Progress is not Linear!

Posted By on February 23, 2020

While you can’t place a lot of stock in preseason games… especially the first one, you can see that the Boys in Blue are motivated and eager to get this show on the road. This team as constructed is good enough to win the World Series, but you have to play the games to decide that. Some players will continue to grow, some will regress and some will stay the same. Progress is not linear. He’s what I wonder about who played yesterday:

  1. Max Muncy is a guy who will never be satisfied. He wants to get better and I believe he will. Progress is not linear!
  2. We all think (me included) that Kike Hernandez is a super-sub, especially after his failure to hold on to the second base job last year. It’s no secret that Kike has prodigious power, but he just can’t seem to put it all together. I have predicted great things for him… only to see my prophecies fail to come true. This year, I did not predict anything but don’t be surprised if Kike messes all our plans up and wins the 2B job. Progress is not linear!
  3. Which brings me to Gavin Lux. Is this the year he becomes the NL ROY… or could it be he has to get another year of seasoning. Progress is not linear!
  4. It seems to me that if Clayton Kershaw and his catcher had better signs, he might be Mr. October. It’s taken a long time to figure that out. I think the sign-stealing started with the Cardinals. Progress is not linear!
  5. Marshall Kasowski has to develop another pitch and its not that droopy curve. He needs a sinker or slider and he will keep working on it. Progress is not linear!
  6. Dennis Santana just needs a chance… and he’s getting it. After failing as a starter, he’s likely a solid piece in the bullpen. He looked bad last year until then end in the pen. Progress is not linear!
  7. After two years that were less productive than his rookie year, what if Chris Taylor comes back to his rookie level? Progress is not linear!
  8. Cody Bellinger had a great first season, then suffered through a Sophmore season where he was ultimately platooned. Will he grow again or regress? Progress is not linear!
  9. Corey Seager is healthy after missing a full season. Will he settle in as one of the top hitters in baseball or be a free-swinging journeyman? Progress is not linear!
  10. Can Matt Beaty continue to grow his hit tool and also play a credible defense at 3B? Right about now, he looks to be the caddy of Justin Turner and the fact that he is LH makes it all the more appealing. Progress is not linear!
  11. Will Will Smith and Austin Barnes hit? That’s a valid question or will Keibert Ruiz and/or Rocky Gale be forced into service? We don’t know. Progress is not linear!
  12. Does anyone believe Terrence Gore will actually make the team? He can’t hit… but… but he can run and field. Can he learn to hit? Progress is not linear!
  13. It was obvious to me that Brett de Geus was nervous. After all, that was his first shot with the big club. I look at what he did as “luck for the other guys.” I like him more now than before the game. To me, he is on a fast track…. however… Progress is not linear!
  14. Can Reymin Guduan keep it up? He looked very capable yesterday. Progress is not Linear.

Not only is progress not linear, it often looks like this:

There is a lot to be decided, about who’s on the bench, who plays where, what the pitching staff looks like… and I could see some trades made in Spring Training just to balance out the team. Joc, Kike, CT3, Rios and even Peters could be involved. Not all, just one or two… Stay tuned. This is going to be fun!

It’s fun to win… especially against the Giants, but I get more out of just watching the players perform. There is a lot happening behind the scenes. What a great time to be a Dodger Fan. I have been preaching this for years and it’s finally come full circle.

Today’s Music

This article has 47 Comments

  1. You’re right Mark, it’s a great time to be a Dodger fan and I’m actually excited.

    For whatever reason, I decided to re-read Ned Colletti’s book, The Big Chair, which focuses on his on his time as GM during Frank McCourt’s reign. Terrific book, one of the best ever written about baseball. Great perspective and when you compare those days to today, it really brings into focus how fortunate we are as fans these past seven years. When you look at this year’s team, has there ever been a better time to be a Dodger fan in the last 30 years?

    Listening to interviews with players, you can feel the excitement about this team. Colletti was asked about this recently on the Dodger channel. He said he has never seen a team so focused with so much talent and depth. Thought it was a combination of things, including the Astros sign stealing scandal in 2017, which cheated the Dodgers out of the World Series title and the infusion of talent like Mookie Betts and David Price.

    This should be fun.

    1. I agree with The Big Chair book, sbuffalo. It should be a must read for any serious Dodger fan. Colletti really breaks down what a stressful life it is to be a GM, especially working under McCourt with literally no money to make deals with. Loved that book. Wish I lived closer to LA, I would totally take Colletti’s college class on sports management just to hear his stories. Love him or not, he is an old school baseball lifer, back when you had to depend on your scouts and other peoples input on a player instead of punching a keyboard.

  3. YES it is a great time to be a Dodgers fan. I wear my Dodgers gear wherever I go here in Sacramento, and I uncover dozens of closet Dodgers fans, but they are now becoming more prominent. I even have Giants fans come up to me and say they still hate the Dodgers, but that they were robbed in 2017. Maybe that is why this year feels so promising. I do not want to rush the year. I want to enjoy every game.

    You said the same things I said yesterday with respect to Dennis Santana and Marshall Kasowski. This is going to be a critical spring for Santana who can showcase his arm in a different role than what many have seen. I know both you and I have said for awhile that Santana is destined for late inning magic rather than as a starter. This year the difference is, Dennis believes it.

    That lollipop curve Marshall Kasowski threw yesterday for a strike will not get it done. ML hitters will destroy that pitch. It does work as an offspeed pitch, but it just hangs. He needs to develop a slider that he can drop at the back foot of a LH hitter. He needs to stay in MiLB and develop a second pitch. His #1 may be able to dominate A and AA hitters, but he needs more to continue to progress. His fastball is good, so I hope he can develop a second pitch. Brusdar Graterol has a better arsenal and throws even harder. I see Kasowski more as a trade piece than as a Dodger.

    I agree with you about Brett de Geus being nervous. I still believe he will continue to thrive and move up the organization, but I do not expect him to make the roster until 2021. There are just too many arms ahead of him.

    Doc hinted yesterday that KJ might get a look today. Games mean nothing at this point, but it will be fun to see what both Alex and KJ have done in the off season. Both have received accolades for the way they have been pitching thus far.

  4. Today’s workout will be fun. I’ll do my DDP Yoga at 12:30, with the Celtics Lakers on tv and Dodgers on the laptop.

    I do think the big trade for a top 3 mlb player along with the Astros BS has galvanized the group. Expect another easy route to the NL West and home field advantage thru October. Looking forward to celebrating my bday at Game 1 of the World Series vs the Yanks at Dodger Stadium on Oct 20.

  5. Last week I took my son to Spring Training at Camelback Ranch. I would highly recommend it. Here’s some highlights:

    – The gates open at 9 am each day. Workouts for the day start between 9-10 am when the players leave the main building and walk through the fans to the fields. On the way back in around 11:30-noon they sometimes will take photos with fans and sign autographs. Ross Stripling signed for my son. Ross is a bright guy; a leader.

    – I watched Muncy, Turner, Kike, and Taylor take BP. Muncy definitely has the most raw power.

    – David Price can’t stop smiling. He won’t say it but is happy to be out of Boston and in LA. I briefly spoke with him and told him we’re happy he’s here. He broke into a big smile and said “thanks”.

    – Urias is very popular with the Hispanic fans. He’s not as tall as listed; probably only about 5’10”.

    – Blake Treinen is built more like a linebacker than a pitcher.

    – Camelback is great because only a rope separates you from the players. I’ve never seen pro athletes so up close. But, everybody is respectful and encouraging to the players.

    I have a few photos but not sure how to attach them in a blog post. 🙁

    2. My son, who has been going to ST for years, finally got me to go with him about 10 years ago (right after Camelback opened) and we’ve made it an annual event ever since. If you’ve never been, you owe it to yourself to do it at least once. It’s a whole different feeling and you get to see lots of the young prospects as well.
      Just seconding Adam’s endorsement. Do it! You’ll be happy you did.

      1. Agree. I went to Vero Beach in 2000. Amazing place! I had a great time walking around, seeing everything, taking to anyone. Got pics with Tom Goodwin, Mark Grudzelanek, Rick Monday, Shawn Green. Then went to Camelback in 2015. Again, just walked around, saw all the sights. Drank beers and talked baseball.

        Spring training for a day or 2 really is a fun trip. To echo everyone else, you’ll be glad you did.

  6. I really enjoyed yesterday’s game and look forward to today’s. Your article was very good, Mark, but I am afraid to say I do not agree with you on Hernandez winning the starting 2nd base job. I agree he is a super sub, as is Taylor. I just like Lux for the position.

    1. DodgerBlueMom, concur because some players have limitations that get exposed when asked to play everyday, and Kiki, CT3 are players that benefit from being in their current roles, being able to give some players the day off in a long season and can play all over the field. I recall in 2018 that dodgers had initially put Taylor as the everyday SS while Seager was out for that year and the results with Taylor regressing from the year before that were so evident that is why they traded for Machado for the 2nd half of 2018.

  7. Good post MT! Contemplating what you have written, got me to look back at 3 of the greatest players of all time, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider. Their greatness certainly wasn’t linear, but, they achieved a level of consistency that could be relied on from year to year. Mickey Mantle from age 20 through 32, could be relied on for 20-50 Hrs, 90-125 RBI and an OPS between .900 and 1.169; Duke Snider, from age 23-35, pretty much the same, you could pencil him in for 25-50 HR, 90-130 RBI and an OPS between .830 and 1.070, and Willie Mays from age 23-37 could be relied on for 25-50 Hrs, 80-140 RBI and a remarkable OPS from .925 to 1.078. Same with the last truly great Dodger hitter, Mike Piazza, from age 24 through 33, he would consistently hit between 3-40 Hrs, drive in 90-110 RBI, and produce an OPS of .925 – 1.025.

    While it is fun to contemplate a constant move upward, consistency is what will make you successful in the long run.

    Like DBM, I would be disappointed if Kike was the regular 2nd Baseman, and Lux was sent back to the minors.

    As to Santana and Kasowski, I guess it would come down to who the brass feels is better: Is Santana better than Floro? Is Kasowski better than ???? The odds of them breaking camp with the Dodgers are very long. I think their status would depend on injuries.

  8. Re: Lux

    I have him pencilled in as the starting 2B for 2020. It is in pencil though. He still has to earn the spot.

    If he doesn’t earn it, I have no problem with him starting at OKC (but I don’t think that will happen.)

    If that’s how it plays out though, just don’t have Muncy 2B with Joc 1B.

    Yesterday’s Muncy 2B w Rios 1B is as far as I can go, and I don’t want to go there.

      1. I don’t believe for a minute that Dodgers will even experiment with Joc at 1st base. Muncy, Turner, Rios (if here) are all options. And don’t forget he still may be dealt before the end of ST but if not he will platoon in LF with Pollock. However neither player will be or are thrilled with that scenario.

        1. That’s why Joc should platoon with CT3 where the latter could also get at bats when playing other positions.

  11. Andrew Friedman spent a half an inning with Joe and Orel in the booth and absolutely couldn’t stop raving about JoJo Gray. I don’t think we’re going to see him in a trade package anytime soon.
    He started out as a shortstop and really doesn’t have all that much experience as a pitcher. AF said he still needs some refining but made it sound like we could definitely see him in LA by the end of the year.
    Also had some very nice things to say about Graterol.

  12. Well Betts still doesn’t have a hit as a Dodger. Looks like that trade was a total bust. AF screws it up again! Just wanted to,be the first idiot to post this.

    1. I hereby anoint you… although there are others who REALLY say that stuff. You know of what I speak!

      1. Hey Bums, I think you need to issue a “full disclosure” statement whenever you post a comment on Pollock. I think MLB rules specify that since you are Joc’s agent. 🙂

  13. Hi hopes he had high hopes he had high apple pie in the sky high hopes ,whoops there goes another rubber tree plant, Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant Ha ha Ha

  14. Just my thoughts on the game in my own opinion. Wood, Jansen and Caleb did well. The minor leaguers had 1/2 the hits of the game with Peters (along with 2 RBI’s, Raley and McKinstry supplying them. Pitchers I was impressed with were: White, Salow and one of my favorite rootees, Ryan Moseley. I want to also say that even though T. Ferguson gave up 2 hits and one run, his other stuff looked very good, especially to my unexperienced eye. Keep it up Dodgers, and good luck tomorrow.

  15. Mark, who the hell is going to play in the outfield after this season if the Dodgers trade Joc (not extending him) and DJ Peters and after Betts leaves, yes I said after Betts leaves? You got Bellinger and then who? An injury prone Pollock? And then who? We already lost 5 years of Verdugo. Hell why not lose 6 years of DJ Peters while we’re at it.

    Not that I care but Hernandez is probably gone after this season too.

    Chris Taylor full time in the outfield for 1 year?

    I like Beaty, but…….

      1. Giving Joc a contract extension OR keeping/not trading away DJ Peters is crucial otherwise the Dodgers will have to go shopping in free agency or make yet another trade.

        Free agency is getting very expensive both in dollars and contract length for top notch players. And I’m fearful of trades.

        My hope in the outfield for 2021 and beyond is Bellinger, DJ Peters, and Joc with a platoon partner. I just don’t see Betts sticking around after this season. If not Joc (he might leave after this season) then maybe Beaty gets a chance or someone in the Dodgers system emerges.

    2. I think both Joc and Kike will test free agency after this year. They both desire to be full-time players and that won’t happen with the Dodgers. Unless they move Pollock, he will be here. DJ Peters will be on the roster, as will Bellinger. I think (hope) Mookie stays. If he does, the question will be moot. If he doesn’t, the Dodgers have 2 options – trade him at the deadline and get a good return in prospects, etc. , or give him a qualifying offer, recoup the draft pick, and look to Springer or Castellanos as free agents. We also have CT# and Beatty as debt pieces.

      I suspect that one reason Joc has not been extended is because his agent wants him to test free agency. Same for Kike.

      1. I can’t imagine any universe in which the Dodgers sign Springer as a free agent. Bringing him into the clubhouse would create major problems after what the guys feel about the Astros.
        We try to figure out which free agent outfielders might be available but there will also be trade possibilities. I still think the odds of Mookie signing here long-term are about 50-50.

  16. I just watched an interview with Betts. He did not seem too interested. He patiently answered questions but he basically said Baseball is baseball LA or Boston. Baseball is baseball nothing unexpected so far. Although He showed no emotion he made it clear that he wanted to bat leadoff everyday and not be moved in the order. Hopefully Roberts understands that. He just said it is a comfort level with him. He said he understands why managers do it but it works sometimes and sometimes not.

    Let me second Bums in pollocks start.

    1. He didn’t have an “overly” enthusiastic introductory press conference either imo. It’s definitely not re-assuring for those hoping he’ll re-sign here and all’s we have to do is show him the dough. I was curious enough to look-up some interviews he had while in Boston. There are some similarities in his serious/business-like approach he takes to interviews, and he doesn’t appear all that animated or eagerly candid in the Boston interviews either. But the comfort difference is very apparent. Is it just a familiarity issue? Or is it genuine unhappiness? That said, he already looks pretty comfortable with his teammates and that’s maybe a more important factor in his extension decision.

  18. Guys . Joc already injured. Do you think he will start season ?. Just seems bad they already basically had traded him but did not happened and now he is not able to play yet and not in good shape. And does not look he would be a regular anymore and best chance he has is platoon. I would like Dodgers to give Rios a chance and Trade Joc before season starts. I would trade Kike too as Taylor and him are basically same player and keep Gore as he could be useful if the bench and could be good friend for Mookie.

    1. From what I read Joc is my n incredible shape. He just tweaked his side. Rios is not an outfielder.

  19. I watched the Cubs broadcast. I’m not sure how dialed up they’re trying to be in their first exhibition game but I thought I would share. Wood topped out at 91mph according to the Cubs tv gun. Most of his fastballs were 89-90. His curveball to get Schwarber was filthy.
    ~
    Kenley also topped out at 91. Most of his cutters were 86-87 mph.

      1. Sheffield mostly sat 91-93. He did hit 95mph on the HR pitch. Showed a good change-up and one nice curve ball.

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