Last Thursday AC completed a review of all nine Dodgers minor league teams. It was an exhaustive review in terms of its depth and probably a bit exhaustive for the author. AC looked at the players, from his perspective, who are on an uphill trajectory. He included 45 players, some on a seemingly quick ascent and others on a more slow but steady climb. The list certainly included some surprises such as Parker Curry and Connor Mitchell. Surprises in that they might not have been expected to progress this year as they have. Others might be considered as replacements for some on the Top-30 list.
AC and I are of one accord with regard to youngsters that might be on a bit of a downhill slide. This is a rugged hill, perhaps more mountainous than hilly, and neither of us wants to write about the struggles players are having and may be considered to be disappointments. First, it is simply more fun and rewarding to write about risers than it is to write about those that have fallen back or not progressed as expected. Expectations are a bit risky in any event as they are personal for each of us and for the players quite often tied to their drafting position. Certainly, drafting teams have expectations depending on the rounds in which the players were selected or on scouting reports for international signings.
AC didn’t leave me a whole lot of wiggle room as I really wouldn’t remove anyone from his “risers” list. I have only a couple I might add but am looking at another level that contains players that I see that are swimming just below the surface or are at a plateau in their climb up the MiLB mountain. Just think what it could be like if our politicians had the will and determination of these young men and just never gave up or caved to pressures.
Oklahoma City Dodgers (AAA) – I understand this is a level that must be filled with players that have been at or are presently at a level in which they can possibly contribute at the MLB level. Therefore a number of these players might be on that plateau and seemingly stuck there.
Connor Joe (26) has been Mr. Reliability with the Dodgers. Listed as a left fielder he has played more first base than any other position this year. In his minor league career, he has played more third base than the outfield. In 60 games with OKC in 2019, he has a triple slash of .293/.432/.510 and an OPS of .942. His OBP is the 6th best in the entire league while his OPS is tops with OKC. He leads the team with 53 run and 48 walks. His K/BB is almost 1.00 at 52/48. Joe is hitting .288 with RISP and the right-handed hitter has an average of .323 against left-handers and .281 against right-handers. He had 15 at-bats with the Giants to begin the season.
Right-hander Kevin Quackenbush (30) has pitched 207.2 innings at the MLB level. His highlight years were 2014 and 2016 with the San Diego Padres. Now 30, he has been a strong late-innings reliever for the Dodgers. In 41 innings over 36 appearances, he has posted a 2.85 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 63 strikeouts and 9 walks. In his last 10 appearances over 9.2 innings, he has an ERA of 0.93, a WHIP of less the 1.00 with 18 strikeouts and no walks.
DJ Peters (23) has been a bit of an enigma but I have been a consistent fan. He is just 23, last December, at a step below MLB. Strikeouts have been the strike against him (no pun intended). His power potential cannot be ignored so in between the K and the HR he has to find a middle ground. It is way too soon to declare victory but his time with OKC is encouraging. In 14 games Peters has a slash line of .380/.484/.700 with 9 extra-base hits among 19 hits with 13 RBI. He has struck out 12 times and walked 11. I suspect the strikeout, which is not a crime of capital punishment anymore, will always be a bit of an issue with DJ. The take away will be what he does with his non-strikeout at-bats as he at least reduces them.
Tulsa Drillers (AA) – AC covered this ground like a bloodhound but I have a couple of players that go mostly unnoticed who have some potential to make it to a higher level (s).
Nolan Long (25) – 16th round 2015 – at 6’10”/255-lb. is one of the tallest players in the Dodgers system so it is difficult not to notice him in team pictures. The big right-hander had an exceptional time with the Quakes in 2018 before his promotion to the Drillers. This year he is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.21 over 24 appearances and 42 innings pitched. He has given up just 27 hits with a BAA of 1.76 along with 57 strikeouts and 28 walks. His K/BB ratio has gone down this year so he must get back to his former ratio.
The invisible man is left-hander Victor Gonzalez (23) who was signed back in 2013 out of Vera Cruz, Mexico. He lost the 2017 season due to injury. Gonzalez outgrew the California League this year after 8 appearances with the Quakes and has been a versatile member of the Drillers staff over his next 12 appearances, eight of them starts. He is 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA over 43.1 innings pitched with 42 strikeouts and 14 walks. In his last 10 appearances, he has an ERA of 1.89. In his last four starts, he gave up four earned runs in 22 innings. Since then he has been used in long and short relief and given up no runs in 7.2 innings.
This is a bit unfair to others perhaps but Zach McKinstry (24) – 33rd round 2016 – is one of my personal favorite players so he gets special treatment although I think it has been earned. He is a grinder having played at four positions – 2B (49 games), SS ( 16 games), 3B (8 games), OF (2 games). His triple slash in 2019 is .270/.338/.472 with a career-high 12 home runs and 45 RBI. He is hitting .301 in 73 at-bats with RISP. The left-handed hitter is hitting .294 against left-handers and .264 against right-handers. This guy will make it to MLB, most likely in a utility role.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A+) – there is one Quake that I think is flying under the radar or swimming just below the surface.
Outfielder Donovan Casey (23) – 20th round 2017 – is a mainstay of the Quakes offense slowly overtaking Devin Mann and is on fire since the All-Star performance. On the season he has slashed .277/.348/.513 with 15 home runs, 53 RBI, 64 runs scored and 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts. The right-handed Casey is just behind Mann is several offensive categories and near the top is some. In league stats he is 2nd in runs scored (64), 2nd in total bases (163), 4th in OPS (.861), 4th in SLG (513), 8th in stolen bases (18),5th in RBI (53), 6th in hits (88). Casey is hitting .329 with 7 home runs and 19 RBI in 20 games since the All-Star game. He has 10 outfield assists playing all three outfield positions. In the post-All-Star game period, he has cut down his K/BB ratio from 4/1 to 2/1.
Great Lakes Loons (A)
My main candidate and a candidate for the riser list is right-hander Justin Hagenman (22) – 23 rd round 2018 – who has been arguably the Loons best relief pitcher this year. He has appeared in 20 games over 45.1 innings pitched and posted a 1.79 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and a BAA of .178. He has 4 appearances in which he pitched 4 or more innings. His others have ranged from 2 innings to one hitter which he struck out with the bases loaded. In his last 10 games, he has allowed 2 earned runs in 27 innings pitched for a 0.67 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP. He struck out 26 and walked 4.
Great Lakes has several more high profile players as pointed out by AC. I gave some consideration to James Outman (22) and Dillon Paulson(22). However, I settled on outfielder Chris Roller (22) – 30th round 2017. He came to the Loons later in the season so has played only 51 games. He has had a 12-game hitting streak and an 11-game streak. Perhaps it is mostly a coincidence but the Loons took off to win the first half shortly after Roller’s arrival. He has played all 3 outfield positions. His numbers aren’t flashy with a triple slash of .278/.377/.461 with 5 home runs, 22 RBI and 36 runs scored. When things get interesting he seems to be part of it. He currently has a 24 game on-base streak.
Ogden Raptors (Rookie League)
Catcher Tre Todd (22) – 21st round 2018 – has caught my attention. He had 32 at-bats between Rancho Cucamonga and Great Lakes to start the season waiting for the short season rookie league to start and did not have a lot of success. He has been splitting time with fellow catcher Marco Hernandez so could use some more playing time. In 13 games he has posted a slash line of .391/.440/.761 with 4 home runs and 20 RBI.
Melvin Jimenez (19) was rushed in his progression in my opinion so I would include him as one who is treading water ready to make a bigger splash. He actually pitched quite well with the Quakes earlier in the season waiting for the Pioneer League to start up. With the Raptors in 7 appearances over 16 innings, he has posted an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 0.81 along with 36 strikeouts and 6 walks. He is due for another trip to Great Lakes.
AZL and DSL – the DSL is especially difficult to assign a status to players. With so little information, unless a player is a high profile signing, one has to rely on stats. Age level and speed of progression can be used and with pitchers I always like K/BB ratio. For most right now the sample size is very small.
Four young pitchers that are putting up good numbers in the DSL are:
Heisell Baro (17) – First Year 10 G,22.2 IP,0.79 ERA, o.84 WHIP 24 K 9 BB
Axel Acevedo (18) – Second Year 10 G, 23.1 ERA, 1.16 ERA,0.69 WHIP, 17 K, 6 BB
Hendrick Briones (17) – First Year 11G, 16 IP, 0.56 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9 K, 7 BB
Christian Suarez (18) – First Year 7G, 24.1 IP, 1.85 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 22 K, 3 BB (DSL All-Star)
Among others two players of interest for me in the AZL are:
Ryan Pepiot (21) – 3rd round 2019 – 4 G,5 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB
Aldrich De Jongh (20) – 17th round 2018 – .17 G, 301/.342/.438, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 5 SB
Note: Statistics as of Saturday, July 13
DC’s Minor League Lowdown
DSL Dodgers Bautista 6 – DSL Athletics 7
Andrew Budier started and pitched 4 solid innings giving up one run and striking out 5. Abel Maya did not fare so well, giving up 4 runs in 1.2 innings while Jesus Turizo surrendered 2 more. Carlos De Avila (2.1 IP) and Hendrick Briones (0.2 IP) had a clean slate.
The Bautista Dodgers scored six runs without any coming home on a hit – bases-loaded walk, error, ground out, throwing error, ground out, steal and error.
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 6 – DSL Rays (2) 9
Pitching did not highlight the day. Starter Yamil Castillo gave up 7 runs in 4 innings and was followed by Luisenyer Perez who gave up 2 more in 2 innings. Samuel Reuben finished up with 2 scoreless innings.
At the plate, the Shoemaker Dodgers scored 2 in the 3rd and the 5th on singles by Nelson Quiroz and Juan Diaz. Frank Rodriguez brought one home in the 6th with a single and another scored in the 7th on a ground out.
AZL Dodgers Mota 1 – AZL Dodgers Lasorda 3
The Dodgers won and lost a close one. Lasorda’s Dodgers got excellent pitching: Israiky Berroa with 4 scoreless innings, Adolfo Ramirez one run in 3.2 innings and Reinaldo De Paula a scoreless 9th.
The 3 runs came in the 8th on a WP, a SF and an Aldrich De Jongh single.
The Mota Dodgers also got good pitching with a slip in the 8th. Jeisson Cabrera pitched 4.2 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts while Huei-Sheng Lin pitched 1.2 with no runs. Daniel Cruz ran into trouble and left with the bases loaded in the 8th. Jacob Cantleberry couldn’t close the gate and all 3 inherited runners scored.
Their lone run scored on a steal and an error.
Ogden Raptors 3 – Missoula Osprey (Arizona) 9
Alfredo Tavarez had another good outing giving up 2 runs, none earned, in 5 innings. Jeff Belge surrendered another in his 2 innings while Melvin Jimenez pitched 2 perfect innings with 5 strikeouts.
The Raptor bats continued to rake. Jimmy Titus had 4 hits and 4 RBI with a 3-run home run in the 2nd and an RBI double in the 5th. Andy Pages (9) and Sam McWilliams (8) had solo home runs. Three additional runs scored in the 3rd on a Justin Yurchak SF, an Andy Pages single and a Ryan Ward single.
Great Lakes Loons 3 – Peoria Chiefs (St. Louis) 1
Pitching was the highlight of the day in Peoria. Twenty-year-old Jose Martinez went 7 innings, pitching 7 innings for his second consecutive start. He gave up 6 hits, one run walked one and struck out 7. Justin Bruihl and Guillermo Zuniga each tossed a scoreless inning with the trio recording 11 strikeouts.
The Loons first run came on a home run by recently promoted catcher Tre Todd. In the 7th inning. Todd got credit for another RBI in the 8th on a fielders choice and a 3rd run scored on a ground out.
Ranch Cucamonga Quakes 4 – Stockton Ports (Oakland) 6
Three Quakes pitchers gave up 6 earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched: Michael Grove (2.2 IP) – 3, Max Gamboa (2 IP) – 1, Wes Helsabeck (1.2 IP) – 2. Austin Drury and Brett de Gues both had 1.1 scoreless innings.
Donovan Casey hit his 17th home run in the 2nd inning while Starling Heredia and Marcus Chiu plated 2 in the 5th with a double and single respectively. An additional run scored in the 8th on a wild pitch.
Tulsa Drillers – the Drillers were not scheduled.
OKC Dodgers 5 – Iowa Cubs 2
Tony Gonsolin (1.2 IP) and Mitchell White (4 IP) both struggled a bit. Gonsolin gave up 2 runs while White gave up the other 3. Justin Grimm and Chris Nunn each had a scoreless inning.
The offense was simple. Zack Reks hit a home run in the 2nd and Gavin Lux homered in the 8th.
What a great article. First AC, then 2Demeter2, now DC.
This blog just runs itself!
Outstanding piece, DC!
Conventional wisdom is
oftenusually wrong:CT3 is a bum – get rid pf him – Wrong!
Clayton is no longer an Ace – Wrong!
Trade Joc – Wrong!
Muncy can’t play 2B – Wrong!
Austin Barnes is a blackhole – Wrong!
Ryu is not worth the QO – Wrong!
Cody is slumping – Wrong!
Alex Verdugo doesn’t have enough power – Wrong! (He’s going to get 20 THIS year… 25 or 30 in another year or two)
All players are different and progress/learn differently. Labels are dangerous and conventional wisdom is often wrong. If the Dodgers keep rolling out a player you deem bad, they may have vision while you have sight. They might see something you don’t… or know something you don’t.
The Dodgers are #2 in Team ERA at 3.38 (TB is 3.31). The Dodgers were #1 until the Colorado trip. But, here’s the change that is happening: The Dodgers are #10 in Reliever ERA, 0.08 behind Houston for the 7th spot. Earlier in the season, the Dodgers were 1.10 Runs a Game behind the #1 team (Cleveland). They have cut that in half and are 0.62 Runs a game behind the leader. Yes, I would like to see them get another reliever, but they are trending the right direction. Right now, for any good reliever they seek, the other GM is asking for Kaybear. AF is not trading him. The price will drop at the deadline… hopefully. I do not see AF trading any of the Top 10 Prospects.
I believe that even if the team does not acquire a reliever, they will be Top 5 or 6 in Bullpen ERA come the end of the season. Don’t lose your minds folks.
Kike can’t hit – Maybe Wrong!
I’m not aiming this at Mark, but only replying because he mentions the topic of Verdugo and his lack of power, which I’ve seen raised a lot throughout the season. Personally, I don’t care. We’ve got run drivers and plenty of guys who can go deep. We need guys who can get on base and turn the solo shots into 2-3 run homers. I’m more concerned Verdugo continues to hit above .300 and works on increasing his walks. I do wonder if he’s getting internal pressure to keep up in the power department, because he’s been swinging out of the strike zone lately and the amount of homers he already has is probably higher than projected. Perhaps, the power emphasis is simply his approach due to further down in the batting order. I’m already a happy Dodger fan, but I’ll be that much happier once Verdugo and Seager are fixed at the 1 and 2 spots in the batting order. I’m envisioning carnage and Bellinger running away with the RBI title, and perhaps, the Triple Crown if he gets on a torrid hot streak.
Donovan Casey now has 17 home runs and 57 RBI.
Mark is stirring the pot…
CT3 is not a bum – he’s probably a full time player on a lot of teams.
Clayton is no longer an ace – If DeGrom and Verlander are sill aces, then so is Kershaw. Kershaw has spoiled us, he’s no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still right on the edge of top 10.
Trade Joc – Debatable as his OPS is dropping like a rock and his first base glove needs a lot more work. Jose Abreu’s OPS is climbing, has more homers and way more doubles and is a natural first baseman.
Muncy can’t play 2B – He’s getting the job done no doubt. He doesn’t look like a second baseman, but don’t let that fool you. He might be better defensively than everyone’s fave trade target – Whit Merrifield.
Austin Barnes is a blackhole – Not a black hole, more like a solid backup. Will Smith is the best catcher on the team, you better go with your best players in the post season, and you better start getting him experience soon.
Ryu is not worth the QO – Not only is he worth it, it’s starting to look like he’s under payed. I was elated when he accepted it.
Cody is slumping – He was slumping, he was banged up, and his slumps look like 278/350/500. What a monster. And now he’s hitting everything so hard again!
Alex Verdugo doesn’t have enough power – I’ll still take the under on 20 this year and that’s with Coors field (30% of his homers) and the juiced ball helping him out. Hell, Jason Heyward has 15 bombs this year!
Kike can’t hit – He will eventually, and will do it for a while. He will never be anything close to consistent, but he will go on a tear, just wait for it!
I’m really bummed for CT3, I really don’t know what else to say. Thankfully we have Kike to step in. This is why it’s okay that they’re a bit redundant. Hopefully it’s a hairline fracture and will heal quickly. But, it’s probably around 6 weeks until we see him again.
As far as the bullpen goes, it’s probably more likely that it regresses a bit instead of continuing it’s current trend. Urias will most likely be the main driver for regression when he’s moved into the rotation.
Who are you comfortable with going into the post-season?
Jansen – Starting to look better, but is he as good as he was?
Baez – Is he gonna tip pitches in the post-season?
Kelly – On a roll now, but still has a lot of traffic on the bases when he pitches.
Yimi, Floro, Chargois, Alexander? How about Ferguson, who’s in AAA even when we have no left handers in the pen right now!
This is not going to be a top 5 pen as it is currently constructed and when you don’t have to improve anything else, you better pay the going rate to fix this!
Mark, if conventional wisdom is wrong, so is hoping for Barnes massive improvement offensively. I doubt you think Barnes’ upside is greater than Smith’s, correct? For me, Smith is the better catcher, offensively and defensively. Barnes has a poor arm for throwing out base stealers, currently 25%. He is not a GG catcher. He could get hot for a spell, but like some others on this team, he will cool to a very tepid temp. Smith is a huge upgrade.
I am not hoping for a massive improvement from Barnes and I am not against Will Smith. Decisions like this are not made in vacuum. In order to justify starting Smith:
1. We must assume that Barnes will continue to struggle;
2. We must assume that Smith continues to rake; and
3. We must assume that the pitching staff are all in.
I do not think we can assume any one of those… let alone all three!
1 – Safe to assume, his stats look a lot like every other year except for his outlier.
2 – It’s not like he’s gonna hit worse than Barnes. The worst case scenario is probably a wash. There’s really no downside here.
3 – Were they “All in” when they traded AJ Ellis? Barnes has been the backup catcher for several years, do you really think they’re nearly as attached to him as there were to AJ Ellis? Barnes is ranked 28th in OPS among catchers with at least 150 ABs.
Thank you for the interesting write-up DC especially about those players who seem to be either blocked or on a plateau right now. Looking forward to seeing some of them progress in their minor league teams to work their way upwards. DJ Peters is also one of my favorites and hope to see him soon on the big club’s roster.
1. The evidence is clear and convincing that Barnes will continue to struggle. .203 BA and of all NL catchers with at least 180 AB’s he’s just ahead of Austin Hedges ( second to last in offensive production).
2. Fairly certain Smith will exceed the offensive production of Barnes. He is an ascending player and while it might be a SSS at the big league level our eyes don’t lie and Smith passes the eye test (offensively).
3. With all do respect, and I’m not trying to be flippant, does it really matter if the pitching staff are all in? The decision to play one player over another is management’s call and if Doc and the FO think Smith puts the team in a better position to win a WS you do it. You can “sell it” and get the player’s “buy in” but ultimately it’s AF and Doc’s call. I’m fairly certain the pitching staff was comfortable throwing to AJ Ellis but he was traded for Carlos Ruiz because the team needed more offense. The staff was probably comfortable throwing to Grandal but he lost his starting position the last two post seasons.
Being sentimental takes a backseat to winning….and it’s all about winning. Do I like and appreciate Barnes’ game?….sure, but would I like more offense and more competitive AB’s from that position?……absolutely!
1. & 2. are assumptions… not facts. You may think otherwise, but the truth is “We don’t really know.” Barnes may break out… or not. Smith may hit 15 HR and bat .300… or not. We do not know.
What we do know is that many pitchers do not like to change their catchers, especially during the season… and especially to a rookie. You may see a spike in ERA, so YES it does matter if the pitchers are all in. They did like throwing to Grandal AND Barnes. Now they like throwing to Barnes and Martin.
I’m not saying it can’t work, but you can’t cram it down their throats. Now, if there is an injury, it’s a little easier to accept.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but do any of the smart folks (AC/DC) know what the staff’s ERA was when Will Smith caught those 8-9 games? I do recall several pitchers saying many positive things about his framing, his game calling, and his leadership.
I also know from the eye test that he looked good behind the plate, looked great throwing to 2b, and looked very comfortable at the plate. Even if he hit .225 from today thru October, that’d still be an improvement over Barnes.
And as far as Kershaw, I don’t really care if he’s still the Ace or not during the regular season, because I already know he’s NOT the ace come October. That fact is indisputable. Of course I’m hoping like hell that something changes this October, but I won’t bet on it.
Bobby – this isn’t smart since I had to look at the box score of those 9 games and calculate. The team gave up 38 runs, 35 earned. My Math would say the ERA for those 9 games was 3.89. 35×9/81= 3.89 if the calculation is correct.
Spell check: “Brett de Geus” and not “Brett de Gues”
Must be related. 😉
I get it!
My typo. Sorry. I always remember the “e” comes before the “u” alphabetically in his surname except when I don’t.
Wonder what Harper was thinking as the HRs kept sailing over his head?
I would love to know what the actual contract was that we offered Harper. 5/180? 4/170?
Either way, I sure was wrong for wanting that one to happen! Thank you Bryce for saying no.
“I wish I could do that!”
Agree Smith should be getting playing time here. Meanwhile, the Dodgers traded Travis d’Arnaud who’s now hitting .252 with 9 homeruns and a.785 ops.
Harper was thinking, ” those guys don’t make half of what I make, and their all going to the WS “.
Barnes is a black hole unless he’s bunting against a team that can’t play defense! Enough already. Bring up Smith. I don’t understand why clearly the best player isn’t playing!
I don’t think Black Holes exist on a team with a .656 winning %.
I am not against Smith, but the team is winning and I just think the process needs to play out…
Sorry Mark but good hasn’t been good enough the last 2 years. Why not improve your club at the weakest links? Give Smith his shot and trade for an eighth inning reliever! This is the year we should go all in!
I am sorry, but I defer to the guy who built the best team in baseball. Armchair QB’s are a dime a dozen.
He has did it by doing stuff that was unpopular at the time but worked.
Good write up DC! In our star driven culture we often lose sight of the undervalued and under appreciated hard working grinders. Every team (organization) needs them. Chris Roller is definitely one of those players. He just keeps “rolling” along. I do like Dillon Paulson also, mostly I suspect , because he is a USC Trojan and I have a an admitted bias towards them. I also attended a USC vs Arizona baseball game a couple of years back and Paulson hit one of the longest home-runs I have ever seen with a silky smooth swing. I think (hope) he’s just a click away from becoming a legit prospect.
Will smith has a MILB career stat line of .244/.349/.454/.803
He has played only 80 games in AAA and I watched him have one of the worst slumps I’ve ever seen a player have last year when he was promoted. Everyone needs to temper their expectations, especially in 29 ABs. He is a streaky hitter but he also doesnt have the longest record of being the “elite” catcher every seems to think he is. 29 MLB at bats is nothing, the ball is juiced in the PCL and everyone’s number is are great and the pitching is shit down there. I think Smith should spend the rest of the season in AAA unless an injury occurs and he can come up in September and play for a play off spot, but to be obsessed over a player who was an average minor leaguer and think he is going to be the answer to all of the Dodgers problems is naive and foolish. Sure he could come up and perform, but he can also come up, league makes the adjustments and then he just spirals downhill ruining every sense of confidence he currently has. Sometimes it’s actually a good idea to let the FO make the decisions, look at Verdugo- He was ready to start last year but unfortunately wasn’t able to break thru but look at him now, 9th in all of baseball in BA, 2nd in all of baseball in DRS behind Belly, in the top 15 in bWAR and top 10 in dWAR, there is a method to the FO madness and I think everyone need to take a step back and just appreciate what this team is doing this year.
Totally agree!!!
True. We do have the best record in baseball so therefore we have zero room for improvement.
Keep Barnes and don’t add a reliever!
I didn’t say anything about not not needing a reliever, dont try to strawman what I just posted because you dont agree with it.
Not directed at you directly.
I also don’t know what strawman your post means so I can’t comment on that haha
Bobby, a stawman is refuting someone’s argument by attacking something that was never argued in the first place. What’s funny is that Bruce is actually using the stawman to make his argument. Here’s where he did it…
I think Smith should spend the rest of the season in AAA unless an injury occurs and he can come up in September and play for a play off spot, but to be obsessed over a player who was an average minor leaguer and think he is going to be the answer to all of the Dodgers problems is naive and foolish.
No one is obsessing over Will Smith. (Al least not in comparison with Carlos and his love for Matt Kemp.) No one claimed he was the answer to all of the Dodgers problems and Will Smith was never an average minor leaguer.
I’ll elaborate. Will Smith was a first round pick in 2016 and appeared as high as number 10 in the organizational prospect rankings that very same year. He proceeded to play in three minor league levels in 2016, the same year he was drafted. Then he played in two different levels each year thereafter including this year at AAA and MLB. Average minor leaguers do not rise through levels as Will Smith did.
By reading this blog and the comments religiously each day, I think that most people agree that the bullpen is the number one problem, number 2 for most of the year is right handed power and number 3 is the lack of production from catcher. Will Smith potentially solves two of those problems, but unless he can pitch out of the pen with his left hand, no one thinks he’s gonna solve all of their problems.
Bruce, I totally agree with what you are saying. I am not down on Smith. Quite the contrary, I like him a lot. I was going to write something about this in one of my posts this weekend, and I probably still will. People seem to forget that Barnes was a better MiLB hitter than is Smith. What one does in MiLB does not always translate at the ML level.
Barnes MiLB – .300/.389/.439/.828
Smith MiLB – .244/.349/.454/.803
Barnes worst year was in the Florida State League and his numbers in that season were .260/.367/.343/.710. Make no mistake the Florida State League is a far far far less hitter friendly than the California League where Smith slashed .232/.355/.448/.803. There is no denying that Smith has more power than Barnes, but Smith has never been as prolific as Barnes with BA and OBP. This year at AAA Smith is .269/.345/.654/.999. The Dodgers had a power hitting catcher with great framing skills that the fans wanted out of town, and got their wish.
Last year, the same player who is now being heralded as the next Yadi Molina…was being labeled as nothing more than a defensive backup catcher at the ML level last year as he hit .138/.206/.218/.425 at OKC. Nobody could understand at the time why it wasn’t Keibert Ruiz who was promoted and not Will Smith.
I keep reading that Smith has such a great arm. At OKC, Smith has thrown out 13 of 61 potential base stealers or 21%. That number would have me a little concerned if I thought that base stealing was all that important at the ML level. After 96 games. there have been only 20 SB attempts on Barnes, and he has thrown out 5 or 25%. ML Average is 27%. The much maligned Grandal is at 31%.
Even the talent evaluators are not as high on Smith as they are on Ruiz.
Baseball America – Ruiz #29, Smith #50
MLB Pipeline – Ruiz #28, #1 LAD, #2 MiLB Catcher – Smith #100, #4 LAD, #9 MiLB catcher
FanGraphs – Ruiz #13, Smith #67
I am never going to convince anyone who does not like Austin Barnes (the player) to come around. But my guess is that when Smith comes down off his high, as did Barnes after 2017, the same fans that are heralding him today will be looking for his head as they are with Barnes. I look to see what impact that player has on the team as a whole. It takes 25 players to win a WS. For all those down on Barnes, Smith may be a better fit for LAD in 2019, as was Barnes over Grandal in 2017, but then again, what if he isn’t? You have all the information to make the decision? You know all the factors? Have you personally spoken to the pitchers about who they like throwing to? Just a wild guess, but if every pitcher said they preferred to pitch to Smith over Barnes, Smith would be on the 25 man.
You mean I might wind up again being the lone fan of Smith should he not be an offensive star?
i got your back.
Granted I’ll mock you in public, but privately I’ll have your back.
Couldn’t disagree more! First of all, Will Smith was NEVER an average minor leaguer. In his first year in the minors he played at 3 levels and made it all the way to high A. Second year, two levels, Third Year, two levels, this year, his fourth, 2 levels including MLB. On top of that, he’s been on the organizational top prospect lists for at least 3 years and he was a 1st round draft pick.
How the heck is anyone suggesting that he’s the answer to all the Dodgers problems? Is he gonna pitch out of the pen, left handed at that? That’s the biggest problem. But, the second biggest problem is the lack of offense at catcher. You have a guy that’s killing it in the minors, killed it in limited action in the majors and plays Gold Glove defense. How is he not a valid solution to this problem?
Then you compare him to Verdugo. Verdugo was blocked with a glut of productive outfielders last year and he NEVER answered the call. Now, contrast that to Smith who absolutely raked in his callup and who is blocked by a catcher that is mostly unproductive throughout his career and also has an option remaining!
Now, if we’re all supposed to sit here and say nothing and “let the FO make the decisions” (they obviously aren’t going to let use make any decisions), what’s the freaking point of having a blog with a comments section? On top of that, not EVERY move they’ve made has worked out, so they aren’t infallible. And they haven’t won ANY championships so there IS room for improvement.
Mark just hates Smith because he’s been writing about him being trade bait or K-Bear’s backup for years now. Don’t pay attention to his obvious bias. Believe your own eyes when he hits walk offs and puts up numbers.
If you think I hate Smith, you have a real issue with the basic comprehension of plain English!
Corey Seager hit .307 in the minors.
Alex Verdugo hit .309 in the minors.
Cody Bellinger hit .271 in the minors.
Keibert Ruiz has hit .298 in the minors.
Will Smith has hit .244 in the minors.
Austin Barnes hit .300 in the minors.
I would say, that based upon that Will Smith has indeed been average. Now, he improved last year, but no one is good enough (after 29 AB’s) to know what he will be.
All and I repeat ALL scouting reports on Smith question his hit tool. I think he could eclipse that, but after 29 AB’s you can’t tell.
Cherry picking stats again. Then put him on a list with 4 former no 1 organizational prospects, two all stars and say he’s average by comparison!!! Even though he plays a position that doesn’t yield as much offense.
Fine Mark, you win! Smith is average and won’t hit as good as Barnes. Trade him for a reliever before anyone else notices and hope that Keibert can OPS over 700 in AA. In his second year for that matter. Maybe 3’s a charm for him.
BTW – It’s oddly funny that you’re arguing so hard against bringing him up, when he’s already been brought up.
Maybe you are a “first time reader.” I am not arguing against Will Smith – I just think it needs to play out. In case you didn’t know, I wrote this:
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/07/13/the-will-smith-era-is-upon-us/
I don’t know why you think I am against Smith. I’m not. It’s just that 29 AB’s is not a harbinger of what he may be. He will get his chance…
I knew Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo, Urias and Ruiz would be stars. I don’t feel the same way about Smith, but over the last year, he has made a lot of progress. I hope you are right.
All these kids. Most will not ever play MLB. Fun guessing which will play, and mostly that, guesses. For instance Chris Anderson. Watched him pitch at Rancho and thought can’t miss. Well he missed by a mile. Watched Grant Holmes at Rancho and thought wow great heavy fastball and great stuff all around. Oops. As for hitters saw Yusniel Diaz and thought great gap to gap line drive power and good bat to ball skill. Oh well. Watched the mental illness guy and I was right about his speed and hitting but didn’t ever know till later his other issues. Of course I watched Seager and knew he was gonna be a star. And never thought Belli would be the power guy he is now, figured a good for average hitter though. And a lot of theses guys like Garlick I watched and kinda thought, nothing special. So there you go. Might as well go to a psychic . Course it probably says more about my poor scouting skills than anything else.
The Dodgers were never going to sign Harper. He had said repeatedly he would not accept a short term deal. The Dodgers knew he would not accept whatever short term offer they made. Barnes fooled me. I thought he was going to hit as he always had in his milb career. He had a good one year but he has shown the past 2 years that he is not a threat at the plate. He is athletic and a team player but seems to freeze at the plate over and over. I believe it is a salary and roster crunch. They don’t want to cut what they have currently with a big lead. They can let Smith work on his game in Oklahoma City and in September he will be called up to battle for the job. AF has said he can be a hall of fame catcher or something to that effect so he is high on him.
With all this discussion about Barnes. This is why you do not trade your top 2 catching prospects (Ruiz and Smith). With all this discussion about needing to trade for pitching, this is why you do not trade your top 2 pitching prospects (May and Gonsolin).
With Turner getting up there in age, this is why you do not trade your best infield prospect (Lux). Speaking of Lux, the Dodgers might want to figure out where he will fit in the infield and start grooming him for that position or put him at SS if he is not there already and let him learn there because I’ve heard if you can handle SS then you can handle 3B and 2B also.
Ugh, I hate saying this because I’m a fan of Joc Peterson, but with Peterson under control for only one more year, we might not be able to keep him around after 2020 (I hope we can). But this is why you do not trade your top outfield prospect (DJ Peters).
Can you tell which 6 prospects are on my untouchable list?
Did any of you know that yesterday, 2 years ago, Bellinger became the first rookie to hit for the cycle?
Today’s lineup:
Joc (1b)
Verdugo
JT
Belly
Muncy
Pollock
Seager
Barnes
Buehler
Can somebody smarter than me explain #3 in this article to me.
https://www.mlb.com/news/5-effects-of-new-mlb-trade-deadline
Does this mean that a team like the Mets or D-Backs who may want to dump payroll might consider trading deGrom or Greinke for lower rated prospects to a team that would take on that payroll?
If so, should the Dodgers consider one of them, considering we don’t know if Rich Hill will be available come playoff time and leave Urias in the bullpen this year?
A starting rotation in the playoffs of Ryu, Beuhler, Kershaw, deGrom/Greinke would be pretty dominate in the playoffs and may shorten the games for our bullpen.
When I say lower rated prospects, I mean none of our top 5 prospects and maybe not DJ Peters either.
If you go over the Luxury Tax Threshold, which is now about $206 Million, the first year you go over it, you have to pay 22.5% of the excess overage. The second-year it is 30%. The third-year it goes up to 40% and then the next time or times is 50%. If you go a year without going over, it resets it. The Dodgers were under last year, so it was re-set. If they go over this year, they would have to pay 22.5%, not 50%.
So, teams like the D-Bags could trade a good prospect to say, the Dodgers along with Greinke, IF the Dodgers took Greinke’s contract. I doubt that would happen with the Dodgers and the Yankees don’t think Greinke can pitch in NY, but that’s the gist of it.
Thank you Mark for explaining.
But you said “So, teams like the D-Bags could trade a good prospect to say, the Dodgers along with Greinke, IF the Dodgers took Greinke’s contract. ”
I’m just asking about Greinke not a prospect along with him. So are you saying the Dodgers would not need to trade anything to the D-Backs because the D-Backs might want to dump payroll? I find that hard to believe.
If the Dodgers wanted Greinke or deGrom the Dodgers would take that pricy contract. So what would the D-Backs or Mets want in return? Do you have any idea?
Just Greinke or deGrom to the Dodgers for what?
Basically this is what I am saying. Friedman says to the D-Backs or Mets we want Greinke or deGrom and are willing to take on the big contract, so what do you want in return.
Mark, Im a fan of AF but there has been plenty of swing and misses for him. My point is this is the year barring injuries we would be a big favorite to win it all with a big bullpen addition. Don’t settle for being good when we have a chance to be great. Trading for Smith is a must or someone at that level. Let’s not settle for just getting to the WS but winning it! For me it’s worth a top prospect! Like the Cubs and Chapman for Torres
Everyone swings and misses. If he gets the Dodgers to a Third Consecutive World Series, I don’t think you can even consider the misses.
Not necessarily pointed to you, because countless others have made the same claim about Aroldis Chapman and 2016. However, sometimes I am amazed at the short term memories of some. Aroldis Chapman was not the reason the Cubs won the 2016 WS, in fact he blew Game 7 (and two other post season games). He pulled a worse Kenley Jansen than Kenley. Ahead 6-3 in Game 7, coming in the 8th inning for Jon Lester with 2 outs with one runner on and Brandon Guyer coming up, Chapman gave up the one inherited run and 2 others after Guyer doubled and Rajai Davis homered. Overall he pitched in 13 games in the 2016 post season. He did have 4 saves and 3 blown saves. He inherited 11 runners and 5 of them scored. The Cubs did not need Chapman to get to the playoffs. They wanted him for the playoffs and won in spite of the non-lockdown performance by Chapman. I think they win the WS without Chapman, but that is just my opinion and can never be proven. I will grant you that I doubt any Cubs fan is distraught about the loss of Gleybar Torres, after winning the WS. Although I am also just as sure that they would like to have Torres and his .292/.361/.524/.884 and 19 HRs to play alongside Javy Baez. Rizzo, Torres, Baez, Bryant (when he is not playing OF) would be a nice infield.
That being said, I have been at the forefront that the Dodgers need additional lockdown relievers. But there is not one relief pitcher out there who is not susceptible to a bad game at the wrong time. Just ask Mariano Rivera after Game 7 in 2001.
So, the reality is that the Cubs probably would have won without Chapman and how would they be now with Torres in the lineup? Maybe they would be in the Drivers Seat now!
AC, 100% agree with that. The easy liner was, “Cubs got Chapman and won the World Series.” In reality, they almost lost the World Series because of Chapman.
He was absolutely dominant once the Cubs got him. He was really good in their NLDS vs. SF. He was just OK vs. us ( I don’t recall him blowing any save, but he wasn’t as filthy). And he nearly cost the Cubs the World Series.
Of course, I say that when on the other hand I’m also proposing we spend the prospect capital to go get an impact reliever. My belief is that if Andrew Friedman gets us to October with Yimi, Alexander, and God forbid Roscup or Sadler, and those guys cost us a series, AF will never live it down. However, if he somehow gets us a Vazquez or Hand type, and those guys blow a game to cost us a chance at a title, I will never blame Andrew Friedman for putting the best chance out there. I’ll blame the player. The same way I blame Kershaw for so many of his October failures.
You need to put the best out there in October, and then let’s see what happens. At that point, it’s out of the front office (and even manager’s hands), and it’s on the impact players to get it done. Bumgarner got it done. Kershaw has not. Chapman really didn’t, but it didn’t cost the Cubs. Jansen didn’t, and it cost the Dodgers.
Bobby, I am with you on paying the player capital to get that late inning closer or closer type for this year. As you for say, if they get a Vazquez, then good for AF. If he blows Game 7, bad on Vazquez not on AF. It would make me feel a lot more comfortable with a better bullpen. But please no Jake Diekman.
I would not mess with the catching position now. Bring Smith up in September and let him play a little. Next spring is the time to make a switch. The experts have Ruiz as the best prospect. Maybe they both make it with Smith or Ruiz playing a different position. This whole thing is a process. Look at Bellinger. 2017 he was great. In 2018 the pitchers had him figured out. In 2019 Bellinger has adjusted. Some player adjust and some do not. Bellinger was not going to be a platoon player again. I just wish Joc would of had the same attitude.
Al, it is not Joc’s attitude. Joc is simply not the player Cody Bellinger is. Never was, never will be. Joc has had his opportunities to hit LHP and he has never taken advantage as Cody has. He just cannot seem to hit good LHP (or mediocre). So he is a platoon player. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. Every team needs that role player. He does have a 1.6 WAR and a $5MM payroll, so he has more than earned his salary. Joc is a hot and cold hitter, but as we saw in the 2017 WS, when he gets on a roll, he can be very good. We just need to hope he will get hot at the right time. Who’s to say he will not be this year’s Steve Pearce. BTW, last year’s WS MVP is batting a crisp .180/.245/.258/.503 thus far in 2019. It is timing, and if Joc gets hot, he will go off.
Maybe Ruiz should be traded for a reliever before he becomes a “Lee” although somehow we did wind up with CT3 via Lee.
On one hand, you want to trade him for Vasquez, but on the other, you think he might be Zach Lee? How does that even compute?
Let’s not forget, that you have to match up with whoever you are trying to do a trade. We may say “Trade Ruiz and Gonsolin for Vasquez!” However, we have no clue if the Pirates even like either player.
The Yankees traded Chapman for Torres who was one of the Top 10 Prospects in baseball at the time. The Cubs got two months of Chapman.
Vasquez is signed for three more years after this. On MLB.Radio today, they said that Vasquez was the best Closer in the NL… maybe all of baseball. Signed for 3 more years.
Maybe the Pirates want Ruiz, but I think they probably would ask for Smith (since Cevelli has the concussions) and would also demand Lux and May. If anyone thinks they are getting the best reliever in baseball for 2 months and 3 yers for Ruiz, they are outta’ their rabbit ass minds!
I really enjoyed the ESPN coverage of the game last night. I hung in there the whole game and Fleming, Kurkjian and Ross were very complimentary of the Dodgers, insightful and funny. Kurkjian’s all time initials team was great and David Ross talks a lot but I like him. He is the anti A-Rod for me. The reinvented, repackaged, new and improved A-Rod still doesn’t cut it. Big phony who doesn’t talk; he preaches and gives essays complete with outlines and bullet points. “3 things the Dodgers need to do”……”5 things Rui must do……..”. His new tactic to be more genuine with his self deprecation doesn’t cut it (is it deprecation or def………….nevermind) The SI article on him made we want to put my finger down my throat. Davis Ross is the refreshing, good knowledge and funny. I like Jessica Mendoza on the Sunday night group but that can’t salvage it.
Kurkjian made a great comment about Doc. I love to question and second guess Doc sometimes but is is a baseball guy. Tim pointed out how he sometimes will ban players from the cage and too much hitting. He understands that less is more as a long season wears on. It’s like a pro golfer on the range. When they are in a groove, they use the practice tee to warm up, go through their routines, see what’s working and hits shots for the day. They are not working on their golf swings. When they lack their A game, that changes. Same with BP.
Now back to Joe and Orel today?
umm, I don’t think Buehler has it today
It’s tough pitching in Phily and Buehler is overconfident. He needs this beat-down for his psyche. It makes you appreciate how good Clayton still is.
I don’t think he’s overconfident. He’s had a number of melt downs like this. I don’t think he’s quite as tough as he likes to pretend he is. We’ve seen him go sailing along in a start for 4 innings and then completely implode. Tonight it didn’t even take that long. I think most of this is just due to his age. When things start going badly he sometimes overcompensates and tries too hard, and that makes the problem even worse.
Walker Buehler’s Day Off, or is that Walker Buehler’s Off Day?
Where is all the talk about WB being our ace?
campy
What are you talking about? it’s one game. God I don’t know what the hell is the problem with some people here.
Oh my God input a name here, he’s pitching or hitting like crap today. lets hang him. WTF?
What are you smoking?
He’s better than fine. 6IP, 2ER?
In this day and age?
Who said Joc can’t play 1B?
Walker is overconfident. “He thinks he can throw any pitch in the zone at any time and win.”
That’s not a quote from me. It’s from someone who knows Walker well. He also said “He’ll learn.”
Apparently through a weird weather pattern, Colorado air has moved east and is hovering over Philadelphia. Or it could be that the balls are juiced. Perhaps, and not as frequently considered, these players are just really good. Win or lose, this is a fun team!!!
You got that right, 2d2. It’s the Coors Effect.
As I mentioned above, WB has had melt downs before and will again, but he usually manages to get back on track so if the team can survive the bad inning or two they still have a good chance to win. That seems to be playing out tonight, at least through 4 innings.
Kinda funny, as I watched Harper light up Striker for a 3 run dong, I was thinking to myself, you know what, 6-1 is probably not going to be enough to beat us with the way we’ve been hitting. Son of a gun, I come back in a half and hour and it’s already 6-4. How would you like to be a pitcher facing this lineup for 2 or 3 times through? Good luck man!
I still remember when many of here wanted to take Taylor, Kelly, Pollock and Joc out of the team (Those 3 have been great lately) And some of us think that the season is long and things can and will change, I understand that we all want to win the 162 games, but we have to be smart and have patience, I’m sure there is a plan, which is being carried out, do not worry about Barnes, he will know how to solve things, I personally prefer to have Barnes instead of Smith in the playoffs, at least this year.
Joc is looking solid at 1B.
He has learned to come off the bag to catch the ball. That’s a hard one…
Exactly, that’s what I’m talking about: there’s a plan, a process, you only need to have patience.
Joe Davis: “Bludgening their way back into this thing!”
CLASSIC!
Applause to the field crew! Did you see how fast they go that tarp onto the field?
yes. very quick
Joe Davis: “Rain clears. Lightening strikes!”
CLASSIC Part 2!
It’s a good thing I am not the manager of the Dodgers. I would drill the first batter. That’s BS!
I would as well, if the lead were bigger. Don’t wana bring the tying run to the plate that fast.
Dodgers is a classy team, they will not fall to that level, so they are not going to hit anyone…. At least I hope so!
Nice little Beaty Bop to set the world aright!
Too many Dodger players being hit.
You have to drill someone back!
That answers the question about whether or not the Dodgers need a high quality arm in the pen.
Having Vasquez or his like in the pen could have made a difference tonight. Jansen gets it done most of the time, but he is no longer lights out.
Ok, I am big time on board with Mark, and this has been on my mind all season, watching Turner(who we all know crowds the plate), Muncy and other guys get drilled. I totally love Roberts, but my big thing, and I know he is old school, and Nomah and Orel has said this numerous times, you have to PROTECT your hitters when you are on the mound. Nomah said it perfectly, when they pitch inside and hit your guy, next inning, your pitcher throws high and inside cheese just to let the other team know that you know. For some reason, Doc does not retaliate. Lasorda would have benched his pitcher if he didnt throw at him. Just sayin.
So you would have preferred hitting the first batter and bringing the tying run to the plate?
Horrendous loss. Granted there was a bs chopper and a bloop that fell in, but horrendous loss
Time for a new closer.
Watching Bryce Harper celebrate makes me want to puke!!
Think it was a little over the top? Yes!
Not really over the top. Phillies have been struggling. This was a good jolt for their team. No reason to avoid emotion with this win. The got it fair and square. Give thanks to Jansen.
KJ looks very mortal. Where’s the strikeout pitch?
Earlier in the year, we were winning close games with good defense — preventing lots of runs. In the last month, we have really regressed. I would dare to say we are in a bit of fielding slump. Without the miscues in the 2nd an 9th innings, we win this game by a decent margin. When the bullpen is an issue, fielding definitely gets magnified.
That said, I love the fight! Down 6-1, let’s work our way back in. Down one run in the 9th, let’s put together a rally. This is a fun team to root for!
Is Pollock faster than Verdugo? I’m not aware that he is faster. Does anyone else think that Verdugo would have caught that fly ball that Pollock could not get to? Then on the next play, he bobbles the base hit to him and loses the game. Verdugo to CF and Pollock in left?
I’m not picking on Pollock, but I’m acutely aware of how poorly the Dodgers are defensively. It’s almost like they’ve abandoned the concept of locked down defense in favor of their massive hitting attack. The amount of errors the infield is making is mind boggling. It’s costing us runs and games. 6 runs, 2 of them earned, cost Buehler the game. Hopefully, the team will be addressing this.
It’s game seven of the 2019 WS against the Yankees. Dodgers hold a 3-2 lead at home and call on KJ to get the last three outs and make the Dodgers the 2019 World Champions. Admit it, who’s not chewing their nails and ass puckering the sofa?
The BP is need of some solid reinforcement and we should see some help in the next 10 days or so. Don’t know who it might be, but lets hope it’s not another Matt Latos, Jim Johnson, Ryan Madsen, John Axford do over.
You are looking at the micro, instead of the macro. Every team has errors, but overall, the Dodgers are #1 in baseball in defensive runs saved.
Just not gonna win a WS with this bullpen. Plain and simple! Balls in your court AF!
Verdugo also threw out a runner at home from left field in the Boston series. Pollack was playing deep and had a long way to come in to make that play. Neither Verdugo or Pollock are burners, and certainly not in the class of Lorenzo Cain and some other elite center fielders who most likely would have caught that ball.
And without having looked at that play over and over again, I did have a feeling that Muncy might have been able to make the catch if he hadn’t pulled up just before the ball dropped.
To the best of my knowledge the Dodgers’ defense has been good this year.
No sense crying over spilt milk. It’s done, move on, there’s always tomorrow, the day after, and so on.
Buehler – 6 IP – 2 ER…
As Porky Pig would say “That’s all Folks”…
So you really want hit the first guy up??? Bull___j
If Kike was playing second in the last inning he might have gotten to that ground ball single and most definitely would have gotten to the pop fly that fell in front of Pollock.
You win some, you lose some. Tonight we lost.