Mark and I don’t always agree on everything Blue, although I think we are pretty consistent from a Macro view. But when it comes to the bullpen, Mark and I just do not see eye to eye. I have been a relief pitcher wonk since 1959 and Larry Sherry. Clem Labine would have been my favorite Dodger in the mid 50’s. I am not going to go through the history of LAD relief pitchers, but suffice to say, most have been on my short list as favorite Dodgers. So after yesterday’s post, I needed to make another of my counterpoints.
I believe if you have a lead after 7 you should not lose. You should have a bullpen that shuts down the opposition. If you do not have two elite late inning relievers, then you need to get them. Gone are the days of Ron Perranoski, Mike Marshall, or Charlie Hough who could do it themselves. Now teams need two elite late inning high leverage relievers to complete a dominant bullpen.
IMO the Dodgers do not have a dominant bullpen. Their closer is no longer dominant. KJ has not been dominant since he surrendered a game tying HR to Marwin Gonzalez in the 9th inning of Game 2 in the 2017 WS. That HR was the turning point in the entire 2017 WS. The 9th was Jansen’s 2nd inning in that game. Doc was looking for a 6 out save that did not come. After Bregman opened the 8th with a ground rule double off Brandon Morrow, Jansen came in with a 2-run lead and a runner on 2nd. He allowed a single to Carlos Correa allowing the Astros to creep within 1, but got out of the 8th without any further damage. Marwin Gonzalez then led off the 9th with the tying HR on an 0-2 pitch, and the Astros went on to win the game and the WS. Why was Jansen asked to get a 6 out save? Because the Dodgers did not have a deep bullpen.
I know that Doc deserves some of the blame, because he pulled Rich Hill after only 60 pitches in 4 innings. What little bullpen the Dodgers had was used up. It sure would have been nice to see Hill go 6 and then Maeda and Watson in the 7th, and then Morrow in the 8th and KJ in the 9th. Brandon McCarthy would never have been needed.
But both the 2017 and 2018 WS are in the rearview mirror, and we are looking for that elusive championship this year. So is Jansen, Baez, Kelly, Alexander, Garcia, Stripling, Maeda, and Floro a WS caliber bullpen? Not in my opinion. I did not include Urias, because as of right now, I would pencil him in as the #4 starter as long as Hill is on the mend. If Hill comes back as most of us believe he will, then someone will be excluded. With KJ blowing a save against the Cubs on 06/15, and then nearly blowing a save the next two games he pitched, I no longer see him as a dominant closer. After blowing that save (his third blown save), many said that we cannot expect a closer to close them all. Kirby Yates (26-0), Brad Hand (20-0), Will Smith(19-0), Alex Colome (15-0) have been perfect, with Felipe Vazquez (17-1) and Shane Greene (21-1) nearly perfect in save opportunities.
Every one of those pitchers were either traded to their current teams or they were picked up off waivers (Yates from LAA). They did not come from within the organization.
Three trade deadline deals – Brad Hand (with Adam Cimber) from SD to Cleveland for Francisco Mejia (C), Will Smith from Milwaukee to SFG for Phil Bickford (P) and Andrew Susac (C), Felipe Vazquez (and Taylor Hearn) from Nationals to Pittsburgh for Mark Melancon. And two were from Winter trades – In a three-team trade, Shane Greene from Yankees to Detroit, with Robbie Ray (Det) and Domingo Leyba (Det) to Arizona, and Didi Gregorius (AZ) to NYY. So while Mark can say that pitching is unpredictable (and I do not disagree), these teams took the chance to make the trade, and now they have the 5 best closers in baseball. They did not worry about what the players they traded may do for the other team, only what the player they got can do to help them win.
To think that Brad Hand will cost Verdugo, Ruiz, and May is nonsense. He may cost Ruiz and another top 30 prospect (Peters?), but not an everyday CF, and two top three prospects. Smith is rental, while all of the others have at least this year and next under control.
It is probable that Smith and Green will be moved this trade deadline. It is possible that Hand and Colome could be moved depending on where their teams stand at the trade deadline. I have read rumors that Yates could be traded, but I just do not see it. The least likely will be Vazquez. Vazquez (27) is team controlled through 2023.
There will be multiple relievers, some of them even good, who will be traded at the deadline. Why? Because most of the successful GMs believe in elite relievers. Right Brian Cashman, Jeff Luhnow, and Jed Hoyer? Hoyer and the Cubs have already picked up Craig Kimbrel and it only cost $$$. Epstein and Hoyer say they are still looking for more relievers, as is Luhnow. Cashman needs starting pitching, but he knows that his relievers will be ready to go come playoffs, including Dellin Betances (who should return in August) and a quickly improving Chad Green.
I know that Sean Doolittle, Blake Treinen, and Lou Trivino are having off years, but I would be happy with any of them. This year, I might be happier with Liam Hendricks also with Oakland. In order to improve, you sometimes need to take that proverbial chance, which is why Ken Giles would be way up my watch list. There are no guarantees. Take the chance on players who have been there before. I think most fans were happy with AF and the Machado, Darvish, and Hill trades. But even Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani were big question marks, especially Cingrani.
I am not naïve. I agree there is very little chance that the Dodgers will trade for two elite relievers. But if they do not get one, then I will once again question AF’s valuation of relievers. Another myth I want to disspell is that if you disagree with AF then you obviously consider him the anti-Christ. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is easy to always be right when everyone agrees with you. I do not want “yes men” working with me. I assume that AF is the same way. Because I disagree with his valuation of relievers does not make me anti AF. It also does not make me right.
Mark may point that it is perhaps Houston’s pitching gurus that make the pitchers dominant. Or maybe it is the pitchers themselves. Regardless if it is the talent or the coaching, AF is responsible for both. Go out and get elite relievers or hire better pitching coaches. Either scenario is in the hands of AF.
The one glaring weakness on this team is the bullpen. AF needs to try and bridge that weakness. Will he be able to with a trade for an elite reliever or will he try to stay within the organization. I think Mark would prefer to let the team stay status quo with trying someone like Tony Gonsolin. Me, in the playoffs, I want a proven reliever that will deliver, not a prospect. Next year considering that both Hill and Ryu may leave, that would leave the 5 man rotation in the hands of Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Maeda, and Stripling. I hope the Dodgers strongly consider Ryu for a 2-3 year contract. Ryu is comfortable in a Dodgers uniform. Maybe Tony Gonsolin or Dennis Santana or Mitchell White will be ready to try to claim the #4/#5 spot in the rotation. But after those two, come Dustin May, Edwin Uceta, Michael Grove, Josiah Gray, John Rooney, and Robinson Ortiz. There are several others who may develop (Braydon Fisher, Gerardo Carrillo, Zach Willeman…). They cannot all make the Dodgers rotation. Make out your untouchable list and then work to get the best deal with one or two of the others. For me, Tony Gonsolin (AAA), Dustin May (AA), and Josiah Gray (A+) are the untouchable pitchers. Gavin Lux is the untouchable position player. If the Dodgers did not have both Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz, they would be untouchable. But since they have both, one of them could be traded in the right scenario.
Anyone who follows the minor leagues as closely and as much as I do will have a hard time trading personal favorites. But if it improves the ML team, I am in favor of spending the necessary player capital to get the top bullpen pieces. I know that they all cannot and/or will not make the Dodgers ML roster. The organization has a lot of teams because most of the MiLB players are blocked. They have two DSL and two AZL teams, and a lot more in extended ST that continue to be held back. Any trade of prospects will be met with animosity by some. That is a given.
So will AF spend the capital to improve the bullpen with proven elite relievers, or will he punt and stay within the organization and try to find lightning in a bottle?
MINOR LEAGUE REPORT by AC
OKC Dodgers 7 – Memphis Redbirds 14 (Cardinals)
Five pitchers took the mound for the Dodgers, and not one got the job done. Starting pitcher, Brock Steward, and Shea Spitzbarth were tagged the hardest. The five-some allowed 14 runs on 18 hits, and 5 HR’s, three by Spitzbarth in 0.2 IP.
When you score 7 runs, you should win most of the time. The Dodgers scored 7 runs on 11 hits with only 2 XBH, both provided by Will D. Smith. Smith slugged his 14th HR and collected his 11th double. Connor Joe had three hits, while Zach Reks, the aforementioned Will D. Smith, and Cameron Perkins each had 2 hits.
Tulsa Drillers 3 – Amarillo Sod Poodles 4 (Padres)
There was not much action in this game. The Drillers pushed across 3 runs on 4 singles and a Chris Parmalee HR (9). Gavin Lux still remains atop the league leaders in several offensive categories. Isn’t it time for him to get a taste of AAA? (Side Editorial).
The pitching was not the problem that it was in AAA, although the four pitchers did cough up 3 gopher balls. Victor Gonzalez started and pitched relatively well for 5.0 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk, with 4 Ks, and one of the three HRs. Michael Boyle and Ryan Moseley pitched the next 3.0 innings each allowing a solo HR, while Edward Paredes pitched a clean 9th.
RC Quakes 7 – Lancaster JetHawks 13 (Colorado)
This game started bad in the 2nd inning and went downhill from there. In the bottom of the 2nd, starter Michael Grove continued his struggles. He allowed a lead off HR, followed by a single, WP, strikeout, single, double, walk single, walk, strikeout before his night came to an end. Austin Drury came on in relief and walked the first batter he faced to give the JetHawks their 5 runs. Grove’s ERA is now up to 8.10.
The Quakes got three back in the 3rd thanks largely to a Donovan Casey HR (the first of 2 on the night). Casey now has 11 on the campaign. But the JetHawks scored 4 more in the 4th to open up a 6-run lead 9-3. Often times in Lancaster, a 6-run lead may not be enough, but it was last night. The JetHawks scored three unearned runs off Drury in 2.0 IP, and Will Montgomery finished the final 4.1 surrendering the final 5 runs.
Besides Casey’s two HRs, Devin Mann went 3-4 including his 13th HR and 2 doubles (15).
Great Lakes Loons 6 – Fort Wayne TinCaps 3 (Padres)
The Loons used two pitchers in their win. Stephen Kolek started and went 5.0 innings allowing 3 runs on 4 hits 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts for his 5th win. Justin Hagenman pitched the final 4.0 innings in scoreless fashion, allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk to go with his 4 Ks. In 16 games and 37 IP, Hagenman now sports a 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, a .180 BAA, and only 1 HR. But he is 22 in an A league and needs to move up to stiffer competition at RC before we can determine of Justin is a legit relief prospect.
After three innings, the Loons found themselves down by 3. In prior years, that may have triggered a loss, but not this year. The Loons scored 1 in the 3rd to come within 2, and then scored a big 4 runs in the 4th to take the lead. Dillon Paulson (USC) and Jair Camargo started the inning with singles. Luke Heyer doubled to bring home Paulson, followed by a James Outman single that scored Camargo. An errant pick off throw scored Heyer, and Leonel Valera singled to plate Outman for the 4th run. The Loons scored another in the 5th for the 6-3 lead they never relinquished.
The Loons had 11 hits including three doubles; Outman (6), Heyer (5) and Camargo (10). Paulson, Camargo, and Outman had 2 this apiece. The only Loon without a hit was recently promoted (06/19) Josh McLain.
Ogden Raptors 11 – Orem Owlz 6 (LAA)
The Raptors scored 11 runs without the benefit of an XBH. The used 13 hits and 7 walks to score their 11 runs. Sam McWilliams and Andrew Shaps led the singles parade with 3 each, while Zac Ching and Ramon Rodriguez had 2. Leadoff hitter, Jeremy Arocho, had three walks.
Elio Serrano (3.1 IP), Melvin Jimenez (1.2 IP), and Nelfri Contreras (1.2 IP) surrendered the 6 runs on 13 hits and 3 walks. Only 20-year-old RHP Edward Cuello (2.1 IP) pitched effectively. Cuello only allowed a walk in his evening’s work and got his first save as a reward. It is hard to put up good pitching numbers in the Pioneer League, which is more of a launching pad than is the California League.
AZL Dodgers Mota 7 – AZL Indians Red 6
I generally follow the AA team because of Gavin Lux, Omar Estevez, et al. because of all the potential ML talent on the Drillers’ roster. But last night I was more interested in a Rookie League game. Two of the three biggest prizes in last year’s international group, catcher Diego Cartaya and SS Alex De Jesus made their US debuts, and DID NOT DISAPPOINT. Both players went 2-3 with De Jesus getting his first double and first HR. Cartaya also picked off a runner at 2B to top off his debut. Ismael Alcantara also had 2 hits, while Kevin Aponte hit his 1st HR.
Yaisel Sierra continued his rehab assignment and started, pitching a perfect 1.0 inning. Michael was the most effective of the next three Mota pitchers and got the win. He did go 4.1 innings, allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks. He did register 8 Ks. Carlos Alejo finished the final 1.2 innings and got his 1st save.
AZL Dodgers Lasorda 5 – AZL Brewers Gold 6
This AZL team did not fare as well as the Motas. The Lasordas strung together 11 singles to go with 6 walks for their 5 runs. They did strike out 16 times and hit 2-14 WRISP. Edwin Mateo, Aldo Espinoza, Yhostin Chirinos, and Julio Carrion each had 2 hits.
Logan Bawcom started in his rehab outing and went the first 5.0 innings. 2 runs on 5 hits, 0 walks, and 8 strikeouts was Bawcom’s pitching line. Jose Rodulfo finished up but allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th to give the Brewers the victory.
DSL Dodgers Bautista 11 – DSL Marlins 4
The Bautistas unleased a 16 hit attack. Every Bautista batter had at least 1 hit with 6 batters having 2. Kiumel Bastardo went 2-3 and is now batting .429. Jose Ramos went 2-5 with his 2nd HR. Luis Yan went 2-6 with 3 RBIs. Luis Morales went 2-5 with 2 doubles (3), Carlos Santiago went 2-6 with his 3rd HR. And Alejandro Fernandez went 2-5 with his 1st double. Four pitchers went to the mound with Andrew Budier going 2.1 innings in relief and picking up the win. Abel Moya started and pitched 4.0 allowing all 4 runs (3 earned). Hendrick Briones and Raidel Chacon pitched the final 1.2 scoreless innings.
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 8 – DSL Red Sox 1
The Shoemakers scored 8 runs on 5 hits and 8 walks. Vladimir Perez did hit his 3rd double. Five pitchers went to the bump for the Shoemakers with Eli Moron going 3.2 scoreless innings. He allowed 1 hit and 1 walk to go with 3 Ks. Moron is now 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 IP.
I got 4 Things:
1. Who needs a bullpen? 😉
2. His name is Striker, not Walker.
3. Matt Beaty has 18 hits and 11 RBI – the Dude is Clutch!
4. Boston’s bullpen wasn’t good last year… until it was.
Who says pitchers cant trow complete games anymore ? Just let them pitch more 100- 120 Pitches, with this bullpen teams needs more games like this.
Most believe the Dodgers will get to the playoffs without any changes to the team. My question then is will Maeda be the elite reliever the Dodgers need for the playoffs?
If Maeda is one of the two key playoff relievers needed to be added to the bullpen, is a lefty needed to be the other? If so, is that pitcher Hand?
Yesterday I said the Dodgers are deep enough at catcher that Ruiz could be included in a trade for a key reliever, Hand. If Cleveland wants to stay in the wildcard competition then maybe they will need a reliever from the Dodgers to replace some of what they lose from Hand. Ruiz and Floro and Alexander?
Jansen, Hand, Baez, Maeda, Stripling, plus 4
Maeda is not elite no matter where he pitches.
He is terrible in Bullpen even worst than starter. Maeda is a Serviceable Pitcher but in Second half his tank is gone. Not enough gas for full season !!!! Good 5th Starter that can dominate at times but at best average and 5, 6 inning pitcher the most. You said it not elite at all.
Maeda has a 3.10 ERA as a Reliever.
3.98 ERA as a Starter.
Do the math!
Right, not elite.
For those who might remember the TV show, Bat Masterson;
Oh when a game needs to be won,
There is a man named Matt Beaty, son,
He wears a jersey with an LA cap,
They call him. Matt,
Matt Beaty, son
I love guys like Beaty, Garlick, Reks. They aren’t supposed to make it. Hope Reks gets his chance soon.
I wrote this re: Beaty back in 2015. https://www.thinkbluela.com/2015/07/matt-beaty-heating-up-with-the-great-lakes-loons/
When did Beaty become a left-handed hitter? The above article says he was right-handed in 2015.
Why can’t today’s relievers pitch more than just an inning or two? Clem Labine made a emergency start in the World Series & pitched a shutout!
The same reason that why we do not see games like the July 2, 1963 game pitched by Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal. They both pitched 15 innings of shutout baseball. Marichal got the Braves out in order in the 16th but Willie Mays hit a one out HR in the bottom of the 16 to bear Spahn and the Braves 1-0.
The same reason why we do not see pitchers pitching 300+ innings or 30+ complete games anymore. The game has changed, and for some of us not always for the better.
Thanks for reading the article. The right-handed was the fault of the keyboard which nobody before picked up.
I totally agree with AC. Alexander and Floro both have options and both are horrible against lefties this year. We can easily include one or both in trades and any of the pitchers that AC mentioned.
As far as K Bear goes, that is a tricky one. Teams would line up to trade a closer for a top catching prospect, ala the Indians and the Brad Hand trade. Similarly, a closer alone should not get the deal done as the market has been set by that trade.
Yimi is another that can possibly be included in a deal, since he is controllable and looks like he could eventually be a high leverage reliever.
Mark also has a point. Yimi, Baez, Kelly all have the stuff to be high leverage guys. They all have the stuff to bridge the gap to Kenley. Kenley may have more left in him. Maeda might be good in the pen like he was in 2017, or he might be bad like he was last year. When the season started, I thought this pen would be lights out. But, I was wrong. We absolutely need Kenley “Insurance”. He is no longer the guy that can consistently pitch more than an inning for a save. We need to be able to slam the door after 6 or 7 innings instead of walking the tight rope.
I’m also with you on Ryu and would sign him up for another 3 year deal right right now. He’s our David Wells!
Musher, that’s cool!! I like it…
Every night someone different… Who is this kid??? Don’t ask, just believe!!!
I’ve noticed even the attitude change at Philippes… Fans are quietly arrogant and yes, there may be a parade in Downtown Los Angeles this October…
Watching Walker do his thing made me flashback to Sandy and Kersh prime time…
I hope we don’t punt, but I have faith in AF to do what it takes…
I still think Verdugo’s coiffure must go!!!
Very nice post A C, I agree with everything you wrote. I think Friedman is doing an amazing job but I do find his handling of the bullpen his big weakness and I hope he takes the steps in the coming weeks to address the Dodgers biggest need.
Minor League Report Update above. There are now 9 minor league affiliates to keep track of and comment on.
Do the Dodgers really have a guy named Eli Moron in their farm system? Isn’t Moron the guy that posts a lot on this blog and MT keeps arguing with? 😉
Yes there is an Eli Moron in the farm system. I was going to try and connect young Eli to one of MT’s posts, but …
AC, I want to tell you everything you were wrong about in your post
(Long blank space)
OK, now that we’ve taken care of that, here’s a link to a great article on Ryu from The Ringer.
We have someone special. Let’s try to extend him, in spite of the injury risk and the fact that Boras is his agent. He’s comfortable here and I think he would love to come back.
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/21/18700269/los-angeles-dodgers-hyun-jin-ryu-ace-clayton-kershaw
AC, is there any scenario you see that will bring an elite reliever like Hand using Pollock as a trade chip? I don’t think there is any question that the Dodgers can get by without him.
I cannot see the Dodgers trading Pollock.
Why would they trade someone when their value is lowest?
Fully agree with AC,
The Dodgers have 2 options, improve the bullpen internally or get some by the trade deadline. If they go internally, they can’t wait until September like they did with Buehler a couple of years ago. He didn’t work out and there is no reason to think that someone else might do better.
Since they have not promoted some of the more notable names by now, I think it’s safe to say the Dodgers will trade for a piece or two before the end of July. Hopefully it is a meaningful name as we all have the same thought; do you feel comfortable with a playoff game on the line with a one run lead with Jansen.
The other issue is who are our 4 starters in the playoffs? FYI, Buehler and Kershaw are locks. That leaves Hill and Urias. Hill could go to the pen but he seems to need an inning or two before he’s locked in. I also seem to recall that he his better as the game goes on.
That leaves Urias. Are we better served with him starting or not. He was quite good the other night. As a reliever he seems to also take an inning to really get in a groove. But if he is a bullpen piece, why not just use him as such going forward? It would save his pitch count for this year.
As for Sean Doolittle, I doubt he is traded. The Nats are one game under .500. Even if the lose the next 2 games against Atlanta they would be only 3 under while playing Miami, KC and Detroit all before the all star game. They will clearly be over .500 at that point so they will be buyers not sellers.
What about Ryu in the postseason?
Weird spell check. It was supposed to read Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw and not
FYI, Buehler and Kershaw. Sorry for the confusion.
By the way, I would use the pitching staff in that order. What do you all think?
If we have home field (and I’m sure we will), I’d start Ryu in Game 2, meaning he’s back for Game 6. Both games at Dodger Stadium, where he is absolutely filthy!
One other starter…Hyun-jin Ryu.
And no I do not feel comfortable with a one-run lead and Jansen on the bump.
I agree with you on Doolittle, but he is a possibility if the Nats begin to suck again. With Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin, the Nats are the one team I would fear. But not this year.
The problem is the Nats should be above .500 by the all star break. They will most likely follow last years plan, thinking that they have a shot. They should have traded Harper last year but didn’t (and would have been far better off if they had traded him to the Dodgers for Phil, who they could have flipped during the off season). I believe they will make the same mistake this year.
Mark may absolutely be right and Yimi, Petey, and Machine Gun Kelly may all turn out to be good high leverage 8th inning guys. I hope they do. But when facing the NYY or Houston lineups in a shut down scenario, would you rather have one of those three or Brad Hand, Shane Greene, Felipe Vazquez, Sean Doolittle, or other proven high leverage relievers. Why not have Yimi, Pedro, and Kelly pitch in a more less stressful situation. That makes the bullpen even deeper.
I am fine with every one of the current relievers for a 162-game season. I just want two elite relievers (three if possible) to back up the outstanding starters the Dodgers have compiled. I know I am greedy Waiting 31 years has made me that guy.
This is not a criticism of the current Dodgers. How can you criticize a team that is 11.0 games up on your nearest rival in your division and also be up 7.5 games on the Braves and 10.0 games on the Cubs. They are on a 109+ game pace and we are 4 games shy of the actual halfway point. They have a 2.0 game advantage over the Twins and 3.0 games over NYY and 4 games over Houston. There is absolutely noting to complain about for the regular season. But this is all about October.
One other point. Someone asked yesterday (Bobby?) who I preferred…Garlick or Beaty. It was actually an easy decision for me, and had nothing to do with last night. I have been a Matt Beaty fan since the Dodgers drafted him in the 12th round of the 2015 draft. It is the Matt Beaty’s that make Billy Gasparino into the star talent evaluator he is. He was the Texas League POY in 2017. Matt is a high contact and decent power hitter. He does need a position which is why he will be platooned at 1B or LF. We have to remember, Beaty was primarily a college catcher when he was drafted. But he is a ML hitter that seemingly has ice running through his veins. I like Kyle Garlick and hope he sticks. He is a good RH bench bat that the Dodgers can exploit. But if I had to pick one (which thankfully I do not), I would pick Beaty.
I think it’s probably a foregone conclusion that the NL will have the DH within the next 2-3 years. That will be the perfect spot for Beaty. Someone asked him what his best position was the other day and he replied “the left hand hitter’s batter’s box.”
I’m convinced that AF will bring in an elite reliever in July. If he had any doubt, Kenley has helped him decide. This is the scenario non-playoff teams live for. They can move their elite relievers for future building blocks and not worry that they are trading a piece they need in the near future.
That response to his best position is priceless (and probably true). He is the newest Dodger junk yard dog. He reminds me a lot of the early 90’s Long Beach State Dirt Bags. Dave Snow would absolutely love this guy.
The team could definitely use a high leverage arm in the ‘pen. It could still be Kelly, but that doesn’t look like a road I would trust.
I think the team knows the value of such an arm. Defining one that is not a short term one is the question. Didn’t the Dodgers pursue Andrew Miller and actually trade for Chapman before (thankfully and admirably) morals got in their way?
My point is that I do think the front office sees value in having another impact arm to defuse high leverage situations, but there is tremendous variance in reliever arms. Joe Kelly. Morrow. The fact that Yates was on waivers and Colume decidedly mediocre for intermittent years.
It’s one thing to pick up an elite reliever to become a post season contender but an entirely different scenario to pick one up to become a prohibitive WS favorite. Again I reference the Cubs in 16 with Chapman. I really feel we’re one elite closer away from winning a championship. I just don’t think Kenley is that guy any longer. I wouldn’t trade Lux, Gonzo or May but everyone else is in play including Ruiz. First choose would be Hand Because he’s not just a rental and if not Smith. I think Farhan would be content with a group of less than our top 5 prospects to build up Giants prospect depth. If Hill comes back strong then Urias and Maeda go to pen in October. Maeda’S stuff plays up in pen. He was throwing 94-95 in 17 and was fabulous in post season. Not as good as last year but still a nice piece. A pen of Smith, Janson, Baez, Urias, Maeda and Kelly would get it done. It will go against ever fiber of his being for AF to spend big on a reliever at the deadline but I think it’s the missing piece. And if he totally lost his mind why not get Greene from Tigers as well!
I somewhat agree that Farhan would be very fair in a trade for a rental like Smith. While the fans may not want to help the Dodgers in any way, Farhan would only think to help the Giants. Everybody who has read me over the last several years, knows that I am a huge Omar Estevez fan. But with his doubles ability, he would be a natural in that ballyard. I would think he could headline the return. There would be others, but Farhan knows Estevez and Oracle fits his game. They have no replacement for Panik or any emergency SS. The Dodgers have enough pitching (non top of the line) to supplement Estevez.
I don’t think it’s a matter of Farhan’s being fair in a trade, I think he’ll get the best deal he can get. If the market for Smith is crazy, he won’t have to be fair. On the other hand I’m sure he won’t try and stick it to AF just because it’s the Dodgers.
Farhan has intimate knowledge of our farm system so he might very well prefer to deal with us and Estevez would be a good piece for him to include, for the reasons you mentioned.
It may be that Farhan is purposely waiting to deal Smith until closer to the deadline, assuming that the market will heat up closer to the end of July, but I’m hoping Friedman is trying to do a deal for Smith now because many of the better relievers are pitching for teams still very much in the wildcard race and that might result in fewer guys being available than we first thought.
I do think we need one elite reliever. I think there is something happening. Honeycutt is trying to get Jansen and Kelly to throw a slider. Neither one has the confidence yet to throw it on a regular basis. I have seen both throw the slider and both have a good one. Jansen in a tight situation shakes the catcher off. I think they are calling for the slider. Jansen is stubborn. I think Jansen, Kelly, and Baez are going to be very good come this fall. Jansen getting knocked around may be very good for him. It may make him change.
I thought Beaty and Garlick were just up for a cup of coffe. They are better than I thought. Smith came up and did a good job. Some very interesting decisions to be made when Pollock and Seager come back.
Verdugo is a team player. When there is a runner on third, he will hit the SF to drive in a run.
Moving Joc to first to platoon with Freese will give us the best possible line up. If it works out. If not Beatty can play first.
Let’s get it done!
I am thrilled for Beaty and Garlick. They seem like solid players, hit well and good guys to have in your clubhouse. Keep them coming up. I am anxious to see how Lux and others will do. So far, a good showing for the minor league boys.
Agree. They’ve fought hard to get up here later in their careers. They will continue to work hard as good role players.
And, from a team perspective, they’re cheap contracts who can contribute!
We have 2 dominate starting pitchers in Ryu and Buehler and a veteran that is still good in Kershaw. Where is that 4th starting pitcher for the playoffs? We’ll have to wait and see. Hill or Urias?
The offense is set period.
Bullpen: Baez I trust, Jansen somewhat trust, Urias somewhat trust but could be our 4th starter for the playoffs. At this point stat wise the rest of the bullpen has issues and I can point out weaknesses stat wise for the rest of the bullpen.
In the minors as far as pitching is concerned and again stat wise the only one with a decent amount of innings pitched that looks good stat wise is Marshall Kasowski 24.1 innings pitched 41 strikeouts which computes to 15.2 strikeouts per 9 innings and no home runs allowed with a 1.15 WHIP. I’d like to see him get called up to see what he has in the big league.
Buehler was magnificent last night. This team is good. Bullpen is the only issue in my opinion.
I’m an OPS guy both for offense and for pitching. I still favor getting Holland and Giles because not only are they both having a good season but unlike Hand they both have career OPS stats to back up their performance this season.
Holland 2019 OPS 571 Career OPS 597
Giles 2019 OPS 550 Career OPS 608
As for Hand and Doolittle and others that might be traded. Hand is having a good season but his career OPS (678) is no better than several of our own relievers career OPS. Doolittle is opposite of Hand, Doolittle is struggling this season with an OPS above 700 but a career OPS 559. A lot of others that might be traded have similar stats as Hand and Doolittle.
As far as what I would trade in prospects? Well on the current top 30 ranking list of Dodger prospects. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=la
Anyone #6 and below except Kasowski and Beaty.
I still think we missed out on Kimbrel, 3 years 48 million total would have beat the Cubs offer. We gave Jansen 5 years 80 million total and Kimbrel is no doubt better than Jansen.
Depending upon the pitcher Friedman goes after, you had better be prepared to lose Kasowski, Beaty or both. In order to get an elite bullpen guy, I think Andrew would include either of those guys if he had to. I’ve been watching Kasowski for quite awhile now. He’s a real strike out machine but his fastball is really his only excellent pitch and he tends to walk too many. That said, I’d love to see him up here if we still have him next year, just to see how he does.
No offense to either Beaty or Kawoski or their families, but if that’s the cost for an impact reliever, I will drive these 2 dudes to LAX myself, and stop off at the In n Out by the airport and buy them their last meals in LA!!
I suggest you up your offer to something like Mastro’s, Fleming’s, BOA, Ruth’s Chris, etc. Bobby. As good as In ‘n’ Out burgers are, if that’s all those two guys are worth, they probably won’t get the deal done.
My fave steakhouse out here is Carlitos Gardel. Amazing Argentinian steakhouse
The flaw in looking at career OPS for relievers is that Brad Hand has only been a full time reliever since 2016. Since the conversion, Hand has been as good a reliever as there is. His OPS numbers should be discounted while he was a starter. There is no question that Brad Hand was not a good starting pitcher.
2016 – .589 OPS
2017 – .580 OPS
2018 – .656 OPS
2019 – .461 OPS
For Greg Holland the career numbers take into account his time with KC where he was admittedly unhittable. But since then…
2015 – .692
2016 – Did Not Play
2017 – .623
2018 – .697
2019 – .571
For Ken Giles, who do you get, the Philadelphia and Toronto reliever or the Houston reliever? Is Giles a clutch reliever or one who melts down with stress in the march to the playoffs and the playoffs themselves.
2014 (Phil) – .450
2015 (Phil) – .569
2016 (Hou) – .709
2017 (Hou) – .566
2018 (Hou/Tor) – .722
2019 (Tor) – .550
I like all three relievers and would welcome any of them on the Dodgers. I do not disagree with your OPS assessment as an indicator. But I am more inclined to look into the numbers before making judgment, and I am more interested in what they have done recently. For this year, I am hoping for that 1 or 2 elite relievers that can help this year.
Plus since returning from TJ surgery in 2018, Will Smith’s OPS numbers have been.
2018 – .533
2019 – .500
I would not be looking for anything more than this year from Smith. He has been outstanding this year, and that should continue once he gets traded.
My other guess is that AF and his crew are looking at much more than opposing OPS.
OPS is 1 dimensional. AF is 3 or 12 dimensional.
Nothing but vague arguments from you AC. Why don’t you back up your argument with some stats. 🙂
AC doesn’t like numbers. Besides 5 out of 4 people struggle with math…
Today’s lineup vs. someone named Lambert:
Joc
Verdugo
JT
Belly
Muncy
CT3
Beaty
Martin
Ryu
I knew Peter Lambert from youth AAU baseball. He had a heavy two seamer back then.
Mark…..You nicknamed him so right…….Striker Buehler.
A caller on DodgerTalk last night suggested “Striker” as a nickname for Buehler, and Vassegh just laughed it off.
On another note, personally I was disappointed to find out that Muncy’s real first name is Maxwell rather than something more exotic like Maximilian.
I’m in Chi-Town Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday this week:
https://www.irce.com/exhibitions/about-irce
Too bad it’s those days and not later in the week.
Maximus
I am all for another a reliever or two. There are two problems:
(1) You don’t always get the guy you traded for (i.e. Jim Johnson with a 2.25 ERA become Jim Johnson with a10.17 ERA); and
(2) You may give up a potential star (i.e., Josh Fields for Yordon Alvarez).
At first blush, I love the sound of Smith for Estevez. But Estevez is one of those guys who end up being really good and we have to face him for 6 years. AND… can Smith pitch in LA? What about Hand? He has pitched in SD and Cleveland – pretty mellow places.
I would not touch Giles with a 10-foot pole, but Greg Holland may be the best of the bunch, but he’s far from a sure thing and the guy you trade may be someone you see 20 times a year and regret it.
At any rate, I don’t see much happening until the deadline. I guess I would pick Hand, and the trade scenario I talked about was what it would take to get him now. If the Indians fall out of contention then the price will drop. I would not include Smith or Ruiz, but if you forced me to trade one, it would be Smith. Ruiz’s ceiling is sooooooo much higher.
I would trade Estevez to the AL however. Estevez, Kasowski and Willeman might get it done if Cleveland falls out of the race. If Cleveland falls out, they will likely trade Hand, Bauer and Kluber (if healthy)… maybe Lindor and Ramirez… and Santana to rebuild.
One other point that needs consideration is while I am a huge fan of Omar Estevez, he is not a better prospect than Gavin Lux. With Lux projected at 2B, Seager at SS, that leaves Omar without a position other than utility. If you can trade Omar and get a player who can help put you over the top, you cannot think about what Omar will do against you in future years.
Nobody knew what type of player Yordan Alvarez would turn into. I do not see that as any evidence to not try to improve your own team.
The thing that gives me pause in trading Estevez is that he is a RH hitter in a system that is full of LH hitters (Reks, Beaty, Lux, Pederson, Rios, Muncy, Bellinger, Seager, et al.) Of course, Downs and Vargas as also RH. I do see a lot of projectability with Estevez. It typically takes Cubans longer (getting acclimated to a new country, language, and culture), but Estevez is arguably putting up as impressive stats as Lux… minus the power… but I think he’s a 10-15 HR guy in the future.
I know that all these prospects won’t pan out, but the more you keep, the better your chances. I just want to see prospects traded as the LAST OPTION.
Anyone know why our second first rounder Michael Busch hasn’t signed yet ? Is he considering going back to NC or leveraging the Dodgers for more cash? Also any thoughts if Jimmy Lewis will sign? If both of these guys sign it would be one helluva of a draft.
I hear Busch is asking more money than his slot allows, but I think he will sign… at the last minute.
I have no clue about Lewis.
The Dodger infield defense is killing Ryu.
Dodgers 23rd turning dps Colorado 2nd
That simply means that Colorado has more opportunities because they allow a whole lot more runners.
Suddenly the Dodgers can’t play d behind ryu. This is where we really need seager. Another area for improvement turning the dip. We just don’t seem to ever turn the dp.
If Pederson is going to play 1B, there are going to be growing pains. They just have to weather the storm.
First base is not as simple a position as some people think. Most of us on this site understand that it’s more than just catching the ball. The more reps that Pederson gets, the more instinctive the position will become. I’m actually encouraged by the throws he’s made to 2nd. Mark is right, Pederson and the Dodgers just have to weather the storm, which becomes easier with a double digit lead in the standings.
And that ladies and gentlemen was Furgeson’s curve ball! Now you know why he’s a one pitch pitcher!
Doc always getting punished when he makes unnecessary pitching changes. Slow freaking learner.
right or wrong (and I think wrong), but this is another reason we need an impact reliever. Doc will use 5-6 pitchers per playoff game, so the back end of the pen better be really really strong!
On an 0-2 count… painful
It’s not Roberts fault we have a crummy bullpen 59
Yimi looked just fine striking out the only batter he faced.
Not sure how good Tulsa’s opponent tonight is, but Dustin May so far: 7ip, 2 hits, 0 runs, 14k, 0 walks.
He’s trying to out do Walker Buehler!
Wow! Can’t wait to see him with the big club.
3 Things:
1. Caleb Ferguson has not had control of his curve THIS year, but he did LAST year and I think he will get it back. He does not need another pitch. He just needs to get the feel of his curve back.
2. Ryu did not have his stuff tonight. I have no problem with taking him out. Second guessers are never wrong.
3. The Dodgers pen is TOP 10… hardly crummy! We would all like it to be better….
He had a 100 tough pitches through 6. It was time to take him out.
Damn, Beaty sure is money when it matters!
Would you trade Beaty for Hand? Anybody?
Our bullpen is like Ikea living room furniture. It might look good for a while. But, it never feels quite right and it’s likely to break at the worst time.
As Vin would say, “and look who’s comin up!!”
And that’s the reason Barnes can’t be on the October roster!!!!!!!
Did anyone say that Alex Verdugo doesn’t have power?
Verdugo has 7 HRs in 221 AB. That works out to about 20 in 600 ABs. If he plays everyday, and continues to gain experience and confidence, he should only get better. Add to that a gain in physical strength as he continues to mature, and as I’ve said before, I see a player capable of hitting 20-25 per year, and maybe more.
This offense is awesome. If the pitching will give them a chance they will produce.
Enough said.
This may be a good team.
I think.
Cassidy and his one liners seemingly right out of a Think Point…
Orrrr, maybe he’s a citizen of one of two states that decriminalized magic mushrooms!?!
I never thought I would find someone who could talk more than Orel does, lol. Poor Joe Davis, at times, hardly got a call of the game in.
A kind of a sloppy defensive game for the Dodgers but glad they came through in the end. Thought Kelly did well other than the walk. Question? How come an error was not charged to Taylor when he clearly had the ball ahead of the runner and should have made the out, but dropped it plus missing the base? The run scored and was charged to Ryu along with maybe 2 others that should have been outs. Just wondered.
Well I think point some reasons why the Dodgers might not win a WS
I do not understand. The Dodgers just got a great comeback walk off win with two rookies leading the way. Why are we talking about reasons the Dodgers cannot win the WS after game 78, with the best record in MLB? They are on a pace to win 110 games. Just how many are they expected to win? Even with their bullpen. They are 12.0 games up in the NL West, 7.5 games better than Atlanta and 11.0 games better than Cubs. Let’s enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.
It’s a test AC!!!
I remember a time when Cleveland said they were open to trading Corey Kluber to the Dodgers. They wanted Bellinger, but when the Dodgers refused, they were apparently willing to settle for Alex Verdugo.
It would have been nice to have Kluber, but the Dodgers starting pitching is already pretty good and I’m also glad the Dodgers still have both Bellinger and Verdugo.