Is It Time For a Change?

Posted By on September 17, 2019

I was going to save this for the off-season, but with 2Demeter2’s fantastic blog yesterday on the Technological Advances in Player Development, I put this blog on the “fast track.” So let me start with this: I am not sure how it all worked out, but I can tell you that in the past, I have fired people, but we agreed privately (for the sake of their career) that the “public reason” they left was to “pursue other opportunities” or their job was eliminated.

While I have no inside information, I think Turner Ward was asked to leave the Dodgers and maybe Friedman facilitated him getting the new job in Cincy. We may never know, but I am leaning towards that belief. I think Andrew Friedman saw what Houston did a couple of years earlier and knew the Dodgers had to make up some ground on their approach to hitting. In fact, he talked about how pitching analytics had surpassed the use of analytics in hitting and he wanted t try and get an edge back.

Turner Ward was a great guy and an excellent hitting coach… under the old style of baseball, but I believe the Dodgers were lagging behind Houston, St. Louis and the NY Yankees in the hitting development department, so Friedman had to make a bold move… and he made the boldest of moves by getting the baddest new age swing coach on the planet and started incorporating all the new technology 2D2 referred to under Robert Van Socyoc, Brant Brown, and Aaron Bates.

That was some radical move and it has paid off in spades and I believe it will pay even more as the process permeates the entire Dodger system. RVS is going to cost the Dodgers some big bucks… and they may not be able to keep him long-term. The fact of the matter is that he can probably make amazing amounts of money his program. But, I digress! That’s not the focus of this piece. The focus of this piece revolves around the man who is often revered as the Best Pitching Coach in Baseball: Rick Honeycutt! Consider what he has accomplished with the Dodgers from the Dodgers Media Guide:

Rick Honeycutt is in his 14th season as Dodger pitching coach, the third longest tenure of any Major League pitching coach after Chicago White Sox’s Don Cooper (18) and San Diego’s Darren Balsley (17).

In 2018 the Dodgers led the National League and were second in the Majors in ERA (3.19) and led MLB with a 1.11 WHIP while setting a franchise record with 1,565 strikeouts… the Dodgers have led the NL in ERA two years in a row and have ranked in the top five in the Majors every year since 2015 and seven of the last eight seasons,

Since his first season as pitching coach in 2006, Dodger pitchers rank first in the Major Leagues in ERA (3.61), WHIP (1.25), strikeouts (17,229), SO/ BB ratio (2.75), fielding-independent pitching (3.67) and all opponents’ slash-line numbers (.243/.308/.378/.686)…the Dodgers led the NL in ERA in 2008 (3.68) and 2009 (3.41, first in MLB) and were second in 2012 (3.34) and 2013 (3.25).

So, since he is really pretty dang good, why am I even writing this? Analytics! Like Turner Ward, Honey is old school and he is “old” as well. He’s six months younger than me and if he’s like me, he may like analytics to a point, but younger people “eat that stuff for breakfast.” He has been successful, but will he continue to be? If I were a betting man, I think there will be some Major Changes in the Dodgers pitching organization-wise.

Now, before you get your panties in a bind, I am not advocating getting rid of Honeycutt. He has been too good, too long, and as long as he wants to coach, he should be allowed to. I am suggesting a “re-alignment” of the pitching organization staff. Much like the hitting component, I think the Dodgers need a couple or three more pitching coaches up and down the system to help the pitching staff understand how and why they can be most successful.

Would Justin Verlander have been just as successful if he came to LA from Detroit as he was in Houston? I am not confident of that. In Detroit, he had an ERA over 4.00, but in Houston, it was just over 1.00. The same is true with Ryan Pressy. With Minnesota, he had a 3.40 ERA and was a pretty good pitcher, but after getting traded to Houston, his ERA dropped to 0.77 and he wore a superman cape. Something happened to both pitchers.

Brent Strom, the Astros pitching coach is 70 years-old and also “old school” but Houston utilizes things like “spin rate”, “pitch tunneling”, and “effective velocity.” The Astros have also virtually eliminated the use of the “sinker”. Brent has also incorporated many aspects of former Dodger Pitcher, Mike Marshall’s book on pitching. The Astros even developed a computer program to improve spin rates, promote arm health and increase command and control.

Here’s a quote from Baseball America about Strom:

“He showed up and he understood all of the principles of Mike Marshall and Tom House, all the different schools of thought out there,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said. “He had taken the best elements of different ones and was reading books, telling me what books to read.


He’s always been a curious mind. I don’t think age has anything to do with it. I think he truly is always seeking the truth and he doesn’t stop. He knows it.”

Is Rick Honeycutt involved in any of that kind of development? From what I know and it is admittedly, not much, I don’t think so. Strom was fired by five teams as he sought the Holy Grail of pitching. However, the Dodgers have the best ERA of any team in baseball. The Dodgers team ERA is 3.39, while Houston is at 3.74. Add in the AL DH Factor and maybe they are about equal.

This is not a slam against Honeycutt, it’s all about getting better. I am suggesting that the Dodgers do the same with the pitching as they did with the hitting. There is a man named Ron Wolforth, who calls himself “America’s Pitching Coach.” Brent Strom seems to be connected to him very closely. Robert Van Socyoc was a disciple of Craig Wallenbrook…. maybe there is a disciple of Ron Wolforth to be had… or Wolforth himself. Guggs and Company could throw a few million benjamins his way. I think something like this will happen in the offseason.

I have to give a shout out to Brian Cohn of The Crawfish Boxes Blog, for the bulk of the above information. You can read his full blog HERE.

Other Dodger News

  • The AFL starts tomorrow. We will cover the Dodger Prospects daily. In case you have forgotten, here are the Dodger Prospects on the roster (so far): Mitchell White, RHP (No. 9); Omar Estevez, SS (No. 15); Devin Mann, 2B (No. 17); Gerardo Carrillo, RHP (No. 22); Marshall Kasowski, RHP (No. 27); Brett de Geus, RHP; Jeren Kendall, OF. This is the best group of prospects by the Dodgers in a long, long, long time.
  • If Alex Verdugo is not on the playoff roster, the Gavin Lux will likely be… especially if he keeps doing well.
  • Tonight, it’s Snell versus Chicken Strip. When right (and he hasn’t been right much of this year), Snell is as good as they come.

Today’s Mandatory Music

This article has 65 Comments

  1. Great post Mark! It’s my opinion that this will probably be Honeycutt’s last year. Perhaps Prior takes over. Or, there might be the RVS type pitching guru we have yet to hear about that they bring in.

    1. I thought they had to talk Honeycutt back into coaching as he was ready to take a front office position a few years ago?

  2. Interesting post MT. I totally agree on Turner Ward and have felt that way since the day that RVS was hired. Ward was asked to leave but AF made it sound like it was Ward’s decision.

    Is the general thought that Mark Prior is lined up to replace Honey when he retires? That’s what I heard when he first came onboard, but maybe the thinking has changed now. Do you know how much into analytics Prior is? Could he be our Strom?

  3. I am not in favor of prior he has done nothing with the bullpen pitching there has to be someone else in mind

  4. For the last week or so, I really haven’t had that much to say. I didn’t want to just reply to someone to, not so subtly, call them stupid. That’s something I realize I need to work on. Don’t worry, I’ll soon forget as I always do.

    I didn’t walk away from the site. I read every article, as I always do. This is by far my favorite Dodgers forum. I even kept reading the comments. The thing is, what I’ve read for the last week has been really negative and mostly a turn off, so I kept quiet instead of calling you stupid.

    We’ve got two weeks and 11 games of mostly meaningless baseball remaining in the season. Now is not the time to lose your Sh!%. The Mets were the final test and we passed by taking 2 of 3 against a pretty good team in their yard with our team at much less than 100%. We have home field against NL teams mostly wrapped up. The Braves are 4 games back and we own the tie breaker. We probably aren’t going to have the best record in baseball because as soft as our schedule is, Houston’s and NY’s schedule is even softer. If you want to blame someone for that, just remember all those times we kept rolling out Alexander and pulling guys after 6 and 7 shutout innings early on. Games in April and May count just as much as September.

    The season is over and there really isn’t a lot to talk about other than…

    4th starter – do we really need one? Did the Dodgers shoot themselves in the foot by not getting Urias built up as a starter, or do they think he’s more valuable as a multi inning reliever? Gonsolin for 4 or 5 and Urias and Maeda finishing it off? Maybe Rich Hill’s knee is a blessing in disguise.

    The rest of the starters are Kersh, Ryu and Bueller as we all know. All of them can be dominant, or choke. They all started the year as the starters and they’re ending the year as starters. It is what it is and there isn’t much to discuss. They are who they are.

    The bullpen isn’t as great as their ERA and they aren’t as bad as their Inherited Runs Scored. By watching them, they’re getting the job done. They’re a roller coaster ride, but for the most part, they make it back to the station. Vazquez or Smith would have made this group great, but that’s just crying over spilled milk and has been discussed ad nauseam.

    Overall, I would rather have our staff than the Yankees or Astros and here’s why. The Yankees have sh*^ for starting pitching and their bullpen is going to be exhausted by the time the WS rolls around.

    The Astros have 1 decent lefty on their entire pitching staff and you know what we do to righties.

    We are to the point in the season where we have what we have. No need to start platooning Seager and Pollock now. We just need guys to be healthy and in rhythm and this is where Roberts will earn his paycheck.

    Turner’s ankle and Muncy’s wrist are major concerns. But, you know what? They will be starting in the post-season if they can suit up. They’re also trying to manage Pollock’s groin. If they can get these guys healed up, there’s no stopping us. If they’re all injured, we’re screwed.

    It’s sad that Verdugo isn’t going to be able to make the call. He became one of my favorites this year and if it weren’t for Mark’s obsession with him, or his obsession with being right, I would probably like him even more. Not for his stats, but for how he plays the game and the things he does that doesn’t show up in the box score. I still don’t think he’s the “Next Tony Gwynn?”, or a 20 HR guy because they’re probably gonna fix the juiced ball next year. But, he’s a little better than Todd Hollandsworth, or James Loney, plays better defense, and runs the bases well, and advances runners. When he learns to limit his slumps, he’s going to be a perennial Mark Grace type hitter.

    Fortunately for us, that opens a door for Gavin Lux and Matt Beaty and if they keep their current pace, they both make the post-season roster.

    The thing I’m most concerned about is too much Kike and CT3. I want to see those guys come off the bench. I don’t want to see three platoons.

    I’m not as concerned about home field advantage in the WS. I almost want to play more games in NY because Freese could play close to full time with the DH and imagine what our lefty bats will do with that short porch? Not to mention or righties have pretty good oppo pop. Houston is opposite with a short porch in LF. That will mostly benefit Seager and Smith. But, Joc, Belli and Mucny will hit them out anywhere.

    Other than that, thanks for the kind words Dodgerfan and Mark. No need for apologies Cassidy. If Rudybird ever says anything interesting, it will be the first time. Suck a D Bluto!

    1. Damn, I waited weeks for you to come back and post, that’s the crap you feed us??

      joke.

      I’d love home field in the Word Series, and yes, games in April do matter too, but if we win 102-106 games and somebody else (or 2 somebody elses) top that? Hats off to them. I’m sure they blew some April and May games as well, so it all balances out. Either way, season starts in 16 days. Let’s win a few more now and get guys healthy. After that, get the blood pressure meds ready.

  5. Sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you didn’t make.
    Felipe Vazquez has just been arrested in Florida on charges related to child pornography. We got very lucky.

    1. Whooooaaaa! Dodged that bullet. Makes Antonio Brown look like an alter boy. “She said she was 18” is not a good defense. Vazquez been hanging out with R Kelly?

      2. How would we be feeling today if we had traded Ruiz, Gray, Rios, Stripling and Barnes for him at the deadline? (or any other trade you want to make up)

      3. Wow! There are still some AF haters who thought Chapman going on shooting spree in his garage was no big deal. Pretty hard to defend this one.

  6. MLB looks for “polished” players these days. Which gives the well off financially and sons or nephews of former MLB players an advantage over less well off athletes who may have more raw athletic ability. Most or at least many can not afford private hitting ,fielding and pitching coaches. This is a fact and not arguable. Like our society it’s more about wealth and less about any democracy or equality. Doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy watching a well played MLB game though. It’s just the way it is.

    1. I can maybe count the sons or nephews of MLB players on a current MLB roster on one hand. How many total players are there throughout the MLB and their respective farm systems? How much is spent by major league teams to develop academies in the Dominican Republic? How much money did the Dodgers futilely spend trying to unearth unpolished gems from Cuba? What about the far flung network of scouts from each team evaluating players from Mexico, Venezuela, Taiwan, Korea, Japan as well as just about every American high school, community college or university – rich or poor – in the country?

      Like most social justice arguments, yours is long on sanctimony and absolutism and short on evidence or even a cursory acquaintance with facts, critical thinking or reasonable objectivity…and is just dumb.

      2. Wow, great post. I’d like to see more of a fight back from the mediocrity caused by social justice and in the name of participation trophies. Football is a pretty expensive sport to play, but you still see ghetto kids getting (undeserving) scholarships and getting drafted. Asian men are the highest paid group in America, was that due to social justice, or good old fashioned hard work and a strong family unit? Somehow the people that are screaming for social justice can afford new Jordans on the day they drop. Meanwhile, I don’t think I’ve ever paid list price for a pair of sneakers in my life. Look at Nike’s target market and tell me I’m wrong.

        1. Ghetto kids getting underserving scholarships? Why was undeserving in parens, and how are they undeserved?

          Aren’t the undeserved scholarships the one’s being sold to USC to upper-class white families as chronicled in the LA Times?

          Asian men are the highest paid group in America? Where did you get that info?

      3. Where have all the African-American Major League Baseball players, once so dominant in the sport, gone?

        In 1981, 18.7% of the league’s players, and 22% of the All-Star game rosters, were African-American. On opening day this year, African-American players made up 8.4% of the league, and recent All-Star rosters were less than 5% African-American.

        Meanwhile, African-American athletes dominate the NBA (74%) and the (over 65%). https://www.forbes.com/sites/leighsteinberg/2018/04/17/why-have-african-amer Just one of many articles like this. From your comment I can see you don’t like it and will probably deny it but read it anyway and do the research.

          1. Good article, Dirk. I’ve been quietly noticing this trend for some years now and have seen it play out on the Dodgers. Relatively few black players.

  8. “Suck a D, Bluto;” now that’s a real nice way to speak on a public website read by young Dodger fans as well as us old coots, 59. While others may have seen reason to commend you recently, I believe a Tiger never changes his stripes nor a leopard his spots. I’m still around.

      1. Mark, I don’t understand how you continue to allow 59 to participate here. He is abusive and hateful. It’s your board but there are some of us who dislike his disrespectful, all-knowing attitude. As I’ve mentioned to you before, please email me when/if he is banned. Life is too short.

        1. Come on, rudy. 59 is not a bad poster or threat to anyone. He is not trying to undermine the site and is not over the top, generally speaking. He’s emotional and passionate.

  9. Thank God we did not trade for Vazquez. I am sure Pittsburg wishes they would of taken less at the trade deadline.

  10. It may be time for Rick Honeycutt to move up but just because it is time. I think he had previously indicated that the wear and tear of a long season is getting more difficult. I don’t doubt for a minute that the Dodgers are not actively engaged in pitching evolution. The chart below suggests they are all in on spin rate and effective velocity. An example of effective velocity would be that a spin rate might be higher for a given pitcher at 89 mph than it is at 92 mph. The trick is to figure it out and there is still a place for good pitch coaching, like hold the ball differently,

    At some point around the middle of July, Caleb Ferguson started working with a new grip on his curveball thanks to Rick Honeycutt, ‘The biggest change is Honeycutt had me change my grip, obviously for the better. We changed the grip and I have more ball to work with. It just gives me more room for error. I don’t have to be so fine with it.“

    Ferguson’s changes to the grip have been measurable, as he now throws it two ticks faster and it has gone from allowing a .250 average with a .438 slugging to a .177 average with a .294 slugging despite being thrown more frequently. Speaking of which, he’s now less predictable. He was 85% fastballs and 15% curves before, but now he’s doubled his curve usage to 70% fastballs and 30% curves.

    Perhaps at least as important to the Dodgers is that his wOBA allowed against lefties has gone from .333 to .189.

    Something has happened with Kenley but it was not an absence of technology. “Kenley Jansen wore a wide smile in the moments following this past Friday’s (ST) workout. The Rapsodo tracking devices and high-speed cameras set up throughout the bullpens of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ spring training facility had Jansen averaging 2,400 revolutions per minute during his most recent throwing session, far better than what he had identified as his target number in 2019: 2,200 RPMs.”

    The Dodgers have been active with Driveline for the past few years. Driveline’s new metric is Bauer Units.

    For pitchers that come to our facility (Driveline) we can use either Trackman or Rapsodo to get measurements of their spin rates and then make recommendations on how to best use their pitchers or make tweaks to improve their pitches. In the case of fastballs, again we don’t know how to change spin rate, but we can make recommendations on how to sequence pitches or location preferences.

    TEAM CHANGE IN AVERAGE FASTBALL RPM/MPH, 2015-18 (revolutions per minute/ miles Per hour)
    New York Yankees +1.47
    Los Angeles Dodgers +1.12
    Houston Astros +0.90
    Texas Rangers +0.88
    Milwaukee Brewers +0.84
    New York Mets +0.78
    Boston Red Sox +0.63

    Amid all this is the nature of the pitching staff. Just as analytics are controlled by the hitter at the plate, they are also controlled by the pitcher on the mound. Don’t expect the Orioles to lead in both categories. Coaching staffs can only lead them to the plate or mound, they can’t hit or pitch for them.

  11. I have no doubt that the Dodgers are on the cutting edge of the data revolution for pitchers too. I wouldn’t be surprised if, with all of the data available and the number of pitchers they have if they employ more coaches to work with pitchers just as they have with hitters.

    With all of the resources that the Dodgers have, they may not spend as much on payroll as they used to but they spend more than most teams on nutrition, data analysis, technology, coaching and the like. I read an article earlier this year that stated the Dodgers and Yankees have the largest analytic departments in MLB with 40 people employed each.

    The Gammons article in The Athletic yesterday commented that the Dodgers look for young players who will buy in – guys with good make ups who are coachable and then the team makes the investment in them. Gammons said:
    ““One of the most important things for an organization is to know its own players,” says Friedman. “Talent, makeup, how they are as teammates … That’s why you need coaches and rovers and coordinators and people who help young players with the mental part of the game to help the kids grow, and have a pretty good idea who can survive the grind of major league baseball. It’s a tough business. Players are human. We have to understand them.””

    So it isn’t just technology or data or coaching. They are putting it all together.

    I thought that the biggest weakness of the Colletti regime may have been player development. The current management team is doing a fantastic job with that.

    1. This is why it’s mind-boggling that in this era, it’s not so much the strikeouts Cole and Verlander are compiling, but the fact that fewer than one baserunner an inning is reaching base. While Cole values his quality starts and innings the most, Verlander’s favorite stat is WHIP.

      “Gerrit Cole and I have talked about this a lot,’’ Verlander said. “I think WAR is a pretty fickle number for starting pitchers, but the WHIP, that’s our job, to limit baserunners. The batting average against is a nice stat, but if you’re walking three or four batters per nine innings, the way batters now count a hit as good as a walk for OPS, those walks might as well be hits.

      “Call me old-fashioned, but I still like ERA, too.’’

      Going old-school. And pitching for the Astros. Who would have thunk it?

    1. Could have been a real nightmare for the Dodgers.
      ~
      The team continues to be a real shit show. From the players to the manager to the GM.

      1. For Pittsburgh fans, at least the Penguins camp has opened. Between their baseball and football teams, its not a pretty sight.

    2. That Athletic article by Gammons noted that the Dodgers were simply not going to trade Lux, Smith, Gonsolin or May, period. It had little to do with Vazquez being a bad guy, or trading away “The Farm” as much as it had to do with Friedman’s “untouchables” list. Sure, we can define “The Farm” as those 4 guys, but more than likely, Huntington was insisting on one of those buys being included. Friedman didn’t blink. If Huntington settled for Grey, Ruiz and whatever 3rd guy that was offered, we would be living with this right now. We got lucky it turned out the way it did.

  13. Today’s lineup vs Blake Snell:

    Freeze (1b)
    Pollock (LF)
    CT3 (3b)
    Belly (CF)
    Muncy (2b)
    Kike (RF)
    Seager (SS)
    Smith (C)
    Ferguson

    1. Didn’t expect to see an ‘opener’ today. This truly seems like spring training redux.

      Suppose it sort of makes sense if Stripling is not a candidate to start in the post season.

  14. Guessing that the Pirates are kicking themselves for holding out for the sun, the moon and the stars for Vasquez. Of course, there’s likely no way they could have known what he was up to while they were making their demands.

  15. Some Dodger News:

    Ross Stripling said he’s pitching tonight in relief and Caleb Ferguson is opening for the Dodgers tonight. Roberts ruled out Stripling as a postseason starter, said he will pitch out of the bullpen, which is why he was scratched from tonight’s start and will instead pitch the bulk of innings after opener Caleb Ferguson.

    Rich Hill is throwing off the bullpen mound to test his left knee.

    One of the Dodgers taking extra batting practice today is Cody Bellinger, working on an opposite-field swing.

    Roberts not committing to when Justin Turner will start.

    Roberts said Game 4 pitching is “cloudy” and would be “unconventional.”

    Alex Verdugo concedes he won’t be ready for NLDS and is aiming for NLCS.

      1. No problem. I’ll try to get up to the minute news posted here within 2-3 hours before every game.

    2. Thrilled to hear Belli is working on an oppo field swing. That would make a huge difference.
      Unconventional Game 4 pitching – looks like Martin will be the opener.

    3. No structural damage for Hill. It’s all about pain tolerance. Don’t be surprised to see him pitch this week.

    1. Its figgin annoying when they have conversations with players while the action of the game is going on. Plus they split the screen that’s annoying too.

      2. I do like the no commercials and the stuff between innings. Overall I like YouTube games. Just quit the talking to players during the actually game, do it during breaks.

    2. I’ve watched 3 YouTube games. I’ve kind of enjoyed them. I like the stuff between innings. It seems like there’s less down time. It could be a lot worse. I could be listening to Bob Brenly or the ESPN Sunday night crew.

      1. I’ve loved the two games that I’ve watched, this season. Refreshing and free wheeling. Nomar seems to be having a great time with the other guys. For me, this is by far, better than Joe and Orel. This is the future, too. Better them than ESPN!

        1. I would prefer Joe Davis over 3 guys talking a bit too much but there are things about the broadcast that I like. A normal TV broadcast is always going to have too many commercials and I don’t know if there’s anyway around that. These three have never worked as a crew so considering that too I think they did a decent enough job.

  17. In my opinion, there are only two things wrong:

    #1 Everything they say; and

    #2 Everything they do.

    Other than that, they are fine!

  20. That was a preview of what Seager could do at 3B if he ever moves over there. He has the tools to be a gold glove caliber 3rd baseman.

    1. Why do you think that Seager can become a GG 3B? He certainly wasn’t that at SS. Having said that, I’ve said that Seager should slide over to 3B, next season. It seems like the best spot for him in the infield. Next season, Lux at SS?, JT at 2B/1B? Can JT play a full season? There is always the platoon of CT3/Kike/Muncy at 2B.

  22. This is why I like YouTube. Living in NY I am forced to watch the vast majority of games on MLB.tv, on which no post game shows are broadcast. I am now watching the post game show on YouTube.

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