It’s Getting A Little Drafty

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1. Round 1 (#29) – With such a small draft, it is hard to guess where Billy Gasparino will go (I learned my lesson Singing The Blue). While my pick would be Nick Bitsko as a high reward high risk HS RHP, I do not think the Dodgers will go high school in the 1st round. But it will be fun to watch if he drops to #29. Will they go pitcher or middle infielder? There are very few college middle infielders I believe the Dodgers are interested in, but there are multiple pitchers that can be picked in later rounds. If I was to go pitching, Cole Wilcox (RHP Georgia) and Cade Cavalli (RHP Oklahoma)would be my choices, but they will be gone by #29. The pitcher I think the Dodgers may find available and would fit in their blueprint would be power RHP J.T. Ginn (Mississippi St.). Without a full season to evaluate players, the Dodgers have already done their due diligence on him, and he only got better after he turned LAD down in 2018.

   But I do not think the Dodgers will go pitcher in the first round. As I indicated above, I believe the Dodgers will find it safer for a middle infielder with some hit tools. For me that player is Baylor SS, Nick Loftin. That would be followed by Justin Foscue (2B Mississippi St.) and Jordan Westburg (SS Mississippi St.).

   Pick – Nick Loftin – SS Baylor

   Round 2 (#60)– Since I am projecting a middle infielder with hit tools in the first round, I believe a pitcher would be the pick here. In the second round there are no “can’t miss” pitchers, but a lot of good potential with the right development personnel. I still do not believe the Dodgers will go high school here. If these two pitchers fall into #60, I cannot see the Dodgers passing: Bryce Jarvis (RHP – Duke – 2D2’s 1st round pick), CJ Van Eyk (RHP Florida State), and LHP Florida International Logan Allen. I am assuming that none of the three will be available, so my pick is Texas A & M RHP, Christian Roa. Kevin Abel (RHP Oregon State) could also fit here. Position players I think the Dodgers take a look at are (if they fall) are Aaron Sabato (1B North Carolina) and 3B Gage Workman (3B Arizona State). I would not be upset if the Dodgers took Workman here. Sentimental pick would be Clayton Beeter RHP Texas Tech. Pitcher from Texas named Clayton, sounds like Dodgers written all over. He is also a good pitcher that would fit below Bryce Jarvis, CJ Van Eyk, and Logan Allen.

   Pick – Christian Roa – RHP Texas A & M

   Round 2 (#66 – Supplemental from Minnesota) – This is a bonus pick and for me this would be the pick one could gamble high school with. Some top HS players can drop, and the Dodgers may be willing to pay above slot here. I really like 6’ 1” 210 pound LH hitting OF Chase Davis. He has a chance to be special. Potential RF with plus arm (99 MPH from Of at last year’s Perfect Games National Showcase) and a 70 grade bat speed. He has holes, but with the Dodger development team he could work out those problems. Other high school prospect candidates with this pick are Drew Romo (C), Yohandy Morales (SS), Coby Mayo (3B), Carson Tucker (SS), and especially Justin Lange (RHP), if he actually drops this far (very remote). If Lange does drop this far, I doubt the Dodgers will pass on him.

   If they want to play it less risky, any of the players mentioned above for 2nd round. Additional maybes= Texas A & M OF, Zach DeLoach, and Texas RHP, Bryce Elder.

   Pick – Chase Davis – HS OF

   Round 3 (#100) – This is where best pick on the team’s particular board come into play. I do not think the Dodgers will go high school from here on unless it is a top HS pitcher that has dropped. I personally dislike anything Notre Dame, but for me the ideal pick here could be Notre Dame 6’ 7” RHRP Joe Boyle. My favorite position player (not previously identified) here is University of Arkansas catcher, Casey Opitz. Optiz has a lot of offensive shortfall, but his arm and defense is plus. His arm is one of the most accurate scouts have seen. Can the Dodgers development team work more magic with his offense? His floor is a legit MLB backup catcher. Another one to watch is Missouri RHP, Ian Bedell, and Dallas Baptist SS, Jimmy Glowenke.

   Pick – Joe Boyle – RHP Notre Dame

   Round 4 (#130) – The Dodgers have previously gone to San Jacinto North for pitching help with Devin Smeltzer (5th round 2016). For the record, Brandon Montgomery was also selected by LAD from San Jacinto North JC, 26th round. There are two San Jacinto North JC pitchers that could go in the 4th and or 5th rounds: Luke Little (LHP) and Mitchell Parker (LHP). I couldn’t very well tap into a Notre Dame player and ignore USC. I like USC 3B Jamal O’Guinn. Huge raw power. He could be a slower developing big bat. He has a lot to learn. He will probably end up at 1B or LF. Pure relief pitcher candidate who could fit here is Virginia LHP Andrew Abbott. I also like Rice SS Trei Cruz. His bloodlines are impossible to ignore: Grandfather – Jose Cruz Sr., and Father – Jose Cruz Jr. The name Trei comes from Jose Cruz III.

   Pick – Trei Cruz – SS Rice , or Jamal O’Guinn – 3B USC. Okay I am staying with the Trojanover the Owl.

   Round 5 (#159) – I like another San Jacinto JC pitcher: RHP Brandon Birdsell. I would be thrilled if Michigan OF Jesse Franklin is still available with this pick. Another OF pick would be LH hitting Coastal Carolina OF, Parker Chavers. LH Hitting Notre Dame 1B, Niko Kavada. If I am considering another ND player, I have to include another Trojan. I like RHP Kyle Hurt in this spot. Also, RH Hitting Florida St. OF Elijah Cabell. But I am going with another Vanderbilt pitcher, LHP Hugh Fisher.

   Pick – Hugh Fisher – LHP Vanderbilt

2. I find myself currently distracted by other things that are going on in our country, but I do want to acknowledge the work you two put into this. Thanks.

   My pick? I don’t know. A pitcher. Left handed. Maybe one who was passed on because he needs surgery. Seems like a safe bet.

   1. Badger – I can’t much disagree with you. My article was written and submitted last week, at a time when it appeared that our society may be opening up again. I was very cautiously hopeful that games might resume, and that we might have an entertaining diversion from the more serious events of the day. Obviously life in the USA has tilted on its axis even further since then with the protests/looting/riots after George Floyd’s death. Further, the negotiations between the MLB and the Players Union, MLB teams deciding to relase upwards of a 1000 minor league players, and the “optics” created by those negotiations and actions couldn’t possibly have come at a worse time.

      But alas, this is a Dodger blog, and I’m committed to helping Jeff, however I can, in keeping this blog alive. And, so I write about Dodger related matters that I hope readers might find interesting or enjoyable to provide them with a bit of a distraction from the more serious matters of life.

      With the games not being played the subject matter options are not exhaustive. That said, frankly, I can see different scenarios, if the current unrest escalates, where the MLB draft is not held at all. As Bob Dylan wrote so many years ago “The Times They are a Changing.”

      1. And you did a superb job 2d2.

         I do understand and respect what this blog is intended to do. Someday hopefully we will have baseball to talk about. In the mean time I want you to know I appreciate your work.

         1. Thank you Badger. That means alot. I value you as a commenter and a person.

            1. You’re welcome, and thank you.

               This place remains the superior read it is because of you writers. It is obvious to me that all you guys do your homework and care about what it is you present. Keep up the good work.

            2. No Badger. This site is superior because of fans like you who make it interesting to come and interact. We thank you Badger, and EVERYONE else who contributes.

3. Thanks for the work. I will come back once baseball starts. I am a little upset with the players right now. I do think the players on the low end of the salary should get a better deal than the the players on the top end of the salary. I am thinking the players are not thinking of the fans.

4. Amazing research by you gents! The only way I could tell you who I’d select and why is if I drew names out of a box. This isn’t like college hoops or football.

   But I’ll agree with Badger. We’ll take a dude who slipped down in the draft due to sign-ability issues or injury issues. And we’ll likely hit big with him and he’ll be a top 10 Dodger prospect by November.

   But what I do predict is that after 5 rounds, Friedman and Friends will think they’re fishing in a barrel. We’re gona sign a ton of talent at $20k each. What a crazy world.

5. Awesome work Rob and Jeff!

   This is a draft Andrew Friedman has only dreamed about.

   I look forward to getting an answer this week as to when the season starts. In the meantime, our country is in a sad state, in part to the political and media-induced pandemic. I think that in a year or two we will look back and realize what a hoax this was.

   I try and keep up with what is happening and am always looking at different opinions. If you are up for it read this:

   https://www.theepochtimes.com/with-pandemic-societal-hallucination-yields-real-misery_3354312.html?fbclid=IwAR3Pl87CQUEvOzj_9rPtNOoygS4oGBpA8gwGTdxxPqbz5HoFeGTaahmZ1cw

   1. Hoax? The Epoch Times?

      Yoiks.

   2. Hoax?? Media-induced pandemic?? Tell that to the 100,000+ families who have lost a love one.

      1. If you believe that is a true number…

         1. Couple of things:

            1. Think the death count is high? Look at your states death count year by year for the past few years. While you will see some variability, the numbers are within a certain range. Now look at your star for this year. Unless your in a state like Montana, you will see a big increase. That number is mainly due to Covid-19.

            Health officials all say the death count is an undercount.

            2. Mark didn’t you say you will not sign up for season tickets for the Pacers next season. If this is all a hoax why the reluctance to sit in an enclosed stadium with screaming fans? My guess is because it would be taking an unnecessary risk.

            3. If this is all a hoax, somehow the entire world is in on this? Why? For what end?

            2D2; nice write up.

            1. Well said MP.

            2. I believe that it is serious, but the politicians and the media have perpetuated the hoax:

               1. If the cause of death is listed as COVID-19, the hospital gets 2.5 times the money than any other cause. If you think they are not taking advantage of that, you are dumber than a bag of hammers.

               2. Heart attack and cancer deaths are down 60%. Really? No, not really! Use your head for more than a hat rack!

               3. In 1968 100,000 Americana died of the Hong Kong Flu (probably more, but there was no financial incentive to overreport it) when the population was 200 Million. They did not shut down the economy. Now, we have 330 Million people and we have lost 100,000 people and we shut down the economy? Grow a brain!

               4. Now we are being told that the virus is not nearly are virulent as was told before. It does not survive on surfaces and in the air nearly as much as we were told. Not even close!

               5. I will renew my Pacer tickets. There is so much BS out there, but you can sort it out if you use discernment. I think for myself. Many of these journalists are full of $hit!

               Personally, I know dozens… actually more than that… of people who test positive for the antibodies. They have had it an survived … just like me.

               I stand by it. This is media and politics driven.

               Wehave been lied to!

            3. Ok Mark

               Hospitals over charging, another conspiracy theory:

               https://local12.com/news/local/fact-check-are-hospitals-overreporting-covid-19-cases-to-get-paid-more-cincinnati

               Yes the Hong Kong flu killed 100,000. We have 100,000 with social distancing and mask wearing. You can not compare the the two.

               The virus DOES survive on surfaces. Main form of transmission is via the air. That is the best way to get the virus by far BUT you can still get it from surfaces. The media misreported a change of wording by the CDC.

               Heart attacks down; read this:

               https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doctors-hospitals-emergency-care-heart-attack-stroke.html

               Cancer deaths down; this trend has been going on for years and noted BEFORE Covid-19.

               Look at the facts Mark. Clearly statistics are not your strong point

            4. Mark,

               Had written a response to some of your claims but I guess I forgot to save my last edit so it didn’t post. In any case your making several factual errors in your statement. No need to re-write what I tried to post as I’m sure this issue will resurface.

         2. Does it matter if the right number is within + or – 20%? It’s still big.

6. Good work 2D2, thank you. I have no idea who to choose in the draft and will leave it up to those more knowledgeable than I. I will support and root for whomever the Dodgers pick.

   I hope this is not a dumb question, but, if the minor leaguers will not have a season this year, do you think the college players would opt to stay in college another year, if possible.

   1. DBM, the short answer is yes. Most will not have a choice as they will not get drafted, and their bonus will be limited to $20,000. For those who are students, a college education and degree are worth more than $20,000. The bonuses for the top players will be there, but probably not in the $8MM range that Adley Rutschman got last year. There will be some who will sign for $20,000 and a chance.

   2. DBM – in light of the recent announcement that 1000 or so minor league players are being released and that some teams, such as the Oakland As will stop paying their minor leaguers their meager $400.00 per month stipend, I definitely think that more students will opt to complete their education. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to forego a degree for the opportunity to get jerked around in the minor leagues.

      1. Thank you AC and 2D2. Good points.

7. Nicely done Jeff, if still available when the Dodgers pick at #29 I would like to see them try again on J.T. Ginn.

   1. I believe he will get strong consideration if he is there. Ginn was my original choice as My Selection for #1. Gasparino’s crew has thoroughly vetted him, and they do not shy from those with TJ surgery. But with the limited number of college SS available a the end of the first round, I fell back to thinking that they would take a middle infielder with some offensive skills and find pitching later.

      I am starting to see more interest in Ginn from teams selecting before the Dodgers. Some teams like NYY are not afraid of selecting a pitcher with TJ surgery in their resume. Ginn’s floor seems to be that of an elite late inning reliever. His ceiling is probably a #3 stalwart in the rotation. Maybe a #2 for most teams.

      It appears that the connected journalists might be changing their thinking that the Dodgers may go high school. Baseball America’s latest mock draft has LAD taking Ed Howard (HS SS) over Nick Loftin and Jordan Westburg. Keith Law ‘s most recent mock draft has LAD drafting HS RHP Justin Lange. There are many who believe that Ed Howard is a potentially elite defensive SS who can make all of the plays. He may not have the pop that Gavin Lux has, but he does have legit offensive skills that perhaps the LAD development team can exploit. The Dodgers are perhaps the hardest team to read going into the draft.

8. I have no clue who any of these guys are. But there has been no college baseball being played. So I looked in my Sporting News 2020 baseball book, and some of the players mentioned are in there. To tell the truth, I have never been a big watcher of the baseball draft. College ball gets much less attention than the football program, and the baseball draft is usually held when the season is on, so my focus has always been on the games. I do keep up with who they draft on the website. A few years ago when AF and the crew drafted Buehler, I could not understand why they drafted a guy who was going to have TJ surgery. Well, they were right it seems. The Dodgers have been blessed with some pretty smart cookies in that draft room. I do think they made a huge mistake when they let Logan White get away. You guys are doing a great job keeping the site afloat. Thank you for that.

   1. Logan White was a friend of mine, but Friedman believes in total collaboration in the draft, and Logan wanted more autonomy in the draft. Friedman would not do that. I wish he were still with the Dodgers, but ultimately, he does not have more autonomy with the Padres… in fact, he has less. He is now an advisor to AJ Preller. I think he would have been a big asset to this current front office, but he followed his heart and has nothing but praise for the Dodgers front office. San Diego has done very well in their drafts since he has been there. What role he has played is not clear, but I am sure he has had a big role there.

      I miss our chats! Logan is as real as they come.

      1. I still think it was a mistake. And maybe Logan wanted more control. But based on his track record, I think he deserved some say in the final choice. He did a lot on a limited budget, and he sure as heck did not sign so many Cubans to bad contracts like AF’s boys did. Matter of perspective I guess. SD has made some really good picks. But remember also they are up towards the top of the board every year now.

         1. He signed Puig! He thought Yasiel was going to be a legend.

            He was right! 😉

            1. I happen to like Puig, and at least he contributed some good moments at the major league level. Had he been more dedicated to getting better and more receptive to what the coaches had to offer, his time as a Dodger would have been a lot different and they might not have traded him. I totally admit he was one of the more frustrating players to watch. But he was also one of the most exciting players to put on that uniform in the last 20 years.,

9. This!! If these 2 idiotic sides can’t come to an agreement and there’s no baseball in 2020 because of it, I will be cancelling my season tickets. I won’t support greed like this

   https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29241941/future-mlb-not-just-2020-season-stake

   1. Do not blame you Bobby. I myself have never been in a bracket where I could afford season seats. But seeing the cost of going to games is sky high anyway, I would not be attending many.

   2. I think they will get together THIS year, but I fear that NEXt year will be the BIG Kahuna!

      They can talk about how the value of teams have increased, but here’s the bigger question:

      Who is going to buy them?

      They may be worth that on paper, but not many have that kind of money.

      Baseball is in for a BIG CORRETION!

10. Great post 2d2. Thanks for all the work you put into researching it.
    A few thoughts:
    1) Mock drafts are like throwing darts blindfolded. For example Keith Law has us taking Swiney at #29 and MLB Draft has us grabbing him with #66. That’s a big difference, which just shows everyone is taking wild guesses, especially after the top 10.
    2) Only being able to sign for $20,000 if not drafted will definitely force a lot of kids back to school in the hopes that they will be drafted and get more money next year. The problem lies with college seniors who really have nowhere to go for the next year. They’ll be the ones most hurt by this and many will have to sign for much less than they are worth.
    3) I would like to see us get a really good outfield prospect in the top three rounds. I know many experts have us going for a shortstop and, of course, we always love pitching, but consider this: After 2020, we won’t have Joc, probably won’t have Kike, might not have Mookie, Pollock is getting older every year and Taylor will quite possibly be gone after 2021. I do not expect Peters or Thomas or Raley to have exemplary MLB careers. That leaves us with Belli in the outfield. Maybe I’ve forgotten someone, but even if we retain Mookie I think we need a really good outfield prospect this year.

11. Draft predictions are fun to do, but beyond the first 3 to 5 players picked it is a crapshoot.

    Mike Trout was drafted #25.

    Cody Bellinger was drafted #142.

    Mookie Betts was #172.

    Mike Piazza was 1,390.

    Go figure!

12. Bobby,

    Don’t take all of this negotiation seriously.

    Both sides are just posturing. All for effect….

    1. Sorry, didn’t intend this to be a response to anyone, just a question/comment.
       I wonder why anyone who has an option to play somewhere this year, and I am including the next college season, would be willing to sign a contract that is not for a life-changing amount of money.
       There isn’t going to be a place for them to play, right? At least, not a place to play competitively. So, wouldn’t that dramatically affect your chances of development. None of the players who will be drafted have any chance of playing with the big club this year, and it is unlikely that there will be any MiLB played.
       Just keep your options open and find some place to play and get better.
       I may be the proverbial “bag of hammers,” but I have been trying to find the benefit and can’t.

13. Wow… Good stuff about the draft from most everyone…I’ll be following our drafted players as usual…
    And the there’s the elephant in the room… Chosen One… You took a perfectly wonderful and xlnt researched post and tried to sabotage it… Maybe I didn’t consider that most of the folks came from s___hole countries… Charlottesville there’s good folks on both sides..
    Whats a 100K – 80K??? Just human beings fooled into dying for a make believe pandemic ….
    Like the last 3+ years an utter joke…
    United We Stand
    Divided

14. Calling death a hoax clearly lies in foul territory. Remedy: Take two Hydroxymorons and call me in the morning.

    2d2–Gold star for you.

15. Taken from Jeff’s comment above–Ed Howard is a potentially elite defensive SS who can make all of the plays. He may not have the pop that Gavin Lux has, but he does have legit offensive skills that perhaps the LAD development team can exploit.

    Howard intrigues me. Hopefully a righty hitter.

16. I hate it when I agree with Timmons, but Dude, you are so correct on the things you have stated above. Truth hurts.

17. Players counter proposal has a 114 game season starting on the 30th of June and ending on Halloween. Not sure about the financial side of their proposal. They do want 100 million up front. Players can opt out of playing this season, not sure how that works either. Some Dodger players are working out at Dodger Stadium.

18. 2D2 and Jeff -great synopsis. I love the draft but trying to figure out who might be selected is more than a challenge for me. McGinn was the one I really wondered about. It just seems he should be a Dodger, in the Walker Buehler mould, not the Luke Hochevar mould.

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