Most teams realize that the best and least cost approach to building a perennial winner is through draft and development. With a little more than 3 weeks before the June Amateur Draft, teams are very busy looking at who the next Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, or Aaron Judge may be. If it were an exact science all three would have been the overall #1 pick and yet they were not. Kershaw was the closest at #7 overall, but Trout went #25 overall and Judge went #32 overall.
10 years ago, the Angels selected Mike Trout in the 1st round. He was considered a very good high school hitter, but nobody expected Trout to become the player he is today. 24 teams thought someone else was better. In about 2 ½ minor league seasons, Trout hit a combined 23 HR’s. He hit 30 in his rookie 2012 season at the ripe old age of 20.
The reason I bring up Mike Trout is because the Dodgers select #25 this year. Can lightning strike twice in ten-year increments? Highly unlikely since this is considered a weak draft in general. There is no Casey Mize this year. Mize was considered an absolute can’t miss last year, and he has not disappointed the Tigers. The next Justin Verlander for Detroit? He certainly has a great shot at it.
The first 6 teams are looking for bats because there is no sure thing pitcher this year. This year the consensus overall #1 pick is Oregon State catcher Audley Rutschman, this year’s Joey Bart. While considered the best prospect in this group, the draft pundits are not convinced that the Orioles will select Rutschman and may instead select Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn because he may sign for less. But if the general consensus of the pundits is correct, the first three picks will be:
Orioles – Audley Rutschman, Catcher – Oregon State
KC Royals – Bobby Witt Jr., SS – High School (Texas)
White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B – CalThe best pitcher considered in this draft seems locked in for the Reds at #7. The Reds covet college pitchers and TCU LHP Nick Lodolo seems to be their target. West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah would also be a consideration here. Other top college pitchers include Jackson Rutledge RHP, San Jacinto JC, and Kentucky LHP, Zack Thompson. The top high school pitcher seems to settle on RHP Matt Allan who many believe the Giants covet. There are other high school pitchers that will be considered, but most have top college programs they are committed to, and teams may not be willing to spend that level of bonus dollars on good but probably not elite high school pitchers. One of the best high school pitchers but probably will not be signable is RHP Jack Leiter (yeah from that Leiter family), but he is committed to Vandy and is considered unsignable. Maybe with all of the bonus pool dollars, the DBacks take a chance.
The DBacks have 7 of the first 75 picks, so they could get well quickly. Their bonus pool is at $16,093,700 so they have the dollars to spend. The Dodgers select #25 overall, #31, #78, and #102, and have half the bonus pool the DBacks have at $8,069,100.Since a team can exceed the bonus pool allocation by 5% without penalty, the budget will settle at $8,472,000.
Just as in prior years, the Dodgers targets or draft strategy is not well known, and draft pundits are all over the board on who the Dodgers might select at #25 and #31. Three years ago, the pick (#20 overall) was projected to be a HS SS. There were five to choose from, Gavin Lux, Delvin Perez, Hudson Potts, Carter Kieboom, and my favorite Bo Bichette. I was disappointed that the Dodgers selected Lux over Bichette. While I still believe that Bichette has the higher floor and ceiling, Lux is turning out to be a very good pick. Kieboom has appeared with the ML Nationals, and Bichette is at AAA waiting to join his uber prospect teammate Vlad Jr. in Toronto. Potts is at AA with Lux, and Perez is struggling a bit at the start of his career and is playing in the Midwest League (A).
Two years ago, the consensus was that the Dodgers would select a CF. They were keying on Alabama prep CF Bubba Thompson, but when Jeren Kendall fell, the Dodgers selected him instead. Kendall, who is currently on the IL, has MLB defense at the GG level and MLB speed, but a high school bat. There are rumblings that he is not taking to coaching as well as the organization had hoped, and he is still a swing and miss type hitter. I have said it before, the Dodgers need to hire Brett Butler to be Kendall’s baseball mentor. He could be a perennial AS if he were to make contact. But the HR is in his blood, and he lusts for that power.
Last year, nobody knew what the Dodgers were looking at, and they selected a HS pitcher as the best prospect available at that slot. They could not come to an agreement and JT Ginn did not sign and instead honored his commitment to Mississippi State, and is pitching very well. He is settling in at #2 in the MSU rotation. The Dodgers may get another shot at Ginn next year as he will be a Sophomore eligible college player.
So who do some think the Dodgers may select? There is not one mock draft that I have seen that shows the Dodgers selecting the same player in more than one.
Potential Hitters:
Brett Baty – 3B – HS – Perhaps top prep power hitter. Problem is that he will be 19 ½ at the draft and while he would be a Top 15 pick were he 18, many teams will back off because of his age, so he could fall to the Dodgers.
Keoni Cavaco – 3B – HS – Late bloomer. Not on anybody’s radar until this Spring. He will probably be under slot pick but has high potential. It is a risk pick that could work or flame out. Sounds like a Dodger gamble, but maybe at 31 if he lasts that long.
Gunnar Henderson – SS – HS – A quickly maturing (physically and tools) SS. Another potential #31 pick.
Kody Hoese – 3B – Tulane – Big time college power. Currently tied for 2nd in NCAA with 21. Behind JJ Bleday (Vandy) at 23.
My Pick – Braden Shewmake – SS – Texas A&M – Tremendous bat to ball skills and bat speed. He can be fooled and be out on his front foot and still slap an opposite field single. Average but accurate arm. Does not currently show power, but at 6’ 4” he could certainly develop average power. A total unselfish player who can and will play any infield position. This may be a reach at this spot. High floor, not as high ceiling.
Other potential – Brooks Lee – HS SS, Will Wilson NC State SS – Logan Davidson – Clemson (good aluminum bat; not so much wood bat). Solid defensive SS.
If Josh Jung – Texas Tech 3B falls to #25, the Dodgers could very well select him. A top college hitter who is developing more power.
One OFer they could see drop would be Missouri’s Kameron Misner. One of the best polished college hitters with 20-20 potential. Great eye at the plate with good bat speed. His power will increase as he grows into his 6’4” frame. He can stick in CF, but has the tools for RF. I hate making comparisons, but somehow I am reminded of a LH George Springer. I am not predicting it, but I would not be surprised.
Potential Pitchers:
This is a very weak college pitcher class. There are also not a lot of high ceiling HS pitching prospects. Pitchers who are could be around when the Dodgers select:
HS RHP – Quinn Priester – 4 seam fastball can reach 97, while his heavy 2 seamer hits around 92 with a lot of movement. Has one of the better HS curves he throws at 80 with excellent spin. His change is a work in progress. TCU Commitment.
HS RHP Danny Espino – Many tie Espino to LAD because he is very similar to JT Ginn; undersized who throws exceptionally hard. He is routinely 94-97 and has hit triple digits. Also has an effective 2 seamer with heavy sink. He also has two swing and miss breaking ball; a low 80’s slider with movement, and a high 70’s curveball. He currently overpowers batters, so he is going to need to learn to pitch rather than throw. The problem is that it is rumored he is going to want $4MM to get out of his LSU commitment. The current FO makeup does not seem inclined to offer 50% of their bonus pool money to one player. They got burned last year with a HS pitcher, so I do not see them doing it again.
George Kirby – RHP – Elon – He is a potential 4 pitch pitcher with a lot of spin and movement in all of his pitches. He has outstanding control. In his first 12 starts this season, Kirby had 96 strikeouts to 6 walks. Easily projectable to be a #3 starter. With four pitches, he has the ability to start, but was a tremendous reliever in the Cape Cod league. He seems to be a more polished Tony Gonsolin type pitcher. Chances are he will not last until #25, but I would expect the Dodgers to look long at Kirby if he does.
Perhaps the pitcher the Dodgers are hoping drops is Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson. Thompson is a college pitcher with four solid pitches. He could drop to the Dodgers because there are health concerns with his elbow. However with the way he has pitched this year, much of that concern seems to be waning. But this is the exact type of pitcher the Dodgers would covet. Potential #2 to #3 in the rotation. You know the Dodgers like him…LHP, from Kentucky, first name Zach.
Jack Leiter could fall to the Dodgers, but I doubt that the Dodgers will take that chance since they lost out on Ginn last year. See Espino above.
One pundit had the Dodgers selecting RHP Carter Stewart at #31. Carter was the #8 pick last year by the Braves but did not sign. He was supposed to join Ginn at Mississippi St. but went the JC route so he would be draftable again. He did not have a standout year at Eastern Florida State College, and he is slipping quickly. I believe the pundit is thinking the Dodgers roll the dice and select Stewart at #31 and make him a below slot offer to see if he will bite.
If Kirby or Thompson fall to the Dodgers at #25, I think they would go the college pitcher route. If not, I think they will take a college infielder; Shewmake, Hoese, Jung, or OF – Kameron Misner. The picks will change a thousand times before the actual draft, and I will try to refine it as we get closer to draft day. But at least there are some names that we might become familiar with as we approach June 3.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26727778/holland-rips-giants-brass-says-faked-injury
This is pretty funny
Enjoy losing, Farhan.
Yes, Turner opened the door. Baez did his job. It is the pens job to close the door. They did not close the door. Alexander is the one that upsets me. We should of won 2-1. A great waste for Beuhler. Verdugo is not afraid of any pitcher.
Another point is the pitch selection. Baez has been using a slider and change up this year effectively. On the first batter he threw 3 fastballs. He had 2 strikes on the batter. As an old catcher, I try to think along with the pitch selection of the catcher. I thought the 4 pitch would of been a change up. It was not. Another fastball and a hit to left field.
Good post AC, a lot of good info, much appreciated! I’d like to see them go 3B or OF with their top 2 picks but it may well depend on who falls. No ‘might sign’ pitcher types this year please!
The Dodgers lost a hard fought game, dissect it any way you want to, it’s one game and not a long term issue. I saw 3 great AB’s in that inning, by Soto, Rendon and Parra, tip your cap they did their job. Rendon struck out but saw a lot of pitches. Defense and bullpen let Buehler down but can’t really fault Doc, it was execution (or lack of) The real test is if they bounce back and split the series today behind Ryu. The Nats have 3 studs in their rotation and they will win more than their share of games.
Doc should have left Baez in. He’s in love with that lefty on lefty thing and is backfires more often then it works. Andrew needs to get Doc a Loogy, or Doc needs to stop trying to use Alexander like one. We need an 8th inning guy desperately. Trade some prospects!
I’ve seen enough of Baez over the years to know he isn’t the 8th inning guy. He seems to do really well facing the heart of the order earlier in game, but has problems in the late innings.
Same needs as with the offseason. 8th inning guy – Solution – Kelly – Bust so far. Right handed power bat – Pollock – bust so far. It’s hard to be a GM. But, we’re still in 1st place.
Happy Mothers Day to all the moms in Dodgerland!
I would have left Baez in too, not his error that mucked up the inning. I understand going to Alexander though, trying for the DP but then all high pitches called! Maybe Cingrani is the loogie they need.
>>He’s in love with that lefty on lefty thing and is backfires more often then it works. <<
Do you have any proof whatsoever to support this?
The proof is actually the opposite way. It works more often than not. It’s just this way it fits the narrative that has already been determined.
Okay, it backfires often enough, three of Alexander’s last 7 outings. It isn’t “most of the time”. But, almost half the time is really freaking bad.
“Almost half the time” when using an absurdly small sample size is a really freaking bad way to try to make a point.
Interesting game of poker being played in SF Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner, who has a partial no-trade clause, can block trades to eight teams, and he opted to block trades with eight contending teams, per Ken Rosenthal. Those teams are the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies and Cardinals.
He named 8 of the teams he is most likely to be traded to. Gives him leverage if traded as could waive no trade clause for added considerations. It is in his best interest to be traded this year as then he wouldn’t have a compensatory pick tied to his signing as a FA.
Guess he figures a trade with the Dodgers is not likely
Turner was hit on the right throwing arm. ??
AC, thank you for the Amateur Draft Report.
My questions on last night’s game…….Is Barnes a good pitch calling catcher? Why so many high pitches from Alexander? Was his control that much off or was he pitching what was called? We’re both he and Floro given enough time to warm up?
Happy Mother’s Day to MJ and others.
Plenty of blame to go around but even Orel was practically yelling at him to get the ball down. Failure has a hundred fathers.
He only threw high pitches. Had the batter 1-2 . All pitches were high. Orel should be the pitching coach or manager.
Alexander again Nervous reliever . Just as Trump said.
Joking?
Hoping?
Trolling?
Yes, we have a lot of those. Even Kenley looks nervous these days.
Is it just me or is everyone here not seeing that though Turner gave Dodgers the lead he also gave it away with an err on a possible (probable?) double play. Can’t give any teams 5 outs and expect to win. Leather!!
Some fans never let reason or facts stand in the way of their opinion.
Some fans are blindly faithful to a horrible manager.
Dodgers lineup:
LF Pederson
1B Muncy
3B Turner
RF Bellinger
CF Verdugo
SS Seager
2B Hernandez
C Martin
P Ryu
I fixed the drain on the Laundry Room sink – Happy Mother’s Day!
My wife loved it!
LIke the lineup today-same as yesterday except Alex moved to the 5 hole and Cory dropped to 6 and Martin in for Barnes. On paper the only thing going for the Nats today is Strasberg and Rendon, this should be a one sided affair. Day games at Dodger Stadium usually lead to multiple HR’s, get his pitch count up and into their bullpen. If Parra never does another thing for the Nats he will be remembered for the granny game winner in his 1st game with a new team. He always seems to torment the Dodgers. Is the joke on us or on Farhan for releasing him?
BTW, that was some great coverage of the upcoming draft. I loved AC’s comment about Jeren Kendall:
But the HR is in his blood, and he lusts for that power.
Maybe they should consider fining Kendall $500 for every home run he hits!
Nice post AC! I always love the MLB Draft. Players that I would love to see us draft with the first 4 picks are George Kirby (don’t think he lasts until the 21st pick though, but love the strike throwing machine he is), Keoni Cavaco, Quinn Priester, Braden Shewmake, Chase Strumpf, Seth Johnson, Tyler Callihan, Brooks Lee, Nick Quintana, Ethan Small and Ryne Nelson.
With the draft coming up, I have been looking over the past 10 years of the draft to see what happens with the players that don’t sign after they are drafted, with the thought I might put together a post in my spare time (which there has been so precious little of in the past 2 months). It’s an interesting study. There are of course Paul Goldschmidt, Kevin Gausman, Christian Walker and David Price, but there are also Kyle Blair, Conner Power, Jamaal Moore and a host of others who either were never drafted again, or who had short MILB careers and stepped away from baseball. Hope to get that together soon. On the other hand, since you, Mark and DC are much better writers than I, perhaps one of you could capture the vision and write it for me.
Demeter, you should write it. Just let Mark know and he will be more than happy to publish it. It sounds like a great piece. I am more than willing to give up one of my days.
I’d love to read that Dmeter; please write it!
I’ll second that motion. I’ll give up a day… or 8.
Where’s Fatt Kemp and his Negative .9 WAR? That’s impressive futility! I heard he was coming…
He’s sitting on a giant pile of F.U. money.
Mark, I was not watching the game last. I was keeping up on my iPad so thanks for letting me know turner botched a double play ball. However, the bullpen is still an albatross. Baez has proven over and over he is not an 8 th inning guy. I don’t blame Roberts because he has to use somebody and these are the guys he has. Baez, floro,Garcia, Alexander are all low leverage guys. They cannot consistently throw quality strikes. They are either behind in the count or can’t finish a hitter. You have got to be able to get guys like difo out as he is a weak hitter. These guys are good enough to help us win the division but forget the World Series. I feel for Roberts in a close game. Who can you trust? Uhuhuh….nobody. The nats have quality pitching but about 3 hitters with turner out. We need a consistent 8th inning guy. Maybe stripling or cingrani. Stripling should be starting over maeda but not happening. This is mattingly days all over.
Must read article by Andy McCullough in the LA Times sport section this morning on how bullpens league wide are getting stressed out and blown up. Sounds like we aren’t the only team with issues, some pitching coaches and Doc himself said alot of the young guys (who are cheap) coming up just aren’t ready for the high stress situations. Totally agree with these guys.
How nice was that to see the Dodgers manufacture a run with actual productive outs!
DRS leaders 2019
Cain-11
Belly-9
Verdugo-9
Trout-8
Ryu with 6 IP, 0 hits, and ~90 pitches…
Fan plea to Dave Roberts – please let Ryu go for it. Don’t pull him due to pitch count. I know this was done before to Rich Hill and Ross Stripling. Ryu will survive if he goes about the pitch count limit just once. You can give him a rest in his next start and use Urias. Just let him try for it. Please.
Strip was making his first start after Tommy John surgery, and in the cold wet SF weather. It was smart to pull him, and even Strip’s dad thanked Doc for that.
Hill was dealing with his ridic blister issues, and we needed him for October. I forget how many pitches Hill had thru 7 perfect, but that one was gut wrenching and I don’t know what I would’ve done. That’s a tough one.
Congrats to ryu! I said no team would have paid 18 million. Thank God la did. I wanted la to sign him but 3 years at about 11 mil per year. Maybe neither wanted that. His only question is health. I hope he is healthy and fresh at the end. He and buehler will make a fine 1-2 pitch him in la.
Man, C.J. McCullough was the best player on the floor today by a longshot.
Maybe that gets Seager going. He’s the key to the Dodgers having a great season! Liked that Doc just didn’t pull Ryu after he lost the no no and bring in Jansen. Speaking of Kenley, his stuff looked good with some rest and he was using his slider! Can’t overuse him anymore!
Key to the season might be Roberts. Just sayin’.
LOL
I love how the ESPN article about Holland and the Giants buries the lede until the last sentence, saying he’s 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA.
Ryu needs to lose some weight, about 10-15kg.
Jansen, about 15kg
Urias, more than 5kg
Yimi, more than 5kg
Muncy, more than 5kg
All these players will feel better, move quicker, and stay healthier.
Barnes should be a backup catcher. He cannot throw out base stealers at an adequate rate. 17%. This is a red, red, alert!! Martin has the same CS%! We may need to make Martin the starter and Barnes the backup. Martin seems to be a better hitter and has better #’s at home. Both have horrible hitting at away games! Next season, hopefully neither will be the starter.
Seager has been atrocious at home. In hindsight, maybe he should have or will be sent down to work it out in the minors. Luckily, his fielding doesn’t seem to have suffered.
The team overall, has sucked on the road. We’ve been great at home. This needs to change.