I have no idea if there is going to be baseball in 2020 or not, but I am well past tired of waiting. We have had short seasons in the past and we have all come back to continue to watch and cheer. Other than with WWI when seasons were cut to 126-128 games in 1917 (from 154 games) and 140 games in 1918, all other shortened seasons were resultant from labor strife. Even WWII did not result in less games played.
The first two weeks in 1972 were cut and never made up because of a labor dispute regarding increasing pension payouts due to inflation. After two weeks, the players prevailed and the season started, but those 13 days were not made up. The season simply started on April 15, 1972 and played out with the pre-existing schedule resulting in an unequal number of games played by all teams. The AL East was won by the Tigers with an 86-70 record, beating the Red Sox with a record of 85-70 by a half game. The Tigers won the Division because they played one more game than did the Red Sox. Alas, the Tigers could not beat the eventual WS champion A’s in the ALCS.
In 1981, the players staged a walk out on June 11 due to the owners insistence that a team losing a player to free agency receive a compensation draft pick from the signing team and a player off the roster of the signing team. Players said NO, and walked out. The season did not restart until August 10. The season was split into to two halves; pre- strike and post-strike. The Division winners of each half would face each other in a Divisional Series to determine who would play in the League Championship Series, and eventually moving on to the World Series.
This approach resulted in a very positive outcome for us LAD fans, as the first half winning LAD beat the second half champion Astros in a very thrilling 5-game series. LAD then went on to beat the Expos in another exciting 5-game LCS and the hated Yankees in a 6-game Word Series. What many may not remember is that the team with the best overall record in 1981 did not even make the playoffs. The Cincinnati Reds’ overall record was 66-42. They were beat by LAD in the 1st half by .5 game, as the Dodgers played one more game than the Reds and won. In the 2nd half, the Astros also played one more game than did the Reds, but won by 1.5 games over the Reds. The Reds with the best overall record did not make the playoffs because of their 2nd place standing in each half.
Before anybody gets sanctimonious over how the 2020 WS championship team will be received, there is a not one true LAD fan that will look back on 1981 with an asterisk. Maybe Reds fans will, but not LAD fans.
In 1985, there was a 2-game player walkout but resulted in no games lost.
In 1990, there was a one week owner lockout to open the season, but the games were made up, including a 3 day extension to the end of the season.
Then of course there was the worst of all previous seasons…1994-1995. The 1994 season ended with a player strike commencing on August 11 and lasted throughout the remainder in the season, and for the first time since 1904, there was no World Series.
After the owners lost in litigation, the strike ended on April 2, 1995. The 1995 season started three weeks later (April 25) with a shortened 144 game season. The Dodgers did go on to win the NL West by one game over the Colorado Rockies, but were shut out 3 games to none to the Reds in the NLDS. Even though it was a shortened season, the Atlanta Braves are not going to throw it out, as it was their lone WS Championship in their long 14 year Division Championship reign.
With this pandemic in full force, we are all very aware that the beginning of the 2020 MLB Season is not going to be played and will not be made up. IF (BIG IF) there is going to be a 2020 season, it will not be a 162 game schedule. Per Ken Rosenthal, top industry leaders are confident that games will be played in 2020, but in what format? MLB officials continue to brainstorm various scenarios, trying to come up with a plan that MLBPA will agree to. There has been a plan discussed to have teams play in their Cactus/Grapefruit League stadiums in a reformatted Division/League makeup. The players would be quarantined. This scenario did not get much traction as the more established players said they would not be quarantined away from the families for four months. The most prominent figure for LAD fans is Clayton Kershaw who said he would absolutely NOT play under those conditions. Kershaw is quoted as saying about the “Arizona Plan”…
”…”Well I have two thoughts. One is I think it’s great we’re trying to figure something out…I will say that that situation that was played out, I don’t know who wrote the article or where it came from…I just don’t see that happening. I’m not going to be away from my family and not see them for four months. I just talked about how much Cooper (his newborn son) changes over one week, so to miss four months of his life right now, I’m just not gonna do it.”
Kershaw was not alone. Is everybody ready for Replacement Player Part Deaux”?
The Arizona/Florida plan has increased to include a third state hub…Texas.
Before anyone gets excited about any new plan, we need to see it rolled out to MLBPA. There are already tensions between MLB and MLBPA, and the players are not going to continue to have their salaries evaporated at the expense of owner TV money rolling in. Revenues will continue to take a hit as there are no current scenarios where stadiums will be open for attendance…thus, no gate receipts (or parking or concessions). Empty stadiums may not matter to teams like Miami, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, or Oakland, as it will seem like any other year. But for teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, empty stadiums will have a deafening effect. The “have not” teams need the TV revenue, so there will be a battle of owners, even before the ensuing battle between MLB and MLBPA.
The newest optimism for a potential 2020 MLB season is a result of a number of states considering lifting their shelter-in plans. Current discussions center on 10 to 12 states and 20 home parks. Perhaps a hybrid of starting with the 3-hub scenario for 5-week quick start, and later expanded to multiple home stadiums. Discussions are wide-spread and fluid.
The most optimistic of plans consider July 4 as a potential start date and would run through October. Hmmmm…July 4 start date. How American and Apple Pie is that? Okay and Dodger Dogs. This would allow for an 80-100 game schedule which would be even less than the 1981 season. Under this plan, the post season would be played at neutral sites with a WS in late November/early December. TV networks are already preparing for no College Football for 2020, so a November/December MLB playoff will be well received by those sports networks.
While many fans are reluctant to watch baseball without fans at the stadiums, they will still watch as it is still baseball. However there are many larger revenue teams that will be reluctant to play under those conditions, as it is widely considered that many large revenue teams draw half of their revenue base from game-day ticket, parking, merchandise, and concession sales. Without getting some additional relief from player salaries, these teams will be very reluctant to open up operations. So it will remain a classic management/labor dispute. Much has to be discussed and agreed to BEFORE games will be played. It is HIGHLY unlikely that fans will be allowed in any California stadiums for 2020. Most government officials have all but ruled out largely attended sports and concert gatherings until January 1, 2021 at the earliest. That may change, but not in the affected cities where mayors have gone on record proclaiming no events until at least, January 1, 2020.
Even if there are games, operational decisions will still need to be made. For those teams with shelter-in restrictions lifted, will they be able to gather at their home stadiums to work out? Many seem optimistic about that. Or will all teams be mandated to report to their ST sites for workouts and an abbreviated ST season? The most discussed scenario has a three-week ST season rather than six. But that will not be enough time to get pitchers ready; especially starting pitchers. Does the roster expand to allow for more pitchers? For the whole season? Will they allow for more pitchers for expected double-headers that will be needed to reach the required game level? Will there be a change in the rules to allow for starting pitchers to get a win if they complete four innings instead of five? Three innings? Team wins are important to us fans, but wins sure do count in contract/arbitration negotiations. Is there a minimum number of games MLB and MLBPA will consider for a season?
Today is May 1. With an extremely optimistic season start date of July 4, teams could report on June 4, begin ST games on June 11, end ST on July 2…travel July 3 and Start the season July 4. That is 5 weeks to get things rolling, plans identified, negotiated, and agreed to. Optimistic? Sure. Possible? Again, yes. Probable? I am not so sure. But I am hopeful.
Finally, before I end this inaugural post to the New LADT, I was reminded this past week, that 14 years ago on April 28, 2006, Steve Howe was killed in a single auto crash on I-10 in Coachella, CA. His car rolled, and Steve was not wearing a seat belt. He was 48. Steve was a troubled soul, but he will always be remembered by me as being one of the best when he was at his best (sober?). Steve Howe will always be one of my favorites. I do not turn my back on people in trouble but try to reach out and help. I was not in a position to help Howe, but I did pray for him and continue to do so. Continue to RIP, Steve Howe – March 10, 1958 to April 28, 2006.
Great start and thank you. There will be a season, Duke Snider told me so!
I agree that July 4th would be the perfect day to start the baseball season, but as you’ve pointed out there are huge hurdles before that can happen.
As I’ve asked before, once things get rolling, what happens if a player tests positive? So that leaves two major questions: When does the season start and can it finish uninterrupted?
Lastly, how will tremendously reduced revenues for teams this year (the big spenders in particular) affect the free agent market this winter?
Stay tuned. There will be lots of twists and turns before this is done.
Well said Singing The Blue. (that’s a long name. I’m gonna ask that I be allowed to shorten it)
I’m both hopeful and doubtful, which more or less defines conflicted. As the numbers continue to rise, will the players agree to a July start, and exactly how will MLB structure this season? I still see Cactus and Grapefruit. At least that way players can be with their families. World Series? They will have to construct that bridge, and attempt a crossing, later.
STB works for me if it works for you.
You’ve called me lots of names in the past. Pick your favorite.
Just don’t use Jeff or Jeff D. since they’re already taken on this site.
Jefe isn’t taken.
STB works.
So, to July or not 2 July, that is the question. Got an opinion STB?
Jefe is fine also, but it’s probably a title I don’t deserve.
July 4th is just too good to pass up if they can possibly do it.
Here are my guesses at the various odds:
Odds there is some sort of MLB season this year – 65%
Odds the season is completed uninterrupted once it starts – 40%
Odds the season starts by July 4th – 50%
As you can see, I’m thinking all of this could easily go either way.
Thanks Jeff for a very informative article on all the ifs, ands & buts of attempting to get a season in this year. It will certainly require a lot of planning and negotiating. It sounds like a tough assignment to get everything to fall in place, but I sure hope that it happens.
Pardon my ignorance, but might there be a MiLB season this year? I’m sure that they have different problems than MLB. If they don’t have a season, where would MLB get replacements for injured players and what would happen to all of the minor league players?
What I’m hearing from friends in the Angels org is that it’s highly unlikely that there will be a minor league season. But nothing is official. MiLB relies heavily on tickets, parking and concessions for revenue (besides their contracts with their affiliates). They don’t have TV deals like MLB teams. Playing MiLB games in an empty stadiums would only widen the losses for teams. And I have no doubt there are teams on the edge of bankruptcy as it currently stands.
What I’ve heard proposed from several reliable media outlets is that there may be something along the lines of an extended spring training or developmental league for minor league players, played in spring training facilities.
I would assume MLB teams would play with expanded rosters (more than 26) to give them the opportunity to get some of their upper level minor league players some playing time.
It’s all conjecture and rumors at this point. But I would be very surprised if there is a minor league season, in any traditional sense.
Thank you Jayne.
It’s a gloomy “June gloom” sort of morning here in Southern California. Despite the cloud cover, my morning has been made so much brighter by reading your post this morning Jeff! I miss baseball, and I have definitely missed my daily dose of LADT! Thank you so much for taking this on and bringing me (and others too) some daily happiness!
I’m hoping for some recovery of the 2020 baseball season. But I have to admit, I doubt that it will happen, unless the Players Association and MLB agree to some form of the Arizona/Florida leagues that have been discussed. There is no chance that either Newsom or Garcetti, or the governors and mayors of the more populated states and cities will allow sporting events to be played in their states or cities this year.
Not just Newsom and Garcetti. Mayors London Breed (SF), Libby Schaaf (Oakland), and Kevin Falconer (SD) are all on record of saying that large stadium venues will not open this calendar year for the general public. I have no knowledge as to where Mayor Harry Sidhu (Anaheim) stands, but since Disneyland is shut down until at least January 1, it is hard to imagine that Anaheim will allow fans into Anaheim Stadium and not Disneyland, even with a far lesser attendance. As you said, Gavin Newsom has stated his office is not going to allow for these stadiums to operate with fans, and it is doubtful that any of the aforementioned mayors are going to go against the Governor, even if the Governor’s office defers to the municipality and their own re-opening schedule as has been suggested.
I think your last sentence sums it up for me d2. I just don’t see it happening this summer.
I have no idea what will happen, just wait and see.
Good morning, AC, or afternoon. Thank you for the usual interesting article you wrote. I agree with you about the strain on starting pitchers and the bullpen if too many double headers are played. Can you tell me if there is any chance minor league baseball will have a late starting or abbreviated season?
I wish I knew. There is no discussion of MiLB starting anytime soon. I do not see it starting before the MLB situation is resolved, but MiLB is used to playing in empty to near empty stadiums, so why not? There may be more of a need for AAA players at the MLB level if rosters are expanded. If AZ and FL spring training sites are used for MLB games, there is no place for their respective Rookie Leagues to play. MiLB rookie league players could still play on the back fields, but would that be considered too many people in a semi-confined space? Maybe they do more of extended ST for MiLB and let them develop rather than play a regular championship season.
Thank you AC. I wonder if the elimination of minor league teams has been put on hold for right now and the raises for minor league players also. I could see a need for minor league pitchers to bolster up a team’s roster.
Per Ken Rosenthal and The Athletic, not only are there problematic ongoing discussions between MLB and MLBPA, but after receiving MLB’s “best and final” offer for a 2020 season, the MLB Umpires Association has voted to send the League a “hold letter” postponing a vote by the Umpires for accepting or declining the League’s offer. There are some significant financial cuts the umpires are being asked to make, and they recognize that their image with the fans is not well received. Thus if they reject the offer, the upheaval will not nearly be at the same level as it would be for the players if they reject MLB’s financial allocation of revenues.
Per Bob Nightengale, below is something MLB is considering.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/04/28/mlb-optimistic-about-starting-season-late-june/3039275001/
Dodgers and Houston in the same division? What could go wrong?
One thing we need to remember…MLB is nowhere close to recommending that baseball being played in front of fans, only that they be able to play in empty stadiums in their cities. That scenario has not be shot down by city mayors just yet.
We will learn a lot by what happens when KBO starts regular season games on May 5. The Taiwanese League has been playing since April 11, and people are turning in to watch. NASCAR will reopen in Darlington on May 17 with no fans. PGA will reopen with the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas on June 11, also without fans. A new MLS re-start date has been temporarily set for June 8, and they are not planning on reducing their 34 game schedule. The NFL draft had its largest viewing audience by far this past weekend. People are starved for sports.
By the way, a big thank you to Mushers Pop for the tip on Taiwanese Baseball. Below is some more information on what they are doing.
https://time.com/5822240/watch-taiwan-baseball-live-free/
😉
Why in the world would restarting MLB even be considered unless we can assure the safety of all parties involved? I love baseball, but it is not an essential industry and to say that it is would be as asinine as the state of Florida declaring Professional Wrestling to be an essential industry. I can’t believe how political some of these decisions are and how the concern for the wealthy is more important than the concern for the general public.
“I can’t believe how political some of these decisions are and how the concern for the wealthy is more important than the concern for the general public.”
I can believe it.
Your point is well made Denny. Baseball isn’t essential, unless of course you are a baseball fan, which is like 90% of everybody. I want baseball back as much as anyone, but I hope they don’t rush this. That said, if they can get away with it you know they will.
There is an economic argument to starting baseball in mid-summer, even if no fans are physically present at games. Many Americans are already suffering from the economic effects of the pandemic, and many more will, unless we find ways to get the economy moving. There is also a psychological argument to resuming baseball. The restrictions on our lives are likely to continue far longer than most people realize. There may be several waves of the pandemic, with loosening of restrictions and relaxing of them occurring multiple times. This will be a real challenge for our emotional health and well being. It is already taking a toll, and we are just two months into this. Baseball could be a welcome relief at a time we need it,, and pump necessary revenue into the economy. The question is how to do it safely. In essence, the teams and their personnel (e.g., coaches, trainers, etc,) would need to observe a strict form of quarantine, with little or no contact with anyone outside of their world. They would need regular testing to insure that contagion didn’t spread if someone got infected. And players like Kershaw who didn’t want to participate would need to be allowed to opt-out. I think that many players would choose to participate. They’re probably going nuts at home. And many minor leaguers would jump at the chance to become replacement players for those who opted-out, or (God-forbid) became infected. The owners and players should make financial compromises to make this happen. After all, many of us are already taking a financial hit from this terrible situation. They should share the burden, too. It’s in the public interest. We will all need to make sacrifices. And we all love baseball, so let’s find a way to bring it back!
Strong argument David.
I agree that baseball would be a welcome relief. I don’t know how they pull it off but like all fans I wait for any announcement they might bring forth. Whatever it is it’s not happening for 2 more months. What is this world going to look like in 2 months? Stand by.
Great to see the site up and running again! Really missed it while it was down.