It is highly doubtful that the Dodgers are done this off-season in trying to improve their roster, but let’s suppose this is it. If the Dodgers make no further moves this off-season. How will the season turn out?
I say they still win the N.L. West by 7-8 games. They finish the season with 96 wins. They prepare for the postseason with a trade deadline deal to put them in position for a postseason run:
That mid-season move could be for relief help. It may be a right-handed power bat. It could be a starting pitching ace to put them over the hump. Perhaps it’s more than one of those two options. I see this ball club in the Fall Classic again with Atlanta being the major rival for the N.L. crown.
I hate deadline deals, usually because they are almost always over-pays for the buyer. It would be preferable to work out these types of deals in the off-season when desperation and a time constraint isn’t weighing a heavy hand. Unfortunately, what seems to always come out of other G.M.’s mouths when talking trade with the Dodgers, even in the offseason, are the names of highly touted prospects such as Lux, May, Ruiz, Gray. Just as Seager, Bellinger, Smith, and Buehler were often asked for in previous years. Few fans understand that the Dodger top five prospects carry a lot more value than the Giants, D-Backs or Mets top five.
So with that said, it’s just really hard to part with some of our top-notch guys for one year of Mookie Betts along with an outrageously expensive David Price. It is out and out stupid to trade top 20 prospects under team control for years for an overpaid, over the hill starter and one year of a super-star who will sign for Trout-like money in the offseason. We were hosed by Boston once, and we let them off the financial hook out of desperation to attain an attractive fan favorite Mexican American superstar in 2012. The cost was enormous and set the club back for years. What do they say? Fool you once, “shame on you.” But twice. Come on, let’s not be stupid.
Several bullet points to consider that may impact the Dodger’s 2020 performance:
- Justin Turner is playing for his last big-money contract. Wait, let me retract that. More accurately he’s playing to prove he can still produce and be offered another decent one or two- year deal. For that reason, it could be a positive season for RedTurn2. Or will it be a “breakdown” year due to age? He loves playing at home so if there ever was a free agent that would give the team a “home team discount” JT is the guy.
- Other players in contract years include Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson. Also playing with incentives for big-money deals in 2021.
- It is time for Julio Urias to show he is an elite starting pitcher. The shackles are off. The kid is going to be let loose. He either shines or can’t handle the workload. There comes a time that when you just let the kid go all out. One word of caution regarding Julio. Let’s hope that the domestic violence episode is something that woke him up to an understanding that if it ever happens again, his career will be over. Is he a knucklehead or is he mature enough to learn and realize the seriousness of his mistake? All I have spoken to believe he was contrite and embarrassed over the incident that almost curtailed his season. I hope they’re right and he has learned his lesson.
- Mark Prior takes the reins of a major league pitching staff for the first time and we’ll see how he handles the role, especially when it is possible that May, Gonsolin, and Urias see a number of innings in the starting staff. Prior’s role is pivotal and should not be ignored. Perhaps Rick Honeycutt will still be around to help. The Dodgers have always seemed to excel with pitching coaches from within the organization that groomed their staff. Red Adams, Ron Perranoski, Dave Wallace, Charlie Hough, Honeycutt. Prior seems to be the first that I can recall that the Dodgers have taken on board from outside the organization.
- Could Jimmy Nelson be that starting pitcher free agent signed on the cheap the Freidman picked up that provides a significant help? I know it seems laughable that our eye was on Cole and we ended up with Nelson and his 6.95 ERA, but maybe he’s that diamond in the rough that provides some value since he’ll be another season passed shoulder surgery, (i.e. Brett Anderson, Brandon Morrow). We are talking a possible number five guy that eats some innings. That could prove very valuable when considering that May, Gonsolin, and Urias may need to be weened of heavy workloads as the late summer arrives.
- Call me crazy but I can’t help but think that Tony Gonsolin will play a major role in this 2020 Dodger team. Perhaps as a key bullpen component. He has closer stuff, but a repertoire worthy of a starting pitcher. I’m very interested in seeing how they use him and how he adjusts to varying roles on the Major league level.
- Bellinger’s MVP season was amazing, and it would be unrealistic to expect him to repeat. Especially when you consider his second-half OPS dropped to .917. That’s nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 1.124 first-half numbers and .432 OBP, you just can’t expect a repeat of that. Bellinger’s first-half performance was probably the greatest lengthy offensive performance in team history. The kid was flirting with hitting .400 as late as June.
- Corey Seager was embarrassed by his postseason performance last year. He’s too hard of a worker to allow that to tarnish his legacy. Look for Seager to have a comeback year now that he’s a full season past his surgeries. A return to his 2017 self will make everyone forget all the talk of Lindor or Betts trades. I think many of us have forgotten the value that Seager brings to the table.
On another topic…
The recent revelations indicating that the 2018 Red Sox also engaged in electronic sign-stealing on their way to their championship is leading finger-pointing in the direction of Alex Cora, the only participant in both seasons that came out on top. Cora has to pay the price too. His hands are extremely dirty. MLB MUST DO SOMETHING because the integrity of the game is at stake.
As a person that shelled out about five grand on World Series tickets in 2017 and 2018, I think I’m owed the assurance that the game is being played straight. We all are fans. If you pay that type of money to go see the WWE Championship Belt Extravaganza, (or whatever they call it…where’s my son when I need him?) You deserve to toss your money away, because we all know that is fixed. But this isn’t the WWE, Roller Derby, an NBA game refed by Tony Donaghy, or the 1919 World Series. MLB made efforts to ensure that the game would be played with integrity and by the book. The more I think about it, the angrier I get. Time to fire off an email to Rob Manfred.
Oh, and by the way. If you want to stop the sign-stealing cheating scandals, then set up electronic communication between pitchers and catchers. The technology is there, the same as electronic strike zones. Time to move forward with the times. Oh, and refund me my five grand. That will help too.
“The cost was enormous and set the club back for years.”
Set us back for years? Really? We’ve won the west every year since the trade was made. Even after the trade was made, we battled back that year and almost got in in 2012. The farm system has improved immensely since 2012.
But otherwise totally agree with you. In fact, I want my money back from the 2017 and 18 World Series as well!
Good point Bobby. Perhaps a bit over the top with the “set us back for years.” Probably should have emphasized that the money taken on set them over the luxury tax threshold for years.
I’m not sure, but I think what Mark refers to with “ set the club back for years ” is that Dodgers has not been able to sign “ the great free agent ” due to so many millions of salary committed, just this season is that they have room to sign some.
And it is true that from that season they began to win, and I do not see that any West team is close to take away the title
Actually, Evan Bladh is the writer… not me.
What is it about Gonsolin that makes people consider him for the bullpen when he has starter stuff?
I know starters are turned into relievers when they only have 2 good pitches, or like Gagne, have multiple pitches but just aren’t being successful as a starter. But Gonsolin?
Gonsolin started as a reliever and then became a starter. He has more bullpen experience and the Dodgers have the starting staff covered if May continues to pitch like he has. I see Gonsolin as an “Andrew Miller type, but if there are injuries, he could start.
So the thought is if someone had to go to the bullpen he is more capable. Then that makes me wonder how would we ever know how good of a starter he would be if not given the chance. Of course having quality arms in the bullpen might be just as important as having quality starters. So maybe it comes down to who is able to pitch and recover quickly so they can pitch 3-4 times a week?
I would appreciate your comments on this, it has always intrigued me how relievers are usually not recruited and developed vs defaulted to the bullpen when they don’t make it as a starter. I’m thinking there could be a while new area of research and player development re relievers.
I agree with Evan. It was a bad trade and the Dodgers took on way too much money just to make something happen and, of course, acquire AGon.
At the same time, it was a statement and no doubt helped them win at least one NL West title. But overall, except for AGon and a couple of years where Carl Crawford performed well, it may have actually hurt their chances of winning a World Series or two.
While ownership may have thought the statement was important, the reality is the fans were already coming back, most just relieved that Frank McCourt was no longer in charge. The Dodgers had a window to take a deep breath and create a path moving forward.
I can’t imagine Friedman doing the Punto trade. So what happens if the Dodgers don’t make the deal? They still sign Zack Greinke and in the winter of 2014/2015 they would have plenty of money to pursue Max Scherzer, who wanted to come to LA. Think of a team built around a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer.
But signing Scherzer might have impacted the signing of Buehler, who was drafted 24th and fell to the Dodgers because of an obvious arm problem, which required Tommy John. Would Buehler have lasted until the 35th pick? Maybe, probably, but we’ll never know that. Of course, we can’t know for certain that the Dodgers would have signed Scherzer, but they would have certainly been in position to do it. It would definitely have been a statement.
But it is fun to look at what if …
All those things considered, the Dodgers should stay away from bad contracts and if reports are true, they have no interest in Price or his contract.
The reality is probably this … the Dodgers aren’t getting Betts unless it’s in a July deadline deal. There will be no Lindor or Clevinger. The Dodgers aren’t trading Lux or May.
Kris Bryant looks like a possibility, but at what cost? They really need another starter, if possible. There is probably something in the works, but at this point, it probably makes more sense to wait it out.
Regarding Cole, if the Dodgers had acquired him in trade and they certainly could have done that, would two years with LA and no doubt a WS title, have changed his desire to sign with the Yankees?
Good column today, Evan.
I think there may have been another factor involved in the trade with Boston. The Dodgers were negotiating its TV package and I think it is possible that the team needed / wanted the name recognition of Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett to enhance the TV value. Five months after the trade the Dodgers signed the $8 billion dollar TV package. How much extra, if anything, did Dodgers receive by adding those three players for five players / prospects who had little to no TV appeal? I have no way of knowing, but I think it may have been a factor.
I agree. The TV contract played a big roll in that move. The new TV contract was a key component in how they structured the purchase of the team.
I was told by a former Angels front office employee that the Pujols signing had as much to do with the negotiations for their $3 Billion TV deal than anything to do with winning. They offered him more years than anybody else and the additional value they were able to squeeze out of Fox Sports covered most of the cost of Pujols’ entire contract. This despite a belief among staff that Pujols was 3 years older than his official age and was unlikely to maintain a high level of play for even half the contract . At least that was this guy’s claim. This was before Mike Trout became, well… Mike Trout.
I think these TV deals play a bigger role than we want to admit. Baseball is a business.
Apparently GM’s around the league are saying that Theo is asking a king’s ransom for Bryant. Of course, he might soften that a little once Bryant’s case is decided and teams are ready to make offers on him.
Between the Braves, Nats, Rangers, etc. who are interested in Donaldson, those who don’t sign him will probably turn right around and go after Bryant.
Long story short, the odds we wind up with Bryant this year are probably very small. He’s certainly no better a fielder at third than JT and we are overloaded with outfielders to begin with so the thought that Friedman would give up high end prospects to get him just doesn’t seem like his way of doing business.
I think the Punto trade lost the $$ that could have signed Tanaka. I thought Scherzer preferred the east coast but maybe a front loaded contract could have got him as he wound up with a back loaded one.
Scherzer has always been the guy I think the Dodgers should have signed.
Mookie signs for $27MM for 2020 to avoid arbitration.
Urias gets $1M
Nice article Evan. I liked Gonzo and appreciated what he contributed to the Dodgers. It is too bad we had to take on players that burdened us to get him. Liked Punto though.
I’m no prospect expert, but I’ve been watching videos of Kody Hoese and Michael Busch and I like what I see especially from Kody Hoese.
Since Seager’s agent is Scott BorASS I find it hard to believe Seager stays with the Dodgers long term. And it’s not just his agent but also his hitting approach.
I think Gavin Lux is destined for shortstop as a Dodger.
I think Justin Turner eventually will be a David Freese type. A guy that will stick with the Dodgers primarily as the #1 pinch hitter and get spot starts here and there.
I’m high on DJ Peters. I see Peters as a future outfielder for the Dodgers and it might start sometime during this coming up season. And depending on who the Dodgers stick with long term between Muncy and Pederson will probably determined where Bellinger plays either outfield or 1B.
The future is bright for the Dodgers offense, that is unless Friedman starts selling any of those names mentioned above besides Seager.
Just to be clear, you are trading Corey Seager before Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, and strikeout king DJ Peters?
No I’m not talking trading Seager at least not now. I just don’t see him as a Dodger long term, therefore sometime before he becomes a free agent Friedman may trade him to get something in return.
That’s how I read your comment.
After years where AF signed Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, AJ Pollock, and Joe Kelly, with less than optimum results (okay just plain pathetic), Andy McCullough penned his latest article in The Athletic, pontificating about how the Dodgers will be in prime position to sign Mookie Betts next year. McCullough writes that Friedman has elected to avoid that mediocre FA pool this winter. “They watched from the sidelines as starting pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel all signed. The Dodgers harbored great affinity for Ryu, but declined to top Toronto’s four-year, $80 million offer. The Diamondbacks will gamble on the long-term viability of Bumgarner. The White Sox will bet on Dallas Keuchel. The Dodgers will bet on themselves.”
McCullough continues “They will trust their own resourcefulness and ingenuity rather than sign the type of players who have burned them in the past. They will keep their books clean. Their powder will be dry for whenever a superstar might become available.”
It is becoming more clear that AF is big game hunting, and at some point he is going to be able to sign an elite FA who wants to play in LA. Will that be Mookie? He will cost more than Cole. I cannot see AF extending Joc a QO next year, but then again, how many of us (not named Bumsrap) thought that he would have been traded by now. If Joc and Kike’ leave via FA, a corner OF slot becomes wide open for someone like Mookie. Verdugo in LF, Belli in CF, and Mookie in RF. That will easily become the best overall OF in all of MLB. If they do not sign Mookie, they will once again rely on their own, with DJ Peters.
Next year JT, Joc, Kike’, Treinen, and Pedro Baez come off the books, and after 2021, Clayton and KJ come off (with CT3 and Corey). JT should give LA a home town discount as will Clayton, on much more manageable one-two year deals. But KJ will be gone. Never again will AF sign a reliever for 5 years at a $16MM AAV. The Dodgers will have the flexibility to sign Mookie for 2020 and then have the funds to extend Seager if they so choose for 2022. Boras is going to wait for the next CBA to be ratified before he allows any of his clients to sign, especially those that will become FA the first year of the next CBA (Seager).
We will not know if the CBA will address current Super Two players, so Belli will become a FA for 2023 or 2024. Right now it is 2024. Urias becomes a FA for 2024, and Buehler for 2025. If the Dodgers do not sign a significant contract this year (and it looks like they will not), they should look to extend Walker Buehler (another Super Two) through at least his first two years of FA. That will take him to 31.
Keeping that thought, as long as AF presumably thought that Verdugo was not worth giving up for Christian Yelich, why not offer Alex the exact same deal that Christian signed…$49.57MM for 7 years with a team option for an 8th year ($15MM with $1.25MM buyout).
why not offer Alex the exact same deal that Christian signed…..WAR÷$
1. Would Alex accept?
2. Is his back OK?
It was somewhat rhetorical. AF is not going to present it, and Alex would not sign it. It just seems that the Dodgers strategy is to remain with home grown only talent except for low risk/high reward potential, and hope 1 out of 5-10 actually succeed. If the Dodgers do not sign Josh Donaldson, and I fully expect they will not, then they will be approximately $37MM below the CBT threshold. Since it is not expected that the Dodgers will sign or trade for a top of the rotation starter, you can subtract about $5MM to $6MM from that level for Kenta Maeda bonuses since he will undoubtedly make all of his starts and innings.
Thus how to spend that $30MM plus this year, since Kasten has said that he expects to surpass the CBT threshold. Even if they are able to trade for a $35MM AAV player at the deadline, the Dodgers hit will be less than $12MM. Still a long way to go to surpass that threshold. So if you are not going to spend it on FA, spend it on players/prospects that you do not want to trade. Belli/Buehler/Seager/Urias/Verdugo. There has to be an extension in there somewhere right?
2109 WAR for SS:
1. Lindor 5.8
2. Correa 5.3
3. Bogarts 4.8
4. Seager 4.2
5. Semien 4.1
6. Turner 4.0
7. Story 4.0
In a down year – worst of his career, Seager is still the #4 SS in baseball. I cannot understand the eagerness to trade him. He very well may be #1 again!
One word answer BORAS
Wow! Everyone is so anti-anti dairy! By the end of next year everyone is gonna be glad Seager is still a Dodger!
Yes they will.
Great read.
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I hold no ill will for the Punto trade. As SoCalBum pointed out, the TV contract was likely a significant factor. In 2011 the Dodgers finished 11.5 games out of first and attendance dropped below 3 million for the first time since 1995. That contract was significant for the future of the team. They had Kershaw and Matt Kemp playing at superstar level, but little else to be excited about. Especially from the perspective of those pursuing the TV rights.
I think the team needed a shock level reset. Both to convince fans and those in the running for the TV contract that the Frank McCourt days and the culture he created truly were in the rear view mirror. (At least for everything but the parking lot. Still hate that SOB).
I remember being skeptical when the team sold. Magic was involved. Ok, seemed like window dressing. Big talk of this and that. Ok, any buyer would say that. But then they pulled the trigger on the trade. I distinctly remember thinking.. “OK… these guys aren’t messing around”.
Did being on the receiving end of the biggest payroll dump in history hold us back? I’m sure it did, to some degree. But sometimes you need to make an impression with more than words. Sometimes you have to hit the reset button with a sledge hammer to get everybody’s attention. That trade did that. And likely sealed the deal on the $8 Billion in TV revenue and ownership of their own channel. It sucks that many fans can’t watch that channel, but it was a great deal for the Dodgers.
I don’t think AD could have pulled off the 5 division wins in a row, two WS appearances and stacking the system top to bottom… all at once, without that trade. It helped pack the seats again and land the TV deal which provided predictable, long term cash flow.
For me, the Punto trade was the gasoline infused pallet cleanser that got the wretched taste of the McCourts out of my mouth.
And yet he lives on every time we park our cars!
Ya. That still kills me.
Can’t believe this is still up after all these years. And that I managed to find it again.
https://sportingnerds.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/frankslots2.jpg
Jedd Gyorko has signed with the Brewers. Can this off season get any more depressing?
Ha
I’ve been busy with a lot of stuff this week, and haven’t read this post yet. But before I do I have to blow off some steam, after having listened to Casey Stern on MLB radio a few times this week ragging on the Dodgers relative inactivity this offseason. In a word, Casey Stern is a MORON, and I don’t have much good to say about his partner in moronity, Brad Lidge. Don’t these guys know that the offseason is far from over, and a lot can happen between now and opening day, or even the July trade deadline. I don’t recall what year it was, but I distinctly remember the Dodgers filling their need in CF when they acquired Milton Bradley just days before opening day in whatever year it was. Stern keeps saying that he would gladly surrender 6 years of Lux for two years of Lindor. He even said he would do it for one year of Lindor.
If Corey Seager puts up a 4.2 WAR in 2109 (a perfectly understandable typo), he has my most sincere respect. Like I said, I haven’t read most of what’s above, but I do expect Seager to return to form this year. I still see him as a 30-40 HR guy if he uses this off-season to get himself back into pre-TJ shape. Hard work, and added physical and mental maturity are all it should take for us to see a Corey Seager at his best. And though I anticipate that he’s eventually going to have to move off of shortstop, it’s not an absolute necessity at this point.
Mark is right that conventional wisdom is often wrong, but I still disagree with him about the Punto trade. For what it’s worth, I sometimes disagree with Mark, but always respect his opinions. I simply cannot fathom what’s bouncing around in Casey Stern’s head.
I can’t even watch baseball coverage right now. They have so little to talk about that they have to make stuff up or go on wild rants just to fill airtime. Casey Stern is one of the worst.
I absolutely love listening to Casey Stern and I agree with him on most things especially all the nonsense around pace of play and how much time broadcasters spend complaining about what’s wrong with the game. I don’t love Lidge so much though. All of his years in Colorado have made Spilly a Dodgers hater but he tries to give fair analysis. They have to cram the same topics in on a daily basis and try and make it interesting. I’m sure that’s tough in the off season. I have disagreed with Casey this week though when it comes to dealing Gavin Lux and the Cleveland scenarios. The Dodgers don’t have to do anything now. Yes, he may wind up being right about Julio Urias. I think we will have a good idea this year if the Dodgers made the right move not dealing him years ago. As fans we can’t have rabbit ears when it comes to our teams. All in all he’s entertaining and does a good job.
I like it when Mr. Timmonds says, words more / words less, “find the player before he is a star”.
George Springer at 24:
78 G
295 AB
20 HR
51 RBI
39 BB / 114SO (38%)
.231 AB
.336 OBP
.468 SLG
.804 OPS
2.0 WAR
You’re not saying D.J. Peters will be Springer but could he approach that in his first year?
I am ambivalent about Peters. He has huge power, but he has to make better contact. He struck out 37% of the time last year at AA and AAA. That will translate to about 45% in MLB. He has some work to do, but he’s a good athlete. I can see him being Jayson Werth or Kyle Russell.
I feel the same way. He’s got a long way to go with his bat to ball skills. I think people tend to overlook that the AAA balls were juiced liked the MLB balls last year. I think it has something to do with why we saw so many people’s numbers actually go up at AAA from AA.
Seager signs a 1 year, $7.6mil deal for 2020
Kike signs 1 year, $5.9mil deal for 2020
Also, Belly signs a 1 year $11.5 mil deal for 2020
For those of you who have a subscription to The Athletic, I highly recommend an article posted today by Jason Stark on how the game will change over the next decade. Some really interesting changes to contemplate.
I like it a lot! Change is needed and I think that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Here’s the article:
https://theathletic.com/1521278/2020/01/10/stark-realignment-robots-and-the-universal-dh-what-baseball-will-be-like-at-the-end-of-this-decade/