Less than two weeks to go before Opening Day, and I still have one more team to give my best shot an analyzing for the upcoming 2019 season. Today I am taking a look at what should be the Dodgers closest competition (only competition?) in the NL West…Colorado Rockies.
Last year, after 162 games, they tied our Los Angeles Dodgers with a 91-61 record, tops in the NL West. They ran into a Walker Buehler buzzsaw for game 163 and finished 2nd in the Division. They were then cut down 3 games to none by the Milwaukee Brewers. The Rockies were shutout the final two games (4-0 & 6-0) after losing Game 1 (3-2) in extra innings. Obviously they hope to improve on those results, and believe they have a team that can compete.
The Rockies should have six potential starters they can consider. They will be led by a couple of young hurlers, LHSP Kyle Freeland (26) and RHSP German Marquez (24). Freeland had a very good year in 2018, amassing a 17-7 record in 202.1 IP and a 2.85 ERA (not bad for a pitcher pitching half his games at Coors). His strikeout to walk ratio of 2.47 tells us he is not dominant, but his IP and ERA says that he is effective. Freeland was 4th in the CYA voting.
His RHP counterpart, German Marquez, also pitched well last year. The 24 year old Venezuelan compiled a 14-11 record with a 3.77 ERA, but a much more respectable 4.04 strikeout to walk ratio. Marquez was also the NL Silver Slugger award winner for pitchers.
LHSP Tyler Anderson (29) started 32 games for Colorado and pitched about as well as one can expect pitching half his games in Denver. He had 176 IP and has the makings of an ideal #4 or #5 innings eater.
RHSP Chad Bettis (30) appears to be cancer free and hopefully blister free as well. He was never considered as promising as the others in the rotation, but his persistence makes him one that will be considered for 3-5.
RHSP Jon Gray (27) was on his way to becoming the Ace of the Rockies in 2017 when he suffered a stress fracture in his foot and was out for three months. He suffered a pitching setback in 2018 and was optioned. He has just never recovered from that 2017 injury. He should be in the rotation this year.
The 6th potential starter is swing man RHP Antonio Senzatela. A second 24 year old Venezuelan started 13 games and relieved in 10 last year. He also started 8 games in Albuquerque with a more than respectable 2.15 ERA in the hitter friendly PCL, especially in Albuquerque.
The Rockies tried to buy themselves a bullpen last year with long and costly contracts given to closer Wade Davis, RHRP, Bryan Shaw, and LHRP, Jake McGee. None of the three were overly effective for the year, and had it not been for the revelation of RHRP Adam Ottavino, the bullpen would have had some serious setbacks. Ottavino turned his stellar year into a 3 year $27MM contract with the NYY, his childhood dream team. They did not replace Ottavino, so they are hoping for huge bounceback years from both McGee and Shaw.
The rest of the bullpen should consist of LHRPs Mike Dunn, Chris Rusin, and Harrison Musgrave, and RHRPs Scott Oberg, Jeff Hoffman, and Seunghwan Oh. Not a spectacular group, so it is possible that someone from one of their minor league affiliates might sneak in.
The catchers should be the same as last year with platooning RHH Chris Iannetta (36 next month) and LHH Tony Wolters(26). RHH Tom Murphy is out of options and might be considered, but with the Rockies overall offense, they can afford to have a weak hitting catcher. The problem that the Rockies FO faces is that with Iannetta turning 36 this year and neither Wolters or Murphy are ready to take the reins full time, and no prospect at catcher, they are going to need to look outside the organization for help. But this year Iannetta will hold it down with either Wolters or Murphy.
The strength of the Rockies is their infield, specifically the left side of their infield. Fresh from a 7 year $260MM contract, the face of the team is all world 3B, Nolan Arenado. Many Dodger fans were hoping Nolan would try FA and perhaps sign with his childhood team, LAD. But Nolan knows that a big part of his game is due to half his games at Coors, so he was more than eager to extend and the money was obviously tantalizing. Arenado is the total package. In his six years he has 6 Gold Gloves, 2 Platinum Gloves, and 4 Silver Slugger awards, all for 3B. When best players in MLB are discussed, Nolan Arenado is on the very very very very short list.
Another potential superstar is SS Trevor Story. Trevor is a gifted 6′ 2″ SS who defends well, but is better known because of his bat. You have to get past LAD SS Corey Seager to be considered the best NL SS, but Trevor does not have far to climb. After a tough sophomore year, last year Trevor bounced back with a slash line of .291/.348/.567/.914 with 42 doubles, 37 HRs, and 108 RBI, earning his first SS. Yes, much of his hitting prowess is due to Coors, but so what. Colorado is building their team with that in mind. After Charlie Blackmon’s and Nolan Arenado’s extensions, I look for Trevor Story to be wooed with an extension offer as well, within the next couple of years. He is 26 and will become a FA for 2022, the same year as Corey.
The Rockies lost top 2B DJ LeMahieu to free agency who was picked up by NYY. DJLM was effectively replaced by the hitting machine, AKA Daniel Murphy. I think the lure of Coors helped make the decision for Murphy. But the LHH 2B looks to move to 1B where is lack of defensive prowess might overlooked as long as he continues to hit.
So who will play 2B? 24 year old prospect Garrett Hampson will get a good look. He is having a fine ST. But not as good as another young infielder, Ryan McMahon. The 24 year old has been up and down a few times the last couple of years, but is showing signs this spring that he wants to stay. He is hitting .444/.488/.833/1.321 in 41 PA with only 4 Ks. He has 2 HRs, 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 7 RBIs. But both Hampson and McMahon figure to be keeping 2B warm for the Rockies next phenom, 22 year old SS/2B Brendan Rodgers. I hate over-hyping players, but I have not been as excited over a non-Dodger prospect since Alex Bregman. Pat Valaika looks to be a RHH bench player as an infield utility player/
The OF lost Gerardo Parra and CarGo, but still have AS CF Charlie Blackmon(L). Playing alongside Blackmon figure to be David Dahl (L), and Ian Desmond (R). Desmond is hoping to bounceback after a rough 2018, and figures to be better situated in the OF rather than at 1B. Noel Cuevas figures to be one of the extra OF bench players as he is the only other RHH OF. Raimel Tapia, Mike Tauchman, Sam Hilliard, and Michael Saunders look to land one of the LHH bench roles.
Much like the Dodgers, the Rockies are trying to internally replace players gone from last year with one strategically added FA (Murphy). They are looking for another of their starters to make a statement, and players like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Wade Davis having bounceback years. And hoping that prospects Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon are ready to take over 2B.
A team with Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Murphy, Freeland, and Davis should be good. The Rockies have no true depth, and will be dependent on their front line players having good years. They could not sustain any significant injury. But those front line players are better than the other three teams in the Division and should be in relative close proximity to LAD throughout the year. They should be a Wild Card contender in 2019, and with Coors field, they would be a threat in a short series.
I agree the Rockies should again challenge the Dodgers for the division title but this year I don´t think a wild card team will be from the West, it´s the division or nothing.
On the last thread, HamChuck asked what I thought of Andrew Faulkner:
He’s a project that could pay off. He has failed as a starter because of (1) his funky delivery (which could play well in the pen); and (2) his lack of another good pitch. His fastball is good and I think that in the pen, it could be 96-98, but he needs a cutter or something else. His change is bad and his slider is flat.
He’s worth watching and the Dodgers have a history with guys like this.
Now, back to Colorado: I do not see a successful season for the Rockies. It’s my belief they will win 80-85 games. I just don’t see anyone in the West as a contender. I think they are highly OVERRATED! Just my opinion.
They are only team in the NL West I respect. Padres will be in that category soon but until they are, forget it.
thank you. Hopefully they turn this guy around
Colorado has a very unique looking stadium. The stands in right field corner look a little like what one would expect to see behind home plate. They have high rise seating in center field which looks cool but unique to the Colorado. My seats were in a good location between home and third and maybe less than 20 rows back from the infield. We only sat in them for a couple of innings before we moved way back to empty seats because our “good” seats were so narrow and crowded with little leg room.
That was the game Kemp tried to run through the CF fence. He should have been removed from the game immediately but after a 20 minute on-field discussion with the Manager he stayed in. A few pitches later in the same inning he ran in on a pop up and dove head first for it and slid a long ways on his stomach. After another wait he was finally taken out of the game. Kemp gave everything he had when he was healthy and it cost him, that and a Manager who didn’t know better to remove him.
Did Kyle Freeland get lost in a cut and paste?
Yes. I have a tough time with this new format. But you can bet what I said was good. I think he was 17-7 with a sub 3.00 ERA with 200 IP, and 4th in CY Award.
Again, thank you AC , for a well written and well researched article. The Rockies probably will be our most serious competition in our division.
Just a curiosity if you watched the game yesterday, what is your opinion on Ryan Moseley?
I did not watch yesterday’s game, but I am hopeful for Ryan Moseley. He has talent and could be a very effective middle reliever. I have been following him. I love relievers and generally pay attention to the lesser names. Ryan is steady. He has a future but it may not be with LAD because of the robust pitching talent they have.
After watching him last night, it looked like he was trusting his stuff and not overthrowing. He is making progress.
Thank you AC and Mark.
Off to see the Dodgers. First time ever for ST.
Idahoal
I hope you have a great time this weekend!
I will be curious to hear what you saw once you get back.
AC
Thanks for your contribution as always, I bet you can’t wait to get through this tax time.
When we played against the Padres this week, it reminded me on how weak this division is going to be.
I am afraid there is not enough good pitching in this division, and because of that, we won’t be prepared as well, if we make the post season.
I always thought that was an issue for the Nationals, and I also felt a lot of their players numbers, was more because of the division they played in.
It seems the quality of the pitching we face has little to do with how Dodgers are hitting. It would be cool if hitting was a bit more perpetual but too many times it’s seemingly the whole lineup gets caught up in some funk and make so-so pitchers look like aces. Well hopefully this will soon change after the season starts counting. Hitting’s been catchy with this team for a long-long time. Maybe it’s just me because it’s painful at those times when the whole team can’t make decent contact and pain stays on the mind longer. I’m certain all of us visits the same feelings.
Quas
Your right, sometimes we do make so so pitching look better then it really is.
I guess that last blow out game against the Padres, is what made me a little worried about the quality of pitching we will face in our division, this year.
And it reminded me of a lot of games we played last year, in between the long droughts of hitting, like you talked about.
I think those great disparities in our hitting, is why some said they didn’t find last’s year’s team, fun to watch.
Because once a game is over by the 5th inning, those type of games are not that fun to watch, unless it is against a team like the Cardinals.
And those other type of games drag on, especially when it takes 7 innings before anyone can put a couple hits together, or get a hit when runners are in scoring position.
But I have seen some improvement this year, so I hope we will see more consistency in our offense this year.
I guess it is only a few of the players that I don’t see to much of an adjustment with, up to now, that concerns me.
Because Turner and Corey can’t do it all, because pitchers will pitch around them.
The 3 and 5 hit games are all too common for the Dodgers. This does make for boring viewing and I’ve been complaining for 3 years about it. Somehow, their pitching has always carried them through, and the last few games, we’ve seen excellent Dodger pitching including the minor leaguers. But it’s a little hard for me to get excited by a game dominated by pitching with no hitting. Those SO’s don’t stir my blood like a HR or base hit with RISP. What to do? Since it’s ST, I won’t dwell on it very much. The main thing right now is the auditioning and the in-game conditioning that the players are getting. If it continues into the regular season, you will be hearing my shouts, folks. lol
MJ, thanks, but unfortunately for me, my tax season takes me into the summer. Hopefully this is my last long year. I am looking to slow waaaaaaay down after this year. I was hoping to get to ST this year, but just could not find the time. Next year, and I want to spend at least a week. So MJ, I expect you to push me to get to ST next year. Don’t accept any excuses from me.
I have not had much of a chance to read much of today’s writing, as I am in between events. I started with a 5K run for terminally ill children, to be followed by a Little League baseball game, to be followed by a soccer match, and finally tonight a track meet. Fortunately, I only have to participate in the 5K run. My grandson keeps me busy.
AC
Just reading everything you have done today, and still have to do, makes me tired.
It sounds like your grandson is going to make you even busier, once you retire.
But I know you love that!
And with the bad knees you have, I am impressed that you are participating in that 5K.
But enough said, Thanks for taking the time from your busy schedule, to respond to me.
I hope you have a great day with your grandson.
And I will hold you to that!
After 3 shutout innings today, Tony Gonsolin’s spring line is:
9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 6 K, 2 BB.
It’s not likely that he makes the team, but if he did, he has the stats to justify it. But, he won’t go back to AA. At the very least, it’s AAA. This dude is ready!
He’s very close. On a worse team, he’d be up already. Huge fan. May isn’t far behind.
Just back from the game. Not much action if you are looking for runs but our pitching looked good. Gonsolin was a bit shaken in the first two innings but settled in in the third. He does look good he was wild low all day but Barnes did a good job of keeping the ball in front of him. He got Gonsolin out of a jam in the first with a nice block on a low pitch and a good throw to third, otherwise he might have given up his first run
Pitchers a way ahead of the hitters right now. Kershaw looked good throwing in warmups before the game. He threw with ease and was throwing hard.
Tomorrow we go on a tour of the facilities and a meet and greet with Dave roberts
give us a full report.
Go Ducks!