Some Bums Rap…

Today’s blog is written by Bumsrap.  Thanks for a day off…

Pitching Depth

In 2008, Cole Hamels seemed unhittable for much of the season and the post-season.  He was 24 years old in 2008 when he pitched 227.1 innings in the regular season plus 35 more in the post season. That was 63 more innings total from the previous year. His worst year of his career was 2009. Here is a link to an analysis of his 2009 year that concludes that he simply had great deal of good fortune in 2008, and a great deal of bad fortune in 2009.  I think he needed a year to fully recuperate from the extra innings he pitched in 2008.

Apparently there is a thing called “the Verducci Effect” which states that pitchers under 25 years old who pitch thirty or more innings than the previous year are particularly vulnerable to injuries.  In Hamels’ case, that means that he would be vulnerable to injury in 2009 because he pitched 63 more innings in 2008 than he did in 2007.

What might that tell us about the Dodgers pitching staff?

  1. While Keshaw and Maeda are older than 25 I would like to see their innings in 2017 (regular and post season combined) to not be more than their highest innings count to date and I would do that by skipping starts during the season.
  2. Urias, Stewart, Buehler, White, Alvarez, and Oaks, should not pitch more than 25 innings than they pitched the previous year.
  3. McCarthy, Ryu, and Wood should pitch between 120 and 150 innings total.

That plan would change the perspective many of us have on depth and potential trades.

Let’s Talk About Sleep

It has to be difficult for baseball players to return to their homes and hotel rooms after a game and not let the roaring crowds and their performance keep them awake.

Not sleeping enough and not sleeping well is not OK. WebMD says this about lack of sleep:

1) “Decreased Performance and Alertness: Sleep deprivation induces significant reductions in performance and alertness. Reducing your nighttime sleep by as little as one and a half hours for just one night could result in a reduction of daytime alertness by as much as 32%.”

2) “Memory and Cognitive Impairment: Decreased alertness and excessive daytime sleepiness impair your memory and your cognitive ability — your ability to think and process information.”

If the Dodgers want to optimize performance through improved diets and exercises, I would think they would be interested in helping their players sleep better and relax more. Technology exists that creates an “acoustic brain mirror” for the brain. Read-only, non-invasive sensors are placed on the scalp to listen to brain rhythms with great precision. Software translates this brainwave activity into sounds of different pitch and timing. These sounds are played back to a person through earbuds, in real time. This self-reflection process supports the brain to bring itself to a deeply relaxed state. From this state, the brain tends to reorganize its own rhythms, on its own terms.  Learn more here.

Rants

  • Just-in-time (JIT) seems to apply to the Dodgers as Gonzales and Ethier are going to be nursing injuries all year and Bellinger and Toles are going to replace them just-in-time.
  • Kazmir will once again rise like the Phoenix and pitch this year.
  • Seager may become Mr. October but will never be known as Mr. March.
  • There are a few players that have had 30 30 seasons with 30 steals and 30 homeruns but Joc might become the first 30 30 player to have 30 bunt hits and 30 homeruns.

— Bumsrap

This article has 43 Comments

  1. Bums, GREAT job. In addition to your Hamels example, you can also look at the 2015 Mets. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard who had 216, 216, and 205.2 IP respectively (including playoffs and minors). In addition, Steven Matz pitched 155.2 innings. deGrom (2010), Harvey (2013), and Matz (2014) all had TJ surgery., and 2015 was their heaviest load. Remember there was a big “disagreement” between Mets FO and Scott Boras about limiting Harvey to 180 total for 2015. In 2016, injuries curtailed the starts and innings for Syndergaard (30 & 183.2), deGrom (24 & 148), Harvey (17 & 92.2), and Matz (22 &132.1). Most analysts link the heavy load in 2015 to the injuries in 2016. Some conjecture that Harvey will never be the same again. Did the heavy 2015 workload one year from TJ surgery recovery have any effect on his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome injury in 2016?
    .
    With the workload the Cubs pitchers have had the last two years, it will be interesting to see how they hold up in 2017. I will be surprised to see if both Lester (33) and Arrieta (31) continue at a 220 IP pace as they have done for the last two years. At 38, can Lackey match last years 201 IP? Hendricks has averaged 200 for the last two years. They have gone relatively injury free the last two years, and with nothing really in the pipeline, they are going to need repeat performances again 2017.
    .
    Kershaw will get close to 200, and Maeda should match last year’s 185.2 total (including playoffs). But I do not see any other Dodger pitcher approaching 180 IP. In today’s market, the SP is the greatest injury risk, and the largest investment. They need to be protected for both baseball and economic reasons. While some may ridicule the number of SP the Dodgers went through last year, they still won 91 games. So if they have 10 starting pitchers again this year, is that a problem or is it a sign that FAZ actually does know how to build a team (40 man vs 25 man). I think the latter.
    .
    One change to your limitation of 25 IP greater than last year for Urias, Stewart, Buehler, White, Alvarez, and Oaks, Buehler only had 5 IP last year. He will be limited, probably close to 100, no more than 120.

    1. Thanks Always. The Mets pitchers are a great example where a young rotation might have been pushed that the Dodgers should keep in mind when allocating innings to their young pitchers.

  2. “The Verducci Effect” makes alot of sense. AlwaysCompete is correct, “the SP is the greatest injury risk, and the largest investment”. Dodgers look like they got the goods, young studs, got to protect them.

    Not sure I agree with your sleep worries. I have never known any 20 – 36 yr old that had any problem sleeping (and soundly) when they wanted to. Problem was, they wanted to stay out late partying and chasing the ladies. Maybe a little “Saltpeter” in those 21st century meals would be helpful.

    Get it done Kazmir.

    1. I agree with you Boxout about young men generally sleeping well. But I think that sleeping after being stirred up from an event is harder to do. Research shows that men often lose sleep over job-related stress. Men also tend to take sleep for granted and stay up longer than they should. http://www.everydayhealth.com/sleep/101/how-much-sleep-do-you-need.aspx
      .
      Players get wound up after a game. A tough loss, a couple of strike outs, an error, a bad play, a home run, and a roaring crowd makes it harder to go home and turn off the adrenaline. Some days have to be harder than others.
      .
      Box, you are also right about some players not going straight home or leaving their hotel room after a game. Bowden’s Ball Four was the first look at players post-game activities. But if a player wants to get that big contract they need to do whatever they can to get to peak performance.

  3. Great post by Bums. There was an argument that adding Cole Hammels to Greinke and Kershaw would have resulted in the Dodgers getting past the NLCS and into the WS. The cost to the Dodgers would have been Urias and/or Seager. I personally am not sure that having Hammels would have made things turn out differently. As much as I love Kershaw, I think the Dodgers success in that series rested on his performance (or lack thereof). At this point, I am enjoying the forward view with the Dodgers flexing their young stars and their loaded farm.

    1. Oh Boy, Good thing you are in the safety of Ladodgertalk when you bring up that potential Hamels trade.
      .
      Nothing like it to bring out the ire of the FAZophobes. Some STILL insist DeLeon would have been plenty to get Hamels, ignoring the haul the Phils got from Texas. But, you are absolutely right, if our co-aces had won 3 out of 4 that series would have been ours.
      .
      Can you imagine Seager in Phil? Too painful to contemplate.

      1. I liked Molly Knight’s book and I think it was mostly credible. The part where she talked about SVS being part of a deal for Hamels is totally unbelieveable and without merit in my opinion. I am not saying she is totally wrong – Maybe the Dodgers offered that, but look at the haul the Phils got from Texas. I would have taken at least Seager or Urias along with De Leon and Pederson… probably more. The deal she talked about made no sense in reality.

        1. Funny, I saw Ned doing a radio show on the way into the game on Sunday. When I came out, he was still out there doing the show. He did let people come up and get interviews at the appropriate time. My son, Deuce, got one of his back when he was actually GM so we decided not to bother. I should have went up and asked him what was on the table for Cole Hamels so we could settle this once and for all.

      2. I don’t think people insist that would have been enough. DeLeon and SVS is what was on the table when Texas topped it.

  4. I don’t know when Pederson will steal 30 bases. He was a base stealing threat in the minors, but since he has been with the big team, he doesn’t even try much. When he first came up, he had little success in stealing, and that has shut hin down in that department. As I recall, the pitchers had his move from first figured out right away.

    1. Mattingly said Joc could get a running lead in the minors but not in the majors. Joc also pushed to get to 30 steals meaning that his success rate wasn’t all that great.
      .
      Look again though Bobbie. I said 30 bunt hits and 30 home runs. I don’t think he will ever steal 30 bases, especially with how little FAZ likes steals. He would only get 30 bunt hits if the defense didn’t adjust to him bunting and stayed in the shift.

  5. I have never understood the way that baseball has treated pitchers over the past 40 years or so. I would be more inclined to believe that pitchers need to be treated as if they were made out of cut glass and needed to be wrapped in velvet and kept in a secure place if there was evidence that pitchers were less injury prone now than previously, but the opposite is true.

    From what I have read, the best predictors of pitching injuries are:
    1 – history of prior injury (thus the Dodgers’ predilection of signing the old and infirm has been largely unsuccessful)
    “As BP’s Carleton found in a separate analysis, perhaps the most significant predictor of a pitcher getting injured in the future is simply whether he was injured in the past. On its face, that’s not especially useful,7

    but it plays into another old hypothesis that might be worthy of new life: the “injury nexus,” formulated by Carroll and FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver way back in 2003. The idea of the injury nexus is that pitchers are especially vulnerable to catastrophic damage during a very specific, formative time in their careers, before they hit the age of 24. One big medical theory as to why: Pitchers’ bodies aren’t completely mature until roughly that age, putting them at greater physical risk of injury.”

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mystery-sabermetrics-still-cant-solve/

    2 – Age – pitchers under 24 who have big increases in their workload are more susceptible to injury.

    I don’t buy pitch counts or innings limits. Any cursory look at any list of pitchers reveals the 100’s of pitchers who have thrown over 300 innings. As recently as 1971, Mickey Lolich threw over 370 innings for the Tigers. (Wilbur Wood threw 376 innings in ’72 but he doesn’t count as a knuckler.) Gaylord Perry and Steve Carlton both pitched over 340 innings in the ’70’s as well. – Perry did it twice. Robin Roberts, Phil Niekro (at 39!), Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Denny McClain, all have thrown over 330 innings in a season.

    I have no trouble with being very careful with a young pitcher like Julio Urias who simply hasn’t thrown enough innings to build up arm strength yet, but any pitcher who has been properly handled, especially one over 24 shouldn’t be babied – the way to get strong is to exercise more, not less! A guy like Kershaw, in his prime at 29 who has been properly handled his whole career doesn’t need to be treated with kid gloves.

    As to the Braintrust’s Injured Pitcher Brigade (Kazmir, McCarthy, Hill, et al), they can’t be counted on and are more likely to be reinjured as demonstrated above. If you want to be careful with them, fine, although it may not matter.

    As an aside, I am amazed at the hypothesis that somehow ulnar collateral ligament surgery (AKA “Tommy John”) – the inside of the elbow, is somehow related to thoracic outlet impingement (where a neurovascular bundle between the clavicle and 1st cervical rib becomes compressed) due to too much work. Maybe, if recovery from TJ surgery resulted in a change in pitching mechanics, but if the Mets let that happen, they weren’t paying attention.

    1. My thoughts on limiting innings on Kershaw has less to do with injury, although that is a consideration, and more to do with him being able to perform extremely well year after year. A peak year in innings could have an affect on the following year. So, why not give him some rest during the dog days of the season so that the extra load of a post season doesn’t affect the next year?
      .
      Things happen when one is tired and sore that don’t happen when one is rested and free of pain. Mark Twain (I think)

      1. Bum

        Nice piece!

        I have no problem having pitchers, skipping starts to stay fresh, and that includes, Kershaw.

        I also don’t think Kershaw should try to pitch eight or nine innings, every time, he pitches.

        But I really do appreciate, his work ethic.

        So hopefully we won’t be in such a tight pennant race in September, that we can’t give Kershaw, a start off, to keep him fresh.

        I know Kershaw takes pride in his control, but I hope he can try to throw something different then his fastball, when he is down on the count, in order to keep hitters, honest this year.

        I think if he can do that more in the regular season, that might help him pitch better, in the post season.

        Because in a lot of Kershaw’s games in the post season, he tends to throw to many fastballs, one after another, when he is hit, and that doesn’t help.

    2. Leo Mazzoni preached more throwing at submaximal velocity though between starts. Smoltz, Glavine, Maddox took the mound with very few missed starts.

      The baby these kids now and injuries haven’t dropped a bit. Watching Kershaw’s pre-game routine should give people a good idea why he’s a horse.

    3. It was not a hypothesis, just a question, It is also a question that I read from some baseball publication, not one that I made up. Maybe the author felt as you alluded to… “Maybe, if recovery from TJ surgery resulted in a change in pitching mechanics, but if the Mets let that happen, they weren’t paying attention.” I have no idea, and do not claim to. I make no hypothesis when it comes to medical issues. I have no medical background.

  6. There comes a time when a bad investment becomes a sunk cost. The Dodgers figured out when they couldn’t get anymore value out of Carl Crawford either on the field or via trade. The next player they’re going to have to make that decision on will be Kazmir.

    I believe he will start the season on the DL and either continue to work with Honeycutt or stay back at Camelback. I think he will do a full minor league rehab assignment. He will have to show the Dodgers that his body can not only regain velocity but also be able to physically handle throwing at that velocity without breaking down.

    Kazmir will have to do 5 starts between Rancho and OKC. At that point if he ever gets to that point the Dodgers will have to decide if he has value or if he’s a sunk cost.

  7. Warren Spahn must be turning over in his grave thinking about pitch and innings limits for pitchers. Starting in his age 26 season, for the next 17 years he never pitched less than 245 innings in any one season. During that same time span(or Spahn, as the case might be) he never threw less 16 complete games in any one season. In his 2nd and 3rd minor league seasons, he pitched 212 and 248, innings, respectively. Then he took 3 years off to serve in the military. Perhaps he was a freak of nature. But then again maybe the way pitchers were allowed to pitch back then, allowed them to throw more innings. Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and the others mentioned certainly had very successful careers despite their heavy workload. Maybe Kershaw can be that type of pitcher for the Dodgers.

    1. Heck, at 42, Spahn went 23-9 with a 2.60 ERA in 260 IP – in 1963! A guy who didn’t win his 1st big league game until he was 25 went on to win 363. Getting in lots of work didn’t affect his durability or longevity.

    2. I have made the argument about 300+ IP pitchers as you and Dodgerrick have stated above, and in theory I do not disagree. I do not understand why pitchers cannot pitch to those levels today. The game is changing and I do not have to like it, but I do accept it. One possible explanation is the number of pitches thrown by today’s pitchers before they sign. Most kids today play year round (at least in the warmer geographical locations), and many only play one sport. College baseball is big time now, and coaches need to win to keep their jobs. Do they push their pitchers more than those in prior eras? It might be an interesting study. I know of many kids who play baseball year round and are on two teams during the fall and winter months. I cannot quote any study, just anecdotal observations. One other question (not hypothesis) is whether there has been a significant change in the type of pitches thrown by kids today. When I was in Little League, nobody threw a curve. Most didn’t learn until high school. When I coached Little League I would not let anyone throw a curve. I coached against other pitchers who did (especially at the All Star level). But I have no idea if it is more prevalent today. I suspect that it is, but I cannot point to any study.

      1. AC – I tend to agree as to the playing baseball year round. In my youth, we played baseball whenever we could, but mostly it was to go to the park to play over-the-line. “Organized” baseball was left for baseball season. When it was basketball season, we played basketball – same for football. Most athletes in high school then played a minimum of 3 sports.

        Later, when I began to coach youth baseball and high school baseball, the pay-to-play organizations (travel ball) were just beginning to become popular. Now, they proliferate the youth and high school age groups, convincing parents and players alike that without them, the chances of getting a college scholarship are slim to none. I could rant for a long time about what I think of these organizations. While they have some positive merit, I can say without hesitation, that I’m very glad I’m not the parent of a young girl who wants to play softball or a boy who wants to play baseball. I do not have the time to travel to all the weekend tournaments, etc.

      2. I’m 48 years old. I played for Iowa’s state championship Little League team and got go off to Regionals for the Little League World Series. At that time I didn’t throw a curve, but they started teaching me on the All-Star team. Most of the top pitchers then were starting somewhere between 12 and 14 I would say. Some even at 11 back then. That was Fernando’s rookie season. Funny, i watched and interview with Barry Zito about 2 weeks ago and he said he started throwing his curve at 7 if you can believe that.

        This year I will be coaching a 12U travel ball team. At 8-9 we pretty much just taught them 4-seam fastball. 3 finger grip for those who’s hands were too small. And for some who needed it, we taught them a two seam fastball. I taught my son a change-up at 10 and tried to teach the other pitcher change-ups at 10 and 11. This year I will continue to try to teach them change-ups. However, I’ve told the boys I will teach them a curve IF it is okay with their Dads, they throw strikes with their fastballs, and they keep their elbow up. My son does not keep his elbow where I like it. One of the boys parents actually asked me to teach them. He said that he had no illusions of his boy being a pro and he would like me teach him. Since I was teaching one boy, I told the others that they had to have permission.

        A couple of years ago we faced a kid throwing curves at 10 and I just shook my head. I went to a coaching clinic and former pro pitcher Jim Magrane spoke as well as the doctors at the University of Iowa Sports Medicine clinic. Some of the new studies found that the curve ball wasn’t really any harder on your arm than the fastball if the curveball is thrown properly. They focused on pitch counts and inning limit per age group. How much offseason there should be. What type of drills and excercise, etc. Magrane was also doing personal coaching with one of the boys I coached on a fall ball team this last year. Ironically, the boys father is who did my labrum surgery. The boy was soon turning 13 and spinning the ball. BTW, Magrane was the one who told my that he thought RYU was injured when the Dodgers signed him. Jim had just got done pitching in Korea.

        Anyways, I’m just trying to give background on what’s going on these days and when kids are learning. Ideally a boy can mix up the type of fastball grips and learn a change-up. That is sufficient in my opinion, but some boys just can’t thrown the change up near the plate.

        1. Hawkeye, sounds like you are a great coach. I was just having the same conversation with my 9 year old. He said all his little league buddies are throwing curveballs and he sees pitchers throwing curveballs with his older brother’s high school travel ball teams. I told him that he should learn to throw a changeup instead. At first he kept slowing down his arm speed, but when I convinced him to do the same as a fastball, but with a different grip, he threw one that came in at the same trajectory as a fastball but then dropped in the dirt after crossing the plate. He was disappointed because it bounced in the dirt and I had a tough time convincing him that the pitch would be effective LOL.

          1. Thank you, I’ve told my son that I would rather see the change-up bounce in the dirt than float the change up in there up in the zone. When they strike out a few they understand, but leaving one up that gets pounded reinforces our point even more. My son is on a AA team that is flirting with AAA except they play USSSA not Little League. He’s not a real hard thrower, but he and another boy on the team are real effective when the ball is down and they throw strikes. He just has to get ahead in the count so he can throw the change up. It’s tough because at 12 many of them do need a second pitch because most can’t just blow the ball by everyone, but as a coach you don’t want to risk injury to them. The one thing the curve ball can do is teach them that they have to extend and reach, but I’d rather see them throw a change-up if they can.

  8. I like Bums point about the bunt hits. Not only will the 30 bunt hits do wonders for his average, but if they stop shifting on him, he gets back all the pull-side hard hits that he lost due to the shift (the most dramatic example of this is AGON – it seems like every game he hits one hard up the middle or in the 3-4 hole that gets countered by the shift).
    .
    If Joc winds up batting 8th, then it shouldn’t matter that he’s not a threat to steal. It’s interesting that the Dodgers coaches don’t teach their players to read the pitcher better. I know FAZ tends to discourage stealing but this lineup has great fastball hitters and the threat of a steal is a great way to force the pitcher to throw more fastballs.

    1. Knight

      Joc needs to get in his head, to make sure he places the bunt, just down the third base line, and try not to rush out of the batter’s box, so soon.

      Because if he places it properly, he will make it to first, easily.

      And if he is going to do that, he needs to get it down now.

      Because he seems to make the same mistake, every time he tries to bunt.

      And he has to be all in, if he is going to bunt.

      1. MJ – this makes total sense. Joc does seem like he’s running to first before the ball hits his bat – which results in a foul or worse, a popup foul. I think Joc, like every young hitter at every level, is in love with the long ball.

  9. AC – What’s your starting rotation at OKC to begin the season… I’m imagining the AAA players are earnestly waiting to face em!!

  10. Nice post Bums, good points made. I think all of the starters could use extra time between starts except Kershaw. Roberts said he won’t go with a 6 man rotation but it makes some sense. It would either leave the bullpen or the bench a man short so perhaps using the 10 day DL and the shuttle makes even more sense for the brain trust. If they all stay healthy it’s a bit clogged up for now. I think Joc would get to about 10 bunt hits and they would stop shifting. What a great way for the USA to win their first WBC in Dodger Stadium with a dominating performance by Stroman. Nice way to go out for Leyland too. 300 innings is a thing of the past but I miss the old days of a 4 man rotation. More spots for more average pitchers and many more teams with rotations to fill. Koufax, Drysdale, Osteen and Sutton was a hell of a rotation back in the day even though it lasted just one year in 1966. 3 Hall of Famers!

  11. Interesting AB by Puig watching the gametacker. After Joc and Grandal failed to score two baserunners, Puig was up with runner’s on 2nd and 3rd. After going 0-2, I believe, he fouled off a slider, he took a curve in the dirt, and he took a change-up in the dirt. At 2-2 he singled to RF to score two runs and advanced to 2nd on a throwing error. Without seeing it with my eyes it appears to be the type of AB’s the coaches would be looking for. I don’t know how well the ball was hit, but he didn’t let the pitcher get himself out.

    1. I was wondering about puig, It looks like he is bored in the out field.Maybe the in field would be more exciting for him.No room in LA so maybe a trade. Would hate to loose him.

      1. So many things wrong with this post:

        1. Bored in the OF? What manifestations have you seen to draw this conclusion.
        2. Even if the IF was “more exciting” what in the world makes you think he could play any position on the IF?
        3. LOSE not LOOSE

  12. Mark – Anyone – Help… Can you give me the starting rotation for OKC opening day… Thanks

    1. It won’t be DeLeon, Dejong, Oaks, Sborz, and Stewart like I would have guessed a few months ago.

      You would think that Oaks and Stewart will be in the rotation unless Oaks makes the pen. A lot depends on Ryu. AAA on rehab or in LA for Ryu. I’m guessing Sborz will start in the rotation at OKC unless they’ve seen enough to know they want to now groom him for the Dodgers pen. Fabio Castillo possibly holding a spot.

    2. I am not going to steal his thunder. Always Complete is going to have a blog on that Saturday!

      Stay tuned!

Comments are closed.