PeterJ asked what I thought the OKC rotation might be. I have been playing with that for about a week, so I thought I might step out and draw some conclusions. Just like LA, OKC is still a work in progress. Whichever LHSP does not make LA rotation will probably go down to OKC. Both Wood and Ryu are pitching well, but only one is going to make the rotation. If Ryu goes down it will need to be on the DL as he does not have any options. Wood has all 3 of his options remaining. In Mid-May Urias will also force another decision or two.
Another open question is what to do with Ross Stripling. He is a logical long man reliever, but the Dodgers still want him to stretch out and keep starting as an option. They know he can go to the pen and succeed, but he still has value as a starter. Non-roster RHRP relievers still in camp include Brandon Morrow and Yaisel Sierra (who went 2.2 IP yesterday). There is still one 40 man spot open. And then what to do with Chris Hatcher. They seem bound and determined to continue to give him chances. We will know more in 8 days. Right now there are too many questions regarding RHRP, and with the limited number of off days in April it seems logical that FAZ will want someone to go multiple innings, at least in April. So Stripling will probably start the year with LAD.
Therefore, the projected OKC starting rotation (IMO) to start should be:
- Alex Wood/Hyun-jin Ryu
- Trevor Oaks
- Brock Stewart
- Andrew Thurman (former Brave)
- Wilmer Font (former Ranger/Blue Jay) and/or Fabio Castillo (former Padre)
Some have speculated, and I would not be surprised to see Josh Sborz make the leap, but I just do not believe he needs to be pushed that fast. They have Thurman, Font, and Castillo so players do not need to be rushed. If not to start the season, it will not be long before he makes it to OKC. Madison Younginer and Patrick Schuster have both been former starters so they can be considered in an emergency start.
Stewart should start out the year on the DL, making his spot open, and maybe this is where Sborz can get a look. I can also see the benefit of switching Stripling and Wood during the year so they both stretch out and get innings as starters, but both are probably destined for the bullpen as Andrew Miller types (albeit not his caliber). Both should also increase their value for trade deadline consideration as well.
With the trades of Jharel Cotton, JDL, and Chase De Jong, ML ready back of the rotation pitchers are thinning out. The bulk of the prospects are down in A ball, but there are still enough ML ready to keep fueling LAD. Sborz is ready to make the leap to AAA, and I can see the Dodgers pushing Andrew Sopko later in the season to see what he can do as well. Two other Tulsa starters, Scott Barlow and Isaac Anderson, are probably not ready for AAA, but Barlow is close. However with organizational pitchers like Font, Thurman, and Castillo, there really is no rush. That is why they are signed; to give the players in the lower levels time to properly develop. There was an interesting article in MLB TradeRumors on this subject with Brian Cashman: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/new-york-yankees
- “In a Q&A with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that the franchise’s tendency to “cut corners” due to a constant need to contend has led to issues in developing starting pitchers. “Part of it is we can’t get out of our own way because we don’t have the patience to let guys finish off their development, because if you possess some unique ability that stands out above everybody else — whether it was Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, now [Luis] Severino and before that [Bryan] Mitchell and Shane Greene — we’re pulling them up before their development is finished.” The full interview is well worth a read in its entirety, as Cashman is very candid about such topics as his long career in the team’s front office, past and more recent transactions, and the Yankees’ current youth movement.”
There are probably 1-2 other older pitchers that will get released and pique the Dodgers interest so as to pick them up as insurance.
Just like any other Dodger projection, this too will change… probably before the sun goes down
Great coverage, AC!
–
Trevor Oaks is a guy I like a lot. He’s not a Top-of-the-Rotation guy but he could be a solid #4 or 5. He pitched over 150 innings last year and pitched at least 7 innings ten times! He keeps you in games. He had passed De Jong and Cotton as a starter, which is part of the reason they are gone. Of course it is early and there are certain circumstances which affect players, but he’s how they stack up this Spring:
–
Oaks – 11 IP, 11 K, 2.38 ERA
De Jong – 11 IP, 4 K, 4.09 ERA
Cotton – 11 IP, 12 K, 6.55 ERA (he has walked 9)
JDL – 3.2 IP, 3 K, 17.18 ERA (He also pitched 2.2 innings in the WBC with 5 K’s)
–
JDL has not pitched much this Spring, like maybe he is injured or something. He has been optioned to AAA and evidently will start the season in Durham.
–
This is off-subject, but I wonder if Kazmir’s contract is insured? His velocity is severely limited by his lower back/hips – I wonder if the Dodgers will try and unload him that way?
Mark, I look at Trevor Oaks like Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake. He is going to be an innings eater, keep the team in the game, but not have overwhelming stats. His ceiling is a #3 on some teams, but a #4 or #5 with LAD. Keep building mid to back end rotation pitchers and package for that established #2 or that established big OF bat.
.
With respect to Kaz, I think I have been clear that I have been a believer. But even I have my limits. I am going to hold off until I see what he does Sunday against the Rangers before I can accept what most everyone else has. If he doesn’t have his velo up, then he needs to go on the 60 day DL to build himself back up at extended ST, and rehab starts. That opens up another 40 man spot, and if he never gets it back, release him at the end of the year. But if he does, maybe he becomes this year’s Ricky Nolasco, mid-season pick up. What is the harm of holding on and hoping he finds the solution? He cannot be moved via trade, and his salary is already a sink cost.
Very insightful AC, well done!
–
2 things stand out to me, Sborz was a 1st round pick out of college as a closer which might still be his eventual spot or set up man, which would get him to the majors faster and where I prefer him. Second, Wood and Stripling are going nowhere as the only other ML ready starter is Oaks. A few others are close to being ready but the Dodgers have moved all of the young pitching they are going to for now based on your OKC projected rotation.
–
Guys to watch are obviously Buehler, White and Alvaraz as fast movers through the organization plus the health of Ryu and unleashing the Kraken that is Urias. Hill, Maeda and McCarthy have been brittle in the past so some depth in reserve will be needed for the long season.
–
I was pulling for UCLA and they laid an egg last night. I was not impressed with the coaching as they stayed in a zone defense that was not working for far too long and did not slow the pace on offense and work inside to their bigs enough. Wild passes and silly turnovers and quick shots were not corrected during the game. They needed to be pulled over for driving 65 in a 35 mph zone. Ball and Leaf are one and dones and Bryce Alford graduates so at least 3 starters are gone from UCLA next year. The lack of depth in the rotation was exposed when one of the 6 key players fouled out early and played only 16 minutes and the 5 remaining were worn down near the end. However take nothing away from Kentucky as they played really really well, especially Cox. They shot the lights out, hustled all night, played well in transition, made their free throws and conducted themselves with poise and class-an extremely well coached team. In fact, Calipari was conducting a clinic and Steve Alford had a seat in the front row. I hope he was paying attention.
I read this morning that Alford says he is not even going to talk to Indiana.
I watched UCLA Kentucky and I completely agree with your assessment. The UCLA players just did not seem focused – lots of turnovers, not aware of where the loose ball was, not reacting quickly to rebounds, etc. Having Thomas Welch out with foul trouble hurt. Isaac Hamilton shot the ball well, but for some reason they did not get him the ball enough. Lonzo Ball has an unorthodox shot. When he’s making his shots, people let it go. But last night he missed several long three point shots in the 2nd half. Maybe it’s time to question if his shooting form will hold up in the NBA…
Good analysis on UCLA. Kentucky got lots of open threes and every UCLA shot was contested. Cox was on fire and KY got him the ball. Hamilton was hot and UCLA didn’t get him the ball. Wooden never played zone defense.
.
Ball is leaving but Ball is arriving as UCLA reloads with Ball brothers.
.
Ball reminds me of Gary Payton.
Bum
Believe me, UCLA is a team that should play a zone defense.
They didn’t really start playing decent defense, until after the middle part of the season.
And a zone defense, made them better defensively.
They were not playing the right, zone defense.
And in a zone defense, there is no way, that a player, should be able to go down the key, so easily, let alone, all night long.
What inpressed me with that player, was how he adjusted his shot, so high in depth, so the tall players were not able to get a piece of it, or block it.
Vegas, IMO it is way too early to say that both Stripling and Wood are going nowhere. Wood is an established ML starter. I think the problem is that too many want back of the rotation pitchers to put up top of the rotation numbers. He is all of 26. The problem I see with Wood is that he is pretty good (maybe even very good) the 1st 2 times through the order, and then the mystique disappears and he becomes hittable. He either needs to learn how to change something up the 3rd time, or move to relief. I truly think he can be an Andrew Miller type reliever. Not just a long man/spot starter, but a high leverage mid game 2+ inning reliever. Until the roster size increases, these type of relievers are going to become very valuable.
.
I know Trevor Oaks is the new Wunderkid, but while he started the 2016 season in the California League, Ross Stripling was no-hitting the Giants in his debut. He was on an innings limit from TJ surgery recovery. I do agree that the Dodgers are probably looking at him as a reliever in the long run, and maybe that starts this year. I would have zero problem with Wood and Stripling as # 4 and #5 at ML, and I would have no problem with both going down to OKC to continue to start. I found it interesting that Yaisel Sierra went 2.2 innings yesterday. Could that be an audition for that multiple innings long reliever so that Stripling can continue to start? It would be a huge risk, but I bet it is under consideration.
AC
A really good analysis.
And I really like your take, on Wood.
Wood at times can look almost untouchable, the first two times through the order, but then, he isn’t able, to fool anyone.
I think your recommendation on him, is really good.
I wonder how many times baseball people, have tried to change, his delivery.
MJ, just like hitting it is really difficult to change once you have been doing it for so many years. It becomes muscle memory. I am sure some have tried to tweek it, but he is comfortable with the way he throws. That is why I do not like to see Joc continue to change his swing. Learn to adjust…sure. Go the other way more often, yes. Become a better 2 strike hitter, yes. But his swing is his swing. He is never going to be a high average hitter. He is going to strike out a lot. But he is going to hit for power. Leave him alone and let him get comfortable with whatever he is doing. All he has to do is look at the O’s Chris Davis to see how far a low BA, high K, high HR can take him. Plus Joc is a far better defender than Davis. Show him some confidence and give him CF and leave him alone. He will either produce or he wont.
AC
I was just asking Bum about Joc, adjusting his swing, for that same reason.
I think that would be hard to do, so close to opening day.
AC
I could be wrong, but didn’t White also have a TJ surgery, too?
Yes, as a freshman at Santa Clara.
AC
Thanks!
Vegas
They had four turnovers, at the begining of the game, just trying to do to much, and getting in the way, of each other.
And although UCLA is a team that runs, they never really have, that many turnovers, for a team that runs.
Kentucky was better coached, and they wanted this game more.
I used the word they, but it was really only one guy that did most of Kentucky’s scoring, and UCLA didn’t stop him, from going down the middle of the key all night long.
I thought after the half, that wouldn’t be allowed anymore, but that didn’t happen.
With all the different weapons that UCLA has, they should have dominated that game.
I think UCLA is a much better team, with better players, but they don’t really have a very good coach.
And I thought that, way before the tournament.
Maybe he will get better, once his son is off the team, but I doubt that.
I thought that last foul on UCLA’s big guy, was a ticky tack foul.
Really from the begining, Kentucky got all of the breaks, and bounces, and when UCLAs big guy’s shot, got stuck on the side of the rim, that said it all, about the night.
I thought Oregon would do better then the other PAC 12 teams, because they have more older guys, and seniors in there line up, unlike UCLA and Arizona.
I don’t know how old Ball’s younger brothers are, but they will be going to UCLA, once they graduate from high school, so maybe Ball going to the pros, won’t hurt UCLA in the next few years, like it seems it will.
Can someone PLEASE tell me what the infatuation is with Hatcher? Why is he still with us? Hey, real nice guy, but he has just killed us in blown leads and high leverage situations over the past two years, and early last season was like watching a kid play with matches next to a powder keg. The guy only has one pitch it seems, and that is a fast ball straight down the pipe. With all of our pitching options, why are we still hanging on to him? Is it contract or the radar gun?
Mark might be right about the pictures or maybe because he has nasty stuff and has been successful at times in the past.
.
It’s a fine line between “success and suckage” and FAZ knows it. However that said, 32 yr old Hatcher is nearing the end of the line, looks like assignment to OKC or release at this point to me.
I do not know what the infatuation is with Hatcher, but it seems apparent. They keep throwing him out there and hoping for a different result. Isn’t that the definition of insanity? Send him back to Miami and maybe we can get another Grant Dayton.
Wouldn’t that be the definition of a miracle?
Boxout
I don’t know, they did get Dayton, with a very good deal.
Hatchet has some photos of Friedman and Zaidi they do not want to get out.
Ok, haven’t heard Hatchet before, that ‘s a good one Mark. And Boxout, I had no idea he was that old. I thought he was in his mid 20’s. Dang, that is getting up there for a guy with one pitch. I trust FAZ, just hope they aren’t trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Are they still trying to get a return for Dee Gordon?
Roger, I too have wondered if FAZ is holding on to Hatcher for some perceived return on Dee Gordon. Baseball GM’s cannot afford to be emotional, but I can understand why FAZ would want their first major transaction as Dodgers to be a good one. Right now I think that return is going to have to come from Kike’ and Barnes. I still want to see what Dee can do without PED’s. I think that trade can be autopsied at the end of the 2017 season.
I think Segedin might be the bridge to Bellinger. That guy can hit. With power. Right now, he is on the team over SVS. I like SVS, but Segedin has some ceiling left, with none for SVS. No way should the team lose him. He could be VERY good. If he can play the outfield, I’d take him over Puig/Thompson.
Yeah, I agree. Right now Segedin looks like he can easily replace SVS on our team. We don’t need 2 of them
Bobbie 17, and Bobby,
I just heard Jerry Harrison say, that he considers Segedin’s bat, the best right hand bat off the bench, and that would include Scotty’s bat.
SVS is out of options. If they send him down, they lose him.
–
Segedin has 3 options left, so they will not lose him if they send him down.
–
SVS has some value, so unless they can trade him, he will probably make the team, although I like Segedin a lot and he can play 1B, 3B and outfield.
Mark, are you sure about SVS being out of options? Eric Stephen still shows him with 1 remaining. Per his Dodger payroll schedule he has been optioned twice (2012 and 2013).
Ron Cervanka says he is out. I did not check
You may be right
The ESPN broadcast also mentioned SVS has an option. I remember him having one left last year and it wasn’t used.
SVS is not out of options. He has one left.
Great post as always, Always.
.
A few weeks ago I read an article that said Oaks and De Jong were working on a new pitch that if perfected would make them better than a 4 or 5 spot in a rotation. Not to say they would be Maddux like, but who knows?
.
For some reason I have always thought Stripling could be used like Miller and maybe have the same success but until Always said that Wood was much better the first two times through a lineup than he was a third time, I hadn’t thought about Wood also being a Miller type.
.
I haven’t found anybody to agree with me yet but I have always wondered why pitchers that either need to keep their innings count down or have trouble getting past the 5th inning aren’t paired. One pitcher goes 4 innings and then gives way to his paired pitcher to pitch 4 innings. They would both warm up as if they were starting a game, albeit one for the first inning and the other for the 5th inning.
.
In order for the second pitcher to come into the game in a way that mimicked coming in as a starter, a short inning relief pitcher could pitch in-between as needed. Stripling and Wood could be paired. Urias/Ryu and McCarthy could be a match.
.
Kershaw, Maeda, Oaks, and Sewart are ready to try to go 7 innings.
AC, just to clarify I meant by going nowhere is they will not be dealt to another team as they will be needed throughout the season. They both can start or relieve and last year they used 10 starters during the course of the season. They also have options so can be sent down as needed, but will mostly be up. Ryu is the key in my opinion.
–
Good comments by all on the UCLA game. It was a winnable game with the right adjustments that were never made.
Vegas, that makes more sense to me now. Sometimes my brain and the written word do not connect. And I absolutely agree that Ryu is a very significant key.
Vegas
I was shocked that there were no real adjustments, after the first half.
Good article. I don’t see anyway Wood goes down to AAA. I believe Ryu either pushes him to the pen or Ryu continues to stretch out at AAA.
It seems like the Dodgers have taken the approach of letting guys start as long as they’re having success so it will be interesting to see what they do Sborz who’s future seems to be in the pen.
Hawkeye
I think your right on, with what you said!
Hawkeye, I hope you are right about Wood. We will need to see how far Ryu can stretch out in his next start. With Kaz scheduled for Sunday, I would guess that Ryu will start Monday(?), plus get a couple innings in with the Freeway Series. All of the “experts” are putting out their projected 25 man, and some say Wood is an absolute, and others say Stripling is an absolute. If neither are starting one has to go down to OKC (IMO) because there is no need for two young long man/spot starter relievers in the pen at the same time. The reason I am going with Stripling is because all indications are that Ryu will at least get the chance to open the season as a starter (if he continues to do well and his velo continues to increase), and with the RH relievers still a big question after Jansen/Romo, it just made sense to me that Stripling would be that reliever. Dayton, Avilan, and Liberatore are a lot more reliable than Baez, Hatcher, and Fields. But it is just as plausible that Stripling eliminates the need for Hatcher and Fields (which he absolutely does), and FAZ sends Liberatore back down, and Wood stays as well. That would certainly be the best bullpen for the Dodgers.
.
I agree that Sborz’s eventual role will be in the pen. He has a good arm. His K/9 is better than 9 (barely but better), and his K/BB ratio is better than 3 to 1. Not Kenley like, but certainly respectable. But I think what makes Josh an ideal high leverage reliever is that just like Kenley he has a short memory. I am guessing that Sborz has a short leash on starting and that Kapler will not hesitate to make the change at the right time. There is no need for a Chris Reed repeat. Josh is at the top of the organization as a high leverage reliever, but another in a long line of mid to back end rotation starters. With only two plus pitches more back end of the rotation. He has to recognize that his best opportunity to get to the Show and be a contributor is in the pen. He can show his change enough to make his fastball and slider look very good in a small sample size. And as long as Gagne sticks around, Josh should learn whatever he can about the way Gagne throws the change.
Seems like Wood could be more than a long man in the pen
He absolutely could be. But is he going to beat out Ryu, and then Urias? I do not see the Dodgers having 4 left hand starting pitchers in the rotation. I want Ryu to be healthy, and I want Urias to become the pitcher most of us think he will be. The Dodgers have 5 quality LH starters. Kershaw, Hill, and Urias are untouchable. Ryu is a huge long term question. Since I am such a big fan of Alex Wood, my fear is that he is going to be traded…because he IS more than a long man in the pen.
If the Dodgers could get Brauch from Baltimore or someone of similar skills I’d move him if Ryu is ready to go. When I said he could be more I didn’t just mean a starter or a long man. He may just be dominant against lefties out of the pen.
The big risk is they trade him with Stewart and Kazmir in the DL then Ryu goes down and Urias isn’t ready to go. That’s a lot of ifs and I do think Oaks and Stripling are decent insurance too but if the price was right I’d move him but it would have to be for a player that makes a difference this year.
Hawkeye
Did you see Toles grand slam?
No. I was working a bit. Now watching Gonzaga game. I’m happy for him. LF is his job to lose now. I feel bad for Andre because I do think he’d produce too but Toles brings some much needed speed to the lineup. I hope they don’t waste it hitting him 8th.
The kid on Xavier looks like the gay son in Wedding Crashers.
MBB – Three of the final 8 from the SEC. Too bad South Carolina & Florida play each other on Sunday with one of them being sent home. What do you think of that Gamecock defense?
Pretty stinkin’ good!
I guess I should have checked. Here’s where I saw SVS was out of options:
http://www.thinkbluela.com/2017/02/roster-moves-looming-for-dodgers/
I guess I should have read the comments.
It is quite possible that the Dodger Brass may keep Buehler and/or White in extended Spring Training as well, so depending upon what is decided there, it could be a “trickle-down” (or trickle up) effect.
MJ – you see Joc’s bunt to beat the shift? Just like we talked about in the last thread.
Knight
I just missed Joc’s bunt.
Did Joc get it down the third base line, just enough, to be able to make it to first easily?
I didn’t miss Tole’s grand slam!
He got it fair down the third base line. It wasn’t far enough down towards third base and the pitcher came over and field it. The throw was off line, but I think Joc would have beat it out anyways. If Joc can push it past the pitcher, then he will get to first without a throw and expose the shift.
AC, great writing. Hope you’re going to pursue sports journalism career because more analysis like yours is certainly needed. what sources do you utilize for info? I really enjoy reading diverse opinions as we move through the season. Glad you are on-site.
Looks like Stewart is out until May 1st.