In the United Kingdom, the “sophomore slump” is more commonly referred to as “second year blues”. A sophomore jinx is the popularly held belief that after a successful rookie season, a player in his second year will be jinxed and not have the same success. Most players suffer the “sophomore jinx” simply because scouting reports on the former rookie are now available and his weaknesses are known around the league. Many players have suffered the sophmore jinx. Let’s look at a few:
- As a rookie, he hit .274 with a .356 OB% and a .828 OPS but slumped to a .236 BA with a .326 OB% and a .736 OPS in his second year. He went on to be Willie Mays!
- As a rookie, he hit .293 with a .370 OB% and a .909 OPS. He then dropped to .246/.309 and .750 in his second year. Carlton Fisk was his name.
In 2005, Fangraphs wrote:
The “sophomore slump” is a cliche at this point and there are far more complicated (and mathematical) reasons for it occuring than the nickname suggests. At the same time, the fact is that it is “real” in the sense that the majority of Rookie of the Year winners decline in their sophomore seasons.
There are lots of reasons why players experience a drop in production their second year in the league, just as there are lots of reasons why players have a good year followed by a bad year. Let’s get one thing straight: Playing the game of baseball at a high level, day-in-and-day-out is probably the most difficult thing to do in sports. Even a little edge means a lot. Adrian Beltre had his “career year” at age 25, when he hit 48 HR and OPS’ed 1.017. The very next year his OPS dropped 300 points! If I am not mistaken, he went on to have a Hall of Fame career.
Players ebb and flow. Things happen in their personal lives that carry over to on the field. “Well they are professionals, they shouldn’t let that affect them!” Well, they are also human! I think we sometimes forget that! Nobody plays the same every year, but the very greatest like Barry Bonds, Roberto Clemente and Hank Aaron are close every year. Even the greatest ones ebb and flow. In 1967 Roberto Clemente hit .357 with a .954 OPS and followed it up with a .291 BA and .838 OPS. Still good but not awesome. In Clementes case, it was his third year where he really had his “sophmore jinx.” In his second year he hit .311 but fell to .253 in his third. It would be 4 more years until he hit .300 again.
This game of baseball is very hard to play and in this age of sybermetrics where other team have volumes on information on each hitter and pitcher, weaknesses are easily exposed. Even the great ones have dips in their batting average of 60 to 70 points a year, which brings me to three Dodger players a lot of fans are ragging on relentlessly: Cody Bellinger, Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor. After watching a player for two years in the league, and you can determine they have had career years, you are either psychic (let’s talk numbers about the lottery) or are just predisposed to negative thinking (and that’s OK).
So many fans look at “what was” (last years’ stats), instead of what “will happen next year.” Chris Taylor’s OPS dropped 75 points in 2018. Austin Barnes and Cody Bellinger’s OPS dropped over 100 points. Does that mean that they have had their career year? While they all were not “technically” sophmores in 2018, it was their second “full” season in each case. Several times in his career Roberto Clemente’s OPS changed by 100 points, year-over-year.
Davey Lopes and Ron Cey had some wild swings in their OPS year-over-year. To assume that Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and Cody Bellinger won’t get better is not based upon empirical evidence. It’s an assumption based upon one’s own opinions and worldview. Cody and CT3 didn’t fall nearly as far as many think. They do need to “fix”their strikeouts somewhat, and we have heard from several sources that they are working on it. All three players are “high character” individuals and those kind of people are often relentless in their pursuit of improvement.
While, I can’t predict what each one will do next year, I have seen two years of each. I see their stats and their character, as well as their talent level. I’ll bet on talent and character every day. CT3 will not evolve into Ender Inciarte, not should he. CT3 had a .775 OPS last season compared to Inciarte’s .705. I used to want Ender, but what I would like to see is Bellinger at 1B and Taylor in CF. Belli may be a better CF… but not by much. He is however, one of the best first basemen in baseball. I want him there.
I do believe that Max Muncy is a candidate for regression, but how much? Can a platoon of Muncy and Kike works at 2B? As I said yesterday, I do not believe the Dodgers need much. Maybe it’s just a trade (or trades) of Wood, Maeda and Puig to stockpile more prospects….
Let me make a few predictions:
- 1B – Cody Bellinger: .270/32 HR
- 2B – Kike Hernandez/Max Muncy: .250/45 HR
- SS – Corey Seager: .290/23 HR
- 3B – Justin Turner: .315/30 HR
- LF – Matt Kemp/Joc Pederson: .265/35 HR
- CF – Chris Taylor: .270/22 HR
- RF – Alex Verdugo: .296/.359 OB%/11 HR
- C – Austin Barnes: .265/7 HR in 350 AB’s
Those aren’t even close to “career years.” The only thing the Dodgers still need is a catcher (Suzuki?)
Mark, I think you are right on regarding the position players that will get most of the at bats and innings and your guess as to their offensive performance is a good guess.
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I also agree that Muncy will continue to regress. As he gained confidence he stepped out of his successful approach to hitting. If he can get back to playing more like a guy that is trying to make the team and less like a player that thinks he is Yelich, he could bounce back.
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I also believe that players that were successful in the minor leagues and get to the MLB by age 24 are less likely to have a career year that comes out of no where and then again go back to being the player that had a hard time getting to the MLB. Both Taylor and Muncy struggled to get to the MLB. Trade high on both of them.
I at least shrugged.
R U Atlas?
Howard Roark laughed.
Ragnar Danneskjold:
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“It is said that [Robin Hood] fought against the looting rulers and returned the loot to those who had been robbed, but that is not the meaning of the legend which has survived. He is remembered, not as a champion of property, but as a champion of need, not as a defender of the robbed, but as a provider of the poor. He is held to be the first man who assumed a halo of virtue by practicing charity with wealth which he did not own, by giving away goods which he had not produced, by making others pay for the luxury of his pity. He is the man who became the symbol of the idea that need, not achievement, is the source of rights, that we don’t have to produce, only to want, that the earned does not belong to us, but the unearned does. He became a justification for every mediocrity who, unable to make his own living, has demanded the power to dispose of the property of his betters, by proclaiming his willingness to devote his life to his inferiors at the price of robbing his superiors. It is this foulest of creatures — the double-parasite who lives on the sores of the poor and the blood of the rich — whom men have come to regard as a moral ideal. And this has brought us to a world where the more a man produces, the closer he comes to the loss of all his rights, until, if his ability is great enough, he becomes a rightless creature delivered as prey to any claimant — while in order to be placed above rights, above principles, above morality, placed where anything is permitted to him, even plunder and murder, all a man has to do is be in need. Do you wonder why the world is collapsing around us? That is what I am fighting… Until men learn that of all human symbols, Robin Hood is the most immoral and the most contemptible, there will be no justice on earth and no way for mankind to survive.”
Friedman isn’t going to trade Puig for prospects. Friedman and Puig are both in their walk years so Puig is going to be on a mission to get paid, and Friedman is going to be on a mission to keep his job.
Puig gets traded only if the present team gets better for it, 2B or C.
I’m scared of the defense if Muncy plays 2B, unless he loses 30 lbs. Muncy is not a sure thing and the Freese signing screams Muncy / Freese at 1B and Justin Turner insurance. If Muncy regresses at the plate, Bellinger plays 1B and Verdugo plays CF. It’s far more likely that Verdugo cleans up the Pederson / Kemp mess in LF, than taking Puig’s job in RF.
Stop trading Puig, he’s in his walk year and might just pull an Adrian Beltre. (That would be a horrible look for an unemployed Friedman looking for a new gig.)
Stop handing Verdugo a job, he has to earn it.
Even if the Dodgers go 0-162 next year, the chances of Friedman looking for a new job are slim and none!
Mark, those are your predictions and you could very well be correct but I think if Kemp and Pederson platoon left, and both Taylor and Hernandez are starters the Dodgers may win the division but will not get back to the WS. I have said a few times that I consider both Taylor and Hernandez as super subs and I would trade one of them. Muncy is not a second baseman and not that good at first, he is a sub, or trade him.
Get rid of the Super Subs Hernandez, Taylor, Muncy, these type of players are and batting averages 240 250. The Dodgers need everyday players at each position and 1 Super Sub if you want to call him that. The Dodgers will never win a World Series with a different lineup every day not going to work I don’t care how you look at it or what you think.
Go look at the Red Sox and Astros lineups!
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A platoon player was the World Series MVP this year!
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Getting Seager back will help immensely.
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Boston platooned at 2B, 3B, C and 1B – Who says you can’t win with platoons?
If the Dodgers have no intention of bringing Puig back past this season then trade him now or at the deadline. However the team has a history of paying their own FA’s so it could be wait and see how he performs. He could very well crush it this year especially if he is not platooned.
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Muncy would have been 5th in OPS in all of baseball if he had a few dozen more PA’s. He was behind only Betts, JD, Trout and Yelich and put up a 5.2 WAR! His line was .263-.391-.582 with 35 HR’s, 79 RBI’s, 131 K’s and 79 BB’s. He was exposed by a steady diet of breaking balls in the post season and was below average on defense but can hit anyone’s fastball. Give him 100 GB’s a day and work on breaking balls all offseason and get his bat in the lineup! He hits LHP too!
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Most on here want to trade the 2 guys everyone will be asking for-I don’t get it! The team has an excess of mediocre SP, platoon type OF’s, super utility types and AAAA prospects to dangle, start there please. There are very few untouchables in my mind that could not be dealt for the right return but a blockbuster trade is not in the teams DNA. They need a stopgap C, a setup guy and figure out 2B and the OF. A true front line starter would be nice in the playoffs too.
I never said you could not win with the platoon players, I said you could not win with a different lineup every day. An occasional day off for a starting player is okay what were the batting averages of the Boston players you talk about that were platoon players.
2nd and 3rd:
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Brock Holt – .277/.362/.411/.774
Eduardo Nunez – .265/.289/.388/.677
Rafael Devers – .240/.298/.433/.731 (3rd base only and not a very good one defensively)
Ian Kinsler – .242/.294/.311/.604 (After trade deadline – 2nd only)
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1B
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Mitch Moreland – .245/.325/.433/.758
Hanley Ramirez – .254/.313/.395/.708
Steve Pearce – .279/.394/.507/.901 (After trade deadline)
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C
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Christian Vazquez – .207/.257/.283/.540
Blake Swihart – .229/.285/.328/.613
Sandy Leon – .177/.232/.279/.511
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Of course the Red Sox also had MVP Mookie Betts – .346/.438/.640/1.078, and
JDM – .330/.402/.629/1.0310.
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Their trade deadline pickups of Steve Pearce and Ian Kinsler were more productive than the Dodgers trade deadline pickups of Machado and Dozier. And considering that JDM had a larger positive impact than Scott Alexander, it appears that Dave Dombrowski had a better year than Farhan Zaidi.
Again, “Dodgerfan” go look at the facts. The Dodgers and Red Sox changed their lineups just as much as the Dodgers, if not more.
Austin Barnes (12/28/89); Max Muncy (8/25/90); CT3 (8/29/90). What do all of these guys have in common? They are all 28+ and have only 1-2 years significant MLB experience. That means they all came to the Show later in their career. There is a reason that they all burst onto the scene late in their professional careers.
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Mark is 100% correct in describing baseball as a very hard game to play. It is!!! Which is why I get defensive when wannabe’s without any ability describe players as trash (and that is a good term used by many). Fortunately, that does not describe anyone that I can remember on this site. Very respectful and knowledgeable group. We all have favorites. Some of us are obnoxious with our desire to talk positively about them. Me with Alex Wood, Mark with Yasmani Grandal, MJ with Toles, and of course Bums with Joc. And yes, I know it is the internet and disparaging remarks are not only welcome they are encouraged by many sites.
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But back to the premise. Barnes, Muncy, and CT3 are not your usual “sophomores”. They have been platoon or utility type players their entire MLB career. To “want” them to return to their 2017 production is fine. But to expect them to, is not how one should properly plan. We all want our favorites (Dodgers in total) to have career years every year, but the organizational hierarchy cannot assume that they will. They need to continuously look to improve. Outside of the return of Seager, a replacement of Verdugo for Puig, and Austin Barnes now starting with a yet unknown 2nd catcher, you have the same players that have not been able to win the final game of the season. Another year of regression from Kershaw? There is no starting pitcher you can count on to go 162 IP. The closest we can expect is Buehler. Which means that the bullpen needs to be dominant, and it has not been. Everybody keeps telling me that we cannot count on Seager even returning to play SS, but we can expect him to hit .290 with 23 HRs? Eliminating Puig for Verdugo is an improvement? I am not passing judgement. I am just asking. Why not put Verdugo in left, trade Joc and put Kemp on the bench? Do you really think that Joc/Kemp is better than Puig offensively or defensively? Again, just asking. I know Bums thinks that Puig is going to run over every position player not wearing catchers gear, so that will figure into somebody’s assumptions.
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With respect to Ender/CT3 comparisons. The difference in their OPS is primarily due to slugging. CT3 will always have a higher slugging % than Ender. That is important if we are talking about a corner OF, but we are talking about a CF. Again, at the risk of today’s game passing me by, I am still convinced that you win games by being strong defensively up the middle. Defensively CT3 has a DRS of -4 and a UZR of -4.3, while Ender has a DRS of 11 and a UZR of 7.2. Now recognizing that defensive metrics are not always good comparatives when close. But in this case, we are not talking close. Is there any doubt in anyone’s mind that Inciarte is a far better defensive CF than CT3? If that is not important for you, then perhaps CT3 is a better option. I go with defense which is why I would rather have Inciarte in CF and LeMahieu at 2B. But for those that only think that current Dodgers can play well, then CT3 and Kike’ are the best alternatives.
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Mark wrote “To assume that Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and Cody Bellinger won’t get better is not based upon empirical evidence. It’s an assumption based upon one’s own opinions and worldview.” Absolutely correct…as it is for Andrew Friedman and any other player personnel decision maker. That is how plans are made…a series of assumptions. But to assume that they will all produce at your stated numbers is also based upon one’s own opinions and worldview. If you are comparing a player who had one bad year out of 5 compared to one bad year out of 2, who do you think is more likely to have a bounce back year? I am betting on the player who had more good years than the player with one, who also came up late in his career.
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I want to reiterate what I stated yesterday (and or the day before…). I think both CT3 and Kike’ are very good to get to the level where they should be considered one of the 5 best utility players in all of MLB. Austin Barnes has been a tremendous asset as a backup catcher, at the ML level. All good players to make it to the pinnacle of professional baseball. But are they the best options to win a WS. I think the Dodgers can be better. Whether they will or not, is why they play the games.
I like Enciarte as a full time CF, he lacks power but stole 28 bags last year, perfect as a leadoff guy the team has lacked. He hit .265 last year but is .289 lifetime, struck out 86 times against 49 walks. The team has the pieces to easily trade for him and he has a good contract: next 3 years are $5 M, $7 M and $8 M with a team option or buy out of $1.25 M in 2022. Cody could move to 1B and the defense is improved in 2 places.
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My only problem with LeMahieu is what to do with Kike, CT3 and Muncy the internal options for the position. He is going to hit, he always has and his defense is very good. Adding 2 contact type guys who play plus defense would change the team a lot for the better. It will be interesting to see how the team approaches these areas. To a lessor extent DJ could block Lux but it is hard to say where he plays and when. The team needs to win now with their payroll limitations and window of opportunity.
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The Giants may go full rebuild, the DBacks may as well and the Pads are a year or 2 away from serious contention. Only the Rockies are realistic competition and they don’t have the pitching. The team needs to take a more aggressive approach to the post season and decide where to fish or cut bait. The fans are watching closely!
Use some of those guys to deal for Segura. A better option than Enciarte and DJ put together. Get Segura and Harper then you can plug in just about anyone at catcher.
I like Segura, not Harper so much, strictly what he will cost. Speculation was the Nats had no opt outs in their 10 year $300 M offer that was declined and Boras wanted 2 options. I could see a front loaded contract with a year 3 and year 7 opt out but they will be over the threshold at least one season until Kemp, Ryu and Hill drop off in 2020. Harper may be the only splash big enough to quiet the fans if the team really cares about that. They will at least be in the discussions.
If (BIG IF) they can get Segura, then I am on board. I do not believe you can get Segura with any of the Barnes/CT3/Kike’ type players. The Mariners need to unload salaries, so Puig/Wood are out. They need a CF more than anything other than controllable pitching. It is going to cost Verdugo and May (or Lux). For some that would be a fair price. I am not in that group. I can see Brock Stewart going to the Ms for a low level lottery pick.
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Hawkeye I know you are on the Bryce Harper bandwagon. I am assuming you do not believe the FO when they say they are staying under the luxury tax for the next four years. I believe they mean it. We will know in the next 4 months.
The Dodgers are now $7MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, and that is before Maeda’s incentives. Harper is going to sign for an AAV of $32MM +. He is actually looking at $35MM + to surpass Greinke, but will not go below Miggy Cabrera’s $31MM. Even if the Dodgers unload Puig/Wood/Joc/Kike’ or CT3, they cannot get enough relief to get under what Harper (Boras) will demand. This is as much about Boras as it is about Harper. Boras is still bitter about JDM.
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“We’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it,” owner John Middleton told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale at the MLB Owners Meetings.” $70MM committed in 2019, $50MM in 2020, and $15MM in 2021. The Phillies are going to go all in on Harper. There is no doubt in mind that Harper will get closer to the $400MM than to the $200MM some on here are projecting. If Middleton is going to spend stupid, the Dodgers have NO CHANCE. Even if they had one before. It appears that the ChiSox will also be outbidding the Dodgers as they are planning to go big on Harper. NYY will stay in it just to drive up the price, but they are going all in on Machado.
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The Dodgers will not get a game changing FA player. The only way they will get a game changer is through a trade.
That’s my reason to trade Wood, Maeda and Puig!
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That could be $30 million in salaries (with incentatives).
I’ve begun thinking that the answer to the “will we spend on free agents?” question can be found in our actions on the contracts of Freese & Kershaw (and possibly Roberts). Fiscal responsibility is the game.
Quackenbush is a name changer, so close.
I don’t know if I believe it or not. I think it’s lame and they will take a lot of heat for it if it’s true. They lead the league in attendance, have the biggest tv deal in baseball, plus their share of streaming money, Fox money, and mlb TV money. The luxury tax shouldn’t be an issue.
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Two great players in their prime on the market. Switching Machado for Seager isn’t enough.
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I don’t think Taylor or Kike are the center of trades but could be moved as a piece of a deal. I’m not sure Seattle should be tearing down or will. They’re stuck with Cano and have enough pieces to be next year’s Oakland.
When I read Mark’s comments earlier this morning, I found areas of agreement, and also areas that made me scratch my head.
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I won’t scroll back up and address every point. But a few things.
1. Yes, I have no doubt that CT3 might make adjustments, but I’m not sure that he can be successful with his approach at the plate. Maybe he’ll improve, but maybe also the opposition will further exploit his weaknesses. No way to know.
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2. Pretty much the same for Barnes. He probably should figure in their plans, but not as the starter.
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3. 45 HRs between Kike’ and Muncy. Maybe, if they’re in the lineup at the same time pretty often. Not only if that is only production at 2nd base. Mark’s not stupid, so I assume it’s the former.
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4. 30 HRs for Justin Turner. Not likely as I see it, especially since his career high was 27 in 2016.
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5. And this isn’t criticism of Mark’s prognostication, but if he’s healthy, I think Seager is ultimately (not necessarily in 2019) capable of 30-40 HRs.
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Otherwise, I prefer holding onto Puig ( unless he brings back a king’s ransom) in a trade. And I also, like AC would love the Dodgers to pursue DJ LeMahieu. In fact, for the most part I agree with what AC said above.
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I liked Inciarte when he played for Arizona, but haven’t seen him enough since then. And although I would prefer that the Dodgers sign Harper, I don’t know that that’s going to happen (probably won’t). In any case, I think that I would like an outfield consisting
of Verdugo (LF), Inciarte (CF), and Puig (LF).
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Too many variables at this point to predict anything. Trades and free agency will likely change the picture. All we can do is wait for stuff to happen, because it will.
For 2019 the Dodgers will continue to platoon players sure they will win the West but that’s as far as they will go they will get bumped out the first round.
Zaidi was a big fan of platoons. Friedman? Not so much!
I forget who advised me (not seriously, I think) about an edit button on this site. However, I’m certain that everyone here can decipher my errors in my above comments. Anyone who can’t is probably a Midgets fan. 🙂
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Posting is easier on a computer as opposed to my iPhone.
Lots of takes this morning. I think that our host is goading me specifically after my comments that many Dodgers had career years in 2017. This is not a new thought for me – I suggested that the Braintrust was banking on more career seasons in 2018 in May as I recall.
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AC has stolen my thunder a bit. The thing about guys like Taylor and Barnes is that they were never that good until 2017 and that, unlike Bellinger who hit the big time at age 21, their big seasons occurred relatively late. That’s why you have to wonder whether 2017 is an outlier. There have been many players, some of them really good, who have had one unbelievable year. Consider Brady Anderson, who had a nice long career and played really well. But in 1996, he hit .297/.396/.637/1.034 with 50 HR. His next best season for HR was 24 and for OPS was .881. His 162 game average for HR was 19 and for OPS was .787. So – he had one great year. There are several examples of this in baseball history (and in Anderson’s case I have heard rumors of steroids in ’96).
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I do not say that Bellinger won’t adjust and be a much better hitter at some point than he was in 2018 – he has youth and pedigree on his side. You can’t say that about either Taylor or Barnes. I know that some guys are late bloomers and that Taylor retooled his swing and all of that, but neither of them have histories that suggest a return to 2017 levels of productivity. The same is true of Alex Wood.
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I don’t see Muncy as a legit 2B. He can play there in a pinch but the Dodgers’ defense will suffer if he is the regular 2B. Kike and Taylor can play the position but in my view, a utility guy’s limitations are frequently unmasked by regular at bats. Will they perform better or worse with more AB?
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Where did Mark get his inside information that Zaidi likes platoons but Friedman doesn’t?
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I agree with AC – in a weaker NL West, the Dodgers have enough ammo to win the division. But enough to get to the Series, let alone win it? I don’t see teams like the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox standing pat. I doubt that the Cubs stand pat either. The Dodgers stood pretty pat last year (I know – there were roster changes but the same guys took the field most days and mostly the Dodgers used the same guys in the rotation unless there were injuries. The ‘pen changed a lot and after the deadline, there were deals made) and it appears that is their intention again this year. I expect further regression from the 2017 perihelion unless changes are made.
It’s not inside information. It’s from interviews.
My top 5 positional prospects:
1. Lux
2. Ruiz
3. Verdugo
4. Smith
5. Peters
& Pitchers:
1. May
2. Santana
3. Gonsolin
4. White
5. Uceta
Very exciting time to be a prospect hound. While a few of our big names have lost some luster (Alvarez, Kendall, Heredia), we have a huge group of guys ready to take a big leap forward (C. Santana, Vargas, Jimenez) as well as recent draftees who have yet to establish themselves (Grove) and a whole herd of catchers (Wong, Cartaya) too.
I think we’re solid enough to hang onto most of them and still success. After the near misses of the last two years I’m ok with a slow reload until we are firmly the best. All I would spend this off-season in capital is money.
Before this year, Javier Baez could be easily had on pitches outside the zone, especially breaking pitches low and away, and everyone knew it. What happened this year is he layed off bad pitches outside the zone and was fighting off pitchers’ pitches on two strikes within the zone . Before 2017, Cubs fans were saying a lot of the same things Dodger fans are saying about Taylor. I’m standing on what I said about Taylor. Many times, guys who can play multiple positions are labeled “utilityman”… unfairly!
Baez (at 25) did not solve all of the swing and miss problems. He struck out 167 times. Baez hit .290/.326/.554/.881, with 34 HR,111 RBI, and 40 doubles. CT3 (at 27) struck out 178 times, and hit .254/.331/.444/.775, 17 HR, 63 RBI, and 35 doubles. The higher OBP was due to 55 BB for CT3 and 29 for Baez. Baez had nearly 50 RBIs more than CT3, and that is with relatively down years for Bryant and Rizzo. Baez swings at a lot of bad balls, but he is a notorious bad ball hitter, and his 111 RBIs can attest to that. I doubt that Baez looked at too many called third strikes right down the middle. We cannot say the same thing for CT3. Baez is also a superior defensive player. I cannot think of too many (if any) GMs who would take CT3 over Javy Baez. I am not saying that you would prefer CT3 over Baez, but you did make the comparison.
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I see nothing wrong at all with being considered a utility player. Every team should have one. But JUST ONE.
Sorry to jump in here but I don’t see the problem with having multiple utility players. (FTR, I consider Barnes a bit of a utility player too but with the added responsibility of also being a part-time catcher.) Assuming we have a fairly strict platoon in LF (Kemp/Joc] and 1B [Muncy/Freese], that leaves two bench spots for the best & most versatile guys we have. Why not Taylor & Keekay? In my opinion, creating a false sense of urgency by forcing ourselves to trade one of them–and they are both reasonably priced by baseball standards–could result in disaster, especially if/when an injury happens and we’re not adequately covered. For example, when Seager went down, I thought that really showed Taylor’s true value in handling the position.
FAZ liked CT3 at SS so much, they went out and traded for Machado.
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If you have players who had years like Mookie Betts and JDM, you can afford to have surplus utility players. The Dodgers are nowhere close to having any player put up those numbers.
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Your platoon of Joc/Kemp (LF), and Muncy/Freese (1B) puts Kike’ or CT3 at 2B, Seager at SS, JT at 3B, Belli in CF, and Puig in RF. That leaves only a backup catcher for Barnes, and no place for Verdugo. I do not see how this team is an improvement over either of the last two years that did not win the WS. If your goal is to win a 7th consecutive NL West, it may be enough to beat the Rockies, but this team does not even get to the WS with the upgrades planned by the Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals. Maybe not even to the NLCS.
All good points. I’m not sure at all what this F.O. intends to do other than a slow rebuild that maybe caught fire a year or two early and should’ve resulted in a ring. Clearly if winning it all was the game plan they’d pay Harper and he’d likely be rewarded with a decade of offensive performance that, even if overpriced, would bring fan excitement and the promise of a World Championship.
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But since they appear inclined to count every cent, I’m now expecting a slow composting of talent until the next core turns over and grows into a winner. It’s probably just as likely to be successful but it seems the fans of this franchise deserve more. Here is there chance. No need to trade prospects. No players blocked. Just adding one of the true impact players in the sport. He’d sign, too, on the line that is dotted. But instead we get to argue about bench players and back-up catchers.
You hit the nail on the head. This is the whole problem.
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One answer to the problem is Mark’s answer – everyone will just play better. If you don’t believe that will happen, then you have to change the roster. That will take $$ (free agents) or the willingness to trade prospects or controllable talent. Will the Dodgers do either of those?
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I doubt that they will pay big $$ to sign free agents – this management group hasn’t yet except to sign their own free agents. So who gets traded and for whom? Or do they stand pat again?
My thoughts. Put Bellinger at first and play him every day. Seager and Turner play every day. Puig in right, Verdugo in center and Toles/Kemp in left. Must find a second baseman and catcher. Kike and CT3 are one and the same. Trade one. Trade Joc and Muncey.
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Starting pitching is fine. Keep six starters in case of injuries. Kershaw, Beuhler, Hill, Maeda, Wood and Urias, there are enough good young starting pitchers to not worry. I would trade Stripling and Stewart. Let the starters go as far as possible. Do not take them out after the second time through the line up.
Bull pen-Jansen, Baez, yes Baez, Ferguson, and.Santana. Find three from Rosscup, Cingrani, Koehler, Fields, Floro, Alexander, Chargois, Goodell, and Garcia, I am a firm believer the bull pen must be much stronger than last year.
That is what I would look at for 2019.
Top Five Most Likely to Be Traded Dodgers:
1. Toles–People keep saying he might be able to take Joc’s job but do we really expect him to occupy the dominant half of a LF platoon? The writing’s on the wall. We don’t think he’s a big leaguer. Trade him for a bullpen flyer while he still has some value left. Thank U, Next.
2. Wood–Simply not needed with Ryu re-signing, Urias back, and even Ferguson in the picture. We didn’t trust him to start in the playoffs and relieving didn’t sit well with him. For a team that wants a one-year rotation piece he has decent value and we can probably get a major league piece back for him, maybe even a starting 2b.
3. Kemp–He rehabilitated his name but he remains severely limited physically. He almost disappeared in the playoffs. He can still hit and is a positive clubhouse presence. Here’s hoping an AL team with DH needs opts for him over other names and kicks in enough cash to make it worth our while. Probably a straight salary dump deal is the best case scenario with 5-7 mil coming back our way.
4. Stripling–What a piece of work is man, How noble in reason, How infinite in faculty, In form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an angel, In apprehension how like a god, the beauty of the world, The paragon of animals. Top ten starter, all-star reliever, left of the roster, playoff imposter. No doubt the financial advisement he provides doth increase his worth. But as a real piece on the board what is he? Tradeth him for a sonnet and let him be gonneth. (Challenge trade to Reds for late-inning reliever.)
5. Edwin Rios–Just think how many things would have to go wrong for him to break camp. Like Verdugo he has little to prove in the minors. He’s also a LH which seem to have plenty of. Connor Joe might’ve passed him yet Rios still maintains a fairly lofty prospect profile. Trade him for another prospect. Anyone really. I’ll be rooting for him to succeed.
I would like an infield of Gleyber Torres, Turner, Machado, and Seager and they can be moved around the infield should Seager have to play first base or third base. With apologies to those who love Bellinger, the only way to get Torres is to trade Bellinger to the Yankees. Crazy? Yes, but that is what I do.
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Taylor, Belliger, Wood , and Hill for Torres and one of Yanks top 3 prospects. Someone else can figure out the other players that would be moved to make that trade. Including Hill and Wood is step one to free up $$ for Machado.
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Puig would be included in a trade for Realmuto.
Mattingly + Puig = Problems
Gleyber Torres is about as untouchable as there is in MLB. He cannot become a FA until 2025. That is five additional years of NYY control. And you truly believe that NYY will trade him AND a top 3 prospect for 2 one and done pitchers, a utility player, and Cody Bellinger? You do recognize that Torres and Belli had almost identical numbers in 2018. Torres – .271/.340/.480/.820, 24 HR, 77 RBI. Belli hit .260/.343/.470/.814, 25 HR, 76 RBI. Belli struck out at a 23.9% rate, while Torres struck out at a 25.2% rate. I do not know how many ways Machado can say it. He wants to go to a team to play SS. He will consider 3B for one team…NYY. He is an East Coast guy. He is not coming to the West Coast. It is no longer a trade. It is his choice, and he wants to stay in the East. I do think there is a strong likelihood that Machado and Torres will be on the same team, but that team is NYY.
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For the last two years you have continued to try to propose a trade of Puig to Miami and continue to ignore the fact that Mattingly does not want Puig in the same hemisphere much less the same dugout. There is a much better chance that Joc is traded to Miami than Puig ever will be.
I am not the only one that thinks Puig is a good fit in Miami and Mattingly just has to live with it. Puig has changed and Mattingly is left with managing a boring team after the salary dump. Puig would love to live in Miami. Many blogs have also said it. Puig is entertaining and he will be a draw in Miami. Jeter needs to give fans something other than payroll cuts, especially if they trade Realmuto.
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The Yanks want pitching and lefty pitching is always nice to have for Yankee Stadium. If they don’t sign Corbin or trade for Klubler, they might be interested in Hill and Wood. If the Dodgers are happy enough with salary relief then they can trade Hill, Wood, and Bellinger for Torres and nobody else.
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Torres may have similar stats but he hits from the right side. The Dodgers still need righty bats and the Yankees would love to have Belli’s lefty bat at first.
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Offer Machado a 2 year $72M contract and he will still be young enough to go after a 5 to 7 year contract after his Dodger days are over. The Dodgers would have a good balance of righty and lefty bats for a couple of years with the addition of Torres and Machado combined with Turner and Realmuto. Pederson, Verdugo, Seager, and Toles would be the lefty hitters.
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I already agreed with Mark that the Dodgers probably won’t do much so my trades are just off season fun.
We are not getting Machado. We have a SS. End of story.
I think getting russell martin back would be fun.
Let me add a little perspective:
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In 2017, Mookie Betts hit .264.
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Then the Red Sox signed JD Martinez.
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In 2018, Betts was the MVP and hit .346.
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Another great bat in the lineup helped Mookie immensely.
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It’s a trickle down effect, because Xander Bogarts also improved greatly. Beneinandi improved.
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One guy (JD Martinez) helped the guys around him get better.
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So, mock me if you want, but that’s how the Red Sox won: A lot of the team played better.”
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I think with Seager back, it will also be a trickle down effect.
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Watch and Learn!
Mark
I don’t know if you know this, but Mookie was injured in 2017, but he played through it.
Optimism is a wonderful thing.
The past two years I have only been disappointed when the season ended.
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/each-teams-top-2019-rookie-of-year-candidate/c-300739582