Let’s Talk Playoffs

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1. The Dodgers are innovating again:

   https://theathletic.com/1121097/2019/08/07/in-advance-of-rule-change-dodgers-are-turning-prospects-into-two-way-players/

2. Jim Bowden on Minor League Players ready RIGHT NOW:

   1. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
   The Dodgers did the right thing by refusing to include Lux in any deadline deal, just as they did previously with Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Corey Seager. It’s a decision that Dodgers fans will be happy about in the long run. However, Lux also might factor in the Dodgers’ pennant race anyway, all by himself. The truth is he’s an offensive upgrade right now at second base and shortstop. The Dodgers are well-protected for an injury to a middle infielder, and quite frankly, they know they have a legitimate table-setter ready to go if their offense at some point starts to struggle (which is admittedly unlikely). Lux, 21, is slashing .358/.430/.626 with 22 home runs and 9 stolen bases between Double A and Triple A after just 94 games.

   4. Victor Gonzalez, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
   Pay attention to what Gonzalez is doing for the Dodgers in the minor leagues. He’s throwing 94-96 mph from the left side and has given up just one to a left-handed hitter since they moved him to the bullpen. He could end up being a legitimate lefty specialist for L.A.

   1. Very pleased for Victor. He has been a warrior especially when things were not going well and was always just below the surface almost undetected. His GO/AO at OKC is 3.00 and his HR/9 in his career is 0.7.

      Lux actually has a 44-game on base streak going back to Tulsa.

      1. DC, Victor did not go unnoticed by you!!

   2. Generally I like to see a young player succeed at their level before being promoted. Let the player enjoy success. I agree players should be pushed, but not to an extreme just to get them to the ML. The Dodgers development team seems to understand this as well as if not better than any other organization. They also seem to know when it is the best time to send them down from ML to reinforce and to reset success. This is a talent that is no longer going unnoticed by baseball hierarchy. The Dodgers talent is good, of course. But it is their development where they stand out.

      That being said, I honestly see no reason for Gavin Lux to stay in MiLB. He has reached base in 44 consecutive games, and his defense has improved considerably. He says that he has played enough 2B to be comfortable. If it were not for the boatload of 2B on the roster either on the 25 man or IL, Lux would already be on the 25-man roster. IMO Lux being kept down is not a clock issue, as there is no doubt in my mind that 2B is his job to lose next year. The “problem” is Kris Negron, Max Muncy, Jedd Gyorko, CT3, Kike’. Not one of them have the ceiling that Lux has, but they are all veteran ML players that “might” be more helpful in a playoff crunch. But you do not know what the player is made of unless he gets that shot. Verdugo finally got his shot, Buehler got his shot, Smith got his shot, Beaty got his shot…and now Gonsolin and May are getting their shot. Since the Dodger development team seems to know when that time is, I will defer to their judgement. I am very much looking forward for Lux to ascend to MLB, and to stay.

3. Brett de Geus is quickly becoming a player to watch. I have been watching him and writing about his games all year. He always seems to be on. He was a 33rd draft pick (2017) out of Cabrillo JC, but he has certainly pitched above his draft status. I hope he gets that promotion to Tulsa for the last couple of weeks. It is deserving. Zach McKinstry is another 33rd round draft pick (2016), and he has reached AAA at the age of 24, and is not disappointing. Sure, it is only 13 ABs, but he has 6 hits including a HR and double. Compare his year to Errol Robinson who was the 6th round draft pick in 2016.

   1. As you know, I am a Zach McKinstry fan. I am a fan of all minor leaguers, especially the Dodger youngsters whom I follow, but I have few favorites. Zach is one of them. I have to give credit to his hard work and the development team that has helped him tap into his power reserve. He is a player. Don’t you just love writing about 33rd round selections?

4. Joc again looks confident and comfortable. He is hitting the ball hard. Must be time for an off day, followed by two games with lefty starters, then a righty starter, and then another off day.

   1. and while we’re at it, why not throw him at SS for a few days

   2. Yup, the unpredictable schedule of a platoon player with .243 = .176 splits. If Joc wants to be on the field everyday, he needs to hit left-handers. Pretty simple.

5. Prospects who can help postseason contenders – Jim Callis

   3. Gavin Lux, SS/2B, Dodgers (LAD No. 1, MLB No. 10)
   If this list was based solely on talent and readiness, Lux would rank No. 1. He has no clear opportunity to 2019 playing time with the Dodgers, whose roster only will get more crowded once David Freese, Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor return from injuries. That said, Lux might be their best present option at second base and he’s hitting .452/.537/.841 since arriving in Triple-A a month ago.

6. I just don’t see the Dodgers using Lux at second in the playoffs. Too many veteran options and if Pollock is healthy he’s in our playoff lineup. Not Lux. His time will come next year.

7. The Yankees and Astros keep winning, along with the Dodgers. Besides just enjoying the games, or watching younger players, the rest of this regular season is really just a precursor to the playoffs. Which of these teams has the best record, is very important. I suppose that anything can happen, but the prospect of playing one of those two in the World Series where they have the extra home game with the DH to use, is concerning. I know that many franchises would love to be where we are now, but there is a championship awarded each season, and we haven’t gotten even one in a long time. So it is all about how it finishes for us.

   Our injuries are a problem, and hopefully we get some of these back. Hill is the key, to me. He almost always gives us six great innings in a Series game, only to be taken out by Roberts and then sabotaged by the bullpen. Without him, who is the fourth starter? Are any of the other ones, including the recent call-ups, capable of stopping the great hitters of the Yankees and Astros? Our bullpen is looking somewhat better, but not being tested much. Kolarek looks like another bargain basement pickup, and we see why Tampa Bay didn’t value him. Jansen did look good the other day, can he regain some semblance of past form? What will Kelly do with men on base? Obviously, the game is nine innings, and the last few always give us great problems in the World Series. As to the lineup, we desperately need Seager to return to his earlier form before he got hurt again. Without that, we are depending too much on Pederson, whom I don’t trust at all. Plus what will Will Smith do against top pitching?

   You know that all the top teams are scouting us every game, their scouting focus is significantly on us. Some of our hitters have disappeared in the last two World Series, probably due to being precisely scouted. I hope that Pollock can do something significant. We know that we are going to see lefthanded pitchers out of the bullpen, and we have to have some righthanded bats whom we can put in there, because Pederson cannot hit lefties, and Bellinger is regressing somewhat at the plate. The World Series, if we make it, will feature an AL team with a bunch of great hitters, against our team of mostly overachievers or very young players. It’s a daunting prospect, but if we could get Hill back, we would have starting pitching to match theirs, albeit not the bullpens. So I’m very much enjoying the exciting late-inning rallies, but wondering if they are not somewhat misleading, because they are coming against middling teams. Except for the concept that these great last-inning wins show that we are a team which just has a winning magic, this doesn’t fee to me like a World Series Champion, it seems as if we are once again a bit short of the top talent we need against the very best foes. But of course there is a chance that we will see a surprise opponent in the Series, like the Indians or Twins. In the NL playoffs, we’ve got to get past two of the Braves, Cubs or Nationals.

   1. True

8. When I think of the name Jo Jo, I am reminded of Jo Jo White and Jo Jo Starbuck. If Jo Jo Gray can emulate their successes, the Dodgers indeed will have a superstar. Jo Jo Gray is as much of an untouchable for me as the Dodgers have. I know Jeter Downs was considered the prize, but for me Gray became an instant favorite and the one I was going to watch. the The succession is lining up…May and Gonsolin in 2020, Gray in 2021, Uceta, Grove, Rooney not far behind. Then Jimmy Lewis and Braydon Fisher as high schooler unknowns. Another Dustin May????

   The reliever succession may not appear as impressive because the names are not widely known, and they do not get a lot of pub, but they really are stacking up. I have long been an advocate for a strong bullpen, and in two years, I think the Dodgers will have a bullpen that will be at the top of the league as well.

9. Not to mention jo jo gunne.

10. Ironic you mentioned Jo Jo White, one of my favorite Celtics players along with Hondo and the whole team back then. Although I am excited about the post season and all the minor leaguers maybe on the playoff roster, I am enjoying how the Dodgers are playing now.

    1. Boo Celtics. It makes me think of Jo Jo White and the Chris Farley sales pitch during Tommy Boy

11. I really don’t want to face Washington in playoffs with that starting staff! Rooting for them to not make it! Go Phillies!

12. If anyone is interested in odds, the Dodgers are now actually slightly lower than even money to win the NL, with the Braves second at about 4-1. The Astros are even money to win the AL, with the Yankees around +240. Houston is the favorite to win the title at about +235, with the Dodgers a reasonably close second at +275, and the Yankees a more distant third at around +450. Everyone else is a substantial longshot on the board.

13. I do not mind being a skeptic at the trade deadline or the offseason to suggest (which is all that LAD will allow me to do) transactions that I think might improve the team. I am as impatient as are most fans, but thankfully AF and his staff are not. But are we that jaded now that we automatically discount the team that has won more games in all of MLB, has the best winning percentage of all MLB teams, and has the best run differential in MLB? I concede that the NYY and Houston offense is better than LAD, but not enough where run production has been diluted. NYY has scored more runs than LAD but not Houston.

    It takes more than just a good offense to win it all. NYY starting pitching is not even average. Their best starter is Domingo German with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.087 WHIP. They have no other starter with an ERA south of 4.60. Ross Stripling is not considered good enough for the Dodgers rotation by most fans, and yet he is a better pitcher than Domingo German.

    Would I feel better with a more proven bullpen? Absolutely!! But with May and Gonsolin pitching well, there are multiple options opening up. Once Urias’ reliever status is solidified, I believe he will be a tremendous option for late inning relief. Joe Kelly has been pitching great of late, and what is said? Let’s wait and see what he does with runners on base. Aroldis Chapman is considered elite but has more blown saves than does KJ. Kenta Maeda continues to show that he cannot sustain a full year as a quality SP. But he doesn’t have to in the post season. I bet he can throw one inning if he is told to just go for it. I see a 2017 post season in Maeda. 9 games, 10.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K. His worst game was Game 5 against Houston, but whose wasn’t?

    Joc continues to get blasted and yet he has an OPS of .870 against RHP. AJ Pollock continues to get negative remarks, and yet he has a 1.076 OPS against LHP. Does anyone believe AJ Pollock will throw a fit if he is not the everyday CF and needs to platoon with Joc in LF? I have no idea if that is going to happen, but AJ Pollock is the consummate team player and will do whatever it takes to win. CT3 has a .908 against LHP. Verdugo .807 OPS against RHP and .843 against LHP. Kris Negron .889 against LHP.

    Where would NYY be without DJLM, and where would LAD be with DJLM. We will never know, so even I have moved on. I am more than optimistic going into battle with this team. We can all look at stats and pick our favorites to make our case. But the game is still very simple. Score more runs than the other team and win the game. No team has done that better than LAD. While I respect NYY and Houston as elite teams, I do not believe the Dodgers roster will take a back seat to either team.

    1. Great post AC – really strong convincing points in helping fans stay objective when evaluating the Dodgers. It’s easy for many of us to covet what other ball clubs have and lose appreciation for what our own team has.

       I often wonder how the Dodgers would compare with the Yankees and Astros if they were allowed to use a DH, if the Dodgers played in a park with a short porch in RF, and also if the Dodgers had a team as bad as the Orioles in their division – playing a team like Baltimore within the division gets the Yankees at least 15 automatic wins. The Rockies are the last place team in the NL West and no one would consider games at Coors Field automatic in the Win column.

       There’s no way to know for sure, but having fan blog sites allows us to debate this sort of stuff. If you put the Dodgers in the same situation as the Yanks (DH, Orioles, etc.), they are comfortably ahead in terms of win/loss – just my opinion.

    2. The Dodgers will just need to take advantage of the Yankees weakness their starting pitching.

       As for the Astros, they have only 1 left handed pitcher (a starter) on their entire staff. The Dodgers offense is a lot better against right handed pitching.

       As for the National League teams, I just don’t see any team beating the Dodgers 3 out of 5 games and 4 out of 7 games. But anything can happen.

       I see a third consecutive World Series appearance for the Dodgers.

       You said “AJ Pollock continues to get negative remarks, and yet he has a 1.076 OPS against LHP. Does anyone believe AJ Pollock will throw a fit if he is not the everyday CF and needs to platoon with Joc in LF? I have no idea if that is going to happen, but AJ Pollock is the consummate team player and will do whatever it takes to win.”

       That’s what is best for the team including keeping Bellinger off of 1B where he injured his shoulder multiple times. Also Pollock is injury prone and maybe starting him only against left handed pitching and pinch hitting would let him heal up.

       Speaking of injuries, the Dodgers should let the guys that are on the IL fully get healthy and not rush them back. The team is so deep that they can afford to do that.

       1. What in the world makes you think the Dodgers will/have/would rush anyone off the IL?

    3. AC, I believe Pollock should be man enough to accept a platoon with Joc if that’s what the management team thinks is best. Any promises made during contract negotiations should be off after spending that much time on the IL. If he rakes against lefties I don’t care how much they’re paying him. They can reevaluate his position next year and let him earn a full-time gig. I do think they’re going to regret giving him a 5-yr deal. It doesn’t appear he will hit any off his opt outs.

       1. Hawkeye, I do not think AJ would have any problem whatsoever platooning with Joc. If the team believes that is what is best for the Dodgers to win the Championship, I believe he willingly accept that role. I think one of the reasons that AF signed AJ was because he is a team first player. Not for a minute do I think he would volunteer that role, but he would accept whatever was needed to WIN.

          1. The odd thing about Pollock this season is that he is not hitting RHP. So, a platoon of Joc/Pollock is a real possibility if he doesn’t start balancing out. His career splits are much more even than this season illustrates. He has also been injured, twice. I also don’t see him having a problem platooning and he can give us a real boost if he’s healthy. At this point in the season, I’m not sure I trust him completely to hit consistently. Also keep in mind that we survived Pollock’s absence while he was on the IL. We have the players to fill in, but if Pollock doesn’t play, we may see Belli back at RF with the 1B platoon being standard.

             All the NL playoff teams will have to come through L.A. and our home field advantage should come through as it has all season. I see Houston as the major threat to the Dodger WS win. But let’s take it one step at a time.

    4. When the Dodgers are fully healthy:

       Seager hasn’t hit left handed pitching. Maybe they ought to give Seager rest against lefties and have Taylor start against lefties at SS.

       Get Bellinger back to RF and platoon Beaty (although he hit lefties in AAA) and Freese at 1B.

       I don’t care what someone has done in their career, if someone can’t hit lefties or righties this season then platoon them. Do you want to continue to see Seager hit like Barnes against lefties?

14. From Keith Law:

    JSG: What do the Dodgers do with Gavin Lux? He appears, judging from his small AAA stat line, to be MLB-ready or close to it. But Seager can’t be moved to third while Turner’s there, and Turner is still productive.
    Keith Law: Second base?

    John: I read this evaluation of Dustin May earlier today – how many people in the industry think like this? “He’s not part of the exciting crop of starters that present legit upside for years to come. His sinker has life at 95+, but he didn’t have great command with the pitch. His cutter is solid and was effective here against the lowly Cardinals, but that’s it. His curveball is nothing to write home about, and I’m worried the heater is too susceptible to blowup games without enough upside.”
    Keith Law: Nobody. That’s a big miss.

    romorr: Dean Kremer has looked sharp of late, is he still back end? What could he do to raise his profile, if he can that is. TY
    Keith Law: Still a back end guy with that cross-fire delivery.

    Zihuatanejo: Austin Barnes almost immediately started killing it in AAA after looking done in the bigs. What are the odds he be a good (or at least serviceable) major league hitter?
    Keith Law: Near nil.

    Chip: Surprised by Will Smith’s start, or has he always had this power?
    Keith Law: Dodgers altered his swing to unlock more power before 2018. He’s legit.

    Jason: Has Cartaya progressed to the point the Dodgers would be better served dealing Ruiz in the winter to help an area of need?
    Keith Law: IMO, yes, he has.

    Craig Goldstein chat @ Baseball Prospectus

    steelydanu (Los Angeles): Hello…your thoughts on Dustin May’s performance his 1st two outings and whether it warrants keeping him up the rest of the year. Would you project as a starter for 2020?

    Craig Goldstein: I think he’s looked really good especially since his curveball command hasn’t really been there. The cutter/slider thing he throws looked better in the second outing and the 97 and arm-side run looks as effortless as ever. I think he should be up most of the time but might get optioned as Friedman likes to churn the bullpen roster and he’s got options. Definitely a starter for 2020 in my view.

    Dylan (MA): What is wrong with Corey Seager? He has barely been above league average(101 DRC+) this season after putting up MVP type seasons in ’16-’17. He is hitting a career high amount of fly balls, but the thump just isn’t there. His exit velocity is substantially down to 88.2mph, which puts him in the 34th percentile(he has been in the 87th in the past). Is he still hurt or something?

    Craig Goldstein: Yeah, I think he’s been fighting a few different injuries on top of coming back from a serious one. It looked like he was getting going right before his last injury, and he’s been swinging it a bit better the last few games.

    Craig Edwards Chat @ FanGraphs

    What do you see as May’s role with the Dodgers the rest of the season and playoffs?
    Craig Edwards I expect at some point he’ll head to the bullpen and be a weapon in the playoffs. The Dodgers obviously disappointed at the trade deadline given their current bullpen, but they’ve pieced it together before and May might help them doing it again.

    Who do you think is more likely to win the World Series: (1), the Astros or Dodgers, or (2), the field?
    Craig Edwards Our playoff odds think that’s a pretty good bet with the Astros at 28.7 and the Dodgers at 16.9 for a total of 45.6 versus 54.4 for the field. GIve me one more team and I take them, but right now, I still lean field.

15. I really do not see how the Dodgers can keep Lux at AAA. I think you have to find out what he can do. Yes, Kike, Taylor and Negron are veterans, but no one has a ceiling like Lux. If Lux does not hit well, what have you lost. I was a Kike fan at one time, but not any more. He had his chance to be the every day second baseman, and did not seize the opportunity.

    I think Smith has done a very good job handling the pitching staff. He certainly looks like a good clutch hitter right now. He is also pretty good defensively. I believe he will be the play off catcher.

    There will have to be some house cleaning this winter. I really hope guys like Beaty, Garlick and Rios get traded. Beaty has the best future with the Dodgers. I like all three, but they need to have an opportunity some where else. I could also see Joc, Kike, Stripling, and Maeda be traded. I hope they sign Ryu.

16. OK… I think I’ll go against the grain and stick with Josiah, a cool name IMO ( A boy who would become King)… That’s the ticket…
    I’m an A.J. Pollock fan and I’m sticking with it…
    I know it’s been said many times, but this STL series was an eye opener… May and Tony G. were eye openers and last but not least welcome home Mr. Kelly

17. The three best teams today, and the next few years, are Dodgers, Houston and Yankees, so the Dodgers must sign Gerrit Cole, in no way should the Dodgers allow those two teams to sign Cole. That leaves Houston with two 36 or 37 year old pitchers and Yankees with their mediocre rotation. Cole’s signature also affects Boston, Cubs, Nats, Phillies and Cardinals. With Ryu and Hill 33-35 million of the books will go, that money goes to Cole. Hill is replaced with Urías and Ryu with Cole.
    1 Kershaw
    2 Cole
    3 Buehler
    4 Urías
    5 Maeda / May
       Gonsolin
       Stripling
       Gray

    1. Would I like it? Hell to the yeah! Will it happen? Hell to the no, just not in their DNA. Signing AJ surprised me because they gave up a draft pick but it was offset by the pick they received for Grandal. Long term deals, especially for pitchers generally don’t turn out well and the Dodgers have a lot of pitching in the pipeline. They may resign Ryu but he has Boras as his agent so not much of a home town discount and at least 3 years. They also have to set aside money for Corey, Cody and Buehler as they hit free agency down the road. Corey, Cody and Urias all are represented by Boras as well. The bidding on Cole may get out of hand and AF won’t overpay.

       1. There are certain players that deserve the risk, those are the special players, they should not be put all the players in the same bag. Cole strengthens the Dodgers, in no way is in decline he is young. Cole’s firm weakens Houston and leaves him with two 36 or 37-year-old pitchers, affects Yankees and forces them to go look for Strasburg or search for a trade and weaken their farms, strasburg that is a high-risk player, Houston forces him to seek a trade or give the opportunity to his young MLB players. Cole benefits the Dodgers in many ways, he is young, strong, he is from the area, he knows what the Dodgers mean and he is entering his best years, and looking at how the market has behaved it is possible that he will be given a lot of money but not As much as you think, you can’t all players in the same bag. This is win, win for the Dodgers.

    2. Why do so many fans want to overpay for a pitcher who is headed into his declining years? Yes, there are exceptions (Verlander), but not many. 5 years/$150 million is about right, but he’s going to want 8 years/$275 million…

       It’s possible Urias, Gonsolin and May could all be as good as Cole… or better.

18. Among other things, I believe that Lux could add another bat that would enhance the Dodgers chances vis a vis the DH should they reach the WS. Lux himself would likely not DH, but his presence might free up another bat (e.g., Muncy) for that role.

    I am not a huge fan of including Barnes on the playoff roster, because a small sample of AAA hotness doesn’t convince me of anything. That could disappear in an instant. However, carrying 3 catchers is not totally outrageous for the Dodgers, considering that all of our catchers can credibly play other positions, and the addition of Lux gives us another legit backup at short.

19. If they put Lux in 2B with their SS reach, with their strong SS arm and soft hands and say the scouting report that has a 25-25 potential, what are we talking about here? That is an incredible player, we are talking, possibly, of the best 2B of the team since Jackie Robinson, wow that is incredible if Lux plays at that level that is projected, this is very exciting !!!

20. I see no need to have two light hitting catchers on the playoff roster. It’s either Barnes or Martin. If healthy Freese, Kike, CT3, and a catcher take up 4 of the 5 bench spots. Another LH bat(Beaty) or someone who can run(Negron) makes more sense to me. Even Gyorko makes more sense.

21. Did anyone see Willie Tree Trunks diving catch last night?

    Think he might be a bit better than some predicted.

    1. His defense is growing roots.

       1. Bums – I just watched it again and guess what?

          Wrong Calhoun!!

          It’s his Dad, the Angels one, not Texas

          LOL

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