The Hot Stove League is always fun for us armchair GMs, allowing us to look at ways of improving a reigning World Series championship team. Not just a WS championship team, but THE consensus choice of the best team in MLB for 2020. But changes must be made. Nothing can stay at the top by being stagnant. Changes can come internally or externally. AF is a master as to building the team, and hopefully the team’s makeup is of strong character and confidence at being the best.
Before we can look at any potential changes, we need to first review where the team currently sits. Before a builder can frame a house, they must first have a sound foundation. For a MLB team, that is the 40 man roster. Currently the LAD 40 man roster sits at 31. None 2020 LAD players are no longer on the 40 man:
- Pedro Baez – FA – (RHRP)
- Jake McGee – FA – (LHRP)
- Blake Treinen – FA – (RHRP)
- Alex Wood – FA – (Swing Pitcher)
- Justin Turner – FA – (3B)
- Kike’ Hernandez – FA – (INF/OF)
- Joc Pederson – FA – (OF)
- Jimmy Nelson (RHP) – LAD declined option with $500K buyout
- Terrance Gore (OF) – LAD outrighted
No Dodger received a Qualifying Offer of $18.9MM, and all are free agents. That is almost a 25 % reduction of the 40 man roster, and will need to be replenished. The current structure of the 40 man roster is as follows:
- 16 Pitchers
- 3 Catchers
- 6 Infielders
- 6 Outfielders
While Caleb Ferguson will not be playing in 2021, he will be included on the 40 man when they are set for the Winter. He will not be allowed to be placed on the 60 day IL until ST. There are nine open spots, and potentially more if need be.
Fortunately, only one of the FA figured to be a front line player in 2021, and he is a 36 year old 3B. While JT is a quality 3B, he no longer plays at the AS level, and has played in 80%, 64%, 83%, and 70% of the games for the last four years. While his defense was stellar in the WS, there is no question that JT has a plus gear in October. However, he no longer possesses the plus defense he once flashed, and JT is probably better suited for DH. Regardless, JT is a staple for the Dodgers and for the LA community. I think it is entirely plausible (and even likely) that JT and AF will come to a favorable agreement keeping JT in LA for the entirely of his career. It could be two more years and then a Chase Utley type final contract.
AF is very loyal to his players, but is not emotional. So while I might expect Joc, Kike’, and any of the four relievers to get offers from the Dodgers, I would not expect any of the Dodger FAs to get any above market offers. That will be especially true after the losses the Dodgers incurred in a 60 game season, and what looks to be a reduced schedule for 2021, and then a potential labor issue shortening the 2022 season. Thus, potentially that could be three consecutive seasons with significantly reduced revenues. The Dodgers will be able to cover the losses, but with no revenue sharing in 2020, and looking to be off the table again for 2021, several organization’s ability to pay for free agents is threatened.
FA contract offers will be down because of revenue concerns. However, both Joc and Kike’ seem to be on short lists for many teams and likely looking to get starting roles and 2-3 year contracts, neither of which the Dodgers will offer. Both Joc and Kike’ have been very good Dodgers, but both will be moving on.
As far as the relievers go, three of the four were very much counted on for 2020, and the 4th had some positive moments in the playoffs. The Dodgers relief needs are primarily in late inning high leverage situations. The Dodgers did not use Jake McGee in that role during the playoffs, giving a strong indication that, right or wrong, they do not look at Jake as a late inning high leverage reliever. I do not see a role for Jake as a Dodger reliever in 2021.
Blake Treinen is quite possibly a more predictable late inning high leverage option than is Kenley Jansen, but is he enough to give a multi-year contract to? The Dodgers are already on the hook for $28.883MM for two relievers (KJ and Joe Kelly). It seems unlikely that the Dodgers will compound that with another multi-year high contract amount for a reliever in 2021. Relief pitching seems to be the most coveted position on team wish lists, so if there are going to be any above market offers from teams, look for relievers to get those offers. Blake Treinen could fit in that role. That will be especially true from teams where the bullpen was the biggest weakness in 2020. Think Philadelphia, Blue Jays, Nationals, Marlins, Mariners…
The current Dodger bullpen makeup is:
- Dylan Floro (RHP) – Middle
- Victor Gonzalez (LHP) – Rookie late inning
- Brusdar Graterol – Rookie late inning
- Kenley Jansen – Former closer
- Joe Kelly – Bridge from middle to late inning
- Adam Kolarek – Middle
Others on the 40 man are Scott Alexander (LHP), Dennis Santana (RHP), Josh Sborz (RHP), Mitch White (RHP).
Alex Wood has outwardly stated that he would absolutely consider a relief role for the Dodgers in 2021. After losing Ross Stripling, the Dodgers do not have a veteran swing man, and Alex Wood can fill that role. Both AF and Doc are comfortable with Pedro Baez, and Baez is very comfortable with LAD. The Dodgers are going to need middle relief, and Baez can fit that role, if he does not have his sights set on a more high leverage role. Dodger management needs to understand that Baez is not the person to bring in with runners on base. Have him start the 6th or 7th; he could be very effective. I can see AF making an offer to both Wood and Baez, but not huge contracts. There will be plenty of like kind relievers on the market. Neither figure to be an upgrade, and both pitchers’ ceilings are limited, so it is also just as conceivable that neither will be offered a contract.
While the Dodgers may have exposed the overworked Rays bullpen, Tampa Bay proved that an organization can build a quality bullpen without high priced relievers. I do not think any of the Dodger relievers on the 40 man that did not make the playoff roster are options for any late inning options. It could be that the bullpen will have a makeover it 2021. The one pitcher I very much look forward to seeing on the roster is 23 year old Brett de Geus. I have been on the bandwagon for de Guess for three years now. For me, he is the right hand version of Caleb Ferguson.
With an abundance of capable starting pitching on the active roster (Buehler, Kershaw, Price, Urias, May, and Gonsolin), one of May or Gonsolin will be designated to the bullpen.
The Dodgers have nine openings for their 40 man, and there could be players currently on the 40 man that may find themselves being designated for assignment.
Players who could potentially find themselves DFA:
- Josh Sborz
- Scott Alexander
- Dennis Santana
- Luke Raley
Nine MiLB players will get some consideration for Rule 5 draft protection:
Pitching (5)
- Andre Jackson (RHP)
- Edwin Uceta (RHP)
- Gerardo Carrillo (RHP)
- Marshall Kasowski (RHP)
- Brett de Geus (RHP)
Infielder (1)
- Omar Estevez (2B)
OF (3)
- Zach Reks (LHH)
- Cody Thomas (LHH)
- Jeren Kendall (LHH)
Not all of the nine will get protected. Maybe only one (de Gues).
Mark previously broke down his pitcher analysis, and I will attempt to provide my pitching analysis and depth chart in my next post.
Jeff, this absolutely nails it: “But changes must be made. Nothing can stay at the top by being stagnant. Changes can come internally or externally. AF is a master as to building the team, and hopefully the team’s makeup is of strong character and confidence at being the best.”
Yes, change is inevitable. I would love to have Baez, Wood, and Turner back. Kike and Treinen too… but that seems unlikely to me. I too think Brett de Geus’ time in now! Then, there is almost always “that guy” who surprises everyone. This year, it was Victor Gonzalez. He’s going to get even better moving forward and I can see him being used in save situations in 2021.
This is the year that some youngsters need to step up if they can: de Geus, Graterol, White, Carrillo, Uceta… to name a but few – that’s because of the $28.883MM for two relievers (KJ and Joe Kelly). I think most Dodger fans feel like that is money thrown away. All I can say is that 2019 and 2020 were not great years for Kenley and Joe… but as we all know, bullpen guys are fickle… and many of these guys are capable of a good year in three! Never assume!
Also, WHAT IF, Dustin May were asked to go to the bullpen for only 2021 and Graterol becomes the #5? One year!
So glad you’re feeling better Mark. Hope that continues and you end feeling better than before your getting sick.
I am now just about back to full strength. I am working half days at the office this week.
You feeling better, Quas?
My headache let up, so I’m pretty certain it wasn’t the virus as I’ve been out nowhere. Gettin a bit stir, Man can’t live on television alone but can do a fair job of imitating.
This is from ThinkBlueLA:
https://thinkbluela.com/2020/10/the-other-dodger/
“During his on-field ceremonial speech, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts thanked his players, the front office personnel, and team owners.
…and then he thanked two additional people:
“Rick Honeycutt, who’s not here, thank you. Ross Stripling, who’s not here – thank you,” Roberts said to the 11,437 fans in attendance at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX, and to the millions of television viewers around the world.
…including Ross Stripling.
“I was in a pretty weird mental space watching that celebration,” Stripling told ThinkBlueLA in an exclusive interview. “Knowing the hard work that went into that championship, so excited for all the guys. But also feeling very left out and left behind.
“But then Dave Roberts said my name, and I almost couldn’t believe it,” Stripling added. “For my name to go through his mind right there, during his World Series speech, was mind-blowing to me. It shows you what kind of man he is and how much class he has. It really meant a lot to me and made me feel included with the group, even though I wasn’t there.”
PURE CLASS BY DAVE ROBERTS!
Now, there is this:
BASEBALL-REFERENCE: August 31, 2020: Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later and player to be named. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kendall Williams (minors) (September 1, 2020) to the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete the trade.
My question is whether there is another player involved? The trade was: for a player to be named later and player to be named. Isn’t that 2 players? The Dodgers have only received Kendall Williams… or is Williams as good as two players? 😉
It seems that teams will not be willing to payout as much this off season due to budget unknowns. That could leave many valuable players wanting to secure a contract at reduced value. Will they sign early to insure that, or will they be left waiting for someone to call.
The safest thing for a front office to do is bring up players from the farm. But it also seems like a good time for teams w money to get better for pennies on the dollar.
MLB Radio said free agents were going to get 40 cents on the dollar. Of course, that is just an opinion.
I agree with you Daniel where financially sound teams will have opportunities to get some valuable players. Maybe, not pennies on the dollar, but at a reduced rate and more important for only 1-2 years because of the virus and up coming labor negotiations. It’s like during a economic recession or depression where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Excellent write up Jeff. A simple and easy to understand analysis of what the Dodgers have, what they lost, and who could possibly fill the voids on the 2021 roster. Look forward to your next article.
Mark, glad to hear you’re almost back to 100%. What a nightmare for you and your family. It’s amazing to me the spectrum of symptoms of this virus. Continue on with your successful recovery. Take care.
Re starting pitching. Right now, we have 6 starters (7 if you count White as a potential starter).
It is almost certain we will need 6 starters just to allow for injuries/rest. I don’t see one of these 6 (K,B,P,U,M,G) moving to the pen on a permanent basis unless we sign another starter.
If we don’t have a full season, particularly if the MiLB season is significantly curtailed, I could see Gray being added to the 40 man roster and both he and White being given experience in the pen with a few spot starts.
It will be interesting to see what progress Gray has made this past season….
Great analysis as usual AC. I’m also on the de Geus bandwagon and would love to see him get a chance next year.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the four guys you mentioned get DFA, although I’m not quite ready to give up on Santana yet. I hope we have a minor league season this year so he can have one more shot at becoming the guy we hoped he would be. I don’t expect him to be part of the 2021 big league roster.
Joel Sherman had an article yesterday speaking about the financial situation throughout MLB and how many of the teams just won’t be spending. This is a chance for us to pick and choose and improve our roster, especially in the bullpen. Sherman did identify seven teams as likely to spend (at least more than the others). Those seven are the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, Twins and White Sox. Two things I found interesting with that list: 1) 3 of the 7 teams are in the NL West, and 2) the Yankees weren’t mentioned. Don’t know if that was an oversight or if they really don’t plan to spend much. Another team I was surprised not to see on the list was the Phillies.
Thanks for the great review AC. I have got to believe AF will sign at least one closer type bullpen piece this winter. That is the missing link to this team repeating in 21. And maybe also taking a flyer on Yates
Nothing really new today. Winter meetings scheduled in a month might have to go virtual because of ***** **. Rule V draft later. Free agents can leave 5 days after the World Series. Gold Glove announcement soon. Award winners in about week. Nothing else of note happening this week.
Wow after a month of NHL, NBA, MLB all going at once, all the time, every day… Now these days are sorta boring!
Especially if your NFL team sucks, like mine (Go Bears?)
I’m still on cloud nine! Dodgers world champs!!!! Never get tired of winning!! Winning!! Winning!!
Wow. So many balls in the air, uncertainty as to what the 2021 season will look like. Where are the Dodgers financially, aside from the $100 million drop in revenue. Fans back in seats has to play heavily into upcoming decisions. Dr. Fauci said the vaccine will be out in late December and will have a success rate of 50 to 70 percent, quite high actually. Could be a difference maker along with new meds to treat the virus.
Not many teams figure to be big players in the free agent market except the New York Mets with new ownership and all. MLB trade rumors has a list up this morning as to where they predict players will sign. The Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers rumors persist and Justin Turner is expected to re-sign with LA.
Some of this may center on David Price, what happens with the virus and what he intends to do. They kinda need an answer the earlier the better.
Depending on what the market is or isn’t, I could see them bringing back Pedro Báez and Alex Wood. Kiké loves playing for the Dodgers, but just see him pursuing a multi year contract and a starting role. Same for Joc.
Considering the Dodgers have a lot of talent close to the majors and a pretty young team they might choose to go down that path and stay away from free agents. We need to wait for Andrew Friedman’s press briefing where he outlines what the future may or may not look like before we get an idea.
The Dodgers obviously have a good case for repeating. No doubt Friedman is already looking toward the future.
But at this point, it feels like the Dodgers are operating in a thick fog bank. But I’m guessing we see an expanded season. Even at worst some fans back in the stands. If Disney reopens it may force changes in the way we deal with the virus in LA County and California.
Thanks AC, as usual for your excellent analysis and report this morning. Hate to see anyone leave this team but wish them well and good luck if they do and will not forget the contributions they made in helping to win the Championship.
Loved the article on Ross Stripling affectionately known as Chicken Strips. One of my favorite Dodgers and an extremely well-liked and great teammate. Wish they would get him back.
Great article, Jeff!
And great to hear that Mark is feeling better!
The MLB trade rumors website published their annual top 50 free agent predictions. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
They rank Trevor Bauer as the top free agent and predict the Dodgers sign him to a 4 year, $128 million deal. Not likely to me, but that would be intriguing.
They also predict Dodgers sign Justin Turner for 2yrs and $24 million total. This seems reasonable to me.
A few other predictions of note: Joc Pederson is rated 19th top free agent overall and prediction to sign for 2 yrs, $18 million with the Cardinals. And Blake Treinen for 2yrs, $14 million. with Marlins. Kike and other dodgers are not ranked in top 50 free agents.
In reviewing the predictions, there are numerous reliever options which will likely be attractive to Dodgers at lower cost, although I would like to have Treinen, Baez and/or McGee back.
It will be an interesting winter.
RC Dodger: Last year I kept track of the “expert” predictions of the MLB of the top 50 . They were right on 12 of those predictions(24%). Hardly expert.
Excellent point. The predictions are rarely correct and often not close. But they provide an early indicator of one person’s opinion of the free agent market. FanGraphs also put out their top 50 free agents, and 17 out of the top 20 free agents overlapped with the MLBTR top 20.
There will be a ton of opportunities this offseason. Brad Hand passed through waivers unclaimed as he was owed $10 Mil for next year. Geez, that Kenley contract looks horrible now with $20 Mil remaining for next year.
Arenado has an opt out after next year and Story will be a free agent. Looks like a great time for the Rockies to rebuild.
Sign Bauer and JT? Done for the offseason. That would put May and Gonsolin in the pen with a rotation of Kersh, Bueller, Price, Bauer, Urias.
No, Price is not going to opt out next year and here’s why. Let’s start with the obvious. There’s 32 Million reasons why as stipulated in his contract. Maybe the bigger reason is that plenty of players got Covid and no one died. He wants to complete for a ring and this might be his last chance to do it. He’s anxious to show how good he is now that he got the tumor removed from his wrist. Probably the most important reason is that there is no indication that there will even be an offer to opt out. Remember, the Dodgers were so scared of the virus that everyone on the team permitted JT to come back onto the field to celebrate.
Price opting out of next year is a non-story. It’s more likely he feels like an idiot right about now with some serious regrets about his decision this last season.
I have been giving some thought to the baseball offseason, generally and to the Dodgers specifically. There are several confounding factors:
1 – Losses from 2020. These are estimated at $3.1 BB throughout MLB and over $200MM for the Dodgers alone. As I posted before, the Dodgers have laid off an estimated 5 scouts and have cut the salaries of all non-players making over $75K by 35%. Other teams have made more draconian cuts. The Dodgers are not made of money and while they may be better able to pick up a bargain than others, I don’t expect another big splash this offseason.
2 – The next CBA. The current agreement ends in 12/21. Things are very tense between management and labor and it’s not a given that there will be a 2022 season. Do the Dodgers plan for that contingency and if so, how?
3 – COVID. The bad virus is still a thing. It’s not a given that there will be a normal season in 2021 – either a full 162 games or that the Stadium will be allowed to fill up. Again, what will this cost and what contingencies will there be?
4 – Future payroll considerations. Cory Seager is a free agent after next year as is Chris Taylor. Julio Urias is a free agent in 2024 as are Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. Walker Buehler is in 2025. I assume that the Dodgers will want to keep most of their best homegrown products and it’s going to cost $$. By the way, that Clayton Kershaw guy will be a free agent in 2022 too.
The money will have to color the Dodgers’ decisions as much as any other team’s.
Good stuff Rick.
And if the Dodgers are tightening the purse strings, many others will be as well.
We can’t change the past (2020) and I would bet a lot of money that there is not a baseball work stoppage in 2022.
That leaves 2021. How do team managements proceed?
I’m thinking timing will determine much. Who waits, who doesn’t? Will there be a DH in the NL. When will the teams know. When will a vaccine hit the market. How effective will it be.
This is a gambling man’s off-season. A gambling GM that guesses right could win big but if not, could easily lose their job.
The clock is ticking towards 2021.
Curious about Sborz. You mention he could be DFA but the Dodgers did use him this year (albeit for only 4 innings with reasonably good stats). I think the Dodgers did him a dis-service early is his career by trying to make him a starter.
Terrific information AC. Very comprehensive. I’m just settling in to follow who’s in, whose’s out, who’s available. It should be very, very interesting.
* Will Joc and Kike get everyday player opportunities and the $ they want elsewhere?
* I think signing JT to 2 years is a no-brainer.
* Seager and the brass need that conversation about his desired position in the future. If he wants to move to 3rd, Badger can sign Lindor. How would Mookie and the switch hitting Lindor look in the line up?
* I would be very comfortable with Seager at short and making a run at DJ LeMahieu.
* But both DJ and Lindor might be priced out of this market for $ and length of contract for the Dodgers going forward. They just have too many current players they need to signed, coming up.
* My initial response to moving Smith is NO. But it is interesting. He’s a good catcher and can hit but lost some favor in the post-season and with Barnes doing so well. And second has become the “Black Hole”
* So should CT3 be given the second base job to lose in the spring? I love the guy but he has huge reverse splits and strikes out way too much.
* I would see what could be obtained in the market for the previously untouchable Lux. In addition, to get a right handed bat I might dangle Rios, Beaty, and K-Bear out there as well. Plus some of those minor league older prospects like Reks and Raley, with the exception of McKinstry and our young pitchers.
* I honestly don’t see many free agents that light up my Christmas Wish List. Bauer’s interesting. Semien remotely. Colton Wong remotely. I don’t see a lot of interest when we have comparable guys right in the organization that we already control.
* I think a closer (who?) signing is unnecessary as someone from within will evolve into the role in due time.
* MLB needs to decide soon about the DH for next year in order for teams build their rosters. JT might have a whole different situation if there is no DH, for example.
I can now engage my brain on 2021. It should be very interesting.
Seager is going to get whatever he wants. He’s a 0dWAR shortstop and a 5 oWAR offensive player… if he can stay on the field. His early projections having him landing back on planet earth. Lindor will probably end up with the Mets as they get ready to stomp the East. That’s the plan a way.
Trevor Bauer is not worth $30 million. I don’t know what a 3.9 ERA starter is worth but it’s certainly not $30 million.
I’m not saying we should sign Bauer, I really don’t think we need him, but as far as ERA is concerned, in his first 6 years he never had an ERA below 4.18.
His ERA’s for the past three years are 2.21, 4.48, 1.73. He has made use of stats and Driveline to become a much better pitcher. And in that middle year, his numbers were much worse in Cinn than in Cleve so part of that may have just been getting a line on NL hitters.
He WAS Driveline when he came to the league. They adopted his strategies.
He’s 30 with a lot of innings on that arm. Yeah, he could help us win some games, but ain’t worth $100 million. Not to me anyway. His projections scream #4 money.
Badger, I beg to differ with your statement Trevor Bauer WAS Driveline and Kyle Boddy and Driveline adopted Bauer’s strategies. I believe it’s the other way around. Boddy founded Driveline Baseball in 2012, in Kent, Washington.
The first MLB player to work with Driveline was Trevor Bauer, who had achieved his own success in gaining velocity and rotation and was looking to improve his command. Boddy and Bauer met in 2012, after Boddy presented his pitching research at the Texas Baseball Ranch in Montgomery, Texas. Bauer, who was in attendance, appreciated the science of Boddy’s presentation. After struggling in Triple-A Columbus in 2013, Bauer began to train with Boddy at Driveline Baseball prior to the 2014 season. Boddy was using all of the modern equipment to analyze and measure mechanics. So, Driveline was up and running before Bauer came on board. Although Boddy’s system was at first met with resistance from some baseball insiders, as was Bauer’s training and warm up. It has since 2014 been steadily getting more recognition and much more approval. It incorporates weighted baseballs and elements of recovery, mechanics and command, as well as the work of other pitching experts, such as Mike Marshall, Tom House, Ron Wolforth, Alan Jaeger and Coop DeRenne. Boddy is still affiliated with Driveline but is now the Director of Minor League Pitching for the Reds.
Thanks for the schooling phil
I was being hyperbolic
The point I was trying to make is that Bauer has been doing it his way since he was a kid. He use the weighted ball, long toss and the vibrating tube in high school. He was initially trained by his dad, an engineer, and he himself studied mechanical engineering in college. His well known run ins with Gerritt Cole began in the weight room because Trevor did his own way
https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/02/19/trevor-bauer-cleveland-indians-training-tools-twitter-controversy-cy-young
Excellent analysis. Jeff is da bomb! No way any pitcher not named Kershaw gets a 32 mil a year deal from the Dodgers. Not with Belli, Seager er al on the horizon soon. Oh yeah, Buehler too. I think the only Dodger free agent who comes back is Turner. All of the others are easily replaceable with the number of players on the free agent list, and those who still might be added. I know Baez is comfortable in LA, and there is a slim chance they sign him back. But I think there are so many options out there right now, that it would be prudent for AF to check all of his boxes before he signs anyone. Also, the last few years, it has been after the winter meetings before AF has signed any free agents. Then just before spring starts, he loads up on players.
For those of you who are interested in even more detail on what to do with the bullpen this off season and a LONG list of some of the potential guys out there in free agency and trade, I’m attaching a link to an article in Future Dodgers.
Warning: it’s a long read and the bullpen part comes about a third of the way into the article but if you like this kind of stuff, it’s well worth your time. Jeff D, this should be right up your alley if you haven’t seen it yet. Adds some detail on to what you were speaking about above, plus lots of other names.
https://futuredodgers.wordpress.com/2020/10/31/hitchhikers-guide-to-a-repeat-offseason-manifesto-2020-21/
That was very interesting, thanks!
I had it bookmarked, but I had not yet had an opportunity to read through it. But I am in the process of drafting a post on pitchers so this will become a very beneficial source. Futuredodgers is generally a good source. So thanks for pushing it too the top of my reading list for this evening.
I’ll be interested to read your response to his take on bullpen pieces as you and I often tend to head toward the same guys when we’re trying to help AF improve his relief pitching.
Great read. I know have the site bookmarked. Thanks Jefe.
STB, it was a very good read. In my notes for upcoming blog posts, I had earmarked my top relief pitching FA target as Trevor May and my top FA position player target as Ha-Seong Kim. I have also been on Jose Leclerc watch since early 2018 (pre-closer role). I was advocating for Leclerc, when the Rangers had both Kela and Leclerc. I have also posted pre-2020 about Kyle Crick. He is down the list, but he is controllable thru 2023 and it may not take a lot to get him out of Pittsburgh. I am just not sure he is a better option than Dylan Floro. I may be in the minority, but I am a Dylan Floro fan. OTOH, Jesse Hahn never registered with me. I do not know why because KC quite often has formidable bullpens. He is a legit consideration, and I will include him in my reliever watch. There are others in his column that I have also considered and will write about them coming up.
We’ve both been Leclerc fans through the years. I must admit I haven’t followed Crick much, or Hahn.
If we would sign Kim, where would you expect him to play long term and how long until he actually made the major league roster? I know he’s played short and third in Korea. I wonder if he could also play second? I guess any shortstop should be able to play second. Maybe with some uncertainty in future years at both second and third (and short if Corey doesn’t stay) it would be worth the gamble.
He can play 2B. If the Dodgers sign Kim, and there is no chatter that he is on their list, the Lux becomes expendable. If Lux is moved, I would feel far more comfortable with Kim at 2B on an everyday basis than McKinstry. Kim also fills the RH hitter role, with power, that they are looking for.
Big D is on a HOF list again. He and Dizzy Dean are up as finalists for the Frick Award. That inducts announcers into the Hall. The Dodgers have a few in there already with Jarrin and Vin. Red Barber is there too. Would be a nice feather on Big D’s cap.
Chris Taylor is the Rodney Dangerfield of the Dodgers. That dude gets no respect. His career splits are almost identical facing lefties and righties and his career OPS is within 10 points of Merrifield and DJLM despite playing in a more pitching friendly park. BTW, Colton Wong isn’t close to the hitter that any of those three are.
I read an article recently that said Yankee stadium’s dimensions are tailor made for DJLM and they doubt his offense would carry over to another team as well as it had with the Yankees. Talk about splits, see DJ’s home and road for last year.
I think the Dodger respect Chris a lot. That is why he got a 2 year deal last winter and Kike did not. I think they will vote Chicken Strip some WS cash. He was a huge part of what they did early in the year.
Predicting what AF does in the off season is tough in most years. With the economics of this years off season it is that much harder.
Hand having cleared waivers at $10M is a buyers market, without any buyers. I suspect AF will remain on the sideline until a floor has been determined. That will likely take some time.
Using the estimate of 40 cents on the dollar the frequently discussed $12M/yr figure for JT may be $5M/yr. That’s “it’s March and I don’t have a contract yet” territory.
Just a few observations:
1. I would think that MLB Trade Rumors would be smarter than to predict that Bauer signs with the Dodgers, but then they go on to predict a 4 years $128 million dollar deal and I realized that have absolutely NO CLUE about how Friedman operates. None whatsoever! That is high comedy!
2. Friedman might trade Lux for Lindor, but he won’t add much to that, and even then, he could be playing with fire. I just can’t see risking pissing off Corey Seager.
3. Here’s some names Fredman might be interested in (at the right price): Mike Foltynewicz! Corey Kluber! Liam Hendricks (well, duhhhh)! Brad Hand!
Trevor Bauer once said he would sign a series of 1 year contracts because contenders would be willing to pay him $35 million to help win. I don’t believe he’s worth it, but, I’ve been wrong before.
I would trade Lux for Lindor. Cleveland would want more and will get more. Our team should be built around Betts, not Seager.
I’ve already signed Hendriks. I don’t need those other guys
You might be astonished at how the market for Lindor has changed from last winter to this off season.
1) The Covid effect on team revenues has devastated some teams’ ability to go out and get players this winter
2) Lindor had a sub-par 2020
3) Very few teams are now willing/able to pick up a $20MM salary for 2021
4) The Indians are probably pretty desperate to dump that salary.
5) It’s a buyer’s market, even for someone as talented as Lindor.
Long story short, if AF calls the Indians and says Lux for Lindor straight up, I think they say yes. You and I have gone round and round as to whether getting Lindor would be a good idea but I bet that Cleveland would do that trade. Make the call Badger, you might be happy with the result.
I don’t know Seager’s ego but my guess is asking him to change position wouldn’t go over well. I’m sure he must know Lindor is better in the field than he is and in fact may be his equal if not better than him offensively. The numbers say he clearly is but he’s also been an everyday player since he came up. Seager hasn’t. Frankly I think a position change would good for his health. My call? I don’t change that position unless Seager is ok with it. If he is, yes I trade Lux for Lindor. And I’m a Lux fan. He’s going to be a great player, someday. Lindor is an All Star now.
Folty is a good call. He was really good in 2018 before imploding the following season. I thought that he looked really good. He’s only 29 and was set up as the Braves’ ace. Worth a flier for sure.
Hendricks and Hand will be expensive. I wonder if Friedman is up for spending big $$ on another reliever when the Dodgers owe $20MM to Jansen for next year and $22MM to Kelly for the next 2 seasons.
Kluber is 35. He might be worth a flier on a 1 year bridge type contract but he hasn’t been healthy since 2018. Interesting though.
I think there’s an option for 2022 on Kelly.
Correct. $8.833MM for 2021. Club option for 2022 at $12MM or $4MM buyout. I think Joe gets the $4MM and not the option, and 2021 will be Joe’s last year as a LAD.
Expensive is a matter of definition. Hendricks and Hand’s combined salaries will probably be less than Kenley’s $20 MM next year, no matter who winds up signing them.
Folty is definitely worth a roll of the dice but I imagine he’ll get a number of offers. Not sure any of them will be for a major league contract though.
Not sure why Kluber would even entertain an offer from AF, where he would be about number 6-8 on the depth chart. Go somewhere like the Angels where at least you’ll get some innings.
I like Folty, but he is going to get a guaranteed contract with a team that desperately needs starting pitching. Think Pittsburgh or Baltimore. While I think he is a definite bounce-back candidate, the Dodgers do not need him, and there are other opportunities that need to be explored.
AF is like a record collector. He’s constantly looking in the bins for a great deal, but he will out the pocketbook for the right item.
I don’t think it is a sure thing that Turner will be a Dodger next year.
Pollock may have done enough in 2020 to make him tradeable.
A 2021 rotation of Buehler, Kershaw, Price, Urias and one from Gonsolin, May, and Gray tells me the Dodgers don’t need to spend money on Bauer.
I wonder if the Angels would sign Joc and trade Jo Adell for pitching.
Steve Cohn, the new Mets owner has been a lifetime fan of the Mets.
He has tons of money and might like to spend it on his childhood team.
I can see him doing the following:
1. Trading prospects for Lindor (what few they have);
2. Signing Bauer to that 4 year/$128 Million deal;
3. Signing JT Realmuto
That would make them legit! I’m not saying it’s smart, but I think it is possible.
Would you:
Trade for Josh Hader from Milwaukee and to get him you have to give up Gavin Lux (from Kenosha, WI), Matt Beaty, and Landon Knack to get him.
Would you?
I wouldn’t trade Lux straight up for Hader as I believe Lux’s future value is much higher at this point. Remember, AF refused to include Lux in the Betts and Lindor talks.
Yup, Lux was untradeable. But that was before this short season and his ill fated debut. I’m in favor of seeing what he can bring on the market with others I previously mentioned.
Speaking of previously mentioned on every occasion concerning the possibility of Seager changing positions I have clearly suggested that a conversation needs to take place with Cory and the brass to see what he wants to do. If he wants to stay put, Lindor is off the table. Maybe DJ Or a corner bat goes on it. But it’s Cory’s call. He deserves that respect. I’m sure A-Rod could have stayed at short somewhere but moved for Jeter. I’m sure Machado could be playing short somewhere but moved for Tatis. That doesn’t have to be a sensitive conversation. But it needs to be private. And it needs to happen before any moves are made.
Do you really think Lux is going to be a better player than Verdugo? If you could switch them out now, would you mind at all? What’s the old saying, ‘ a bird in hand is worth two in the bush’. I would love to have Verdugo back but not crying over spilt milk. In this case, Mookie is not spilt milk.
Typically, great closers make in the $20M neighborhood. How long is it going to take Lux to reach this milestone, if ever? Pollock, making $18M next season. Is he worth it? Not to me. He bounced back this year but who would sign him for that kind of money now? Imagine Verdugo in his place. That’s value even for the future. Signing a guy like Pollock to a 5 year deal was indulgent. A weak move, imo.
Would I?
No.
My gut tells me the whole concept of a closer is changing. Relief pitchers are obviously important but I don’t trade an everyday potential All Star for a one inning guy. I certainly wouldn’t trade that everyday guy and two other prospects for him.
I see where the two commenters above me wouldn’t do that trade.
I’ll bet the Brewers wouldn’t either.
Beaty and Knack have relatively little trade value and Lux , although in a very small sample size, didn’t perform well last year.
They would probably start with something like Lux, Ruiz, and Gray and negotiate from there.
AF won’t do that. And we need to keep in mind that now that the WS monkey is off his back, Andrew is even less likely to make a deal he isn’t totally happy with.
Yeah, Lux didn’t perform. Neither did Bellinger. Muncy’s terrible year was saved by looking at so many strikes while working walks. There were many players who had off years. I believe every team had good players that had bad years. This year should not be held against them.
Gavin Lux was at one time the #2 prospect at mlb.com. That was 2019. He OPS’d over 1.000 in the minors. This year should not be held against him.
Perceptions are hard things to ignore. Even on this board, the perception of Lux has changed dramatically from saviour to bust, depending on which day of the week the perceiver woke up on the wrong side of the bed. This is more baggage for him to haul around and to try and get rid of. This team has advanced since he came up late in 2019. Lux has not. He’s already fighting and I’m not sure what the outcome will be, but at this point, if there really is a sensible trade to be done, I would include Lux. We are not bereft of a player or two to hold this position in the present.
The Dodgers will announce a new lineup with Muncy designated as DW. Designated Walker=Muncy.
Lux or Muncy plus pitcher(s) for Glyber Torres
Won’t happen. The Yanks do not need either of them. And their biggest need is starting pitching, and the Dodgers do not really have a surplus in that department.
Probably not but I still would like to watch Glyber as a Dodger.
Still, one would think the cleanup hitter on the best team in baseball should be a top hitter in the MLB. I get a kick out of saying that.
Your best hitter should be hitting 3rd. But Seager hit second. Turner is one of the most clutch. Muncy only became the cleanup hitter because Belli was not having a great year. Neither of course was Muncy, but he was one of their better power hitters in 2019. 4th is traditionally a power spot in the lineup. In that sense Belli started the season there. I do not know much about Torres, and not even sure the Yankees want to move the guy. With Lemahieu gone, they probably want to keep him,
I am not giving up Lux for a reliever when there are so many good ones on the market for just some cash. The kid could be a star. Got to keep the young cheap pipeline going so we can sign Seager Buehler and al. Speaking of al will the real Cody Bellinger show himself in 21. He needs a Seager like comeback year: