After being the best team in baseball for quite some time, the Dodgers are now playing second fiddle to the Yankees and Astros who both have one more win than the Dodgers. The surging Braves are just three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the NL, having won nine games in a row. In their last 10 games, the Dodgers are .500 while the Braves are 9-1, and the Yankees and Astros are 7-3. But, this ain’t my first rodeo.
Cody Bellinger and Hyun-jin Ryu are falling as NL favorites to win the MVP and Cy Young Awards respectively… and Max Muncy and Alex Verdugo (two of the Dodgers best hitters) are on the DL. Dave Roberts can’t manage and Andrew Friedman can’t lead and this is how this is all going to end… right? Because hot teams always stay hot and cold teams always stay cold! Everyone knows that! OK, I am being very sarcastic because of all the gloom and doom, knee-jerk reactions. I remain unfazed! This ain’t my first rodeo. This ain’t the first time I’ve seen this dog and pony show.
In fact, I warned you earlier in the season that there would be bumps in the road. 5-5 is a bump… not the end of the world. Now, if the Dodgers are in the midst of the same malaise come next weekend, then I might get just a LITTLE worried. It’s not how you start… its how you finish and that is especially true of September Baseball. In fact, there’s something to be said about saving your best for last. The ATL is surging right now, but they can’t keep it up. Just watch how it plays out. We have nothing to fear, but fear itself! This ain’t my first rodeo.
As we speak, the Dodgers are one game back for being tied for the best record in baseball. They still have the biggest “run differential” in baseball. By a narrow margin, they are 4th on OB% in MLB, 5th in OPS, 5th in runs scored and 3rd in home runs. On the pitching side, they are #1 in Team ERA, #1 in Starter ERA, #6 in bullpen ERA (.02% behind SF) and #1 in Team WHIP. There is a lot to be optimistic about – did I mention that this is not my first rodeo?
When Andrew Friedman took the job as Dodger President and now GM, he was mandated to keep winning while building the farm. I know that some of you oldtimers are tired of waiting for a Championship. 31 years is too long, but Andrew Fredman has only been responsible for 5 of those 31 years. In those 5 years, he has kept the team relevant, winning the NL West all 5 years, taking the team further every year until they lost in the World Series in back-to-back years. That ain’t a failure – I know because this ain’t my first rodeo!
Jeff Luhnow and Theo Epstein rebuilt their respective team’s farm systems and returned to relevancy over a period of years: 4 t 7 to be exact! Andrew Friedman rebuilt the Dodgers farm system while winning. You are placing the blame for the other 26 years of mismanagement on Andrew Friedmans’ shoulders when you should be thanking him for putting your team in the best position it has been in for 31 years to win it all.
The statistics and the eye test tell us that the Dodgers are one of the best teams in all of baseball. Back in the day, you might have looked at Bo Derek and said “she’s an 8!” Well, I thought she was a 10 and so did everyone else. I think the Dodgers are the best team in baseball… even if they aren’t THIS WEEK! This ain’t my first rodeo… quit acting like it’s yours.
On Aug. 6, longtime columnist Dan Shaughnessy wrote in The Boston Globe, “I’ll be shocked if Dave Dombrowski is back with the Red Sox next season.” Keeping a team relevant year-over-year is difficult and I know some of you would gladly trade a World Series Championship for 10 years of misery. I would not! I believe that by getting there, year-after-year, you have a better chance of winning. This ain’t my first rodeo.
You all are free to have your own opinions, but I believe that your knee-jerk reactions are foolish and brand you as rank amateurs in the evaluation of baseball and players. You can create your own misery and wallow in your own swill, but I am having none of it because it’s ain’t my first rodeo. I write the facts… not fiction or the voices in my head.
Good News
- It was good to see Will Smith get a couple of hits last night. Hopefully, he can run off another hot streak. He caught a great game last night, but remember that Gonso is very familiar with him.
- Kenley looked good last night – hopefully he can get his confidence back.
- Actually, the bullpen was great last night: Fregusn, Garcia, May, Kelly. Baez, and Jansen all shut down the Giants.
- Gonsolin, May, and Garcia are all in the running for a post-season roster spot.
- It sounds like Alex Verdugo will not be ready until the last week of the month, providing there are no setbacks with his back (pun intended).
- Joc Pederson is looking like he is locked in.
- The return of Dick Mountain on Thursday will energize the team.
Minor League Lowdown
- The Tulsa Drillers were tied in the series with the Arkansas Travelers 2-2 and forcing a game 5 today. It’s on today at 1:05 EDT. The pitchers have not been announced.
- Rancho Cucamonga was smoked 11-2 as they were eliminated from the playoffs yesterday – Jeren Kendall went 2-4 with a 2 run HR and that was all the scoring. Michael Grove started and pitched 2 shutout innings. Next season, the kid gloves come off and I look for him to get to AAA before the year is over.
- The Loons lost Game One 6-4 in their series against the South Bend Cubs. Camargo and Valera both hit HR, but Kolek and Willeman were touched up for 6 runs. They play again tonight at Midland.
One of the responsibilities of the manager, and the front office to some extent, is managing the focus and energy levels of the team and players over the course of a long season – and the baseball season is very long. Some folks I talk to say they need to shorten it, but that’s part of the allure. The baseball season is a marathon. It takes both physical and mental endurance to excel throughout the seas ok n and into the playoffs, and there are inevitable slumps along the way.
Robert’s and Friedman know this and have tried to manage workloads, and is one of the reasons for their preference for roster flexibility…and of course the creative use of the IL.
Nevertheless, the Dodgers are stumbling towards the playoffs. Ryu, who excelled due to exceptional command, no longer has it. Bellinger has been edging closer to 2018 form for some time. Will Smith, after his hot start, is reverting to his career norm, which is not all that different from Austin Barnes.
And then there’s Kenley. I read some on this board who suggested he just needs a little time (two weeks in this case) to “work things out.” Sorry, but what afflicts Kenley cannot be ironed out with some mechanical tweaks. It’s called Old. You don’t fix Old. His velocity has seen a steady and inexorable decline for two years, and his cutyer doesn’t cut. In the playoffs where every pitch and every play is magnified in importance, the Dodgers reliance on him will be exposed.
The Astros, Braves and Yankees are peaking g at the right time, the Dodgers are crawling on all fours to the finish line. It doesn’t good.
The Dodgers are cooked. It’s over. Wait till next year. …this is how I manage disappoint..I lower my expectations so I’m pleasantly surprised when I’m wrong
I agree with you about Jansen. He’s lost velocity on the cutter and it is what happens over time with age. You called it old and you can’t fix old. I 100% agree. If he doesn’t add another pitch or if he has another pitch but doesn’t use it at all or enough then nothing is going to change.
It’s time to move on from Jansen and replace him as the closer. He is extremely vulnerable to allow at least 1 run each time he pitches because all he has to do is walk a batter or give up a bloop single and before you know it that runner is on second base in scoring position because Jansen can’t hold runners from stealing second base.
Replacing Jansen is one of the tasks Friedman needs to do in the off season along with strengthening the pitching staff in general.
And I hate to say it but Ryu was pitching over his head. His stats before he started to “struggle” were way better than his career stats and now he is coming back down to reality where his 2019 stats are starting to line up with his career stats.
More frustrating than concerning: the Dodgers are 11 – 11 since the middle of August; that has become a trend over the last several years, late season funks. Annoying that Dodgers are only 8 – 7 against the Giants for the season.
It is not my first rodeo either. Baseball is an interesting game and has its ups and downs. Let us not lose the FACT that we are still in first place, winning our division and maybe we seem a little tired now but soon rest will be coming after we clinch. If you get thrown from a horse, pick yourself up and get back on. We can do this, Go Dodgers.
AZ is only 1.5 games behind Chicago now (who may not have Javy Baez the rest of the year). Our NL West race was done back in April, but it is fun to watch the Central and the Wild Card races in both leagues.
Atl will have to reel off another 9 game winning streak if they want to surpass us in the NL. However, with 3 weeks to go we are now basically 3 losses behind NY for overall home field. Time to pick it up!
That’s one of my favourite lines – “not my first Rodeo”.
Have to back MT in this one, although can see the cause for concern.
Lots of ebbs & flows in 162 games.
That is all irrelevant once the Post Season begins.
There will be a different energy – in fact it’s common for teams that have been striving for a Playoff Birth to run out of steam having reached their target.
Hopefully we will be well rested and healed come October.
It was very nice to see Smith get some hits, hope the Dodgers corrected his batting flaws, Dodgers need his bat.
Jansen in one inning gave up a hit and a walk with one strikeout. I saw the same Jansen, one that is very scary.
The bullpen had a good game, Garcia coming in with 2 runners on and getting the last out was very good to see.
At this point I think Gonsolin, May, and Garcia are all in the running for a post-season roster spot.
The Dodgers need Verdugo in the field and his bat, hope he gets back and can play some games before the playoffs start.
Pederson in the last 30 games is playing some of his best baseball with the Dodgers, now if he can stay that way?
Hill could be so important coming out of the pen, in fact maybe we see him in the ninth inning in a game or two if Jansen can´t get back to being what the Dodgers need from him.
I do agree with SoCalBum on our record against the Giants.
It’s been a good year for the boys in blue. That said, there are some red flags popping up here and there. On offense, the at bat approach and quality appears to have regressed. I’m well aware that missing Muncy and Verdugo has greatly impacted the lineup. Nevertheless, the hitters are swinging at pitches off the plate more than they did earlier. Last night, all Beede had to do was throw a slider 6 inches of the plate and the hitters would chase. Mostly unsuccessfully.
The starting pitchers also look tired.
Going to the game today. I was hoping to see a clinching celebration. Oh well! I’ll report on what I see during the game or tomorrow.
Cmon Dodger patch your comment about Belly is over the top! Barnes really! Even tho Belly hasn’t been able to sustain the first 2 months his OPS since then is still well over .900 and the last momenth over .1000! Really! So they’ve lost some focus and momentum. This still is a very good team that can win a WS. Keep the faith and go see Mark at the rodeo! That poor horse!
The vast majority of posters here are well-seasoned fans. It’s not anyone’s 1st rodeo. That it isn’t yours doesn’t make you right.
Both in 2017 and this season have seen the Dodgers cool down in September. It’s true that in ’17, the team woke up in time for the post-season, but you really don’t want to rely on that. The team should be peaking about now, playing its best ball and getting ready for October.
Baseball is replete with examples of teams who got hot at the right time (I am reminded of the mediocre Giants teams that never won a division but won the Series thrice with hot Octobers) and teams that didn’t (’69 Cubs, ’51 Dodgers). While the Dodgers might be really good again in October, the trends aren’t good.
I am most concerned about the starting pitching. Ryu, Kerhsaw and Buehler have been the real strength of the team. They almost always have had the advantage over opponent’s starters, pitched deep into games so that the mediocre bullpen is less exposed, and have usually allowed the Dodgers to win when they started.
I don’t know if it is fatigue, problems communcating with a new primary starting catcher, or what it is, if the big 3 aren’t going well the Dodgers will have a real problem. The Nationals and Astros both have 3 top-end starters. Other teams not so much, but it’s hard to project who the Dodgers will face. The team is going to have to score more runs if Ryu et al are going to pitch short innings and give up lots of runs.
In September (small sample size) Ryu and Kershaw both have 6.75 ERAs; Buehler’s is 10.80. The team OPS against is .882 in September for the starters as a group – the highest month before September is .693. The Dodgers’ advantage in starting pitching is the most important reason that they have been winning and it has evaporated over the past 2 weeks.
So – just how do you flip this switch? Suddenly Ryu pitches better?
Suddenly Ryu pitched worse, so suddenly he could pitch better. Not saying that’s what will happen, but moves in either direction can happen suddenly.
And Kershaw and Buelher too?
Absolutely
DR, Keep in mind that the Dodger bats have bailed the team out very consistently for most of the season. Even when the starting rotation fell behind, the bats were there to protect a lead or win in later innings. That has not been the case for a while. There is little consistency at bat. The case of No HR, No Win, has loomed over the Dodger bats as they are not hitting, in general, very well. 5 or 6 hits in a game is not conducive to going through the playoffs. We’ve been hit by some injuries, but so have other teams. We are deep as far as replacements go, but it has to get better if we are to contend.
What makes me nervous is how this team has, for the last two years, forgotten how to hit come late August/early September. This team, with Cody, Corey, Chris, Justin, et al, has, again, for the last two years, fallen apart in Sept. They seem to be doing it again and that makes me nervous. Please realize, this is not me bashing the team. I get the grind of baseball and understand there are ups and downs but, jeez, here we go again. And remember, this is not my first rodeo.
I’ve actually never been to a rodeo, nor do I care to go. However, more importantly, here’s today’s lineup which will get us back on track:
Joc (RF)
Seager
Pollock (LF)
Belly (1b)
Beaty (3b)
CT3 (CF)
Lux
Martin
Urias
Interesting that Beaty is at 3B. I’ve been wanting to see how Beaty handles 3B at the major league level because I hate to say it but Turner is getting up there in age and might need some extra time off next year and with all the talented position players we have, playing time is at a premium (I think that is the saying). It would be nice if Beaty could be Turner’s back up at 3B.
Glad to see Taylor chosen over Hernandez. I’ve never understood why Dave Roberts seems to favor Hernandez other than Roberts as a player was a better defender than a hitter so he probably values defense over offense and believes Hernandez is a great defender.
I see Roberts is sticking with Seager batting 2nd. Roberts is extremely slow in making an obvious change.
Finally Seager comes through. Hopefully the slump is over.
Before Taylor came aboard, Seager was #2 in the lineup, then JT. I’m okay with him there. He had his best season batting #2.
Mark, you continually make the illogical case that because some fans have “the sky is falling” reactions to the daily events around the Dodgers it means the issues facing this team are somehow not significant. I’m pretty sure that both things can be true at the same time. It seems more interesting to me to address the actual issues. We can disagree about those, but still have semi intelligent discourse. Complaining about people complaining is not very interesting.
But it totally illogical. They have played at a high level all year and now are .500 over a couple of weeks and the entire past is thrown out the window and the past two weeks are the reality?
Explain that “logic” to me.
What I am saying is I put a whole lot more stock in 4 months history than 2 weeks. Smith was 5 for 37… until yesterday when he “flipped” the switch and got two hits.
Mark is right, it is illogical. Would you sell all your stock if the Stock Market had a few bad days? Ask Chicken Strips. Does that qualify for a Chicken Dinner? lol.
Excellent analogy.
Dodger news:
JT tweaked his ankle a little Friday night diving for a ball. Hence he’ll hopefully get today off and be back Tuesday in Baltimore
More Dodger news:
JT won his appeal for that suspension for “bumping” into the ump in SD. No suspension for JT.
Muncy will be activated Friday in NY.
Magic number 3
I’m pretty sure I jinxed the Dodgers when I said I was hoping for home field advantage throughout the PS.
Atl finally lost. Be nice to add a game to that NL lead today!
It does really matter how you are playing late in the season. For example, if a pitcher who pitched great in the early months is not doing well at all later on, it could be just a slump, or a regression to his mean, or maybe he is hurt in some way, or maybe he has mechanical problems, or maybe he is worn down by the long season. Some of these reasons evoke more optimism for a return to great form than others.
Baseball put in the various “best record gets home field” rules to try to create more interest, and to motivate teams to keep trying to win, rather than just rest everyone if far ahead. The Dodgers should have motivation, so I my best guess is that they have some players who played over their heads in the early months. Hoping that a number of them will get hot again, particularly against the better playoff pitching, where managers will go to the pen early, use starters in relief to lock down a game, is being optimistic. The Astros are playing very well, the Yankees are primarily doing so, the Braves and Cards have been very hot. We will play some of these teams if we advance. If you would prefer to play a cold team than a hot one, I am with you.
I know that at some point, the Dodgers will score another run, I just don’t know when. Maybe they will get 18 in one game. Right now, they are making some very average pitchers look like stars. Soon enough, they will be facing much better ones. There are a number of players who are not hitting at all. And I don’ know how someone can get hot when the lineup changes every day. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a team where mostly the same players are good enough to play against lefthanders and righthanders.? Stars, not platoon players.
Runs!
William
You make valid points.
I think having watched the Dodgers in the Post Season, that it will be “alright on the night”.
We have a great Team, with plenty of depth.
We have the experience of 2 WS defeats. Doc will have learned, the players will have learned.
This is the year.
Well today it was all and nothing!
Bellinger’s last out seems to fit a pattern that I’ve noticed. If seems as if he’s been hitting under a lot of pitches, resulting in lots of high fly balls and pop -ups.
2D2 got it right in his post above. The Dodgers, including Belli, have been swinging outside the zone too often, chasing instead of being patient. It’s quite simple.
Gotta be impressed with Maeda out of pen today. If he can deliver that in the playoffs we’ll be fine! Glad we’re not playing Houston right now! They’re just showing off!
Magic Number 2
Just a thought players today are playing different positions, they are called platoon players I was wondering if owners today are thinking of banishing large contracts since platoon players don’t make as much as everyday position players. Remember the game where Martin play Third and the relief pitcher was on first base. I know Major League Baseball Players Association wouldn’t allow this but it was just a thought.
The Dodgers hit about 7 balls hard last night for outs. That’s baseball. Frustrating sometimes. Could they have played any worse than they did in August of 2017? As I get frustrated with the spring training approach to games I try to remind myself that everything turned out fine in 2017 with the exception of losing the World Series.
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What’s going on with the pitchers is a bit confusing though. They’re kind of stretching guys out but not really. They’ve moved Maeda to the pen but treating him like a long reliever and not the role we envision him in come October. It’s as if they’re preparing to have quick hooks or using an opener. They may go with Kershaw, Ryu, Buehler, and Hill but they got Urias, Stripling, Maeda, and Gonsolin ready for multiple innings if they go with an opener or yank someone quickly.
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I agree with Mark that Yimi is getting a real look.
Dodgers have always had me as a fan firstly. I’ll die a Dodger fan even if they moved back to Brooklyn and even if they never win another World Series. Those two things will have a far better outcome. I feel very certain Dodgers will live and die in L.A. and’ll have many championships won in their future. Maybe they won’t win one this year but that won’t chase me away. Dodgers have the ability to play great baseball every time they take the field but they don’t always. They don’t win every game they should. They’re not always hot but it’s good to see they mostly are hot. Just gotta hope they will bring their A-game in this post season. I’m glad Jansen is the closer as I’m glad Kershaw remains a Dodger as I’m glad Turners legs held up. These guys have given us their best and deserve a ring. These are the best chances of that happening. I can’t really say why that’s so important to me as a fan – been there, done that. Even if they win for me it’s still “wait till next year” . Bring us your A-game Dodgers, again!