2019 Prospects Rising

A few weeks back there was a recommendation that we provide our opinion on the risers and fallers this year in the LAD Minor League system, and suggested that the AS break would be a good time. DC offered his input a week or so ago, and now I would like to provide my admittedly myopic (and shortsighted?) insight. I apologize for the length, but it is hard for me to limit my thoughts when it comes to our beloved minor leaguers.

First, I would like to at least acknowledge players who have matriculated all the way to the LAD dugouts. If there is a definition of risers, those rising to the pinnacle of their profession have to be considered. Will Smith, Matt Beaty, Kyle Garlick, Tony Gonsolin, Edwin Rios, and to a far lesser degree, Josh Sborz. Certainly congratulations are more than warranted. Of that group, I see Will Smith becoming a regular with LAD, perhaps as early as this year. Tony G could be a staple in the LAD rotation as early as next year. I am a Matt Beaty fan, and can certainly see value in the 26-year-old as a utility corner infield/LF player who could also be an emergency catcher. But he may also have the most trade value of the remaining three position players who have played at the ML level this year. Kyle Garlick is a prototypical #4/#5 OF RH bat off the bench. Nothing wrong with that. He has sufficient power potential to entice some teams in trade talks. Edwin Rios looks very much the DH/1B/3B who may be a better fit in the AL. He is sufficiently blocked by Max Muncy whose best position is his LH bat.

I have no idea what to expect out of Josh Sborz. He is not ready yet for the spotlight, but solid relief pitchers sometimes take longer to fully develop. He is well worth the patience the Dodgers are showing him.

As an aside, for a team that has the best record in MLB, how fantastic is it that 6 players who started the year on a minor league team have risen to the ML dugout? If all remain with the LAD organization, all will be with the Big-League team come September. That also does not take into account the accomplishments of their CF rookie who has been with the 25-man team all season…Alex Verdugo.

OKC (AAA) – Currently the three best prospects who have each exceeded expectations this year are Gavin Lux (21) SS, Dustin May (21) RHSP, and Zach Reks (25) OF. We all know that Lux and May are two prized prospects who just participated in the Futures Game. Both could be on the 25-man roster as rookies to begin 2020. But perhaps one of the quickest risers in the entire organization is the LH hitting OF Zach Reks. Reks came to the Dodgers as a 10th round selection in the 2017 draft from the University of Kentucky, as a fifth year senior. Both DC and I have written quite a bit about Reks since he was drafted two years ago. He has a remarkable come back story that makes it impossible not to pull for him. But Zach has more than done his part. This year he started the season at Tulsa. His start got him assigned to AAA on May 16. All he has done since his promotion is hit .292/.371/.538/.910 at OKC. Combined with Tulsa his slash line is .299/.380/.555/.935. He has 12 HRs at OKC (and 21 on the year). That is a significant accomplishment since he was not considered a power hitter coming out of the draft. Reks is not considered one of the top prospects because of his age. However there is no doubt in my mind that Reks has the tools and professional makeup to be a ML OF. He does strikeout at a 25% clip this year, but with the increased power, that can be accepted. That is a 2% increase over 2018. With the LAD he is probably a #4/#5, but with a lesser talented team, he could be a regular.

Tulsa (AA) – The fastest riser currently on the Tulsa roster is RHRP, Jordan Sheffield (24). Jordan recognized (probably grudgingly), that his best shot at being a ML pitcher is as a high leverage reliever. Sheff was converted to relief late last year, and while his control is still somewhat spotty at times, he has been an exceptional option out of the pen at both Rancho and Tulsa. I would not be surprised at all to see Sheff get a call to AAA before the year is out. Over the two levels, Jordan has pitched in 31 games, 35.1 IP, with a 2.55 ERA and 1.019 WHIP. In his 35.1 IP, he has 54 strikeouts, but 23 walks. He is going to need to cut back on those walks if he wants to get to the ML level. I think with more experience and concentrating on being a reliever, and trusting his arm in short outings, he can gain that confidence to go after hitters. IMO, Sheff will be protected in December, and have a legit shot with a ML relief role with LAD next year.

I am still a huge Omar Estevez fan, and if it were not for Gavin Lux, Omar would be considered the in-house candidate for 2B. Unfortunately, Omar was injured for a significant number of games (from May 15 to July 4). But he got off to such a fantastic start. He has limited HR power, but is a solid gap hitter who has a lot of doubles. He led the California League in doubles in 2018. He is three months younger than Lux who is getting better every year.

Edwin Uceta (21) is a top prospect, but his status has not changed. 21 in AA is considered a legit long-term prospect. RHRP Andre Scrubb (24) has done enough to solidify his position and get protected in December. He is not flashy, but has shown enough to be considered for a future in the LAD bullpen. The same is true for LHRP Logan Salow (24), one of DC’s favorites.

3B Cristian Santana (22) remains a highly valued prospect. He had a monster breakout year in 2017, but cooled off considerably in 2018. He appears to be back on track for 2019. For 2018 at RC, Cristian hit .274/.302/.447/.749. For 2019 at Tulsa, he is slashing at .302/.325/.436/.761. Still light on his OPS for a corner infielder, but at 22 he can still learn better plate discipline and develop more power. While he is only striking out at 22%, his walk to strikeout ratio is 9 to 71.

For me, the biggest surprise this year is 25-year-old RHP, Parker Curry. Parker was a 2017 Undrafted Free Agent out of Samford. In two years he has risen to AA and has more than held his own. He both starts and relieves. In 14 games (7 starts) he has accumulated 44.1 IP, and a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. They are not eye-popping stats, but they respectable especially for an undrafted free agent. Throw out his first game of the year, and those numbers become even better looking. His last game (July 9), Parker pitched 6.1 innings allowing 1 run on two hits, 0 walks, and 3 K’s. IMO, he has elevated himself to at least see what he can do at the AAA level.

Rancho Cucamonga (High A) – This level has seen three players jump as much as anyone else in the organization. My favorite is 21-year-old RHSP Josiah Gray. I know most like to think that Jeter Downs was the prize in the Kyle Farmer trade, but something in me thinks that the brass really liked Gray, and probably insisted on him being included. Josiah has done nothing to disappoint. Gray started at Great Lakes and dominated in 5 starts and was promptly promoted to RC. In 11 starts in the very hitter friendly California League, Gray is 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has 73 Ks in 60.1 IP and only 12 walks. On June 14, he went head to head with the consensus #1 MiLB pitching prospect, MacKenzie Gore, and more than held his own. To say he is dominating in A+, would not be giving him justice. I have to believe he is on the short list for a AA promotion.

DC has already written quite a bit on the rise of 2B Devin Mann (22). The Dodgers seem to have a plethora of more than capable 2B prospects, and Mann has to be considered near the top.

Another fast riser is 19-year-old 3B/1B Miguel Vargas. The Midwest League is a notorious pitcher’s league, but it did not phase the young corner infielder. In 70 games (280 AB) he hit .325/.399/.464/.864. He has a very small sample size of 7 games and 25 AB in RC. The one area where Vargas is going to need to show improvement will be in his power. But it has been stated more times on this site that power is the last thing that comes.

One of my personal favorites is 22-year-old LHP Leo Crawford. I first started following Leo in 2016 at AZL and then in his championship run at Great Lakes (with fellow LHP Caleb Ferguson). Leo pitched the game of his career on July 9 with a complete game 3 hit shutout, no walks, and 10 Ks. He now has a 2.99 ERA in the California League. He would have the #3 ERA in the League if he had 1.0 more inning pitched. At 22, he still needs to be considered a prospect, something that was not all that certain in the beginning of the season.

Others to be considered are RF Niko Hulsizer (22), RHRP Brett de Geus (21), RHP Andre Jackson (23), SS Jeter Downs (20), and my surprise dark horse LHP Connor Mitchell (23).

Great Lakes (Full Season A) – It is certainly hard to project future stars at this level and below. But there are a several candidates that need to be considered as potential risers. As previously mentioned, the Midwest League is considered a pitcher’s league. As a 19-year-old, Gavin Lux hit an uninspiring .244/.331/.362/.693 in 501 PA at Great Lakes. Comparatively, 20-year-old SS/2B Jacob Amaya is slashing .260/.373/.405 in 365 PA. He has a less than 17% K rate. 62 strikeouts vs 55 walks. That is very impressive bat to ball skills for a 20-year-old in a pitcher’s league. Jacob has split his defensive time between 2B (36 GS) and SS (40 GS). He is considered an above average defensive middle infielder who can stick at SS. He is not disappointing offensively or defensively.

LHSP John Rooney (22) is a little older for the Midwest League, and I would like to see what he can do at the tougher California League. He has been both hot and cold this year. He started late and got roughed up in his 2nd and 3rd start, but then reeled off four exceptional games. His last three have been okay, but he is also at 48.2 IP compared to 20 last year, so he is probably hitting some kind of wall that he is going to need to fight through.

After starting his first 5 games in 2019, RHP Guillermo Zuniga (20) is now settling in as a reliever. His starts were rough, but then went on a 6-game stretch where he allowed 0 runs on 2 hits and 0 walks, with 5 K’s. Zuniga may also have hit a wall as his last three games have been wanting. Guillermo is also going to need to fight through this rough patch, but he has shown enough that he needs to be considered a potential future bullpen arm.

I am excited to see how far RHP Jack Little (21) can go this year. He has been outstanding since signing out of Stanford. He is the first 2019 draftee to get to full season A ball, and if he continues to impress, he could find himself in the California League by the end of summer.

While they are both blocked, much can be said about the development of both Great Lakes catchers, Jair Camargo (20) and Hunter Feduccia (22). Camargo can play other positions, and is much better at throwing runners out. Feduccia looks to be a better offensive option, at least at this time.

LHSP Robinson Ortiz (19), is already considered a solid prospect and has been outstanding in his last 6 starts (out of a total of 9). He is certainly worthy of his #24 LAD prospect status. Should he bypass fellow LHSP John Rooney in the prospect rankings? I will let the more qualified talent evaluators make their call on that.

Ogden (Rookie League) – DC wrote an outstanding post on the 2019 Raptors team. I just want to reiterate that the one player that may have elevated himself more than any other Dodger farm hand is 18-year-old Dominican RF Andy Pages. This is his first year in the US and is hitting .311/.422/.689/1.111 in 90 PA. DC has already written where Andy’s offensive numbers stand in the Pioneer League.

Two of my personal favorites are 2B Jeremy Arocho (20) and RHP Elio Serrano (20). I have no idea why Arocho has not been given the opportunities others have. He is back in the Pioneer League after hitting .313/.401/.380/.781 in 2018. In 2019, he is slashing .387/.587/.419/1.006. So Jeremy has not pouted about being held back. IMO, he deserves a chance at Great Lakes.

Elio Serrano started at Rancho as a reliever and pitched well in his three relief appearances. 1 run and 4 hits over 5 innings. He was moved back to extended ST in AZ to stretch out to see if he could develop into a starter. When assigned to Ogden, he was not as successful in his three starts, but then on July 8, he went back into the pen and pitched a perfect two innings with 3 Ks.

I am also very intrigued with yet another 2B Sam McWIlliams (21), and 3B Justin Yurchak (22).

AZL and DSL – I am extremely excited about the 2018 International FA trifecta of catcher Diego Cartaya (17), SS/2B Alex De Jesus (17), and RHSP Jerming Rosario (17)_. This is an exceptional group (and there are others in that IFA class).

Everyone knows about the start of 3B Kody Hoese (21) who I think can bypass Ogden and move to Great Lakes. But then nobody pays me to make those decisions. Other rookie league players that have caught my eye this year are RHP Andrew Budier (19), RHP Jeffry Abreu (19), RHP Hyun-il Choi (19), CF Yunior Garcia (17), 2B (yes another) Aldo Espinoza, and 6’7” RHP Carlos Duran (17).

I also do not like to downplay players, so I am going to leave that alone for right now. I do have a list of disappointments thus far, but I will keep them to myself. Many of them are still too young to give up on, while many on my list are destined to be released. It is a facet of baseball that many have to face.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT BY AC

OKC Dodgers – All Star Break – International League All Stars vs. Pacific Coast League All Stars – Tonight in El Paso. Dustin May takes the hill against the Memphis Redbirds on Thursday.

Tulsa Drillers 4 – Springfield Cardinals 8

J.D. Martin started and went 5.0 innings surrendering 6 runs (4 earned) on 9 hits and 2 walks, with 4 strikeouts. Michael Boyle, Logan Salow, and Logan Landon each pitched a scoreless inning. Yordy Cabrera allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk in his 1.0 IP. This was OF Logan Landon’s second relief appearance, and he is still unscored on in 2.0 innings. Offensively, down 8-1 with two outs in the 9th, two walks were followed by a 2 run double (13) by Zach McKinstry, which was followed by a run scoring single by Errol Robinson, to close out the scoring at 8-4. McKinstry went 3-3, while Cristian Santana had a 2-4 night.

RC Quakes 2 – San Jose Giants 5

Dereck Rodriguez and Grant Frisbee combined to pitch a 5 hit gem for the Giants to break the Quakes 9 game winning streak. Austin Hamilton started for the Quakes and went 4.2 innings allowing 3 runs on 5 hits, before being lifted for Bryan Warzak, who pitched 1.1 scoreless innings. Austin Drury followed and allowed 2 additional runs, before Brett de Geus finished up the final 1.2 innings without allowing any additional scoring. The offense was supplied by a Jeren Kendall (11) and Niko Hulsizer (4) solo HR. Starling Heredia contributed his 7th double of the season.

Great Lakes Loons 6 – Cedar Rapids Kernels 2 (Twins)

After giving up 2 runs in the first two innings, 20-year-old RHP Jose Martinez settled down and pitched 5 additional scoreless innings. Justin Hagenman finished up with 2 perfect innings with 2 Ks to seal the victory. A Dillon Paulson HR (12), a Luke Heyer double (8), and 5 singles and 5 walks generated sufficient offense to score the six runs.

Ogden Raptors 9 – Idaho Falls Chukars 3 (Royals)

Sauryn Lao led a 14-hit attack with a 4-4 night, including 2 doubles (9). Sam McWilliams and Brandon Lewis (4th round 2019 draftee) each added a pair of hits including a double. Andy Pages and Ramon Rodriguez also added doubles on the evening. Alfredo Tavarez started and went 3.0 innings allowing 2 of the 3 runs. Yeison Cespedes allowed the third run in his 2.0 innings of work. Reza Aleaziz and Hunter Speer each pitched a pair of scoreless innings.

AZL Dodgers Mota 5 – AZL Rangers 16

6 Mota pitchers took the mound and after the carnage, the Rangers scored 16 runs on 19 hits and 10 walks. Only 2019 draftee (20th round) Zack Plunkett was unscored on. Ismael Alcantara went 2-3. Kenneth Betancourt hit his 2nd double, Luis Diaz hit his sixth triple, while 2019 35th round draft pick Justin Washington hit his first professional HR, providing all of the offense.

AZL Dodgers Lasorda 4 – AZL White Sox 0

Three Lasorda pitchers combined to shut out the AZL White Sox. 18-year-old Dominican RHP, Israiky Berroa, started and went 5.0 innings. He yielded 3 hits 1 walk, and registered 7 Ks. Yujo Kitagita pitched 1.o inning, and 20-year-old RHP Adolfo Ramirez finished with 3.0 IP. He did allow 2 hits, but got 5 K’s. Jorbit Vivas had a 2-run scoring single in the third. A HBP, a stolen base, an Aldo Espinoza run scoring double (3), followed by a run scoring single by Aldrich De Jongh closed out the scoring on the night.

DSL Dodgers Bautista 4 – DSL Royals 8

5 of the 8 Bautista hits were doubles; Harold Restituyo (2), Carlos Santiago (5), Joel Ibarra (4), Jenderson Jardines (3), and Luis Yan (2). Yan added a single for the only Bautista with a multi-hit game.

19-year-old LHP Andrew Budier had a rare off day. He allowed 5 runs (2 earned), on 4 hits and 1 walk in 0.2 IP. 3 pitchers followed, each allowing 1 run with a combined 4 hits and 8 walks allowed. They did accumulate 4 strikeouts.

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 8 – DSL Indians 6

Juan Diaz (2) and Eynar Machin (1) each hit HRs, with Machin getting a 3 run shot. Mario Cairo had a multi-XBH day with q double (9) and triple (2). Rushenten Tomsjansen also hit a triple (3). Bladimir De La Rosa had 2 hits for the day. Harold Galindo started for the Shoemakers and pitched a solid 5.0 innings. He yielded 1 unearned run on 3 hits, 0 walks, with 4 strikeouts. Jeremi Rodriguez and Duany Gomez followed in an undistinguished manner for the final 4.0 innings.

This article has 74 Comments

  1. Wow! That piece sets the bar for the Best Minor League Overview EVER in the HIstory of the World!

    Outstanding!

    What is also outstanding is how the system is teeming with prospects at every level. I have never seen it so loaded.

    1. That is a very impressive boast that you haven’t seen it so loaded. That makes me very excited. It’s very hard for me to keep track of so many of these kids, you do a great job of it. Now, it’s time to make a deal! There will be tears as everyone has their favorites, but it is necessary to try to make the team as air tight as possible to continue this run.

      1 More day of no baseball, can’t wait for Friday. It’s going to be tough facing some good lefties for these guys coming off the DL all at the same time.

  2. I agree. Such good information from all of you guys. This has to be the best site for Dodger baseball. The farm system really looks good and winning at all levels. I love coming here 2-3 times a day.

  3. I want to go back to something DC tried to hammer home as to how he feels about Andy Pages. Before DC’s write up on him, I was preparing to do more of what I included above. I first started to follow Pages in the DSL. While his numbers didn’t stand out, he always seemed to be in the middle of the action. His bat to ball skills were evident, and his plate discipline for someone in the DSL was very good. He was one I was hoping would get a US team this year. And while looks can be deceiving at the rookie league level, he sure has caught the attention of many. No player has jumped out as much as Pages thus far. Zach Reks and Miguel Vargas come closest as making big leaps.

    I also want to reemphasize how I feel about Jacob Amaya. The 2017 draft has had some disappointments, but I was most excited about High School SS Jacob Amaya, and wrote about him at the time. Just like Gavin Lux did at Great Lakes, Jacob started slowly, but is gaining momentum every game. He is hitting better all around than did Gavin at Great Lakes. Jacob is nearly 80 points higher OPS than Gavin was at GL. Jacob will never develop the power that Gavin has, but then he was never expected to.

    Full season A Ball is one of the toughest leagues to get acclimated for. It is the first exposure to a looooong 140 game season, and some less than quality transportation and living conditions. More often than not full season A Ball will drive out many who find the grind is too much. Those that can persevere their first exposure to a long season can then look to better define their skills at the next level. Survive in A Ball, and showcase your talents at A+.

    Great Lakes is certainly not a place where hitters shine. There are certainly exceptions. Miguel Vargas this year, Cristian Santana two years ago, and even a young 19 year old Corey Seager hit well at GL. But then again Corey is a 2 time Silver Slugger at the ML level. A more contemporary comp may be Jeter Downs who played in the same league last year. Jeter slashed .257/.351/.402/.753. He had 23 doubles, 2 triples, and 13 HRs in 524 PA. He had a 52 to 103 BB/K ratio. Thus far, Jacob has 21 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 HRs in 369 PA. His BB/K ratio is 55/62. Jacob is striking out a a 16.8% clip, while Jeter stuck out at a 19.7% clip. With all the love for Jeter (and deservedly so) where is all the love for Jacob Amaya. If Amaya can push his numbers up a bit more and hit north of .270 or .275 before the year is out, he will establish himself as a potential legit top 10 prospect. He is already at #11.

    1. I love to hear about Amaya. He’s a total dirt bag from a baseball Mecca in West Covina. There is so much baseball going on in that area, it’s no surprise that we have someone doing so well from there. I love to see it when a prospect gets drafted by the team he grew up rooting for. He’ll be a favorite when he gets to the Ravine!

    2. His play last night was definitely the best defensive play of the game. He had to go back hand, round the ball properly and make a wrong-footed throw on a do or die play to get the runner busting it down the line. It was a big league looking defensive play.
      ~
      BTW, Heyer’s double last night should have bee caught in my opinion. The LF for CR froze initially and then couldnt’ recover in time. It was struck well but a better jump catches the ball I think.

  4. Trade Deadline Wish-list & Predictions ? Anyone ??

    – Ken Giles
    – Tony Watson or another Hard Throwing Lefty.
    – Whit Merrefield or good RH Hitter.

    – Trade Kike

    Call up May, Lux, Smith, Peters … ( Anytime for Second Half or September )

    1. Wish List? Brad Hand or Felipe Lopez/Vazquez. Granted I know both likely don’t get dealt as both teams are right in the hunt.

      Prediction? We do a deal for Will Smith (yaye!) or Tony Watson (blah) from SF. Prediction #2? We sell high on Joc to an AL team where he’s allowed to play every day and he hits 40hr for the entire 2019. Also in a related prediction, due to my Joc trade prediction, Bum refuses to shake my hand when I finally meet him.

      2nd half prediction? Pollock wakes up and makes our lineup insanely deep from 1-7. When Will Smith is finally given the job for good, our lineup will be deep 1-8

      1. I actually don’t think Joc will be traded until the off-season. I think he’ll play mostly 1B in a straight platoon with Freese. I think Freese is the perfect platoon candidate with Joc, even more so than Kike because Freese can hit lefties and righties allowing them to pinch hit for Joc when a lefty reliever comes in without getting exposed in the next AB when a righty comes in. But, I would rather have Abreu than a platoon.

        The lineup looks incredibly stacked, like the Big Red Machine of the 70’s. 3 guys capable of playing CF in the OF. Turner, Seager, Muncy with a Joc/Freese platoon at 1B. Will Smith needs to be the starting catcher at the end of the year.

        Ryu, Bueller, Urias, Kershaw has the potential to be the best post-season rotation ever! When it’s all said and done, each of them are capable of picking up a Cy Young award in the near future. That future could be very near for Ryu.

        The weak link is the pen. In my opinion, only Jansen, Kelly and Baez are my picks for a post season pen. Maeda and Hill can try out for that pen soon enough when Urias joins the rotation. Jansen, Kelly and Baez all have some warts, so we can use 2 upgrade arms, or we can get really lucky with Alexander, Ferguson, Chargois.

        This team is great! But, there’s always room to improve. You just have to stop hugging the prospects so tightly.

    2. Wish list:
      2 of
      Vazquez
      Hand
      Smith
      Greene

      And one of
      Abreu
      Rendon
      Merrifield

      Prediction – No one on either list.

        1. I’d like to think they would go out and get a few of these guys, but MT has me brainwashed to think they won’t. I’m pretty sure they were saying the same thing about how we would not get Manny Machado last year for all the same reasons as this year, but that happened. So, I’m secretly keeping my hopes up.

    3. Wish list:
      Win the world series and continue to make it to the post season/world series for the foreseeable future.

      Prediction:
      Due to so many teams in the wild card picture and due to the high price tag for pitching, the Dodgers don’t add an impact player. But Dave Roberts convinces Friedman that he needs a left handed pitcher that can be at least a loogy. Friedman gets Jake Diekman.

  5. AC… very thorough write up. We are so lucky to have you, Mark, DC, and 2D2 to keep us informed especially someone like me who can not get out to minor league games. But, you guys keep us posted on how the young men are doing and we remember the names and root for them. We are so loaded in the minor league system. I worry we will lose some of them because we have so many talented young men and not enough places to put them and hope the ones who do not make it up to the big club find a place with some other major league team .

  6. Pedro Moura of The Athletic wrote this:

    https://theathletic.com/1067920/2019/07/10/if-dodgers-keep-dominating-dave-roberts-could-make-his-own-history/

    In part it says:

    While they chase an early clinch of the National League West title, Roberts could inch closer toward a major managing feat. Through 580 games, he now owns the fourth-best all-time winning percentage among 324 qualified managers — .598. If the 60-32 Dodgers continue winning near this year’s .652 pace, Roberts could become baseball’s all-time winningest manager, by percentage, before the end of next season.

    When told those figures last week, Roberts described himself as taken aback. He argued his record reflects the franchise’s success more than his own.

    “It’s just a credit to the entire organization,” he said. “Whether it’s a starting pitcher or a manager who gets a win for their record, those X amount of wins that I have, it’s an organizational win. That’s the only way I look at it.”

    It’s a great read about one of the best managers in baseball.

    1. I’ll agree with Roberts on that “He argued his record reflects the franchise’s success more than his own.” Don Mattingly proves that point beautifully.

      Not bad for a guy that doesn’t make his own lineup!

  7. I noticed Ruiz did not get a mention at Tulsa, but he is may have a better 2nd half like he did last year. He still needs to prove himself at AA and then AAA. I read The Pirates wanted 2 from a list of Lux, May, Ruiz and Smith for Vasquez which was too much for AF. Maybe they take Joc or Kike instead plus Ruiz?

    I don’t think the team wants to mess with the chemistry the team has going and adding Corey, AJ and Freese for Beaty, Garlick and Rios is a huge lift for the lineup. The rotation is full for now so the obvious place to target is the bullpen but not at an unlimited cost. I have been impressed with Shaggy and he may have turned a corner with his command. If no leftie is brought in then one from The Cup, Alexander and Caleb will be the loogie and that can certainly stand to be upgraded. I can’t figure out if they will go big or small or somewhere in between, should be interesting the next few weeks.

    Next year Smith probably makes the jump out of ST and Lux will get every opportunity but they sent Verdugo back to AAA for another season before promoting him. Seager they moved up the timetable a year so it depends on how Lux handles major league pitching when he gets the chance. May will get a chance in ST too to stick in the rotation next season so they could potentially have 3 ROY candidates or 2 or 1 depending on if they are ready.

    1. Ruiz was one of the last to hit the editor’s floor. He is highly thought of and will no doubt be a factor in the near future for a ML regular position. But I just do not think he has progressed as much as he might have. Maybe the changes that he is doing will translate into something special the second half or next year. He is still only throwing out 23% of AA base runners. It was not meant as a slight.

  8. Interesting wish lists.

    My take is that if as reported it’s gonna take 2 from Ruiz, Lux, Smith or Gonsolin to get Vasquez then I would do it.

    The BP is undoubtedly the weak link, but we are not talking about a rental here. Vasquez is under control for 4 more years at a very friendly rate.

    Kenley can opt out after this season, which although unlikely, would mean we would need another Closer anyway.
    If he doesn’t, we can ride a Kenley/Felipe combo for two years, while we still have this great window, with all this young talent.

    In 2 years, Vasquez can take over the Closing duties, so a future problem avoided, at affordable terms.

    Its always difficult to trade away an unknown quantity, for fear of missing the next Yordan Alvarez.
    However, we have 2 potential every day starting Catchers, and potentially more in the pipeline. We can afford to lose one, although painful.

    I keep Lux, because 2nd base has been fairly unproductive for many years, and I like what I’ve seen and heard.
    So, it’s Gonsolin that goes, with one of Ruiz or Smith.

    If this seems too heavy in favour of Pittsburgh, then we could get funky, as AF often does.
    I’m sure Pittsburgh would like to move Archer. Maybe we could help them there, as Hill & Ryu are set to leave, and we could slot Archer in as a 3/4th Starter.

    Maybe there’s some additional Prospects that could be swapped as well.

    Vasquez is the real deal, possibly the best Closer in the game.
    His arrival would give everyone a lift, and if it doesn’t work, he solves potential problems in the future.

    1. Good points Watford, go big or go home as some like to say. Doc had a front row seat for Smith and Hand in the AS game and they did not deliver. Our Smith is ready and Ruiz is a couple years away so I would include Ruiz but not Lux, Smith or May in a trade for Vasquez and then add lessor pieces. Those pieces could be major league ready talent like Joc or Kike or a basket of lower prospects. It takes two to trade so it’s really in the Pirates court. I would absolutely include Gonsolin with Ruiz but that probably won’t be enough. I think Kike is about to lose playing time with the return of injured players and Joc’s value after the HR Derby is sky high. Not saying the Dodgers will do it but they certainly could and maybe should.

      1. I know that article stated that Pitt would ask for two of our top 4-5 prospects. We also know that it won’t take 2 of our top 4-5 when it’s all said and done. Negotiations will take place, and the teams will settle on 1 of the top 4-5 and then some others.

        And yes, because of Will Smith and because of Cartaya behind him, perhaps Ruiz would be more expendable than a May or Lux. You do have to give to get. Ruiz has not progressed as much this year, where Felipe Vazquez and his cheap contract have looked fantastic. Granted, it’s in crappy Pitt where nobody cares and perhaps he’d not be as effective in the bright lights of a Dodger pennant race, but we don’t know that until he gets a chance to show it.

        Either way, trading from a surplus to vill the biggest void on our team should definitely be considered. And before anyone asks, yes, I would have traded a Urias for a Chris Sale 3 years ago. That non-move likely cost us a ring or 2.

        1. Thank you on your last statement. I have been saying that for three years. You might guess that my position has not been well received.

        2. Before anyone asks i would have:

          1. Drafted Mike Trout
          2. Traded Willie Calhoun for Mookie Betts
          3. Traded Jose DeLeon for Jacob DeGrom
          4. Forgone signing Y. Alvarez for Eloy Jimenez

          1. None of your scenarios were ever considered. It has been largely reported that the Dodgers could have had Chris Sale at the 2016 trade deadline if they were willing to include Urias. I also heard it from someone who was previously a very reliable source for Dodger transactions. This was directly after Sale cut up the throw back jerseys and was suspended. The ChiSox were sellers and wanted to move him. FAZ said no to including Urias, and Boston made the trade the next winter.

            How close were the Dodgers to making the trade? We will never know. But it was not only plausible, but it was discussed in some detail.

        3. Top comment of the day Bobby! Way too much logic here. Yes, I agree with you Ruiz and Gonsolin for Vazquez deal. Maybe we can add another lower level prospect (Kendall Jeren), or add solid Stripling to the deal and receive Francisco Liriano as well.

          I’m on the fence for the Sale/Urias debate. You can make a case, as you did, but Urias is the other half of the future of the rotation and he’s going to be a big part of winning the ring this year.

      2. Vegas like the saying goes,Its better to trade a player a year earlier than a year to late so I say Joc goes.

  9. Thanks for all the great information! We are truly spoiled to have this fantastic blog! Now, a simplistic view. AF has provided the organization with an exceptional 40 man and 25 man roster for a 162 game season. We have a top ten farm system which is extremely difficult to do from our draft position. We are closing in on financial independence as the bad contracts are going to go away in the foreseeable future. We are regular division champions and consecutive year World Series runnerups which is a great resume in itself. We lead the majors in attendance. The Dodgers are excellent now with an excellent future. A helluva job by the entire organization.

    As far as Roberts he is right to say he is enjoying the system wins. I don’t think he is the best or worst manager. He has been blessed to be in a great system. I have issues with his numbskull moves and his blathering tongue. You can say look at the results and the debate begins. I think when the manager really shows his worth is when the talent is equal such as a World Series. Over the course of a full season the Dodgers can overwhelm the competition. In a short series against Boston, Houston, Yankees etc where the talent is comparable you can’t afford numbskull moves. Thus far, I believe Roberts has been outmanaged, just my opinion. Hopefully, that will change this year.

    If we get to the World Series can we win it? We have the talent provided we add to the bullpen and we are mostly healthy. However, the players have to step up and play at the top of their game. Also, the playoff roster is huge and the managerial, coaching plan by Honeycutt is vital. I believe they have to ignore egos and focus on winning only. That means somebody not named kershaw opening the series.

    1. In a 7 game series with home field advantage, I might start Buehler in Game 1, but I would definitely start Ryu in Game 2. Ryu could then start Game 6 at home. Assuming that scenario, Kershaw would start Game 3, but would then start Game 7 if needed.

      In a 5 game home field advantage series, Ryu would start Game 1, and then be in a position to start Game 5 at Home.

      1. AC….can we make you the honorary Manager when we make the WS this year? (Not that Roberts does not do a good job) I agree with your pitching selections. Buehler and Ryu do not seem to let the pressure of the game get to them. and seem to be able to go longer innings. Now, who would you bring in to relieve?

      2. I’m totally on board with this assessment. Ryu is the MONSTER and it’s totally deserving to treat him as the ace of the staff if he keeps up his current pace in the second half. I also prefer a veteran starting the first game, especially in the first series. It’s a little sad to see the changing of the guard with Kershaw, but he’s no longer the ace he once was. Did you ever think that Kershaw would become the softest tosser in the rotation? He’s doing a nice job reinventing himself, but there isn’t enough in there to be his old dominant self.

      3. In a series of 5 Kershaw my rotation is not: Buehler, Ryu, Urias, in a series of 7 maybe include kershaw it would be like this :, Buehler, Ryu, Urias, kershaw, if it’s okay Hill then Buehler, Ryu, Urias, Hill, I’m sorry, Kershaw, you’re going to the bullpen.

  10. Vazquez is definitely available because…………………………………….everyone is available for the right price. The question is will anyone pay it.
    The NL Central is there for the taking so the Pirates will want some major league ready players if they give up their closer.
    I’m thinking something like Smith (to make up for Cervelli who isn’t catching any longer), Baez and Ferguson (to somewhat make up for the loss of Vazquez) and Rios to fill in wherever they need him (1st, 3rd, left). Is that too much? That’s up to AF and the rest of you to decide. Too little? That’s up to the Pirates to decide.

  11. 1 The Dodgers are NOT getting Vasquez, Hand, Giants Smith for obvious reasons.

    2 The Dodgers are NOT trading Joc Pederson.

    1. #2 – I agree, Joc will probably not be traded, at least not this season

      #1 – Please remind me again what the obvious reasons are. Farhan and AF have repeatedly stated they would trade with each other, so getting Smith is possible if we pay the price. Vazquez and Hand are available if we overpay. You may think Friedman won’t do that and you could very well be correct, but if he wants them badly enough he can get it done.

      1. Singing The Blue

        The obvious reasons for Vasquez are:
        1 Their GM said he is not trading him.
        2 It would take AT LEAST 2 of our top 4 prospects.
        3 The Pirates are still alive in the wild card picture.

        The obvious reasons for Hand are:
        1 It would take 2 of our top 4 prospects.
        2 The Indians are still alive in the wild card picture.

        The obvious reasons for Giants Smith are:
        1 It would take 2 of our top 4 prospects.
        2 The Giants GM said he would want 30% more from any team within their division. vs any other teams.
        3 I don’t buy the reporting that the Dodgers and Giants could make a deal. I realize this one is just my opinion and it is not an obvious.

        1. BB, where did you read that 30% comment from the Giants GM? I absolutely don’t believe Farhan thinks that way. Maybe it was a broadcaster or fan who said he should demand it, but he’s too smart to feel that way himself. He’ll trade wherever he gets the best deal, especially since the Giants won’t make the playoffs this year. Also, although it’s possible that Cleveland and Pittsburgh would start by asking for 2 of our best 4, there is absolutely no way that Zaidi asks that for a 2-3 month rental. Just my opinion. You can call me on it, when they get Ruiz, May and Lux for Smith tomorrow. 🙂

          1. Singing The Blue

            On Dodger Talk with David Vassegh.

            I already told you what I read about Vasquez and Hand.

  12. Goods write up AC. Very thorough analysis of some of the risers in the organization. Some prospects I still like who haven’t necessarily “risen,” Rather, they have merely marked time or dealt with injuries are: Donovan Casey, James Outman, Wills Montgomerie, Deacon Liput, Cody Thomas, Jared Walker and Mitch White. I’m not sure that any of these players will be all-stars, but they certainly will be able to perform at the Matt Beaty and Caleb Ferguson levels.

  13. Ruiz, and Jordan Sheffield for Felipe Vazquez. Those are the top individuals but there could be others.

    Ruiz and Baez for Vasquez would give the Dodgers a lefty setup reliever to compliment Jansen and give the Pirates a good reliever to continue competing for the Wild Card, oh, and get a catcher their organization needs.

    Estevez, Stewart, Sborz for Will Smith.

    1. I would do the top and bottom ones, no problem. Hell, I would cut Stewart today, sadly his time has passed. Baez and K-Bear seems steep because you would have to replace Baez’s production. Maybe sub in Joc for Baez? But, I would want Liriano coming back as well. Maybe include Alexander in there as well.

  14. Just read an article that said only Gavin Lux should be the only untouchable prospect. While I would generally include May in there, there’s circumstances where I might trade May for say DeGrom. But, I certainly wouldn’t include him with K-Bear for any closer. I also would add Will Smith because he could actually be the best staring catcher on this team come post-season if they would start letting him play soon.

    Did DJ Peters’ promotion have more to do with the trade deadline than his performance? Rios, Beaty and Garlick all had nice auditions as MLB ready next year. This year on a team that’s phoning it in.

  15. That is an exhaustive list AC. Thank you. I certainly agree with most or all. I too don’t want to write about players who might not have lived up to expectations because of their drafting position or the hype surrounding them. Like 2D2 I have players in mind who might be treading water that I will write about soon.

  16. In a full season in the LF, Joc and CT3 can give me .250, 45 HR and 110 RBI with a + DWAR, how much is a player who can give that performance? What is the obsession to change to Joc? It’s over Pollock, you take away that big Pollock season and it’s the same player as CT3 in CF, Pollock is the strange man here.

    1. Although I agree that Joc/(Take your pick Kike/CT3/Freese) is a productive platoon, it’s still a platoon and none of them has been as good as Pollock defensively, or produced as much consistently on the offensive side of the ball while batting in the middle of the lineup. The smart thing is what they are attempting to do, turn Joc into Freese’s platoon partner at 1B. Pollock, Verdugo and Bellinger are the best defensive outfielders in that order. Don’t SSS me!

      Chris Taylor has OPS’d over 800 exactly one year, striking out 142 times that year and a whopping 178 times the next year, leading the league. Pollock has OPS’d over 800 in 4 separate years including the last two. Take out the year in which he played only 12 games and it would be 4 in a row, while never striking out more than 100 times. He also won a Gold Glove in Center Field with a tough park to defend (with thin air and two points that are over 400 ft from hope plate). He’s only started 28 games with us. Let’s see what he can do. We’ve given CT3 around 500 games and he still hasn’t turned into a full time player.

      1. 59inarow

        Defense? I disagree with you on sacrificing offense for defense. Pollock better offensively than Joc? Better than Freese? Look at OPS stats.

        1. Okay BB, let’s look at OPS for seasons when they played 100 games so we can eliminate Small Sample Size

          Freese, 7 seasons with 100 games played – 2 of them he OPS’d over 800
          Pollock, 4 seasons – 3 of them he OPS’d over 800
          Pederson 4 seasons – 2 of them over 800

          Pederson leads the three in career OPS, but has heavy platoon splits. Pollock is just .007 behind Joc, but has pretty even splits and is a right handed bat providing more balance to the lineup and plays much better defense and runs the bases better. Freese is last and .025 behind Pollock and is limited to first base and a part time role due to his age.

          So, if you look at the entire package, Pollock is the best player of the three and the only one of them capable of playing full time. A Freese/Pederson platoon at first keeps them all in the lineup.

  17. Some time ago I mentioned that Hunter Feduccia caught with one knee on the ground and the other in a squat position. Someone asked if it was taught or a preference. It sounds like both.

    This is the answer from Brad Tunney, Loons play-by-play announcer.

    “So, Hunter was coached this way in Spring Training this year. He says he has trouble with his hip flexibility so this helps him receive better. He knees with the right leg when runners are on and the left leg with nobody on.”

    1. Ouch! If Feduccia already has a problem with hip flexibility at this early stage of his career, maybe he should consider a switch of positions.

  18. Guys think about the lack of offensive production we are getting from the catchers spot with Barnes and Martin. Then think about the potential offensive production we could get at the catchers spot with Smith and Ruiz. Think about that for awhile. 162 games with offensive production from the catchers spot, barring no injuries. Think about that for awhile. The catchers spot is a complicated position to play. Would you rather have a Barnes or worse backing up Smith offensively? Or would you want 162 games with the potential of good offensive production at catcher?

    For the record I’m not saying that Smith and Ruiz are going to be offensive forces. But from what I have read there is a very good chance that happens.

    Also for the record I have nothing against Barnes and Martin because catcher is a complicated position to play.

    1. When the season started, I would have bet that Ruiz was untouchable and Smith was available in the right trade; however, I now think that Barnes’ 2019 season has made Smith’s position in the Dodger scheme of things more solid than ever. Ruiz could easily be two years away and I don’t believe AF is willing to keep Barnes as the first stringer for 2020. I’m feeling that if either catcher is traded this month it will be Ruiz, although I’m absolutely convinced it wouldn’t be for a rental like the other Smith. For Hand or Vazquez, I’m thinking it’s now a possibility, but not in combo with Lux or May. If Friedman is ready to include Ruiz, I think he can get Vazquez although it will take more than just that. In their heart the Pirates know that even if they miraculously reach the wildcard, they won’t go much farther in the playoffs. The Indians, on the other hand, could still catch the Twins and have a decent run in October. If I’m correct about that, Hand is less likely to be available than Vazquez. I know you’re taking the Pirates at their word about not trading Vazquez BB, but I think he’s available for Ruiz and others in a package.

      1. Kluber is on the 60 Day DL and Carrasco is fighting leukemia. I don’t think it’s realistic for them to think they can win a series.

        BB – It’s fun to dream about how good that tandem will be, but Ruiz is probably 2 years away. Conner Wong is also 2 years away. Conner Wong is as athletic as Will Smith. Conner Wong has power like Will Smith. Conner Wong throws out base stealers. As fun as Smith and Ruiz might be, Smith and Wong might be just as fun. Wong will probably wind up being a better defensive catcher than Ruiz and will have more power.

          1. That’s pretty crazy, MT. But, are you telling me that they’re gonna be full strength?

        1. 59inarow

          Well then why is Ruiz rated the #1 Dodger prospect and Wong the #13 Dodger prospect?

          I’d trade Wong in a heartbeat for the right price.

          1. BB – I never said Wong was better, or a higher ranked prospect. I made a case that he will be a backup that wouldn’t be disappointing.

            I am not an expert, I simply stated facts that Wong is better at throwing out base runners, has more power, and is more athletic. All of these are true. Ruiz makes a ton of contact and almost never strikes out, that is very impressive and I’ve always liked Ruiz a lot. I just think he has the biggest name and could bring back a closer and I don’t think Wong can. On top of that, his batting line is going in the wong direction. See what I did there? 😉

  19. Mark, any word on Dennis Santana? Apparently he walked off the mound the other night in the middle of a horrible performance and then left the stadium.

  20. The Dodgers have been re-tooling Kaybear’s swing this year. More uppercut and launch angle. The good news is that he still has exceptional bat-to-ball-contact.

    1. He does not strike out much and while a switch hitter he hits much better from the left side a la Grandal but without the power-yet. He does not play other positions and needs to work on his arm strength but is accurate with his throws. In a perfect world he could be the Scioscia to Smith’s Yeager and they keep both. I am not advocating to trade Ruiz but he is the farthest away of their top 4 prospects. I would do anything short of dope fiend to land Vasquez for both this year’s playoffs and for his controllable contract, closer ability and left handedness. Kenley may continue to regress and they will need to address that at some point. If he pouts about not closing all the time let him opt out, save the $$. I’m not pushing for Joc to be traded but his value is sky high right now and yet with Boston lining up 3 lefties he won’t play much this weekend. CT3 did a fine job while Corey was out, they will need to find him some AB’s and Kike to me is the odd man out. Just throwing some ideas out there because Vasquez is the one guy who fits the best. Make it so AF!

    2. He’ll probably make me look bad for wanting to trade him! He might turn into V-Mart. But, I would sacrifice that lamb for a dependable lefty closer to setup Kenley and to put some pressure on him. Let Kelly and Baez pitch the 6th and 7th and you almost have the “Nasty Boys”. Without him we’re more like the “Back Street Boys”.

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