It is time for a little Devil’s Advocacy. I have been an unapologetic fan of Andrew Friedman and what he has accomplished, and just as critical as to what he has NOT accomplished. I was critical when AF did not beat out the Astros offer for Gerrit Cole before the 2018 season. The Astros traded a #5 SP in Joe Musgrove, a decent but unceremonious 3B, Colin Moran, a RHRP even the Dodgers would not sign, Michael Feliz, and a throw away lottery ticket, Jason Martin. How much better could the Pirates be if AF traded Ross Stripling, CT3, Josh Fields/Brock Stewart, and another unnamed throw away lottery ticket. Maybe not that much, but that would have been a better deal for the Pirates and the Dodgers could have had two years of Gerrit Cole.
I want to be crystal clear. I have NO idea what the Dodgers offered (if they did at all). I only know that they could have put together a better package than what the Astros did, without hurting their roster. I do know that the Dodgers were working to get under the CBT threshold to reset the tax, but Cole’s salary in 2018 was $6.75MM. They could have done any number of transactions to stay below the CBT threshold. AF is a math wizard, and that algorithm should have been very easy to create.
I was also critical of the Dodgers not acquiring Christian Yelich. I wrote a week or so back how that trade is working out (or not) for Miami, but at the time Lewis Brinson was a top 2 OF prospect in all of MLB. It absolutely would have cost Alex Verdugo (and others), but Yelich still had 4 years of $7.081MM AAV and a team option of $15MM in 2022. I would gladly have traded 7 years of Alex Verdugo for 5 years of Yelich, and I like Alex Verdugo…a lot. I do not know if the Dodgers considered Yelich or made any offer, but they could have and not hurt the 25 man roster at the time. Again I want to be clear that I have NO idea what may have been offered or if there was an offer at all. I can only look at the trade and deduce that LAD could have put together a superior package and not hurt the roster.
I do believe that AF was strongly advised to get under the CBT threshold, but I am convinced they could have pulled that off for either Cole or Yelich in 2018, and maybe both. At the time, nobody thought that Seager was going to have TJ surgery, so Manny Machado was not even anticipated at the time. Ryan Madson, John Axford, and Brian Dozier were wastes of dollars, and the team may have been better off without them.
I can play what if with anyone. The point is that I can be an unapologetic believer in what AF has accomplished and still be critical for what he has not. Now we need to look forward.
Right after that dreadful NLDS Game 5, I proclaimed that the Dodgers should go bold during the offseason. I was hoping the Gerrit Cole would have at least considered LAD, but there is no way AF was going to get him away from NYY. I thought that when Hader’s name was brought up that he would be a bold trade target. I liked MadBum more for his stone cold competitiveness than his arm, which is in decline. I pushed early for Drew Pomeranz, but he got 4 years/$34MM from San Diego. AF was not going to match that. I have advocated for a Ken Giles trade, even though I do not consider this going bold. I advocated for Aaron Bummer LAST year, but the ChiSox believe they will contend for the AL Central, and are not happy with their bullpen as it is. They are not moving Bummer without a significant overpay. I liked Will Harris, but not for three years. He was not a lock to help end the WS drought as we can revisit Games 6 and 7 in last year’s WS. But maybe that is the overpay they could have absorbed.
I am comfortable that the Dodgers have the offense to contend for the WS championship. I still thought that Rendon would have been bold, but at $245MM would not have been smart. He was not needed like Cole was/is. I like Lindor and Betts, but are they critical? Either would help the Dodgers in the short run (depending on who they were traded for), but neither are critical for the Dodgers. Helpful and makes them better? Absolutely!! Critical? Absolutely not!! A chance at a ring is important, so a prospect overpay should be considered, as long as it does not leave the team without a continuous pipeline, even if the pipeline is not all MLB top 100 prospects.
There are no FA pitchers that can help at the top of the rotation. There are a couple who can be back end help for one year, but I am not blocking May, Gonsolin, or Gray for more than one year. So that means the Dodgers are going to need to get pitching help (starting and relief) via trade. Mark listed about 20 prospects who are considered near ML ready and points to that perhaps AF should hold the line and wait for these prospects to deliver. Even I am not that patient, because that day may never come. Nobody loves the minor leaguers more than me (some as much as, but not more). But at some point you have to make a decision as to who are “untouchable” and who are available for trade. To get a difference maker, a team needs to trade a potential difference maker(s).
MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo) has their team top 30 prospects. IMO the Dodgers top 2 are untouchable (Lux and May), with 3 – 6 close but not untouchable (Ruiz, Gray, Downs, Gonsolin). For me pitching is key, so Gray and Gonsolin would be next in line for “untouchable”. With Seager and Lux ahead of him and Estevez, Amaya, and to a lesser degree Mann, behind him, Downs is not nearly as untouchable. Besides, the rumor is that LAD wants Downs to play some CF, making him a Kike’ or CT3 type player. Or he could be a potential AS at 2B in a trade for a need. The return on Ruiz would have to be Josh Haderesque.
Many are assuming that JT will be done as a fulltime 3B after 2020, but I am not one of them. I think the Dodgers could re-sign him for 2 years (after 2020 season) and an option with vesting incentives for games played. Miguel Vargas has shot up the prospect charts, and while he could be a legit RH bat in the lineup, I do not have an opinion as to whether he is a legit 3B defensively. But I think the same is true for Kody Hoese. Do the Dodgers need both if one could be packaged for a legit starting pitcher or closer?
With the number of young pitchers on the 40 man, especially those that figure to be on the 26 man this year, including, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Jo Jo Gray, there is a surplus of pitching that many teams might find helpful. While I may disagree, the Dodgers are undoubtedly going to continue to keep Mitchell White in the starting rotation (at OKC). So why not look to move pitchers like Michael Grove, Edwin Uceta, or Robinson Ortiz? They are not considered front line, but could they become Kyle Hendricks type steals if packaged properly?
The current weakness in the MiLB system for LAD is the OF, which is why Jeter Downs is being seriously considered for CF play. Therefore, even with his strikeout concerns, I would be very reluctant to trade DJ Peters. But if he were included for a difference maker (say Mookie Betts), I would not hesitate. Before you holler, Betts is a better ballplayer than Machado, and the Dodgers gave up their #2 OF prospect in Yusniel Diaz in that deal (and 4 others). DJ Peters has never been rated as high as Diaz, who is still a MLB top 100 prospect with Baltimore. If it is for one year of Betts, just like with Yusniel Diaz, I am okay if DJ Peters is included.
I appreciate what Edwin Rios can do to a pitched baseball, but he is not a 3B, and the team does not need another LH 1B/DH. The team needs another RH bat not LH bat.
With Smith, Ruiz, and Cartaya ahead of Connor Wong, Wong could be a valuable package piece looking for a hybrid catcher/2B. I saw enough of Cartaya last year to believe that while he is slow, he is going to be a ML catcher who can hit. He does not have the bat to ball skills as does Ruiz which is why he is not rated as high, but he is still a tremendous prospect for someone (including the Dodgers).
LHP Jimmy Lewis is untouchable for another reason. Nobody knows how he is going to recover from his shoulder injury. I am not as enamored with Marshall Kasowski as many here are, and I would not hesitate to include him in a package. He is a one pitch pitcher, and while he may be able to dominate the lesser talented hitters at AA, MLB hitters will figure him out quickly. I think of Kasowski more as a Josh Ravin and Jacob Rhame type pitcher. I think more of Brett de Geus and Gerardo Carrillo, and I have not given up on Jordan Sheffield. I also believe that Dennis Santana is headed to the pen this year, and should reemerge sometime this season as a legit relief option. I would be very hesitant to consider him late inning high leverage type reliever at this time. He looks to be more of a multi inning long/middle reliever.
The Dodgers have multiples of potential high leverage relief prospects as well as middle relievers (every team needs them). How they develop could produce a tremendous bullpen down the line, but not this year, and way more than they can possibly keep. (More on this in an upcoming column).
The Dodgers have the CBT threshold space to sign multiple high cost players. Plus they have player capital to trade for a difference maker if they so choose. It is better to trade a prospect when they have perceived value rather than have them prove otherwise (Zach Lee, Yadier Alvarez, and Jeren Kendall). They held on to each of the players too long, and now they really have no choice but to keep working with Kendall to see if they can get a breakthrough offensively. Defensively he is a tremendous CF prospect, and has plus plus speed on the base paths.
So while I will remain optimistic this year and believe the hype on the kids (Lux, May, Gonsolin, Urias), I will not be as forgiving next season if the Dodgers do not win a WS championship and did not meet the CBT threshold, or thin out that prospect cache that they have. Whether the other 29 teams would even consider a Dodgers prospect not named Lux or May is still a question for me. Why accept Gonsolin when the team wants May, or Downs, when the team wants Lux. If Cleveland or Boston will not trade Lindor/Clevinger or Betts without either Lux or May, AF is prepared to walk, and I accept that. And yes I recognize that they are only prospects compared to All Stars.
They are $37.5MM below the threshold and if they wait until the trade deadline, they could trade for Mike Trout and not go past the threshold with his 2 months of salary. It is one thing to be prudent with the salaries, it is another to be neglectful if a player can be obtained at a reasonable cost. I have been steadfast in my defense of LAD and their decisions to not pay outlandish salaries for players, even elite players like Gerrit Cole. But there comes a time when you have the cash, and you have the prospects, that you say, if not now…when. Change the dynamic of this team. If you go down, at least go down trying something different than status quo. Come on AF make it happen.
AC, allow me to twist your words a bit for a moment. Like you, I like the business side of what AF has done and his cultivation of the farm. So I am aboard with that. But what would have happened if AF had pulled off those acquisitions of Cole and Yellich. Would we still be without a WS trophy? Of course, no one could know the answer, but at least we would have seen that AF is willing to pull off an acquisition of major talent. To this day, I do not see that commitment and that is the beef that many like me have with him. Can you really arm wrestle me to change this view of him? I don’t think so as long as he has not engaged any outside major talent. Plus he let Greinke walk when money was the only issue, not talent. This is the pattern I see and it might prove that he will not do any big deals with most of the talent that we currently have when their contracts come up for renewal or extension.
You are also probably thinking that if he can sign Trout as a rental for the upcoming season for 2 months, he will also not make a real play to retain him in FAgency at the end of 2020. N’est ce que pas?
You do not consider the trade for Manny Machado a major acquisition? Reportedly Greinke did not go back to the Giants, or Dodgers when AZ made it outlandish final offer, so neither team was given the opportunity to make counter offers. Thankfully the Pirates trade demands for Felipe Vazquez were so large that Friedman said no. I have no problem with the Dodgers (Friedman) making sensible business decisions in constructing the roster rather than make insane offers like those made to: Prince Fielder; Jason Heyward; Carl Crawford; Chris Davis; Sin-So Chu; Josh Hamilton; et al — this list is much longer. By no means is Friedman and his staff perfect, there have been several missteps (IMO), but overall he has done a terrific job for the Dodgers.
Manny was a rental. They paid only the pro-rated salary he was due for the remainder of his contract. When it came time to make the decision whether to sign him or not, they passed, as they should have. Manny didn’t do much for our team and to pay his high price was stupid. In this case, they got a real preview and I agreed with AF’s decision. But in the case of Cole and Greinke’s contract while with the Dodgers, they could have gotten both of them and paid less for a top tier pitcher than what they would have to pay now. Yellich was another example of not being able or willing to go out of his ‘system’ of gardening. AF has made mistake after mistake in the FA market. He is not some Holy Cow icon the way many here feel, ‘can do no wrong’.
Regarding Machado, I was referring to your comment “…as long as he has not engaged any outside major talent.” Rental, or not, Machado (at the time) was a legit outside talent. The report that Dodgers made an 8 year, $300M offer to Gerrit Cole seems to be a sizable engagement — there is nothing more for Friedman can do when Cole accepted the Yankees — I believe Cole knew from the beginning of free agency that the Yankees were his preferred destination. They also “engaged” on Rendon, but no offer when it was clear he was not interested in the “Hollywood lifestyle.” It was also reported that Greinke accepted AZ offer without letting SF, or LA try to counter, or match the offer. I don’t think Friedman is perfect, but I do believe he is the best head of baseball operations this team has had for a long time.
My comments to AC were regarding the overall FA market and lack of signing anyone significant during the tenure of AF. Machado doesn’t fall into this category, being signed as a rental and not as a FA. AF doesn’t sign major outside talent and at the same time, the Dodgers have blown 3 chances at the WS. Does this have any relationship? We cannot answer this definitively, but we also don’t have any data supporting AF’s refusal to sign Yelich and Cole when they were affordable. Rentals make sense when you need tactical help in a battle for the end game. Vision for the overall game (WS trophy) is seemingly elusive to this FO. My only question which I don’t expect anyone to answer but to think about, is would the signing of a major FA or two resolve this quagmire? I say it can’t hurt us, but not at $400M a pop. Many choices have passed us by under this tenure.
You would have been willing to trade Bellinger and Verdugo for Yelich?
AF Has made mistake after mistake in the free-agent market? And yet, with all of those huge mistakes he has won more games in his tenure and got to two World Series. Imagine how many games the Dodgers would have won if he were not so incompetent.
I too wanted Yelich and Cole, but you are right – we don’t how the Marlins valued the Dodger prospects. We can look at either deal in the rear-view mirror and say the “Dodgers could have beat that” but at the time maybe the Marlins valued Brinson like many people in baseball did. Maybe the Dodgers offered Verdugo, but the Marlins took Brinson because he was raked higher at the time. What if the Marlins were asking for Bellinger? We simply don’t know. We often find out the real story years later. On Cole… what if the Pirates were asking for Buehler?
What if the Dodger had acquired Cole Hamels 5 years ago at the expense of Seager, Urias, and Pederson? Would they have been better? I have no problems with the Greinke deal. When someone beats your bid by $70 million… you walk. AF made a big play for Cole but was never allowed to counter… and maybe he would not have countered, but I suspect he might have, because it was not nearly as big of a gap as the Greinke deal.
I think AF would love to add pitching… but at what cost? I still think he will stand pat until the trade deadline… UNLESS someone wants to back off their demands. As an example, if the Red Sox are out of contention in June, I could see AF taking on Price and Betts salaries, but the cost in prospects would be minimal.
… and least we forget, David Price finally came through in the playoffs in 2018 after failing like Clayton (actually worse). So there is hope for Clayton.
On the relievers: it’s just a crapshoot. I would have given Harris $10 million for 1 year, but not $24 million for 3. That is going to just be a bad deal in a year or two. Giles? Who knows. Pedro Stroop is worth a shot.
I do agree with the entire premise of the blog, but I trust the Dodgers will make the right decision.
If I recall correctly the Pirates wanted a ready-now third baseman (Moran) in the trade for Cole, and the Dodgers did not have anyone that met that requirement at the time of the trade. At the time Moran was coming off a huge 2017 season in AAA and in his brief call up to the Astros did very well. To this day I do not understand why the Dodgers did not put together a better package for Christian Yelich (a SoCal guy). I believe Jeter Downs athleticism puts him well above Omar Estevez as a prospect. I think Downs could even play third base very well even though he only has average arm strength (Justin Turner does not have a canon either).
Maybe you know who the Dodgers offered for Yelich, but I have no clue. I do know that Yelich was already an accomplished MLB Player who had finished 19th in MVP Voting as age 24 and had won a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Many predicted great things for him, so in retrospect, the trade was horrible from the Marlins view, but at the time, Brinson was thought to be “All That.” I would imagine that the Fish were asking for Bellinger and Verdugo at the very least.
Obviously I do not know who Dodgers offered, if they did make an offer, so yes, my 20/20 hindsight tells me that Dodgers could have made a better offer. You are likely correct that Marlins were asking for the most elite talent of the Dodgers, that is what all teams have been doing for years. And, no I would not trade Bellinger, but I definitely would have put Verdugo and others in a package.
I think AC is right – the Dodgers see Jeter Downs as the next Kike Hernandez.
I also know that there are several arms in the Dodgers system who may be ready in 2020. I would not be a bit surprised to see Brett de Geus make the show in 2020. Blake Treinen is a big risk and so is just about every other bullpen pitcher. I think I feel the same as AF – I would love to have more and better bullpen arms, but a monkey throwing darts at names may have a better chance of picking the right one.
Good post AC and I certainly agree. While the Dodgers for whatever reason did not go all in for Yelich or Cole, or we didn’t fit their needs, or whatever. It also is mystifying that other teams like the Yankees, Boston, and others did not beat the price. I know this is about our Dodgers but there are many other teams that for whatever reason did not pull the trigger. Could we use Yordan Alvarez about now in left field? That seems like a sloppy move. But it did fill a need that everybody has been screaming about. Fields wasn’t a bust but this looks like it may go down as worse than Shaw for Konerko.
The one that continues to baffle me is pollock. Obviously, he can’t stay healthy and never has. He can’t run or defend anymore. He is on the wrong side of 30. His flailing at sliders is worse than a young Kemp. He is rh and is a streak hitter who could be a versatile outfielder maybe. Maybe we were satisfied that a half season is all we would need from him with our depth. It just seems it tied our hands in future signings or extensions for people we already have. It just looks like we just needed to sign someone so we just throw money at the last man available.
I still think if we get to the playoffs the chances are we are going to need a starting pitcher, a rh bat, and a bullpen arm. However, none of those are certain because we may have all 3 in our system. Let the young pitchers determine if we need a starter, with the addition of Treinen and improved performance we might be close in the bp, the rh bat seems the most unlikely.
I would love to know which metrics the Dodgers used to justify signing Pollock. At the time I thought it was a mistake and nothing has changed my mind. His offense away from AZ hitter friendly Chase Field was very ordinary, and his defense had declined for the two previous seasons. He is now a Dodger, so will root for his success, but a head scratcher for me. I am still concerned about the collection of LH’ers in the bullpen: Alexander, Kolarek, Ferguson, and Gonzalez.
I think Pollock was a mistake too, but even he could redeem himself. I am not counting on it.
Well, I’m not giving up Gavin Lux or Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin in a trade for Francisco Lindor. Hey, I get it, Lindor is a really good switch hitting shortstop with amazing defensive skills and a personality that would connect with Hollywood. He’s probably one of the best five or six players in baseball. But there is no guarantee that he puts you over the top. Plus, I think people tend to forget just how good a healthy Cory Seager is … I would think the Dodgers would want to sign him to a long term extension. If Scott Boras makes that difficult, they can always pivot to Lindor and simply out bid everybody. The best of all worlds. You get the player and don’t give up the prospects needed to make such a deal.
Does taking on David Price’s contract make sense? Not unless the Red Sox toss in cash to reduce it considerably and include Betts. Maybe Price is healthy, but do the Dodgers want to go back down the pike of dead money contracts? Does LA really want to bail the Red Sox out of a financial mess again? Now if Price is healthy and delivers, then a different story. Best scenario for the Red Sox, they dump Price’s contract, then re-sign Betts as a free agent. The Dodgers could come out of that deal looking like idiots.
The Dodgers are really good. They could maybe use another starter to eat innings or wait until the trade deadline to pick up a hot reliever or starter as they look toward the playoffs.
Hey, I agree on Christian Yelich. But the package offered by Milwaukee, on paper, was considered to be a big haul for the Marlins. Yes, Alex Verdugo straight up for Yelich would have probably ended up being a better deal for Miami than what they got from the Brewers. Not even sure the Dodgers were heavily engaged. What’s kinda funny is that I wrote that the Dodgers should have packaged Puig and Gordon to acquire Yelich back when Friedman just took over. My logic was simple. Puig was Cuban and that would play well in Miami. We needed a lead off hitter since we were trading Gordon and Yelich could fill that role. Plus he was a SoCal guy. Puig was coming off a pretty couple of years, but there were issues. The reaction, trade Puig, are you crazy? Pretty funny.
I’m sure the Dodgers kicked the tires on Gerrit Cole and certainly could have offered a better package for him than the Astros did. But remember, Cole was an inconsistent pitcher and his last season with the Pirates was pretty mediocre. I thought the Dodgers should have pursued him at the time and in some ways, I’m surprised they didn’t. There were moments he looked dominating.
Zack Greinke’s agent did go back to the Dodgers, but the team passed. They didn’t go back to the Giants, who had already fallen out. Both the Dodgers and Giants bids were in the same ball park and Greinke enjoyed playing for the Dodgers. The Dodgers were going to work out the minor details on the contract Monday. Then came the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers made three mistakes. The first was just not giving Greinke a seven year, $175 million contract originally, with no opt out, which is what his agent wanted. They strongly believed that he would hold up well over six years. Stan Kasten just didn’t want to go to the seventh year. Mistake two was not extending the contract prior to spring training, which is something Greinke had interest in doing. For less money than what they ended up offering. The third was not closing the deal earlier by crossing the T, that’s how close they were. Three strikes, you’re out. Valuable lesson there, those who snooze lose. That mistake has repeatedly come back to haunt the Dodgers.
Excellent points by sbuffalo on the mistakes made in letting Greinke get away. The opt out clause included in the original contract by Kasten proved to be extremely costly. The dodgers committed to a 6 year contract for $24 million per year and instead of adding a 7th year, or another concession like a no trade clause, they gave him the opt out. Even if the dodgers had resigned him in 2015, it was going to cost $31 million a year for 5 more years. So the original opt out clause required the dodgers to increase their remaining commitment to Greinke in 2015 from $69 million over 3 years to $155 million over 5 years. And of course, since the dodgers waited to extend Greinke, they allowed the Dbacks to come in at the last minute and sign Greinke away. It was a big mistake for the dodgers to take on all of the risk of a 6 year contract to a pitcher and then let him opt out and walk away when Greinke performs well.
However, the Kasten opt out mistake does not relieve Friedman of his mistakes of not extending Greinke in the spring of 2015 or immediately after the 2015 season. As a reminder, Greinke posted a 19-3 record, 1.66 ERA, WHIP of 0.84 in 2015, and somehow did not win the Cy Young award! Greinke signed with the Dbacks on 12/4/15 only 5 hours after they decided to even pursue a Greinke signing. Friedman had 2 months after the season ended to resign Greinke and didn’t get it done, even though Dbacks closed the deal in 5 hours. And while the AZ offer of $206 million over 6 years was well in excess of the Dodgers $155 mill for 5 years, the AZ offer had significant deferred money. In the end, Friedman’s delays in resigning Greinke hurt the dodgers, and they likely would have won a WS in 2016 – 2019 if they retained Greinke. When the dodgers lost Greinke in 2015, they signed Kazmir for $48 million/3 yrs and gave Brett Anderson $16 million/ 1 yr. Kazmir had 4.56 era in 2016 before getting hurt, and Anderson pitched 4 games with 11.91 era in 2016. The loss of Greinke was a big mistake by both Kasten and Friedman.
Another recent example of the extreme cost of opt out provisions can be seen in the recent Strasburg contract. The Nationals committed $175 million/7 yrs to Strasburg in 2016, even though he had an injury history including TJ surgery. He opted out of the last 4yrs/$100 million in Nov 2019, and resigned for $245 million/7 yrs. with the Nats. The opt provision will cost the Nats $145 million.
Overall, AF has been an outstanding GM, and the Dodgers a successful organization over the last 7 years. However, the loss of Greinke was costly, unnecessary, and one of AF poorest decisions. Unfortunately, AF made a similar mistake by not resigning Ryu last year to the 3yr/$33 million deal projected on MLBTR, and instead extended only the 1 year QO at $18 million. The dodgers could have another 2 years of control of Ryu at only $11 million in CBT. Or the dodgers could have negotiated an extension with Ryu during the 2019 season instead of losing him to the Blue Jays. Of course, every GM makes mistakes especially with hindsight.
I still have confidence that AF will make an impactful trade either prior to the season or at the trade deadline, but the current offseason has certainly been disappointing so far.
Again, I don’t think there was a snowball’s chance in hell that Greinke or Ryu would have accepted an extension. Look what happened with Cole. He was projected to get $250 million or thereabouts. He blew through that like nothing. Most of these guys are too smart to do that. If Friedman had offered Greinke $200 million he might have took that, but that would have been considered ridiculous at the time.
Mark did I miss the big news you mentioned Thursday,
I just had a couple of commenters escorted out of the building.
One or both were just begging for it, so I accommodated them.
Of course, I am a terrible person.
And then you followed them to the site you sent them to and piled on again – terrible maybe – stupid yep.
Good post AC! My answer to your question: “Manana”
Probably due to Boras the Dodgers don’t think they can sign Seager. On the financial end they are probably planning on playing lux at short when seager is gone. I like lindor for sure and I was one of the first to say go get lindor last year. However, I would side with AF and not give up lux or may if that is what they are actually asking.
My focus would be on getting price and Betts. AF might be able to negotiate this if he feels a need. Betts is ideal for our team. The risk is does price have anything left. Don’t forget that he pitched not only as a starter but out of the bullpen successfully against us in the World Series. This might be a better deadline deal as far as cost. We could see how price is health wise and if Boston is in the hunt. Of course other teams may be more motivated at that time so I’m sure AF is calculating all this. He is not going to take on all that salary nor should he.
We need dominate starters. We may have them in May or Urias. Gonsolin also looked very good down the stretch. I am less excited about urias but he may be the one. May seems to need a third pitch but it could develop. This is a risky rotation. They could be great which says a lot! There are health risk with urias and kershaw with less proven depth. So far AF has made sure we have had enough quality depth that we don’t have to overpay in a trade.
Perhaps it was a straw man argument I made when I asked if those who are criticizing AF for not offering Cole $400MM right off the bat, before NYY made an offer. I say $400MM because there is no way NYY would let Cole go at $350MM. Maybe $400MM crossed the line for NYY. But those who are critical have not said whether that is what they would have done. AF did make a better AAV offer than did NYY and he said no without letting AF try to counter. So for those critical of AF not spending money on elite players, what is contract size that AF should have gone all the way in?
I feel the same about Greinke. The Dodgers made a good offer that was apparently acceptable to Greinke, and well above AF’s comfort zone. The DBacks went crazy and will still be making $10MM annual payments to Houston for the next two years. I agree with you Jeff that AF let him walk all because of $$$ and not talent. He was already 32 and losing velocity, and the DBacks total contract offer was 33% more than the Dodgers. On surface it does not appear to be an acceptable contract. Why would a responsible official make such an offer. The DBacks did it for two reasons; they thought Zack could help them win, and it kept him away from the Dodgers. He did not help them win, but they were successful in keeping him away from the Dodgers. So I would let Puig loose in that pool any time.
I do not like the premise of making an offer to keep a player away from another team. Concentrate on making YOUR team better rather than worrying about any other team. That is why I do not get exorcized about Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields. Absolutely nobody knew how Alvarez would turn out, and Fields filled a need at the time. Contrary to popular belief, Fields did pitch fairly well.
2017 – 57.0 IP, 5-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, 2 SV, 3 BS, 15 Hold, 23 Inherited runs 10 scored
2018 – 41.0 IP, 2-2, 2.20 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 2 SV, 1 BS, 8 Hold, 9 inherited runs and 0 scored
No reliever of the year numbers, but respectable. In 2017, he gave up too many untimely HRs, but he was certainly not alone. He cut his HR’s allowed down in 2018, and did not allow an inherited runner to score.
In the post season, Josh pitched in 10 games, and was scored on in only 2 of those games. What made his ERA ugly was Game 2 of the WS when he allowed 2 earned runs in 0.0 IP. Josh was a fastball pitcher and the Astros were a fastball hitting team who knew exactly how Fields pitched.
Even Jeff Luhnow had no idea about how good Yordan Alvarez would become.
“Really, it wasn’t until the day of the deadline that I remembered the Dodgers had signed Alvarez, and I thought, ’Well, if we can’t get a minor league player that we’re really excited about, why don’t we just take a flier on this young guy that they just signed that I know we like?’ ” Luhnow said.
I would be happy to absorb the Price contract if it brought Betts with him, and did not cost top prospects. If have to absorb Price’s contract, no top 100 prospects. Maybe a couple in the 10-20 and one from 20-30. Let Boston pick the names. I have no idea what Price has left, but if he can some how some way replicate his 2018 WS, I would take him. But we never know. AF cannot be afraid of how good the players he trades turn out. That is part of a trade. His only concern is that he is getting value for value (and maybe a slight overpay because of some urgency to get that championship ring) and that the players the Dodgers get, help them to get back to and win the WS. Betts and Price are no guarantee (no player is), but I like the Dodgers’ odds better with Betts and Price more than with second tier prospects. I think Price gets through at least two of the three years, and with any luck and innings pitched monitoring, Price could make it through three, even if not at CY level.
I have never been a huge advocate for Lindor because like sbuffalo, I am a huge Seager fan, and believe he is going to have a tremendous year. He is not the defensive whiz that Lindor is (nobody is), but he is every bit the hitter that Lindor is, and is a far better hitter with RISP and RISP w/2 outs. It is not close. I also diminish the importance of his SB because the Dodgers do not run. It is not a big part of their game, and Lindor will never approach the number of SB that he has now.
I too would like to try and extend Seager, but Boras is not going to extend Seager or Bellinger until he sees what the next CBA is going to be. IMO if there is no floor agreed to, then I would want the CBT threshold to hit $300MM before luxury tax. There will be some change in the CBT maybe not as significant that I would like, but Boras is going to wait and see what that number will be before he allows any of his clients to extend.
With the Nats re-signing Asdrubal Cabrera, they are seemingly out of the Donaldson auction. That leaves the Twins and Braves as the only two teams who have offered 4 years. Reportedly, if either of those teams calls and agrees to 4 years and $110MM, Donaldson would end it and sign.
It looks like the Nats are going back to the older veteran player to help them fill their roster. Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, and Howie Kendrick. It looks like Carter Kieboom is going to have to continue to wait.
Apparently Chris Rose and Kevin Millar were discussing the Betts/Price duo coming to Hollywood. In their opinion it would not make sense if Mookie would not agree to a long term deal with LAD, and they threw out $300MM+. There is no way that Betts signs for the low $300MM’s. He will be younger than Trout when Trout signed his 12 year $426.5MM contract. Betts may not be able to demand to match Trout, but I am guessing that Betts is going to approach $360MM (10 years) to $400MM (11 years). That would be an ownership call same as NYY owners said to go get Cole at whatever cost. So if Walter said to outbid everyone for Betts, AF will get it done. If they do make the trade, I would certainly inquire as to what it would take to sign Mookie long term now. You do not get that opportunity at the trade deadline.
Here’s the problem:
With this year’s market set, Mookie knows he will get a contract in the $360-$380 million range. Why would he do that? If he opts for Free Agency someone could give him something near Trout Money!
I know it’s not a popular opinion in here but I feel like we need to make a more aggressive attempt to improve this team. Betts or preferably Lindor and Clevenger would be the moves that will improve this team. If the Dodgers are unwilling to give out long term contracts, then the years of having Bellinger, Seager and a few others will be coming to an end within the next two to three years. Winning the West 7 years in a row is cool but you know what is cooler? Winning the World Series. Lux may or may not be a superstar in the making but players like Lindor doesn’t become available very often. I doubt Lux will become a player even close to Lindor. This is a large market team and it’s time to push in some chips and at least try to win a championship. I sometimes feel that falling in love with prospects is better suited in Tampa Bay and Oakland. No recent championships there. The Cubs, Houston, Boston and Washington is where the the last four championship trophy’s sit. It’s been since 1988, It should be time to bring home a championship and not just win the West. The window appears to be closing with the current group of players in L.A. If not now, When? is very fitting for this team.
I think that’s a very popular opinion.
I agree about being aggressive, but not stupid.
The two teams with the highest payrolls in the 2010’s never won a World Series. The Yankees with the highest payroll for those 10 years never got there, Thee Dodgers were second in payroll and got there twice, but did not win.
Outspending everyone is not the way.
I think you have to respect the eye that AF has for young talent. He has been spot on with Seager, Buehler, Bellinger and Urias. If he says Lux is untradeable then I trust him that Lux will be a special player. AC you stated in your article that you think the Dodgers have enough offense to win a WS and I agree. For me we don’t have enough starting pitching to win it. My opinion of October Kersh is well documented and I think it’s way too optimistic to think both Urias and May will get to playoff studs by next year. For me, Clevinger is the key piece. I think he’s Cole light. Maybe not quite the stuff but close and he was lights out in 2nd half last year. He with Buehler would give us a top of the rotation to win the NL and go toe to toe with the Yankees in the WS. I’d try to offer a multiple player package without May but in the end I’d make an offer that Cleveland can’t refuse including May.
Good for you to at least come out and say that you would be willing to trade Dustin May if it brought Clevinger to LAD. I may not agree (and I may not disagree), but I am no GM. However, I am glad that someone actually stepped up and stated that they would be willing to trade one of the “untouchables” to improve the 2020 team.
It will take more than May, but at least that would get the conversation going. My biggest concern with that scenario is that the ONLY reason that Clevinger’s name came up was because Cleveland wants Lux in a Frankie Lindor deal, and thought that if they expanded the trade to include Clevinger that would get AF to loosen up on Lux. AF has never done that. He did not do it with Seager/Bellinger/Urias/Verdugo, so I would suspect he will not do it for Lux.
Many have pointed out what Chicago did to get Aroldis Chapman. Losing Gleyber Torres may haunt Theo, but at least he got the WS ring for the Cubs. He was willing to take a chance to win it in 2016 and was successful. I also understand the argument that Chicago would have won without Chapman, but we will never know, because THEY WON. I have read interviews with Theo where he was asked if he had second thoughts knowing how good Torres is, and he said absolutely not. He understood how good Torres was going to be, but they needed that closer in 2016, and there was none better than Chapman at that time.
IMO, the Dodgers would be a better team with Clevinger in 2020 than with May, and a better rotation for the post season. Whether that would work out long term is another argument. They would be trading 6 years of May for 3 years of Clevinger. Another thing to consider…Clevinger had an upper back strain last year. What are the chances that becomes chronic?
The Indians want to move Lindor for financial considerations. They do not have that concern with Clevinger who is projected to make $4.5MM in his 1st year of arbitration.
IMO if the Dodgers do not get Clevinger (and I think there is less than a 10% chance they will) it will be because AF is not willing to include Lux in a trade for Lindor and May if Clevinger is included. This goes back to Hamels when Philly insisted on Seager, and AF declined then, and I truly believe he will decline again. AF can only be concerned as to how to make the organization better, not whether the players he trades turn out to be All Stars. That was Theo’s take, and he has three WS championships with two teams. I have no idea what Theo would do, and I am sure he is not advising AF. But if he is truly considering trading Bryant, my guess is that he would be willing to move Lux and May in the right deal. I doubt that Lindor and Clevinger is that deal for AF.
I know AC, tough decisions. I’d give up 6 years of May for 3 of Clevenger but not 6 of Lux for.2 of Lindor. I think Lux has more potential than May to be a big star. AF has shown to bea great talent evaluator so I trust him about Lux
AC in your last sentence May and Lux could be traded in the right deal. What player would AF considering the right deal.in your opinion.
The Dodgers are in excellent position to capitalize on the Red Sox need to shed payroll. I can’t think of any other organization that has the available resources to take on that type of financial commitment.
However, while Mookie Betts would make the Dodgers a better team than an acquisition of Francisco Lindor, I am unsure whether Price’s contract merits the acquisition of Betts. Especially at the expense of stalling the developing of Julio Urias and Dustin May. Both Urias and May have higher ceilings than Price but, equally important, the last time Price pitched 200 innings was in 2016.
Apparently, the Dodgers intend to take the “training wheels” off of Urias in 2020; therefore, I would not be surprised to see Urias surpass Price in value as early as this upcoming season. If the Dodgers have to send a package centered around Alex Verdugo to land Betts and forego Price then so be it. If the Red Sox insist on shedding additional payroll the Dodgers can simply take on an expiring contract like Jackie Bradly Jr.
The Dodgers were in a position to win it all when they had kershaw in his prime, Jansen in his prime, Greinke, turner a clutch post season player but they did not have a rotation beyond those 2. They tried to win by overusing kershaw. They either couldn’t acquire a quality starter, didn’t want to, or didn’t think they needed one. Obviously that window closed. Now we have turner and kershaw with their best years behind them and Jansen.
After the next couple of years free agency decisions will have to be made on Pederson, seager, bellinger, urias etc. the window to win it all is closing fast. We will not be able to keep them all. A lot of teams have offered extensions to keep from having this issue all at once. The Dodgers have not chosen to do this apparently.
So, in their current calculations they are going to have to look down the road at how their roster will look in a few years. After this years numbers in free agency no one is likely to want to sign an extension now. Buehler seems to be open at this point. So, like every team the Dodgers are looking at cheap, controllable assets. Betts, is probably one of those they would want now like machado and Darvish but know they are not going to sign in free agency. The trick is they can’t give up anybody who they have identified as a future starter or that can’t be replaced through our farm. They know they are not going to sign Betts or lindor either one.
So they could trade seager for lindor because both have a couple of years and they probably won’t sign either anyway. Lux can step in or downs so they have that. They can’t trade may, Gray, or probably Gonsolin because they are their future unless they get one in return. They have got to maximize their opportunities in the draft and the international market but not the top tier free agents unless they can sign their own. And of course the blue light specials they are seeking relentlessly. With the dead money coming off the books and no dope fiend moves in the next couple of years the Dodgers will have great financial flexibility.
I think the idea that the Dodgers won’t sign their own players, like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, to long term contracts is based on assumptions and nothing more. Even Scott Boras said during an interview that he expects Bellinger to be a Dodger for a long time. There is no realistic way to continue to be successful without retaining your best players, no matter how good your farm system is … Dodger ownership wasn’t losing Clayton Kershaw. They’re not going to lose their young stars.
I don’t think the Indians would be interested in Seager. They are looking for young controlable talent and Seager puts them in the same position that they are trying to get out of which is two years and can’t resign the player. I agree that the offense is good enough and pitching is where we need to improve. We need to compete with NYY, NYM and Washington in a playoff series. Our current staff doesn’t do that unless two or three pitchers all have career years. Someone’s stupid is also the someone’s aggressive. Stupid sometimes pushes you over the finish line or it can make you wait two years to rebound from being stupid. I am willing to take a chance with the elite talent that has been rumored. Lets agree to be smartly stupid. The Dodgers at some point are going to have to overpay to improve this team.
Agree with everything but the final sentence.
We were all wrong, I remember a few years ago I loved Cole or Archer and see how they developed, one grew and the other stagnated, remember that those times were better Archer, we were all wrong.
What I can say is that it is true that Freidman has been wrong, like everyone else, but I trust him and The Dodgers are in the best hands.
We must also tell the truth, remember that before the teams asked Urias, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler today are Lux and May and today they are the face of the team, thanks to Freidman never bit the hook, he is a very intelligent guy.
We are living the best time of the team, the championships will arrive by themselves for the good work in all areas, the dodgers are not building a team for a championship, they are building a dynasty that will win more than one championship.
In Freidman I trust.
Finally, looking at how Freidman works he would never have traded Pedro Martinez, Konerko and Piazza and would have given an extension to Beltre.
The facts prove it.
It will only be luck that changes for the Dodgers if they don’t get major talent. Luck that one or more of their prospects will rise up the ranks to stardom. But at the same time, some of their talent will be leaving, either for more money, age related, or possible trade. The team cannot stay the same every year, so when we talk dynasty, many factors need to come together. Most will refer to a core within a dynasty. The Dodgers are not really at that point where you can point to a core. Many questions swirling around Seager, Turner, and the outfield. No set rotation that is proven outside of 2 pitchers, Buehler and CK. The West is so bad that it makes the Dodgers look better than they are. If a lucky find like Muncy can propel this team, we will not win a WS. We need a core, both offensively and defensively. Utility players are backups, not a core. This team has a lot of work to do to go head to head with the better clubs in the MLB. 3 years of frustration proves it. Hope does nothing. Talent and luck is what wins, overall, I didn’t even mention having a manager capable of making intelligent on the spot decisions that won’t jeopardize our chances.
I remember a few years back a guy named Justin Verlander. No one in here wanted him. I remember comments like stick a fork in him, he’s done. So AF went after the head case Darvish instead. That cost us a World Series. Prospect hugging isn’t going to win the World Series my friends. It pains me to hear holding onto Lux and May because we don’t want to trade them for Clevenger and Lindor. Really? So you give up a few years of control but the upside is you become favorites to win the World Series. We are a large market team. Who know’s if Lux and May would ever become Lindor and Clevenger. Doubtful. Anyway, my opinion. It’s been since 1988…………
Ah. Bill Russell was on such a roll until this post. The Darvish trade didn’t cost the team the WS. For every Verlander trade there’s a trade for Zack Grienke or Chris Archer.
It was nice having you two out of three posts Bluto. I’ll take it.
Darvish did not cost us a WS. I, in my unofficial opinion, say it was the cheating Astros who cost us a WS. Besides he was not the only one affected by them.
The Dodgers signed a couple of minor league pitchers. Justin De Fratus who has been with the organization for the last two years is back again. It is rare to see a player sign three MiLB contracts with the same team, especially if he never gets called up. He has not been in the ML since 2015. He is the epitome of a AAAA player and that makes him a favorite of mine. Can Daniel Corcino be far behind?
But the more intriguing pitcher is 28 year old hard throwing LHRP, Reymin Guduan. Guduan is a two pitch pitcher with an upper 90’s fastball, and a mid to upper 80’s slider. He was signed by Houston out of San Pedro de Macoris, DR, and was released last year by Houston because of some ” team-imposed suspension for an undisclosed disciplinary issue.” I really have no knowledge of him other than what I have read. His ML numbers are not good, but he has been a good to very good pitcher in the upper levels of MiLB. He is certainly a reclamation project and maybe Prior and Company can get him right. If so, there is another ML ready LHRP the Dodgers can trot out there.
I am certain that AF is very much aware of the disciplinary action and found it to be inconsequential in his decision to sign Reymin to a MiLB contract.
He was probably suspended for hanging out with Yadier Alvarez.
Definitely hard to resist signing a guy whose name is pronounced “good one”.
Yeah, he and Yadi are tied at the hip.
Reality is often not accepted by fans in the sporting world. All the complaints about the large contracts and the labeling as ‘stupid’, the teams that do go out and buy major talent, doesn’t address the fact that they just bought ‘major talent’, and not some prospect or player that could have a breakout year. These players are proven winners at the top of their game. AJ Pollock, our star FA signing, is not one of these. Sorry to pick you out, AJ, but this is what you get if you are of the mindset of AF dipping his toe into the reality of the FA market, today. You don’t get the talent if you don’t pay for it in the FA market. So, we are stuck with the mindset of AF and the farm. We will win the division again, I think, and be talking about this perhaps for some years to come without any resolution and a WS win. Mark will continue to defend what is obvious, but ignore what is not so obvious, and repeat his mantra on AF. How boring!
I continue to circle back to the comments by AF and Doc that the Dodgers were seeking elite talent and this would be the off season where we would see the biggest roster turnover, only to see the addition of Trienen to this point. He could be huge, but he’ll be a crapshoot coming off a rather down year.
The Dodgers are loaded and I can see Seager having a big year along with Cody. Lux, while considered a “lock” to be a great player is unproven at the big league level. JT figures to be his consistent and reliable self and Muncy will be terrific. We’ll be fine offensively, but SP is a concern.
It seems reasonable to assume we’ll see some regression from CK. Buehler is a stud and we all know what Maeda will be…some good outings and some outings where he can’t get out of the 4th inning.
May, Gonsolin and Urias have the potential to be good to great players, but investing 40% of your starting rotation on two of those three pitchers with limited starting experience at the ML level is concerning. Perhaps AF will add another veteran SP but with 37 days until pitchers and catchers report, I have serious doubt.
Jeff whom would you have had him sign? Most of these long term big money contracts have not worked out Would you have signed Machado or Harper from last year?