Let’s Cut to the Chase…

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1. I really don’t want to talk about the TRADE anymore mostly because the argument was mostly black and white instead of identifying the alternatives and letting history tell us how well those alternatives would have worked out. The Dodgers probably would have signed Tanaka if the Trade hadn’t been made and maybe Hanley Ramirez would have played first base and still be there.
   .
   I have never liked a pitcher that threw hard without control. Hitters have to survive the lower minor leagues because that is where those kind of pitchers exist. When those throwers develop command and control then and only then will I like them. I have already said a couple of times that I liked the most recent trade so I won’t say more here.
   .
   I always like to have players that are in the organization that intrigue me but haven’t proven themselves yet. Jackson and Taylor intrigue me. If they wind up with plus OBP and have a knack for delivering a clutch hit like Bill Russel, they could be the near future middle infielders for the Dodgers. Add Will Smith at catcher, Bellinger at first, Toles in LF, move Seager to third, and keep Joc and Puig in CF and RF and the Dodgers will have speed throughout their lineup.

   1. I understand why THE TRADE was done, but this is what happens with deals like that. You end up handcuffed because you are paying $43 million to Crawford (who is out of baseball) and Gonzo, who is a great man… in decline.
      –
      Look at some of the Free Agent Deals:
      Cueto looks good so far, but do you really believe he will stay injury-free?
      David Price was so-so last year and now may need TJ.
      Zack Geinke: we all know what happened there!
      .
      Those big dollar deals rarely pan out. If McCarthy, Anderson or Kazmir end up blowing up, you are not crippled.

2. But, but, FAZ is some small town yokels who fell off a turnip truck! Aren’t they???? C’mon, they don’t know they are now in LA, and not the small markets they came from! Yeah, that is what some say!

   You didn’t mention how FAZ acquired DeJong.

   Jul 2, 2015: The Dodgers utilized their vast financial resources to essentially buy two prospects from the Blue Jays on Thursday, acquiring pitcher Chase DeJong and infielder Tim Locastro from Toronto for three international bonus pool slots.

   The Dodgers traded international slots No. 27 ($545,900), No. 57 ($368,700) and No. 117 ($156,700), worth a total of $1,071,300 in bonus pool money, which allows the Blue Jays a larger limit. For the Dodgers, who have already blown past their limit with at least five reported signings on the first day of the international signing period, this just means they will pay an extra $1,071,300 in overage tax.

   1. Excellent point!
      .
      I remember when many of us were in love with Eric Stults. I rooted for him because of his “story.”
      .
      When he went elsewhere, fans were aghast.
      .
      I was against THE TRADE because I felt Crawford would be a boat anchor, but I do admit that I expected Webster and De La Rosa to be better. It turned out we did not lose much – just a bunch of Benjamins!

3. New Video Update ABOVE

4. Bum… There will be no moratorium on the TRADE… This is MT’s Tourette syndrome…
   Even with the error yesterday, I still can’t remember a Blue IF with softer hands than Taylor…

   1. Agree on Taylor. Tourettes Syndrome is no joke, but this was a funny scene:
      .
      

      1. Thanks Mark. That was very educational and I believe most who watched that clip came away with empathy for those that have Tourrettes or other challenges that make life more difficult. Too many times we look at what makes us different but in the end, we all have more in common than we realize.

5. TODAY’S GAME IS TELEVISED ONLINE ON MLB.COM

   1. Mark

      How do you get the thread for the game?

      You don’t have to have MLB TV to get that, do you?

      1. You have to go here and signup:
         http://mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?product=mlbtv
         –
         I pay it monthly. I have the Major and Minor league packages so I can watch the kids too. I think it’s $31 a month.
         –
         Dollar a day!

         1. Mark

            Thanks I thought it might be free, because they offer free games, sometimes.

            But I did get MLB TV in 2015, because you explained how to get it, and how to avoid the black out.

            And you were the only site, that had the guts, to explain how to do that, so thanks, for that!

            I have the Dodger channel now, but they don’t show every game.

6. I thought we were trying to win a World Series, not be champions of the prospect league. All I can see is that we traded a bona fide, high end STARTING PITCHER for a middle infielder from Stanford (who cares?)who will probably be ok for Tampa Bay in the next trade and who the team has absolutely no need for. Along with another of those Chapman wanna bees, who can’t find the plate,when we have our closer under contract for a long time. There is no such thing as a pitcher being “stuck in the system.” De Jong earned a shot with the big team, and now he will get it. In Seattle. He will join that decrepit Iwakuma, who was so injured that we cut him loose after signing him and who won, I think, 14+ games for the Mariners last year. Starting pitchers in the big leagues don’t grow on trees, but these suits seem to think they do. Except for Urias, of course, who is so much better than everyone else that they are afraid to pitch him. A lot of these moves have to do with the team being stuck with big contracts for veteran starters, who are injury risks and who no one else wants. Who is responsible for that? With that, I’m moving on from the most recent trade and won’t comment more on it.

   1. Andrew Friedman is trying to do two things:
      .
      1. Win a World Series; and
      .
      2. Keep building the farm monster!
      .
      Those things are not mutually exclusive. You do them both at once..
      .
      There were two chances that Chase De Jong would have pitched for LA this year:
      1. Slim
      2. None
      .
      He was never a part of the plan to win a World Series. He was part of the overall farm system plan.

   2. No.

      I want more posts like this from Bobbie17!

      Maybe one every three or four hours?

      Please.

7. There are certainly reasons to think that Chase De Jong was undervalued. His ceiling is a back of the rotation and could be considered an innings-eater, which is exactly what you hope for from a #5. Every team needs a #5. But he was never going to be a top of the rotation for a contender. That does not make him a bad pitcher, it just does not separate him from a larger pool of RHSP. He is also a fan favorite, but that should have zero impact on whether he is traded.
   .
   Chase had a great AA campaign at Tulsa, earning Texas League Pitcher of the Year, but he is still rated the fifth best RHSP in the M’s prospect pipeline. Andrew Moore, Max Povse, and Rob Whalen are all rated higher than Chase, each with a ceiling of #4, and very closely approximate De Jong’s age. Whalen has ML experience (2016). Nick Neidert is the highest rated, but he is only 20 and has a ways to go (also with a ceiling projection of #4).
   .
   Per MLBPipeline scouting report:
   “De Jong’s results are more impressive than his pure stuff, headlined by a downer curveball that’s his lone above-average pitch. His four-seam fastball has below-average velocity at 88-92 mph, yet it plays better than that as hitters haven’t been able to barrel it consistently. He also mixes in a fringy cutter and changeup.

   DeJong’s delivery creates some deception without detracting from his ability to throw strikes. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher with little margin for error, so he’s vulnerable to home runs. While he doesn’t have a high ceiling, he has performed well in the Minors and will get a chance to prove himself in Triple-A this year.” They do not even rate his ceiling, only that it is not high.
   .
   Who can replace De Jong? Trevor Oaks/Josh Sborz/Andrew Sopko. Steamer projects them all just about equal. Oaks has performed well at AAA, so his value would be higher, and Sopko and Sborz were summer promotions to Tulsa after very good early months at Rancho, so not as high as Chase. They are all projected to be innings-eaters back of the rotation types. Although Sborz could very well return to be a high leverage late innings reliever. This excludes Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling, both of whom may start the year at OKC. I hope that Chase De Jong has a long and stellar career in Seatlle, but he was not going to have one in LA.
   .
   I have no idea whether Drew Jackson will ever be a ML player. He certainly was not acquired to play SS in LA. But Tulsa has no SS, and neither Gavin Lux nor Brendan Davis are anywhere close to being ready. He is a player for a position of need. Maybe he develops into an average ML hitter, maybe not. He does have better defensive potential and base-running skills than Kike’/Taylor/Culberson. Just as a #5 SP is needed, so is a quality utility player who can play SS.
   .
   Zabala is the real unknown, Keith Law (some like him, some do not) says he is the only true prospect in the deal. The Dodgers organization has very good pitching instructors. I followed Great Lakes a lot last year, and their pitchers became very good with K/BB ratios. Maybe Bobby Cuellar can work some magic with Zabala. His ceiling is as a closer, but who knows if he will ever make it, as he has yet to pitch above rookie league.

   1. Good take.

8. I think Bobbie’s main point, was this.

   We have veteran pitchers, that are injury prone, that other teams, just don’t want.

   And because of this, they seem to be blocking some of our young pitchers, and taking up roster space, that would be better served, for our young pitchers, or players.

   And that is frustrating, for some.

   1. And maybe Bobbie saw what I did, from the Mariner’s GM.

      The Mariner’s GM said that they have been trying to get De Jong, for a long time.

   2. If De Jong were to be in the rotation THIS year, it would likely mean that Kershaw, Hill, Urias, Maeda, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Stripling and Stewart all were injured and if that happened we are screwed anyway.
      .
      The other aspect is this:
      Buehler, Alvarez, Oaks, Sborz, Sheffield, White and Sopko were moving past or close to him as we speak. I wish him well, but I think FAZ sold high!

      1. Mark

         Personally the only thing that would worry me, if some of our pitchers that are rated better, would get hurt.

         You just never know, with pitchers.

   3. As opposed to being blocked by Mariner veteran injury prone pitchers? There was no injury prone pitcher that was blocking De Jong, but let’s assume your premise is correct. The only way McCarthy finds the rotation is if he is lights out during ST (mixed results today – Goldy is going to hit a lot HR’s this year, so no shame). The same with Ryu. So the only injury prone pitcher you might be referring to is Scott Kazmir. But then let’s also assume that Kaz has a horrible ST but FAZ wants him to remain the #5. There might be an argument that one of Wood/Stewart/Stripling/Oaks is being blocked by Kaz, but not De Jong. By the time Chase is ready to crack the rotation, both Buehler and Alveraz will pass him pushing him further down.
      .
      De Jong is not listed as one of the 8 SP on the Mariner depth chart. And with Povse and Whalen both rated ahead of Chase that would make Chase their #11 SP. Paxton/Smyly/Gallardo/Heston (3, 4, 5, & 7 respectively) have all had their share of injuries. Chase is going to have an easier shot at cracking the M’s rotation, but it is still going to take a lot of guys dropping before him.
      .
      These are hard things to write because I truly truly like Chase De Jong. I am a minor league junkie, and I have known about Chase since his High School days in Long Beach, and committing to my Trojans at USC. I continued to follow him after being drafted in 2nd Round by Blue Jays, and was thrilled when the Dodgers grabbed him for an International Slot. I guess that sort of indicates what Toronto thought of his ceiling. I wish Chase De Jong nothing but success. I hope he has a long career, but it was never going to be with the Dodgers because of the arms they are loading up with in the minors.

      1. you don’t think that Hill is injury prone? really?

         1. Do you really think that Hill is blocking any of those guys? Okay let’s continue with that premise. Hill and Kazmir replaced by two of Wood/Stewart/Stripling. De Jong is still not in the picture. Since Kershaw has been on the DL twice now, I assume that he is also injury prone. Still De Jong is not there. Next, Maeda goes down, and Oaks is called up. Now… next man up is De Jong. That would be devastating since Kershaw/Hill/Maeda/Kazmir/McCarthy/Ryu and one of Urias/Wood/Stewart/Stripling/Oaks would all be out at the same time before De Jong finds the rotation. Not likely.
            .
            I have no problem with people not liking the trade. It was hard for me to accept. MJ has never liked the Trio…McCarthy/Anderson/Kazmir, and I can respect that. I do not necessarily agree with her, but that does make her wrong or me right, just a difference of opinion on their perceived value and purpose. But to take it to the next level that those three along with Hill blocked the likes of Chase De Jong is just not credible.

            1. See my comment below. I was not implying that DeJong was being blocked by Hill – merely that the Braintrust’s tendency to sign the injury-prone was continued by signing Hill. Rich Hill has thrown over 120 innings once in his career (2007). He managed 110 innings last year – his 2nd largest innings total. He has been on the DL countless times. Last year it wasn’t just the famous blister – it was also a groin strain.

            2. AC

               First I was just trying to explain, how Bobbie might feel.

               And I am certainlynot the only one, that have not been
               impressed, with those three, pitchers.

               And for good reason.

               McCarthy has not been off the bench much at all, since he joined the team.

               And Kazmir hasn’t pitched well, at all.

               And he made it be known last year, that he didn’t want to be on the Dodgers, anymore.

               He has also made excuses, instead of taking responsibility, for himself.

               He tried to say that Roberts, and the Dodgers, didn’t allow him to pitch further, into games, as if, he pitched well enough, to pitch further, into games.

               He almost never pitched well, enough, to pitch beyond five innings, in most of his starts, and sometimes, he couldn’t pitch even pitch, five innings.

               Roberts had to take him out, because he was constantly, ineffective.

               And I have been a big supporter of Hill, because Hill has a much higher upside, then those other three, pitchers.

               And I never said that De Gong, would be on the major league team.

               And I don’t think, that Bobbie was trying to say that, either.

               I think he was just saying that a team, can never have to many young pitchers, in there system.

               Because of injury and other things, so he was just concerned.

               And AC I have always respected, anything you say!

            3. MJ, I know you are not alone as to how you feel about McCarthy/Anderson/Kazmir, and I absolutely understand why you and others feel as you do. I did not mean to imply otherwise. I fully respect your point of view. I know I am in the minority

9. Good to see Brandon McCarthy in Mid-Season form!

10. I’m watching one game and have the other on Gameday. Hill gave up 3 runs AND GOT LIFTED MID-INNING. That doesn’t sound good.

    1. Mark, I wouldn’t worry about Hill. his bad outing could just be something as simple as a blister.

       1. Bum

          You couldn’t help yourself, could you?

          1. Nope.

             1. Bum

                I thought I would say this.

                I haven’t seen more then a few games, but Joc did look good, when he hit that HR.

                He was very steady on his feet, and didn’t look off balance, at all.

                I was pleasantly, suprised.

       2. Yeah, that will only cost him a start or 20.

11. I still think that MLB has fallen in love with the fastball. You don’t have to throw 100MPH to be effective. I have no idea whether DeJong is all that or whether he will ever be, but I’m pretty sure that Randy Jones won a Cy Young Award throwing a 77 MPH fastball, so the fact that DeJong throws 88-90 doesn’t turn me off by itself. Whether Zabala, who can throw 100 but can’t throw strikes, will ever be any good – no one knows that either. I don’t have a dog in this particular hunt. It sounds to me that 3 guys who will probably never make an impact in MLB were traded so I really don’t know what the big deal is.
    –
    I saw McCarthy pitch briefly. He was only throwing 88-90 which is only a big deal because he usually throws harder than that, but it was only his 1st spring start. On the other hand it didn’t look to me that he was finishing his pitches and he gave up n HR on an up fastball to Dodgerkiller Goldschmidt. I hope the yips aren’t coming back.

12. Just watched Mike Ahmed younger brother of Nick, hit a triple and then score a run, against his brother’s team.
    Didn’t even know he was in our system!

13. Per Houston Mitchell, LA Times:
    “I can already see some of the emails I will be getting: “You are just a Dodgers apologist!” No, believe me, if I were, they would actually allow me to do a reader Q&A with Andrew Friedman instead of denying the interview because what I write hurts their feelings sometimes. I am just a Dodgers fan who would love to see his favorite team on TV every night.”

    So what – does Friedman control media access and only grant interviews to homers?

14. Great info out there yesterday and today on chats:

    First Keith Law:

    Cedric: Any thoughts on the DeJong/Zabala trade?
    Klaw: I answered this on Twitter by linking to my Mariners report. Zabala is the only real prospect in the deal.

    Then Jim Callis of Baseball America had a Q&A on Twitter, he wrote:

    Alvarez will be a starter. Cy Young Award ceiling. Great stuff, more advanced than expected. @Dodgers #top30prospects

    The @Dodgers are very excited about Mitchell White. Could move very quickly. Will there be room in rotation when he gets to LA? We’ll see.

    Two prospects who may make the biggest jump in the LAD system are RHP A.J. Alexy or LHP Caleb Ferguson. @Dodgers #top30prospects

    I think Calhoun has little chance to stick at 2B & winds up in OF. Omar Estevez is @Dodgers 2B of future. I haven’t talked to a scout outside org who thinks Calhoun can play 2B. Calhoun in prime (this is best guess, not ceiling): 25 HR, 0 SB, 350 OBP. @Dodgers #top30prospects

    Ariel Sandoval has some interesting power potential, not sure he’ll hit enough to tap into it. @Dodgers

    And finally, Jeff Sullivan had a chat on Fan Graphs

    9:59
    Dave Kingman: Will having Logan Forsythe at the top of the Dodgers lineup be better for Seager than Utley/Kendrick of last year?
    9:59
    Jeff Sullivan: Last year’s Dodgers leadoff hitters batted .259/.332/.398. Logan Forsythe is better than those statistics

    1. Bluto

       Thanks!

    2. Thanks Bluto,
       –
       I try and scout out that stuff, but have been busy and appreciate you posting it. Good stuff!

    3. Caleb Ferguson had an eye opening year in 2016 at Great Lakes. 50 IP with 41K, 3BB, and 3HR with a GO/AO of 1.58. 3 walks in 50IP. The batted ball is staying on the ground and not leaving the yard. He is only 20 with 50 IP in full season A Ball. Because he is 20, and with so few IP last year, he may return to Great Lakes to start the year, but he should find himself in Rancho before too long. That will be a good test for him.

       AJ Alexy is the 2016 version of Imani Abdullah. High School pitcher selected in the 11th round and paid excess slot money saved from picks 1-10. They tried it also with their #12 in 2016 with Graham Ashcraft (another RHP), but could not sign him. I can see Alexy starting in AZL, quick promotion to Ogden, and finish the year in Great Lakes. That would be a solid year for a 19 year old; the same route as Caleb in 2016.

       1. AC

          It is a lot harder, to be in the minority, and I appreciate anything, I can learn from you.

          1. MJ,
             .
             I don’t fault how you feel about McCarthy, Kaz and Anderson. I know you don’t do it to be mean or contrary like some may do. If you feel that way, FINE!
             –
             We got a good year out of Anderson and a bad year.
             –
             Kaz won 10 games last year but mostly was a dud.
             –
             If McCarthy and/or Kazmir comes back this year, you will change your mind. If not, I’ll change mine.

       2. Ferguson and Alexy are in the pipeline as is Abdullah – none are in the Top 30 Prospects. I tend to trust Baseball America the most on their prospect rankings.
          –
          They had Chase De Jong at #25, behind the following pitchers:
          #22 Yasiel Sierra
          #19 Mitchell White
          #18 Josh Sborz
          #17 Grant Dayton
          #14 Trevor Oaks
          #13 Dustin May
          #12 Jordon Sheffield
          #11 Walker Buehler
          #8 Brock Stewart
          #2 Yadier Alvarez
          –
          All except Dayton and Sierra are starters. Sborz might be converted to a reliever. Do the math!

          1. I agree with you on Baseball America. I used to get 3 subscriptions and color code them. I know I am a little obsessed & strange. I think Sborz does end up in the pen. This will probably account for Stewart’s rookie year, so he should be out next year. I think Buehler and Alveraz are destined for top 10 RHP and to 20 overall for next year. I am most high on Buehler. He has 3 plus pitches with an average change, with plus command. His change is coming fast, and when it does, that will give him 4 plus pitches. That is Chris Sale like. He still has to do it on the field, but he is going to be fun to watch.
             .
             I also will be watching Jordan Sheffield a lot. He has three plus pitches but lacks control. His changeup is outstanding, and reminds me of a Jharel Cotton, except with a higher ceiling. I will expect a few more high potential prospect pitchers in the June Amateur draft. With this compilation of pitching talent, FAZ will have a lot of ammunition to go for it if they want to at the trade deadline. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Jose Quintana in Dodger Blue.

15. Hey Mark, you made a great point earlier about Friedman trying to win a World Series and build a farm system monster, at the same time, one of THE most difficult things to do in this day and age in baseball. Some of the FAZ haters out there are not doing the research or looking back about 5 or 6 years ago about the state of the farm system and the franchise as a whole. I plead guilty, I was not a FAZ fan for most of the last couple of years, especially when they hired Roberts. I was a Donnie Baseball guy, and I thought they kicked him to the curb through all the smoke and mirrors. But doing some serious soul searching myself, it is still seared into my mind the Mets play-off series, when they got up on us early in the that last game and you could just see the air come out of the dugout. Let’s not forget Ethier getting pissed off at Mattingley in the dug out and in front of the TV cameras telling Donnie to “Just manage the Fu$@#ing game” or something like that. That would NEVER happen on Roberts watch, which is why I was totally wrong about him. Roberts is the real deal, and FAZ made that call. Also, amongst all the bitchin and crying by some of the bloggers, the Dodgers have quietly built a future powerhouse through their farm system for years to come. I live amongst a bunch of Giant fans up here in Paso Robles, and they are real quiet this year, they know the Dodgers are loaded with a bunch of young guns coming up, I am on the FAZ team, and even though they will whiff on some deals now and then, the body of work the last couple of years, plus the total coup of signing Dave Roberts is hard to argue with. We are in good hands,

    1. Nobody gets everything right, but what they doing OVERALL is incredible!
       We are close.
       We might be there!

    2. By the way I love SLO. It’s a beautiful area. I have a vendor and a friend there and occasionally pass through.

       I know that Paso Robles is close to SLO.
       –
       http://cwtozone.com/

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