For a Change of Pace – Meet Jacob Cantleberry

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1. Jacob Cantleberry is from Indianapolis. Greenwood, Indiana is a suburb on the south side of Indy and Center Grove is a large Powerhouse Athletic School that is rated highly academically. There was little doubt that Jacob would play pro ball. I am glad the Dodgers signed him. Here’s some video:
   

   I think he’s built for the pen, but anything can happen.

2. I think the Dodgers had an exceptional Rule 4 draft last June. Cantleberry in the 13th round looks like a steal; perhaps he can teach Kershaw how to throw his change-up. 🙂 19th round pick Braidyn Fink is another potential steal. Incorrectly listed by Baseball America as a RH pitcher; he is actually a 6′ 1″ LH’er who sat out the 2019 season after TJ surgery earlier in the year. 91 – 94 mph fastball with a hard-biting slider, in his sophomore season Fink allowed only 15 hits and nine walks while striking out 28 batters in 21 innings in 2018 with a 1.71 ERA. After the draft Fink went to AZ to continue his rehab program and was to begin a throwing program in September.

3. Another good Andy McCullough article from The Athletic. Since you cannot open them, I thought I would add a few sections for those that do not have a subscription (you really should). “The Dodgers are favorites to win the NL pennant in 2020. So why does this offseason feel like such a flop?”

   If you consider your glass half full, ZiPS revealed how little the Dodgers need Cole or Rendon to compete this coming season. If you look at that glass and wonder about the empty half, the projections showed why the team’s inaction so far this winter is so frustrating: The Dodgers have missed chances to add a superstar to their well-oiled machine. Editorial – We know this site has plenty of both half full and half empty.

   Multiple things can be true, and this is one: The Dodgers are obvious favorites to win their eighth consecutive National League West title in 2020, and are the best bet to win the pennant. “The Dodgers,” one National League West official lamented this winter, “just make things so much harder for us.” Editorial – Baseball officials seem to think more of the Dodgers than do many fans on this site.

   Manager Dave Roberts vocalized this stance at the Winter Meetings and suggested that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman “feels the same way.” During his availability with reporters, Roberts said, “This is probably the most turnover we’ll have from one season to the next.” He painted the process as an organic necessity for the organization rather than a knee-jerk reaction to a crushing defeat.

   “I think that you’ve got to shuffle the deck sometimes,” Roberts said. “Although we’ve had a lot of consistency … I think that for us to keep things fresh is a good thing. I think that you don’t ever want to get stagnant and complacent.” Editorial – Okay, still waiting for something to change the dynamic.

   This belief stems not from panic — the Dodgers under Friedman are not prone to panic — but from pragmatism. Most of the Dodgers’ slugging ability originates with left-handed hitters; Justin Turner is the lineup’s only significant threat from the right side. Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager have been relatively ineffective in October, combining to strike out in 34 percent of their postseason plate appearances. Some team officials think the offense could use hitters with better contact skills. Editorial – Better contact skills? Isn’t that something many of us have said for a couple of years (at least)?

   While their eight-year, $300 million offer would have been the largest free-agent contract ever granted a pitcher, the team was not given a chance to match the Yankees’ nine-year, $324 million deal that includes an opt-in that would bring the total outlay to $360 million. Editorial – Read – Cole was never signing with the Dodgers.

   The winter, of course, is not over. Friedman has all of January to make a splash or three. The team has the prospects and the financial capability to swing a trade for Lindor (plus Mike Clevinger?) or Betts (plus David Price?). They can throw some cash around to improve the bullpen. They can still do plenty of roster reshaping.

   Until then, multiple things will be true. The Dodgers are the favorites in the West and the class of the National League. They understand they shouldn’t be complacent. The leader of the baseball operations department knows what he is doing.

   And their fans are still allowed to be unhappy. Editorial – End the drought and the fans will be happy. That will take AF, Doc, and the Players working to end this nightmare.

   1. All Dodger fans knew that going into the offseason, the team had 3 areas where it could (and should) improve – an “ace” starter, a RH bat, and the bullpen.

      The team has purchased a lottery ticket in Blake Treinen. Will that be enough? I would be surprised if it were but we’ll see.

      The team has struck out (thus far) in the other 2 areas. But Spring Training doesn’t start for another 2 months so as hard as it is, we need to be patient.

      I am most concerned about the starting rotation. They have lost Ryu, last season’s best pitcher and haven’t replaced him with anything. I agree with not re-signing him – he will probably turn out to be the next Scott Kazmir, but they need to do something. I don’t see them acquiring another ace at this point. I would be happy with a solid #3 or 4 type. Maybe they get their extra ace at the trade deadline?

4. Opinion of Kingman, thank you for mentioning ” Ty Cobb a Terrible Beauty ” what a wonderful book and a bit of reconciliation for such an important figure in baseball.
   As much as I loved the Ken Burns documentary, “Baseball”
   his sloppy treatment regarding Cobb, certainly tarnished my view of Burns as a serious historian.
   I highly recommend the book by Charles Leershsen.

   1. Bobo, I agree. Burns isn’t always factually correct. It shows laziness and I have noticed others errors in other pieces he’s compiled.

      My favorite biographer of historical figures is Ron Chernow.

      I’ll check out the Leershsen book.

   2. The interesting thing is the real “piece of garbage” human being in the whole saga was writer Al Stump.

      Here was a guy that maligned Cobb’s reputation with lie after lie because it would grab headlines and in turn, sell his book. Years later SABR historians discovered that Stump was profiting off of Cobb forgeries. In fact, Sothebys removed Stump items from auctions after forensics experts determined that the Cobb signatures and a journal purported to be Cobbs was actually penned by Stump.

      He sensationalized stories about Cobb and it worked. The book flew off the shelves. Though the Cobb book has been determined to be largely a work of fiction, that didn’t stop Hollywood from making a movie on it in 1994 and in turn, spread the story that Cobb was a an evil person. The racism allegations were plentiful, and since Cobb was reared in 1890s Georgia, there was probably some truth to him making racist comments during his youth, but Ty Cobb actually was an early advocate for integrating the game, well before it actually happened and the quotes can be found if one searches.

      There is much more to be learned in Leerhsen’s book. Its a scholarly work that was very well researched.

      If lies get repeated enough, they become the truth in the voice of public opinion.

      1. A great 5 minute video about the mistreatment of Cobb:
         https://www.prageru.com/video/calling-good-people-racist-isnt-new-the-case-of-ty-cobb/

      2. Thank you for those insights. I used to admire Cobb as a boy; my father, born after Cobb’s era, told me that Cobb may have been the greatest player ever, not Babe Ruth. So I read about him, how he said that when he was in a slump, he would just try to hit a ball right back to the pitcher, as that might get his swing where it should be. How he would wear weighted shoes in spring training, leading to various stories in the papers about how he was slowing down ; and then he’d take out the weights when the season stared, and regain all his speed.

         Then I heard about the Al Stump book, and then I did see the movie, and then read the book. So I believed most of it, still admired Cobb’s greatness as a player. It is nice to see an advocacy that Stump just invented most of Cobb’s history. I’m sure he was far from a perfect person, but may have been more admirable than Stump’s book made out.

5. Doc’s comments had to mean that trades were coming, not just one or two free agent signings. I guess time will tell, but I’m surprised Doc would make those comments unless he had some concrete evidence to back them up.

   1. True that’s what I thought when I saw that

6. I think it’s very simple:

   The Dodgers player development is the best in baseball. They have drafted well and the pipeline is full. While all prospects will not be MLB stars, the Dodger’s Farm is developing more and better players. The Dodgers don’t need 2 WAR players, but could use a 3 or 4 WAR player… just not at any price.

   I have seen enough of Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin to know what they are and that they are ready. All three have shown their mettle under fire. One rookie in the rotation is not a big deal and I think that rookie will be May. I predict that Urias will pitch up to his press clippings and Maeda is a solid #4 (maybe Prior will help him trust his stuff more). Kershaw is ranked as the #10 starter in MLB with Striker Buehler being #13. I could see Buehler taking a big step forward.

   I am not afraid of this rotation:

   1. Buehler
   2. Kershaw
   3. Urias
   4. Maeda
   5. May

   With Gonsolin and Chicken Strip as long men. Stripling would start on 85% of the MLB teams.

   The Dodgers don’t have to do anything, but I think they are in on Castellanos. They can hide him in LF with their positioning and just working with him to improve. He is not a RF’er – he can be adequate in LF and if RVS gets ahold of him he is JD Martinez revisited.

   Joc could be traded for relief pitching and all the Dodgers have to do is see who is out of Contention in July. If the Indians are out, Clevinger will be cheaper than right now.

   If the Dodgers do nothing else, I think they are better already. Feel free to pile on – you have been wrong for 5 years and not winning the World Series is not a real reason. Not many GM’s win a WS in their first 5 years – oh it happens, but it’s usually just circumstances and luck.

   1. No matter how hard you try Mark, you won’t be able to will Castie onto the dodgers.

      1. We shall see…

7. Happy Holidays to everyone here.

   I have been musing about this subject, so I am going to explore it at some length. It is the issue of “value.” Books can be written about it. Obviously, $50 to a person who has no money and no food, is very important, while the same $50 to someone in the upper middle class means not too much. It is still $50, though. If you asked the needy person if he would rather have the $50 or a couple of DVDs, he would certainly take the money, while the second person might just as soon have the DVDs.

   I love the movie “The Cincinnati Kid,,” which is about poker, the personalities and the psychology. I was thinking about one not all that important scene, but like most of the scenes in that movie, something to make you think. A player who does not have the “poker sense:” of the great players, but knows all the percentages, is named “Doc” Sokol. At the end of a hand of stud poker, he makes a bet.. Cab Calloway’s character, with a marginal hand, but one which proves to be better than Sokol’s, cannot call, because “The Man,” Lance Howard, is behind him, and he fears a raise if he calls. (I guess a great player might have raised Sokol himself, but that is hard to do in that spot). So he folds. Howard calls. Sokol has nothing, Howard has very little but better than Sokol, and worse than Calloway. Cab frustratedly says to Sokol, “Why do you keep betting out like that?” Sokol says, “The bet was correct, he should not have called..” Cab says, “You better get yourself a new book, daddy”

   Why did Lance Howard call? Because he is a great player? Maybe. But he also “had position,” no one behind him, just cal l or fold. He had a bigger bankroll than the other two. For him, the long-range risk, even in that game, was less than Calloway’s. So did he “have value?” Whatever he had, in that situation, it was worth it for him to call. Calloway may well have made the right decision, in his situation, even with better cards.

   Obviously, I am going to make some of this an analogy to baseball and the Dodgers, and the free agent and trade market. None of the teams is equivalent to the poor and hungry man. Most of the owners have a whole lot of money. There are certain constraints placed upon the owners. They do not want to go broke. There is a luxury tax. But obviously, some of the owners have varying degrees of real or psychological appetite or aversion to risk.

   To say, as many understandably do here, that “It is good that we didn’t sign this or that or the other player (there are a lot of them whom we pass on), because he was too expensive,” seems to miss key aspects. Too expensive for whom? For the owners? For a general world view of things? For the ability of the franchise to win a title? Clearly, various owners see this differently–unless we think that all of them who sign name free agents are abysmally stupid, while only the Dodgers are smart. A particular owner may feel that this one player can be crucial to a title. He may feel that he needs to do something to boost attendance, or in a more generous context, he may want the fans to feel that the ownership is trying to make the team better. So for him, in whatever analysis or calculus he has, this player at a certain price is worth it, even if the Dodgers ownership think he is not.

   To say that “I am glad that Dodgers did not overpay for Ryu (or Cole or Rendon or Keuchel or Will Smith the relievver or Kluber or any of the other ones we chose not to sign), is certainly a legitimate comment, but it also implies that there are agreed upon and fixed values to players. And clearly there is not, and also the value can be different for different owners and franchises. As just one example (and I am not strongly arguing for having kept Ryu at that price), another owner, though not necessarily the one from Toronto which signed him, might think that if Ryu can give them two really good years and one decent year, and then perhaps not do well in the fourth year, it is still a worthwhile acquisition. The Yankees might well have thought that if Cole gave them six top seasons, even if he was no good for the last three, it was well worth the buy, in terms of titles, prestige, etc.

   The Dodgers, on the other hand, seem to ignore the intangible aspects like titles and prestige and fan joy, and look at it in a very cold and calculated way. If Ryu only was going to be good for three years, they would not sign him for four. They were not going to offer Cole the ninth year. (For those who say, “Well, it was already determined, Cole was always going to sign with the Yankees,” why did they offer the two extra seasons after their first offer was seven seasons? Just to be generous? I think not, I think that they felt that they had to go that high and long to get him). The Dodgers owners say, “Ha, Ha, we made the Yankees pay more than they wanted.” And the Yankees owners say, “Ha, Ha, we are going to win multiple titles,and you are not.’ And the Dodgers owners say, “So what, we don’t care”? Different values.

   The Dodgers get no major free agents because none of them is as valuable to the ownership as it is for at least one other owner and franchise in each situation. It is interesting that Friedman was quoted as saying something like, ‘If you just bid for a FA in terms of value, you will always come in third.” And that is exactly what happens. The Dodgers’ concept of value is different than other teams. I cannot know for a certainty as to what their calculus is, but it seems to completely revolve around profits, both near and long term, and payroll flexibility. But this is not as if the ownership is thinking of the fans as part of the deal, they want to do what will, within reasonable financial constraints (no franchise is going to have a $500 million payroll), give the fans the most enjoyment and gratification. No, they are always thinking of how to maximize their own profits, and avoid long-term risk, and sunk costs. Other owners do not see it that way, at least not as obsessively as the Dodgers do.

   I am not saying that we should have signed this player or that, just to sign them. But we don’t sign any of them, except for second- or third-tier free agents, and we get what we pay for there with the Pollacks and Kazmirs and Kellys. Or we take a one-year shot on a Morrow or Treinen, and if he does well, we lose him to another club, and if he does not, we don’t resign him. Less risk for the owners. But less chance of major reward for the fans. The owners are operating the Dodgers franchise as if it is purely a money-making venture for them. Pay a good deal to build up the minor league system, try to get a steady supply of cost-controlled players, sign no long-term deals, either pretend to bid, or fruitlessly bid , for ;name free agents; never make a major trade, because they won’t ever give up a young cost-controlled player with potential, thus leaving them with nothing to trade.

   They obviously can do what they choose, and are doing it. But to frame it i terms of “value,” as if that is some inherent and agreed upon thing, ignores the reality that others place different values o the same thing. If the Yankees win four titles in the next seven years with Cole, would they have gotten great value from him? Most would say yes, but the Dodgers would say no, they would have spent too much; the attendance never went above 4 million even with the titles, the payroll had less flexibility. They are playing a different game than some of these other franchises, jut like the various players in the poker movie valued money differently. The Dodgers are thus somehow akin to the poker player who determines to stick to a fixed budget, never take a big risk in a hand, but will rely on what he thinks is superior skill to beat all the other players. Or, to make the metaphor more accurate, the Dodgers may well not care if they beat all the other players, and win the tournaments, they just want to grind out a profit for themselves, and feel a satisfaction that at least they don’t go broke or in debt like some of their competitors. That can work for a single person, but t is not nearly as understandable or appropriate when it is a group of wealthy people who are basking in the reflected glory of the history of the franchise, and the love that so many people have had for it, over the many decades.

   1. Thank you.

   2. A solid contribution to this blog.

8. It’s easy to see a lot of teams out of contention in June: Royals, Marlins, Orioles, Reds, Mariners, Giants, Rockies. Even the Mets might be having a fire sale.

   Maybe DeGrom, Thor, Danny Duffy, Mike Minor and others will be available.

   1. They didn’t do any deals at last years deadline. Why would anything change?

      1. AF will make a deal only if it benefits the organization.

         Mid-season additions were Will Smith, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Corey Seager (IL), David Freese (IL), Matt Beaty, and AJ Pollock (IL). Pretty darn good additions.

         1. And Adam Kolarek who was a very nice addition to the bullpen. The trade of Tony Cingrani and minor leaguer for Jedd Gyorko did not turn out as well as hoped, but a good gamble by Dodgers.

9. This article is great: If an elite free agent is available, the Dodgers won’t sign him.
   How the Dodgers have managed to lower expectations to this point is truly remarkable, considering they have a television contract worth more than $8 billion.
   You would think they might have slipped and accidentally signed someone to a big contract by now, but, no, Mark Walter and his partners at Guggenheim Baseball Management are committed to a philosophy that is bound to disappoint their curiously loyal customers every offseason.
   The team’s behavior this offseason has been particularly alarming. A period that started with a failed pursuit of Gerrit Cole became downright sad over the weekend when longtime Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted a four-year, $80-million offer from the Toronto Blue Jays. No elite free-agent pitchers remain on the market.

   Never mind improving the team. As they stand now, the Dodgers have a worse roster than they did last season.

   The last time something like this happened was before the 2016 season, when the Dodgers didn’t re-sign Zack Greinke and tried replacing him with a broken down Scott Kazmir. That team didn’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
   But offseasons like this remain within the boundaries of acceptability the Dodgers have established for themselves.
   With every move they don’t make, the Dodgers have confirmed the long-standing suspicions about their motives.

   Their objective isn’t to win a World Series. It’s to win another division title.
   Don’t get me wrong. I’m sure they want to win a World Series. But wanting to win a World Series isn’t the same as doing whatever is necessary to win one.
   The attitude was reflected in their courtship of Cole. Did they want him? Sure, but not enough to make the kind of offer that would have brushed back the New York Yankees, who signed him to an nine-year, $324-million deal.
   Once Cole came off the board and eliminated the most obvious shortcut to a World Series, the Dodgers reverted to their old tricks.
   They were open to offering Ryu a four-year contract, but with a considerably lower average annual value than he received from the Blue Jays, according to a person familiar with the situation who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak on the record.
   They weren’t a championship team with Ryu and they can still finish on top of the National League West without him.

   The way this offseason has unfolded is a reminder that Guggenheim’s cash-hording wouldn’t be possible without a dependable group of coconspirators , namely the owners of the other teams in the division. Regardless of whether they are frugal or inept, these franchise owners have essentially created an unobstructed path to the postseason for the Dodgers.
   The absence of competition has spared the Dodgers the obligation to pay for premium free agents. When the free-agent prices have made them uncomfortable, they have been able to explore the trade market, which is less predictable but also often less expensive.

   And this is where the Dodgers are today, as Ryu was the last free-agent pitcher who could have helped their rotation.
   But making dramatic improvements figures to be difficult in the league’s current environment. There is no pitcher of Cole’s quality on the trade market. There might not be another pitcher of Cole’s quality in baseball, period.
   Most of the game’s elite players are on teams that won’t dump them for prospects. To acquire quality players, the Dodgers will likely have to give up quality players, meaning they can only make marginal improvements in a trade.

   Potential trade partners hold a degree of leverage over the Dodgers at this point, as they know the Dodgers can’t pivot back to the free-agent market. The Dodgers’ only recourse will be to wait.
   Their weak division has afforded them the luxury to do that. More than any other team, the Dodgers have been able to shift the burdens of the offseason to the July 31 trade deadline.
   What’s the worst that can happen to the Dodgers until then? It’s not as if the San Francisco Giants or any of the other teams in the NL West can stand up to them.
   But waiting has its dangers, as the Dodgers learned last season, when they failed to make a midsummer deal for an impact player.
   Ownership’s refusal to pay for Cole has placed a massive burden on Andrew Friedman. As the president of baseball operations, Friedman will have to make the kind of earth-shaking trade that will convince an increasingly skeptical fan base the team feels the urgency to win now.

   When the Dodgers were thrifty in previous offseasons, they explained they wanted to remain flexible in case they encountered a special opportunity in the future. Well, that opportunity presented itself this offseason in Cole’s availability and they blew it. If they don’t make up for that, the fans will figure out what was in front of them this entire time, that the organization never wanted a World Series as much as they did. Boycott Fanfest. They have no qualms about raising ticket prices. Stan Kasten should never speak again. Leave it to the Dodgers front office to ruin Christmas

   1. James,

      You are in charge of your own feelings. You choose to see what you want, even if what you see is a straw man.

      I think it would have been stupid to sign Cole, but Cole did not want to play in LA. He wanted to be a Yankee.“I can remember as a little boy dreaming about being a Major League Baseball player, specifically a Yankee,” Cole said. “I’m just tremendously excited, and I hope there’s a lot of young boys out there that chase their dreams just like I did.” Coles parents were Yankee fans and the Dodgers had no chance. That’s why Cole never gave the Dodgers a chance to beat the Yankees offer – he wanted to be a Yankee.

      So, the majority of what you just wrote is fiction… a straw man invented in your own mind because of your hatred of everything Dodgers Front Office.

      You are free to believe what you want, but I call BS on most of what you just wrote.

      1. It wasn’t written by me. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times

      2. You should also comment on William’s Post. What exactly makes Dylan Hernandez’s article BS. All I see in the Front Office is fear and following a mandate to make profit like Bill Shakin wrote a while back.

         1. Figures. That what Dylan has to write to sell papers. I have a subscription but rarely read there.

            Simply put, the Dodgers are doing it differently. We have no idea what they are investing into player development, but it’s a lot. They tried and failed by spending a lot of money on international signings. Analytics, player development, $10 million into the Dominican, $100 million to the stadium and a lot of other areas that other teams are not spending.

            I think Dylan has it all wrong… as usual. That’s why he’s a beat writer. No vision!

10. I just wanted to take an opportunity to wish all the posters here a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Happy New Year. I really enjoy reading all the opinions, suggestions and speculation on this sight. And the civil disagreements and different perspectives. I enjoy making an occasional post. Enjoy the holiday season.

11. Mets, Ex-Yankees RP Dellin Betances Reportedly Agree to 1-Year Contract. Dodgers strike out again.

    1. He was looking for a similar amount of money as Treinen ($10M), and he has a player option for 2021, and a vesting option for 2022. I don’t think Dodgers struck out, more like they dodged a bullet.

       1. Does any player fit your criteria for a player they should get.

          1. Does any player not fit your criteria for whom the Dodgers should get?

             1. Yeah Scott kazmir, Bud Norris, Joe Kelly, AJ Pollack, Brandon McCarthy, and Brett Anderson to name a few. Do you get my point?

          2. There is a good chance that Betts will be a Dodger before the season starts.

          3. Sure, for a fair return. I thought the Treinen contract was a fair deal for both player and team. Love to have Betts, or Lindor, or Clevinger on the Dodgers for a fair package of players, but most of the trade scenarios put forth by writers like Jim Bowden would result in Dodgers overpaying with their top prospects which is unnecessary. The Dodgers have its core group of players returning that won 106 regular season games, with Lux, May, Gonsolin, and Smith available all season — hopefully Verdugo will also be healthy all year. I do take time to look at players total stats in valuing trades; do you?

             1. To James Moya – I do get your point. It’s to dwell on the negative and view anything that other teams do, as a loss for the Dodgers and then you carry that thought out to the premise that the Dodgers “never” do anything, the FO is incompetent and, all the while you ignore or down play anything positive that the Dodgers do accomplish. It’s very predictable and it gets tiring.

12. RP upgrade will have to come by way of a trade unless you’re enamored by the likes of:

    Tommy Hunter
    Juan Nicasio
    Pat Neshek
    Andrew Cashner
    Steve Cishek
    Pedro Strop
    Collin McHugh
    Fernando Rodney
    Brandon Kintzler
    etc.
    etc.
    etc.
    etc.

    1. … or from within.

       1. I think Victor Gonzalez has a legit chance to be one of the lefties in the bullpen. Will be competing for a spot in spring training with Alexander, Ferguson, and Kolarek.

          1. SCB – Victor has plugged along as a forgotten man until he made them take notice. He has a nice K/BB ratio and like Ross Stripling can serve in a variety of roles – spot starts, long relief, an inning, a batter.

          2. I am with you on this one. Maybe Victor becomes this year’s Emmanuel Clase. You just never know with relievers. He could. be a major surprise.

          3. He does!

13. William and Dylan Hernandez of the Times raise interesting questions. The value of a thing is what a willing buyer and seller are willing to transact; however, not everyone values the same things in the same way. So – how do the Dodgers value star baseball players? The evidence of 5 years of Friedman running things is that they don’t value them as much as other MLB teams do. This raises the issue of who’s valuation is correct.

    Second, if you truly believe that the only thing that matters is to make the post-season and after that, anyone can win, then you don’t make major changes if they aren’t needed to make the post-season. The Dodgers are predicted (accurately, I think) to win the NL West again this year so they should make the post-season. So why spend a lot of extra money?

    William wrote :”The Dodgers get no major free agents because none of them is as valuable to the ownership as it is for at least one other owner and franchise in each situation. It is interesting that Friedman was quoted as saying something like, ‘If you just bid for a FA in terms of value, you will always come in third.” And that is exactly what happens. The Dodgers’ concept of value is different than other teams. I cannot know for a certainty as to what their calculus is, but it seems to completely revolve around profits, both near and long term, and payroll flexibility.”

    I’m not convinced that it’s all about profits – the past several off-seasons have shown that other than the big stars, free agents (especially veterans) don’t get paid because owners have figured out that you get the best value from your young players. You get 6 or 7 years of team control (including arb years). By then, most free agents are in their late 20s or early 30s and by then, conventional wisdom has come to be that a player’s best years are behind him. So you get best value from your young players.

    This is how teams like the A’s and Rays have been competitive for years. So the Dodgers hire the Rays GM to be President of Baseball and hired the A’s Assistant GM to be GM (Zaidi). So why would you think that they wouldn’t bring that experience and mind set with them to the Dodgers?

    What is different is that the Dodgers have the financial resources to do what the A’s and Rays do on steroids. They have the largest analytics staff in MLB. They have completely rethought player development and bring more prospects to MLB than anyone.

    But – I don’t think it has to be a binary choice. They can spend the money on new age baseball and player development and be players for star caliber talent at the MLB level too.

    Apparently, the this is where the Dodgers part company with me.

    1. I agree that players are valued differently by teams. But it begs the question because no matter what AA might have offered none of the top FA wanted to play for LAD. If the Dodgers had the opportunity to increase their offer for Cole, how far should they have gone to prove to fans they are willing to spend…$400MM? I think the only player where the value conundrum came in was for Ryu, and AF did not value Ryu as much as Toronto.

14. If Seager winds up in a trade maybe it will look something like this:

    Seager to Yankees, Andujar to Indians, Taylor to Indians, Lindor to Dodgers.

    1. As with Betts, it depends on whether Lindor can be extended.

15. I’m not sure that makes the Dodgers better!

16. Charlie Morton

    1. There are some who think that Morton would retire if traded.

    2. More likely trade deadline possibility, but as I said last week I am sure AF is calling his buddies in Tampa to at least check in on Charlie Morton.

17. Speaking of value, Future Dodgers tweeted some stats with regard to the highest paid relievers (AAV) with the following number their FIP number. Paying up for relievers more often than not does not give you what you paid for.

    W Davis ($17.3M AAV, 5.29 FIP)
    A Chapman (17.2, 2.19)
    K Jansen (16, 3.68)
    M Melancon (15.5, 2.74)
    C Kimbrel (14.3, 6.64)
    Z Britton (13, 4.08)
    A Miller (12.5, 5.47)
    D Robertson (11.5, 6.07)
    B Morrow (10.5, DNP)
    J Familia (10, 5.26)

18. Bumsrap’s suggestion nets Lindor for Seager and Taylor. I love Corey Seager, but as things stand now, Lindor is an upgrade both defensively and offensively. If healthy, Corey may catch or exceed him offensively, but never on defense. And Gavin Lux more than replaces Taylor.

    How would the Dodgers not be better?

    I do wonder why the Indians would do that deal. How are Andujar and Taylor enough for Lindor? Did I miss something?

    1. I left some work for Friedman to do. I don’t know what else it would take to get Lindor.

       1. The Yankees need a lefty bat as they are righty dominant. They lost Didi, their lefty hitting shortstop to free agency. Torres could move to third and LeMathieu could stay at second.

          Andujar’s 2018 line: .297 .328 .527 .855 He was mostly injured in 2019.

          Taylor and Andujar would fill needs for Cleveland and save them money. Add anybody else of big value and might as well go big and try for Clevinger too.

    2. Lindor v Seager offensively over their careers (Baseball Reference):
       Lindor: .288 / .347 / .493 / .840 — OPS+ 119
       Seager: .294 / .362 / .491 / .853 — OPS+ 126

       Take a look at Lindor’s splits away from hitter friendly Progressive Field: .266 / .320 / .461 / .781 compared to his career stats. Lindor is a terrific player, especially his speed and defense, but it seems that Dodgers fans are undervaluing Seager.

       1. Yes. Absolutely… trading Seager for Lindor is a dumbass move.

19. And I should have added that Lindor adds an impact RH bat and speed.

    1. And a natural lead off hitter.

20. Lindor has a lot more power from the left side and that is not enough (Seager and Taylor) to get him.

21. I used to get press passes, Christmas Cards and special stuff from the Dodgers.

    Since Kasten and Co. took over I get zip.

    It’s funny, but back then I was very critical of the Dodgers.

    Now I am accused of being a homer.

    OK, whatever.

    We shall see who is right: And Believe me! I will call you out!

    Frankly, I cannot believe how myopic some of you are!

    Merry Christmas!

22. Okay, the Dylan Hernandez column is interesting and certainly a perspective. Dylan always writes with an edge, he’s always looking at what is really going on behind the curtain and challenging what the real intent is …

    I’m not certain I would characterize the Dodgers off-season as alarming. That would certainly be an apt assessment if the Dodgers were a struggling franchise, but in reality they are not. He’s no doubt correct to a point regarding the weak NL West, but it wasn’t long ago that the division was one of the best, most competitive in baseball. Both the DBacks and the Rockies challenged the Dodgers.

    Everyone understands the Dodgers haven’t won a World Series and that something has been missing. What exactly is up for debate. One year, it was definitely bullpen. Certainly last year, the pen was an issue. Clutch hitting is another reason. The lack of a good third pitcher was a problem, think Brett Anderson.

    There were only two real difference makers on the free agent market this year, Cole and Strasburg. The one was determined to return to Washington and the Nats wanted him and paid a hefty amount to get him. The other apparently wanted to be in New York. The reports say the Dodgers offered a $300 million deal. That’s a lot of money. The Yankees offered him more. How does all this work out? Only time will tell. Three years ago none of you and that includes Hernandez would have been clamoring for the Dodgers to ink Cole.

    So who else on the free agent market should the Dodgers have signed? Ryu would have been nice, but four years? Seriously? With his injury history?

    The Dodgers didn’t need Anthony Rendon. Kris Bryant is still out there and will probably be dealt once they make a decision on whether he has one year or two years left. Lindor? Clevinger? Or maybe an under the radar deal?

    The reality is, if the Dodgers do nothing more, they have a really good team, one that will win the division, again, and can certainly reach the World Series. They can also win it. Nothing wrong with giving young pitchers a chance to produce. They’ve won with less. I know that’s not what some of you want to hear, but it is reality.

    There is no question that I think the Dodgers are seeking elite talent, game changers to help improve the team. Beyond Cole, that only exists on the trade market and those type of deals can be difficult. Again, only time will tell. But at this point, we really don’t know what the spring training roster is going to look like.

    So enjoy the holidays. Merry Christmas.

23. My only problem with Friedman SO FAR this off season is that he hasn’t (on paper) upgraded the bullpen YET.

    Treinen is a gamble, and I’m fine with Treinen. But I would argue that the Dodgers coming into the off season needed to make 2 or 3 moves to upgrade the bullpen. We’ll see if that gets done.

    1. Jansen
       Baez
       Kelly
       Treinen
       Sadler
       Stripling
       Ferguson
       Alexander

       The right side is pretty deep and talented. The left side is a bit sketchy. Who loses their job if they add 1 0r 2 more arms?

       1. I don’t know what Doc or Friedman have in mind, but if I was calling the shots, considering the 3 batter minimum rule, I wouldn’t look at things from a right handed or left handed perspective.

          The bottom 3 on your list have options and I would rather none of them make the 26 man roster.

          Sadler is out of options and I’d rather he not make the 26 man roster.

          The top 4 on your list would be on the 26 man roster. I don’t care for Kelly and Jansen but their contracts are either hard to move (Kelly) or impossible to move (Jansen).

          So those 4 plus an additional 2 relievers makes 6 relievers with 2 spots open. Depending on which one doesn’t make the starting rotation between May, Urias, Gonsolin, that one would be in the bullpen leaving 1 spot open for either acquiring a starting pitcher bumping another one from that trio above to the bullpen or making the 8th spot in the bullpen a spring training tryout.

          Getting back to the right handed left handed thing, the 2 relievers that I want Friedman to get both have better career stats against left handed batters but both have good career stats with both sides of the plate and both are right handers.

24. To Mark, AC, DC, 2D2, SoCalBum, peterj, Philjones, Waderford, 59, BumsRap, 1439, SingingtheBlue, buffalo, sk, rudy, Brooklyn and all others on this blog. I hope I did not forget anyone.

    Have a wonderful holiday season. Keep those here with you close and share the treasured memories of those who can not be here with us. Merry Christmas. Love you all.

    1. Merry Christmas to you, DBM! I hope Santa brings you, and all of us a World Series this year.

    2. DBM- Merry Christmas to you and yours!! Hope you have a wonderful holiday and that 2020 is an awesome year!

25. Analytics believers. So why didnt roberts take darvish out. Why did roberts take hill out. Why did roberts leave kershaw in. They can trade lux and find another lux somewhere. Lindor is a star who helps us win now

    1. Do the Dodgers ever do anything right, in your opinion? It seems like you think they are purposely ruining your life. I appreciate your passion, but remember life is good. There are probably 25-28 fan bases who would trade places with us.

    2. Roberts does it only to screw with your mind. He enjoys giving you something to write about

26. Stop signing kazmir and make the lindor move.

    1. Kazmir was not a bad signing at the time he was signed. Other than you, no one could predict he would get injured.

       At what cost Lindor? In your mind, do players like Lux grow on trees?

27. Complaining about Dillin Betances signing with the Mets is a little overblown. There’s a lot of risk in signing him since he had a major arm injury and then an achilles injury that he’s still rehabbing. He the kind of guy you can take a flier on with a one year deal, but he got more than that with incentives and a couple of options. We most likely would have had to beat that bad deal in order to get him since he’s played his entire career in NY. So, I assume he liked the idea of not having to move, and getting paid a lot.

    But, the flip side is just as troubling. IMO, as a fan, I want to see my team improve when they fall just short. To blindly follow The Church of AF is like drinking Cool-Aide in Guiana. Sure, everything seems great to live in peace on the commune until no one wakes up from their Cool-Aide stupor. The point of every season is to win the last game. We haven’t done that for 31 years and counting. Sadly, no matter what happens, I will always love my team. But, I don’t have to agree with everything they do, foolishly believing that their way is the right way. AF has done some good things in his career, but he’s never won the last game. So, there’s at least some people who did it better than he does. Sure, it’s impressive that we’ve won our division so many times I’ve lost count. But, those are hardly bragging rights without winning the big one.

    I understand the difficulties in signing a free agent, he has to want to play for you, he has to fill a need, he has to like the geography in some cases, you have to get his wife to commit in some cases. The money has to be right. So, I can see missing out from time to time. But, missing out on practically everyone is completely unacceptable.

    Fans are getting impatient and they should be. I’m glad Dylan Hernandez wrote that article. Bad press can be good motivation. The funny thing is calling him a hack or implying that he’s an idiot when he’s calling out the guy that choked last deadline and so far this offseason after choking last offseason. I mean, what the hell is he doing that deserves such a cult like following from some? After all, a lot of those division titles were Colletti’s and AF inherited a damn good team. When is the time to call him out? After this offseason, or next trade deadline? After he’s gone?

    With that said, I still have hope that he’s gonna get something done this offseason. But, he still needs to replace Ryu and Freese just to break even.

    1. May and White?

       1. I love May and Urias and think they have the stuff to be a No 1 some day. But, lets not forget that Ryu had a sub 2 era for most of the season. Hell, his WAR was 5.3 (I know how much you like that stat). I would bet the under on both of them to get to 5.3. But, I think that either can go 14-5. Overall, I think our stating staff this year has a chance to be great, but our bullpen last year had a chance to be great. Reality is something entirely different.

          I’m pretty comfortable going all in saying that White can’t hold Freese’s joc. In fact, I would be willing to say White has a better chance of not being on the team, than he has replicating Freese’s numbers from last year. And you know how I feel about platoons. Kinda like WAR, they both just don’t look right.

          What’s your favorite flavor of Cool-Aide. I like Grape, but Cherry is pretty damn close.

28. The possibility is very likely that the two guys Cleveland wants for Lindor (Lux and May or Verdugo) will produce a higher WAR than Lindor… and suggesting AF make that trade shows you have bad luck when it comes to thinking. I feel I lose brain cells reading some of this stuff… and I cannot afford that.

    It seems to me that some of you believe the more you repeat stupid $hit, the more people believe it. The reality is, the more you repeat it the more we are convinced you are dumber than a bag of hammers.

    Pound on, Dudes!

    1. Please, no politics.

29. 1 – I predicted that Kazmir would be injured – hey, lots of people did.

    2 – Mark, who are you “calling out” and why?

    3 – No one has contradicted my analysis – it’s not a binary choice. The Dodgers can focus their time/attention/money on “new age” stuff like analytics, player development, technology, etc. and continue to excel in those areas AND also acquire a star player who can be a difference maker. It hasn’t happened yet.

    4 – 59 is right – if the season started today, the Dodgers go in without their best pitcher from last year (Ryu) and their best bench player/RH platoon bat (Freese). Urias won’t replace Ryu – he won’t pitch the innings and doesn’t have the experience. White has never done what Freese has.

    5 – They will still make the playoffs, but they need an ace SP at least.

    1. I blame the Egg Nog.

30. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

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