There has certainly been a lot of optimistic discussions going on throughout the Baseball World about the possibility of MLB in 2020. I think most of us want to believe that there will be MLB this year, but have doubts in conjunction with those hopes. There has been a lot of speculation as to how a season would play out. How many games? How many divisions? What size roster? How many pitchers? With the change in configuration of divisions, and no league designation, will there by a DH?
But there are other questions. What happens if there is no MLB season? Specifically, what happens with the current LAD roster? Clayton Kershaw will be another year older, and one more year removed from his dominance. Will the year off help him, or will age still raise its head and get noticed? We all have our opinions, but that is all they are. We will never know until Clayton gets back on the bump with a 10 inch rise and faces a batter 60’ and 6” away. I choose to believe that the next LAD Hall of Famer is still a quality pitcher.
Even if there is no 2020 season, Kershaw will still have one year remaining on his contract, and can resume his trade again in 2021. But there are seven Dodgers that may have worn the classic Dodgers uniform for the last time. Two of those seven players, Mookie Betts and Blake Treinen, have yet to don the Dodger Blue in a regular season game. And yet there are five others who might not return next year: Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Kike’ Hernandez, Alex Wood, and Pedro Baez.
Justin Turner
2020 is JT’s final year on his 4-year $64MM contract, and he will turn 36 on November 23. Is AF ready to turn the hot corner over to Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty or Zach McKinstry? All five have their positives, but none can match the clutch of JT. JT was showing signs of slowing down, but he remains an asset. I would think that a two year end of career contract will get JT to retire as a Dodger. He is a LA favorite and will always be remembered as a LAD in one of the team’s best runs ever. He and his wife Kourtney are special people. After all, how many Dodgers have had a day in Los Angeles proclaimed in their honor. January 22, 2019 will always be remembered as Justin Turner Day. Give JT that final contract.
Joc Pederson
Joc is another fan favorite, but has had his ups and downs. At this stage of his career as a Dodger, he is really a LH hitting platoon OF. He was part of an awkward trade that LAA owner Arte Moreno reneged on. Joc also lost his arbitration case in a somewhat public environment because of the infamous non-trade. Joc is powerful hitter who is capable of a 40 HR season (in a 162 game season). We know AF values HR’s so it will be interesting to see what he may offer Joc this winter. I do not see a QO in his future, and I do believe that Joc will look to move on to prove he is an everyday player. I think Joc signs with another team hungry for a LH power hitter. SFG (he is from the Bay Area)or NYY? For me, Joc will always be the player who should have been the MVP of the 2017 WS if the Astros had not cheated.
Kike’ Hernandez
Some have believed that #14 has been on the cusp of a regular starting role for the past couple of years. But alas, Kike’ is a magnificent super utility player with good pop. The Dodgers have Chris Taylor (RH), Max Muncy (LH), Matt Beaty (LH), Edwin Rios (LH), Zach McKinstry (LH) ready to step in. The Dodgers do not have many (if any) RH bats to replace Kike’, or someone with the defensive utility supremacy that Kike’ possesses. Kike’ is going to be one of the top positional players with multiple FA offers next winter. He is not a MVP candidate, but he is nevertheless one of the top utility players in all of MLB and that ability is valued throughout the league. I think the Dodgers will let him sign elsewhere and utilize others in that utility role.
Alex Wood
For any of you who have followed me at all over the last three years, you know what an Alex Wood fan I am. He was never the Ace that people tried to compare him to, but as a #4 or #5 he could excel. And who can forget the magical 2017 season. Kershaw had a great Game #1 win in the 2017 WS, but it was Alex Wood who defied the garbage cans and pitched magnificently in Game 4. He was the only away pitcher to stifle the Astros at home in the 2017 post season. Game 4 was the only Astros loss at home during that post season. Perhaps had he started Game 7, he would have rivaled Joc for MVP honors. But this article is about what happens to LAD players after 2020. The Dodgers have a stable full of young pitchers capable of replacing Alex in the rotation. Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Josiah Gray appear to be more than capable of stepping in. Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson are names that also have been mentioned as possible starting pitchers. Jimmy Nelson has a relatively inexpensive $2MM club option for 2021. Regardless, it does not appear that Alex will be seeing a starter’s contract offer from AF.
Pedro Baez
Relievers are the most untrustworthy players on the roster, but also the most needed, especially with the way Manager Dave Roberts uses his pen. Baez has at times been unhittable, and other times has earned his name of El Gasolino. The converted 3B has a big fastball and is just now learning how to command his offspeed pitches. He will be 33 next year, and for many, that is just the right time for some relievers to find their niche. The Dodgers have multiple relief options waiting in the wings. Some may be one to two years away, and maybe AF offers Petey a two year deal with an option. It is more likely that Baez will look for a potential closer’s role with another team.
And now to the two who were acquired to bring that WS Championship back to LA; Mookie Betts and Blake Treinen.
Blake Treinen
Who did the Dodgers pay $10MM for? The 2018 Treinen or the 2019? If Treinen resembles the 2018 version (and he believes he is healthy enough to do just that), relief would become a strength and not a weakness for 2020. Is AF willing to spend another $10MM? I do not see it, but will AF lose both Baez and Treinen, two late inning options? Treinen says he does not need to close. I guess that is what $10MM does. But Blake has been a proven elite closer, and AF is probably more willing to break bank with him rather than Baez.
Mookie Betts
I have been up front and a huge advocate for Mookie Betts. If there was a game changer available, Mookie was that player. It was costly, as Alex Verdugo figures to be a top offensive player with a cannon of an arm that will come in very handy at Fenway. Some Boston fans (and other Dodger haters) are laughing at how bad it will look if Mookie never plays a game for LA. You cannot judge a trade based on something as unforeseen as this pandemic. Mookie could have torn his knee up in a Freeway Series game and never played a game just the same. The difference is Mookie is not injured and is the same potential game changer he was when AF made the trade. AF is always thinking ahead and there is no possibility that he did not plan on making a huuuuuge offer this winter for Mookie. He offered $300MM to Gerrit Cole, and there is no reason to believe he will not go big for Mookie. Will it be enough? The pandemic and the resultant financial hit some teams are going to take, is going to limit the number of teams who will have the financial wherewithal to make an offer. LAD does not have a lot of OF options, so I expect the Dodgers will make a top of offer. Will Mookie accept?
I still hope that there will be baseball in 2020, but if not, the 2021 roster figures to have a lot of changes. Who do you think the Dodgers should/will keep.
Good topic AC. Here’s my take, all of these predictions are based on no 2020 season:
JT – no way he isn’t back. Just a matter of what length of contract they settle on.
Kike/Joc – both will get better offers than they would get from AF, so they’re gone.
Wood – if he’s willing to sign another one-year contract to re-establish himself, I could see AF going for that, because although we have some young studs coming up, they’re still all unproven.
Baez – I think this one is about 50-50. If someone gives Pedro a closer’s contract, he’s gone. Otherwise, I think AF likes him so they just might be able to come to a mutually satisfactory deal.
Treinen – I think one of Baez or Treinen will be back. So I think Treinen is 50-50 also.
Mookie – AF will throw as much money at him as anyone and we are as capable as any other team of withstanding the lack of 2020 revenue. If Mookie has no problem with the Dodger clubhouse or the West Coast, I think he signs here. Maybe Price will have a positive influence on his decision.
Turner
I hope the Dodgers will offer nothing more than 2 years.
Wood
I don’t think he will get a QO so another 1 year deal or he is gone.
Pederson and Hernandez
Time to let both go, the Dodgers have replacements.
Baez and Treinen
I don’t think either one gets a QO, I think the Dodgers will try to keep one.
Betts
The Dodgers will make an offer,the question is will he accept?
Good article AC. These are not my predictions but hopes. I, like you, AC, hope they resign Woods. I think he deserves another chance. My favorite current Dodger is Joc Pederson and think he can still be a huge asset to the team especially if they cannot sign Betts. Hope they keep Turner, the unofficial team captain. Heck, keep them all.
Good questions to ponder.
JT – I think he comes back. 2 years would be ideal. His leadership on this club is too valuable to let him walk away.
Joc – I think AF surprises us and gives him a qualifying offer. LH power hitters do not grow on trees and he has value to the Dodgers as a super platoon with AJ and to give Bellinger and Betts a rest. If Betts moves on, he’ll have even m ore value. It would be prudent to take the risk and get something of value for him if he does sign elsewhere.
Kike – I think he’s gone. He wants to be a starter and unless Lux’s arm falls off, that’s not going to happen in LA.
Wood – If the entire season is cancelled, he might be back for one year. Otherwise, he’ll probably be gone. Unless of course he gets to pitch this year and is the second coming of Johnny Podres or Claude Osteen.
Baez – Hardest one to determine. I think he’ll be resigned.
Treinen – same as Wood. If he gets to pitch this year and is lights out, he’ll be gone. If not, he may be back for 1 year
Betts – the hope is he resigns a mega deal and that he’ll become one of the faces of the franchise and a legend in Dodger history. If not, he gets a QO and we lament what could have been.
Great topic.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that Turner, Baez and maybe Betts would be back.
It’s not just that Turner is a fan favorite – this front office isn’t that “fan friendly”. Branch Rickey always said that it was better to trade a player away a year too early than a year too late. It’s that Turner has no obvious replacement (Muncy’s worst position in 3B) and he can still hit. He will undoubtedly play fewer games but would be available to be a bat off of the bench in games he doesn’t start. 2 years sounds about right. He might get more on the market but might not be inclined to leave.
Baez has become (gulp) the most consistent arm in the bullpen. I know that relievers are inconsistent from year to year, but Baez seems to improve each year.
If Treinen got $10 MM for 1 year after last year’s disaster, he will want far more if he’s actually any good this year. He has been inconsistent his whole career. And he doesn’t consistently throw strikes. (The Dodgers already have Kelly in that role.) No thank you.
Hernandez is a very good utility player, but as you point out, the Dodgers have several of those.
Alex Wood is what you say – a 4th or 5th starter who has been injury prone. His career stats are 53 – 43, 3.40 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 8.2 K/9. He threw 189 innings back in 2015 but more recently has been good for about 150 IP, when healthy. With the Dodgers’ pitching depth, they don’t need him back in 2021.
Betts is the big question of course. I agree that the Dodgers didn’t give up the amount of talent to obtain Betts without assuming that they would try to resign him. BUT – they have been averse to long term contracts. And Betts will want one.
Also – there are 2 confounding factors that will make free agency in 2021 a giant question mark:
1 – The shortened season in 2020 will significantly affect team revenues. Baseball is already working on a deal which will reduce umpire pay for 2020. MLB is also (controversially) working to contract MILB, in part for money reasons. No one knows how this will affect the free agent market.
2 – The MLB CBA expires after the 2021 season. Will This affect baseball’s willingness to spend big on free agents?
While the Dodgers want Betts, they have not landed a big free agent for a long, multi-year deal since Andrew Friedman came to town. Signing Betts to a 10+ year deal goes against every fiber of his being. Will he be able to pull the trigger?
Good takes. I agree with what Jefe (STB) initially said and I would add that I think Turner could get 3 years somewhere if he wanted it. With a year off to get everything straightened out physically, years 36-38 could be productive, especially if he could DH part time somewhere. I think he’s likely to stay, but there’s a local AL team that probably wouldn’t mind having him. Especially after Pujols is gone.
I wonder if Pederson wants to hang around. He could get paid large by a lot of teams.
I like Baez. Always have. Treinen is an unknown. I look elsewhere unless he comes relatively cheap.
Nobody knows what Betts might want and some of who stays could be influenced by whether he does or does not does stay.
This is difficult enough even if this season were just going along. With the surely adumbrated season, and the possibility of no season at all, I’ll just go with the “should” part, because the “will’ part depends on things like finances, future season tickets, and such things.
The player I most want to keep is Betts, because he is a great talent, and we would be signing him for ten years or so. Lose Betts, and then maybe through no fault of our own, our little window to win titles has closed, because there is no one on the roster who could come close to replacing him. If we sign him, and we can sign Bellinger, we have the cornerstones of our lineup for years, hopefully with Buehler anchoring the pitching staff. It’s always their money, not ours, but I would be very disappointed if Betts left after the one half-season. I will base the other comments on the hopeful assumption that we will sign Betts to a very expensive long-term deal.
I would like to sign Turner, but we could not go too long, maybe three years at the most, if there is reason for confidence that he could play them with high production. We were ready to give up Pederson for not much, and while he could still come into stardom, he has consistently been hitting .245 with good power, but not necessarily in key situations. And someone will just offer him more money and years, and he will likely leave. Hernandez hustles, and sometimes comes up with key hits, but i don’t see him as a starter, unless we are forced into it because we couldn’t sign better players. Baez I would not sign; i realize that he has some good moments, but he is not consistent, and I think that if he had real closer talent, he would have shown it by now.
Treinen I liked as a pickup; but the Dodgers’ propensity to only offer one-year deals to talented but somewhat iffy players, may bite them here, and we may get one good half-season from him, and he will then move on. If he does show the return to form that he is predicting, I would want us to sign him and make him the closer. Wood, well, i am not as big a fan of him as Jeff is, but let’s see what he shows. The last two seasons could well just reflect a pitcher who is going to keep having arm problems, and who was never that great to begin with, other than that one really good half-season he had here.
Betts. Bellinger and Buehler are the keys going forward. Keep all three of them, hopefully also sign Seager, and we can fill in the rest. Lose Betts; and well, while no one but perhaps the CDC or WHO could have foreseen any of this calamity, we will perhaps be looking at another five years of title drought, unless we can win it this season, however it would be played.
Just about every prediction about COVID-19 has been wrong. Today, The Atlantic wrote this:
But much else about the pandemic is still maddeningly unclear. Why do some people get really sick, but others do not? Are the models too optimistic or too pessimistic? Exactly how transmissible and deadly is the virus? How many people have actually been infected? How long must social restrictions go on for? Why are so many questions still unanswered?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/
The Wall St Journal reported that there was Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19:
These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.
They call themselves Scientists to Stop Covid-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, “There’s no question that I’m the least qualified.”
If cures or vaccines are not developed soon, there will likely be a second wave. Is shutting down the economy the answer? Shutting down the economy is like getting rid of the rats by burning your house down. I am not saying shutting down the economy is not a viable answer, but we are likely facing a depression if it continues and that might cost even more lives. No one really knows.
I do know that some form of baseball will stabilize the nation’s mental health. I miss it.
Personally, I think American and Canadian ingenuity will win out. Right out of the Blue!
Great article Jeff!
I wouldn’t discount the Chinese will to stop and eradicate this virus. No matter what propaganda garbage Americans are fed about the Chinese, they are a strong force in the world and have the know how to manage themselves. Anyone who has traveled there can see the quality of life and intelligence operating very successfully. They have no shortage of supplies and protective gear, etc., to help ebb the spread of this virus. There is also no problem there with discipline in following healthful guidelines, social distancing, and the desire to not infect others. Asians in general don’t have the wild imagination about freedom and doing whatever they want whenever they want it, and it has probably helped a lot in managing this here in Asia. The collective spirit is very important to them.
I read that too.
As has been said many times by people a whole lot smarter than me – no tests, no vaccine, no gatherings or you pay the price. I heard again this morning virologists are still saying 12-18 months for a vaccine. Maybe they can rush that but from what I’ve heard, and read, it’s extremely dangerous to do so. I understand what it means to the economy… well, I don’t really understand it, I just know you’re right Mark, it’s gonna hurt. Slow steps.
I still don’t expect MLB baseball this year. I too hope it can happen, I just don’t expect it to.
Tuesday my youngest son takes my oldest back to NYC.
I think it’s too early but he says no. He’s been here 2 months and I am going to miss him.
Well, I just heard, on NBC local, business owners are opening up and some guy being interviewed said “if you’re young and likely to survive it IF you get it, then … go for it.” I understand that line of thinking but I wouldn’t advise my son (36) to “go for it”. I’m sure you are unsettled by your son’s decision Mark. I’m ok staying home, but opened beaches would help.
Two earthquakes in Chatsworth today. 3.2 and 3.3. I’ll bet STB felt it.
Apparently I’m very unfeeling. Didn’t feel a thing and we’re literally one block east of the Chatsworth/Northridge border.
A strange world we live in. I have to find out about an earthquake in my neighborhood from a baseball blog.
Would it help if I told you they were both around 3 in the morning? That’s not true, but would it help? Ok, one was. That’s gotta help.
States opening up today. Hope it works. Huntington Beach has police helicopters flying up and down the beach telling people if they put one foot on the beach they will be arrested. Orange County Sheriff says he will not enforce stay at home orders. You don’t have to stay at home but put one foot on the beach…..
Did you see the N.Y. arrest of a protester? Hope that cop gets suspended. Chicago Mayor sounded serious yesterday. This is going to continue getting uglier.
I think some of these politicians are drunk on power. I realize the virus is serious, however the cure might be worse than the virus. Not to mention taking away rights and liberty.
I think most politicians are drunk on power. Maybe it’s always been that way.
Adam I think the problem with the whole rights liberty argument is that if restrictions are lifted, and millions of people get sick, they all have to be willing to go home and care for themselves, come what may, because the truth is we just don’t have a large enough care system to handle the numbers that scientist’s models show would be generated by such a move. I think those who make these decisions know better than to believe those whining about freedom wouldn’t be showing up by the millions asking for help after contacting this disease. In this case I would agree with them about that. Maybe I’m wrong?
For every freedom and right we have there is a corresponding responsibility in my opinion. Those rights were won and maintained the hard way. The responsibility that accompanies a right is that we do not harm others with our own selfish use of rights. I have absolutely no patience with any Canadian who thinks his/her liberty to assemble is more important than the health of other Canadians who are doing their part to help control and defeat the pandemic. The cure absolutely is no worse than the virus. The virus kills, the cure does not. How is it even a question?
Well said Harold.
The cure doesn’t kill? Allow me to politely remind you the cure does kill. How many suicides have there been? How many drug and alcohol deaths will there be from shut-ins? How many shattered marriages? How many domestic violence incidents? How many abused children?
Mark’s example of burning down the house to get rid of the rats is very applicable. There have been zero Covid cases in my area, but there have been suicides.
Badger, I realize in some areas the healthcare system is burdened, however in most areas it isn’t. In my area hospitals are firing doctors and nurses because there isn’t any work. No Covid patients, and nothing considered “elective” is allowed. Personally, I have been in a lot of pain waiting for a surgery that the Governor (drunk on power) says isn’t “necessary”.
With all respect Adam I disagree. Suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, domestic abuse and child abuse are more of a personal choice just as they are without a pandemic. I know there are always mental health issues involved and the isolation is now putting additional pressure on those choices but they were already there before the pandemic. All of those things were already happening. With the virus, it doesn’t allow a choice. Until there is a vaccine we all must play defense, again in my opinion, and go on the offense when the vaccine arrives.
Are you suggesting that the cure will kill the now estimated 134,000 people in the US that the virus will kill? Is the number of those deaths now equivalent to the 68,000 US citizens who have already died? If so, you might be right. Were there no suicides in your area before the pandemic? We now have no known cases in our area of the province but also no suicides.
My main point is that the right to live trumps the right to assemble and that includes me not taking a chance on infecting someone else and others not taking a chance on infecting me.
I never disagree with Mark but do not buy into his example. The virus isn’t a few rats. It is relentless, in immeasurable quantities, very mobile, has yet unknown characteristics ( blood clots in young people, etc .) and is opportunistic. It is looking for a road into my community should we let our guard down.
From The Athletic:
“Would it have surprised you if the Dodgers went 25-5 in April?”
That exec to me: ‘You could have picked any record except maybe 25-0, and it wouldn’t have surprised me. That team is the Showtime Lakers, and it’s bad for baseball that we don’t get to watch it.’”
Showtime Lakers. Sounds good. Will we ever know?
ESPN to broadcast Korean baseball. See attached for details and schedule
https://www.12up.com/posts/espn-agrees-broadcast-kbo-baseball-south-korea-starting-on-opening-day-01e7g2q89y5b
Assuming games are played – I think Graterol will determine if Baez and maybe Treinen are re-signed. If Graterol is good out of the pen the FO will decide to allocate the money needed to re-sign Baez elsewhere. Whether that would go to Treinen, Betts or next years version of Treinen who knows. For Turner I think it will depend on how productive and healthy he is. If he hits well and is mostly injury free he’s going to get offers
Good points Jimbo.
Turner is one of those guys who can generate 3-4 WAR playing fewer games than most. In ‘18 he put up 4.9 in only 103 games. Give him days off, and DH now and again, and I think he could play til he’s 40. I’m not saying we should pay him to 40 (somebody might be willing) but I would pay him through 38.
I could see the Angels, Rangers and Twins making a run at him. I also think Lux is going to be a determining factor on Hernandez returning. You don’t need Pollack, Taylor and Hernandez if Lux produces. I can’t see how Pederson comes back.
“I could see the Angels, Rangers and Twins making a run at him“
Me too.