Rule 5 Draft Considerations

Posted By on November 8, 2019

So many of us have been looking at FA possibilities and trade possibilities that most have not paid any attention to the first date that will impact the 2020 Dodgers roster.  The 40 man roster needs to be set by November 20, 2019 with all Rule 5 eligible prospects protected. The actual Rule 5 draft will take place on Thursday, December 12, 2019. That gives AF and his staff less than two weeks to finalize the 40 man.   The next critical date that can impact the 40 man roster is the non-tender date; December 2. We can review the considerations for these decisions a little closer to the date.

I started putting this together last week, but I just have not been able to get back to it until MushersPop brought it up yesterday.  In 2017, the Dodgers protected Dennis Santana and Trevor Oaks, but last year a total of 5 players were protected; Yadier Alvarez, Keibert Ruiz, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, and Josh Sborz. But they were not done in 2019, because in addition to the five who were protected, the Dodgers added Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Will Smith to the roster during the season. Finally, Kyle Garlick, who was not protected, was also added to the roster during the season.

For those that need a refresher about the rules of the Rule 5 draft and who needs protection, below is a link to the rules per MLB.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/rule_5.jsp?mc=faq

In reviewing the current 40 man roster, the Dodgers have 38 with 2 on the restricted list; Andrew Toles and Yadier Alvarez.  Yes, Alvarez is again off the roster for some unknown reason.  I think it is time to cut the cord and move on.  I will revisit this position later in the article.  AF is going to need to make a decision as to what to do with both players. 

Currently there are 26 Dodger farm hands eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

  Player Position
     
1 Stevie Berman Catcher
2 Gersel Pitre Catcher
3 Jair Camargo Catcher
4 Jared Walker LHH 1B
5 Nick Yarnall LHH 1B
6 Jake Peter LHH 2B
7 Zach McKinstry LHH 2B
8 Errol Robinson RHH SS
9 Leonel Valera RHH SS
10 Cristian Santana RHH 3B
11 DJ Peters RHH OF
12 Cody Thomas LHH OF
13 Carlos Rincon RHH OF
14 Starling Heredia RHH OF
15 Romer Cuadrado RHH OF
16 Mitchell White RHP
17 Leo Crawford RHP
18 Jesus Vargas RHP
19 Elio Serrano RHP
20 Joe Broussard RHP
21 Parker Curry RHP
22 Shea Spitzbarth RHP
23 Nolan Long RHP
24 Michael Boyle RHP
25 Ryan Moseley RHP
26 Jordan Sheffield RHP
     

From this list there are only two prospects that I would consider locks; DJ Peters and Mitchell White.    I would consider Cristian Santana and Jordan Sheffield as next in line possibilities if room could be made.  Some blogs have included as both Zach McKinstry and Leo Crawford as borderline consideration.  I think the Dodgers expose both McKinstry and Crawford.  If a team thinks they can remain on the 26  man for all of 2020, good for that player, but both are luxuries and not needs. 

Toles and Alvarez are likely DFA candidates or outright release candidates, giving Peters and White their spot on the 40 man.  If AF considers Alvarez just too valuable of an arm, he does have other possibles. Other candidates for DFA or release include Tyler White and Kris Negron who have zero options remaining.  That opens it up for two additional considerations for the 40 man (Santana & Sheffield?).  Santana was exposed last year but was not selected.  Has he really improved that much for a team to take a chance on him for the full season on the 26 man?   Three relief pitchers on the current 40 man who could be moved depending on need for space are JT Chargois, Dylan Floro, and Adam Kolarek.  One question that has to be answered by Kolarek is whether he can get RHH’s out. Kolarek is a tremendous loogy, but the three batter rule will be a factor in 2020.     

Between now and November 20, and again before December 2, is when many players are traded for that proverbial Player To Be Named Later or cash considerations to free up space on the 40 man.   

It is not too early for AF to look at 2020 Rule 5 candidates and make sure there is going to be room, so they are not blocked.  If not traded beforehand, both Connor Wong (Catcher) and Omar Estevez (2B/SS) are sure to be protected next November.     Pitchers Edwin Uceta and Gerardo Carrillo also figure to be protected.  On the cusp will be OF’s Zach Reks and Donovan Casey, but as of now they are more likely to be exposed.  One OF that does not figure to be protected is Jeren Kendall.        

Remember that while most fans are more concerned with who is on the 26 man roster, AF is a master at depth and is extremely involved in determining the entire 40 man roster.    We all have our favorites, and one fan’s 40 man list may not agree with others, or more importantly AF’s list. If I am being objective (as much as I can be), I am releasing Tyler White and Kris Negron and adding DJ Peters and Mitchell White. I would not release Toles or Alvarez until I absolutely needed to.            

This article has 16 Comments

  2. I agree with your choices and opinions, AC. I still root for Ryan Moseley and hope he can do better next year. I would love to see DJ Peters and White up on the team in some capacity.
    Agree on Tyler White and Negron and am curious to see what happens to Toles and Alvarez.

  4. I go back and forth on Kolarek. He’s The Grim Reaper to lefties and Iron Mike to righties. Then I think of Doc, with Mr. MaGoo vision and Charlie Brown luck and can see there’s no way Kolarek can be useful on this team.

    There’s some dead space on the 40 man right now, so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem protecting a few more guys…
    Chargois / Floro I guess you can keep one of them. They’re kind of the same guy. Right handed versions of Kolarek.
    Kolarek – Doc will NOT get the best from this guy
    Negron – Why is this guy still on the roster?
    White – He was Freese insurance and wasn’t very good insurance at that.

    I wouldn’t protect Alvarez. No one is going select his contract and salary cap hit for a guy that didn’t pitch last year and makes Puig look like a model citizen.

    Same for Toles, he’s my first cut. If I were running a charity, I would keep him around. This is a baseball team with Championship inspirations, let a small market team with roster space take a chance on Toles.

    There’s a lot of names on the eligible list that I like, too many to list. But, there’s only a few who have to chance to stay on a roster for the whole year. I’m not taking any chances on Peters or Sheffield. Peters is good enough defensively to keep as a 4th outfielder on a second division team. Sheffield is probably as good as Shaggy or Floro right now.

    I guess we won’t be seeing too many one side pitchers anymore. A lot of side-armers and submariners will be fetching carts from Target parking lots next summer, especially left handed ones.

    1. Thanks AC for the write up. I agree with 59inarow about Toles. His status is I known, so it’s doubtful any club would pick him up. Hopefully he can get everything in order, regardless of whether he ever plays again or not.

      1. I look at it this way. Neither Negron or White are needed at all. There is no reason to keep them on the 40 man. If there is a need next year, you can find similar players as was done in 2019. If you think that Cristian Santana or Jordan Sheffield or any other player needs to be protected from the draft, then you can look at Toles or Alvarez. But it serves no purpose to remove two players who are more likely to benefit the team in the future more than White and Negron, even if that possibility is remote (and I agree that it is). You need 40 men on the roster. Santana was exposed last year and got through and I just cannot see any team picking up Sheffield and retaining him on the 26 man for the season. Even if some team does select Sheffield, does anyone really believe that the Dodgers cannot find a reliever that will benefit the team more than Jordan in 2020 and beyond? IMO as much of a head case as Alvarez is, he does have a higher ceiling than does Sheffield. That is why I would protect Alvarez before Sheffield. What if Toles gets whatever ails him corrected by ST? He is a proven MLB player and again his ceiling is higher than Santana or Sheffield. Although I could see an argument for Santana, and he would be my wild card.

    2. There is no salary cap hit for Alvarez. All of his dollars came as a bonus not as a salary. You may be thinking of Yaisel Sierra.

      There are plenty on the list that I like as well, but outside of Peters and White the likelihood that any will be drafted and expected to stay on the roster for the full season are negligible. Most on that list have been exposed for multiple years and have never been selected. As one scout told me, most player personnel people look at who has the highest ceiling, and they are the ones protected. Kyle Garlick was not protected last year, and he was not drafted. He was not considered to have a higher ceiling than Beaty or Rios.

      There is plenty of time to remove the “dead weight” from the 40 man, but why start options for players that you do not need to as long as you believe they will go undrafted? I love Zach McKinstry, but does anyone really believe that the Dodgers cannot replace him if by some obscure chance some team does draft him and keep him? Downs, Estevez, Amaya…How many do you need?

      Santana is a good player, but with Miguel Vargas and Kody Hoese coming up behind him, is he a necessity or a luxury? Who has a higher ceiling Santana or Toles and Alvarez. I think most baseball people would look at the skill set and say that if Toles gets his head right and if Alvarez gets his heart/desire back, both have higher ceilings. If you need space because of a trade, of course they should be the first to go.

      1. I would agree with you about Toles, if he didn’t already go through “issues” with the Rays. It looked like he put his ‘issues” behind him when he came to the Dodgers, then it reared it’s ugly head again. On top of all of this, he’s another lefty swinging 4th outfielder type without enough pop to justify a corner. I agree with you that you don’t cut someone with some Major League success to protect guys that won’t stay on a ML roster all year, until you have to.

  5. Everyone has always known that Tyler White could hit. His weight was the big issue. Conditioning was part of the Max Muncy puzzle. Tyler White could be David Freese if the Dodgers are successful in handling his thyroid condition and keeping him fit. He looked like a different person in that photo.

    1. I’m trying to figure out the Max Muncy reference, and your David Freese reference for that matter. Max got a little worse offensively after shedding a few pounds, but it allowed him to be passable at 2B. Freese was a career 17 WAR player over 11 years who had a penchant for big moments. A decent player? Ask the Angels fans about him and they’ll give you a different story. He was really good in the post-season, but it’s hard to make an impact when you’re sitting on the bench. Too little, too late.

      Tyler White is basically a replacement level player with no position. If Tyler White could be David Freese, then Joc Pederson could hit left handed pitching.

      I just want to reiterate, I’m not suggesting to cut guys like White and Toles to protect rule 5 guys that have no chance on staying on a roster next year. I’m just saying that guys like White and Toles are very expendable when we add other players this offseason.

      Right now, our roster seems pretty full as we’re talking about potentially cutting guys off the 40 to make room for rule 5 protections. That’s before we add a couple of bullpen arms, a starter and a RH middle of the order bat.

  6. So.

    I’ve been playing around with the trade simulator some more:
    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

    The Rough Contours of a deal are:

    CWS gets
    Joc Pederson (from Dodgers)
    George Valera (from Indians)
    Civale (from Indians)

    CLEVE gets:
    Seager (from Dodgers)
    Maeda (from Dodgers)
    Kopech (from CWS)
    James Beard (from CWS)

    LAD gets:
    Lindor (from Indians)
    Kluber (from Indians)
    Bummer (from CWS)
    Konor Pilkington (from CWS)
    Rocchio (from Indians)

    1. Ah. Forgot one element.

      This isn’t pure speculation (well, it is) but it’s based on the reports that CWS was interested in Pederson and the Dodgers in Kluber/Lindor.

  7. Very informative AC! I think they add McKinstry, only if they plan on trading CT3 or Kike.

    Bluto – that’s an interesting trade scenario. That seems like a steep price for the Dodgers, though.

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