows that he was normally low 90s and high 80s
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=445276#pitch_FC
Quit reading at that. Maybe the rest was good.
Maybe it’s just me, but the way Jason said it, it sounds like he thinks I am lying. Well, I did not look it up on baseball savant, but he is probably right. Baseball Savant has his fastest pitch at 95.3… which is 1.7 MPH off of what I said.
I didn’t look it up but on at least two occasions, Joe and Orel commented on him hitting 97. Now, that was on the stadium gun, or do they have their own gun? I have no clue and I suppose I could go back and listen to all the games, but nah… 1.7 MPH! I’ve got something better for Jason:
In no way at all was I implying that you were lying. I am truly sorry if that was how it came across.
This is a blog and one that I read everyday.
Saying that though, it does get frustrating with the pie in the sky predictions sometimes. THere is nothing wrong with saying that someone is done. Pro sports is a cuththroat business and I am sorry, but KJ needs to be slit from ear to ear. He is done. A great Dodger. but the chapter is closed.
Watching KJ last year with that huge, slow windup where you expect a bullet to come out and instead you get a little flag with a POW on it like old cartoons was frustrating.
Its time for him to be replaced like every great player has before him.
Acting or stating that he was and is better than 2020 and probably 2021 KJ is, is a disservice to the readers IMO.
I come here for good insightful articles and comments. Not to drink Kool Aid
Good deal for Mets
Color me unimpressed with the flotsam and jetsam signed by the Dodgers for the bullpen thus far. It’s like buying a lot of lottery tickets – the more you buy, the better chance you have to win, but your chances are still not that good.
*Brandon Morrow last threw a pitch in a MLB game in 2018 and broke down by mid-season. The odds that he will ever do so again are not good.
*Garrett Cleavenger has never been a good pitcher. He is, at this point, a 26 year old with 1 MLB appearance. In 5 minor league seasons, he has never pitched above AA. His career MILB stats? 4.08 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 5.3BB/9 IP.
*Corey Knebel has had 1 good season – in 2017, he had a 1.78 ERA, 39 saves, 1.158 WHIP and 14.9 K/9. If you back out his 2017 numbers, he has a career 4.04 ERA, career WHIP of 1.281, 11.8 K/9. His 2018 numbers were not nearly as good as 2017, then he missed 2019 with Tommy John. Hardly a sure thing at this point.
*Tommy Kahnle will likely not pitch in 2021. His career numbers aren’t good either – ERA 3.82, WHIP 1.286, 4.3 BB/9.
What did they lose from last year’s ‘pen?
*Pedro Baez has a career 3.03 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 9.03 K/9 vs 3.0 BB/9 and his 2020 numbers are similar to his career numbers.
*Jake McGee has a career 3.59 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 vs. 2.5 BB/9 but had 2.66 ERA, .0836 WHIP, 14.6 K/9 vs 1.3 BB/9 last year.
As of right now, the bullpen is weaker than last year’s.
Won’t argue any of that.
Could be a couple of those guys will step up. Could be they are done. These are the yearly doings of Friedman. He’s been successful quite a bit. We hope for the best with these signings, meanwhile the Mets and the Padres are stepping to center stage.
Just wondering how this affects the DJ situation with the Yanks. If Yanks step up to stay on front page with Mets and give DJ what he wants.
Not only did the Mets get Lindor, they also got Carrasco who is a very good pitcher.
Probably still in on Springer and if they get him they have to be one of the top four teams in baseball.
Good for Cohen. Putting his money where his mouth is.
Get 2 keys pieces to go along with good core. Don’t know if I put them in top 4 yet but getting close especially if they get Springer or Brantley.
I think Lindor is a generational player. In New York he can be like Mookie. If he likes it there he will extend. The Mets appear to be back. And good for them.
Cohen may try to extend him before he has a chance to decide if he likes it.
Knowing Lindor’s personality, how could he not like being a high-profile player on a NY team.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Lindor extended before the season even starts.
Now, why should the Indians bother keeping Jose Ramirez when they won’t contend for the next 3-4 years at a minimum. Might as well just send him to us for some good prospects and start rebuilding their farm system.
What should we give up for Jose? Three years of control remaining at an AAV of $11MM and the last two years of that are team options, not player option. He can play 2nd or 3rd base and is a switch hitter. If we use Covid multiplier for last year of 2.7 his WAR was about 6.5. Let’s go get him.
Get in line.
Rios and Pollock
Or
Rios and a pitcher
For
Jose Ramirez
Doubt it. Lindor has stated from the get go he wants to test free agency. And that is most likely what he will do. MLBTR reports Dodgers targeting RH bats….DUH. newsflash, we all knew that.
I think Betts said the same thing.
If the Mets sign Springer, the Mets are going to be attractive to Francisco.
And don’t discount the relief that we won’t have to hear any more Lindor to the Dodgers trade rumors.
Go get Chris Bryant. If he’s healthy could have a monster comeback year. And he can play LF when Pollock gets hurt!
If Indians are fire sailing now rather have Jose Ramirez controlled 3 yrs at $11 mil. and only 28 yrs old
We’re in agreement , tc, as per my comment a few spots up from yours.
What would you give up for him?
Just sign Turner and get this over with.
Would start with Ruiz,McKinstry and throw in Rios if necessary
In my opinion that wouldn’t even begin to do it.
Indians would hang up very quickly.
How long do we wait for Turner? No one is gonna give him 4 years. I think AF has to give him a deadline and move on before we lose leverage and options get signed elsewhere.
If anyone was going to give Turner 4 years, I think it would have been done already. I don’t know what the hold up is but first domino has to be tilting.
Badger, you’ve been a huge supporter of getting Lindor which now won’t happen.
You want to resign JT, which may or may not happen, but I’m not sure how you feel about Ramirez.
I know you’re a fan of WAR numbers. I just checked bWAR for Lindor vs Ramirez and in approximately the same amount of lifetime plate appearances, they have about the same bWAR.
Only difference is that while Ramirez will make $33MM over the next 3 years, Lindor will make $70-80MM.
I would give the Indians Ruiz, Hoese and Gray or Gonsolin. I doubt they could turn that down although I’m guessing that a lot of folks here at LADT would think that was too much.
If Cleveland is dumping I’d rather put together a package for Bieber. But of course, why would they dump him? Well, to get all four of the guys you mentioned.
Ramirez would of course work, but as I said above, we would get outbid for him. We don’t need him, other teams trying to catch us need him more.
True, we don’t need him other than the hole at third. You want Rios and Turner there but the clock is ticking. If Turner signs elsewhere, the Dodgers will be in a much weaker trading position.
Ramirez shares a height with Cey and speed with Taylor.
Rios projects 19 home runs and 54 ribbies in 320 at bats. Turner projects 20 home runs and 69 ribbies in 450 at bats. That’s 39 home runs and 123 RBI’s.
I’ll take it.
Sign Turner and divide both the time and the money.
One more thing – Endowment effect: we value things more highly than they are worth because we don’t want to get snookered.
Just thought I’d throw that in there.
770 at bats total?
Let’s call them plate appearances. It could happen.
I have an idea, lets just bust the bank and sign everyone! Make a couple of trades, unload the kids you know are not going to have an impact anytime soon. Pay the reliever you want the most what he wants, and then cross your fingers and hope he earns the entire thing. Look, if the Dodgers want DJLM< they are going to have to give him pretty close to what he wants, and what he wants is 5 years. Ok, you sign DJLM, and you use him at 3rd. One of your best prospects is a 3rd baseman. What do you do with him? Ok, DJLM plays 3rd for at least a year, and then maybe prospect is ready in 2022. No, sign Taylor for a couple of years to be the utility- second base guy and let DJLM play 3rd one more time. Ok, did Seager resign? No? Now you need a SS and there are none in the system ready for prime time, so you go after Story because the Mets signed Lindor to a Mookie like deal. It gets that convoluted. I myself have zero idea what AF is thinking, or who he is seriously targeting, and no one else does either. We may not like the guys he has in the pen right now, but according to the way he and the team evaluate players, these are the guys he likes. It will either work or blow up in his face.
Sorry, but bla bla bla Bear.
Boo hoo hoo Fred!
All legitimate questions there Fred…..so no blah,
Let’s get together this October 31 and continue this conservation. It’s off to a good start.
Sounds good Bum. Food for thought eh? I wish I knew which way he was going to go. I would have more hair…….Got new tires for my truck and a new prescription for my eyes, so it was a good day.
Ouch Bums
I preapologized.
If AF is confident he can get under the luxury tax next year would he make a one year offer to Bauer for 38-40 mil. His market is shrinking by the day and maybe he thinks he can do better in 2022 for a long term deal
Bauer doesn’t project anywhere near what he did last year. Wonder why.
I think that what a lot of fans do not consider is that any team can only have maybe three or four (at maximum) big contracts.
If the Mets sign Springer, they will be over the LuxTax and I doubt they want to go there now, because even without Cano this year, that would give them 4 big deals, and then they have two more years of Cano.
The Dodgers have Two Big Contracts (Betts and Kershaw) but Jansen at $20 M, Price at $16 M, Pollack at $12 M and Seager and Bellinger at around $25 M gives them little wiggle room. If they give over the LuxTax it will not be by much. They already have the highest Opening Day Payroll in baseball. It ain’t happening.
Next year, Seager has to get paid or they will pay some other SS, Then, Bellinger and Buehler need to get paid. I could see Ramirez or Suarez but it looks less and less likely that JT will return and that Rios and Lux could be part of the deal.
Bieber can’t be happy this is happening. The Indians need outfielders too. Send them Rios, Lux, Raley, Beaty, and Miller for Bieber and Ramirez.
That would send Urias, Gonsolin, and May to the Bullpen. WOW!
One other thing: Eric likes the career OPS of pitchers but that fails to take into consideration that many relievers are failed starters and it sometimes takes them years to figure it out. Kirby Yates was horrid… until he was great! If you are looking at stats – career stats or last year stats, you are using your eyes and guys with vision, like AF will beat the crap outta’ you! I think the Dodgers bullpen will be better than last year and lest we forget, the Dodgers had the #2 bullpen in 2020. They missed #1 by 0.02 points in ERA, but they were #1 in WHIP.
Watch and learn!
But, if we watch we have to use our eyes, and if we use our eyes we’ll get the crap beat out of us. I don’t think I want that.
We had the #2 bullpen? According to what? Stats? But you just said not to look at those. I’m confused.
I’m looking at that trade, but I’m also looking around cuz again I don’t want the crap beat out of me, and I think I’d do it. This is a good year for cleave land to rebuild cuz there won’t be many b.i.s. again this year.
Make it so #2.
Mark, I read your Ramirez/Bieber trade suggestion three times, assuming that I had missed a couple of players coming from us, but I hadn’t.
You expect the Indians to give up two All-Star players with 7 years of control, both of whom are drastically underpaid, for that package? You must be kidding.
Raley has absolutely no trade value. Beaty has very little trade value. Rios has some trade value. Miller has some trade value. Lux’s trade value went down last year, although he’s still got a good amount of value.
They aren’t going to trade Bieber, but for those two you’d have to add something like May and Ruiz and they still might not do it.
Just my opinion. OK, have at me.
Then I would come back and say: “OK, what would you want?”
I can guarantee that you wouldn’t like the answer to that question. Of course nothing says we have to make a trade we don’t like.
Rios and Lux are two very good pieces. That’s a good start. Whatever catching prospect they want, Hoese and Gray might get it done.
Friedman has more information than I do. He has the info to be able to find young guys before they are good no doubt. I just have stats. I’m just telling you from someone who only has stats to work with who I think he should target. If I had more info like Friedman has I probably would have other names that are free agents that I would be mentioning instead of Joakim Soria, Sean Doolittle and Pedro Baez. And of course Roberto Osuna minus the assault charges. And if I had info on trades like Friedman does I’m sure I’d be talking about other names too.
The fact is I don’t have the info Friedman has. I only have stats to work with. So the names I mention are from stats only, nothing else.
But I’ll tell you right now, I’m not impressed with the relievers he has added.
Also last year the Dodgers didn’t play very many good teams during the regular season. That could explain the “good” bullpen stats during the regular season. But then look at the playoff stats not so good, and if you take out Julio Urias from the equation the playoff bullpen stats are pretty bad. Whether you like it or not Julio Urias bailed out the Dodger bullpen in the playoffs.
Friedman shares all his info with me but he still surprises me.
Exactly our dilemma Eric. We do not know what info or stats he uses for eval. I do know this, most pundits agree the Dodgers are in on both Yates and Hands. Probably has a lot to do with the familiarity they have with both relievers from their days with the Padres.
DEPTH!
THat’s what AF is doing. Morrow costs nothing… and he will just flame out or be lights out.
The same is true with several others.
You can read all the stats you want and use your vision all you want, but sometimes it is pure blind luck… and you can prepare for that. AF has!
I actually don’t have a problem with signing guys to minor league deals for depth. It’s the major league deals that I’m not impressed with.
Anyone say Max Muncy? Pure luck, Chris Taylor, pure luck. Morrow in 2017, pure luck, and he had a clause that would have allowed him to leave the team if he was not on the roster by a certain date. He was called up and dominated.
If the choice is Yates or Hand, I’d take Yates because there’s more RHB than LHB.
Yates dominates RHB, Hand dominates LHB, both are below average (my standards) against the other side.
Former Angel clubhouse guy named a bunch of pitchers who used his illegal salve to grip the baseball in cold weather. Some of the biggest names in the league are on that list. Including Gerrit Cole, and Scherzer. He is suing because he was made a scapegoat and MLB did not want another scandal on top of the cheating allegations against the Astro’s. Interesting story. Will be interested in seeing how it plays out. The article is in the LA Times.