The Dodgers are one of the Top Three wealthiest organizations in baseball. They rake in huge attendance money, immense concession money and have one of the most lucrative TV deals in baseball (nevermind that many fans can’t see them in LA – that’s on the cable idiots). Until this year, for the past 5 years, the Dodgers’ payroll has been at the TOP of all MLB teams. Depending upon how and who calculates it, the Dodgers finished 2018 either #4, #5 or #6 in payroll. They are now loathe to go over the luxury tax. Although that is likely, I do not think it is a “hard and fast” rule. If at the trade deadline in 2019, they needed to go over it by a few million, I think they would.
Then we have the matter that people are leaving the Dodger Organization: Farhan Zaidi, Chris Woodward, Turner Ward, Luis Ortiz, Danny Lehman, Ehsan Bokhari and Doug Fearing, and have left the organization. On top of that, there are rumors and smoke of in-fighting within the front office and some shareholders of Guggenheim & Company are revolting and others are filing suit. To top it all off, the US Department of Justice is investigating the Dodgers business practices in several foreign countries. Is the Dodger ship sinking? Is this the beginning of the end?
The very short answer is “NO!” The fact that coaches and front office personnel are leaving is the result of their success as other teams are poaching them for higher-paying positions within their organizations. Guys like Zaidi, Woodward, Ortiz, Lehman, Bokhari and Fearing are all taking advanced, higher-paying positions. Luring away these people is not an indictment upon the Dodgers, but rather evidence that the competition is trying to be like them. Imitation is an obvious form of flattery. The Dodgers’ front office is very healthy. Raul Ibanez has refused to interview for other jobs on several occassions. Turner Ward left for other reasons. We may never know why, but I have a feeling it was a philisophical difference with the front office. There’s nothing sinister here, but I think there was some disagreement on certain hitting approaches. This is pure conjecture and I have no inside knowledge of it (although I may in the future).
I am certain that Andrew Friedman and the Front Office Staff are working feverishly behind the scenes on player acquisition and planning, but they are not going to make dope-fiend moves, like signing ANY Free Agent for over $200 Million. The fact that Friedman has never signed a player for over $50 million (other than the Dodgers’ own free agents) is very telling… and yet they have gotten to the World Series the past two years and won the NL West EVERY year since Friedman was hired!
OK, they haven’t won the big one, so undoubtedly Friedman will tweak his plan a little. You may see a change in philosophy, but as I have said before, this team doesn’t need much. Some people mock the way the Dodgers’ pen was built, but the Red Sox pen was built much the same way… on the cheap. In 2018, the Dodger Bullpen was 8th in MLB, while the Red Sox were 9th. In 2017, the Dodger Bullpen was #4, while the Astros were #17. In 2016, the Dodger Bullpen was #1. In Friedman’s first year, the pen was #19 and the year before it was #22. Yes, the pen could be better (everything could be better), but Friedman’s way of building the pen works. The evidence proves it – you can argue all you want, but Friedman’s bullpens are among the best, year-after-year!
I still think hitting is the issue, but I digress! The Dodgers are Healthy, Wealthy and Wise! No rats are jumping off the ship. The fact that so many people left the coaching and front office positions is a testament to the success of the organization and the high esteem that other organizations hold the Dodgers.
Let’s look at the Cubs for a minute, Theo was a genius until he started handing out big $100,000,000 plus deal to Heyward and Darvish. Those big deals can hamstring you. If you sign players for big bux, you better make sure you have the right guys. I would not sign Manny Machado, PERIOD! He has been average outside of Camden Yards. Bryce Harper? I would not go over $200 million. Pick your spots and pick your players carefully. Don’t get caught up in the bidding. That’s what Andrew Friedman is doing. I have no idea what he will do next, but I do know this: He will not overpay and the Dodgers will be below the Luxury Tax Threshold in 2019. I am fine with that.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The coaching staff wil be announced and there may be a new GM… or not! We will also find out if everyone gets tendered.
Rosscup & Goeddel released
Don’t worry Watford, Andrew will find more where they came from. The Dodgers never seem to run out of DFA or released relievers.
That’s exactly what I was thinking – there’s millions out there. Goeddel was very valuable early… not so much late.
Maybe once the starting pitcher market is established we can trade Wood. He will have value as a one-year cost-controlled option.
There was an Andrew Friedman interview on SportsNet yesterday and he hinted at a few things for the offseason. Here’s the summary.
Priority 1 is a catcher to pair with Barnes. He can’t count on Smith and Ruiz to be ready when the year starts.
Kike and Taylor are the leading second base candidates. Makes sense since Lux is so close.
He has too many outfielders. Someone will be traded.
Isn’t sure Seager will be ready to go 150+ games right out of the gate and thinks Kike / Taylor can fill in if necessary until he’s ready.
Big Splash in free agency can be coming, but doesn’t know if that will be this year or next.
A lot of payroll flexibility in 2019 and 2020.
He mentioned that they made a lot of money in the post-season with multiple revenue streams. Payroll is not an issue.
Coaching staff announcement is coming next week. He seems excited about the guy / guys he has lined up to replace the guys we lost.
He doesn’t necessarily like all the platoons. Hinted that he wants less / that is wasn’t intended.
So there you have it. You’re big sexy move this year will be a crappier catcher than Grandal unless something falls in their lap. It sounds like they’ll make a splash in free agency, but might wait until next year. Reading in between the lines is he’s in on the top guys this year, but won’t outbid other teams / do something stupid for them. Not, when Nolan is free to sign with them next year. He didn’t seemed concerned with the salary cap, but cares more about not being hamstrung by a crappy contract. It’s looks like he will go over when necessary, as long as he can get back under every couple of years or so.
Unless something unexpected happens, this is what it will look like like next year.
1B Muncy
2B Kike / Taylor
3B Turner
SS Seager
LF Kemp / Verdugo
CF Belli is the only outfielder that definitely won’t be dealt.
RF Puig
C Barnes / Someone on the market
Other assumptions:
Puig will not be traded unless someone knocks their socks off with an offer that will improve the team. The only way I can see this happening is for an Ace type SP or controllable dominant reliever.
Looks like Joc is the most likely to be traded to make room for Verdugo, Toles would be the backup plan / injury insurance.
Looks like they’re trying to make room for Verdugo in LF, I would imagine he’s the other half of the Kemp platoon.
Weird, that Friedman mentions too many outfielders, but not too many SPs.
Both Kike and Taylor will remain with the team. One will be the main second baseman and the other will be the super utility guy.
Thanks for the report 59.
I do think they’ll wait until next off-season to make some waves.
I do not get SportsNet so unfortunately I did not get to hear the interview. Thank you for sharing for those of us who do not get it.
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They will get a catcher, but who? JT Realmuto, Yan Gomes, or Martin Maldonado (or similar FA catcher)?
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I agree that they will spend of FA, AND it will be next year, as I postulated last week. Makes too much sense when next year’s group will be better and more contracts come off the books. They could spend $50MM and stay under the CBT threshold next year. They won’t, but they could.
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I am still waiting to see if the Dodgers will trade Joc or Verdugo. But if they keep Verdugo (my choice and my expectation), he will not be a platoon with Kemp. Kemp will be the RH bat off the bench.
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I do not think Friedman ever thinks he has too many SP.
Agreed about Boston’s bullpen. They were not very good and were built much like the Dodgers. The differences? The Dodgers did not have a JDM, or Mookie Betts. When Boston relievers (and starters) expanded the strike zone up, the Dodger hitters complied. Red Sox hitters were much more patient. And when Boston’s Ace needed to finally step up, he did. The Dodgers? Not so much. Boston had a manager that could see with his eyes when one of his pitchers was dealing and left him in. The Dodgers? Not so much. Boston had a manager that when he made a mistake by leaving Eduardo Rodriguez in, admitted as much. Doc? I may be wrong, but I have never heard him admit to a mistake. But he did throw Rich Hill under the bus, or at least that is how many of us took it.
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I have absolutely zero problem with the number of field and FO management leaving. I do not at all consider it a sign of a sinking ship…infighting or financial. It is healthy, and any organization that has its team in the WS is going to have poaching. It really is a positive acknowledgement that the organization is something to be patterned. We should worry if nobody wanted Dodgers management personnel. I would also like to see Raul Ibanez more involved. I think he could be a keeper.
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I have been on record stating that the Dodgers will not be in on Machado or Harper. I also do not think that they are necessarily the missing piece. They will not be in on Corbin or Keuchel or Donaldson. They will have lengthy discussions on Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer and Syndergaard. But it will take a haul that Andrew & Co. may not be willing to spend.
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I have no knowledge of the Dodgers financial position, and neither does anyone else. There is a lot of conjecture, but the Dodgers Baseball Ownership Group is not a public company and is not subject to public financial scrutiny. Forbes does a very good job at looking at the revenues/payroll/ and other estimated operating expenses and determining the value of any organization. But any internal finance issues are not going to be discussed. Of course there is that infamous leaked investor document. Billie Jean King and Llana Kloss did become investors (owners without any real decision making authority), and maybe they did invest based upon that leaked investor document. I still ask why the Dodgers needed that infusion of capital. Did Billie Jean and Llana want so much to be owners that Walter and other owners said yes because of what the name Billie Jean means throughout society and the sports community? Or did the Ownership Group need the capital and Billie Jean and Llana stepped up? Regardless as to the reason, were there restrictions on payroll as a basis for the infused capital? Again, something we will likely never know.
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Not having a GM will not hinder the Dodgers in any player personnel decisions. This will operate under the philosophy of Andrew Friedman, and Josh Byrnes is knowledgeable enough to do the groundwork for the decision to be made. What may be of interest is how might the team look different than when Zaidi was making decisions. Was he put on a leash by Andrew or did he have the autonomy most GMs need? My bellwether decision will be Joc or Verdugo? I do not see how both can co-exist. One has power while the other has bat to ball skills. If Joc and Puig are kept (entirely possible if not probable) then Alex MUST be traded or his value gets on the fast elevator going down.
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The fact that there has been an announcement that there will be an announcement on the coaching staff next week, somewhat tells me that the coaching additions have been made and that they will probably be internal. I can see Bill Haselman being named the 3rd base coach and Brant Brown the hitting instructor. Haselman makes a tremendous amount of sense since he is part of that 2004 Boston connection…Doc, George Lombard, and Bill Haselman. Brown has paid his minor league dues, and he is as much a possibility as other teams’ rejects.
I am with AC on this, we have no idea who the front office is going to trade, or who will be the starting leftfielder next year, other then Kemp.
And I wouldn’t assume Cody will be in center, and Muncy will be our starting first baseman yet either.
Remember Muncy can also play second adequately.
But this is the second time Friedman has made that comment about not over platooning, so maybe they learned from this mistake.
I am not surprised Friedman didn’t mention our starting pitching, because they have always had a lot of depth, when it comes to our starting pitching.
And we know about Kershaw’s and Ryu’s injury history.
But when it comes to our starting pitching, I wonder what they think about Stripling, and what was Stripling’s issue once he tried to come back, at the end of the season.
I just hope like Mark mentioned, that the luxury tax is not a hard line, not to spend over.
They have tried to get others to buy into the Dodgers, long before Billy Jean King did.
They did try to get some people or a company in Japan, to buy into the Dodgers, but I don’t know much beyond that.
AC, you are very level headed in your analysis. I totally agree that throwing Rich under the bus was a bad look for Doc. I’m hoping he’ll learn from it. I’m still optimistic that Doc learns and improves, especially with all the changes around him.
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I don’t think that bringing BJK in as an owner has more to do with finances than it has to do with making a statement and getting a diverse perspective into the organization. The inflow of new ownership capital, at today’s valuation of the organization, is a good financial move as it takes yet another bite out of the dept ratio. But, I don’t think it was something they had to do to keep the ship running, or accomplish their goals.
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I think Joc is the piece they want to move in order to give Verdugo a chance, but if they get something more valuable for Verdugo, then so be it.
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There’s some noise that the Dodgers are talking to the Indians a lot. It’s probably more about Gomes, but who knows, maybe it expands to include a pitcher. Kluber is a clear upgrade, and Carrasco and Bauer are better than Hill and Wood for sure. Not so sure about Ryu. I can’t really see them including two outfielders in a deal unless it’s Kemp and Joc. Maybe they’re thinking Maeda. I can’t see Kenta being in the rotation if we get one of the Indians SPs
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There also a lot of noise that they’re still in on Realmuto. Again, they are probably dangling Joc and Beaty. They certainly aren’t going to include Belli plus 1.
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This team is loaded and still very young. We don’t need much.
The Dodgers were looking for investors as far back as at least 2017. I do not disagree that Billie Jean brings in additional positives than just her money. She did not buy into the group until September 2018. I am not all that sure as so many on here want to believe that there were not liquidity issues. Again, why were they looking for investors if they did not need that cash infusion. And they were actively looking. There was no reason to further syndicate (and dilute) the ownership equity position. I have just seen too many otherwise strong companies have liquidity issues that needed to be remedied. I think the Dodgers were very fortunate to draw the interest of such a stalwart champion on multiple levels as Billie Jean King.
Ilana Kloss and Billie Jean King have a combined net worth of $31 million. Magic Johnson has a new worth over $500 million. Magic allegedly invested $50 million or 1/10 of his net worth. I would assume that Kloss and King are no more liquid than Johnson, so if they invested more than $3 million, I would be surprised (not shocked).
This team is loaded and still very young. We don’t need much.
True. But an IMPACT player is always needed. That’s clearly evidenced by our platooning our entire lineup sans JT and Manny (and next year Seager). That means we have talent, but not IMPACT talent. So no, there’s no need to tweak, or add depth. But there is a need to add frontline guys. Kluber/Thor/Realmuto/Harper are impact guys.
I really really like our staff, especially with Buehler and Ryu as the 1 and the 5. But if we can add a Thor or a Kluber??? Then holy hell, we’re all set for October! Or a guy like Diaz in the pen? Wow! Trade the surplus talent which is not impact (Joc, CT3 or Kike, Wood or Strip). No offense to those guys, but in our organization, those guys can be easily replaced.
Totally agree! They will invest in player payroll, when the time is right for impact talent. If Machado or Harper want to come and another team isn’t going to outbid them, I think there’s still a possibility. But, my guy is Nolan Arrenado. I don’t even need to talk about his stats or ability in the field. What I like most about him is his intensity and leadership qualities. My son played with his cousin quite a bit and played against his brother as well. So, I have a little home town / friend of a friend syndrome with him. Plus, he always kills us. It will be nice to not have to face him anymore.
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Any of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer would be awesome as well. There’s no such thing as too many aces.
AC I’m telling you the most secure players at this point is Taylor and Hernandez. One will play second, the other will step in at short until Seager is ready and the outfield as needed. I don’t think doc was trying to throw hill under the bus I think he was just explaining why he did what he did. But, having said that I think he should have just said, even though this is how it went down I screwed up and should have handled it differently. He is in charge it is his responsibility no matter what the results are. I don’t believe the dodgers will sign any big free agents or should they. As mark has said don’t make any dope fiends moves. I would like to know how the discussions with Cleveland are going. We certainly need to improve our offense and maybe that can be done by adding Seager and a philosophy change. But, our starting pitchers named ryu and Kershaw just didn’t do their job in the World Series. We have buehler but I think we need a strong number 2 come playoff time. Kluber or the like would be huge.
Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Mets are currently talking trade with the Indians and are going for Yan Gomes too. I suspect he’s going to be popular and that will drive the asking price up.
I still like the idea of at least spending a little money to sign a player like LeMahieu to man 2nd base for 2-3 years, especially since I believe that playing half your games at Coors contributes to problems on the road. Also, if I’m not mistaken, I believe that I read that LeMahieu hit more HRs on the road in 2018 than at home. But that being the case, I wouldn’t sign LeMahieu for his power, but rather because he’s been a consistently productive offensive and defensive player.
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As for Lux, I’m not worried about blocking him. First off, he’s not a sure thing, and secondly there is no rule that says he has to begin his ML career as an everyday regular. Why coukdn’t He break in as a part-time player who could flll-in at 2nd and/or 3B? Justin Turner needs days off on occasion, has been known to get injured on occasion, and isn’t getting any younger. And if it became an option, DJ LeMahieu would probably be a tradeable piece that could bring back some value.
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As for Kike’ and Taylor, both could play 2nd, and other positions, and both could be an important piece in a package that brings back an impact player in a deal. I would be careful about trying to read anything into what Andrew Friedman says about anything. If anything, he has a flexible mind, and just about anything is possible.
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Mark, I understand that as talented as you are, you are not the technical genius behind this website. That being said, I was wondering if it wouldn’t be possible to add scroll bars to the Comment box to make it easier to scroll up and down when posting from a phone, something I’ve been doing lately, more times than not.
Possibly even an edit button?
I’ll check on that…
The biggest problem is security. The more features, the less security. Hackers love those things and I’m not just talking about this site. If you are on an unsecure site, they can hack you too.
Dude, Friedman said straight from his mouth that Taylor and Kike are the plan at second base. Lemehieu is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Gavin Lux is a big time prospect. He’s a first rounder. He would be coming up as a shortstop if it weren’t for Seager. He’s a 5 tool guy and he OPS’d over 900 as a twenty year old, playing about a third of the season in AA. He is as much of a sure thing as Bellinger was and is. He’s not going to come up as a part time player. He is not going to fill in for Turner, that’s why they signed Freese. Like Verdugo, and all other top prospects, they come up when they can take a position from someone.
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There were only 4 second basemen that OPS’s higher than Kike last year. There were only 7 that OPS’d higher than Taylor. Lemehieu was not one of them, and he played half his games at Coors. You are correct that anything can change on a dime, but he said what his plan was and it includes BOTH Kike and Taylor. There is zero chance that Lemehieu is a Dodger next year.
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Second Base is the same as Catcher in the sense that they aren’t going to do anything that blocks Ruiz and Smith. The difference is catchers don’t play full time, you always need two catchers. That said, they can get someone on a 2 year deal without blocking Smith or Ruiz because you can always bump Barnes. Catcher is their focus, they don’t need a second baseman and they don’t need two utility guys. It makes perfect sense that the better one plays second base and the other one is the utility guy. You can flip them back and forth based on who’s hot as well. On top of that, Muncy is a third option if they move pieces around, but it’s most likely that they can see his defense is nowhere close to Taylor or Kike.
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Beyond catcher, they need a late inning reliever and they can improve the rotation with an ace or a legit number 2. A number three guy probably isn’t as good as Hill or Wood or Stripling. A number 2 guy might not even be as good a Bueller, Kershaw, Ryu, or Urias. There really isn’t a ton of room to improve the rotation unless you get an ace.
Now who knows, I agree with you that maybe they can trade for an impact player and if they’re insisting on Kike or Taylor as part of the deal, they might trade one. I also agree that Friedman has a flexible mind and just about anything is possible. Now, that impact player better be an ace, an outfielder, or a catcher that’s better than all the ones we have. Otherwise, it isn’t worth weakening the utility guy or second base positions IMO.
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Why don’t you check out their OPSes, when runners are in scoring position, or even their averages?
Because “in scoring position” fluctuate highly year to year like defensive stats. I don’t think they’re very reliable. OPS is generally accepted as the go to stat for judging offensive performance.
People are talking about trading Kike or CT3: Quick, tell me who can play the number of positions they do… and play them well?
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Compare stats and get back to me. The list is very short and Friedman is not prone to dope-fiend moves. I would be shocked if either player was traded… unless the Dodgers were overwhelmed.
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On Chicken Strip: So many people just look at “What have you done for me lately?” Before the All-Star Game, Strip was pitching nearly as good as Jacob deGrom with an 8-2 record and a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. In the second half he went 0-4 with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. Some want to trade for deGrom. Why do that when you have Stripling? There was nothing wrong with him physically. He hadn’t lost his stuff. We found out recently that he was tipping his pitches in several ways and the Dodgers essentially shut him down to fix that.
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Ross could be a very valuable part of the rotation or as a swingman next year. I expect BIG THINGS from Ross next year!
Yes Chicken Strip could very well be an important cog in the Dodger Machine in 2019. I actually expect him to be, because I do not expect a lot of moves. But who would you rather have on your 25 man roster…Corey Kluber/Noah Syndergaard or Ross Stripling. We are not talking about Matt Harvey here.
I would take Kluber over him, but not Syndergaard. I think his arm is due to fall off. I am also worried about Kluber. Kluber has lots of innings and looked gassed at the end of the year. What do I have to give up to get Kluber is the question? Kluber and Gomes? Wood, Pederson, Barnes and Santana?
What you are saying about Kluber is what you said about Verlander.
That is not quite correct. I thought Verlander was done. I think Kluber could be heading that direction, but I get your drift! 😉
By September and into the Playoffs Belli was being platooned. Puig was also platooned but not as much as Belli or Joc. One way to reduce the platooning is to trade Joc and put Verdugo in LF but that should mean Kemp sits more.
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My preference would be to add two power righty bats but maybe one would do. The goal is to protect the weaker lefty bats against lefty pitchers but not lose the strong lefty bats that play 70% of the time due to righty pitchers pitching 70% of the time.
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There is no reason to keep Puig for 2019 only to lose him in 2020. If the Dodgers can’t extend him at least through 2021, he is the outfielder that should be traded. My prediction is that Puig will be traded and most of the outfield innings will be shared by Pederson, Verdugo, Taylor, and Bellinger although I would also trade Muncy and put Bellinger at first and add Toles to the outfield mix.
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The Dodgers big decision is whether to trade for Segura, Realmuto, Goldschmidt, Syndergaard, or to sign Machado and make room for his payroll by trading Hill, Wood, and Puig.
There is a liklihood of any of that happening except Goldschmidt and Machado. There’s 100% chance neither one comes to LA!
I accept those probability stats Bob but looking down the road, the Dodgers need help. Turner is aging and Seager is represented by Boras. Who replaces them?
Friedman might break the bank on Seager and maybe C. Santana at 3B, or Beaty, or Arenado next year
Would love Arenado more than any other player other than Trout.
He is a magician at 3B
Mark, AC or DC realistically what would it take to get Kluber and is it even necessary?
I am a little different than Mark. They need a RH hitting OF. Plus the right side of their infield and DH have one year remaining. The know they can compete in a weak AL Central, and they are willing to trade one of their pitchers if they can get that RH bat for the OF. I would insist that Gomes be included, and I think it would take Puig, Muncy, Wood, and Farmer to get the conversation started.
I think it’s all about MLB ready prospects. They would ask for May and White and another plus maybe Wood
Seems like a lot more than the Yankees paid for Paxton.
Kluber is a two time CY winner, and was 3rd twice (including last year). Paxton has not got a vote. I would sincerely hope that the Yankees would pay less for Paxton. Kluber is RHP which the Dodgers would prefer over the LHP Paxton. The Yankees prefer a LHSP in their stadium. Those factors matter in what a team is willing to spend.
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Some fear that Kluber may be getting a bit “tired” at 33. But that is what people said about Verlander. Kluber only has one guaranteed year on his contract, and if he does not work out, then they buyout is reasonable. Not all trades work, and all are a gamble. But I would take Kluber with Gomes and would be willing to pay for them. Buehler/Kershaw/Kluber/Hill/Ryu. Name me a better rotation in all of MLB.
Thank you guys. I really appreciate it.
Nobody knows anything.
I do know that I don’t know anything, so there is that!
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But, I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!