I cannot see the Dodgers signing Josh Donaldson. He reportedly has two pending four year deals (Twins and Washington). But the Braves have right of last refusal (meaning that is where he wants to play), but they are going to need to guarantee that 4th year, which they are contemplating right now. There is no reason for the Dodgers to continue to chase their tails here. JT is a quality 3B, and the infield can stay intact, and Lux can have a legit showcase. I say that also believing that LAD will not land Frankie Lindor. I think Mookie Betts is a more realistic option, even if that is just as remote.
I still believe the biggest need for the Dodgers is a #2 starting pitcher to lodge between Buehler and Kershaw. Now that Cole and Strasburg have signed, I do not know who that will be. With Wheeler, Keuchel, Bumgarner, and Ryu all signed, the choices are the highest rated FA starting pitcher, Alex Wood for a pillow contract, or through trade. Alex is not the answer, thus only a trade can bring in a quality proven starter.
Who might these top of the rotation potentially available starting pitchers be? I am going to exclude all of the NL West teams because they will do nothing to help LAD. AZ may trade Robbie Ray, but not to the Dodgers. I do not see Colorado moving German Marquez or Jon Gray, and especially not to the LAD.
NL Central:
St. Louis is a contender who is not going to move any of the starters much less any of their top three, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, or Dakota Hudson.
Chicago Cubs – Kyle Hendricks just signed a four year extension for little dollars, and Chicago is not going to trade him. A declining Jon Lester or Jose Quintana? Pass. An overpriced Yu Darvish? Been there done that.
Cincinnati? They believe they will contend and are trying to build a rotation, not sell. They are not moving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, or Trevor Bauer. Who wants Tyler Mahle? Raise a hand. If out of contention, the Reds can be revisited at trade deadline.
Milwaukee – Who? They are always in a rebuilding mode for starting pitchers. Brandon Woodruff is the only pitcher in their arsenal who could break the Dodgers rotation, and he is going nowhere.
Pittsburgh – Who? Joe Musgrave? Pass. Chris Archer? Pass. Chris Archer may be an exceptional citizen, but he is no longer a good pitcher. He could not break the current LAD rotation.
NL East:
Washington – They are not moving any of their top three; Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin.
Philadelphia – They are contenders and after signing Zach Wheeler they believe they are closer. They are not moving Aaron Nola. Who wants Jake Arrieta or Zach Eflin or Nick Piveta? They are not an upgrade over the Dodgers starters.
NYM – They also believe they are contending. Jacob deGrom, Thor, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, and Steven Matz. The best chance the Dodgers have of getting anyone other than deGrom is at the trade deadline. A better opportunity for relievers if LAD is willing to do an overpay for Edwin Diaz or Seth Lugo.
Atlanta – They are looking to add Josh Donaldson (or Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant), to solidify their lineup, so they are not about to move any of Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz, or Cole Hamels. They would like to add a reliable 5th not trade one of their top 4. If the Dodgers want Sean Newcomb or Kyle Wright, I am sure both could be available, but it would not be an improvement in the Dodgers rotation in 2020. Could be interesting reliever candidates.
Marlins – Their best is Caleb Smith, and he is not an improvement over any of the potential LAD starters. Jose Urena? Maybe for relief.
AL East:
NYY – With Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, the Yankees have a formidable one-two punch. James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are not special but are capable of special games. But IMO no more so than Maeda, Urias, May, Stripling, or Gonsolin. They are nearly $50MM above the CBT threshold and are desperately trying to move JA Happ. I would take a chance on Happ if they included Deivi Garcia, but not without Garcia. No team should help NYY by taking Happ without an extreme overpay.
Boston – David Price? Not without Mookie Betts coming to LA and Pollock going to Boston, plus money coming from Boston to defray some of Price’s salary. Chris Sale has cemented himself in Boston with that contract. No on Nathan Eovaldi. I would consider Eduardo Rodriguez, but again he is not a #2.
Toronto – They are building a rotation, not selling.
Tampa Bay – Tyler Glasnow? Blake Snell? Not happening. Charlie Morton? I would gladly add Morton, but he has indicated that he would retire rather than accept a trade. But it would be worth testing his mettle with this demand.
Baltimore – Outside of John Means, who may be a one year wonder, Baltimore does not have any starting pitching the Dodgers should consider.
AL Central:
Cleveland – Mike Clevinger would be an upgrade, but I would disagree that he is a better #2 than is Kershaw. Okay, maybe #2A and #2B. I know some disagree, but AF should absolutely walk away if Cleveland insists on Lux and/or May even with Lindor. I know that there will be those that will blame somebody (AF, Kasten, Mark Walter…) but I cannot see why Cleveland would trade Clevinger without an extreme overpay and AF has never done that. They are not moving Shane Bieber. Carlos Carrasco? Well past his prime. Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko may someday be very good pitchers but not good enough this year.
Detroit – Matthew Boyd may be a decent pitcher, but he is barely at the level of Kenta Maeda much less Clayton Kershaw.
Chicago and Minnesota – Both believe they are contenders and will not be trading any of their rotation that they are trying to build.
KC – I would only consider 23 year old Brad Keller but only as a future prospect who doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as any of May, Gonsolin, Urias, Gray. KC would move Danny Duffy and AF should run as far as he can. KC will try to rebuild with Keller not trade him.
AL West:
Houston – As I previously mentioned, depending on what the punishment is for their cheating, Zack Greinke may be available, and I do not believe he would say no if he were traded to LAD. At $24MM/year for two years, he should more than match that value. Houston is well above the CBT threshold and again depending on the punishment may be willing to move Greinke. Two years of Greinke at $24MM each is better than Verlander at $33MM/year for two years.
LAA, Texas, and Oakland – All three believe they are contenders and will not be trading any of their rotation that they are trying to build. All three teams are adding starters, and only Texas seems to have anyone of interest. AF may wait for the trade deadline to see who might be available from Texas.
Seattle – I might inquire about Marco Gonzalez, but it would be a stretch to call him a #2. At 27 and 203 IP, he is more of a mid-rotation starter. But being pre-arbitration and controlled for four years, Seattle is not likely to move him. He is exactly who they want to build around. Overall, they are trying for an upgrade by revisiting Taijuan Walker.
I know some of you believe that AF should have offered Cole $400MM, but you need to get past believing that AF blew it. I said Cole was a NYY last year, and nothing has changed. Strasburg was staying in Washington, and Wheeler’s wife wanted the east coast. MadBum wanted his horse ranch in AZ. The only FA starting pitcher that the Dodgers had a chance at was Ryu, but not at four years/$80MM.
I know we fans are frustrated, but so is AF. When other teams are demanding Gavin Lux and Dustin May what is AF supposed to do? I know, I know. It is his job to figure something out. Above are the potential pitchers and most are not available, so who would you trade Lux and/or May for? Greinke? Clevinger? Price? Marco Gonzalez? Matthew Boyd? Caleb Smith? John Means? Brad Keller?
Now that those foolish cheap Dodgers did not offer Gerrit Cole $400MM right out the gate, who will be LAD #2? I still say it will be an angry and embarrassed Clayton Kershaw. I think the best option might be to simply wait until the trade deadline and to see what rental may be available. Concentrate on a RH bat and relievers before ST. Now that Shaggy has been released, that opens a spot. Will Harris? Ken Giles?
If a starting pitcher is added before ST, he may be a back of the rotation innings eater to save IP for the youngsters, and someone who could possibly shift to relief for the second half. AF is not going to trade the two players the trading teams want…Gavin Lux and Dustin May, unless they get an extreme overpay.
Jeff,
I think you nailed it as to options for the Dodgers rotation. There really aren’t many upgrades out there which is a tribute to the quality of the rotation. As it stands, the Dodgers rotation is TOP 10 in all of baseball and could be TOP 3, depending upon performance.
I think where you missed it is who the #2 will be. Striker Buehler will be the #2 with Clayton being the #1… at least at the start of the season. Unless he is injured, Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound on Opening Day at Dodger Stadium, March 26th.
I think this is his last year as the Ace and I hope he can evolve and be even better than last year. Fewer first-pitch strikes and maybe he can finally learn a changeup. I think in 2021, Julio Urias may well be the #2.
Depending upon how the season goes, there could be some good starting pitching otions available at the Trade Dedline.
Not sure Greinke is a #2 anymore….
He’s been working on that change for years. I wouldn’t hold my breathe. There’s a better chance that some velo returns and that he doesn’t give out Big Flies like a food sample worker at Costco.
Dodger Digest was suggesting the Dodgers take a chance on Jimmy Nelson, saying that he has #2 stuff. Given he was non tendered by the Brewers gives me pause. AF didn’t resign Ryu ,to some extent, because of possible injury concerns. Should the Dodgers take a chance given that the Brewers, who know Nelson better, let him go?
I think Jimmy Nelson could be a nice piece in the bullpen (not high leverage) but I have heard that he wants to start and that is why Milwaukee parted ways with him. He has a career 4.22 ERA and I can’t see him suddenly getting better after his loss of velocity.
AC, I agree with you on almost everything, as the rotation stands today I would go with the 5 the Dodgers pick coming out of spring training. I also agree with you on the chances of the Dodgers making a trade for Lindor or Betts and I don´t see Castellanos in left unless the Dodgers can move Pollock and I don´t see that happening.
I can think of two trades that could get the Dodgers the RH bat they need. The Dodgers could check with the Cubs and see how realistic they are on moving Bryant, if they are and want to make a fair trade that is good for both teams (
probability not) than the Dodgers could play Bryant in left field and keep Turner at third for this season.This trade most likely falls in with the Lindor and Betts trades. I would also check with Baltimore on a trade involving Muncy and RH bat Tim Mancini.
I’d rather have Verlander at 33 than Grienke at 24. I would take a flier on Archer or Tijuan Walker, both still have good stuff and are high upside types.
The biggest thing in my mind is the trouble Roberts will have managing these kids and his tendency for a quick hook resulting in bullpen over use.
ESPN ranked rotations recently and they had the Dodgers coming in 10th. Of course, I think this is really low and it was a “insider” article, so I didn’t have access to read who was in front of them. But, I understand their reluctance to give Urias and May high projections after not being in the rotation last year. The bottom line for me is to try to answer the simple question…
Is Urias, May and Gonsolin going to out produce Ryu and Hill? If the answer is yes, than I think the staff will be tops in the NL. If the answer is no, then we might fall a bit, but we would still have a chance to be better in the post-season. After all, I don’t think Hill’s 2.2 inning performance will be hard to top.
Young pitchers are very unpredictable. Ramon Martinez put up his best year as a 22 year old. Chan Ho Park was 14-8 as a 24 year old and that year looked very comparable to Ryu’s season last year. Darren Dreifort a number 2 overall pick with really nasty stuff never put it all together. You never know what you have, but Urias, May and Gonsolin all had some success last year and looked as good, or better than Ramon, Chan Ho and Darren in limited action last year. Gray put up numbers rarely seen from a 21 year old in his first pass across three Minor League levels. I don’t think it’s out of the question to see him next year, but will he keep dominating at the highest level? This is the biggest haul of young arms that I’ve ever seen, so I can see why the Dodgers are reluctant to block them. But, is that how you build a rotation for World Series aspirations? Signing a high upside arm will help reduce some risk in a big way.
As far as the “Older” or returning pieces go, I don’t see a steep decline from Kershaw. He’s smart and he works as hard as just about anyone. I can see him having a better year next year just as easily as a worse year. Bueller will be better next year. He had a slow walk Spring at it showed at the beginning of the season. I think all of our guys should be setup of a normal Spring. Kenta is steady if anything, so we can expect similar results this year. Stripling is an option, but he doesn’t have great stuff like the others.
When it’s all said and done, I think the rotation will be on top of the NL. There may be some bumps in the road and the depth isn’t quite as deep, but the talent is there.
My thinking is in lockstep with yours AC, as usual. I’ve also mentioned Greinke with regard to the Astros potential penalties and would love to have him back here. I’ve always been a huge fan of his – every part of his game.
The one area where I might disagree slightly with you is Colorado’s supposed reluctance to trade with an NL West rival. If they’re being honest with themselves, they are not going to contend over the next few seasons, so if AF would give them some really good pieces they could build on (not on the Lux/May level), I think they should seriously consider moving one of their starters if the Dodgers call.
The D-Bags got the Astros 3rd, 4th, 5th and 22nd ranked prospects including 2 pitchers. So, you’re not gonna get him for a box of peanuts. Just for comparison’s sake. Right now that would look like Ruiz, Gray, Downs and Carillo. Of course, we would have less control, 2 years vs 2.5 so maybe take Downs out of the deal?
If Manfred comes down as hard as many believe on the Astros, they may just be looking for a salary dump. It might take less than you think. Of course, this might just be wishful thinking on my part.
My money says a Greinke reunion isn’t going to happen. The Astros don’t look like they’re having a fire sale judging from their off-season activity so far, and they already lost Miley and Cole and they still have a Championship caliber lineup. To think they’re gonna send Greinke to the Dodgers on a discount after giving up so much to get him is a slim to none. I see a fire sale coming, but not this year.
Walker Buehler is our ace. Walker Buehler started Game 1 vs Washington and dominated. Walker Buehler started Game 5 vs Washington and dominated. Clayton Kershaw was his usual October self in Game 2, and flat out failed in the 8th inning of game 5, resulting in a 7 ERA during last season’s playoffs. That is not ace material whatsoever. Walker Buehler has supplanted Kershaw as our ace, and will deservingly start on March 26 vs SF (barring injury).
I said this the other day as well, and AC eloquently stated it today: now that there’s no #1/#2 type starter available as a free agent, there’s no need for us to sign a 4/5. Go with what we have, which is still better than most and better than anyone in our division. Come July, let’s hope the Mets suck and that deGrom , Thor, etc are there for the taking. At that point, we can make our July splash and get our co ace.
I think it’ll be exciting to see what Urias and May can do as starters for the first few months of the year. By July, we’ll know what we need. And who knows, it might be that we need a closer more than we need a #2!!
Are you correct Buehler is the Ace.
Kershaw is very important to get to play in October, without CK there is no October.
Once in October you should open only one game and that out of respect for your career.
The Dodgers could have Lindor, Betts, Trout, etc. but if Kershaw starts two games we won’t win, it’s sad but that’s the way it is.
Every year I am full of hope and I tell myself now if Kershaw will play in October like a real horse, the bad games are left behind now the good games come and do not arrive.
First of all, I agree with nearly everything that you have written. The reason that the market was so strong for starting pitchers this off-season is that ace or near ace quality pitching is a scarce commodity and Cole is a true ace and Strasburg is an ace or close. He has ace quality stuff even if the results aren’t always there. I think that was the buzz around Wheeler – the numbers haven’t shown it but his stuff is great and he has the potential upside of an ace. Ryu had ace results in the last 1 1/2 seasons but his age and health made a 4 year commitment iffy.
You can frame it any way that you want to but the Dodgers’ starting rotation this year will be weaker than last year’s version was, at least at the start of the season. 2019’s #5 (Maeda) becomes defacto #3. I expect that Stripling will be in the rotation at the beginning of the season – he knows how to pitch as a major league starter and he will be #4 or 5, to be replaced later in the season. They have committed to Urias as a starter this year so he’s the other guy. But he threw 78 innings last year and no matter what Mark says he won’t pitch 170 this year. The Dodgers are believers in the Verducci effect (or something similar)so they will monitor his innings closely this year. Buehler’s 1st full season in MLB resulted in only 137 IP. I expect that Urias will throw a similar number in 2020.
So the Dodgers will have 2 ace quality starters at the top of the rotation, Maeda who famously fades down the stretch and will make up 2 slots in the rotation with some combination of Urias, May, Stripling and Gonsolin, at least until the deadline.
Kershaw is still an ace. He made more starts last season (28) than in any year since 2015. His numbers (16 – 5, 3.03, 1.04 WHIP, 189K in 178 IP) are ace quality and are only bad by his Hall of Fame standards.
There is no pitcher other than Cole or Strasburg who would have a chance of bettering numbers like that.
David Price only becomes a Dodger if part of a deal for Betts and the Dodgers take on salary in lieu of sending as many prospects to the Bosox. Last year Price was 7 – 5, 4.28 with a 1.314 WHIP. His last full season (2018) he was 16 – 7, 3.58 with a WHIP of 1.142. His FIP was over 4.00. He will be 34 at the start of the 2020 season. He might be an OK #3, but maybe not, and he is currently owed another $96 MM and 3 more seasons. I would rather have had Ryu for 4 years and $80 MM than Price for 3 years and $96 MM.
Interestingly, the Giants (Cueto), Dbacks (Ray) and Rox (Gray) all have pitchers that they may want to move. I agree with you about the difficulty of trading in the division, but I suspect that Zaidi would trade to the Dodgers. Cueto is owed 2 years, $43.7 MM with an option for 2022 vs. a buy-out of $5MM. I have no idea if he has anything left but he would be a potential option I think. He is old, infirm and expensive – I don’t expect a trade now but at the deadline he would be interesting if he shows he has anything left.
No way the ‘Stros trade Greinke – they obtained him last year because they knew they weren’t going to keep Cole past 2019.
This was the reason that the Dodgers needed to sign an ace or near ace this off-season. They didn’t so now it’s on to Plan B.
If there ever was a rotation that could benefit from 6 pitchers, this is the year.
I would like to have Archer in the pen and maybe in the rotation through May.
I agree 100, and if were stuck with the pitchers we have it wouldnt be so bad, I think urias deserves a chance to start again thinking he will be clutch, any thoughts?
Nice piece AC.
You have come to the conclusion that I suggested just after our defeat to the Nats. See how May, Gonsolin and Urias get on in the 1st half, and add accordingly at the Trade Deadline.
There is absolutely no need to panic at this stage.
I agree about a RH Bat – and I would try to persuade Mookie to have a taste of life in LA, before Free Agency next year.
He may enjoy it that much that he wants to commit to a long term deal.
Otherwise I would be happy to go into battle with what we’ve got.
It seems to me that they seem to think the lineup is strong enough to win the division now. So why jump on some overpriced Free Agent. Or trade for someone like Kelly or Pollock who didn’t contribute in beginning of year.This way we have months to see what is really needed. What if May, Urias are great, or some position player gets injured. Or who knows what. So my opinion is stand pat or make some small moves and wait until trading deadline and see who is available from teams who want to dump stars. Looks like Watford had same idea and we posted about the same time.
Every year I get a call from the Dodgers asking me a series of questions. It’s always the same guy calling and it’s always an interesting talk. Three years ago, I told him I couldn’t believe the Dodgers had messed around and not signed Zack Greinke. They had numerous opportunities, but chose to wait. Then they had a deal done and were waiting until Monday to finalize it, in swoops the DBacks, Greinke is gone. My favorite player, he could pitch, hit and field. Now, no Greinke and again you hike the price of season tickets.
Last year, I told him the Dodgers they should sign Bryce Harper, not because LA needed him, but he’d be fun to watch and they were hiking ticket prices … AGAIN.
This year I wanted him to make sure they delivered a message directly to Stan Kasten. I appreciate the winning teams and the stadium improvements, but I’m getting tired of every year paying more for my tickets. He assured me that Kasten does indeed see the info he and others gather. We’re hearing that a lot this year, he said.
Now, I’m reading how it might be a good idea to acquire Greinke. Well, okay. Just thought I’d share that.
Okay, on to other stuff. Enough of the Clayton Kershaw bashing. He’s still an excellent pitcher, nobody works harder or cares more. He pitched incredibly well in the 2017 World Series except for his outing in Houston. It was like they knew what he was going to throw. Two outings at Dodger Stadium, lights out. But hammered in Houston. Take away the camera, the trash can and Kershaw wins and the Dodgers win the World Series. An entirely different legacy. Oh, yah, Kershaw is fun to watch. Maybe, if the Dodgers had a more reliable bullpen, Kershaw does come out for the second inning and the Dodgers advance. But, they didn’t.
Then there are the penalties which everybody expects to hit the Astros hard. Loss of draft choices, probably. Loss of international signing money. Maybe. Fines, absolutely. Loss of jobs, most likely. What will happen with Alex Cora? No idea. If the Astros were an NCAA team, they would be banned from the playoffs. That won’t happen. How about this? The Astros have to return Yordan Alvarez to the Dodgers and Houston’s top five players become Free Agents. Now that would deliver a message.
So, what’s next for the Dodgers? They’ve got really good young pitchers to go with Walker Buehler, Kershaw and Kenta Maeda. They could use a right handed bat. But where would they play him. The outfield? Quite the logjam out there, so unless the Dodgers unload some outfielders, that doesn’t make sense. Of course there is still Donaldson, but that makes no sense on so many different levels. Then there is Kris Bryant. Okay, that might work. He could play left and third, maybe even some first base.
Then there is the off the radar trade, a starting pitcher or relief pitcher? An up and coming right handed hitter? But based on what we actually know or what we can speculate, perhaps Bryant is the most interesting player who might be available. Unless, of course, the Cubs want May or Lux or Gonsolin or Gray or Urias. Maybe Keibert Ruiz, but only because the Dodgers have catching depth in the system. Add a couple of other good prospects, take on the money and maybe you have a deal.
As for pitching? We’re not exactly hurting. Enough to win the division, perhaps add another at the trade deadline. Of all the flyers being tossed about, Walker might be worthy of a shot.
Hell, the electronic strike zone might have changed the result of game 5. I remember Kersh suddenly getting pinched at the top and bottom of the strike zone while Houston pitchers were getting a ball off of each side of the plate. But remember, we should have won game 2 when Doc pulled Hill after 4 innings (60 pitches) necessitating him to get behind the ball with the bullpen for the rest of the series including using Morrow for each game and three in a row in Houston when he gave up 4 in game 5. Fast forward two years later and Doc still can’t manage a bullpen. Sure, they may have won 2017 for any number of reasons, including trash cans and cameras, but that isn’t going to get us anything. We’re not going to get the Championship (Although Manfred does come up with stupider ideas), we aren’t getting prospects back, they aren’t going to make all their players free agents.
Sure, it’s somewhat satisfying that the Astros cheated to beat us, and at the same time it adds more salt to the wound. But, that same team that almost won it all, still has the same problems three years later. Still too many lefty bats, still not enough pen, and still a bad manager.
I liked your post AC. I am in sync with your comments. I am wIth SingingTheBlue (love that name), sbuffalo and I think, sk in regards to Greinke.
I’m still holding out hope that AF is going to improve this team this off-season. But, I’m starting to move into the acceptance phase of this off-season. Almost time to put my ultra optimistic face to get ready for the season.
If nothing changes, the pitching staff has as much of a chance of being as good as last years staff as it does being better, or worse. That’s the nature of pitching when you’re dealing with unproven, high ceiling, young pitchers.
The lineup is going to be the same or better. Everyone is still on the right side of 30 except for Pollock and Turner, both injury prone right handed bats that are impact bats at times throughout the season. At 32, Pollock can conceivably have a career year, finally healthy. At 35 Justin is entering his decline phase, maybe. He’s such a professional hitter, I can see him matching last year’s numbers. Everyone else can still be better than they were last year and we have a real impact prospect coming aboard to solidify 2B, a position that has been a hole for quite a while now. We have 4 quality MLB outfielders and have the making of elite defensive team. Our outfielders have strong arm or cover a lot of ground, or both. They are all above average hitters at a minimum. With Muncy at 1B our infield defense is steller. Justin’s defensive slip last year was probably a bit of an outlier and we have two legitimate shortstops up the middle and a GG-esque catcher.
The bullpen is going to be tested early with a rotation that won’t go deep into games. Losing Urias to the rotation won’t hurt the bullpen as much as you would think because he really only pitched once a week anyways. Having Treinen eat innings on a regular basis will more than offset Urias’ departure and will take a lot of pressure off Kenley, who can’t possibly be worse than last year. Like Pollock, Kelly is going to be much better this year. His pitch mix is squared away and they both have the comfort knowing they make it through their first year with a new team with high expectations. Baez was very good last year. Considering how he was used, he was outstanding. Sadler, Floro, Alexander are all poised to take a step forward as is Ferguson. Help from the minors is a lot closer than it was a year ago with Santana and White getting relief experience and Kasowski and Sheffield are another year closer and Carillo is rising quickly.
Even with the loss of Ryu, Hill, Freese and Martin there’s enough talent here to be a 100 win team and there’s enough prospect capital to improve at the deadline. Will Doc get less stupid is probably our biggest concern.
I have mentioned this before, but if you listen to Roo Striplings podcast, he interviews Kershaw where he talks about trying to learn a changeup since he was 20. How he practices them in every throwing session and can never get it down. A Kershaw changeup isn’t happening.
Watching Clayton recently, is like watching my beloved Cowboys on offense. Entirely predictable with poor execution. Continuously trying to sneak that first pitch fastball in was great when he threw 95, now no so much.
The outline provided with each clubs pitching status, in my opinion, only advances the thought of “if not now, when?”
There are no serious upgrades on the FA market outside of Strasburg or Cole, and the trade market is filled with unattractive options and also cost youth to be given up.
The straw man that Cole would have required 400 million is just that, a straw man. He may have. He may not have.
Every player says “this is where I wanted to be” after they sign. I heard that same from Jeff Kent to Brett Butler.
We will never know if Cole takes $325/9 from us, or $325/8 or any other deal. The problem is just that…..we will never know because we didn’t go all in. Yes, I know $300 million for 8 is a healthy offer, but I just find it hard to believe AF didn’t know that was NOT going to get it done. I also know that the Dodgers were not given a chance to match. This is why you go in stronger if you want to win, rather than pussyfoot around. If your target walks away from you putting out the best deal on the table, then there isn’t much you could have done. When there is a 24 million and 1 year difference, then you didn’t give it your all. Just the way I see it.
Honestly, if the Dodgers under AF were successful in making good FA signings……well ever…..I would have more patience. The fact is they don’t. Always the bridesmaid and an Ah…shucks.
The fact is Kershaw is in decline. May, Gonsolin are 100% unproven. Maeda is a nice piece but hardly strong piece. Strippling….the same but even less so.
The mighty Dodgers, in an strong FA class, have done nothing more than signing a hope and prayer reclamation project for the bullpen. That’s it. Yes, its not even New Years yet, and I have hope that AF can improve the team but when pretty much every impact player is off the board, and now he is relegated to the trade market, it hard to see how the team improves over last years team. Currently, it is not better, especially in the rotation.
The good news and bad news is that there are really only two teams who have great staffs. The Yankees and Astros. Their 1-2 are just better. After them, throw the next 10 teams in a hat and pick them randomly they are so close.
Boy, I would love to negotiate with you. I’d take your car, house, and socks.
While you are at it, let’s talk about Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy, because that as plausible as believing the Dodgers could have signed Cole.
There are two GM’s who have NEVER EVER given out big Free Agent Contracts to Pitchers: The Astros and the Dodgers.
I guarantee that next year, you will eat those words!
Maybe but more than likely I would come away with what I want. Even if I have to overpay a bit to make my life happier.
Houston also traded for Verlander, among others. They were not afraid to make a splash because something could go wrong.
If I want something, I go for it. Could I have gotten a 50k truck for 48k if I drove around for weeks going from dealer to dealer? Maybe? But why? If I do that though what usually happens is paralysis by analysis, and nothing happens cause I fret and wring my hands cause my payment may increase by $40/mo. Sounds like a recurring theme coming from Chavez Ravine.
Likewise, if I have a team that is really one piece away from potential 4-6 year dynasty, why would I not take that shot, especially when it just money, and that is the new market value for said missing piece.
It’s unlikely that you would step up to the plate as the ultra conservative, having 15-20 “untouchables” and unwilling to make “dope fiend” deals you get what LA has. Apparently, there were 3 offers of $300m or more (that we know of). That tells me this is market value. Not a case of the Yanks bidding against themselves. That is by definition NOT a “dope fiend” move.
Was it a smart move. I am not sure anyone know that for another 4-6 years……possibly more. I would say that if the deal was a good one is still a question after 6 years, then it was a good one. If the Dodgers have won 3 titles in those years, it was a GREAT one.
A prayer that your ONE reliable starter stays healthy for an entire season, an aging Hall of Famer can stay healthy but also effective, a man who may or may not even want to play for your team, a pitcher that has been babied beyond belief, and some rookies…… however promising.
In addition to that, a bullpen that has been a failure for multiple years with virtually no changes of consequence outside of a possible reclamation project for 10 million.
I just can’t imagine anyone turning off their TV after Game 5 saying ……..OK, if we can just let Ryu and Hill go and sign Trienen, we will be golden for next season!!
That is the spin some want to make though.
The Dodgers are not going to trade for any elite talent the price is too high. They may try to go after Betts as Boston wants salary relief for one year. They have pitching talent albeit unproven. The Dodgers will have to manage innings if they expect Urias, May, Gonsolin to be helpful in the playoffs. Therefor, the trade deadline will be the next best opportunity to seek what is needed. In the meantime if healthy somebody like walker might be given a flyer.
Hopefully, Bueller and kershaw stay healthy. As it stands , urias,Gonsolin, May,maeda, and stripling will split the innings for the next 3 spots. Unlike most I don’t see the division as a cakewalk. The favorite but Arizona and Colorado could challenge. 2 years ago Colorado took us to the wire and Arizona has improved with San Diego and the gnats will be spoilers.
If Boston really wants salary relief La might make something work. At the deadline Texas, Cleveland might be more willing to move depending on their position. We will have a better idea of what we need at that time. We have the talent to win the division but less margin of error this year. I forgot about hill but I would sign him if healthy and he could boost our rotation in the second half.
Good write up AC. My post tomorrow will also touch on Morton as a possible trade candidate ( I wrote and submitted it before I read this post), although I was unaware about his retiring comment. I also touch upon Jimmy Nelson and a few others mentioned in today’s comments..
With no further changes, at the start of the season, Buehler will be the #1, and Kershaw the #2, although to continue his legacy, Kershaw will probably start on opening day. By the end of the year, I think someone else will slide into the #2 slot. I just don’t know who that will be.
Rick,
You say that the Dodgers’ rotation will be weaker this year, but (correct me if I am wrong), you also said that Ryu and Hill would be bad bets for the rotation last year.
Fangraphs has Kershaw ranked as the #10 starter in All Of Baseball and Buehler is 13. Maeda is 64.
Urias and May are the Wild Cards… and I think both will be exceptional. Urias surgery was cleaning up the shoulder capsule while Buehler was TJ. I still believe Urias will go 170 (I am counting the playoffs). He threw several simulated games last year, so his innings are more like 110 or so. May threw 144 counting the playoffs, so I think both can throw 170. Buehler and Kershaw will be close to 200, so with Strip and Gonsolin in the pen, a lot of innings are accounted for.
I think that Hill is a bad bet for next year. I think that Ryu has a better than 50% chance of being very good again next year but that a 4 year contract is a bad bet.
If I was a betting man and closer to you than I am, I would bet the under on Urias at 150 innings (including playoffs).
… and then there is Jo Jo!
What I see is a $360/10 yr contract for Cole, who wants part of that ?
Cots:
Gerrit Cole rhp
9 years/$324M (2020-28)
– 9 years/$324M (2020-28)
– signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/18/19
– Cole may opt out of contract after 2024
– if Cole exercises right to opt out, the Yankees may void his decision by adding a 10th year (2029) at $36M
– full no-trade protection
In 2015 the Royals won with a medium-level SP rotation and a great bullpen, so that was set to follow, the other teams began to copy, with the Yankees taking things to extremes to reinforce their bullpen.
Journalists wrote and wrote that the starters were no longer so important, that that was something of the past, etc., etc.
This year the Nats with the worst bullpen and two ace level starters have once again put on the screen the importance of starter pitchers.
The conclusion is that both formulas work and the Dodgers think they will have a combination of both being Gonsolin and Trainen the key in the bullpen, if they are well then Baez and Kelly replace Floro and Sadler in the role which makes a very strong bullpen . I think that Urias and May, because of their ages, will be very good for 5 IP and it is then that a strong bullpen will take over. I also believe that if Gonsolin returns at 98-99 mph they will take a look at him as a closer during the year, he can do it.
Please how many more years of post season failures from Kersh do we have to endure before you finally stop calling him an ace. There is Kershaw the regular season pitcher who is one of the all time greats. Then there is Kershaw the post season pitcher who has thrown some gems but mostly duds! And now he has a 90 mph fast ball he throws mid mid way too much and a curve he cannot consistently locate. He’s a one pitch pitcher and when he doesn’t locate his slider like the one he threw to Soto well a fan ends up catching it. Clevenger has WAY better stuff and would be a much better number two. We simply are not winning a WS if Kersh is pitching more than once in a series. History proves this truth!
You can be an ace but bad in the post-season. Exhibit #1 is Don Newcombe.
I think the problem with Newk was he was used up by the time the World Series came along
For 5 or 6 years, history proved the Nats weren’t good enough to get to playoffs and when they were, they exited in the first round.
How did that turn out?
Well Scherzer and Stasburg didn’t lose 5mph on their fastball. Those who don’t learn from history are doomed ……..
Actually, they lost quite a bit. Both had the lowest velocities of their careers in 2019.
I would say Corbin really was key for the Nats being a starter and then relieving in between. The last guy to do that was price and he didn’t bounce back very well. Corbin bears watching as to the toll it may take on him. I believe this overuse may have contributed to the reduction of kershaw stuff.
Strasburg was certainly huge but we had him beat but we beat ourselves due to no bp again and dumbo calling the shots. Scherzer was good but beatable in the final. The 2headed monster was really good especially stras but Corbin pitching everyday was huge. Sanchez also was tough during the postseason.
Cmon Mark, Kersh’s stuff is no where near their stuff. I give up. You take Kersh as your number two. I’ll take Cole and Severino and the Yankees and we’ll see who’s celebrating at the end of October next year. It won’t be the Dodgers unless we pick up a legit number two or unless both Urias and May hit it big!
So I assume you are okay with trading Lux or May to get Clevinger who pitched 126 innings last year because of a bad upper back. Or was it a shoulder? Nobody would argue that Clevinger helps the rotation, but I am not trading a 22 year old with 6 years control for a 29 year old with 3 years control and a bad back, and one sub 3.00 ERA. And yes I will take Buehler and Kersh over Cole and Severino. I would take Urias/May/Maeda/Gonsolin all day over Paxton/Tanaka/Happ/Montgomery.
I wanted Cole. But when he signed with NYY, I am more than fine to see what May/Urias/Gonsolin/Maeda/Strip can to July 15, and then see if Texas/Tampa/Cleveland/NYM are still in contention. At least one of those 4 will be out, and all four have pitchers the Dodgers can tap into for top of the rotation.
BTW, Clevinger and his 4.50 post season ERA is certainly not stellar either. 15K and 12BB and 3 HRs in 12.0 IP. I know, Clevinger is going to get better and Kersh isn’t.
The Yankees were Cole’s team as a youth but he grew up in Southern California. Who knows who he would have signed with if all offers were equal. The Dodgers could have kept all prospects by signing Cole as a free agent but they didn’t. Cole is now sooooo yesterday for me. I don’t care why he signed with the Yankees or didn’t sign with the Dodgers. I’ve moved on.
I am not going to waste my time, because I already know, but look at the stats. Clayton is still one of the top 10 starters in baseball.
Also, if the Astros had not cheated BIG TIME in 2017, Kershaw may have very well been the hero!
BTW, Manfred is mindful of that. The cheating changed entire player narratives. Especially Clayton Kershaw’s.
Yes, Clayton is not what he once was, but he is still better than 95% of all starters.
I can always tell the people who have never played the game…
You don’t need to have played the game to see what Kershaw has done in his post season career. Also I don’t think AF was a star baseball player!
Don’t have to be a star…
But it helps to play.
Talk to MLB PLayers about Clayton. He has the ultimate in respect.
Kershaw will probably be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He doesn’t need our platitudes and our criticisms are mere frustrations. I try to not be associated with frustration. Just let me make my silly trade ideas to keep me entertained during the off season.
I think Lindor, Betts, and Archer would fit well inside the clubhouse and with the makeup of the team but the cost to get them probably would not make the Dodgers a better team over the next 5 years.
Not too long ago we had that excellent #2 pitcher. It got to the point that I was starting to expect a shut out or close to it every time he started. He made the all star team. His name was Ross Stripling. I am really curious about what my more learned posters think are the chances that that All Star Ross Stripling might return, and if not, why not?
Well you didn’t ask me RC but I think Stripling will do well for at least the first half of the season if he were in the rotation.
I,just don’t understand how you have any confidence in Kersh in the post season, especially now with his diminished stuff. I just don’t. I like Clevenger. The metrics on his stuff is ace like. Remember Cole was nothing special in Pittsburg before going to Houston. I think Clevenger could do the same thing with us. He was really impressive after coming back last year. I’m not trading Lux and I would try to put a package together without May to get him. That’s why I think AF will,wait until July to see how May and Urias will,play out before going all in on a number two. Would there be risk involved? Yes. But I don’t think this team as is, is good enough to win a WS. I’d love to be wrong but I think AF feels the same and is big game hunting
Clevinger is not BIG GAME.
Beiber might be. Target him!
I think you should look at the stats of Cole and Clevinger, especially when you say “Cole was nothing special in Pittsburgh.” They are about the same age.
Clevinger would be a #3 on the Dodgers.
Don’t get me wrong. I like Clevinger, but he is going to cost May and probably Ruiz… AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT DUSTIN MAY COULD BE THE BETTER PITCHER IN 2020!
Mark or Cassidy should not worry AF is not going to make that trade. The Dodgers leadership still feels Kershaw will get it done. Why else would they have Ryu pitch the 3rd game on the road in the playoffs after being almost automatic at home. Roberts is going to ride the horse until he gets fired. The Houston cheating has provided yet another excuse for kershaw in the post season.
AF is not going to trade lux or May period and probably not Ruiz. Cole was the real prize but the Dodgers never had a chance. Due to the Dodgers position in the draft the Dodgers cannot and should not gut the farm. The Dodgers are going to give the arms they have a chance. It will be much cheaper and maybe better. In the meantime the Dodgers are not going to make a trade that does not favor the Dodgers. If we could trade Seager for Lindor he probably would but Cleveland wouldn’t. Clevinger for May, lux is a non starter. May could turn out to be better. At the trade deadline we shall see.
Urias is the guy I think might turn out to be a disappointment. I hope not but he could also become an ace. Please pitch the guy so we can find out. As far as a hitter the wasted signing of an injury riddled pollock has cost us any chance of castellanos or the like. Maybe pollock will suddenly be healthy and productive lol.
Urias is going to be the pitcher that surprises most of you… the most.
Last year was tough for him:
1. He wanted to start but was in the pen and even when he started it was with a limit;
2. The alleged domestic violence issue was a huge distraction (and bogus); and
3. His stuff is beyond good… it’s great!
Julio Urias in absolutely in the rotation.
Maybe it’s my bad eyes, but I feel that Gonsolin is an underrated Stud
Could be that I was a Frank Zappa fan. I love the guy and think that you would
have a hard and expensive time signing ANYONE better
Even Ray can see that!
… Oh you are Ray!
Don’t be a stranger, Ray!
I agree with Ray. Plus he has a cat shirt for every day of the month. And splitters are awesome. Ask Roger Clemens.
The only deals the Dodgers should make would be for Bryant, if the Cubs are selling low, and the same for Betts. One year of Betts might get them to the WS. If he doesn’t and they take on Price, then they have nothing but an expensive 4th or 5th injury riddled starter clogging up the rotation, if Betts doesn’t resign. Stand pat, see how the young guys do, I disagree that Striplin doesn’t have good stuff. His curve is top shelf.
Stripling’s curveball can be nasty.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danielbrim/status/1000015940560539648?lang=en
Not too long ago, Julio Urias was being praised as the best young pitcher in baseball. I believe this is the year that all of that praise is proven to have been an understatement; not hyperbole. The Dodgers know how to manage a rotation and will use all of the young arms in the system in combination with Kershaw, Maeda and Stripling.
As an aside, Cassidy, I find your ideas and arguments to be dull, inane, and repetitive. In fact, it sometimes seem that you are conscripting ideas from other sites to put forth as yours.