World Series or Bust!

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1. Exceptional vision making for a very interesting read. Were you going to name your 4th MVP candidate? It would be shocking and exciting if the team had 2 players with close to 40 home runs.

   Your opening day lineup looks like it could happen. If everything goes well for certain players I might step out with this lineup later in the season:

   Toles
   Forsythe
   Seager
   Turner
   Agon
   Puig
   Grandal
   Pederson

   Of course, Puig, Grandal and Pederson could all move up if they are mashing.

   1. I don’t know who the 4th Candidate is… it could be Puig, Grandal, Pederson, Jansen…???

2. I like Seager hitting second and Turner hitting third but in doing so the team weakens the cleanup hitter spot. I am not ready for Grandal to hit 4th and I have preferred that Gonzales hit 5th for several years now. So, against righties, I think Toles should be moved up the #2 spot.
   .
   If Joc had been used at lead off more in the pre-season, I might guess that he might start the season there. Same logic with Puig not in the #2 spot where I think he will wind up if he gets it going verses just going.
   .
   I will do my predictions later other than guess at 95 wins.
   .
   Forsythe
   Toles
   Seager
   Turner
   Gonzales
   Pederson
   Grandal
   Puig

3. There are more points to agree with and really none to disagree with aside from closer to 100 games than 95. And sure, AGon is in decline and will continue doing so, but about at the same pace his hair turns grey.

   All dug in to my new digs Mark. Got cable hooked up, SNLA, wifi, air conditioning. And just in time! I’m even thinking of getting myself a few beers for this special day. Your today’s read is really fun. CHEERS!

4. OUTSTANDING, “This is the most outstanding prediction I have ever heard. You must have a goddamn I.Q. of 160. You are goddamn gifted, Private Gump. I mean MARK!!!
   .
   Excellent, just excellent, Nothing to criticize, I have been thinking of my predictions and you just nailed it. Saved me a lot of writing. Only things I will add:
   .
   1. My fourth MVP candidate, one Yasiel PUIG!! Turner Ward/ Yasiel PUIG become mentioned (in baseball annals) in the same breath as Charley Lau/George Brett.
   .
   2. Joc Pederson and Yasmani Grandal both hit over 30 home runs. Along with Justin Turner and Cory Seager.
   .
   3. Sadly completely agree about the Ironman Gonzales, multiple trips to the DL. Bellinger steps in admirably.
   .
   4. Yes, Gritty Forsythe will have a great year.
   .
   5. Yes, Kershaw and other starters will win OVER 60 games among them, including at least 5 starters with double digit victories. As Vegas Dodger said on a prior thread “This Dodgers team may have a special rotation in the making”. I agree 100%.
   .
   6. Yes, Clayton gets the Cy Young. Will he get the MVP?
   .
   7. Yes, Urias starts dominating in 2017, a true #2, just like every other level he has pitched in.
   .
   8. The PUIG lights will finally turn on mid May. He will be moved to lead off in the lineup and remind us all of 2013. Toles will platoon with Van Slyke/Thompson.
   .
   9. 95 is the SAME number I was thinking.
   .
   10. Alex Wood and Ross Stripling will prove to be very valuable DEPTH and long relievers.
   .
   11. Kazmir will be traded during June after four AAA starts, probably to the Cardinals for Kolten Wong. Dodgers will not have to eat any money.
   .
   12. TOTALLY AGREE!!
   .
   13. Sweet Redemption.
   .
   Bonus Prediction: In the year 2039, Poster “Bobby” will be bouncing his Grandson on his knee telling him stories of the legendary 2017 Dodger season and that his investment in season tickets that year, was the best investment he ever made.

5. Mark, I like your opening day line-up but I would switch Toles and Puig. Tell us more about your ‘shocking trade’ prediction. Inquiring minds want to know.

   1. There are too many variables – I will likely be shocked too!

6. I still have concerns about the offense because 3 of the 4 offensive power positions seem to be in flux right now; AGon, Puig, Toles/Ethier/Gutierrez/SVS. Joc will improve and Forsythe will be an improvement at 2B production, but not enough to make up for the drop off in production from those identified. The Dodgers are going to need big offensive seasons from JT, Seager and Grandal to reach 2nd half 2016 numbers. But I do agree that Turner Ward creates that improvement. Hitting with RISP is critical, and I predict that the Dodgers will be in the top 10 in MLB this year, but no worse than top half. To be clear, even with my concerns, I do agree that the Dodgers will have an improved offense in 2017.
   .
   I do believe that confidence is critical in achieving established goals, and this team seems very confident without being cocky. No I cannot quantify that, or point to any specific reason. It is just a “gut” feel. IMO they are like the 2016 Cubs in that regard. I do not believe the Cubs feel as confident this year, especially with the loss of Dexter Fowler. They are going to miss him.
   .
   Today’s lineup – you may be right, but I would prefer to see Toles and Pederson switch, so I will go with Toles at #6, and Pederson at #7.
   .
   1. JT will win the NL MVP. Kershaw and Seager will be in top 10.
   2. Joc will hit 33 HR, JT 30, Yas 28, Seager 22
   3. Agree
   4. Agree
   5. Even though Urias will be replacing one of the current starting 5, I have the over on 60 wins. I expect Kershaw – 20, Maeda – 16, Hill – 15, McCarthy – 9, Ryu – 4 (replaced by Urias). My projection will be 64.
   6. I agree Kershaw wins CYA #4 with a sub 2.20 ERA
   7. I agree with the Urias sub 3.00 ERA, but I predict Urias will make his 2017 debut during the 10 game homestand beginning May 18 with the Marlins, followed by the Cardinals and then Cubs.
   8. I predict Puig is traded before the end of the year, Toles will be optioned once Ethier comes off DL, and be recalled when Ethier goes back on DL. I do not expect to see Cody Bellinger until September, unless AGon goes on an extended DL. Short term, SVS, Utley, and Forsythe can fill on a 10 day. FAZ is not going to get Bellinger’s arbitration clock ticking, so no matter what he will not be called up before mid to late June, unless AGon is gone for the year before then.
   9. Fangraphs has the Dodgers at 95, and Keith Law at 97, so I will go in between and predict 96 wins for LAD.
   10. I hope that Stripling and Wood do not have 200 IP. That would mean that there will be at least two pitchers on the DL and fairly early. Last year they had 160 IP and 24 starts. That would indicate 30 starts between the two of them. Also, one of these two will be included in your #11.
   11. I guess this depends on the definitions of shocking. But I do believe that there will be a significant trade.
   12. Dodgers will win NL West, beat the Cardinals in NLDS, and beat the Cubs, in NLCS, and beat the Inidans in the WS.
   13. Logan Forsythe will win WS MVP.

7. My predictions:
   1 – The Dodgers win 93 and their 5th straight Division title;
   2 – Kershaw wins Cy Young and is in the hunt for MVP;
   3 – The Dodgers are eliminated in the playoffs and do not go to the World Series. They are defeated by a team with more ace quality starting pitchers (Cubs, Nationals, Mets, giants);
   4 – They use 13 starting pitchers – the current 5 plus Stewart, Urias, Kazmir, Wood, Stripling, 2 others from the minors plus a deadline acquisition;
   5 – Urias doesn’t begin with the Dodgers until after their 2nd starter from the current 5 goes down with injury. It takes him a month or 2 to gain momentum and he doesn’t pitch well until after the All Star break;
   6 – Puig is moved at the trade deadline;;
   7 – The Dodgers’ bullpen has trouble getting the ball to Jansen. Romo is hurt or only effective against righties. Dayton is effective but has growing pains. Hatcher is DFA’d after an April ERA over 6.00. Stripling and Wood become redundant and Stripling is sent down to the minors early. A set-up guy becomes a priority at the trade deadline.
   8 – The Dodgers continue to hit under .250 with RISP
   9 – 5 Dodgers hit 20+ HR (Seager, Turner, Gonzalez, Pederson, Grandal). Turner hits 30+ and has a huge year.
   10 – Bumgarner and at least one Dodger player get into it during a game and he gets his lights punched out. (I can dream, can’t I?)

   1. Dodger rick

      Your number ten prediction, is every Dodger fan’s fantasy.

      I wouldn’t mind if a really big player from another team, does that to Bumgarner, so non of our guys will get hurt, or suspended.

      Someone does need to shut Bumgarner up, so I hope some of our players, hit Bumgarner, like they hit Grenike, in his first game back, at Dodger stadium!

8. My prediction is we win over 100 games, lead the division basically from start to finish, finish over 10 games ahead of 2nd place SF, have home field throughout the playoffs, and beat Cleve or Bos in Game 6 at Dodger Stadium to win the World Series.

   Yes, I expect a dominant year. Let’ see how off I was in July when we’re 3 games under .500

9. Picking the Dodgers to win the WS is like picking Tiger Woods while in his prime to win the Masters. Tiger verses a non-named anybody else is a tough bet to make.
   .
   I really want to see what Thompson does in April while at Oklahoma. He could push Toles out of LF with a strong performance. Toles likewise with a strong performance could push Puig out of RF. Puig with a strong performance could insert himself in the #2 spot in the lineup.
   .
   If the Dodgers make a huge trade I don’t know what they would want. They need a long-term solution for second base. They could use a solid righty bat that mirrors what they have in Seager, Pederson, and Bellinger. Maybe they want another ace that is healthy, young, and without an injury history. Maybe they want a stud set-up reliever.
   .
   While I agree that the Dodgers need to do better with RISP I want to add that it is hard to score 4 runs if all hitters are contact hitters. Moving runners along 90 feet at a time is a hard way to score runs..
   .
   Slow runners clog the bases. A double won’t score Grandal or Gonzales from first base. A single might not score them from second base. Put Grandal and Gonzales ahead of Joc, Toles, and Puig in the batting order negates the speed that is in the lineup.

   1. I would say another ace.

   2. Bum

      Our team doesn’t have many contact hitters.

      And because of that, this team doesn’t have good balance.

      You need players to get on base, and to keep the offense going, and make it productive.

      Of course the best answer, is a really good hitter, with power.

      Because those type of hitters, tend to not strike out, that much.

      Because strike outs, don’t do a thing, when people are on base.

      1. They limit the damage to one out though. Turner, Forsythe, Toles, Barnes, Gonzales and to a lesser degree Seager are contact hitters.

         1. Bum

            Good sac fly by Joc!

            And let’s hear for the old guy Agone!

            1. Amen MJ.

         2. Bum

            Joc hits in five runs on opening day!

            You deserve this guy!

            1. And MJ, its a beautiful sunny day in NH. Life is good today. I want more.

               Joc fans 1, Joc doubters 0

10. The giants blow it in the 9th. A good start to the season.

    1. Bobbie17

       Don’t you love it?

11. Well, just got in from work & heading out into the yard to jet wash the patio, before I sit down to watch my most eagerly awaited Opening Day for many years.
    I too share much of your optimism although without answering each point, I expect the following,

    1. Rich Hill to shine under the spotlight in LA – and to give us a true #2 starter.
    Kershaw & Hil will win more games as a pair than any other combo for any other team.
    Come playoff time, both will be used sparingly so they are fresh for the playoffs & will join Urias & Ryu (who will both have their innings “managed”, so fresh for the postseason). This will give us a proper 4 man rotation for the playoffs – with Maeda, MCarthy, Stripling & Wood in reserve. This will be our strength this year, not our weakness.
    2. The Bullpen will not be as effective this year, and changes will be made at the TD. Romo won’t work out as hoped, a a replacement Set Up guy will
    Be brought in.
    3. Our Infield will be the main source of run production with Utley putting up great numbers from the bench. He will platoon with AGon who will not hit HRs but will use his experience to drive people in.
    The Outfield will struggle with the exception of Toles, who will end up
    Leading Off and posting a .300BA.
    Forsythe will bat 2nd and also hit .300 and play great defense.
    Seagar will have 100 RBIs and 25 HRs and JT 100 RBIs & 30 HRs.
    The bottom of the order will struggle. Particularly Joc & Puig & the latter will go at the TD. Grandal will hit for less power, but will increase his BA – maybe 20 homers.

    I’ve got 90 wins, but the Trade Deadline will determine the ultimate outcome. A big Bat may be needed to play either of the corner outfield spots.
    I can see Belinger playing in October but not at 1st base – more likely the Outfield.

    I think we beat the Redsox in 6, and are even better next year.

12. Hill is injured at the trade deadline and Romo is either hurt or ineffective. Puig has his head – well, somewhere else. Dodgers’ main needs at the deadline are #2 starter, set-up guy, right handed slugger for the OF. Francisco Rodriguez and JD Martinez come to the Dodgers from Detroit for Puig and other stuff.

    1. I can see JD and F-Rod coming to LA, but the price will be high! Something along the lines of Sborz, Calhoun, Verdugo and another high prospect.
       –
       Unless Puig really takes he has little value and if he rakes, why not keep him?

13. I think the pitching will be the most important factor, on how this season, turns out.

    I do think Maeda is going to come back, and pitch stronger.

    But he is not only going to pitch better this season, I think he will hold up better this year, too.

    And if Ryu is able to make most of his starts, and pitch like he has in the past, he will make our rotation, even stronger, and even longer.

    Ryu might be the best number three or four, pitcher, in all of baseball.

    He will help keep our bullpen from pitching to many innings, and help keep the balance in check with the other starters, and, with the bullpen.

    But with all the different pitchers we have, Urias will be the biggest difference maker, to this team this year.

    Once Urias gets the green light to pitch, he will take out all of his frustrations from having to be held up, and come back into the rotation, and pitch well, after his second start.

    And this will make the front office and Roberts, have to make a quick decision, on who to drop, from the rotation.

    And by August, Urias will be our number two pitcher in our rotation, simply by the way, he has pitched.

    And Urias will make the biggest difference this year, because he will not only pitch well during the regular season, he will pitch even better, in the post season.

    Because he will be stronger, then most of the other pitchers, from having to start late.

    Urias will fit in nicely behind Kershaw, in the post season, and pitch, like another ace.

    And people will be talking about the second coming of Fernando, and Bobbie, will get all of the hype, about Urias, once this happens.

    Urias will make be the biggest different maker, in this team’s, post season aspirations, to date.

14. Injuries are difficult to predict. Just because someone has been injured in the past is no guarantee they will be injured in the future. Of Kazmir, Ryu and McCarthy, I said at least two would be healthy. So far, so good, Clayton Kershaw was a horse until suddenly he was out 2-1/2 months. Injuries can strike Lester, Cueto, Mad Bum or anyone. You never know.
    –
    I also don’t make predictions involving Knuckleheads, like Puig. I hope for the best and expect nothing with him.
    –
    As per usual, injuries will play a big part in the races, but hopefully, this year, it’s others’ injuries, not ours!

    1. Mark

       Are you a little worried about Toles?

15. Dodgers win 94 because with a big lead they don’t need to push hard to the end. I will go out on a limb and predict the Rockies not the Giants finish second and battle for a wild card. Rockies with 90 wins and Giants with 88. Rockies find enough pitching and the Giants bullpen lets them down. Padres and DBacks will not be a factor. They run out of lockers at Dodger Stadium in Sept again with all of the call ups.
    –
    Utley will not platoon with AGon as both are LH hitters. That could be SVS or even Segedin. If Thompson is activated I prefer Taylor to Kike as infield utility and CF is covered. Gutierrez, SVS, Ethier, AGon and Kike have periodic nagging injuries that complicate everything but also open some doors.
    –
    Someone from the minors (Sborz, Liberatore, Morrow, Rhame, Sierra?) or majors (Baez, Stripling, Wood, McCarthy?) emerges as the setup man to Jansen who remains again as an elite closer who can get a 4 or 5 out save.
    –
    Puig shows enough to remain a Dodger but bats lower in the lineup. Try him 7th with Joc 8th to lengthen the lineup and wear pitchers down. Eventually they will make a mistake. I would put Puig 8th but Joc has the better eye when they pitch around him to get to the 9 spot. Roberts pinch hits for the pitcher a few times as early as the 4th or 5th inning to exploit this opportunity at a big inning (except for Kershaw.)
    –
    Ryu holds up, Urias is added in mid May and McCarthy goes to the bullpen. Kazmir finally gets healthy, finds there is no room and unhappy demands a trade. Hill and Maeda are mostly consistent and Oaks knocks on the door.
    –
    A bunt to beat the shift is done once early in every series just to make teams think twice.

    1. Vegas

       I think that is true about Joc hitting better in the eighth position, so maybe the seventh position, would be better for Puig to hit.

       Because Joc can work a walk better, and at times still, Puig likes to swing at the first pitch, if the pitch, is good.

       And sometime the first pitch, is the best pitch.

16. Toles is batting leadoff and I like it. I would rather see Forsythe hit second until Puig finds his swing because Logan is so good at going oppo. Forsythe can hit anywhere but I don’t love him at 5th. I’d rather see him in the top two or 6th. I’m sure the lineup will be very fluid for a while. I don’t think Agone is a #4 hitter anymore, but he’s had huge Aprils the last two years if my memory is correct so let’s hope for another.

    1. Hawkeye

       Do you think Toles will do ok, hitting first?

       1. Hawkeye

          Real good point, about Logan hitting second, because he takes the pitch, to the right side.

       2. I think he will be just fine. He would be good hitting second too.

          1. Hawkeye

             Thanks!

17. Dodger stadium is packed today!

    Sorry Bobby, I can’t see you in that sea of blue!

18. Mark, looks like you all had a good time, sorry I missed you this go around, we will meet soon enough my friend.

    Dodgers win 91 and claim the NL West title, barely edging the Giants.

    After the HUGE deadline move for a right handed bat and a starter:

    THE DODGERS WIN THE PENNANT!!!!

    1. We went to Riptides where I got the all you can eat crab legs…
       –
       Pretty good!
       –
       Maybe DC? Pittsburgh?

       1. So you did make it to Daytona! Damn it. I could have made it there, thought you were in Orlando the whole time.

          I will 110% be in DC for the weekend series, lets plan for that if you make it, and lets also go to Founding Farmers!

          1. Saturday afternoon! We weren’t there long….
             –
             The Dodgers will be in DC Sept 15, 16 and 17.
             –
             I’m all in for Founding Farmers.

             http://www.wearefoundingfarmers.com/

19. Joc and Grandal with back to back dingers! They are making some guys on this blog look downright prophetic with their season predictions.
    .
    Pedersen’s AB was really encouraging. Worked the count to 3-1 with bases loaded. He was dead red on one pitch and one location and Chacin served up a high fastball out over the middle. Joc’s eyes popped wide open but he stayed on the pitch and pulled it hard to right. It was a low line shot that left the yard in a hurry.
    .
    After Grandal’s HR, it is now 6-1 Dodgers.

    1. Knight

       Joc is showing a lot of maturity, with his patience at the plate.

       1. Agreed. If he can sustain this for the season, he will contribute way more than his projections.

          1. It will be interesting to see what kind of a swing he takes in his next at bat.

             1. yes – let’s hope we don’t see the off balance whirly bird with the batting helmet flying off his head….

             2. Bum

                I am very proud of Joc!

                What more do you want from him today, RBIs, in double figures?

             3. Flied out to LF – at least he didn’t try to pull an outside pitch.

20. If it were not for Seager’s throwing error Kershaw would have a perfect game going.

    1. I didn’t understand why Roberts had the infield playing in – it was just the first inning. If Seager plays back, that’s just a ground ball out. At worst, it’s a FC. Either way, Kershaw gets to the 7th without giving up a hit.

21. Even the sky above Dodger Stadium is Dodger blue

    1. Bum

       I am glad that Joc could make your day today!

       And the beautiful weather you had today, must have felt, like icing on the cake.

       I hope you have more days like this this year, because that is going to make a lot of Dodger fans, happy too!

22. Hatchet bein’ Hatchet…

23. It is just one game, and it is against the Padres, but hey, what an awesome game for the Dodgers players and fans!!!

24. 194 wins. Number one today. Our rotation will be great. Urias will replace anyone not doing well by May 1
    Taylor will be called up to replace Kike. Thompson will be starting in left or right field by May 1.

25. Like all of those ideas Idahoal, except the wins part is going to be a little tough to get to this year.

26. What a great game! Remember last year though they trounced the Padres 3 straight to open the season, then went to San Francisco. I will still enjoy this one though cfor at least one day. Grandal homers both L and R handed in the same game for the 1st time in his career, a great sign that his power may be back on the right side. A long ways to go to catch Teixeira with 14, Swisher with 13 and Beltran with 12. Eddie Murray and Chili Davis had 11, Micky Mantle did it 10 times, along with Ken Caminiti and Tony Clark. Grandal is tied for the ML lead with Bumgarner in HR’s! Joc leads the ML in RBI’s with 5.

27. That was a fun atmosphere today. Except, of course, for the idiots who were wasting all their cash on those $18 beers and getting drunk.

    Should be a good year. 6 months to go. Hopefully I see some you all out at the stadium this year. MJ? You’re always welcome to join

    1. I’ll be there at some point….

28. Ok here goes, don’t even have the pedigree that some of you guys have, but what the hell, gonna give it a try.

    1. Dodgers hang around first place for the first couple of months while the sexy pick, the Rockies, actually have some decent pitching for the first part of the season before they become the Rockies and get overtaken by the Blue Train by the All Star break.

    2. Forsythe will be to the Dodgers what Mychael Thompson was to the Showtime Lakers. He will be the missing piece that takes them over the top, and will come up HUGE against crucial series against the Giants in September, as well the Mets and Cubs in the Play-offs. This guy is the real deal. FAZ did their homework on him.

    3. Trace Thompson will take over a permanent position as a starting outfielder by June and will be an All Star by 2018. We forget how truly talented he is, at the expense of Puig and SVS.

    4.Toles gets sent down in June for more seasoning but comes back up with a vengeance in August-September and establishes himself as a lethal offensive weapon, just in time for the play-offs.

    5.The Rangers get off to a slow start and crater by the July 31st deadline. Finally, finally, FAZ has the vets and prospects to make a deal, and trade Puig, Kike, Verdugo and 2 other top farm hands for Yu Darvish. Because they can.

    6. Hill stops beating himself up and starts kicking ass and wins just under 20 games. He will be the darkhorse pitcher nobody wants to face.

    7.Dodgers roll through the play-offs with Kershaw, Darvish, Hill, and one bad ass Urias. Vin throws out the first pitch in the World Series, which the Dodgers win in 6 over the Indians,

    8. All the Giant fans up here in Paso Robles do the death spiral because they know whats coming for the next 5 to 6 years, and it aint pretty. Gonna be kind of quiet upm here for a change, nothing worse than an arrogant crap talking Ants fan.

    1. You are a Dodgers fan just like the rest of us roger. Well done as anybody else. Nobody will remember in 3 months anyway as it’s all for fun.

    2. I like it, Roger.

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