Dodgers and Braves NLCS Preview

Today, the Dodgers face off against the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the 2020 NLCS.  The Dodgers have never faced the Braves for the pennant before.  They have faced each other three times in Divisional Series play.

1996 NLDS – Dodgers lost to Atlanta 3 games to 0

2013 NLDS – Dodgers beat Atlanta 3 games to 1

2018 NLDS – Dodgers beat Atlanta 3 games to 1

Before I get into the numbers and position comparisons, I would like to discuss how happy I am that the Yankees are out of the Playoffs.  There are three teams that I detest: SF Giants, NY Yankees, and Houston Cheaters.  Giants did not make the playoffs…Yaaaaay.  Yankees out after losing to Tampa Bay… Yaaaaay.  Unfortunately, the Asterisks get another series, but I cannot see them losing in a 7 game series to a much deeper and more balanced Tampa Bay Rays team.  Without going through an analysis, this feels like a Tampa Bay win in 5.

Now on to the NLCS.

There is a need for more pitching in a seven game no days off series than it was for the Wild Card or NLDS.  The Braves already had 15 on the LDS roster.  If they want to go 16, they could add Touki Toussaint probably as a long man for innings in a bullpen game.  I doubt that the Braves will get upset if they have to jettison Charlie Culberson or Pablo Sandoval to make room.  But let’s go with the NLDS roster for right now:

  • RHSP (3) – Ian Anderson, Josh Tomlin, Kyle Wright
  • LHSP (1) – Max Fried
  • RHRP (7) – Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Mark Melancon, Darren O’Day, Jacob Webb, Bryce Wilson, Huascar Ynoa (Could be an opener to get some innings)
  • LHRP (4) – Grant Dayton, Tyler Matzek, A. J. Minter, “The Other” Will Smith
  • Catchers (2) – Travis d’Arnaud, Tyler Flowers (Back up)
  • INF (4) – Ozzie Albies (2B), Freddie Freeman (1B), Austin Riley (3B), Dansby Swanson (SS)
  • OF (3) – Ronald Acuna (CF), Adam Duvall (LF), Nick Markakis (RF)
  • DH (1) – Marcell Ozuna
  • Bench (3) – Charlie Culberson (INF), Pablo Sandoval (INF), Christian Pache (OF)

The Braves already have 15 pitchers on the roster.  Will they go to 16?  With only two proven starters, and three at the most, they are going to need pitching.  For the post season, only nine Braves have any ABs.  Culberson, Flowers, and Pache got into the game as a PR or for defense.  Do they really need Culberson and Sandoval?  Pache is the Braves designated PR, but he can also play defense, making him an upgrade over Terrance Gore who is strictly a PR.  Touki Toussaint is not much of an upgrade as a pitcher, but he does give them length on the bump, and that could prove to be more important than Pablo Sandoval coming off the bench; something he has not done in the post season.

The Dodgers could have a couple of changes in store for the NLCS.  First consideration is whether Edwin Rios is ready to come back as the DH/3B.  Originally, I got the impression that Doc did not think he would be down for both the NLDS and NLCS.  If considered healthy, Rios could replace Lux.  But a later observation is that Rios is only 75%, and that it is a “game time decision”. Next consideration is whether they need another long reliever to potentially eat innings (Alex Wood/Mitch White) or another short reliever (Scott Alexander/Josh Sborz).  I do not think they will carry the third catcher.  IMO they could use the additional pitching rather than a PR, but for whatever reason, the powers believe that a PR will be needed to score that important run at some point.  I see Gore remaining on the roster. I just do not think that Wood or Alexander are healthy enough, and I do not think that White or Sborz are trusted enough for the NLCS.  I have no idea how Rios’ injury is; however, I do not think that Rios is a game changer, I believe the Dodgers believe Rios has a strong future, so I do not think they take a chance of injuring Rios more. Maybe for the WS he will get better. Not having Rios in the NLCS is not going to change the results. I am going with Wood as a long reliever, and Lux back to the taxi squad.

  • RHSP (1) – Walker Buehler (Announced Game 1 Starter)
  • LHSP (1) – Clayton Kershaw (Announced Game 2 Starter)
  • HYBRID SP/RP (3) – Dustin May (RH), Tony Gonsolin (RH), Julio Urias (LH)
  • RHRP (6) – Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Brusdar Graterol, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen
  • LHRP (4) – Victor Gonzalez, Adam Kolarek, Jake McGee, Alex Wood
  • Catchers (2) – Will Smith, Austin Barnes (Backup)
  • INF (4) – Max Muncy (1B), Chris Taylor (2B), Corey Seager (SS), Justin Turner (3B)
  • OF (3) – AJ Pollock (LF), Cody Bellinger (CF), Mookie Betts  (RF)
  • DH (1) – Joc Pederson
  • Bench (3) – Kike’ Hernandez (INF/OF), Matt Beaty (1B/PH), Terrance Gore (PR)

Final Record – Seeding

  • Dodgers – 43-17 – (1)
  • Braves – 35-25 – (2) – 3rd best record behind LA and San Diego

Offense as a team:

Runs Scored:

  • Dodgers – 249 (1)
  • Braves – 248 (2)

Run Differential:

  • Dodgers – +136 (1)
  • Braves – +60 (Tied for 3rd with Tampa Bay and White Sox)

Home Runs:

  • Dodgers – 118 (1)
  • Braves – 103 (2)

Note: This will probably not be a major consideration because of the park they will be playing in.

Offensive Comparisons – Season

Team/SplitBAOBPSLGOPS
Overall
Dodgers.256.338.483.821
MLB Ranking(11)(5)(1)(2)
Braves.268.349.483.821
MLB Ranking(2)(1)(2)(1)
RISP
Dodgers.291.408.547.955
MLB Ranking(2)(1)(2)(2)
Braves.264.365.426.791
MLB Ranking(4)(6)(9)(5)
RISP w/2 outs
Dodgers.298.408.547.955
MLB Ranking(1)(1)(2)(1)
Braves.264.365.426.791
MLB Ranking(4)(6)(9)(5)

Pitching Comparisons – Season

Team/SplitIPERAWHIPBAAK/9BB/9
Overall
Dodgers538.23.021.06.2138.642.42
MLB Ranking(1)(1)(1)(23)(1)
Braves524.14.411.36.2478.693.78
MLB Ranking(15)(17)(20)(22)(19)
Starters
Dodgers276.13.291.07.2198.442.28
MLB Ranking(2)(1)(2)(19)(2)
Braves251.25.511.45.2588.014.04
MLB Ranking(28)(27)(21)(28)(28)
Relievers
Dodgers262.22.741.04.2078.852.57
MLB Ranking(2)(1)(1)(23)(1)
Braves272.23.501.28.2369.313.53
MLB Ranking(4)(12)(17)(17)(9)

Outside of strikeouts, the Dodgers are in the top two in each of the above categories. I did review the post season numbers, but because of the small sample size (5 games), and because of the difference in competition, I did not find them meaningful.

Catcher:

Dodgers – Will Smith – .289/.401/.579/.980

Braves – Travis d’Arnaud – .321/.386/.533/.919

Dodgers – Austin Barnes – .244/.353/.314/.667

Braves – Tyler Flowers – .217/.325/.348/.673

Travis d’Arnaud had a career year, but still trails Will Smith in OBP, SLG, and OPS.  Smith has an OPS+ of 164 and a bWAR of 1.3, while d’Arnaud has an OPS+ of 138 and bWAR of .6.  Defensively, Smith is considered a better behind the plate with 1 passed ball compared to 5 for d’Arnaud, and has a stronger arm with a 23% CS% to d’Arnaud’s 11%.  D’Arnaud has had a terrific post season, but so has Smith.  This is a close comparison, but – Advantage – Dodgers.

1B:

Dodgers – Max Muncy – .192/.331/.389/.720

Braves – Freddie Freeman – .341/.462/.640/1.102

Freeman is the projected MVP, and has been exceptional all year, while Muncy never really recovered from his ST 2.0 injury, and has been mired in a season long slump.  Freeman has not had a very good post season, but neither has Muncy.  I am trying to find a silver lining in this, but there really isn’t one.  Advantage (Huge) – Braves.

2B:

Dodgers – Chris Taylor – .270/.366/.476/.842

Braves – Ozzie Albies – .271/.306/.466/.773

Chris Taylor has won the 2B job because of his season long production.  CT3 had an excellent September with .296/.374/.617/.991 – 6 HR and 23 RBI.  At the beginning of the season, Ozzie Albies would have been on many if not most top 2B in the league lists.  But like many others in this weird year, Albies was a bit off.  CT3 had an OPS+ of 128 and a bWAR of 1.8, while Albies had an OPS+ of 99, and a bWAR of .6.  This is an unexpected, but well deserved – Advantage – Dodgers.

SS:

Dodgers – Corey Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943

Braves – Dansby Swanson – .274/.345/.464/.809

I love the name Dansby Swanson.  It has a very southern gentleman sound to it.  Swanson had a fantastic season both offensively and defensively.  Corey had a MVP consideration season offensively, but was not strong defensively.  Corey had an OPS + of 152, compared to 110 for Swanson.  Seager’s bWAR was 1.9 while Swanson’s was 2.6.  The difference was predominantly due to the superior defense of Swanson.  Seager still has a great arm, but sometimes loses concentration.  It is the playoffs, and Seager has had a clean post season, while Swanson has one error.  With his 42 OPS+ advantage this is Advantage – Dodgers.

3B:

Dodgers – Justin Turner – .307/.400/.460/.860

Braves – Austin Riley – .239/.301/.415/.716

This was is not close.  JT has been one of the most consistent hitters on the Dodgers roster since he came to LA in 2014.  He has also been consistently productive in the post season.  This is Riley’s 2nd year, and he has been below replacement level since his debut.  JT has an OPS+ of 135 and a bWAR of 1.3, while Riley has an OPS+ 86 and a bWAR of -0.7.  Neither 3B distinguishes themselves defensively.  This one is not close – Advantage – Dodgers.

LF:

Dodgers – AJ Pollock – .276/.314/.566/.881

Braves – Adam Duvall – .237/.301/.532/.833

Duvall has had a pair of 30+ HR seasons, while AJ had a high of 21 going into the season.  However, both LF had 16 HR’s in 2020.  AJ had a superior offensive season in every slash metric. And while he did have an error in the NLDS Game 3, he is considered a better defensive OF who can play CF when Belli plays 1B.  AJ had an OPS+ of 134 and a bWAR of 0.6, while Duvall’s OPS+ was 113 and an identical bWAR of 0.6.  LF is an offensive position, and AJ clearly had a better season.  Advantage – Dodgers.

CF:

Dodgers – Cody Bellinger – .239/.333/.456/.789

Braves – Ronald Acuna – .250/.406/.581/.987

Ronald Acuna will get MVP consideration, while 2020 was a forgettable year for Belli. Belli has had a very good last two weeks and post season. Acuna outpaced Belli in all offensive slash categories.  His OPS+ was 155, while his bWAR was 2.1.  Belli’s 2020 OPS+ was 113 and his bWAR was 1.4.  Both players are considered GG caliber CF.  Even considering the small sample size, Belli continues to show signs of breaking through with a post season slash line of .316/.381/.579/.960, compared to Acuna’s of .273/.360/.500/.860. And while this should have been a closer decision, it really is Advantage – Braves.

RF:

Dodgers – Mookie Betts – .292/.366/.562/.928

Braves – Nick Markakis – .254/.312/.392/.704

Nick Markakis is a fine player who has had a very good 15 year career in Baltimore and Atlanta.  He is at the tail end of his career, while Mookie Betts is in the prime of his career and will get considerable MVP voting.  There is no comparison offensively or defensively between these two. Advantage (Huge) – Dodgers.

DH:

Dodgers – Edwin Rios – .250/.301/.645/.946

Braves – Marcell Ozuna – .338/.431/.636/1.067

Marcell Ozuna is yet another having a MVP caliber year while Edwin Rios is just learning.  Rios has a powerful bat, but needs to learn pitch recognition and plate discipline. Advantage (Huge) – Braves.

Bench:

Dodgers – Joc Pederson, Kike’ Hernandez, Matt Beaty, Terrance Gore

Braves – Christian Pache, Charlie Culberson, Pablo Sandoval

I do not believe that either team’s bench will be much of a factor, but the Dodgers’ bench is superior to the Braves.  Joc Pederson seems to come to life for the playoffs and while he may continue to hit well in post season, he could just as likely strike out every AB.  Joc does seem to know October.  Kike’ is a great defensive replacement and is another Dodger who started slowly but had a good September.  Matt Beaty will be a LHH off the bench, and Gore is the PR.  The Braves do not use their bench.  Such as it is Advantage – Dodgers.

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers:

  • Walker Buehler (R) – 36.2, 3.44, 0.95, .178
  • Clayton Kershaw (L) – 58.1, 2.16, 0.84, .194
  • Dustin May (R) – 56.0, 2.57, 1.09, .220
  • Julio Urias (L) – 55.0, 3.27, 1.15, .220
  • Tony Gonsolin (R) – 46.2, 2.31, 0.84, .193

Braves:

  • Max Fried (L) – 56.0, 2.25, 1.09, .211
  • Ian Anderson (R) – 32.1, 1.95, 1.08, .172
  • Kyle Wright (R) – 38.0, 5.21, 1.55, .243
  • Josh Tomlin (R) – 39.2, 4.76, 1.21, .263

The Braves have a very good starting 1-2 in Max Fried and Ian Anderson.  Anderson is a rookie, and it would not be the first time that a rookie succumbed to the pressure of a Championship Series.  However, he was outstanding in the Wild Card and NLDS, so I suspect he will take on the challenge very well.  But after Fried and Anderson, it gets light.  Kyle Wright will go in as the #3, but all of the publications are touting him because of his last couple of starts, including a gem in the NLDS against a very woeful offensive Miami Marlins squad.  I expect Josh Tomlin to be #4 and then ?????  On the other hand the Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and then Tony Gonsolin/Dustin May/Julio Urias in some fashion.  

This is a seven game no off day series, so depth and length in the starting pitching will be key.  The Dodgers depth is considerable compared to the Braves, even though Fried and Anderson can pitch on any MLB rotation.  With Gonsolin/May/Urias compared to Wright/Tomlin/?, the Dodgers appear to be better set at Starting Pitching – Advantage – Dodgers.

Relief Pitchers:

Dodgers:

  • Pedro Baez (R) – 17.0, 3.18, 1.00, .159
  • Dylan Floro (R) – 24.1, 2.59, 1.11, .250
  • Victor Gonzalez (L)  – 20.1, 1.33, 0.74, .176
  • Brusdar Graterol (R) – 23.1, 3.09, 0.90, .225
  • Kenley Jansen (R) – 24.1, 3.33, 1.15, .211
  • Joe Kelly (R) – 10.0, 1.80, 1.50, .235
  • Adam Kolarek (L) – 19.0, 0.95, 0.79, .164
  • Jake McGee (L) – 20.1, 2.66, 0.84, .187
  • Blake Treinen (R) – 25.2, 3.86, 1.21, .240

Braves:

  • Shane Greene (R) – 27.2, 2.60, 1.12, .229
  • Chris Martin (R) – 18.0, 1.00, 0.61, .129
  • Mark Melancon (R) – 22.2, 2.78, 1.28, .262
  • Darren O’Day (R) – 16.1, 1.10, 0.80, .136
  • Jacob Webb (R) – 10.0, 0.00, 1.20, .200
  • Bryce Wilson (R) – 15.2, 4.02, 1.72, .286
  • Huascar Ynoa (R) – 21.2, 5.82, 1.66, .277
  • Grant Dayton (L) – 27.1, 2.30, 1.21, .214
  • Tyler Matzek (L) – 29.0, 2.79, 1.14, .211
  • A.J. Minter (L) – 21.2, 0.83, 1.11, .200
  • The Other Will Smith (L) – 16.0, 4.50, 0.94, .190

This is a tough one.  The Braves have superior back end high leverage bullpen options, but may not have the horses necessary in bullpen games.  Chris Martin, Will Smith, and Mark Melancon are as good of a back end bullpen combination as there is.  Right now, the Dodgers back end is unknown.  The middle relievers and situational relievers probably favor the Dodgers as they do not have one reliever (pitcher) with an ERA north of 3.86, while the Braves have three.   Although I am not a big believer in the importance of ERA for relievers, especially in a short season.  As a team, the Dodgers bullpen is better in every metric.  The Dodgers have the depth to go deep into bullpen, while the Braves will be relying on their big three (Smith, Martin, Melancon) with Matzek, O’Day, and Green as the B team.  I have become a Tyler Matzek fan as he has seemingly come out of nowhere to be a strength in the pen.  The Dodgers will put one of the three (May, Gonsolin, Urias) into the bullpen for this series.  I do not have all of the facts, and I have not spoken to any of the coaches, but in a vacuum, I would put Tony Gonsolin at the back end of the bullpen.  Of the three, IMO he has the best pitching repertoire to succeed in high leverage situations.  He can help win a WS ring this year as a back end high leverage reliever, and get back to starting next year. I would still have an opener for Urias, so he does not have to pitch the 1st.  I like the Braves back end, but I also like the Dodgers depth.  I am going to call this a draw because of the unknown usage in a 7 game no off day series.  Advantage – Even.

The Dodgers faced a far tougher opponent in the NLDS but did not have to play more than did the Braves.  The Braves faced two of the weakest offensive teams, while the Dodgers faced off against an offense (San Diego) as good as LAD or ATL.  I have no idea what kind of rivalry exists between the Braves and Fish, but I doubt that it is nearly as intense as with the Dodgers and Padres.  The Braves have a couple of big advantages over the Dodgers at 1B and DH, and a slimmer advantage in CF.  But the Dodgers figure to dominate the other positions and overall pitching. 

I pick the Dodgers in 5.

This article has 114 Comments

  1. Dodger pitching keeps them in every game. If they situational hit like they did against the Padres, I can see (and hope for) a sweep. If not, then 5 or 6. All Doc has to do is manage his bullpen/closer situation. You don’t need a set closer to win the WS. Witness the last 3 or 4 World Series winners. My sense is that he’s learned a lot about playoff baseball. His decisions so far this year have been pretty solid (not a lot of praise but much fewer complaints). He’s got great talent in the bullpen and an excess of of other arms to chose from. I think he’ll step up and do a great job.
    Go Blue!

  2. Typo. You say you cannot see the Astros losing to a stronger team like Tampa Bay. I think you mean winning, no?

  3. Very nice team comparisons Jeff, this should be a very good series with the Dodgers winning in 5.

  4. Maybe we could trade KJ to the Braves so that they could have that extra pitcher (note to Bear, this is a joke, don’t give detailed info on why you can’t make trades at this point in the season)

    Rumor has it that Roberts has been banned from this blog for not wholeheartedly supporting KJ as his closer during this series (note to Bear, this is a joke).

    As in most playoff series, this thing will come down to pitching. I think in particular this one comes down to how effective Walker Buehler is, in other words can his blistered finger hold up. He is getting the nod to lead things off, thus he is being counted on to start the most games, should this series go to 7 games. KJ and Kelly are major concerns for the ending innings of games and does Roberts go with facts or emotions in the use of them. My hope is that Roberts will not put these guys in the game past the 7th inning. At least if they screw up, the Dodgers would have 2 innings at bat to try and overcome these potential arsonists, I mean relievers.

    Has anyone else noticed that going with fairly set line-ups throughout the playoffs is starting to show real benefits, as in the Dodgers can score runs without just relying on HRs? It is almost as if, set lineups allow players to discover how they fit and what roles they should be playing at bat when it comes to producing runs, in whatever form necessary. What a strange concept to use in playing the game of baseball! (the last sentence, that was sarcasm Bear).

  5. I rarely comment so I can’t back it up but I’ve said since spring training that Urias should be our closer. I still think that.
    Jansen as game 4 opener?

    1. Urias as closer. Interesting idea. If we are going to convert a starter I’d go with Gonsolin. By next year Brusdar will probably earn the job. Now? Late innings by matchups.

      October 12, 2020 at 12:14 am Dodgerfan

      “On another site it was mentioned that it could be a good chance the Dodgers move will Smith to 3rd Barns and Keibar as catchers and Deigo Cartaya about two years away. What are the chances this might happen.“

      I remember reading that last year. He’s played 58 games at third in the minors, 11 at second, so he’s been there before. What do we do with Rios? First? Trade Muncy? And Hoese may only be another year away. He played 3 years at Tulane, so at age 23 I expect him to be knocking on the door by next year.

      Rays vs Dodgers would be the matchup of the 2 best teams. That happens now and then. I’d prefer that this year.

  6. Smith’s bat is such an advantage at catcher. I prefer Rios’s bat at third over Barnes’s at catcher. And you have to give Muncy a chance at first to rebound from this year. And Turner at dh. Lots of possibilities the year after tho.

    1. We don’t know that Ruiz’ bat won’t be valuable. I think he has the ability to be a superior backstop, but I don’t know that either. Hoese is 6’4” and projects some thunder at third, and like I mentioned he’s going to be 24 this year. I thought it would be Ruiz and Smith sharing the 180 game seasons. Barnes? Didn’t think he was gonna stick around. Yeah, there are a number of options, and plenty of money, so it will be interesting. So will the next two series’.

      Congrats to the Lakers. Weird year for the NBA but they pulled it off. Well done. Hopefully baseball and football will squeeze a complete year in. No guarantees at this point.

      My thoughts and positive vibes go out to Mark and his family. I know he’s being challenged, but I trust it will be ok.

  7. Another HOF passes away. This time it is Joe Morgan who died at the age of 77. This is getting into the heart-breaking area with all of these contemporaries now passing. RIP Joe Morgan!!!

    1. Yes, seems like it is every day. Unfortunately, that is par for the course when one ages.

      I am a bright side of life person, so I use these events to review and savor memories.

    2. This one is a real pity. I do remember the heartbreak HR off Forster, although his Red days were a little before my time, but I remember him most for his great color commentary. He was insightful without having to over talk, and he oozed credibility.

  8. Nice analysis Jeff, Very well done. I thank you for mentioning my name Truth, but I figured you are baseball savvy enough to know the trade restrictions. Although they could trade KJ this off season if any team wants to take a run at him. Jeff, love you work. And you got most of it right. But the Dodgers have played the Braves for a pennant. Was not in this era, nor the same format, but it was supposed to be a 3 game playoff. 1959. Dodgers won the first two games and went to the World Series. And that Brave team was loaded with guys who had gone to the series 2 straight years, 57-58. Sad to hear about Morgan. He was one of those opposition guys you have nothing but respect for even when they are beating you. To me, even with all his years as a Red, the most painful hit he ever had was the HR he hit off of Terry Forster to knock the Dodgers out of the race. RIP Joe,. You were a class act.

    1. I should have been more clear on Dodgers/Braves playoffs history. I was only referring to the Championship Series era that began in 1969 when two divisions were created for both the National and American League. Of course you are correct that the Dodgers did beat the Milwaukee Braves 2 games to zero in a best 2 of 3 playoff for the National League pennant after both teams tied with identical 86-68 regular season records. Thank you.

      1. I figured that is what you meant…no problem. You have a lot more on your plate than what is considered by some, ancient history.

    1. Well that is a relief. It means Rios is healthy enough to hit. Gore should have never been on the roster anyway. Wood has experience. Lets just hope he finds some control.

      1. If one of the May, Urias, Gonsolin contingent goes to the bullpen, would Wood be the 5th starter?

        1. I doubt it would be Wood as a traditional starter. Suspect 5th game would be BP game.

          I expect we will see something more like we saw agains SD in the NLDS. May as bulk man and opener. Urias as bulk man etc. have no idea how Gonsolin will be used, but suspect it will be different than traditional in season rotation

          1. One would figure that but with 7 games in 7 days are the Dodgers going to use 5 starters or will Buehler/Kershaw go on 3 days rest?

            I agree with STB’s comments below.

  9. Thanks, AC, for that breakdown of the two teams. Lots of work went into that analysis. Sad to lose yet another of baseball’s greats, Joe Morgan, RIP.

  10. Rios – Doc said yesterday that he was 75% recovered and would probably only be available to pinch hit. That would indicate no third base in case JT is out for any reason and I’m not sure from his comments if it also meant no DH, but it looks like they’re going to use Joc for that anyway.

    No indication yet if any of May, Urias or Gonsolin becomes a long man and therefore not available to start game 5. If that’s the case, I suppose Wood could be inserted there. My preference is to go with our five best starters and use Wood to fill innings in a blow out game.

    1. My preference would be 5 starters in a traditional role like the regular season. We won all but one series in the season with that approach. That being said, the odds of that happening are just above zero.

      I’m looking for much the same as the NLDS, particularly with May and Urias. I have no idea how Gonsolin will be used but NLDS plan was as game 4 starter if we can believe what was said. I don’t see Wood as a 5th starter or opener. Dave May have a different opinion however

  11. White Sox let Rich Renteria go as manager. Red Sox shaking up coaching ranks. Congratulations to the Lakers. 10 years between titles. I watched the game, the score was never that close after the second quarter. Laker defense was smothering. Rondo second player to win a ring with the Lakers and the Celtics. LeBron and Danny Green join the ranks of players who won with 3 different franchises. Game one tonight is at 5:08 Pacific time, one hour later here on FOX. Rest of the series moves to FS 1.for game 2 on.

    1. Hahn says the next White Sox manager will likely be someone from outside the organization and with championship experience in the recent past. I guess it’s just a matter of finding out if it’s going to be Cora or Hinch.

      Cora might have his choice between the White Sox and Red Sox and the guy who doesn’t wind up in Chicago might go to Boston.

      For those who thought that Cora and Hinch might never work in baseball again, take another guess.

      1. And that was the problem with Manfreds penalties. No one was suspended for a lengthy time.

        1. I don’t believe anyone thought those guys wouldn’t work again. Slap wrist, tell them to go there room and think about what they’ve done, then get back to work. They are on a level that operates on their own by laws. Rose is the only one who didn’t get forgiven. Had he shut up and gone to his room he’d be the Hall by now.

          1. The difference is Bart Giamatti had a spine.

            He was also more thoughtful and saw the larger implications of failing to act – and acted accordingly.

            Manfred just follows the template in modern scandal management; make a minimal punitive gesture (that is negotiated beforehand of course) and just rely on the human tendency to forget in time and move on to other things.

            Manfred is just a CFO thinking of earnings for the next quarter. He took the action that would have the minimum financial repercussions to the game in the short term. Like many executives, leaders and administrators today he is a sniveling coward.

        2. What a weakling Manfred turned out being. As if he needed to place amnesty to players to get the truth out of them. He obviously see’s the job of commissioner as very inert. That is aside of pardoning.

      2. They shouldn’t work in baseball again. Hinch has lost two locker rooms, cheated to a title, lied about it. You can’t tell there isn’t another qualified person who deserves a shot.

  12. There was an amazing story yesterday in pro football. Alex Smith, who has missed two years after a horrific life threatening leg injury, returned to action replacing DC’s starting QB after he was knocked out of the game. Rams won 30-10,

  13. Doc indicated last night that he might very likely start Kike today. I guess Joc isn’t starting against a lefty so that would probably put Kike in left and Pollock at DH.

    Of course Kike has reverse splits this year and they would probably be better off starting Barnes at DH, but that would SEEM crazy so it won’t be done. Or start Barnes at catcher and Smith at DH, another alternative that they wouldn’t do.

  14. Game 2 and Game 3 start at 3pm

    Today for Atl:

    Acuna
    Freeman
    Ozuna
    d’Arnaud
    Albies
    Swanson
    Duvall
    Markakis
    Riley

  15. Right now Id rather have Barnes bat over Kike’s. I never thought I’d ever be lobbying to get Barnes’s bat in the lineup but he has given us some quality ab’s wo striking out unlike Kike

  16. I just checked something out and found it amazing, at least to me. Acuna Jr. has played 10 games against the Dodgers . His BA is .114 and he has 2 homers and 5 RBI’s. 4 of those coming in 2018 off of Buehler.

  17. Today’s Dodger lineup:

    Betts, RF
    Seager, SS
    Turner, 3B
    Muncy, 1B
    Smith, C
    Bellinger, CF
    Pollock, DH
    Hernandez, 2B
    Taylor, LF
    Buehler, P

    1. I have no problem whatsoever with this lineup or defensive alignment. Kike’ is an exceptional defensive 2B, and the last time I checked, contrary to some, defense is still a significant factor in the game of baseball.

  18. I spoke with Mark on the telephone this AM (afternoon for Mark). As most everyone knows, Mark and many of his employees have come down with COVID-19. Mark was hospitalized last night, but he has ensured me that he will fully recover from this virus. His treatment will be dictated how today goes in the hospital. His fever has broken three different times today, so he appears to be on the mend.

    Mark is being treated for COVID-19, but because of the many tests that Mark was administered, the Doctors discovered a 4.5cm aortic aneurysm that will need to be surgically repaired. This was not caused from to the coronavirus, but was discovered because of it. Mark’s is not the first potentially lethal heart condition discovered as a result of COVID-19 testing that I have heard of.

    Mark will be out of action for a bit as he recovers from COVID-19, and then will need surgery to repair the aneurysm. I have ensured Mark that I will continue to manage LA DodgerTalk until he fully recovers. The last thing I want is for him to worry about the site that he has painstakingly developed, and I have always wanted only the best for LADT. So I will stay on until Mark is healthy enough to assume the controls.

    1. Best wishes to Mark on his current and future recovery.

      Thanks Jeff for being willing to stick around. (We will try to be good )

    2. Very best wishes Mark. You’re a strong man and you will beat this and come back fitter than before.

      Hope the Dodgers give you something to be happy about.

  19. Please send our very best wishes for a speedy recovery to Mark, Jeff. We all know he’s too stubborn to let this get the best of him.

    And thanks for sticking around until he gets back. These are tough times and LADT is an important part of keeping my sanity. I imagine others might feel the same.

  20. Nice write up Jeff on the roster comparisons. You did nice work.
    I’m good with Wood and Rios added. Hopefully Rio could at least pinch hit. And Woods for a low leverage inning or 2. Lux and Gore add nothing.
    I would definitely DH Barnes putting both he and Smith in the line up. They both hit left handed pitching and Kike Does not. He has reverse spilts.
    I like the pitching rotation as:
    1. Buehler
    2. CK
    3. Opener / Urias
    4. May
    5. Bullpen game
    6. Buehler on reg rest
    7. CK on reg rest
    I would not use CK at all out of the bullpen
    Gonsolin moves to high leverage spots in the bullpen.
    Sorry to hear about Joe Morgan. He was a big part of the Big Red Machine and a great player. Love that spastic left elbow. RIP
    Very best wishes to MT and his family. Did he get covid19 twice? I didn’t think that was possible.

  21. Oh so sorry to hear that news, AC. Best wishes to Mark for a full and speedy recovery. Thank you for staying on to manage this site. It is very appreciated. Prayers for you both.

  22. Get well soon Mark. We are all pulling for you. Except for dArnaud, none of the Braves are really hitting well this post season. They have 7 homers,. but besides Freeman hitting in the .270’s, most of the others are down around the Mendoza line. Tampa 3, Hou 1 so far.

  23. Horrible news about Mark in one sense but on the other hand, his hospitalization allowed the doctors to find the aneurysm which can be repaired before it kills him, so this could be a real blessing in disguise.

    I will pray for his rapid recovery.

  24. I will be praying for you Mark for a speedy recovery. Don’t know if stressful Dodger post season play is best for you so they better sweep Braves big time to help with your recovery. Please Doc make the right moves for Mark’s health! Thx Jeff for keeping us going in Mark’s absence

  25. If Mark is reading this by any chance, best wishes to you.

    I can’t believe the Dodgers don’t have a better option than Hernandez.

    This is going to be a tougher series to win simply because Doc doesn’t have the luxury of using Gonsolin, May, Urias in relief whenever he wants to use them, because of the 7 games and no days off in between games.

    The key to winning is the same as the series’s before this one. Don’t get in a situation where you turn it over to the regular season bullpen guys (which doesn’t include Gonsolin, May, Urias) and expect them to be perfect or near perfect. Give them some wiggle room, because they are not as good as most people think they are.

  26. Mark, praying for your full recovery.

    TAMPA is getting so lucky and I am loving it! The Asstros are outplaying them but can’t win! Boo hoo!

    Dodgers need to win a critical game one! Let’s go Buehler you owe the Braves!

  27. So sorry to hear about Mark’s medical concerns. I’m sure there are many instances when a person gets the virus it allows for the discovery of life threatening medical issues that otherwise may not have been found. Get well Mark and then have a successful surgery.

    It’s a tough call on the pitching setup after WB and CK. I’m leaning toward May in game 3 and Urias in game 4. I would hold back Gonsolin for late inning relief use. I know he is inexperienced in late inning situations, but I think he has the mental makeup and skills to be successful. Just don’t tell him it’s the playoffs and he’ll be fine.

  28. Well the first mistake came early.

    Pitch count Walker.

    I second all thoughts going Mark’s way. He’s tough. I’m sure he will be back soon.

  29. Mr. Blister is not looking as sharp as he could. The announcers had an interesting comment saying they believed that the blister was caused from not getting enough innings this season. I said in the beginning of the year that this was a season NOT to baby the starters. Let them go all out and get their arms and seasoning in this crazy Covid season. Let’s hope that Mr. Blister steadies and focuses on attacking the batters.

  30. I think Walker is done. 5 BB’s in 4 IP with 84 pitches and Doc most likely not wanting Walker to pitch to the Braves a third time around, he’s most likely finished for the night

  31. I hope Doc goes with Gonsolin or Urias to start the 5th inning clean instead of with runner(s) on base. Unless Doc is absolutely certain Buehler has another inning in him.

    1. Amazingly, Mr. Blister has only given up 1 hit, the HR! 93 pitches after 5IP. It could go either way, but Doc usually pulls a pitcher at this point. I wouldn’t blame him but Buehler looks like he is just getting warmed up.

    2. Good call by Doc staying with Buehler. But he needs to be certain about when Buehler is running out of gas and go with Gonsolin or Urias to start an inning.

  32. Color me shocked that Walker pitched the fifth inning, and while I doubted he would do so, I must give props to Doc for making that decision. Like many of us here I am far too critical of Doc’s decisions especially with hindsight bias, but I must also give him credit for good managerial decisions and that was good.

  33. That was an absolute cookie down the middle that Hernandez hit for a homerun but still good job Hernandez.

  34. This game could be decided by the HR. Neither team seems to be able to get a leg up out of their batters. With May pitching 100+mph, one good swing could be decisive. Braves will go to their relievers. Let’s see what they bring. Looking for that Dodger magic, the HR!

  35. Odd to walk Swanson and then May hits Pablo to load the bases. Rookie LHP Gonzalez coming in to get out of the inning. Pucker time…………..Back to back rookie pitchers and they got it done. Whew. Lets go Blue! Mookie leading us off.

  36. Treinen gives up that HR. My worst fear has come true. Pull him NOW! oops, can’t pull him because of the 3 batter rule.

    1. Roberts late again pulling the pitcher!! Why would you let him face Ozuna? This is where Doc fails us. Always going to his habit of bringing in Treinen instead of letting Victor have an inning or bringing in McGee.

  37. Imagine if we had good Jansen……..he sees the ninth, but Doc has zero confidence in him and had to go with Blake. For a sinker ground ball pitcher I saw a lot of balls get hammered in the air. I will not put this loss on Doc, he pulled all the right strings, but as Mark has routinely said, the players have to come through and they did not (so far but we’ll get to Melancon).

  38. Well, that ought to do it! Glad we let Atlanta know they can play with us. We hit one hanger then nothing. Too bad we wasted so many pitchers and they got no help from the offense. Let’s hope it gets better quick.

  39. Did Treinen just lose his re-signing for next year? $10M reliever. Is he worth it with a 3.86 ERA and 1.21WHIP. We’ve got a lot of arms coming up that he would block.

  40. Feels so much like game #5 of last year’s NLDS. Graterol, May, Gonzalez looked great, but late inning relief pitching absolutely sucked. The Braves Will Smith carves us up in the 8th pitching to our 1,2 and 3 hitters while Treinen and McGee stunk the place up.

    Betts, Seager, Turner, Muncy, Smith, Bellinger and CT3 =2 for 25 AB’s…..looks a lot like prior post season games

  41. ”It’s only one game, It’s ok to be disappointed, but no need to act like this series is anywhere close to over”

  42. As I’ve said many times the Dodgers cannot get in a position that they have to rely on their bullpen to be perfect or near perfect because the bullpen is just not that good.

    During the regular season the bullpen did not have to face good hitting for the most part.

    We haven’t seen Gonsolin at all in the playoffs. He is one of our best pitchers.

    The key to winning is being able to use Gonsolin and Urias in relief for multiple innings. I’m not sure Doc can do that in a seven game series with no days off.

    The one spot on the team that Friedman has not done a good job at is building a good bullpen. He definitely needs to address that.

    1. That is about the most ridiculous thing you have ever posted on here. Their bullpen is not only good, it was much better than the Braves pen was all year. They faced plenty of good hitting teams. Padres have an excellent lineup. The Bullpen won 26 of the Dodgers 43 games. You are totally off base and wrong. The relievers ERA this season was 2.74, lower than the starters 3.02. The pen gave up 24 homers, and the starters gave up 42. The Dodgers had 10 blown saves, 5 of those by pitchers who are not even on the post season roster, 2 by Ferguson, 2 by Alexander, and one by Santana. They haven’t needed Gonsolin. They swept both series. Gonsolin at best is a #4. He will definitely pitch in this series. He has been ramping up for that with his side sessions. This is by FAR< the best bullpen AF has ever put together. You had better go back and check your facts, because when you say crap like this, you only look uninformed and not very baseball savvy.

      1. The way the schedule was during the regular season you cannot compare one team to another team.

        You said the Dodgers bullpen was better than the Braves during the regular season well you can’t compare the two because of the schedules.

        1. That is not true. They both played 60 games. The Braves had to play the Al East, which means Tampa, New York and Toronto, who all made it to the playoffs. if they were so damn good, why did they not win more games? I am comparing the pitching stats. You do that against all of your opponents. Your logic is flawed. You cannot compare because they did not play the same teams? Give me a break. If you are going to make a statement like that, when every single analyst and commentator has said the exact same thing about the Dodger pen, I just do not see where you are getting your info. The stats speak for themselves. The Dodgers had the # 1 pitching STAFF in the majors.

  43. It is what it is. They lose a tough one, but give Atl some credit. They got great pitching and the Dodger hitters never woke up, Betts, 0-4. Seager 1-4 Turner, 1-4, Muncy, 0-3, Smith, 0-4, Bellinger, 0-4, Pollock, 1-3, Kike, 1-3, Taylor, 0-2. 11 strikeouts. Only 2 walks. You had to figure one bad inning was going to cost one of these teams a loss. Anderson-Kershaw tomorrow, CK will have to be at his best. Dodgers need to jump early and often. But it is only one loss. Not like they are down 3-0. Not Roberts fault that Treinen was ineffective either. Other than that, the bullpen was nails. Yes, McGee gave up a homer, but the guy has not pitched the entire post season.

      1. The Bullpen was nails until the 9th. I watched the same game you did. But unfortunately they were not perfect, and if you could actually read you would have noticed I said until Trienen, they got the job done.

  44. Bear is right. It is what it is. That’s the problem. We all saw the same game. It’s only one game but certainly not very encouraging. Can’t take 4out of 6 with that kind of offensive output. We won’t win many games scoring one run.
    Stay strong Mark. My prayers are with you.

    1. You actually believe that this offense will not figure out the Braves pitching? They got out pitched. End of story. Tomorrow is another kid, who has never faced an offense like the Dodgers have. Then another one after that with the same MO. Hey, if they get beat, well y’all can cry and moan all you want. I do not ever panic after one game. They get us down 2-0. maybe then I will be a little worried. 1 game does not a series make.

  45. First, I certainly hope that Mark will be okay before too long.

    As to the game, I do not want to be accused of overreacting, or just being negative. But I felt that this game was not just one game, but very indicative of our problems going forward.. I think that we may be outmatched, in that the Braves have a better bullpen. We already used two potential starters in relief in this game, May and Urias. Our staff will not hold up. The sad truth is that we have had these great regular seasons, but we do not hit top pitching in the playoffs, and we do not have the great closing bullpen. This has happened against Philly with Broxton, St. Louis with various relievers who lost the games late; last year against Washington with Kelly, and of course using Kershaw in relief. Today it was Treinen and McGee who gave up four runs in the ninth. I do not remember us having any kind of rally against Atlanta’s relievers, ours were barely holding on most of the game.

    Once again, and I know it may get tiresome, but it is so crucial; if the Dodgers ownership refuses to go all out for a top closer and set up man, this will keep happening over and over in the postseason. It is not that unsurprising, really. Well, maybe Kershaw will pitch great tomorrow, and we can avoid using the bullpen for more than an inning or two, But with no off days, and Buehler struggling to go even five innings, Atlanta has a major bullpen advantage for us to try to overcome. We’re pitching Gonsolin in game 3, and then May, and then Urias or Wood, and expecting to use lots of relievers, very few of whom can be counted on? If is a very difficult task.

  46. Bear, I don’t believe anything. All I know is what I saw tonight. LIke you said, “tomorrow is another kid”. If he is another “kid” like the one we saw tonight we better be quick learners. And, by the way, I’m not crying and moaning. I’m just commenting on what I saw. I’ve rooted for the Dodgers for over 60 years while living in Northern California and having to listen to all my friends who are Giants fans. I didn’t come to this site to be belittled by a fellow Dodger fan. Loosen up and let me and others have their say and express their opinions.

    1. I apologize for that. I just got fed up with a lot of the crying that goes on here. I have watched the team for over 65 years, so we have a lot in common. Opinions are fine. But making statements with no data to back them up, well, that is something else again. Yes, Anderson is a very good young pitcher, and he has been almost unhittable so far this post season. But, he has not faced these kinds of hitters either. The Dodgers had faced Fried before, and tonight, he was better than they were. I give him and the Braves props for what they did. But, having been a fan as long as I have I have seen this show before. I normally respect everyone’s opinion on here. But sometimes, I read something that is totally false, and I just go for the jugular. This is the same guy who keeps saying defense is not important.

  47. Bear I thought I’d never see the day when you were defending both AF and Roberts! Thing is you are absolutely right! One game a season doesn’t make. All we have to do to win this series is to split the first 2 games. Big advantage Dodgers in games 3,4 and 5. No reason to panic!

    1. Cassidy, I give credit where it is due. I may not like Roberts as a tactical manager, I do think he has made some blunders in the past, and I am not a huge saber metrics guy as you know. But it is hard to argue with success. No, they have not climbed the mountain yet. But I will say, getting down 2-0 is not an option. LA has to hit tomorrow. Often and early.

  48. Many of you are too young to remember the 1st game of the 1959 World Series. Dodgers lost 11-0. That series turned out okay. Braves are good, but Dodgers are better! This best team doesn’t always win. Prayers for Mark.

    1. I remember it well. Big Klu hit two homers for the Sox. Hall of Famer Early Wynn beat Roger Craig. Game 2, Podres beat Shaw, and Sherry saved the game, Neal and Essegian homered. LA won 4-3. Game 3, Big D beat Dick Donovan, Sherry won game 4, Koufax lost game 5 1-0 against Shaw, In game 6 they scored 8 by the 4th inning, Duke Snider hit his final World Series homer, # 11. Moon and Essegian also homered. It was Essegian’s second pinch hit homer of the series. Sox actually outscored the Dodgers by 2 runs, Dodgers had one more hit, and both teams made 4 errors.

  49. Hard watch that one.

    To my untrained eye it appeared that the best pitch to hit in every Atbat thrown by Fried was the first one, and not one Dodger, until Seagar in about the 5th inning, actually had a go. Got behind in the count nearly every time.

    That was a game we deserved to lose.

    1. I have seen worse Watford. I was at a playoff game against Montreal in 81. Fernando started, pitched a really good game but lost to Ray Burris who pitched a complete game shut out. That was painful to watch. Burris was a decent pitcher, but certainly not in Fernando’s class. Burris also pitched game 5 and was lifted in favor of Expos Ace, Steve Rogers. Rogers got the first two outs and then Monday took him deep and the Dodgers won the game and the pennant, 2-1.

    2. They were probably told to run the count up and wear down the pitcher. This was the tactic used last year and it worked, but like you, I don’t like it at all. Makes for boring baseball.

  50. There is no way Mookie goes 0-4 tomorrow. Same for Bellinger. Dodgers got a little wake up. Get ready for a little payback tommorow.

  51. One last thing, I see a lot of guys on here who get down on these players when they do not perform. As fans, that is your right. But how many of you have ever faced a 90 MPH plus fastball? How many of you have ever hit it? I was a pretty good hitter when I was a kid, but no way I could do what they do even when I was young. Another thing, The Dodgers have way more pressure to win this than the Braves do. If they lose, they lost to the best team in the league. if they win, they beat the best team in the league. They are pretty loose over in that Brave dugout. The Dodgers only looked that way when Kike homered. They are very business like, but when they get ahead, they loosen up a lot. It did not look like it was a fun night in that dugout. One other thing, I was really annoyed with that tomahawk chop chant going on. But Arlington is a lot closer to Atlanta than LA>

    1. Bear, I don’t think most young guys face 90+mph and begin whacking it at will. It’s something that I imagine you kind of grow into, get the feel of, and process this information if you are going to be a professional. If you can’t do that, you’re probably not cut out for the big leagues. I remember when I played in Little League, I nearly shit in my pants when I faced a guy who could actually throw with some velocity. I know I didn’t have what it takes to continue.

      The Braves reminded me of the Pads having fun. The Dodger culture doesn’t foster that kind of public comaraderie. We are old school, a bit proper. But we have our jokers and tricksters, too. And, I do agree that this was only one game and there is a lot of baseball left to play. No reason why we can’t sweep the rest of the games, is there?

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