Some Random Thoughts on the Past Season and the 2020 Season

This article has 50 Comments

1. Regarding Joc Pederson, I read somewhere a trade proposal of Kyle Schwarber to the Yankees for Miguel Angular and Deivi Garcia. I would like that package for Pederson. I think the Yankees would be getting a better deal.

2. It doesn’t matter anything else, neither the numbers, nor the MVP or Cy Young awards, or how many rookies debut this season, the only thing that really matters at this point is to see Dodgers champions!
   By the way, which city-team will be most desperate for a championship?
   Dodgers?
   Yankees?
   Cardinals?
   SD, COL, ARI, BAL and several other teams do not count them since they are not in the level to win the world series…
   I say Dodgers!!

3. ” By the way, which city-team will be most desperate for a championship? ”

   I’d guess it would be the team that has committed nearly $700 million to 2 players for the about next decade.

   1. NY?
      SD?
      PHI?

      1. Mmmm since only NYY qualifies with 2 at $700 million then …………..

         1. I had completely forgotten about Stanton, because he was not signed by NY, although they will have to pay for it!

         2. For 2020 thru the contract.

            NYY’s obligations for Stanton $203MM, and Cole $324MM= $527MM.

            LAA’s obligations for Trout $390.5MM and Rendon $245MM = $635.5MM.

            Total contracts – Cole and Stanton $649MM; Trout and Rendon $671.5MM.

4. Absolutely some of the best trades are the ones you don’t make. Andrew Friedman seems to make deals, other than Yordan Alvarez, that tend to keep the most impactful prospects in the Dodgers system. They usually end up helping the Dodgers during the season or form the foundation for the current team.

   I can see a scenario where the Dodgers do not make any significant trades moving forward. This is a very good team as it stands now. That would mean a crowded outfield heading into the 2020 season with AJ Pollock, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo , Chris Taylor and Matt Beatty competing for at bats. Not to mention, Kiki Hernandez.

   I agree with OC Register writer Bill Plunkett, there is no way that Gavin Lux ends up playing any outfield.

   Maybe the outfield is too crowded. Logic would seem to dictate a trade or two, but who knows? I think most people think Joc is the most likely to be traded (final year before free agency, value), but 36 homeruns are hard to replace. Plus he fits nicely with the current mix and the fans really like Joc and he hits big homeruns. Yah, I know, the fans don’t matter. But the big homeruns do.

   I think you’re right about taking a flyer on Nelson or Walker. Might catch lightning in a bottle.

   It’s time to move on from the Mookie Betts, Mike Clevinger and Francisco Lindor speculation. The only move that might make sense is Kris Bryant. He does fit the big right handed bat box.

   I remember the Jim Sundberg pursuit. Yah, that would have been a terrible trade. Would have cost the Dodgers the 1988 title. Just like Pedro Martinez and later, Paul Konerko, then Mike Piazza trades (okay, Gary Sheffield was a talent, but Piazza was the face of the franchise). You could make a good case that bad trades are the reason the Dodgers haven’t won since 1988.

   Good write-up today.

   1. Adrian Beltre to leave in free agency was another horrible blunder. And the less remembered trade of John Wetteland for Eric Davis and Kip Gross. After leaving the Dodgers Wetteland amassed 329 saves over the next nice seasons

5. I look forward to a mid-season return for Hill. I have always liked Whit Merrifield, but what would that mean for Lux?

6. A lot of work went into that write-up, 2D2, and it was very interesting reading and some of it thought-provoking. I agree with all of your 2019 memorable moments. I would like to add one from myself. It is a sad one, one that is seared in my mind and I can not get the image that you posted on the blog out of it. The good thing about it that I hope it gives Clayton a goal to shoot for in 2020 and I think his determination and work ethic will succeed.

   1. I know many believe Clayton is over the hill (too many pitches from that HOF arm), but I think he can have a bounce back year (bounce back for him). I do not believe he will ever develop that change, but I think he has come to the realization that he just cannot sit back and intimidate anymore, and that he has to become more strategic. He is smart, and he was embarrassed last October. I think LAD gets two pitchers in top 5 CY next year with Buehler and Kersh. I am putting on my rose colored glasses and drinking from my cup that is 3/4 full, and staying with that prediction. Clayton will be 32 this year, and David Price was 32 when he got that poor post season performance off his back in 2018.

      1. I’m drinking from the same cup you are AC! I believe Kershaw can and will rebound.

         DBM – that image remains etched in my mind as well. It was certainly the most “painful” memory from this past season.

         1. Harvey Wallbangers?

7. I absolutely understand the fascination with Whit Merrifield, but there is no possible way the Dodgers will ever get him. He is the most underpaid All Star in the game (only considering those that have contracts or are arbitration eligible). At $4MM AAV for the next three years and then a $6.5MM option in 2023, he is not going anywhere unless some team is willing to rebuild the Royals with that single trade. Otherwise, the new ownership is going to hold onto him as tight as they can. Maybe some other team will overpay, but not AF, and I agree with SCDodgerFan that Whit has the experience, but is he really that big of a difference maker over Gavin Lux (who they would insist on in any trade).

   The curse of the Dodgers is that the farm team has been so productive at the top, that every team wants the Dodgers elite prospects, and to accept the second tier is such a downfall for the trading team, that they will (and have) accepted players in trades the Dodgers could have matched but did not. Of course everyone likes to blame AF for the trades that were not made where AF could have offered a better deal, but NOBODY has any idea if he ever had the opportunity. When you have your sights set on Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Lux, May…the next tier even though better than what they received is just not good enough from the Dodgers. What other team can boast 106 wins even though having 9 rookies (all drafted by the Dodgers) play . And all but Verdugo were drafted under the AF umbrella. 2D2, you forgot to include Josh Sborz. While not that effective, he was still a rookie that did make his debut last year. Who knows maybe that experience will propel him to a bigger and better 2020.

   The other problem AF seems to face is that in almost every trade he has generated, he seemingly comes way out on top. Who wants to be the next team to give up 4 veterans for 2 elite prospects that are now on the probable untouchable list.

   While I agree that the Dodgers have too many OF, I still cannot see AF moving Joc. It may have been a juiced ball, but he was still at the top of the HR list with 36. Joc platooned with AJ/Kike’/CT3, is a better offensive and defensive OF than any FA LF or OF available via trade outside of Mookie Betts. I still think there will be trades, just not the blockbuster many wanted.

   As far as FA, LAD may still look at, I would like to see AF take a chance on Taijuan Walker. He pitched relatively well for AZ in 2017, and pitched 169.2 innings as a 22 year old. He reminds me of Jeff Samardzija. Everything is going well, and then there is that one big inning. I think he could become a good reliever with his FB. Pick a secondary pitch and pitch to your strengths for 1 inning. He is also someone who can eat innings if the starter falters. I like Ross Stripling in the rotation, so someone like Walker could be needed as a long man and someone who can come in and get that 1 inning with his fastball.

   If I am going for a FA reliever, I am sticking with Will Harris over Derek Law.

   And yes I do remember Larry Jaster. I tore up his baseball card after the 1966 season.

   Finally, I cannot see the interest in Matthew Boyd. He has never been an elite pitcher (never been below a 4.3 ERA). He has never been a swing and miss type pitcher until last year, and even then he led the AL in giving up 39 HRs. I think I will rely on Maeda/Strip/Urias/May/Gonsolin.

   2D2 a great column for many of us to chew on.

8. Correction. It was the image of Clayton sitting in the dugout all alone after the game that AC posted on his blog that brings a tear to my eyes. Happy New Year all.

9. On a totally unrelated subject, I am attaching a link to a great story about teams “tanking”.
   https://sports.yahoo.com/top-25-baseball-stories-decade-180035661.html

   A few great points:
   1 – The Cubs and Astros essentially tanked with little or no competition. Last season, 4 teams lost 100 games and 10 lost 90. There is more competition to stock up with draft picks and prospects making it more difficult to do.
   2 – Baseball has changed the international signing bonus rules since the Cubs and ‘Stros did what they did – again, harder to replicate their results.
   3 – If 10 of 30 teams are tanking, fans will simply stop watching. Baseball attendance is down 5 years in a row.
   4 – Short term, this might not hurt as most teams’ revenue isn’t directly related to actual attendance at games, but long term, it could kill baseball.

   Baseball has to change the equation. I suggest:
   1 – Penalizing teams who tank. Baseball should consider revising what it does to pay so-called “small market” teams, many of which are in large markets but don’t draw well or just don’t want to spend money. Teams that make no effort to compete should not share in the profits with teams that do.
   2 – Another way to penalize teams that essentially try to lose is to deprive them of their prize – draft picks.
   3 – Modify both the “competitive balance tax” and the draft “slotting” system to allow teams to pay for players that they want.
   4 – Modify the CBA so that younger players get compensated sooner and aren’t interesting to teams seeking free agent help (due to age) by the time that they are finally free agents.

   I am concerned about the long term health of the game. Having 1/3 of the teams trying to loose stinks. People will simply stop watching and the game will die. Something has to be done about this.

   1. Would a lottery system help? That way teams that “tank” are not guaranteed to get the top picks, thereby eliminating some of the motivation to lose.

   2. Baseball should also increase the “salary floor”.

      I like the lottery idea.

10. Since the title of today’s blog/post is random thoughts, I have a random thought. I’ve read on other websites opinion pieces about the dodgers bullpen and those authors include Adam Kolarek as a lock for the Dodgers bullpen. Why would the Dodgers want Kolerak to take up a roster spot with the new 3 batter minimum rule? Yes the rule also says a pitcher could come in to get the final out of the inning, but still why keep Kolerak? He is a LOOGY.

    I’m still waiting for Will Harris and Ken Giles. I’ll be a happy camper if that is all Friedman does between now and opening day.

11. Part of the problem we are facing is that we signed the wrong right hand hitter this past offseason. I recall many insiders linking DJ LeMahieu to the Dodgers after the 2018 season, predicting a potential breakout season with the bat. Perhaps, LeMahieu was victimized by a predisposition that Rockies’ hitters become liabilities away from Coors field; however, LeMahieu’s offensive skillset did not rely extensively on the long ball. In short, LeMahieu ended up having the type of breakout season some predicted, whereas AJ Pollock lived up to his oft injured reputation.

    At the time the Dodgers signed Pollock we were unsure whether Alex Verdugo deserved an everyday role out of the gate. This year the Dodgers pursued Anthony Rendon with a different purpose in mind, find a suitable longterm replacement for Justin Turner. The Dodgers would have been a superior team with Rendon at the hot corner, however, that would have derailed Lux’s development as an everyday infielder. While I do not claim that the Dodgers are better off without Rendon, I believe giving Lux a chance to develop at the major league level could end up being a blessing in disguise. The Dodgers need to give Gavin a long leash at second base. As a prospect, he is going to experience ups and downs. The problem is that fans want instant gratification. I say let the kid play and try to improve elsewhere.

    Looking elsewhere is where the problem lies. As AC alluded, the Dodgers problem has been the success rate of their prospects. Even if the mid-tier prospects that the Dodgers may offer provide equal or greater value than organizations competing to acquire the same player, the public relations ramifications of accepting anything less than the opposing team’s top prospects are great. Francisco Lindor projects to be the top short stop in the sport and coming away with anything less than the top prospect(s) from the organization acquiring Lindor would be understandably unacceptable. Same goes for Mookie Betts. This is why I also believe Betts and Lindor will likely end up starting the season with their respective teams. Of course, unless the Dodgers decide to include Lux in any of those packages.

    At this point, the Dodgers are better off waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, when the dynamics of teams no longer in contention change. As comprised, I believe this team is good enough to compete but may lack the depth in the rotation that it has boasted in the past to make a deep playoff run. Waiting until the trade deadline should give the Dodgers a chance to see whether any of our young pitchers are up to the task. Would you be surprised if Julio Urias has a breakout season and ends up settling into a co-ace role? Even if he ends up settling as a mid-rotation pitcher, Urias along with Dustin May are capable of holding their own until we are able to bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline. Who knows, maybe the Astros end up making someone like George Springer who is destined to become a free agent after the season; perhaps, the Astros may choose to make Carlos Correa available; maybe even Manny Machado if the Padres fail to compete and their ownership group decides to pull the plug on AJ Preller and their current team building experiment; among others. The point is that the Dodgers are likely to have more opportunities than what is out there at this point of the offseason. Unless, the Red Sox become more desperate to dump salary. The Dodgers are in a good spot to exploit the market, there is no need to be hasty.

    1. Good comments, Dodgfan.

    2. Winer, Winner Chicken Dinner!

    3. Knowing the Dodgers needed a RH bat and possibly in the OF, I was prepared to write a column on potentially looking to Houston for George Springer. However after the stealing signs fiasco, I was wondering how many hits (especially in the WS) did Springer get while knowing what pitch was coming. Then after research, Springer was a more productive hitter in both 2017 and 2019 away from Minute Maid Park. His 2018 was not that productive home or away. If at the trade deadline, the Dodgers are still in need of a RH bat and Houston is looking to sell, maybe Springer becomes a trade candidate. It does not help with the need for a top of the rotation pitcher, but we have no idea whether a top pitcher or a RH bat is more of a need until that time. Maybe both. Maybe neither. That is why they play the games.

    4. AC wanted DJLM and boy was he right, statistically.

       Would he have done as well in LA? I don’t think so, but he might have been pretty dang good.

       I never got the Pollock thing, but maybe he will win the MVP is 2020 and shut me up!

       1. If LA had gotten DJLM last year, what would that mean for Lux going forward? I look for Lux value to keep rising while DJLM may hold value for a while, but will begin to lose value.

          1. Nobody expected Lux to take off like he did and DJLM signed for two years. It would have worked.

             1. Other than the fact that DJLM played a lot of first base for the Yankees. Don’t get me wrong, I would have loved to have the Dodgers sign DJLM. However, my thoughts were always that he would exclusively been a second baseman. I would not have been as enamored with signing him if he was going to be the Dodgers first baseman.

             2. He went to 1B when Didi came back and Gleyber went to 2B. That would not have happened in LA.

12. Unless there is a steal out there I see the Dodgers standing pat on the trade front. Maybe still seeking bullpen upgrades. If the price is right maybe walker or Sanchez. Sanchez is a flat out stud when healthy and walker is good also. Must be real health issues or too costly or these 2 would have signed.

    Looking forward to see what may, urias, Gonsolin can do on the pitching front. If Treinen can bounce back our bp is on the rise as he is a true setup man. Looking forward to watching lux for a full season.

    I hate to alibi for kershaw but the first ball the nats hit to get him back on his heels should have been caught by turner. I really feel for Kershaw and his post season woes. You cannot count on him but you sure root for him to catch a break in post season.

    I wish the team would quit talking in every interview that they got to win the big one. Everybody knows that is understood. I think that portrays a bit of arrogance to other teams. We are an underdog this year with the Yankees the target. Lay low and go for the jugular. Come into the season hungry ready to prove something.

13. Fangraphs ZIPS Projections has this for Gavin Lux:

    .267 BA/.331 OB%/21 HR/79 RBI/25 DBL/8 TPL/2.9 WAR

    I’ll take that… but I have a sneaking feeling he will be better… like 4 WAR (who in the hell is Francisco Lindor).

14. Actually Mark, I was also all over the DJLM thing last year. He probably wouldn’t have matched the stats he put up in NY, but only because of the ballpark factor. AL East ballparks a lot more hitter friendly than those in the NL West. However, I also believe that playing half a season in Coors makes it more difficult for the Rockies players to hit when they’re on the road. When those same players get moved to a “normal” city they play all of their games (except those that they play in Colorado) in a “normal” hitting environment, and adapt accordingly. Think about what happens to the Dodgers hitters after playing a series in Colorado.

    Those ZIPS projections for Lux would satisfy me as well. And yes, I also believe he could improve upon that. Hard to predict what a 22 year old with a little added experience and maturity might do.

    I was all in on doing a deal for Lindor, but never at the cost of Lux. I had hoped that a deal could be worked out that kept both Lux and Seager in LA.

    1. Well, here we are:

       Opening Day 2020:

       1. Verdugo RF
       2. Seager SS
       3. Bellinger CF
       4. Muncy 1B
       5. Turner 3B
       6. Pederson LF
       7. Lux 2B
       8. Smith C
       9. Kershaw P

15. Mark
    1. Joc
    2. Turner
    3. Bellinger
    4. Muncy
    5. Seager
    6. Smith
    7. Verdugo
    8. Lux
    9. Buehler

    Same manager batted joc leadoff and he is just as smart as he was last year. Seager without improvement(hopefully will) has very little plate discipline and may find another injury. Smith moves up due to lefties. Verdugo and lux still waiting their turn but performance can change that. Your probably right with kershaw but I am pulling for buehler. The sentiment for kershaw on opening day will probably win out.

16. Lux
    Seager
    Betts
    Bellinger
    JT
    Muncy
    Joc
    Smith
    Buehler

    1. Muncy
       Betts
       Bellinger
       JT
       Joc
       Seager
       Smith
       Lux

17. 2D2
    Bumsrap
    AC
    MT
    DC
    Blade
    59
    Cassidy
    Eric

    The rest are utilitymen and pitchers.

    1. I’ll guess Bum is in LF and sits against lefties. In which case, I’ll platoon with him

       1. Exactly!

    2. The day you bat clean-up will be the day I resign as manager.

    3. You might want to put 59 or DodgerBlueMom in the lead off spot and drop me down the lineup a bit. I can’t even run to the bathroom any more these days.

18. Does anyone remember Trevor Oaks, pitcher and a great piano player? How is he doing these days? Always liked him and was sorry he left the Dodgers.

    1. Trevor Oaks attended Woodcrest Christian High School in Riverside, California. That’s the school where I was an assistant coach for several years, albeit just prior to Trevor starting school there. I did coach his older sister in Mock Trial one year.

       Trevor was picked up off waivers by the SF Giants recently. I’m told he has fully recovered from his injuries and that he has a shot at sticking with the big club this year. More than likely he’ll start the year in AAA, but even though it is the hated ones, I hope he get one more chance.

       He is a remarkable young man in so many different ways. The type of young man you hoped your daughter would marry. LIke you, I was saddened when he was traded to the Royals, although I understand from a baseball standpoint why the Dodgers made the trade. At the time, the need for Scott Alexander was greater than keeping Trevor.

       1. Thank you 2D2. I thought he seemed like a very nice young man. I loved the scene in the clubhouse when he played the piano. Wish him the very best and wish we still had him.
          And p.s., I can not run anymore either. As a rh batter, used to put a neat bunt down the first baseline when I was a wee bit younger though, lol.

19. Come on guys, let’s do this right.
    Betts
    Lindor
    Arenado
    Belli
    Bryant
    Muncy
    Smith
    Lux
    Clevinger

    1. As a season ticket holder I might go to every game if that was the lineup!

       1. If that was the lineup you wouldn’t be able to afford season tickets any longer. 🙂

          1. Where’s Trout? On the bench?

             1. Who’s on first!

             2. I was just using guys whose names have been mentioned in trade rumors. Mr. Trout isn’t going anywhere.

Comments are closed.