Dodger Young Guns

Posted By on September 27, 2019

The State of the Bullpen… and Dodger Pitching

In the month of September of teams that are likely candidates to play the Dodgers in the 2019 Fall Classic, here is how they compare in bullpen ERA since September 1st:

  • Dodgers – 3.28
  • Astros – 3.47
  • Yankees – 3.81

HR per 9 Innings

  • Dodgers – .95
  • Astros – 1.52
  • Yankees – 1.59

BABIP – Batting Average Balls in-Play

  • Dodgers – .242
  • Astros – .264
  • Yankees – .319

Even Ray Charles can see the trend. The Yankees and Astros bullpens are trending down, while the Dodgers are trending up. This is not the bullpen you saw in April or May… or even August, for that matter. Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias are the Young Gunslingers who will help shape this bullpen in the playoffs.

Gonsolin has a 3.00 ERA in his last 15 games, with 39 IP, 26 Hits and has struck out 36 with a 1.00 WHIP. He’s on the playoff roster. Dustin May has a 0.00 ERA in his last 7 relief appearances with 9 IP and 13 K’s. His WHIP is 0.67 and he is on the playoff roster. Julio has been good all year with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP but has been even better his last 30 games. All three know they are starters but have a role to play and are settling into those bullpen roles as the season winds down.

Over the last 15 games, Caleb Ferguson has allowed 7 hits in 16 innings, while striking out 19 and has a 2.81 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s on the playoff roster. Another lefty, Adam Kolarek has been excellent as a Dodger with an 0.79 ERA (0.97 WHIP) in 11 IP over 25 appearances. He is just a LOOGY so I am not certain the Dodgers will carry him, but it’s likely. Of course, Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen are on the roster.

Casey Sadler has been pretty good for the Dodgers this year but in his past 15 games, he has stumbled a bit. His ERA is 3.68 and his WHIP is 1.43 for that period. I don’t think he makes the cut. Who does make the cut… and a big difference is Kenta Maeda. He has been the victim of some bad luck, but his underlying peripherals belie his 3.45 ERA as a reliever. As a reliever, he has only allowed 8 hits in 15.2 IP, while striking out 20 and limiting the hitters to a .148 ERA ().77 WHIP). His key is to get ahead in the count. When he does, he is devastating.

Dylan Floro has pitched himself off the roster with a 10.13 ERA over the past 7 games and 7.18 ERA over the past 30 games. I don’t think his arm is OK. Fan-maligned Yimi Garcia will get consideration, as over the past 15 games he has a 2.70 ERA (o.83 WHIP). The HR ball has bit him, but otherwise, he is unhittable.

Over the past 30 games, Joe Kelly has a 2.73 ERA and 33 K’s in 26 IP, but has only logged 4 IP in September. It is seeming more-and-more likely he will not be on the roster for the NLDS. We don’t know what is wrong with him – the Dodgers do, but they ain’t sayin’…

So, we know Kershaw, Ryu, and Buehler are on the roster and there are 9 more spots to fill. Above, I said that these are the pieces:

  1. Gonsolin
  2. May
  3. Urias
  4. Kolarek
  5. Ferguson
  6. Baez
  7. Maeda
  8. Jansen

4th Starter

In a playoff series, the 4th starter is not so important as you might think. Sometimes they may not even pitch… except out of the pen. That leaves room for one more and that is none other than Chicken Strip: Ross Stripling, swingman extraordinaire. Three or four innings is all that he needs to pitch, although he is getting stretched out.

The main factor to consider in the three-game finale with the Giants is that Rich Hill starts Sunday. If he pitches well and can walk upright afterward, he will be on the playoff roster and probably take Adam Kolarek’s place. Sorry, Adam! A combination of Chicken Strip and Dick Mountain will be a nice 4th starter. Remember that in the playoffs, Kershaw and Buehler may very well pitch an inning in a game instead of throwing their normal bullpen session.

So, that’s my take as of today. Here is my final prediction (unless I make another one) for the pitching staff for the NLDS:

  1. Kershaw
  2. Ryu
  3. Buehler
  4. Stripling
  5. Hill
  6. Gonsolin
  7. May
  8. Ferguson
  9. Maeda
  10. Urias
  11. Baez
  12. Jansen

We will talk about the position players before the start of the playoffs, but right about now, Justin Turner is a possibility to be left off the roster for the NLCS with “back soreness.” Matt Beaty and CT3 could man 3B in the first round. To be continued…

Arizona Fall League

The Junkyard, Dirt, Devil, I mean Desert Dogs won 5-4. No Dodgers pitched but Jeren Kendall (.316) went 1-4 and played CF while Omar Estevez (.300) played 2B and went 1-2 with a double and a walk while driving in a run.

Mandatory Music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dlCAfq4wVg

This article has 53 Comments

  2. M.T. – Doesn’t get much better than Bob Seger… One of my all time favorites…
    OK I wish JT weren’t dinged and Rich Hill was 100%, but I’ll take what I’ll get and am proud to be a Dodger fan…
    I’ve often said that the worst days of a manager and his FO is coming up with the 25 man out of Camelback and going into the playoffs…
    Lets get a series win or even better a sweep against the Gigantes…
    Rock n Roll…

    1. If you’re a Seager fan, you should check out Alice Cooper’s cover of “East Side Story” that he just did.

  3. Well Mark, I hope you’re right. But weren’t we looking at similar numbers in 2017 or am I having a Biden moment?

    1. The Dodger bullpen didn’t allow a single run, earned or otherwise in the entire 2017 post season, or am I having a T moment?

      1. It took me a while, but I finally got it. Biden can’t remember anything and Trump greatly exaggerates everything. Funny! If you combine the two, you would be having a Pelosi moment.

  4. I can’t wait for the real games to start! The bullpen looks locked and loaded. We’re a bit banged up, but hopefully that rest during the Wild Card games will get guys healed up a little bit.

    I think the 2017 team was a little over reliant on Morrow and Jansen. I think this year’s pen is much deeper and more wicked. Speaking of wicked, Dustin May is really freaking dirty. That fastball/cutter combo is … I’m at a loss for words.

    MT, I like your staff, but I could easily include Kolarek or Kelly. It’s pretty crazy that we’re going to have to leave some quality arms off the roster and that is a testament to how good this pen has become late this season. It’s going to be fun all off-season thinking how good the rotation will be next year with these young arms performing so well.

    Let’s take care of business and pull out one more broom this weekend!

  5. Can’t argue with your post, Mark. The way things stand at the moment, the pitching staff is coming together in ways many of us didn’t or couldn’t see. Closer by committee. 4th starter by committee. It’s not a bad plan. Of course, it was never the plan, but that’s life.

    I’m a little shocked that JT is hurting enough to keep him out of the playoffs. He has been such a meaningful cog in the Dodger wheel it’s hard to imagine him not on the field!

    One question that lingers in my mind is the notion that the LOOGY is not good for normal assignments. Is there any reason to believe that Kolarek cannot be a normal reliever and only limited to LHHitters? How can a pitcher in the big leagues get to the big show without being able to pitch to all batters?

    I’m certainly rooting for Rich Hill, but I’m not that optimistic about his ability to stay fit and firm. It’s a good thing that there seems to be an abundance of arms available to take over in his absence.

  6. Interesting that only 3 of your Pitchers for the Post Season are genuine Relievers – the rest are all Starters

  7. When reading the comments of Roberts about May and how he’s really been a quick study in adopting the role of a reliever, not to mention the absolutely filthy cutter he possesses, I couldn’t help but wonder if his future is that of the next lock down closer. He’s pitching like one now. Kenley is done as the lockdown guy he was. As I’ve argued before, Kenley’s problem is not one of getting his head straight, or confidence, or solving some quirk with his mechanics. His decline has been steady and progressive over the last two years. After two years he’s not going to suddenly find himself just in time for the playoffs. I hope so. It would be fantastic if he did, but there’s two years of sample size that says otherwise.

    Other than Kenley, I’m actually getting pretty excited about the pen going into the playoffs. For the entire year the pen has been the achilles heel and the offense and starting pitching has carried the team. Now it almost appears as if the pen is emerging as a strength, whereas there are cracks developing among our top three SPs, Bellinger has been Bellinger 2018 more or less the last couple months, and JT and now maybe Seager are dinged. Too bad, cuz those guys were heating up.

    I really hope Seager is not hampered by his hammy. According to Roberts keeping him out is only precautionary and he’ll be back in the lineup, but in Robert’s Speak, that really means he has a torn hamstring that will require surgery and his career is probably over. He might even be dead for all we know. Good thing Joc is streaking at the right time. Hopefully that lasts into the playoffs.

    I think I suggested a while ago the Dodgers should not even worry about Hill going 6. Just go with a tandem of Hill and Urias, or Hill or May. Now it looks like the Dodgers could go with either a Hill/Strip combo, or I’m rather liking a Hill/Gonsolin tandem. All we need is three solid innings from each, then hand it over to May or Urias, then to Baez or Maeda, to Kenley, Maeda or May.

    I think you’re starting to see the overall bullpen strategy of AF come together. Bloggers and fans have been complaining about the BP all year, and AC has argued before that the FO does not value bullpens. Again, though, you have to use the equity portfolio analogy, which really works here because, after all Friedman did get his start in Wall Street. It’s what he does and how his mind works.

    With bullpens, you have to anticipate that the effectiveness of individual pitchers will ebb and flow and be unpredictable. As a result, you go for diversity and flexibility. You don’t invest in a just few arms, but stockpile many of them. With the BP the team is likely to carry into the playoffs, the only arms that were there at the beginning of the season would be Kenley and Baez. I’m not even sure Kelly is healthy enough to go. Now, going into the playoffs, the BP is maybe the most solid it’s been – in spite of an injured Kelly and an inconsistent Kenley. That is either luck or design, but we all remember that Branch Rickey quote.

  8. Agree with all your assessments of the pitchers , Mark. Question…..I know Tony Gonsolin was a converted position player before he became a pitcher. Is Dustin May or has he always been a pitcher?

  9. There is nobody in Mark’s pitching staff who is a true lefty killer. Urias is not used that way and if I recall he has somewhat reverse splits (although not extreme). We need someone who can get out a tough lefty or two in the late innings. Kolarek since he’s been a Dodger has an 0.97 ERA with an 0.79 WHIP. …and he dominates lefty’s (.179 AVG, .264 SLUG, .487 WHIP). I don’t know how you leave him off unless we play a team that is very right handed. Plus it doesn’t matter if he only pitches to a batter or two since we have so many other pitchers who can go multiple innings.

  10. I agree with you guys about May. As he’s grown more accustom to the bullpen he has made steady improvement. He looked awesome last night. I know he is projected to be a starter down the road but as 59 and dodgerpatch said, his stuff is dirty. I think he has the stuff to be a shut down closer someday if they choose that direction. I know so far it’s a small sample size but his velo and live fastball sure look like closer stuff to me.

  11. Maeda or Stripling could be the 2019 version of the 1959 Sherry.

    Hopefully Kelly heals and gives the Dodgers the 2018 WS version of himself.

    Turner’s health for the rest of the year may determine the amount of interest the Dodgers have in Rendon. Or, perhaps Muncy spends most of spring training playing third base although the Dodgers would be missing a big righty bat.

    The Dodgers should be a better team in 2020 if Lux, May, Gonsolin, Smith, Fergusson played and did well in this post season.

    1. We have way too many lefty bats. Rios can’t even get playing time with that 1+ OPS. I would love to see them make a trade to balance that out. I wouldn’t mind migrating Taylor to 1B to accommodate Rendon next year while having Rios split time with them at 1st and 3rd. Or, maybe Muncy is in that role and can also play second.

      What a problem we have. Too many good players, but none are right handed? So weird.

  13. It’s funny that people are talking about May being a lock down closer. You can make the same case about Urias and Gonsolin as well. That isn’t going to happen, at least not in the next year or two.

    I’m not sure how many people remember that the Reds tried to make Chapman a starter when he first came up. It didn’t work. That same statement could be said for just about every top closer in the game. That they tried starting and weren’t very good at it. Closers are failed starters for the most part. The ones that weren’t starters in pro ball usually failed at it in the minors.

    Santana and White are the guys that are most likely closers in the making. Maybe even as early as next year. They meet the criteria that they are failing at starting already in the minors. Gonsolin, May and Urias have NOT failed at starting just yet and I’m pretty sure the Dodgers would rather have those guys in their rotation if at all possible.

    So when did anyone say anything about JT being too injured for the playoffs? Everything I’ve seen is that it’s back tightness and nothing to be concerned about.

    I know it’s been about 100 years since we’ve won the World Series, but everyone is worrying too much. Take a deep breath and enjoy the ride. This is a great team, you can tell by the “102” number in the win column. You can tell by the Cy Young and MVP candidates. You can tell by top prospects coming up and contributing.

    I’m just looking forward to the seeing games played with all of our best players on the field. I’m wondering if that will happen before next week.

    1. 59 – didn’t say May was going to be a lockdown closer. I said his stuff looks like he has the ability to be a lock down closer if he and the organization ever wanted to go that direction. Another consideration for pitchers being ask to move to the pen is money. Top starters earn WAY more in salary. I think Strasburg and Scherzer make $38 million per with CK at $31. Top relief guys are KJ and Melancon at $19, with Chapman at 18 or so. Also last off-season the top relievers that held out as free agents didn’t get the expected offers. Long term big money contracts are so risky. For all positions……
      As I watch the Padres, I count my lucky stars that the Dodgers didn’t get into a “dope fiend” deal for Manny Machado. Number one, I don’t like him. Two, I wouldn’t be tickled with his $30 million per year for .250 / 30 bombs / 82 RBI. Damn, what would Willie Mays make today, career .302 / 36 / 103?

  14. I would be totally okay with Mark’s prediction. If those were the pitcher’s I would start Hill game 4 then use either Stripling or Gonsolin to flip their lineup. If I’m Doc I’m telling everyone Hill is ready to go 6 innings even if it’s only 3 or 4 tops. Let the opponent set up their lineup to face a lefty then pull Hill and put in Stripling or Goose. I do think Kolarek is on the roster though before Ferguson right now. It may very well depend on who we play and could change from series to series. If the Brewers had Yellich for instance the Dodgers would probably feel a need for a LOOGY because he would never be pinch hit for in a game. I think they would be just fine with Urias, Baez, Maeda, and May getting the primary innings out of the pen.

  15. Aside from our bullpen talk (which in my mind hinges on if Hill is healthy), is Gavin Lux playing his way off the roster??

    He had a horrible series in SD, and to me took way too many strikes. I think he needs a big weekend in SF, or we’ll be seeing a lot of Muncy/Kike/CT3 at 2b come next Thursday.

    1. It’s possible. The thought crossed my mind too. I think he would have to a really bad weekend to consider someone else. They have veterans in Gyorko and Negron. Rios’ 473 foot HR may make him appealing as a pinch hitter. At this point I still think it’s his job to lose.

      1. A couple of big games against the hated ones will fix Lux. If he goes 0 for, we’re all screwed with too much Kike/CT3 like last year.

      2. It’s not how far you hit them it’s how often! You could have Rios and Freese play first and move Muncy to second if Lux isn’t ready

  16. After the other night when the Padres pinch hit a RH bat when Kolarek came in, I’ve wondered whether we could expect a repeat of that scenario if he’s used in the playoffs. I think I’d rather take my chances with Urias and Ferguson.

    I don’t know what sort of condition JT is in, and how much it will affect his play in the field. However, if he’s able hit, he could be invaluable in AL parks as theDH.

  17. Do you think maybe the Dodgers gave any consideration to playing Lux, a shortstop in the minors, to play there when Seager was out and play Hernandez at 2nd? Just wondered.

  18. Do you think maybe the Dodgers gave any consideration to playing Lux, a shortstop in the minors, to play there when Seager was out and play Hernandez at 2nd? Just wondered.

    2. I think they want him to get as many reps at 2B as possible. I think it’s too much to ask to float between positions while battling for a post season spot.

    3. DBMom – as was said the move for Lux would be a lot on his plate and other guys aren’t bad there. Don’t forget that CT3 was Seattle’s everyday shortstop once upon a time before he lost the job due to hitting .213. I like him there and he has done well when Seager isn’t available.

      1. Yes, phil. I do so agree with CT3 playing shortstop. He is good there and my favorite sub for Seager.

        1. Taylor makes too many errors at SS. In a pinch, he can play there, but Kike is a much better choice or Lux sliding over.

  21. Lux had a case of the Yips at SS early in the year.

    I don’t think they even want to go there now…

  22. I also doubt if the Dodgers want to overload Lux with additional responsibilities at this early stage of his ML career. He’s got enough on his plate, especially given his recent slump. He continues to play good defense at 2B, and if he continues to get reps at the plate, I am relatively confident that the slump will soon become a thing of the past. In fact, if he can get going at the plate, the slump may well turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Nothing like a little adversity to get the competitive juices flowing.

  23. All true. Makes sense. Guess it was just wishful thinking on my part to see how he did there.

  24. Today’s lineup vs Cueto:

    Joc (RF)
    Muncy (1b)
    Pollock (LF)
    Belly (CF)
    Seager (SS)
    Smth (C)
    Lux (2b)
    Kike (3b)
    Buehler

  26. I guess he is. But it’s a bit surprising that they would take a chance. But then again, I’m not there, so maybe it’s not all that cool. The way the ball is flying out for the Dodgers, maybe it’s warmer than I think.

  28. Some observations:
    1 -Dodgers’ bullpen looks bad. Lots of baserunners in every inning. Too much nibbling. Working really slowly. Includes Floro, Ferguson, Garcia and Sadler.
    2 – Lux has tons of range. Looks really good.
    3 – Buehler didn’t look like himself tonight. He was fighting it all night.
    4 – Bellinger still has his pop-up swing. Needs to get fixed.
    5 – Errors – defense not tight tonight.

  29. The Giants have used 5 pitchers so far, and all of them have an ERA of 5 or more. How’s that for a bullpen? Make that 6 pitchers now.

  31. I’ll probably get a +++comments closed +++
    But I’ll wait for next post if not answered…
    Why in the hell is Forrest messing with his windup and other assorted goodies???
    Don’t get me wrong… The kid is going to be dealing for the Blue a long time with a CY or two down the road… After 30G/180+IP… Is there something major going on or has he hit a wall??? Oh ya, Gonso has me worried too…
    Yes Strip should be ready…

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