So, when a General Manager makes a trade, they automatically go to their list of MLB’s TOP 100 Prospects and then check Baseball America’s TOP 100 Prospects. Oh, and then they check all the articles that Keith Law, John Sickels, Ben Badler and Will Carroll write about the player or players and then maybe the conversation goes something like this:
“Hey wait, the Dodgers offered us a #29 and a #36 prospect and you guys didn’t offer us a player in the TOP 100. We are going with the Dodgers offer.”
If you believe it works anything like that, I would like to talk to your about this bridge that I have. It was only driven on by a little old lady to church on Sunday. Making trades works nothing like that at all. You see, baseball teams have scouts, consultants and special advisors who collaborate with the GM as to what they think of any certain player’s talent level and how they fit with that team’s needs.
I did not think much of the prospects the D-Bags traded to the Tigers for JD Martinez, but here’s what we don’t know: Maybe the Tigers valued those players a lot higher that I did, BA did and the MLB Top 100 List did. Maybe they believed those players filled positions within their organization better than other offers. Maybe the Dodgers didn’t even offer anything for JD Martinez, because they did not want to upset the team chemistry… after all the team is on a holy tear like nothing we have ever seen for quite some time.
And… while I would like to think it’s not true, it seems pretty obvious that when teams are dealing with the Dodgers they often ask more, because of the Dodgers ability to pay and depth of the farm system. Then there’s the fact that trade rumors are often, just that. Sometimes rumors are floated by the selling team to drive the price up. Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear… unless of course, you hear it here!
As AC emphasized yesterday, this team was built over the winter so as not to have to overpay at the trade deadline. As fans, we like the excitement of trades, but the fact remains – even though a lock-down lefty would be nice, it may not be essential and it also is becoming clear, that Andrew Friedman has no intention of trading his top prospects. They won’t all pan out, but that’s why you horde them.
Rants and Raves
- Does anyone still doubt (as The Truth Hurts Preaches) The Church of Christ Taylor? I love him at leadoff – .307 BA/.381 OB%/.902 OPS/12-15 in SB/11 HR. He’s for real!
- Don’t look at Kike’s batting average as much as you look at what he does and when.
- Ross Stripling looks like he has his release point back.
- Maybe Dayton becomes that lock-down lefty.
- Colorado and AZ are both 11 and 11.5 games back. Neither has the depth to contend and while the Wild Card is within reach, I would not assume that either team gets it.
- Look, Ned Colletti is a good guy and did some good for the Dodgers, but if he was so good, how come no one is lined up to sign him to be their GM? I stand by my analysis of him. The Trade and signings of Schmidt, Jones, Kemp, Ethier and others were some of the worst overpays ever. Sometimes the best trades and signings are ones you DON’T MAKE!
- White and Santana headed to AA Tulsa. Man, is this farm system loaded! Both of these guys are potential #3’s!
Discussion (101)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Grant Dayton not ready for prime time. Dodgers need LHRP.
Did you see what Puig did in his first at bat? First pitch and double play !!
That’s exactly why I do not trust him, that’s exactly why we really NEED A GOOD RIGHT HANDED BATTER!!
Yasiel Puig – DP Machine!
Verlander and Wilson for Alvarez, Maeda, Oaks, Kazmir and Sheffield.
Darvish running up 97 and 98 mph fastballs in the first inning tonight.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2722874-can-the-los-angeles-dodgers-win-the-world-series-without-a-deadline-deal
I’ve been wanting Darvish for a while.
But to be honest, he’s had 2 playoff starts. 1 solid, and 1 not so good. So it’s not like we’re getting Madison Bumgarner or anything.
However, I still trust his stuff in the NL for the rest of the year way more than I do McCarthy, Maeda, Ryu, etc.
I think if it’s a good idea to go for Verlander, the playoffs are a very different tournament to the regular season, no matter how well or poorly you played during 162 games, what matters is winning that seventh game to advance to world series. And there is where Verlander needs for his experience, no matter what numbers he has at the moment!
This team is going to qualify to playoffs, so JV can throw only 5 innings and rest enough to be ready to the post season: CLayton K, Alex W, Justin V and Rich H. It would be a great rotation, and I also think that we really need a right handed batter with power, I do not trust Puig in playoffs, I can imagine him failing the first pitch or hitting for double play!
Taylor
Corey
Turner
Cody
Forsythe
Kike’
Grandal
Puig
Wood
Mc Carthy has been very good until July. Here are his monthly splits:
April – 3 – 0, 3.10, 1.21 WHIP, 29IP/25K
May – 2 – 1, 3.57, .91 WHIP, 17IP/16K
June – 1 – 2, 3.20, 1.14 WHIP, 25IP/16K
July – 0 – 1, 6.75, 1.84 WHIP, 14IP/9K
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Hard to know if this is just regression or a bad month or blisters or what. His K/9 has been down 2 months in a row, but there hasn’t been anything alarming until recently. Do you make a move given this?
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One point made at DD and other places is that it isn’t just performance by Hill, McCarthy, Maeda and Ryu (inconsistency), but also unreliability. Who will be healthy enough to pitch well come October? This is the risk inherent in a staff manned by the old and infirm.
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I would make the move for the lefty reliever first. Liberatore may not be back this year; Dayton is not reliable and Avilan won’t be used in high leverage situations.
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Does a Yu Darvish or a Sonny Gray make sense? Maybe, but I suspect that you won’t see them wearing Dodger Blue this October. No to Verlander – he hasn’t been good this year. (5 – 7, 4.54, 1.47 WHIP, .256 BAA)
Hawkeye, I agree with you. This is the year. I like Darvish, but I think we need a LHRP first. I was hoping McCarthy would have a good year. He still may. He certainly did not look good last night. It all depends on what the other teams want from us. I just do not think anyone is going to want Ryu, Maeda or McCarthy. If we cannot move at least two of those for a starting pitcher, then I see no reason to trade for a starting pitcher.
Interesting.
Just read Box’s article above from DD and then read some of the comments.
Makes this place look very good.
He makes a good point. I don’t see McCarthy as a big game playoff pitcher.
We might get away with 3, Kershaw, Wood & Hill, but a 4th would be useful.
I think the plan was to use Urias, who they were keeping fresh. as one of 4 post season starters. I think they only have 3 now.
What would it take to land Verlander & Wilson?
After reading this article about McCarthy, I am guessing the Dodgers might make a trade for a starter. http://dodgersdigest.com/2017/07/21/turns-out-brandon-mccarthy-is-the-guy-we-thought-he-was/
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What do “Yu” think?
OK, I am pretty sure he can play DH and I think Andrew knows that the DH is coming to the NL very soon (don’t hate me Hawkeye). You can’t put him at 1B when you have a guy that might be the best First Baseman in the history of the game there. He would scare me in LF but maybe he can play it.
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Here’s what I know: He can’t play 2B.
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It might be 2 years for the DH… but it’s coming and so are a bunch of other changes like Electronic balls and strikes, pitch clock and new substitution rules.
Lots of talk about Calhoun’s fielding. What are his defensive stats this year?
Dang Dodgers. Just when you think you can trust them to never lose another game, they lose one. I am done rooting for the Dodgers. Sorry. Just kidding.
Dodgers lose. Guess I’ll go hang myself now.
Braves are trading Garcia to Twins, pending physicals.
https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/20/16006710/braves-trade-jaime-garcia-twins
Wood goes tomorrow against a rookie being called up from AAA.
I was rooting for Romo, a lifelong Dodger fan, to shine in Dodger Blue. Welter to Middleweight Romo beat the odds for a long time and had an outstanding MLB career, but agree, time to move on!
Mark, might have to get a couple t-shirts made, let me know if I need to send you one
Before I kept saying we could trade Calhoun. He was blocked at second. If we have the DH next year, I can now see keeping him. I could part ways with 3-5 players you mentioned Mark for a good left hander. If we make a trade it is going to hurt. Romo, Hatcher and Gutierrez were the three we needed to lose to make this team strong. Hatcher and Gutierrez will not play again for the Dodgers this year. The thing FAZ and Doc do is play these guys enough til they play hemselves off the team. They cannot bitch they were not given a chance.
https://www.facebook.com/khernandez14/photos/a.412665358930200.1073741829.339083469621723/654281014768632/?type=3
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Funny
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/dodgers-designate-sergio-romo.html?fv-home=true&post-id=97696
Things are definitely happening.
It’s not hindsight, but many here did not fancy Romo from the get go. The Giants would not have let him walk if he had anything left to offer.
I thing a new arm is inevitable now, and I don’t mean Dayton.
Sergio Romo was Designated for assignment. Never liked him anyway
DODGERS REINSTATE GRANT DAYTON
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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today reinstated left-handed pitcher Grant Dayton from the 10-day disabled list and designated right-handed pitcher Sergio Romo for assignment.
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Dayton, who missed 11 games due to neck stiffness, last pitched on Monday with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga tossing a scoreless frame with a strikeout. In two rehab appearances with the Quakes and Rookie-Level AZL Dodgers, he pitched 2.0 scoreless frames with three strikeouts against one walk. In 27 relief appearances with the Dodgers this season, he has gone 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA (9 ER/22.1 IP) and has struck out 20 batters against 12 walks, while holding batters to a .171 average.
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Romo, who made 30 relief appearances with the Dodgers, went 1-1 with a 6.12 ERA (17 ER/25.0 IP) with 31 strikeouts against 12 walks.
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Happy Days are Here Again – Sergio is gone!
Who I would trade is Alvarez. His ceiling is high but his basement is low. I would offer three (3) of the following for Brach or Rivero (pick ’em):
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Alvarez
Ryu
Oaks
Barlow
Sheffield
2016 ROY – Corey Seager
2017 ROY – Cody Bellinger
2018 ROY – Willie Calhoun or Alex Verdugo
2019 ROY – Kay Bear
2020 – DJ Peters
The Red Sox paid Yoan Moncada a $31.5 million dollar signing bonus. He was the linchpin of the Chris Sale trade. He is 22 years old and here are his stats in AAA before he was called up this week:
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12 HR
36 RBI
9 Doubles
102 K
49 BB
.282 BA
.377 OB%
.823 OPS
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He is considered one of the TOP PROSPECTS in baseball.
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The Dodgers signed Willie Calhoun, who is also 22 for a $400,000 signing bonus. Look at his AAA stats:
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20 HR
61 RBI
24 Doubles
46 K
28 BB
.307 BA
.358 OB%
.942 OPS
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Now, we know there is an issue with his fielding, but if you look at the bat only – I can make an excellent argument that he is better than Moncada and if he is, why in the hell would you give him away?
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I keep Willie Calhoun and Alex Verdugo. PERIOD! I am not sure where Willie will play, but he can hit – as good as any prospect. With his body type, he is going to have to dedicate himself to conditioning, but his bat is AWESOME!
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He is likely a better hitter than McCutchen RIGHT NOW! He’s hitting .291 against LH pitching.
It’s a matter of leverage. The greater the market and the rarer the commodity, the higher the price. There are other intangibles of course; your team’s level of desperation and need, what the other team wants back from you, the salary of the player to be traded and years of team control, etc.
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The advantages to pulling the trigger early on a deadline deal, if you are going to make one are:
1 – more weeks of the acquired player to help
2 – greater selection of players to choose from
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The Braintrust has tended to wait until the last minute to make these deals in the past. If the Dodgers are going to obtain a lefty for the late innings I am hoping that they don’t wait until there is no selection and the seller has the team over a barrel – sooner is better.
I felt the same way about Seattle AC. They over pay often. I thought they needed starting pitching more than relief.
Another reliever traded to help establish the market; although Jerry Dipoto does not mind overpaying to get his player. David Phelps goes from the Marlins to the Mariners. In exchange, Miami gets in return:
19 year old OF Brayan Hernandez – Mariner #6 – ETA 2020.
22 year old RHP Brandon Miller – Mariner #16 – ETA 2019
21 year old RHP Pablo Lopez – Mariner #22 – ETA 2019
23 year old RHP Lukas Schiraldi – Not in Mariner top 30. Turns 24 next week and is in HIgh A (Modesto of California League).
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Three top 30 prospects for David Phelps, who is not a closer. This year, Phelps has pitched 47 innings in 44 games (no saves). His ERA is 3.45, FIP is 3.69, WHIP is 1.340. He is 30, and has one year of arbitration before he hits FA after 2018. If that is the market for Phelps, I have to wonder what it might be for Justin Wilson, or Felipe Rivero.
Anyone know anything about Dodger prospect Melvin Jimenez? 17 year old (maybe 18) just moved to A ball….
Unless Friedman believes that the NL will be adopting the DH soon, I think the Dodgers would be more inclined to hold onto Alvarez than Calhoun. But what do I know, since I’ve hardly seen either of them play. Besides, whatever they do, I have confidence in the Dodgers braintrust.
I don’t consider the Matt Kemp signing to a bad one. Consider the year he had in 2011 and the triple crown start he had in 2012. The only thing that derailed Matt Kemp’s career were the totally unpredictable injuries that hit him in 2012. And if memory serves, he had the ankle injury and subsequent surgery in 2013. And “unpredictable” the injuries were, if you take into account that his fist visit to the DL in 2012 followed a steak of 399 consecutive games played.
Calling the signing a bad one is correct, but only with the aid of 20-20 hindsight.
The Rockies went home and have won 4 in a row and yesterday was a pounding of the Pads. Of course they gained no ground on the Dodgers but passed Az. Cubs have won 6 straight and the Brewers lost 4 straight and their lead is down to 1.5 games. Cubs are 5 out of the last WC but are reeling the Brewers in. Nats have an 11 game lead but would be 8 behind the Dodgers. Houston has a ridiculous 15.5 game lead but would be 3 games behind the Dodgers.
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I have said how soft the July schedule was but even I did not think they would just keep sweeping everyone! That’s what good teams do, they don’t make the schedule. The Braves have cooled off and get the Dodgers best pitchers. The Twins are in a dogfight and are just 2 games over .500. Then an off day, Giants for 3 and another off day as the complete their homestand and end July. In August there are just 2 winning teams to play: 6 in Az and 3 at home against the Brewers. Both have cooled off a lot recently. They play 19 away and only 8 home games in Aug, but get the Braves, Mets, Padres, Chisox, Tigers and Pirates.
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Even Roberts has said this team does not need much, perhaps a good LHRP. He is giving Ryu a start and said for a time they will go with a 6 man rotation. Dayton coming back could be big if he is effective. I have to believe they will still do a trade for bullpen help but prefer someone with some team control without giving up their top prospects, so the haggling continues. Please hold onto Buehler, Verdugo, Calhoun and Peters! I am not sure about Alvaraz but they invested $16M in him. I don’t think White or Stewart are going anywhere either.
Remarkable the Dodgers have given up 308 runs. All other NL teams but one have given up at least 100 more
Mark, I agree with you on Forsythe. He is a dirt ball player and so is Taylor. The other night Forsythe barreled the ball up four times and did not get a hit. We see 0-4 and FAZ with their stats sees something else. I hope we keep Forsythe. Let him go after we win the WS, if they want.
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I just want to comment on the leadership on the Dodger team. It all starts with Doc. He talked to them the other day about playing better small ball. He is on them, in a nice way, about getting better. The coaching staff is great. I believe JT, Utley, Kershaw and Agon are the leaders on the team. They all lead by example. That is by far the best way to lead. I just love to watch Utley when he hits a ground ball. He is busting it to first base all the way. Great to be a Dodger fan.
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Taylor has great speed. The other day when he hit that triple. I thought he may have a chance for a triple. When the camera came back to the runner he was standing on third. The announcers said if the outfielders did not field the ball cleanly he would of had a home run.
I see similarities between Reddick and Forsythe. Both are very good players who, for whatever reason, had/are having a tough time playing for the Dodgers. Maybe Forsythe would be better off going to another team, leaving Taylor at second.
I have no idea whether FAZ made an offer to Detroit for JD, or whether Avila’s counteroffer included Calhoun or Verdugo. It appears that Detroit wanted middle infielders who have an ETA of at least two years. I would think that Gavin Lux, Drew Jackson, and Brandon Montgomery would have been a more than comparable offer. But the Dodgers do not have a surplus of middle infielders, and Lux may be too young to make a determination on for a rental. I can see why the Dodgers would have walked if all the Tigers wanted were middle infielders.
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The Yankees acquisition of Frazier/Robertson/Kahnle was a good trade for them. Their losses (Blake Rutherford/Ian Clarkin/Tyler Clippard/Tito Polo) come from surpluses. The prize, Blake Rutherford, is blocked by Aaron Judge/Clint Frazier/Dustin Fowler/Jacoby Ellsbury/Aaron Hicks, so packaging him for a need in 2017 made sense to them. LHP Ian Clarkin could very well prove to be a quality prospect, a former #1 who is worth the gamble. Knowing they are not going anywhere, Clippard at least gives the ChiSox a veteran reliever who will allow their ever growing stable of pitching prospects more time to develop. Tito Polo was a deal balancing inclusion. For NYY, Robertson and Kahnle (especially) were the targets, and will be stalwarts in that pen. I would consider NYY bullpen the best in MLB (at least on paper). I do not believe Frazier helps them much at all, unless you go along with Ken Rosenthal and consider that the inclusion of Frazier takes him away from the BoSox. Bottom line, this was a good trade for both teams. It may not address NYY biggest problem (starting pitching), but it does put two more quality arms in the bullpen.
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I read some angry Dodger fan comments on the JD trade, indicating that FAZ choked again. They could have put a much better package to get him, plus it would have kept him out of Arizona. Keeping JD out of Arizona is irrelevant. FAZ worries about their team and how to improve it…not derail some other team. JD will help Arizona, no doubt. But he is not an 11 game difference maker. The playoffs are not in question. What FAZ is working on is how to address perceived vulnerabilities of the Dodgers during the playoffs. Most teams are RH pitching dominant, including the Nationals, Brewers, and Cubs (even with Quintana). While both the Rockies and DBacks have quality lefties, only one of them can make NLDS. Adding JD does not address that need. There are some who think the Dodgers may be more interested in Jay Bruce just for that reason. The same scenario as to why Josh Reddick was considered last year (I know, I know, he did not play well as a Dodger, but the thought driven process was sound).
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I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers trade for Justin Wilson, or Andrew McCutcheon/Felipe Rivero, or Sonny Gray, or Jay Bruce/Addison Reed, or Tony Watson and some reliever(s) many have never heard of, or nothing at all. The hard lifting has been done. Now it is the fine tuning, but one thing we all should have learned…FAZ will not do a desperate overpay.
I agree, our farm system is loaded. We seem to have good catchers, pitchers, and outfielders in the system. Not as many infielders. However, with JT, Seager, Taylor, and Bellinger in the infield, we will not need any for 5 years.