is this what insanity looks like?
When you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results, you are a moron... and insane!
Well, the Dodgers acquired the best pitcher in baseball (allegedly), and he sucks... presumably, because the Dodgers are cursed!
Tony Jackson was thankful for a plug for the Substack platform he writes on. He intends to get back into journalism and is on his way. I will likely hook up with him in Glendale next Spring. He did have one take that I am starting to agree with (I wish I wasn't in agreement). Tony said this:
"I think we can forget about a 3-peat. This team is old, tired, and can't hit its way out of a paper bag. If they didn't already have such a big lead with such a short time to go, I'm not sure they would even make the playoffs. Both of their big free-agent signings are a bust; Ohtani is a mental mess at the plate; Mookie is done; Freddie is old. And have you noticed how the Tigers have crept back into playoff contention AFTER the Skubal trade?"
So... is that what is happening to the Dodgers? I think it is happening right before our eyes. Take a look at this chart:
Yet, Mookie continues to hit 5th. Why? Because he is getting paid $30+ million a year and is owed $167 million over the next 6 years. Where a player hits should not be a factor based upon money. It should be based upon merit! Mookie is a stand-up guy and a wonderful teammate, but all accounts, you have to be honest when looking at his decline. It's huge, it's steady, and it doesn't seem likely that it will change. The definition of insanity is doing what you have always done and expecting a different outcome. It ain't happening!
Mookie will have an occasional good game because of his experience, but the results are what you see... and they are likely to get worse. Mookie should hit #9. Sorry, but that's the cold, hard truth. Sadly, Mookie is not the biggest problem. The Dodgers are aging... big time. There are only two guys who destroy the idea that 37 automatically means you're finished:
Chris Sale at 37 is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.
Aroldis Chapman at 38 is one of baseball's best closers.
Paul Goldschmidt at 38 and Miggy Rojas at 37 are still producing respectable-to-good offense. The 2026 MLB average OPS is roughly .721, so Goldschmidt's .758 is clearly above average, and Rojas' .728 is essentially league average before even considering his defensive/utility value.
What's striking, though, is that pitchers dominate the successful 37+ group. There aren't many position players that old still hitting at a high level.
Freddie Freeman is still productive, but will be 37 on September 12th. I love Freddie Freeman, but I don't want to see him sign another 2-year deal. Decline is absolutely certain. Freddie will be 38-years-old when his deal is up after 2027. To me, it's more important that the Dodgers win than Freddie going into the HOF as a Dodger. Also, Teoscar Hernandez and Kyle Tucker are each playing like a 4th outfielder. Both can be clocked with a sundial in a race and are both subpar defensively. Both are OPSing below .728... yet paid like superstars.
I believe that if you removed Betts, Teoscar, and Tucker from the equation, some mix of the following players would be just as effective... no... MORE EFFECTIVE: DePaula, Sirota, Tibbs III, Davalan, Ehrhard, and Miller.
Max Muncy may have another decent year in him and should be renewed. His contract is very team-friendly. Shohei is also aging... likely he will not pitch many more seasons. The Dodgers are not likely to win again this year UNLESS the pitching is absolutely healthy and they PITCH their way into it. Evan Phillips is rounding into form...
For God's sake, give Wrobo some rest! He is gassed - mentally and physically. He has more innings pitched this year than the last two combined. I'm sure he says he's fine... he's not, and the league is on to him always being in the zone. He needs to evolve... He will be in the rotation next year. Send him to the pen and get him so/me rest!
I think that on September 1st, the Dodgers should call up Josue DePaula and Mike Sirota. Put Alex Call and someone else on waivers. This might be the jolt of youth the Dodgers need.
BA's Latest DODGER'S Top 30
DSL LAD Bautista 5 – DSL Braves 4 – 11 innings
DSL LAD Bautista fell behind early. In the first inning the DSL Braves slugged a 2-run HR for a quick 2-0 lead. In the 2nd there was a BB, and errant pickoff throw and a 2-out single for a 3-0 lead.
The score stayed 3-0 until the bottom of the 8th. 2B Angel Guzman led off with a single. RF Fran-Jean Haseth drew a 1 out BB, as did CF Rubel Arias. 1B Haram Hernandez hit a 2-out bases clearing double (8) to tie the game.
Neither team scored in the 9th or 10th. The DSL Braves got a 2 out single to drive in the free runner in the 11th for a 4-3 lead.
In the 11th, the DSL Braves got a 2-out single to score the free runner.
In the bottom of the 11th, C Oliver Chapman was the free runner. He tried to score from 2nd on a WP but was thrown out at the plate. 3B Jhosman Theran walked and LF Jeibert Rondon was HBP. The runners pulled off a double steal. With 2 outs, SS Ezequiel Melburne singled home 2 for the walkoff win.
· Angel Guzman – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run
· Ezequiel Melburne – 2-6 1 RBI
· Doubles – Rubel Arias (7), Haram Hernandez (8)
DSL Athletics 15 – DSL LAD Mega 7
DSL LAD Mega scored 1st. In the 2nd, three singles by 3B Luis Tovar, LF Rafy Peguero, and C Jose Rivas scored the game’s 1st run.
The DSL Athletics rolled of 15 unanswered runs until the 8th inning. Tovar, Peguero, 2B Juan Macero, and Rivas all drew leadoff walks, scoring their 2nd run, leaving the bases loaded. 1B Ezequiel Aparicio singled home Peguero. Macero scored on a WP, and the other 2 runners moved up. DH Antoni Urena walked to load the bases. Rivas scored on a groundout. CF Helvin Mendoza singled home Aparicio, and Tovar singled home Urena for the final run.
· CF Helvin Mendoza – 2-5, 1 RBI
· 3B Luis Tovar – 3-3, 2 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI
· LF Rafy Peguero – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run
· 1B Ezequiel Aparicio – 2-4, 1 BB, 1 run
· SS Luis Luna – double (15)
Discussion (105)
Disagree, not disagreeable
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I forgot to mention how much I have become a fan of Tommy Edman. The catch he made in left was spectacular. Teo would have no shot at catching that ball. He went a mile for that sure double and maybe triple. (oh yeah, Monday was quick to point out that Pages was not backing up the play and it was a sure triple if the ball got to the wall. I think that comment was bullshit, as I'm not sure Pages can be expected to be backing up a left fielder on that ball down the line - but Monday doesn't like Pages) I like Edman at the bottom of the order to set up Ohtani but back in the day, he was a perfect 2 hole hitter.
As a fan, I enjoy pulling for young players like Freeland. I can see myself rooting for Sirota. I pull for Stone, Sheehan, and Wrobleski.
Putting on a GM hat, I probably want as many proven players as I can get.
As an owner, I want attendance.
Fans generally like Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Hernandez(s), Ohtani, Yamamoto. Whoever replaces them better get fan love quickly or the Dodgers better keep winning.
The Dodgers are constructed for slug (HR's), and it seems like the team is experiencing a seasonal power outage which is supported by the data:
HR Every X At-Bats Player 2024 2025 2026 Max Muncy 1 HR / 15.8 AB 1 / 16.5 AB 1 / 16.3 AB Mookie Betts 1 / 23.7 AB 1 / 29.5 AB 1 / 24.5 AB Freddie Freeman 1 / 24.6 AB 1 / 23.2 AB 1 / 29.2 AB Teoscar Hernández 1 / 17.8 AB 1 / 20.4 AB 1 / 26.8 AB
As of today,the Dodgers are tied with the Braves for the second seed and a bye with the exact same records of 71-48. The one problem is the Braves are 2-1 against us with three games remaining in Atlanta. If overall records are the same at season's end,the determining factor will be head to head matchup. Being the 3 seed is another round of games like last year against the Reds,the best of 3 with ALL games at the number 3's home field. I prefer the bye and less games with this older roster.
Thanks Mark for the look at Mookie's decline in the past three years. I wanted to take a look at Mookie's contract and see if the Dodgers made a good decision. Baseball Reference has Mookie making $202.5M in the next six years. So I'm going to go with that figure.
Including this season, Mookie will have been paid $190M in seven years. His WAR for those seven years is 34.3. Badger has expressed in the past that each WAR point is worth approximately $8M. Jeff, I believe, has mentioned between $8-10M. I'll go with the $8M figure. In that case the WAR of 34.3 times $8M comes to $274.4M. But, Mookie received $190M. Using the WAR analysis the Dodgers have underpaid Mookie by $84.4M so far.
So, what is the prognosis for the remaining six years? So far in 2026 Mookie has a 1.5 WAR. I'm going to be generous and project a 2 WAR average for the remaining six years. That will be a total of 12 WAR at $8M per WAR and a value of $96M. Mookie will be paid $202.5M. Therefore, an overpayment of $106.5M.
The first seven years the Dodgers underpaid Mookie $84.4M. The next six years the Dodgers will overpay Mookie by approximately $106.5M. So, over the 13 year contract the Dodgers will have overpaid by $22M. To most of us that's a lot of money. For Guggenheim, it's a rounding error. I'd say, for a 13 year contract, the FO will have done a good job in establishing Mookie's value to the team. However, it could be a painful and frustrating six years to watch.
With an average WAR of 4.9 so far with the Dodgers Mookie as a player has been worth the expense. As mentioned yesterday he has had some bad luck with injuries and illness. I believe the move to the infield was a factor in his offensive decline. The chances are high that his decline will continue, but at what degree? Mookie has a lot of pride and in 3-4 years may just retire with a settlement. He will have made over $400M in his career.
Mookie Betts arrived as a true "superstar" position player for the Dodgers and their fans. After so many postseason failures and disappointments his arrival brought a World Series championship right out of the gate in his first season with the Dodgers. Although he didn't prominently excel in the past two WS victories he was still a valuable veteran presence. It's hard to put a value on that.
Carry on.
I totally disagree about Betts. I think most of his problems at the plate are really mental right now. Lack of confidence and the fact that he has hit a lot of balls right at people. Diminished skills, maybe some, but you do not forget how to hit overnight. I think his mechanics are not in sync. As for the teams hitting, they won the last two World Series not by outhitting their opponents but by outpitching a defending them. Dodger pitching right now does have an Achilles heel. They have given up almost as many homers as the team has hit, 151-143. Saski leads the team with 21 bombs. Sheehan had 20 before he went down. Wrobo all of a sudden has 17. Dreyer's 7 leads the pen.
Question for those who are experienced as players and coaches--- We often see pitchers who were hard 'throwers' in the beginning of their careers, change and become 'pitchers' later on to adjust to their diminished physical ability. So what about hitters? Ok I don't see someone like Max ever being able to change, but what about a really athletic guy like Mookie? He was able to 'slug' when younger even though he is a 'little' guy. So is is attitude that I am just a 'little' off, and if I am healthy I will be back as good as new, or can he change his approach and try to be a 'contact' hitter guy. He already doesn't strike out a lot. I don't want to compare anyone to Freddie but he just had a 15 game hitting streak without any home runs. As if he is adjusting to age/injuries/ aches and pains!!
Could this be a possibility:
C - Smith/Feduccia 1B - Freeman 2B - Edman SS - Betts 3B - Muncy LF - Tucker/Teoscar CF - Pages RF - Ohtani DH - Rushing
Ohtani has already played RF... just not a lot!
Nick Perez at #18 seems high
“Dave Roberts says that Tyler Glasnow hopefully needs 3 more rehab starts before he re-joins the Dodgers.”
I completely agree with you, but I doubt Betts will bat ninth; Freeman will almost certainly get another contract with the Dodgers, just like Muncy, and Teo will remain in left field next season. I just don't see how, when, or where the Dodgers will begin that much-discussed "getting younger" process.