We are on the eve of the one meaningful positive news event thus far for the 2020 MLB season. Even the event has warts as we have reduced the number of draft picks from 40 to 5, but it still lends to something good to look forward to. We have all read and heard what a throw of the dice the draft is, and with 6 picks, how does that bode for the Dodgers?
I knew that players like Corey Seager (2012), Cody Bellinger (2013), Alex Verdugo (2014), Walker Buehler (2015), and Gavin Lux (2016) were high draft picks that seem to have paid off handsomely for the Dodgers. I thought I would go back to Seager’s draft year and look at the top 6 picks and what that has meant for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers got three players in the 2012 draft that have paid dividends, and continue to do so.
#1 – Corey Seager – MLB debut 2015; ROY 2016, 2 time AS and Silver Slugger award
#2 – Paco Rodriguez – MLB debut 2012. Had a good start of his career, until he was included in the Alex Wood trade in 2015.
#5 – Ross Stripling – MLB debut 2016. Consummate team player. Back of the rotation pitcher or long man for LAD. Would be mid rotation for most teams.
The Dodgers draft in 2013 was horrific at the top (Chris Anderson #1, Tom Windle #2, and Brandon Dixon #3). But the Dodgers hit pay dirt with their #4 selection:
#4 – Cody Bellinger – MLB debut 2017 – ROY 2017, MVP 2019, 2 time AS, GG and SS award
#6 – Jacob Rhame – MLB debut 2017 (Mets) – Still on Mets roster
One other selection in that draft was:
#8 – Kyle Farmer – MLB debut 2017 (currently with Reds)
2014 was the final year of Logan White’s input, and currently there are no players in the top 6 remaining with the Dodgers, although the #1 and #2 were instrumental in significant trades.
#1 – Grant Holmes – MLB debut (2020?) – Part of the trade to the A’s for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick
#2 – Alex Verdugo – MLB debut 2017 – Part of the Mookie Betts trade
#6 – Brock Stewart – MLB debut 2016 – Currently without a team.
One very late pick still with the Dodgers is an AC favorite – Caleb Ferguson (#38)
The start of the AF (Billy Gasparino) era began in 2015, and what a start with a future (current) LAD Ace, Walker Buehler. But it did not end there.
#1 – Walker Buehler – MLB debut 2017
#2 – Josh Sborz – MLB debut 2019
#3 – Philip Pfeifer – Braves 40 man
#4 – Willie Calhoun – MLB debut 2017. Part of trade to Texas for Yu Darvish. Part of Texas active roster.
#5 – Brendon Davis – Also part of the trade to Texas for Yu Darvish. AA roster with Texas.
#6 – Edwin Rios – MLB debut – 2019
One other significant draft pick on 2015 was Matt Beaty (#12). Matt also made his MLB debut in 2019.
And now we come to perhaps the Dodgers most important Dodgers draft since 1968. When all is said and done, the 2016 LAD draft very well could exceed 1968 as the best draft in Dodgers history. There are currently 8 players on the LAD 40 man with one on a MLB roster for the Twins and one on the 40 man roster for the Orioles. Five players have made their MLB debut in 2019, three years from date of draft.
#1 – Gavin Lux – MLB debut 2019
#1A – Will Smith – MLB debut 2019
#2 – Mitchell White – 40 man roster – Assigned to AAA
#3 – Dustin May – MLB debut 2019
#4 – DJ Peters – 40 man roster – Assigned to AAA
#5 – Devin Smeltzer – MLB debut with Twins 2019. Traded to Minnesota in Brian Dozier trade
#7 – Luke Raley – 40 man roster – Assigned to AAA – Traded to Minnesota in Brian Dozier trade and returned to LAD with Brusdar Graterol in the Kenta Maeda trade.
#9 – Tony Gonsolin – MLB debut 2019
#14 – Dean Kremer – Orioles 40 man roster – Traded to Baltimore in Manny Machado trade (I hated to see him go)
#33 – Zach McKinstry – 40 man roster – Assigned to AAA (a Harold Uhlman favorite)
From the draft, the Dodgers have multiple players still in the organization, some who have a decent chance to make MLB debuts with LAD (or another team) in the future.
#1B – Jordan Sheffield – AAA
#6 – Errol Robinson – AAA
#13 – Cody Thomas – AAA
#15 – Brayan Morales – A+
#19 – Chris Mathewson – A+
#30 – Ramon Rodriguez – Short Season (Ogden)
#31 – Stevie Berman – AA (a Harold Uhlman favorite)
#38 – Kevin Malisheski – A
There was one other 2016 draft pick that has benefited the Dodgers to some degree. One other player was sent to Texas in the Yu Darvish trade…#11 AJ Alexy.
As positive as 2016 may have been, the 2017 draft has seemingly been a bust thus far. There are a couple that could pay big dividends in the future. The most likely star from this draft is #33, Brett de Geus. Other potentials include #11 Jacob Amaya, and #12 Andre Jackson, and #13 Marshall Kasowski.
2018 and 2019 are still too early to tell. But they do not appear to be on the level of the vaunted 2016 draft.
Dodgers scouting has been relatively good at finding some quality at the top of the draft. So the six selections coming in this week’s draft could very well be instrumental in continuing the overall depth of the Dodger affiliates as a pipeline to LAD. This is a relatively deep draft when it comes to college pitching and High School hitting. Considering the small number of picks this year, many teams could shy away from gambling and drafting High School pitching. While I would not be surprised to see Gasparino select a relatively high floor safe pick with a college pitcher as the #29 overall pick, I still think that they will select a middle infielder with offensive skills as their #1. And because it is all just a big guessing game, there is a current thought being bandied about that teams selecting ahead of them will want that safe pick with middle infielders, leaving potentially elite High School pitchers to be there for the Dodgers to pick from. The current hot name is RHP Jared Jones from La Mirada High School. For what it is worth, 9 recent mock drafts I have reviewed have the Dodgers selecting a college RHP, while one picks a High School RHP, and only one (Kiley McDaniel – ESPN) picks a college SS. So expect the Dodgers to select a RH hitting college OF.
Great to see some real baseball conversation to start the day. I actually think it might not be a bad idea to draft an outfielder. As I believe I mentioned before, Joc and Kike are probably gone after this year, we really don’t know what we’ll get out of Pollock due to potential injuries and age, and we certainly can’t count on re-signing Mookie although we have as good a chance as anyone. CT3 could be gone after next year so we basically have Belli that we can really count on for the next few years. That said, I have faith in Gasparino and friends to at least get a couple of really good players with our 6 choices, not to mention what they might pick up in the $20,000 derby.
I’ll be in front of my tv for the next couple of days just happy there will be something baseball-related that’s actually happening in real time.
right there with you.
I still suffer from the many years where the Dodgers did not have an offense and relied on outstanding pitching. Yes, we had the 50’s teams and we had the 70’s teams that had offense but the 60’s teams and Cora/Izturis teams were painful. So, draft a hitter, please.
With Verdugo already gone and Joc, Betts, and Kike’ free agents after 2020 the Dodgers will need outfielders but this draft won’t help fill that need for a few years.
I enjoyed your Post today Jeff. I wonder how many times a team’s third pick wound up being the best MLB player?
Besides the guys you have listed, they have Reks, Thomas, DJ Peters, Beaty, on the roster. Not much at the AAA level, most of the talent at the position is in the lower minors. And do not forget the guy they almost traded to the Angels with Joc, Andy Pages.
And both of us forgot Pollock.
I am trying to forget him too!
I’m a big Beaty fan but in my opinion if you’re counting on Reks or Thomas or DJ or Beaty to be two of our three outfielders on even a semi-regular basis, we’ll be in trouble
Reks, Beaty, and Raley are the same guy… kinda! I see them as journeymen and utilitymen. In reality, Rios may be the best of the bunch.
DJ Peters is someone I have little confidence in.
Cody Thomas has a chance to be special.
Andy Pages has the tools but is still raw.
This season (or lack of one) will likely impact their development.
The lack of a MiLB season will absolutely have everlasting effects. After the Spring that Cody Thomas had, this could have been a breakout year for him in OKC. Andy Pages will be hurt this year without his continuing development. His raw talent is unquestioned, and he needs what is considered the best development team to help him. His biggest asset this year is his age. He is still a baby at 19. Unfortunately Cody is 25 and is missing one of his prime years. Cody is one of the Poster Boys for who is getting hosed in this MLB/MLBPA squabble.
Not to change the subject, but I will. For those of you who enjoy video of old games, you might trying out this YouTube video of the top of the 1st of the Giants at the Reds in July of 61. You may have to grit it out and just root for the Reds (it won’t help, they lost). This is said to be the last original footage of CBS Game of the Week with Dizzy Dean and Pee Wee Reese. We don’t get to hear the Diz say “he slud into 2nd”., but it’s pretty cool anyway. Hard to believe this is the only remaining piece from them.
By the way, I think I could have hit that Reds pitcher……………………today
https://youtu.be/jDxkdkUFFu8
Dodgers when in Brooklyn, I think it was 55, scored 15 runs in the first against the Reds….
Good memory Bear. I didn’t remember that at all so I googled it. It was actually May 18, 1952 and the Dodgers did score 15 runs in the 1st inning against the Reds. At that time there were 6 records set in that 1st inning:
1. Most runs scored in one inning, 15 (old record 14, by the 1920 Yankees, 1922 Cubs, 1948 Red Sox, 1950 Indians).
2, Most runs scored in first inning, 15 (old record 14, by the 1950 Indians).
3. Most runs scored with two outs, 12 (old record 11, by the 1942 Pirates).
4. Most batters to face pitcher in one inning, 21 (old record 19, by the 1922 Cubs and 1948 Red Sox).
5. Most RBIs in one inning, 15 (old record 14, by the 1948 Red Sox).
6. Most batters to reach base safely in a row, 19.
Reese reached base base 3 times in the 1st inning. Dodgers pitcher Chris Van Cuyk pitched a 5 hit complete game for a 19-1 victory. He also helped his cause by collecting 4 hits of his own. Wow! That must have been some game for Dodgers fans to watch.
Excuse me, the game date was May 21st, 1952.
If the Dodgers could pull a 2016 like draft out of their hat this year for their 6 picks wouldn’t we be happy campers.
In addition to the draft being different because of the limited number of rounds, it’s also going to be odd that once drafted and signed, the prospects will have no place to play.
The Dodgers have been “mocked” to so many different players this year. I initially felt certain that they would draft a college player. Now, I’m not so certain. I could see scenarios wherein they drafted Ed Howard or Jared Jones. Jones is compared to Michael Lorenzon. I’d take that.
So would I.
You cannot pull up the minor league rosters on MLB.com right now. I was going to look into the other players in the lower minors. Most of the pop at the outfield position comes from the left side. As for Reks, Beaty and such being the same guy, well so is Raley and he is still on the 40 man roster. I have a lot of faith in Beaty. May not be the greatest outfielder, but the guy has been pretty consistent, and that is what I look for in a player. As much as I like Joc, until last year, that was not his MO> . Rios has limited range, but a great power bat. If they adopt the DH, he is perfect. Pollock, if healthy, and that is a huge if, is a proven player. Remember, he did have a decent season even missing as many games as he did, and he was very hot down the stretch.
https://www.milb.com/ogden/roster
https://www.milb.com/great-lakes/roster
https://www.milb.com/rancho-cucamonga/roster
https://www.milb.com/tulsa/roster
https://www.milb.com/oklahoma-city/roster
If anyone is interested, above are the rosters for all available LAD affiliates. The rookie level AZL and DSL teams are not available.
Thanks Jeff. I think those were the rosters at the beginning of this spring. No one stands out that much. But Rincon at AA Tulsa could develop some more. He did show decent power in 18, and he is only 22. Kendall has been a total disappointment so far. So has Heredia. No one at AAA save Thomas and Peters seem at all intriguing.
I agree with your assessment. Cody Thomas and DJ Peters are the lone prospects (outside of Andy Pages) who stick out as possible everyday players. The Dodgers have lot of possible #4 and #5 OF. I was really looking forward to following Luis Rodriguez and his start at DSL and probable ascension to AZL. But we are going to need to wait another for that.
These rosters are only place holding spots for players under contract. So much will change once we get MiLB again. Who knows, that may all we get next year.
Lot of faith here too for Beaty, Bear. Also Ferguson.
I read Gurnick’s draft analysis of Dodger needs on MLB.com. But what I took out of that article that was enlightening was Gasparino’s statement that he believes because of the 20 thousand dollar limit, that the best HS players will instead opt for college. Will be interesting to see if that is indeed the case.
There will be a lot of college seniors signing. There could be a lot of college juniors who came out of JC last year also. There will be many non-students who will sign for $20K to pursue their dream. Just not most of them.
You are correct. There will be a lot of quality (elite) HS prospects that will insist on over-slot bonuses to sign, if even drafted in the 3rd-5th round.
IMO there is one Dodgers prospect who is a plus hitter, who needs a position, and the OF (LF) seems perfect. Unfortunately he hits LH but he was arguably the top college hitter last year at North Carolina. I think Michael Busch ends up in LF with the Dodgers.
What Dodger player now on the 40 man would you compare Busch’s fielding to? Do you think he could play an average left field eventually or is he going to be a big question mark no matter where they put him? Of course, there will probably also be the option of DHing him.
There is no question he is not going to be GG anywhere on the field. Like Matt Beaty, his best position is the Batter’s Box. His scouting report indicates that he can be a competent defensive 2B, but that position is filled by multiple far superior options defensively. Just as Max Muncy can learn LF, so can Busch. I think we Dodger fans have been spoiled with good defensive LF in CT3 (especially), Kike’, Joc, and Pollock. Certainly DH is an option.
Beaty has proven himself throughout his career, but Busch is considered a better projected offensive threat. He just needs to show it.
Bums and others have written about the potential dearth in OF prospects, and are hoping the Dodgers, will select an OF in the 1st round. Unfortunately there is very little chance that any of the top OF prospects, college (3) or HS (4), will be available at #29. I have not seen one mock draft where even one of them is available at #29. Even if Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, drops, it will be because he is asking too much to give up his Vanderbilt commitment.
What about the next tier? The only one that has even been considered via mock drafts (and only early on) is LH LSU OF, Daniel Cabrera. He is good, but he is not good enough to give up a top pitching prospect or middle infield prospect. If HS RHP Jared Jones, HS SS Ed Howard, and Daniel Cabrera all are available at #29, Cabrera is #3. One other possibility is Arizona Catcher Austin Wells who could possibly switch to left field, or Ohio State Catcher, Dillon Dingler, who started as a CF. However, Dingler is considered a plus defensive catcher with a plus plus arm so a team that wants catching should pick him up.
There are multiple HS OF prospects who might be available in Round 2 or 3, but they may require an over-slot offer to get him to sign. I am partial to Chase Davis who hails from up here in the Sacramento area (Elk Grove). Davis is committed to Arizona. I selected Chase in my Mock Draft as the supplemental pick after the 2nd round. Texas A&M OF, Zach DeLoach, is also a possibility. De Loach had a monster Cape Cod season last summer.
I cannot see the Dodgers selecting a HS OF in rounds 3-5. There are 10 college OF rated 136 to 200 by Baseball America. The one that intrigues me the most is RHH Tyler Gentry out of Alabama. OF, after the first eight, have lots of questions. OF overall is a weak position. Of the top 200 Baseball America prospect, 30 are OF.
I would think that AF and Gasparino have multiple options for post draft free agents.
Thanks for filling in all that information Jeff. Since it’s always easier to trade for a decent outfielder than a top flight middle infielder or pitcher, you’ve convinced me that we probably won’t be drafting a great outfield prospect tomorrow.
The one outfielder in our system who intrigues me is Pages. Maybe he’s another Yordan Alvarez and Arte Moreno saved us from making that mistake a second time. Alvarez played in the Dominican Summer League in his age 19 season and had one homer in 44 at bats. Pages played there in his age 17 season and had 9 homers in 140 at bats (1 homer every 15.6 at bats). He did even better at Ogden last year at age 18. It’s driving me crazy that we never found out who we would have gotten back from the Angels had that deal gone through. It must have been a very good prospect who is a lot closer to the majors than Pages, considering they were getting Joc, Strip and Pages.
I wonder how many businesses that will open their doors with a 50% capacity requirement will ask their employees to take a cut in pay? On the other hand how many of those employees are making a minimum of $500,000+?
The players need to give a little more. Agreeing to not be paid for games not played is not enough IMHO. I would propose full pay for the first $1M of salary and then 75 to 85% thereafter and play 81 games.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
11m
The MLBPA is making a proposal to MLB for a season of around 89 games with a full prorated share of salary and expanded playoffs, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN. It would bring the sides closer to a potential deal and is ~25 games under the last union offer.
The organizational need is LHP. At least that is what Gurnick said. They are also high on a SS , Ed Howard, a HS player. Also a couple of college RH pitchers, Bobby Miller, and Carmen Mlodzinski.. Gurnick also says they need outfielders.
Drum roll please, for my first pick in the 2020 draft, I select Ed Howard, a very good defensive SS who can hit (maybe).
I believe the Dodgers will not draft for a position, but rather, draft the best player available who projects to be (in the future) the best player available.
Agree. Guys get moved to different positions all the time. Take the best player now. By virtue of being the best team in MLB AND having a top 3 farm system, we don’t have “needs”. Take the best, projectable talent and figure the rest out later!
Agree, but my guess will be Howard.
Seems to me “the best player available” is the obvious thing to do. Why in the world would anyone pass on the best player available? “I’ll take the Corolla. You can have the Mercedes”. Hopefully there’s a Mercedes left that far into the round. Might be one that is still in the shop, but if it’s there I take it. I expect it will possibly be someone I never heard of.
How hard is it. Just pick the next ROY!
Morning guys, great to see LADT alive and kicking, and thanks to Jeff, Harold & Rob for all the stimulating posts.
Been reading every day, but can’t offer a lot, as my knowledge of the great game Is tiny compared to most of you guys.
To be honest, I’ve got a bit of Lockdown Fatigue. Things are really dragging although I’m grateful for the good health of all my family and friends.
Have realised that although I’m Pretty resilient, I need things to look forward to, be it a few beers or a night out, or just to have the ability to unwind by watching some sport on TV or sometimes live.
Been interesting reading all your different takes on all things in the media. I made a conscious decision about a year ago to take most of the “noise” out of my life, to get away from
the things that I cannot control. I am in my car 10-12 hours a day, so was listening to more and more negativity and it was affecting my mood. Now it’s no news, just music all the way, and I’ve got to say it’s worked a treat, much more chilled.
Still get need via my phone, but I control it, and that is the difference.
I think we are a couple of weeks ahead of of the US, and are beginning to unlock slowly.
The BIG difference is that our Premier League (Soccer) recommences next Wednesday, with just over a quarter of the games to play.
From the beginning, where I thought there would be lots of obstacles to overcome, all parties have been very together in trying to make things work.
There was an issue of what to do about the FA’s who’s contracts were all due to expire on June 30th, but all bar one, agreed to sign short term contracts to cover the remaining part of the season, thus putting their future’s in jeopardy should injury occur.
I’ve been pleasantly surprised about the willingness to make it happen.
SKY TV which Own most of the rights to the games have agreed to make every remaining game (93) free to air to people who don’t even subscribe. A nice gesture.
So I’ll have some sport to watch soon, and the PGA begins again tomorrow in Texas, so things are looking up.
Baseball….. what can you say? I’m disappointed but not surprised.
I’m so disappointed as I really thought this was our time, with only the Yankees looking comparable, but not surprised as the players carry so much clout. Fingers crossed for some kind of season.
The death of George Floyd has started the Racial debate once again
In the Uk – with many positive protests taking place, including a large one in my home town. So far they have been peaceful with no looting – much of the momentum would be lost immediately if that were to happen.
Hope everyone is well and keeping their spirits up during this trying time.
Let’s hope we can cheer the Boys on together soon.
Can’t wait to enjoy several bottles of water with you, Wat!!
I don’t think too many people here spend a lot of time on the draft to the point where they know most of the names of the guys who will be drafted in the first couple of rounds, but if you’re into that kind of thing I suggest you go to the spreadsheets compiled by the Future Dodgers website.
There’s enough stuff here to keep you occupied until the draft starts tonight. He really puts a lot of effort into this.
To show you what an easy science the draft is, he has one spreadsheet where he lists predictions for our first round pick from about a dozen different sites and there are almost a dozen different picks. In other words, it’s all just one huge guess.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tuooytw157kjyMeY1ecRDnPq9FTGGWQOwzWSgsQpqN4/edit#gid=882166644