Last year, the Dodgers had Nine (count ’em, 9) rookies on the roster in total. I did a hurried comparison and I think only San Francisco had as many rookies as the Dodgers. I could be wrong … feel free to do the research and get back to me. But the point is: The Farm System is productive and still a TOP 3 system. In fact, if the Dodgers just sign Rendon and Cole and don’t make any prospect trades, it’s possible they could have the #1 farm system by spring. Here are the eight rookies:
- Alex Verdugo
- Gavin Lux
- Will Smith
- Matt Beaty
- Kyle Garlick
- Tony Gonsolin
- Dustin May
- Edwin Rios
- Josh Sborz
Is it possible we see nine rookies in 2020? Well, the answer is yes, because at least 6 of the above players will still be rookies in 2020, but who else could make it? Of course, Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty, Tony Gonsolin, Edwin Rios, and Dustin May will be on the list. Josh Sborz and Kyle Garlick will show up only in an emergency. Here are the other rookies who could see time with the Big Club in 2020:
Brett de Geus – He only pitched in High A Ball last year, where he dominated and again dominated in the AFL. He will start in AA next season and move up quickly if he keeps on this same track. In my opinion, his progress is predictable and sustainable. I think he will be in the LA bullpen sooner than later.
Keibert Ruiz – His 2019 season was shortened by injury. He will be 22 in July and hits better from the left side of the plate. Unless Austin Barnes really, really turns it around, I expect to see Kaybear platoon with Will Smith by the All-Star Break. Smith is superior defensively, but it’s not a by a huge margin. Ruiz is a very good catcher in his own right and his bat-to-ball skills are among the best I have ever seen.
Jo Jo Gray – He started out 2019 at Great Lakes, went to RC and ended up at Tulsa at the end of the season. For the season, he pitched 130 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and struck out 147 while allowing just 98 hits. He may start out back at Tulsa or OKC, but if there are multiple injuries and Maeda is traded, we could easily see him in 2020. To me, he profiles as a #3… possibly a #2. He will be 22 in two weeks. This kid has a huge ceiling. Get back, Jo Jo.
Victor Gonzalez – He’s a 24-year-old LH pitcher whom the Dodgers added to the 40-man roster. Across 3 levels last season, he put up a 2.31 ERA in 89 innings. He is more effective against RHH than Adam Kolarek, so he has a chance to be a lefty in the bullpen. The Dodgers only have Kolarek, Alexander (coming off an injury), and Caleb Ferguson (who has allegedly accepted his bullpen role). Gonzo could see some time at the Show.
Other Possibilities – Dennis Santana, Mitch White, Michael Grove are on my watch list, but it would involve any of them taking a huge step forward. It’s not likely, but it is possible and if it happens, it could mean that other bad things have happened in the bullpen. Gerardo Carrillo has an outside shot, but I think he’s a year+ away and he has to wrap his head around relieving. I guess we could add Marshall Kasowski to that list… if he can develop another “plus” pitch. Big IF! BIG, BIG IF!
Position Players – Zach McKinstry was added to the 40-man, but he’s (in my opinion) the most likely to get traded. DJ Peters is at least a year away (if ever), and that is about it for 2020.
Memo to Fans Who Want to Make BIGGGGG Changes
It ain’t happening… nor should it. Lindor, Kluber, Betts, and others are FAKE NEWS manufactured by the media whose ratings depend upon what they write! I call BS on it all. I am certain that the Dodgers are in on Cole, Strasburg, Rendon, and Donaldson, but if someone is willing to overbid like the D-Bags were on Greinke, then AF will bow out – AND HE SHOULD! The reality is that the Dodgers may or may not end up with one of those players.
We know that Gerrit Cole grew up a Yankees fan. We know that he is from So-Cal. We don’t know if he wants to play on the Right or Left Coast. Maybe he doesn’t care… but maybe he does. I think it’s between the Yankees and the Dodgers, but I have no inside info. I think the Rangers will “way overpay” for Rendon and, being from Houston, he will go to Texas. Josh Donaldson could be “our guy” but someone may be willing to overpay for him too. There are so many dope fiends out there. On the field, Rendon is the better solution, but in the clubhouse, JD may be just what the Doctor ordered!
As the winter wears on and if the Indians feel the pressure to trade Lindor, maybe they would include Kluber in this deal: Lindor and Kluber for Pederson, Taylor, Maeda, Stripling, Beaty, and Dennis Santana. If that’s all they can get, the Indians might take it and they would likely be better!
There is so much uncertainty, that I can’t predict when the next sunrise might occur. But, I can tell you that AF will not get swindled. Many Most Dodger fans begged and pleaded for Giancarlo Stanton… and you should be happy AF did not make that Dope-Fiend Move. Stanton’s contract will be the worst boat anchor in the history of baseball.
The Yankees are allegedly “fixated” upon Cole. The order to get him came from Hal Steinbrenner. Hal gets what he wants as a rule. If the Yankees offer 8 years and $320 million to Cole should AF beat that? I think not! But, we don’t know the thought processes of any of the players, agents, and teams right about now. There are a lot of factors that go into this. In retrospect, Manny Machado was more Clark Kent than Superman outside of Camden Yards. Bryce Harper was/is a good, but not a great player. AF did right in allowing the other teams to make a dope-fiend move.
Yes, I believe in incremental growth. Look no further than Anthony Rendon. In his first two playoff years, he hit .150 and .175. Then in 2019, he was a stud! It paralleled his incremental growth each season. I also believe in keeping the Farm System strong and productive and AF has done just that. It doesn’t mean every player will be a major leaguer and the fact of the matter is that AF has traded a large number of prospects. It’s not like he doesn’t do that. I just don’t think now is the time to gut the farm. I don’t think you have to.
There is an opportunity to get a top player or two without giving up the farm. You only lose a draft pick and I know AF is OK with that in this situation. I know that Gerrit Cole is going to command the largest contract ever given to a pitcher. The biggest one (until now) was to David Price, the boat anchor to the Red Sox organization. If Cole costs $50 million more than Price, the Dodgers might be in. If it’s $100 million more, I would say “walk away.” I think Freidman will.
It will be a fun and interesting Winter Meetings. I have a feeling that Friedman has told Ryu to “get your best offer and come back to me before you sign.” That’s the fallback position. I would rather have Cole but not at any cost! Don’t forget that the last team who walked away from a $300 million dollar contract, won the World Series. Like AC, I believe in going BOLD… Just not Stupid!
One More Thing…
Ther is an interesting read at Dodgers.com on the best valve draft picks ever for each team. Of course, we all know the Dodgers was Mike Piazza but look at the rest of them right HERE. Some of it is luck and some of it is preparation. The Draft… even the lower levels can yield some gems.
Jesse Pearce had an article in Think Blue LA were he made 5 trades the Dodgers could make for RHH, here is his third trade scenario.
Outfielder / first baseman Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles? What would it take? A lot! Perhaps Matt Beaty, DJ Peters, Chris Taylor, and Mitchell White. I would love this trade if the Dodgers would include Muncy. The Dodgers get a RH bat who can play First base which puts Lux at second, Seager at SS, and leaves third open for Rendon or Donaldson.
Turner would be able to play 2 or 3 days a week at third or first and also be used as a pinch hitter.If the Dodgers don´t get a third baseman then Turner is the guy for now.
It´s time, what will the Dodgers do?
Another bad glove, high strikeout guy. But, it’s hard to argue with the offensive production, except Camden Yards. There’s a number right handed bats available that I’d rather have. Betts, Marte, Bryant, Rendon, Donaldson. But, I would rather have Mancini than Muncy at 1B.
Your list of 8 rookies should be 9 with Edwin Rios also on the list.
I’m pretty sure the biggest boat anchor ever would have to go to Albert Pujols. Stanton probably has a couple of good years left and already had a couple of pretty good years on his current contract and isn’t signed for as “old” as Albert will be when his deal is finally done.
You toss around “boat anchor” a lot. I would rather have a “boat anchor” and a championship than no boat anchor and no championship. See David Price.
I know it’s easy to say that spending money on the best players won’t guarantee a championship, but not spending and not tanking will also not deliver a championship. If you play middle of the road all the time, you will come up short every time.
I’m wondering how many guys that interview for a GM position go in saying that we’re never gonna sign a top free agent and we’re always going to hold onto all of our prospects and we’ll win a World Series by signing castoffs from other teams.
Andrew Friedman has never won a championship, so maybe, just maybe, his strategy isn’t the best strategy.
If you can spend 275M in payroll to secure a television deal, you should be willing to come near that number to win a Championship.
If you can’t offer big bucks to free agents, and you never extend your own, how can you ever resign your own elite players once they hit free agency?
If you only rely on developing your own talent without ever bringing in outside help, you will never win a championship. As your next wave of talent develops, you will continue to lose your own stars to free agency.
Here’s some vision for you. Even Ray Charles can see that your fan base will start to become disinterested if the perception is that you’re hoarding the money they spend on your product. We saw it with the McCourts.
I find it repulsive that The Angels and Yankees both publicly stated that they’re gonna go hard after Cole, then AF comes out days later and says we’re not going to do something just to do something. The Yankees were a 100+ win team last year. They have less cap space than we do, and they publicly say that they’re going to address their biggest need. That’s why they win championships. They do whatever it takes to do so. Meanwhile, AF is signing a 31YO Independent League pitcher who has problems strikes in a BULLPEN SESSION!
The naysayers said the same thing when AF signed Muncy, traded for Taylor, and signed Blanton and Morrow. Dumpster Diver, they called him.
I don’t know what ownership has set the salary threshold at, but I guarantee they will not go to $275 Million… or even close. That’s not on AF!
You are fixated on signing a guy at the league minimum or thereabouts? Surely you know that has nothing to do with Cole or Rendon. Every good GM does side deals like this all the time. Most don’t work out, but some do.
How can you say, AF never extends his own Free Agents? Kershaw, Jansen, and Turner. Who hasn’t he extended? Machado, Reddick, and Greinke! I would not have done that either.
The Red Sox did not win because of David Price – they won because a lot of stuff happened at the right time, just like the Nats.
A large percentage of what it takes to win a World Series is getting there and AF has built a team to get there. He has built a Farm System that is producing at a high rate. Yes, not all make it, but with incredible development, a higher percentage do.
You just can’t spend to get a World Championship.
Watch and Learn!
Thanks for pointing out the number was 9 rookies. I went back and fixed it.
Muncy, Taylor, Blanton and Morrow are all flawed players. When they tried to use Morrow three days in a row, it blew up in their face. Blanton broke similarly with over use. Taylor lead the league in K’s and Muncy is on his way to doing the same. They are all useful pieces, but none of them put us over the top and it could be argued that if he signed an all-star instead of dumpster diving for any of those players we might have had one – three championships over the last three years.
I watched and learned already. Everyone that wins the ultimate goal trades prospects for quality players, or signs top free agents. The Astros traded for McCann and Gatis. The Red Sox signed Price and JDM. Cubs trade for Arrieta, Chapman and Signed Hyeward, Lester and Zobrist.
It’s absolutely foolish to think you can win without signing quality free agents, trading quality prospects to get quality players, or to not tank. The Dodgers are doing none of those things and at the same time they resign their crappy manager that keeps making stupid decisions in critical games. All of that falls on Friedman.
BTW – I’ve watched and learned for the last 5 years when AF inherited a very good team and made them marginally better.
Now back to reality!
I’m not sure I understand your comment about not extending/resigning your own elite players. What do you consider the signings of Turner, Kenley and Kershaw?
I couldn’t care less what statements are coming out of the Angels and Yankees front offices. Who cares what they say? We may very well not sign anyone to a contract over $9.95 but Friedman always plays things close to the vest so his lack of any “we’ll spend whatever it takes” statement hardly means he won’t. Actions speak louder than words and admittedly his past actions may have been lacking. But it’s the actions that will count this winter, not the front office statements.
I feel really sorry for Rios and I don’t think he’ll ever get a real shot here. Seems like a good guy with a good attitude and I expect him to be traded this winter in some sort of package and probably to an AL team. I think it will definitely help his career if that happens.
To add to that, if I want to buy something, I do not tell the seller “Oh, I really, really want this.” That’s about the stupidest negotiation tactic on the planet. AF is taking the right tact!
I’ll buy that! That is something I can agree with.
STB. Let’s see what happens when Belli and Seager hit free agency. I should have been more clear with what I said. I should have said Super Star or something to that effect. Jansen was close to that. Turner is not making 20M, so I don’t consider him in the same league as the guys we all want this offseason. Kershaw was really just a 1 year extension under Friedman. Coletti gave him his 200M+ contract.
Actually, Turner made 19 mil last year and will make 20 mil in 2020. He only made 12 and 13 in the first two years of the contract though (when he played his best baseball).
Agree Mark, I use that tactic when buying a car.
If all Dodger fans can see that the team needs another right-handed hitter, another starter (ace quality or close) and to augment the bullpen, I know that the Braintrust can see it too. Heck, as of now, they don’t have Hill or Ryu – adding a SP is a necessity.
You can add talent via the minor league system, trade or free agency.
You have the best chance of addressing the ‘pen via the farm. You can mix and match, plug guys in and see what works. Very few starting pitchers start out as aces. The Dodgers have talented youngsters, but a team with World Series aspirations isn’tgoing to count on one of them being a co-ace with Buelher (and Kershaw). The Dodgers have no stud RHH ready to make an impact in 2020. So any new co-ace SP or RHH has to come from outside the organization.
Free agents cost $$; trades require that you give up good stuff to get good stuff back. I am always amused at some poster who propose Austin Barnes, AJ Pollock and Ross Stripling for some other team’s All Star player. It ain’t happening. Since prospects are the coin of the realm, a trade for a high-end player will require high-end prospects. A certain Dodger blogger that I read once wrote that the Dodgers have 19 untouchable prospects. Of course, that’s hyperbole, but if Friedman wants to hold on to prospects really tightly, a trade is not going to happen.
How much $$ are the Dodgers willing to spend this year? Is it Friedman’s decision or the bean-counters’ in the front office? If signing Cole or Strasburg is what’s needed to put them over the top, will they spend what’s needed to make it happen? Or will they, in Friedman’s words, be rational and always finish 3rd trying to land a major free agent?
The have 3 choices – standing pat, spending prospects or spending $$. What will they do?
… and you have to add “What will others do?”
It doesn’t happen in a vacuum!
Here’s a quote from BA:
The Los Angeles Dodgers left their bullpen largely unaddressed at the trade deadline partially because of an unwillingness to part with Gavin Lux or Dustin May. If you’ll recall, they placed similar untouchable labels on Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, and those decisions worked out pretty well.
Even after a stellar 2018 season, Lux has a case for being the breakout prospect of 2019. The 21-year-old is hitting .354/.423/.624 with 21 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A, and he’s posted a ridiculous .457/.537/.876 line in 25 games since being promoted to Oklahoma City. He went from a back-end top 100 prospect to a top-10 talent.
The front office shelled out a healthy $2.5 million bonus for catching prospect Diego Cartaya last summer, and he’s already playing stateside. His bat trails his advanced defensive game, but there’s enough offensive potential to warrant the Salvador Perez comparisons from MLB.com.
Excellent points, Mark. Headline in this morning LA Times: Will cash-rich Dodgers back up the Brink’s truck? Boys in blue have the green to land at least one star.
No one knows. The Dodgers under Friedman are masters of misdirection so it wasn’t a surprise to see Bill Plunkett’s story in the Orange County Register and Friedman being quoted that the Dodgers could do nothing and they’re still a championship team. They are about as tight lipped an organization as there is in baseball.
All we really know is that they’ve met with Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon. They’ve also expressed interest in Josh Donaldson. Friedman has said the bullpen is always an issue.
All the talk about a $280 or $300 million contract for Cole is just nonsense. I can’t imagine a GM or owner who is that dumb. Not even the Yankees. All a record setting contract means is that it will exceed $217 million.
There is speculation that the Cole sweepstakes really boils down to the Dodgers and Yankees since both of those teams are already in championship mode. The Angels are not.
Cole or Strasburg are the only real difference makers on the market. The Dodgers already have a team good enough to get to the playoffs and probably reach the World Series. If healthy and if they perform, another elite pitcher could push the Dodgers over the top, leading to the first Series title since 1988.
Now, if Friedman is looking to resolve third base long term and get a big right hand bat, then Rendon makes perfect sense. If Rendon is looking for a chance to win another ring, then the Dodgers make sense.
As everybody tries to interpret all this, we also have to factor in Scott Boras, who is very good at getting teams to bid against themselves. Remember, Bryce Harper was going to get $400 million.
One other thing, Mark, Baseball contracts passed stupid a long time ago.
The Angels may not be in championship mode today but Cole will get a 7 or 8 year contract and the Angels are only a couple years away at most so I would count them in the Cole sweepstakes to the same extent as are the Dodgers and Yanks. This will come down to a game of chicken. Which two steer away at the last minute.
Muncy is a better 1B than Mancini, but let’s look at their stats:
Mancini had his best season (by far) last year playing for the worst team in baseball.
He has reverse splits. He hits RHP better than LHP and has 3X the HR against RHP, as does Muncy.
Muncy has a much higher OB% and can play 3 Positions. I would not trade Muncy for Mancini. Known vs. Unknown.
I also think Muncy would be fine at 2B… if you leave him there all season. The way they shift, he would not be exposed.
If Lux is what everyone thinks, then let him play 2B! Play Muncy at 1B.
Mancini’s splits are close. last year 911 OPS against L and 893 against R.
Muncy’s OBP last year was 374, Mancini 364. Mancini can play outfield, Muncy can not.
Sure Muncy might be fine at 2B defensively because of shifts, but a better defensive second baseman would benefit even more.
Mancini had 175 hits vs Muncy’s 122. Mancini had 38 2B vs Muncy’s 22. Mancini was unprotected in the Orioles lineup, Muncy was well protected.
Sorry Mark, Mancini is better than Muncy and he’s right handed which balances the lineup. He’s also younger.
Muncy is solid, but he just doesn’t hit enough. Homers, strikeouts and walks. He’s solid, nothing more. He’ll never be a top tier 1st or 3rd baseman and he’s not a full time second baseman.
I enjoyed your post today Mark.
I would hope if the Dodgers sign Rendon it will be to a 4 year contract with an AAV around $30M to $33M. But if they do sign Rendon then I want them to trade an infielder to make room and that infielder should not be Lux.
I think Pollock will play really well next year but worry about how many games he will play.
I’m still in on Lindor and Kluber.
Mancini- 5.9 WAR in 1741 AB’s.
Muncy – 9.7 WAR in 1050 AB’s.
I am not sure on what Planet Mancini is better than Muncy? Uranus?
OPS+ Says Mancini is better. Muncy gets points for SSS Defense at 3B. None of us know exactly how WAR comprises of, but defense and park factor are included. Go compare their offensive stats from any site and it’s hard to argue that Mancini isn’t the better hitter. More ISO, Less K%, almost everything across the board. You said yourself that positioning helps Muncy, so maybe that would be true for Mancini as well.
I think that if the Dodgers Stand Pat, they will be better next year, BUT I have no doubt they will be even Better if they sign Cole and/or Rendon. Rest assured that they know that too, and if you think that they don’t want a Championship as much as we do (probably more), you are certifiably insane.
A Championship or multiple Championships improves the Dodgers Brand and increases the value of the team.
You should have put that last sentence in all caps Mark. A very good point for those who think the ownership only wants to make a profit. Championships increase profits!
Some other prospects who might get a cup of coffee with the Dodgers this year are: Zach Reks (current version of Kyle Garlick), Drew Jackson and Nolan Long (sleeper bullpen candidate). Of course over the next few months the Dodgers will sign a slew of players to minor league contracts, One or two of those players will tantalize during the spring. Just think back to the debate over whether or not the Dodgers should have kept Brad Mills on the roster last year. This happens virtually every year. I recall that I thought Jake peter was actually a better prospect than Max Muncy. Did I ever whiff on that!
In looking at the prospect depth, I’m grateful that the Dodgers are no longer in a situation where Jerry Sands is their best prospect. I do not mean that as any disrespect to Jerry Sands, as he was a fine player, as far is it goes. However, he’s no Lux, Gray, Ruiz, Downs or even Peters.
Dodgers have $16.125 million payroll committed 2022 for two players, Kenta Maeda and A.J. Pollock. They are uniquely positioned to take on long-term commitments.
They could trade for Betts and Price and Punto for Loney, etc. so to speak.
There are certainly two distinctly different camps in LAD fandom. One camp believes the Dodgers do not have to do anything and they will get back to the WS and win it this time. Never mind that they continue to play with the same basic roster minus two SP that was not good enough to win it before. That camp believes unproven Dustin May, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin can make up for Ryu (#3 in CY) and Rich Hill. Maybe they will, but my money would be on Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg to have better years. No guarantees, but forgetting about the $$$ no GM would take May, Urias, or Gonsolin over Cole or Strasburg. And if $$$ is not a deterrent as has been declared by Kasten and AF, then that is what we are talking about. Some fans would take May, Urias, and Gonsolin over Cole and Strasburg. I am not passing judgement, but that has to be what that camp believes.
The Dodgers do not have another 3B in their farm system, nor a RH bat anywhere in their farm system that has Anthony Rendon type numbers. And yet those same believe that JT will somehow find the Fountain of Youth and play 150 games. He has done that exactly once in his career (2016) and has played in at least 130 only two other times. Some of us are told that we cannot rely on history and expect players to continue to play well, but we are supposed to ignore history when it comes to number of games are RH bats (JT and AJ) will play next year.
And while all of MLB believes that the LAD has a bullpen problem, there are those that believe that because all teams seemingly have a bullpen problem that LAD does not have to address what others believe is a problem. They believe that LAD can develop an elite bullpen from within. After all Brett de Geus is on his way. I am the big de Geus fan, and I do not see him making this roster this year at all. I would hate to be wrong, because that would mean that none of the bullpen choices have worked out and the problem still exists.
A second camp believes that the team needs to sign multiple FA to address the team’s weaknesses. Why stop at Cole/Strasburg. Also sign Anthony Rendon. Sign Will Harris and Tyler Clippard (a pair of 35 year old relievers). Trade for Mookie Betts and/or Francisco Lindor. After all we are talking about the Billionaires Boys Club also known as Guggenheim Baseball Management. Certainly they can afford a $280MM contract spending level. Never mind even with that team, there are no guarantees.
I fall in between but closer to the second camp. I think it is foolhardy to believe that the same team that is seemingly regressing in the playoffs is somehow going to all of a sudden become a WS juggernaut. This team does not have the IT factor. I do not know who that IT is, but IT is not in the LAD system. The Dodgers need to change the dynamic/culture/personality (whatever one wants to call it) on the 26 man roster. AF has previously said that there does need to be a change in the dynamic of the team, but now seems to want to tamper down fans’ expectations. I hope that it is only negotiation tactics. But I certainly do not believe that it helps or hurts a team to say they are all in on a specific player. Most of MLB says that LAD is in on Gerrit Cole. So there is certainly no surprise that there is interest. Most now say that it comes down to LAD or NYY (I still believe that LAA is a player). My point is that if NYY gets Cole for $225MM (a record), then I have to believe that any LAD interest in Cole was minimal at best.
IMO (and I hope I am wrong), Cole will sign with NYY, Rendon will sign with Texas, and Strasburg and Donaldson will sign with Washington. The Twins seem to have the inside track for MadBum. The Dodgers will re-sign Ryu and some relief “help”. AF will say that he tried to sign one of the Big Three, but got outbid again. With that said, even I believe there are limits to how much one can spend on one player. I also agree that just because the Dodgers are willing to spend, that does not mean that the FA wants to play for LAD. There are multiple factors.
If money does not get you to a championship, then why should AF sign any FA, or make any trade. Instead they should simply concentrate on moving any costly near FA player for even more prospects? Maybe AF can get the payroll down to $150MM. After all maybe this way LAD can get 10-12 rookies onto the roster. They would still the favorites to win a weak NL West. And for some, that is good enough, because that is where luck takes over.
While I do have confidence that Walker Buehler can be the Bulldog, I am just as confident that there is no Kirk Gibson personality on this team, and it is going to need to come from outside the organization. All it takes is one. The talent on the team needs the Pied Piper to follow.
One last comment on this post, of all the in house relievers who MAY make an impact this year, I will say that IMO that one reliever would be LHRP Victor Gonzalez. My favorite, Brett de Geus, will not sniff the roster in 2020, but could make a splash in 2021.
You know how I like to have you dig through MLB rosters for solutions AC. Where do we find that Gibby-like guy that brings the IT factor? Certainly Donaldson has it and it seems as though Pham has it as well judging from what I read about him yesterday. But we may not be able to get Donaldson and Pham is no longer available. Who else can we go get, because I agree that we need that guy, whomever he turns out to be.
I had no idea that Tampa Bay would trade Tommy Pham. I know it was not because of Hunter Renfroe, so I believe that Tampa wanted Xavier Edwards (yet another middle infielder). Tampa Bay now has 4 of their top 9 prospects as middle infielders. That could indicate that Tampa Bay has been getting calls on Vidal Brujan, since Wander Franco is not going anywhere.
Right now, I do not know who that dynamic/culture changing personality might be. I know Josh Donaldson has been described in that manner, but he was not able to get the Toronto team or Atlanta team over the finish line. Anthony Rendon knows how to win, but was he the impetus? Harper moved on, but Rendon seemed to have that IT factor once the supposed leader was gone. With his metrics in the 2019 playoffs I would like to think he was a big part. .328/.413/.590/1.003, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 10 K vs 11 BB, 3 Sac Fly. I am guessing with those numbers both Belli and Seager would not have to feel pressured to carry the team and would perform much better. Even Barry Bonds could not get either the Pirates or Giants a WS win.
The IT needs to be a RH bat, or a SH who hits better as a RH bat.
Considering the new 3 batter minimum rule and considering how Doc has mishandled the bullpen, the bullpen needs to be able to function under the new rule and also needs to be Doc proof.
Every team is going to figure out a way to use one Loogy. That being said, the Dodgers do not need both Alexander and Kolarek. I would prefer Kolarek because he is so good against LH bats. If I had a say, I would make a big pitch for Aaron Bummer (I know a shock to many). I am still bullish on Caleb Ferguson and believes he will get that command back as he has in the past. And I hope that Victor Gonzalez will be that dominant LHRP that LAD has been lacking. Alexander and Kolarek both have options, as do Ferguson and Gonzalez. Get Bummer and pick the best of the remaining LHRP. Jansen, Baez, Kelly, and Stripling should have no problems with the 3 batter rule. That means that AF is going to have to find quality relievers to fulfill the spots previously held by Dylan Floro, JT Chargois, Yimi Garcia, and Casey Sadler. Harris would qualify, but I would be pleased to see Treinen or Gausman also on the roster.
Assuming the real psi iLife that Cole signs with the Yankees and Strasburg stays in DC, is there a frontline pitcher that the Dodgers could trade for? I could see a scenario where the Dodgers do a couple of trades (some of which might be part of the Pederson/Seager/Maeda) rumens we hear/talk about.
I have always liked Kluber, but most on this site believes he is done. Maybe he is, but I would like to think that he has at least one more GOOD year. At $17.5MM, he would not be overpaid. After that the pickings become slim. I have no desire to take on either Sale’s, Price’s, or Eovaldi’s contracts. I do not believe any of the other top Indian starters will be available (Bieber or Clevinger). The DBacks will not trade Robbie Ray to LAD, and even if willing, AF will never pay what the DBacks want. Most of the contending teams are also looking for starters, so they would not trade any elite pitching they have. I hold out hope that Tampa Bay might be willing to trade any of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, or Charlie Morton. Not realistic hope, but hope nonetheless. It is more likely that Tampa Bay will trade some of their surplus middle infielders for even more pitching.
Maybe the Dodgers can look at Carlos Martinez and hope for lightning in a bottle. Maybe the Reds will move Trevor Bauer (doubtful), but certainly worth a call. The Cubs would love to move Darvish or Quintana. But neither interest me (as if I matter). I am assuming that AF will have a true gauge as to whether he will be able to sign Cole this week. If not, I would hope that he is having conversations with Tampa Bay for Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow, as well as Charlie Morton (as a backup).
I still think Ryu is a viable backup plan. What I do not want is for AF to try and find that gem in the rough by signing Rick Porcello, Dallas Keuchel, Tanner Roark or Wade Miley. But I can see him taking a chance on someone like Julio Teheran. I think Mark is going to get his wish, and AF will start with Clayton as #2, and end up the year with Urias as #2. I would not be shocked at all if AF goes with Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Maeda, and May. And there are plenty who think that is good enough.
Agree with your views on the guys we would like but won’t be available and the guys who might be available that we shouldn’t want.
I absolutely think it’s taking a huge chance to go into the season with Maeda/Urias/May as three of your five starters. It might work out, but it’s too chancy to suit me.
I’m a big Ryu fan and, if we can’t have Cole/Strasburg, I would be fine with bringing him back. The question is whether he waits to sign until the other two guys are off the board. I’m guessing that the Ryu/Boras strategy is in the affirmative because once those guys are signed Ryu’s price will go up.
Kluber – I’m hoping that the Indians’ pitching is deep enough that they won’t ask the world for him. If they’re looking for one of our top 5 prospects, forget it. I would hope that something like Joc, Maeda and a third piece would be sufficient.
The Dodgers may or may not have a 3B in the pipeline. Hoese hit .299 in his rookie season at 21. Rendon hit .233 in his rookie year at 22. Hoese is at least 2 years away, but Vargas and Santana (if he is not taken in Rule 5) are also options, but they are also at least two years away. I would pay Donaldson $30 mil a year for 3 years. He’s the lockerroom presence they need. Rendon is a better bat, but Donaldson was MVP 4 years ago and may have one great season left.
2020 will likely tell the tale, but I think Hoese has a chance to be special. Mike Busch also may have a special bat, but where he plays is problematic… maybe the DH will be in the NL by the time he is ready.
So Fake News?????
We have been hearing about this off season for two/three years now where all this money comes off the books just to resign Ryu? That’s a major blow to a hot stove winter.
Just popped up on my phone that The NY Times is reporting that the Yankees have made a 7 year $245 million offer to Cole. That works out to a $35 million AAV. Don’t think I would want to beat that.
That makes sense since we know he’ll get at least 7 years and 35 mil AAV beats Greinke’s record. Even if we would go higher, the Yanks might top that. Time to move on to Strasburg.
I am guessing that Arte Moreno will bid up, but AF will back off. If NYY wants to outspend anyone (and they can), it will be LAA and not LAD. It is possible that Cole can get pushed up to 7 years $280MM, and it will not be AF making that offer.
I wonder if teams purposely push up the bids to force their rivals to spend more? What if the Dodgers offered 7/250 knowing full well the Yankees would counter? That way the Dodgers could say they were serious about signing him.
Why not just re-sign Ryu for 2-3 years? He’s about as good as there is.
I think that AC has it right – if spending $$ doesn’t bring championships, why not spend as little as possible? Run a payroll like Miami’s. Or Baltimore’s. Spending on payroll doesn’t win championships.
So don’t sign anyone. Dump expensive contracts. Acquire prospects – everyone knows that all prospects become All-Stars, and when they get expensive, trade them for more prospects.
By the way, the top payrolls in baseball last year:
Yankees – $228 MM
Red Sox – $219 MM
Cubs – $218 MM
Nationals – $208 MM
Dodgers – $194 MM
Angels – $177 MM
Giants – $176MM
Astros – $166 MM
Cardinals – $161 MM
Mets – $161 MM
5 of the top 10 in payroll made the post-season. What’s interesting is that the past 4 WS winners, (Nats, Bosox, ‘Stros and Cubs) are all in the top 10 – they obviously spent some $$ to try to win.
There were 4 100+ win teams last year. 3 were in the top 10.
But hey, there’s no relationship between winning and spending $$.
Baseball Prospectus has the salaries like this:
Team Payroll
Boston $221,646,148
Chicago Cubs 209,396,554
N.Y. Yankees 207,204,905
Los Angeles Dodgers 191,049,242
Washington 183,957,579
The Top 2 didn’t make the playoffs!
But they did the year before and each has a recent ring. Poor argument. If the goal is to get to the playoffs, AF is your man. If the goal is to get a ring, not so much.
The previous record contract for an SP (in length) is David Price’s 7/$217 MM.
The previous record AAV contract for an SP is Zack Greinke’s 6/$206.5 MM (AAV is $34.4MM)
Cole is younger than Greinke was when he signed his extension and his AAV will be higher. I have been figuring that he will get something close to $36MM/year for 6 or 7 years. When comparing contracts to other existing SP contracts, 6/$216 or 7/$252 is not out of range – but it’s more than the Dodgers will spend.
With that Yankee bid on Cole, my wish list is now Strasburg, Ryu, Harris, and trade for Giles.
The bullpen is way too important to shore up because of Doc and the new rule.
My wish list is Strasburg or Ryu, Harris, and trade for Giles and Hader.
Rios and Dennis Santana for Giles.
Downs, Gray, Stripling, Ferguson for Hader.
According to the trade simulator both trades are an overpay on the Dodgers part. But I’d be willing to overpay.
We’ve officially come to the fork in the road. The Dodgers could easily go there and beyond. But and this is especially true with pitchers, will he hold up and be worth those numbers for the life of a seven year contract? Or even five of those years? Guess the Dodgers will take a deep breath, take a hard look at Strasburg and re-sign Ryu. They can certainly afford both Ryu and Rendon. But if Rendon’s numbers get too crazy, look at improvement through a trade or two, sign a free agent relief pitcher. Money ahead.
But, if the Dodgers fail to win it all in 2020, prepare for an onslaught of criticism like they’ve never seen before.
Logic tells me that is way too much money for a pitcher and there is no way teams can continue to offer such deals and not suffer long term. The Yankees would certainly be on the verge of that.
But the Dodgers really need to make a splash, so forget Cole, forget Strasburg, forget Rendon.
We should sign Ryu and then Madison Bumgarner. Before saying no way, Think of the first day of spring training and Bumgarner places a water logged ball in Muncy’s locker with a note: I went and got it.
Consider the marketing possibilities. MadBum and MadMax together again. Want to add an edge to the clubhouse? Just add Bumgarner.
Bum is no longer a Top-of-the-Rotation guy – he might be a #4, but the Dodgers could get Ryu and Bum for less than Cole. Kershaw is friends with Bum. I’m OK with it.
Buehler
Kershaw
Bum
Urias
Ryu (I just traded Strip and Meada)
May and Gonsolin in the pen
You talk about a seven year contract for Cole. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Yanks or Angels go eight years. If AF knows he isn’t going to wind up with him he should just get the word out that he is out. The Yanks and Angels have already announced they’ll go as far as they have to so now egos start playing a part here. They might both go crazy because neither one will want to be the guy who gave up. Cole and Boras are licking their chops.
I’d rather see him drive the price up so that he cripples whoever gets him.
So, the Indians want salary relief and they want Lux and Ruiz.
NO, they can’t get them! Tell them you will give them Joc, Stripling, Maeda, Beaty, Rios and another mid-level prospect for Kluber and Lindor. Hell, I throw in Peters too. That saves them plenty of salaries and with Joc, Rios, and Beaty in the lineup and Strip and Maeda in the rotation they would be better.
The risk is Kluber but it’s only for two years. Maybe they catch lightning…
1. Verdugo RF
2. Lindor SS
3. Turner 1B
4. Bellinger CF
5. Muncy 2B
6. Pollock/Reks LF
7. Seager 3B
8. Smith
Buehler
Kluber
Kershaw
Urias
May
You’re being very generous with quantity MT, but the offer is lacking in quality. How do the Indians trade the face of the franchise without getting back something special. You’re just giving them a bunch of extra guys we have lying around. They expect to compete next year so they need major leaguers or guys who are on the verge. If we aren’t willing to give them Lux or Ruiz (and I’m not saying we should) I don’t see a deal coming together.
Well, it might not. It’s their choice. I think they want salary relief and it would likely make them better.
Let me clarify because some of you like to take what I say out of context. Spending, especially overspending and winning are not mutually exclusive, but I do not believe this: “Spending on payroll doesn’t win championships.
So don’t sign anyone. Dump expensive contracts. Acquire prospects – everyone knows that all prospects become All-Stars, and when they get expensive, trade them for more prospects.
Those are DodgerRicks words, not mine. I take no ownership of any of that, nor do I believe it.
One more thing. If Cole prefers the Left Coast, then if the Dodger offer $250 million to him, he might come West, young man! I think AF might go $250 Mil.
True, spending doesn’t guarantee a championship but who here doesn’t believe signing Cole doesn’t make us huge WS favorites next 2-3 years. That’s 4 servings of Buehler and Cole in a 7 game series. The money is there this year. How bad do u want to end this drought?
No way I give a 29 year old Pitcher a 7 year deal for the money NYY are offering.
That’s not gonna end well.
I’d give that money to Rendon before I give it to Cole.
Who wrote this?
” Yes, I buy into the hype myself sometimes, but after careful consideration, whoever buys Gerrit Cole or Anthony Redon is a dumbass… unless it is a shorter deal!”
“Additionally, spending excessive amounts on payroll seldom correlates with winning. Actually, it’s the opposite. Spending stupid amounts of money seldom leads to winning. The connection is not there. Stop with the fiction already!”
“There is a connection between signing Big Free Agents and winning. That connection is 180 degrees off for the most part. There isn’t always a “bad guy” to blame.”
And a bonus?
“The best bullpens are often built from homegrown pieces or lucky finds. I have said it before and I’ll keep saying it: “Yimi Garcia may be the best Dodger reliever next year.”
So – our host has consistently staked out a position against free agent spending. Until today?
Objection: Assuming facts not in evidence.
Those are quotes from me, but they leave out other important aspects of my testimony.
On Dec 5th, I also said this:
I am all in on Cole and Rendon.
So what if the Dodgers offer 6 years/$250 million and Arte comes in at 7 years $320 million?
Arte is a hopeless dope fiend.
AF is a dopeless hope fiend!
On November 18th, I wrote:
The Dodgers are a very good team, fresh off a 106 win season. There comes a point where you say “OK maybe another horse (Cole or Strasburg) will make a difference”… and you sign him, but you don’t gut the farm to get players like Betts, Lindor or others who will demand a lot of prospects. You stay the course. You improve incrementally. You have to assume that your young cores can get better – players like Seager, Bellinger, Smith, Verdugo, Urias, Buehler, and others.
I can post a lot more – you are just taking sentences out of context. I shall be forced to ask the Court to censure you and I’ll ask for sanctions…. 😉
And “here comes the judge”. Please approach the bench. And, do not hit into a double play or speak double talk. Just kidding you two. Do not fight please.
It doesn’t have to end well it just needs to start well. We are huge WS favorites next 2-3-4 years with Cole and Buehler. Not to mention if Urias and May and Gray develop,into top end starters. Dodgers will,live to regret this missed opportunity. Maybe we can try for 10 or 11 straight playoff appearances without a final celebration
It is just about check in time at the Hilton in SD. Some interesting reading in multiple rumor sites.
1. The interest in Puig is less than that for Avisail Garcia. Garcia and Puig are the same age, Garcia had an arguably better 2019, and Garcia figures to sign for less.
2. Ryu tied to at least 4 teams with very little discussion back to LAD. He is being sought after by Minnesota, LAA, Texas, and Toronto. I would not at all be surprised if SD was also interested. Some have speculated that those not in on Cole or Strasburg are interested in perhaps signing both Ryu and MadBum (Minnesota) or Ryu and Keuchel (LAA and Toronto).
3. Some are now speculating that Boras is looking for 7 years for Rendon and not the 5 that many thought he was pursuing. 5 seemed just about right for LAD, but 7 seems out of the comfort zone for AF. Texas may be willing to go 7 to get the new face of the organization with a new ballpark.
4. It is curious that Josh Donaldson who was projected to sign early has not yet signed. It is plausible that the teams that are interested in a 3B are still in on Rendon and look at Josh as a backup. They are not going to commit to Donaldson until Rendon is signed. If the Dodgers were to make Donaldson a legit 3 year offer maybe they can sign him. If he was a fallback and 7 years is too much out of the comfort zone for Rendon, then make a legit offer to Donaldson. Or take a chance that Texas outbids LAD, and then Washington and Atlanta will go all out in signing Donaldson. I fear if LAD gets involved in a bidding war for any elite FA, they will come out on the losing end.
5. Cubs looking to unload salaries. The likelihood of re-signing Castellanos is almost non-existent. Wilson Contreras is as good as traded. The Cubs would very much like some team to come in and offer a bag of balls for Yu Darvish and assume the entire salary. The same for Quintana. I think they would like to see what they could get back for Kris Bryant, but I do not think many teams are going to be offering anyone until they know how MLB is going to come down on Bryant’s grievance against the Cubs and his Super 2 status.
I think Frankie Lindor, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant would all have the IT factor. Some to a larger degree than others. There are others, but those seem to be the most prominent possibilities as of now. I personally like the idea of Frankie Lindor and his personality in LA. I do not believe the stage is too big for Lindor, and I believe that both Belli and Seager would have less pressure on their back with Lindor. Negative factors would be Seager would have to move to 3B and I do not know how amenable he is to that move, and what that does to his desire to stay long term with LAD. It will take at least Lux, and if Lindor and Seager both leave after 2021, who plays SS for LAD? I suppose Jeter Downs or Chris Taylor if they extend him. I like Lindor, but it might be just too big of a sustainability risk to trade Lux. Cleveland would not do the deal without Lux, so I am guessing that AF will not swing a trade for Lindor. The best option for the IT factor would seem to be Anthony Rendon. Only $$$ and no lost prospects.
This figures to be a very active Winter Meetings. There have already been twice the number of top FA signings this year compared to last year, and several more lesser FA signings. There have been a few trades and so far not one involves Jerry Dipoto. But I do believe that many trades have already been vetted and will come to fruition this week. There are too many teams that believe they have a shot this year to get to the playoffs, and they have the dollars and prospects to spend. They are not going to wait for Boras to get his clients signed. I think teams learned from last year that too many were waiting on Harper, Machado, Keuchel, and Kimbrel and did not get what they wanted done. This year will be different.
One thing I do agree with Mark on, I never believed that AF was ever in on Harper or Machado last year, and that I am more than happy that the Dodgers did pass on them. I do believe they are in on the Top 3 but that their interest has a limit, and that limit will be surpassed by someone other than AF.
Here’s to a fruitful Winter Meetings in SD. BTW, I have never been to Nashville, so if next year’s Winter Meetings get back to Nashville, I plan on going. It will be my Christmas present to myself.
Over at Dodgersnation dot com an article named “LA Rejecting Teams Interested in Gavin Lux.”
Eric, saw that. I just posted the link. I do not know how connected Blake Williams is, but I am guessing more than me.
I’ll drive 4.5 hours to meet you.
I have not seen that it was official that it would be there,
It was at the Opryland Hotel last time which is a spectacular venue.
If it’s official, I am getting reservations.
I do not know if it is official. It is still listed as TBD. It went to Nashville in 2015 after being in SD in 2014, so I am hoping.
Another wonderful read, AC
My daughter and her family are considering a move from Chico to Nashville sometime next year. If the stars perfectly align, hopefully I with be at the meetings as well. And keep in mind: This Bruin always buys the drinks when in the company of a Trojan.
And anyone named Mark Timmons.
Well if the Winter Meeting is in Nashville, this Trojan will take you up on that drink.
Apparently and not unsurprising, Gavin Lux is a very hot commodity. The Dodgers have thus far indicated that Lux is an untouchable and AF wants him to be a Dodger for a long time. With Lux unavailable to other teams, that would seem to nix any chance that the Dodgers will get Lindor.
https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-la-rejecting-teams-interested-in-gavin-lux/2019/12/08/
While he is not going to make a roster this year, I would like to see the Dodgers make a run at Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz. Tampa Bay is not going to move Brendan McKay or Matthew Liberatore, but could be amenable to a move for Baz. I would also like to see what the asking for Vidal Brujan would be. While the Dodgers farm system is good, I really like Tampa Bay’s.
FYI
https://nypost.com/2019/12/08/gerrit-cole-sparks-rare-yankees-dodgers-heavyweight-fight/
The thing is, there prices are not abberations. They are the market price for players of Cole, Stras, and Rendon quality.
The price is probably not coming down anytime soon for Aces and MVP candidates.
So if the Dodgers want to take their shot with this core, when is the time to do it, and why isn’t it now?
They have a boatload of available room under the tax, and could easily free up a sizable amount more with a few trades of players that are not essential.
I would like to see this team win, for me, but also Kershaw has two years left, and assuming that he is done after that (at least with LA), I would very much like the guy to win that ring……in LA.
If they balk at the cost of Cole, then fine but they have to get Strasburg or Rendon then.
And if they get Rendon, they still needs a 1/2 pitcher via trade, if there is anyone out there that is.
Honestly, I think that this team is in poor shape going forward……pitching wise. They are a Bueller injury from Golden State. No, not that bad but the pitching staff, outside of Bueller, is highly questionable. Assuming Ryu walks, and Hill isn’t back or healthy, its pretty slim outside of hopes and prayers that the rookies can be on top it all year.
AC…..you mentioned some good rumor sites. Can you pass that info on? I am always looking for more to read.
I go through MLB trade rumors of course and all the blogs linked from this site. Any other that you could link would be great.
A lot of silliness today.
Off-site Rosenthal playfully predicted Lindor to the Dodgers.
On-site:
The idea of a direct correlation between “money” and “a championship” is absurd.
The idea of DodgersNation.com being anything above my speculation in terms of relevance and accuracy is equally silly. For a while the most heavily cited author at that site was someone who works in IT.
You may be right about Dodger Nation, but Blake Williams has more connections than you and me combined. If you don’t want to read about rumors then I would suggest you swear off blog sites. But don’t just come on and call them silly. They are no more silly than your trade speculations. They do not have any relevance or accuracy, but you like to site them. Unless you have a direct line to AF I would not consider any rumor to be any more than rumor. I have no idea why you come on and criticize discussion as silliness. If you do not like it, ignore it. Nobody is going to feel cheated that you find it silly but do not comment.