I was not excited when the Dodgers traded for Joe Kelly, because I knew who Joe Kelly was. Joe Kelly can be very, very good, as the Dodgers saw up close and personal in the 2018 World Series. But he can also, be Very, VERY bad… as we are seeing now. He is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde… and right about now he is getting under all Dodger Fan’s hydes. However, I did learn that the Dodgers targeted him because they believe that he has some “fixable” mechanical flaws in his delivery that they can smooth out. So, I have supported it, but not with a ton of confidence.
I,n 2016, Joe Kelly had and 8.46 ERA before the All-Star game and a 1.02 ERA the rest of the season. In 2017, he had two months with a 0.00 ERA in a row, followed by two months with a 6.75 ERA in a row. In 2018, which is our closest reference point, he had a 108.00 ERA in March, followed by a 0.00 ERA in April 0.63 in May, 8.31 in June, 8.38 in July, 1.42 in August and 8.31 in September. Of course, we know how he did in the World Series against the Dodgers. He was a Dodger Killer… and he still is (I stole that from someone)!
The Dodgers think they can fix that. So far, they haven’t. How long does it last? The Dodgers have three loses – Joe Kelly’s fingerprints are all over all three. There’s not a trace of Joe in the wins. Detect a trend? The Dodgers HAVE to stay with him. Dave Roberts has to pitch him… maybe not in high leverage situations, but he has to keep rolling him out… at least for now.
The possibilities are endless, but we have to acknowledge that he could be an unmitigated disaster. As Dodger fans we can only hope that is not so.
Minor League Report by AC
Great night for the Dodgers farm clubs as they went 4-0 on the night.
OKC 5 – San Antonio Missions (Brewers) 4
OKC got their second win of the season. Justin De Fratus started for the Dodgers and went 6.0 innings allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, 0 walks, and registering 6 strikeouts. Layne Somsen and Zach McAllister pitched the 7th and 8th in shutout fashion.
Missions starting pitcher went the first five innings allowing zero runs on a pair of hits but issuing 5 walks and notching 8 strikeouts. Missions new pitcher, Jon Olczyk, walked the bases full in the 6th but got out of the inning without allowing a run. Olczyk came back out in the 7th but was not as successful. Rocky Gale started the inning with a walk, and with one out, Paolo Orlando was issued a walk. The Orlando walk was followed by a RBI single by Daniel Castro, and then another RBI single by Matt Beaty making the score 3-2. Next up was Will Smith who got his first 2019 HR and 3 RBIs and a 5-3 lead. Stetson Allie closed it off with his 2nd save, but not without a little excitement with a 9th inning lead off HR to Keston Hiura.
Tulsa Drillers 10 – Springfield Cardinals (1)
The Drillers also won their second game of the season. The Drillers scored runs in the first 6 innings, and after being shut out in the 7th, scored 3 runs in the 8th. Tulsa got 13 hits including a 4-4 day for Gavin Lux (1st triple and 1st HR). Zach Reks got two hits including his 2nd HR. Other XBH for Tulsa include doubles by Thole (2), Santana (2), and Estevez (3).
25-year-old RHP, Austin Hamilton, made his first AA appearance. After starting only 3 games in his professional career, Hamilton’s conversion to the starting rotation got off to a good start. He went the first 4 innings allowing zero runs on 3 hits, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts. Andre Scrubb was the first of 3 reliever, pitching 2.0 innings allowing zero runs, 1 hit, 1 walk, and 2 Ks. Nolan Long followed with 2 innings but allowed the sole run with 3 hits (2 doubles) and 2 Ks. Adam McCreery pitched the final inning in a non-save situation without allowing any runs.
Great Lakes 3 – South Bend Cubs 2
Like OKC and Tulsa, GL won for the 2nd time in 2019. With 2 outs in the first inning, Dan Robinson, Niko Hulsizer, and Romer Cuadrado hit consecutive doubles for a 2-0 lead, It was a lead that stood until the 9th when the Cubs scored two off RHP, Nathan Witt, to tie the game at 2-2. But in the bottom of the 9th, with 1 out, Hunter Feduccia hit his 2nd double of the season. Drew Avans was intentionally walked, and Jacob Amaya loaded the bases by getting on with a fielder’s choice. Dan Robinson had a chance to be a hero, and he did not disappoint, with a walk off single for the Loons.
22-year-old Jeronimo Castro started and pitched 4 shutout innings allowing a pair of hits, 2 walks, and NINE strikeouts. In his second 2019 appearance, Alfredo Tavarez followed with 3 shutout innings allowing a sole baserunner on a walk and getting 4 K’s. Witt went 1.2 innings allowing the tieing runs, before Jasiel Alvino, also pitching in his second game, recorded the final out against the one batter he faced.
RC Quakes 4 – Visalia Rawhide (DBacks) 1
All eyes were on Michael Grove who made his professional debut. He pitched a very good three innings allowing one hit, issuing one walk, and registering 4 K’s. Wills Montgomery came on and pitched 1.2 innings allowing 1 hit, issuing 3 walks and getting 1 K. Victor Gonzalez pitched 2.1 shutout innings allowing a sole walk and getting 5 strikeouts and getting the victory. Devin Hemmerich made his RC debut and allowed one run on a disputed and blown call (per the announcers) on a double play ground ball when batter was called safe at first. Jordan Sheffield pitched a scoreless 9th for his first 2019 save, by striking out the side with one walk.
Jeren Kendall went 3-4 (and a walk) and was a HR shy of hitting for the cycle. He scored on a Connor Wong double in the 9th but gave a scare as he slid head first home and appeared to jamb his shoulder. He got up in extreme paid and was helped back to the bench but made his way back out to CF for the 9th.
Donovan Casey continued his hot hitting with a 2-4 night including a run scoring triple and later scored on a sac fly from Devin Mann. The Quakes have now won 4 consecutive games and are 4-1 on the season.
To put your thoughts on Kelly another way;
The Dodgers record in 2019, 8 wins and 3 Kelly’s.
I will admit that I was on the positive side for the FA signing of Joe Kelly. I did not expect consistent lock down 8th inning setup, but I also never expected what the Dodgers are experiencing now. It appeared that Kelly had discovered his new pitch and pitch mix going into the playoffs last year, and maybe he can use that for a full season. At least that was the thought. There is no doubt that Honey was consulted. A number of interviews with Kelly to validate the change in his pitching repertoire. These guys do not commit $25MM without doing their due diligence.
This is what I was hoping for. “Not only did Cora and LeVangie want the reliever to mix in his offspeed stuff more, but they also took away one of his pitches, the slider … sort of. Kelly obviously kept his high-90’s fastball, along with what has become a lethal changeup. But now instead of throwing his curveball and slider he really throws a pitch they simply classify as a breaking ball, having the pitcher execute the offerings with the curveball grip but with a velocity more resembling the slider.”
That is what worked in his last couple of relief outings in the regular season that got him on the post season roster, and carried over into the WS against LAD. Or maybe Kelly just exploited a Dodger weakness in their hitting approach last year.
I agree that Doc has no choice but to continue to pitch him and hope that something clicks. He is due to be very good for an extended period of time in his very cyclical career.
I wanted Ottovino but from what I heard he is from NYC and his signing with the Yankees was a foregone conclusion. I didn’t hate the JK signing.
So who’s the multi inning guy that comes up today when Ryu goes on the IL? Gonsolin? Allie?
I suspect it may not be a multi inning guy initially. My money is on Chargois as he is already on the 40 man roster. Whether there is another roster shuffle for Saturday’s game (spot start or bullpen game) is another matter.
IIRC, 40 man options are
Alvarez
Chargois
McCreery
Sborz
Schultz
Stewart
oh good call; I forgot about Chagois.
I suspect Saturday will be a bullpen game (Ferguson or Santana starting).
If Kershaw does well tonight at Tulsa and is able to start on Sunday (that would give us a 5 man rotation of Kershaw, Stripling, Maeda, Beuhler, Urias).
If Kershaw is not able to be activated Sunday then we will eventually need a 5th starter. Sunday would be Stripling’s regular start so wouldn’t need to call up another starter until the 4/18 start in Milwaukee.
So, in the event he is a disaster, what is the plan B?
I understand AF’s strategy in accumulating quantity with respect to castoffs, retreads, and talented but flawed (but potentially fixable) RPs. It’s a numbers game, and relief pitchers tend to be sporadically good and bad – and fungible. No sense in opening the wallet for Brandon Leagues when you can discover a Brandon Morrow.
…but I dont want to watch another World Series go in the crapper because, after an impeccable performance by the starter and a key home run, some Joe Blanton journeyman reliever hangs a slider….because he was never a good pitcher to begin with.
What would it take to get Kimbrel on a one year deal…if that’s even possible?
I know you want the closer for Texas, but why would they trade him? I wanna date Sophia Vergera but she’s not available.
See, I am not convinced you are going to get the old Craig Kimbrel. He worries me.
I think on a 5 year deal, I’d agree maybe he’s not the same guy.
But on a 1 year deal, with the motivation to go get his 4-5 year deal this offseason, he’ll go all out. He won’t get judged or paid on saves; he’ll get judged/paid on strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, inherited runners scoring, etc.
I agree with Patch and others; if we were gona give Harper $45mil this year, I’d be willing to roll the dice on a 1 year high salary deal with Kimbrel.
Who knows or cares at this moment.
Nobody is going to use the “disaster” word until a month or two from now, right?
Strip would be a hero if he can give us at least 6 tonight.
6 innings is the contemporary equivalent of a complete game.
Butt, I mean Bud Norris.
Lightening does strike twice in the same place. Well, the same situation.
As AC had in his report, Austin Hamilton pitched four shutout innings in the Drillers 10-1 win over Springfield — just as he did in his Drillers debut last Sept. 2 at Springfield.
Looking back is a fool man’s wisdom!!! Is it me or is it early in the seaso!??!
Any time now I’m waiting for a HamC’s latest anal ist update… Boy that’s some kind of bad…
I’ll throw my hat in for Sborz…
Co-sign on Sborz. Let’s see what he’s got. Allie has potential but maybe let him hone his craft a bit in AAA before we call him up. If he really is pumping 100 mph gas, we could use that in the postseason.
The biggest surprise to me isn’t that Ryu got hurt but that the team gave him a QO for $17.9M when this is exactly who he is: a productive but brittle pitcher who makes more this season than Bauer and Kluber and a lot of other guys who were available and signed for less. I didn’t see it then and don’t see it now, of course he was going to accept it. It’s not his fault he got hurt and he has a history of coming back slowly from injuries. Add in the Kershaw and Hill situations and that is why I wanted a proven big game innings eater instead of bringing Ryu back. Since Ryu and Hill are likely gone after the season anyway (pretty please) let’s see what we have starting with Urias and Strip and then the minor league guys. For now it’s guys on the 40 man already to fill in but that will change as the season goes on and injuries pile up. I would like to see May get the call at some point this year. I would love to see Kimbrel but until after the draft he still costs a pick and he won’t come cheap. Jansen could still opt out after this year (if he does bye bye) and the closer spot would be wide open. We have some good young arms that could potentially be that guy but playoff tested?
No offense to Jansen but if he opts out we should consider ourselves lucky.
I’d look at reworking Maeda’s contract [swapping some IP/GS incentives for S/GF ones] and naming him closer.
I was preaching that about Ryu all winter long and kept getting pushback at how good of a pitcher he is when he is healthy. But he was not worth a $18MM price tag after pitching less than 100 innings last year. And now he is out with the same type of injury that kept him out for 2.5 months last year. Really, who could not see this coming? I was hoping I was wrong, but I certainly said so during the winter. I recognize there are levels of strains & tears, but last year the original report was he would not be out long and he was out from May 2 to August 15…2.5 months. It will be very hard to believe what we hear from management as to the severity of the groin injury.
Yes I wanted Kluber or Bauer, but unless the trading team is willing to trade the player, wanting and getting are not necessarily the same. Yes I think May and Gonsolin will be good starting pitchers, but not in 2019. I think Michael Grove and Mitchell White have the capability of being good starting pitchers, but not before 2021. Teams are tying up their starting pitchers, so who might be available is not well known. Teams that have rentals who are also contenders are not going to trade them. So forget Gerrit Cole. Houston may be able to extend him as they did with Bregman and Verlander. The Giants are not going to trade MadBum to LAD. I have no idea who this year’s Rick Porcello will be. But I believe that AF & Co. know more than any of us who might be available. A trade for a difference maker is what was/is needed. Not another journeyman #4 or #5 pitcher. The Dodgers have the prospect capital to make something work.
My point this winter was that you do not want to trade when you need to. To think that Kershaw, Hill, Ryu would get through 2019 without any lengthy time off was not reasonable. To expect Ferguson, Santana, May, or Gonsolin to step up in any long term meaningful way as a starting pitcher in 2019 was also not reasonable. Last year in May, 4 of the 5 starting pitchers were on the IL. Now LAD has 3 on the IL. And while Buehler technically was not on the IL this year, perhaps he should have been just to get innings in. None of these injuries are phantom injuries just to get pitchers rest.
Now we are hoping that Strip can make 100 pitches even though he was not properly stretched out in ST. There is not much that can be done now other than work the magic with the 40 man. We all know AF can do that. I am just tired of having to do that. At some point you just have to say F it, we are going for it this year. That is what I was hoping for this past winter. Now they just have to wait to see who the sellers will be and make do with who they have. They are better equipped to handle it better than any team, but it is not ideal. Maybe the available difference maker will be the big RH bat they also could use. It is not going to get any easier next year. SD will undoubtedly flame out before too long, but they are close to being a contender. The same with Atlanta.
The offense needs to continue. Corey is heating up. JT is getting back to his hot ST streak. Muncy seems to be getting his stroke back. The catchers are playing extremely well right now. Belli is on fire. Somehow they just need to get through the next 35 days with what they have. We know they can.
From Alanna Rizzo’s official twitter account……………… May or Gonsolin to the show, or is it Kimbrel or is it Kuechel?????
Any guesses
Big. Things. Poppin.
— Alanna Rizzo (@alannarizzo)
it’s Chargois
Hardly a Pip let alone a Pop.
Agree, I was hoping for a Dustin May start since it is his day in the rotation. Not real inspired by the addition of JT Cargois. Kind of another Joe Kelly equivalent.
Didn’t need May as we don’t need starter until Ryu’s turn comes up again. With Kershaw coming back, we really don’t need another starter except for 1 game (next Saturday when Ryu’s turn comes around. Better for May to stay in Tulsa and start than to be an early season BP piece. I expect to see May in LA before season is over but right now it’s better for him to stay in MiLB and start.
Someone elsewhere said we basically have a 50-man roster considering all the players we have potentially available for use this season. I expect to see a rapidly revolving door of 25th men [and 13th pitchers] throughout the season.
Yes, expect the roster to be fully utilized this year as always. AF is one of the best with this. Don’t remember how many different players we saw last year on the 25 man roster last year but suspect it is >40 and will be as well this year
{Warning: Off-Topic Rant Below}
So, I am so firmly entrenched in this viewpoint that I am unable to be swayed. If you disagree with me, I respect that, but I am not coming over to your side. This is my Waterloo and I’ll die here if necessary:
In last night’s championship basketball game, there was an overturned call that, to me, represents everything that is wrong with instant replay in sports. Moreover, it was immediately preceded by probably the best line I’ve ever a sports personality say [I think it was the on-call rules expert guy].
With about a minute left [I forget all the details], a Virginia player swiped at the ball in a TT player’s hand, sending the ball out of bounds. Easy call: TT ball. Thank u, next.
BUT, of course the longer they looked at the call, it became clear they were considering overturning it. There was some speculation that they were checking the clock but, no, upon slowing down the speed, it appeared that in the midst of the swiping, the ball technically touched the TT’s player’s hand last. Call overturned. Virginia’s ball.
Now, on the surface there is nothing wrong. The camera caught something the ref didn’t. Hell, it might’ve been the correct call and I still don’t like it [I had no skin in the game BTW–my Ducks were eliminated by Virginia so I was kinda rooting against them but that’s beside the point, I think]. The point is, the slowed down replay showed us something that the naked eye couldn’t even see. Much like a sliding baserunner popping off a bag for a split-second and being called out or a football momentarily grazing the grass while controlled in a wide receiver’s arms.
The line that the on-air rules expert said was [paraphrasing]:
“The camera image tends to distort when slowed down.”
I heard the word “distort” [which was definitely in there] and thought “AHA!”–finally, someone gets why not all replays can be helpful. To demonstrate, I mimicked this swiping on my nine year-old son’s Oreo, saying if I were to swipe it away, like so, EVEN IF HIS HAND TECHNICALLY TOUCHED IT LAST it was still “off me.”
This fundamental principle has been good enough for playgrounds and ball fields since we were all young and easy under the apple boughs.
I didn’t turn off the TV but I lost interest after that. It was too intrusive of a use of video. It was like showing me proof that I accidentally cut off some lady in line for groceries even though I had a clear path. It was a physical act in a physical world reduced to a swirling of pixellated images so removed from reality that it might as well have been an x-ray or a heat map.
The one guy knocked the ball out of the other guy’s hand. But because the camera showed the other guy touched it last the one guy gets to keep possession. It was probably the correct call but it was not the right one.
Sorry for the length . . .
I agree, didn’t like the call.
But the refs called for a replay even though it happened too fast for the human eye to see? Wonder what they saw. Good recap of what happened BlackMirror. I found it very interesting.
Under 2 minutes they can check plays like that and typically do. My personal feeling on replay is that if it takes more than 30 seconds to overturn a call the call should stand. Looking into minutia goes against the grain of original intent. Instant replay was put in place so “obviously” blown calls can be corrected. Problem is what do you call “obvious”?
I still think the Dodgers-cub series turned when Adrian Gonzales was called out at home while I felt the replay proved him safe. So, even replay is not perfect.
I said way back we should go for Kimbrel if a short term deal can be made. Maybe after the draft. I am more leery now because he missed spring training. If him and Kenley could work together he has to be better than what we have. As far as Kelley as you say he is who he is. Hopefully he will get hot at the right time if we can get into the playoffs. Absent kimbrel I am with peter j let’s try sborz, etc until we have exhausted our possibilities. Not being on the 40 man hurts sborz etc. maybe trade with the white Sox for a guy like Fry.
Kelley should be a guy who could go multiple innings and be mostly good and sometimes great. There is a reason Boston didn’t resign him. Kelley himself admitted no team offered him 3 years. Another McCourt signing, overpay for an average pitcher but no one else will pay the price. Kelley is the type of signing you don’t get overly excited but the bullpen is so bad you think he has to be better. If he remains healthy he will help us but he doesn’t solve the bullpen problems.
Hey, at least AF didn’t sign Rosenthal. I don’t think he has recorded an out yet.
Rosentals last outing, 38 pitches with no ours recorded.
Chargois recalled.
Ryu says injury is minor.
‘Tis but a scratch … it’s only a flesh wound
So as I watch our game, I’m also listening to the Tulsa game, where Kersh started.
In the 3rd inning, Kersh had a line drive hit back at him, and apparently it caught the back of his lower leg. The play resulted in an out, so in 3ip, he’s thrown 33 pitches, no runs, 2 hits, 1k. The fastest speed on the radar gun that the announcers mentioned was a 92mph fastball.
Let’s see if he comes out for the 4th inning.
UPDATE: Kersh is back out in the 4th
To say this Cardinal pitcher works slowly is an insult to every slow working pitcher in the world.
Magic stepping down as Lakers president
Kersh 5ip, 2 hits, 3k
Stripling belongs in the bullpen He is not a starter
He nibbles too much and when he falls behind gets nailed by good hitters. They need to stop babying Urias. By the time they’re ready to take the kid gloves off he will be a free-agent.
~
While I certainly understand why they didn’t pinch hit for Stripling I don’t agree with it.
Hawkeye I agree the DODGERS baby there players
I would phrase this, Dodgerfan, as Stripling is a starter but belongs in the BP. Same with Urias until some actual relievers that pitch effectively step up.
The problem with Ryu is not his pitching but his frailty. The Dodgers remained loyal to him most probably because of his reasonable contract. They thought if he got healthy they would have an very good pitcher for a reasonable cost. I don’t think they expected him to take the QO, hence the position we find ourselves in. The FO probably did not feel the young guns like Gonsolin and May were ready for center stage and could live with Ryu for another year while they matured. They want to keep the starters within the system and I don’t blame them as they’ve got some great talent waiting. Same deal with the catchers. So now, perhaps there will be an acceleration of May or Gonsolin coming up sooner rather tha later. We’ll see.
Hitting w/ RISP not so good the last two nights. Open the batting cage an hour earlier tomorrow. AJ looked no so good tonight.
It was all worth it for that Osuna play.
At least Kike’ loved it.
Bluto, that was one of the strangest things I’ve ever seen in baseball!
As Mark would say, nothing to see here, moving on! Lost 4-0, let’s get it tomorrow night!
Mediocre team such as the Giants the Diamondbacks the Rockies the Dodgers have no problem with these type of teams bring in the Cardinals Milwaukee and the Dodgers will hit a buzzsaw or a brick wall that is who they are
Dodgerfan, I’m surprised to hear that this is your opinion of the present Dodgers. Ryu’s injury is unfortunate and not indicative of the team as a whole. Kelly’s relief is also a problem and not indicative of the strength of the BP but of the strength of our latest signing ($25M). Stripling’s poor outing is indeed all on him and the Dodger batters did not put together a game with bringing in RISP, the first poor showing of the season from them. One game out of 11 and your proclaiming them done and dusted? They still got hits and put RISP. No team can win every game, unfortunately. You must not have seen how the Dodgers have played up till now. St. Louis has a slightly better record than AZ but you are proclaiming them a buzzsaw? C’mon, guy.