Six Man Rotations and a Draft Update

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1. It seems to me that in light of this ‘throwaway’ season, it could be a very useful time to give the 6 man rotation a try. OTOH, given that there is a finite amount of games to be played, long looks at some of the starters could be very useful for future seasons.

   For example, how will Price fit in and hold up. The same for Wood. Price is on a downward trajectory in his career. Will it continue, and if it does, what will be his future with the team? Wood has yet to make a real statement anywhere as a starter, mostly due to his fragile health. We saw the potential he has here in one season, but this was a small sample size. He needs to shine in order for the team not to replace him with the young guns ready to move up, and we have those young guns, already.

   Urias is in essentially, a make or break position. We’ve yet to see a breakout but the potential is there. His endurance and ability to manage as a starter is kind of an unknown. Again, for the future rotation, he has to produce at a pretty high level to be in the running after this season. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out after losing two starters, Ryu and Hill.

   One thing should be watched carefully, and that is how do these pitchers do when runs scored by our offense is at a standstill? We should have some dominant offensive production for many games but that is not how we should be judging our pitchers who wind up the win. Did they earn it? Many fans don’t care how we get the win.

2. In terms of building up pitchers after a long layoff, I am curious whether it’s better to go with a 5- or 6-man rotation. It seems that the trade-offs are avoiding injury versus taking longer to build pitchers up to handle longer outings (e.g., 6 or more innings per start). Curious what you all think!

   1. I think that there’s often a place where it’s in the back. With some players lefty and some righty it seems about right. But on
      the other hand(excuse the pun), the zone that goes into it could come out inside. So at the end of the day you need to think back and then start over.

3. GREAT BLOG, JEFF!

   Like every season, the key to this short season will be injuries. We have already had a glimpse of what Kershaw, Price, and Wood have been able to do with the help of Driveline Baseball and Rob Price. They have all added 2-3 MPH on their fastballs and looked extremely fit. What has happened in the interim remains to be seen. However, if they are as advertised in March, by the playoffs they should just be hitting their stride. Clayton will not be tired after throwing 32-35 starts and IF HEALTHY, the starting pitching could be some of the best ever!

   It seems like Julio Urias has been around forever. but he is only 23 and has 4 pitches, including a 98 MPH Fastball with late movement. He had a 2.49 ERA last season in a very unfortunate year for him. The same person who told me about Andrew Toles months ago (I could not repeat it) has also told me that the assault charges against Julio are BS. It’s just the time we live in. You have to appease the media. As good as Striker Buehler is, Julio could be right there with him and Kershaw is far from done. Price and Wood looked renewed in March and this rotation could be one of the best in baseball – EVER! They also have the depth to withstand injuries… or COVID-19!

   Speaking of COVID-19, the cases are still spiking in many states (not Indiana), but the death rate is spiking down. We had ZERO deaths in Indiana yesterday! We could get into the hows and whys, but while more are testing positive (well duh… more are being tested), the percentage of deaths is down dramatically… and that my friends, is a good thing!

   On May 5, there were 24, 805 new cases and 2,701 deaths. On June 20, there were 43, 865 new cases and 613 deaths. Almost double the cases and 25% of the deaths. It’s sad the media doesn’t report that, but then again, I think the whole premise is to keep people in fear. Where are those damn murder hornets?

4. Thanks for the deep dive into the post draft status of the various teams AC. Really interesting stuff. Apparently most teams won’t be signing many of those $20k guys (including us) but for whatever reason, the Red Sox have gone in the opposite direction. All 14 of their signings together only cost them $280k. If even one of them becomes a major leaguer it will have been worth it.

   As Mark said, this could be a spectacular starting rotation and if any of the first five don’t produce, we have a lot of guys just waiting to step in. I’m very anxious to see what Price does. He was supposedly not happy in Boston, almost from day one there. The L.A. atmosphere (both clubhouse and city) could make a huge difference. We shall see.

   1. “Where are those damn murder hornets?“

      Why? You wan to inject them into Covid victims? They are in Western Canada and Washington last I heard.

      I’ve been pimping 6 man rotations got a couple years now, but that was for long hot seasons. 60 games and 4-5 innings per outing you could go with a 4 man rotation if your staff threw strikes. 60-75 pitches every 4th day? I could do that and I’m 72 years old. But, if 6 is what they think will work, great. Go for it. 10 starts, maybe 60 innings – if the season actually goes 60 games, which I still find doubtful. MiLB wised up. Maybe MLB will come around too.

      These guys have had a lot of time off since last year. They are highly paid professional athletes. What have they been doing if not working out? Sure hope they are up to 5 innings every 6th day.

5. I’m not that knowledgeable on pitching, but it seems to me that piggybacking a 5 man rotation would make more sense this year than a 6 man rotation.

   With the short training (3 weeks) pitchers are only expected to go 3-4 innings the first couple times around. With our 8-9 starters, pair L/R for the first 7-8 innings for the first month or so as the pitchers build up.

   The inevitable injuries should thin things out as they build up.

   As the season continues, the occasional insertion of a 6th (spot) starter when there are not many off days would keep everyone fresh before the fall contraction to a 4 man rotation for the playoffs.

   Of course injuries and COVID will blow everything up.

   1. Why are we expecting inevitable injuries? Most of our guys have been working with the Driveline Pitching Program for months now. By design this high tech incredibly focused workout program is to make pitchers stronger. It adds velocity, spin, and accuracy to every pitch. Biomechanical assessments, Hybrid pitch design, Pitch tunnel refinement, Track Man data, Motus sensor platforms, diet and nutrient education, workload recovery analysis, sprint impulse training, isometric/eccentric training that improves durability… and much much more! With high tech specialized training like this our starters should be able to step out there every 5th day and blow them away for 5 innings and our relievers should be able to throw 12-15 pitches every other day no problem. Injuries? Ha! In 60 games? That’s a college season.

      Injuries? We won’t see no stinking injuries!

      1. I like your optimism

         1. You found it believable?

            Thanks man.

            1. Badger, you are to the written word what Laurence Olivier was to the stage.
               We are indeed privileged to read your wisdom here on a daily basis.

               (ok, now how much did we decide you would pay me to post that?)

            2. Need a sarcasm font

            3. STB, what was offered was 3 adjectives, a verb, and a noun of your choosing. What you insisted on were multiple conjunctions backed by cash. I’ll settle for lunch in Laguna when we can do it without masks.

               Just heard an ugly story from a buddy in Arizona. A friend of his wife’s was called a name in public for wearing a mask. It’s getting ugly out there.

            4. I hope there will still be a restaurant in Laguna when the pandemic is over but it’s an enticing offer. I’d even go vegetarian.

               Regarding the AZ situation I just have to shake my head. You wear a mask to keep from exposing others to what you might have. And that is offensive to some people.

            5. We remain divided. I hope we can fix this, but it doesn’t feel possible really. So much anger and hatred.

6. Not a huge fan of the lefty heavy rotation. So a 6 man with a RH in there would make more sense. As for Price, he was looking pretty good in the early workouts and games, I trust a pitcher of his caliber much more than I do scatter armed Wood. But, if both are healthy, then they can be assets. As for Urias, he has shown flashes, but not much in the way of stamina. After 4 innings he loses something. But he is young, has something to prove, and does have some nasty stuff. I would like to see if Nelson is healthy. The guy can be really nasty if he is. Of course that is if. May and Gonsolin are the next wave. I liked what I saw from both last season, and I think they will be contributors this year. Yep, we definitely need a sarcasm font…..

   1. All lefties doesn’t bother me if they’re good. Ours are pretty good.

      Wood has been working out at Driveline so he be smokin’ it Drivenam sty. You know what I’m saying… Oppa Wood he 4 inning good good. Drivenam sty. Drivenam sty.

      Ok, I’m gonna step outside for some air.

7. AC, I like your breakdown and article. I, myself, would not mind a 6-man rotation especially if the pitchers can only go 4 innings at first. Maybe it would help to save the bullpen? If they go to a 6-man rotation, I would add Stripling to your starter list.

   1. I believe in theory a 6 man rotation would help the bullpen as I figured the extra days rest would allow pitchers the be prepared for at least 7 innings. If 6 starters are only going 5-6 innings it’s not going to help the bullpen as the 6th starter takes a bullpen spot. Expanded rosters will help that I suppose. I’m old school. Ideally a starter should attempt to finish what what he starts, but at least get it to the set up man. Today the goal appears to be 5 innings.

   2. Not sure how a six man rotation would save the bullpen work. I would be more in favor of a piggyback rotation.

      Starter 4 innings with piggybacked starter 3 innings. Bullpen last 1-2 innings.

      Bullpen would also need to pitch 4-5 innings the 1-2 non piggybacked games the first couple times through the rotation

      1. That is a better idea than I had SoCalGrinch.

      2. Piggyback starters how many times? In 3 nights you’ve gone through 6 starters. Do you start over on the 4th night? Might work. It’s a different structure for a 6 man rotation.

         1. I’m working under the assumption that we have 8 – 9 starter type pitchers who are healthy and need work, at least at the beginning of the season.

            Piggy back 3 – 4 of the starts. The other 1 – 2 starters don’t have piggybacks but you would use your regular BP once they leave the game; the BP will need some work too.

            Kershaw for instance tends to go deeper in games then some of our other starters so he is one to not piggy back. Buehler or Price might be the other choice if only 3 piggyback slots.

            1. I think you’re on to something.

               I don’t think this would work for every team but we have the required number of starters. We have Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias, Wood, Stripling, May and Gonsolin. If they are only throwing 75 pitches they can go every 4th day. Maybe start one, next time come in as the #1 relief.

               This is an idea worth developing.

8. I would look at 8 starting pitchers with a 4 man starting rotation. A starting pitcher goes 4 innings with another starter to go 4. Then 1 inning for the closer. You will need at least 2 closers to go every other day. Then as the season moves along, move to a 5 man rotation. At the end of the season use a 6 man rotation. They will have to think out of the box this year. I do not think baseball, basketball and football will survive the season. This virus is very contagious. Players will become infected and they will quit even though it does not kill many young people. If I had some medical condition, I would not play.

   1. Similar structure to what I posted above.

      I look for more players to opt out. Of course there will be those that will test positive and have to leave.

      Speaking of that, I just heard an interesting story from my friend in Sedona. His son, in Idaho, was sick recently, cough, felt like crap, but his temperature was below average the whole time. First chance he got he got tested and it came up positive for coronavirus antibodies. Strange.

9. You all make some good points. If the 4 lefty’s were Koufax, Ford, Spahn and Carlton, I would be down with that. But obviously, I do not have a whole lot of faith in either Wood or Urias. I like Stripling as the long man and spot starter. But I prefer May or Gonsolin, or even Nelson if healthy in the rotation. Just the way I roll I guess.

10. Good post Jeff! I think the 6 man rotation will be a big part of this season, should it actually happen (which I still doubt).

    I hope both Clayton “Egg” Beeter and Jack “The Bird” Vogel get signed. The Dodgers have a history of being last minute in revealing their signed players. I was hoping this year they would be different.

11. Jeff, if you don’t mind, I’d like to share this article from The Athletic. It should bring back lots of memories to those of us who grew up in So. Cal.
    https://theathletic.com/1902110/2020/07/01/from-baja-to-the-canadian-rockies-an-oral-history-of-xtra-sports-690/

12. I know this season is going to be a sprint to the finish but there are going to be some blowout games the youngsters can get into games. I’m looking forward to Cody Thomas, Zach McKinstry, and DJ Peters in the field. On the mound the 3G’s Graterol, Gray, and Grove.

13. I think that during “Summer Training” there will be some COVID-19 outbreaks and some teams will have to rotate COVID-19 Squad players in. It will also happen throughout the season, but by the playoffs, hopefully, “herd immunity” will be reached or a vaccine will be available.

    This is a damn strange time. The death rate is down to 4.7%, but if the CDC is to be believed, it is 0 .47% or lower. That’s much nearer to the flu, even though it is more virulent.

    I still think the rotation (barring injury) will be Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood. In regards to Urias not pitching deep into games, that is by design. The Dodgers have been limiting his exposure. I would expect him to be able to go 5 or 6 this year and ramp up next year. No innings limits will apply to anyone.

    1. Uh, Mark, you have Buehler listed twice. I would not mind that, but last time I checked he was not an amoeba and have the ability to separate and reproduce. I think you meant Wood. Mexican league has cancelled their season. Old friend Zac Rosscup was released by the Rockies. Another retread for ol Andy? Nah, he was lousy as a Dodger.

       1. Damn, I must be brain-dead. I fixed it! 😉

14. I’m going to keep beating the drum for a “piggyback” rotation a little longer.

    In a normal year (boy, that sure sounds nostalgic), one would go with a 5 man rotation (Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood) with your 6th man (Stripling) in the BP as a long man. Your 7-9 starters (May, Gonsolin, Nelson) would be stretched out in AAA.

    This year there is no AAA for them to get the work pending call up. I don’t think you can get the needed work in with just practice sessions (@USC/Rancho) with the “COVID” team. Practice is just different than real games. Give them (May, Gonsolin, Nelson) game experience in three innings after your starter.

    They won’t be available for 5 days if we look at this as another starting slot, but with the initial 30 man roster we can carry our 7-9 starters on the roster and still keep adequate BP strength. After two weeks it is likely 1-2 pitchers will need a IL stint/COVID illness rest which will take care of the decrease to 28 man rosters. Same for the decrease to 26 man rosters.

15. One more point (OK actually 2 points) on the 6 man rotation. In a normal 162 game season the argument for keeping you pitchers fresh as the season grinds on is one of the selling points of a 6 man rotation. With a 60 game season (think the seasoning over in June with no July/August/September grind to tire players out) pitchers should break able to stay fresh on a 5 man rotation schedule.

    I think there are 2 main reasons you don’t see a 6 rotation more often is

    1) roster size. In a normal year with a normal roster size, to add a 6th starter you have to decrease your BP strength from 8 to 7. The initial 30/28 man roster makes that viable for the first month but then we are back to 26 man rosters. Not sure using that extra 26th man this year as another starter would be the ideal choice.

    2) not that many teams actually have 6 quality starters (not to mention 7,8 or 9) which would be needed to maintain a 6 man rotation when the injuries happen.

    1. As I mentioned above, the roster expansion will help with this some, but I believe the plan reduces the roster number somewhere in the middle of the season.

       See my response to you above.

       1. IIRC, it is 2 weeks at 30; 2 weeks at 28; then down to 26.

          Yes, I saw that, thanks.

          I don’t know enough to say whether 3 days, 4 days, 5 days rest between starts is ideal but it seems most “modern” pictures are used to at least 4 days rest.

          1. Starters are. But they are prepared to throw over 100 pitches in their 7 inning start. They typically have a bullpen session on day 3 between starts. With this new schedule they just stretch and run between starts, and prepare to pitch 4 innings, or at most 75 pitches, in 4 days. If this works, the bullpen that should be well rested for the last two innings of each game. This is all theory of course, I don’t know what the algorithms would say about it. I’m sure any alternative strategy I can come up with has already been simulated in the computers. This year is so bizarre it may be the year to try something different.

16. My grandson has tested positive for the virus. He has no symptoms. He is 20. His friend got it first and that is why he was tested. He is a college student at University of Idaho. However, in the Boise valley, they will not test you until you have symptoms. My son, daughter in law and their other two children cannot be tested until they show symptoms. Seems stupid to me. If you been exposed, you should be able to get a test.

    1. The county health departments are doing the asymptomatic testing down here in SoCal (The IE) – had my sinuses probed today at one of those sites. (Uncharacteristically, I’ve been trying to follow the established process in this – don’t expect that to start a trend however.)

       Most symptomatic testing being done in clinic setting. That being said, symptomatic can be quite variable depending how hard your MD is willing to push.

       1. I’m not out much these days, just shopping with a mask, and walking the neighborhood park without one. I feel no need to be tested.

          What do you mean by that last sentence. “how hard your MD is willing to push”?

    2. Says something about the health care that is in place in many places. Many foggy decisions made by those in charge. In any case, your family should be masked, distanced, and possibly self quarantined for 14 days. Not much is known about asymptomatic cases. If you’re young, you’ve got little to worry about if you use some common sense and pay attention.

       1. “Foggy” decisions is being kind.

          But point made.

17. After 30 days it will only be like carrying one extra player. But they also have the taxi squad on the road, and the pool of players working out. So a possible rotating roster. But with the 26 man roster, they can only carry 13 pitchers. Try figuring out who those 13 will be and I would bet they would be the same 13 who would have broken camp with the team in April.

18. Since most are suggesting that starters be limited to 3 or 4 innings to begin, what is the rationale of a starter having to go 5 innings to be eligible to get a win? A reliever can get a win without even throwing a pitch!

    1. That win stat has become less a thing in recent years for the reason you just mentioned. I have a feeling that if this 4 inning start is a thing starters will have to buy into it. I also think if someone like Kershaw is mowing them down easily they will be allowed to go 5. Anything at or under 75 pitches is not considered much of a strain for Major League starters.

       I don’t expect to see something like that which we have been talking about. 8 starters and 5 relievers. Too risky probably. If one of those 8 can’t get anybody out it will blow up the scheme. In today’s game teams need more relievers.

19. And so it begins:

    From Dodger Digest

    Sources: Dodgers top prospect Keibert Ruiz has tested positive for “Coronavirus”, according multiple sources. Ruiz is right now in isolation in LA. More than 10 players are believed to be positive for Covid-19.

20. MLB knew that this would happen… thus the COVID Squad.

    It could get rather dicey!

    1. As you know, I expect it to.

       A Covid Squad. What a concept.

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