So many fans look at the Flavor of the Week, which is the player that has the great stats RIGHT NOW or YESTERDAY. That’s the guy they want. These are the flavors of the week right about now:
- Anthony Rendon – Career year
- Gerrit Cole – Career year
- Aaron Bummer – Career year
They want those guys because they are thinking they will be the same guys when they are traded for or are signed as free agents. Most often, they are not! What they have accomplished is history. It means something… but not everything. Over 70% of the time, when you sign a player like that, you are paying for past performance and that does not equal what will happen in the future. You will never… and I repeat NEVER build a great team that way. The way you build a great team is to get those guys before they are those guys. That is exactly how the Astros were built. They got Cole and Verlander when they were both having what was arguably their worst years.
Attention to certain fans who are critical of Andrew Friedman and want him to sign players such as the aforementioned: When you say that stuff you lose ever scintilla of credibility you may have ever (never) had. Sorry if I offend you, but maybe I can teach you something. You don’t buy a stock when it is at the top. You buy it at the bottom. Yes, I buy into the hype myself sometimes, but after careful consideration, whoever buys Gerrit Cole or Anthony Redon is a dumbass… unless it is a shorter deal!
All you are paying for is past performance. Anthony Rendon had his career year in 2019. Will it be the same in 2020? Maybe… maybe not! Gerrit Cole? Maybe… or not! You will go broke buying stocks that way and there is a very tangible reason why you should not pick baseball players that way either: It’s the road to failure!
Again, I don’t want to offend a few (3) of you, but you really have no clue! Actually, you have negative clues. Everyone rolls their eyes at your fictitious assertions. Some fans are just old and want a title, so I get that (but I’m old too). Others? I am not sure what their issues are, but my advice is to seek help. You are too young to live this way.
Winning the World Series is so much more than building just the best super team by signing Free Agents. Now, I am not saying that there is not a time to sign a big free agent and they might do just that. If the Mets do not extend the QO to Zach Wheeler, I would not be opposed to a fair deal with him. If Rendon wants a 5-year/$175 million deal, I might do that. Gerrit Cole is likely to get a really long, really big deal and I think that could really be bad, bad, bad for the team who signs him. Will he be like Max Scherzer or David Price? You really don’t know.
Aaron Bummer looks really good and he may remain very good… but he has had just one good year and you never know. What I do know is trading for Aaron Bummer now will cost a great deal… not scraps, but scraps and major prospects. It like buying stocks at the top. You have nowhere to go, but down.
Why are more and more teams (like the Red Sox) hiring guys like Andrew Friedman, with a finance and statistical background? Very simple: They understand valuation… not just money, but anything… especially players. It rarely makes sense to overpay for anything… many times, the player(s) you trade for are not as good as the players you just traded. Witness the Pirates getting Archer and giving up Meadows and Glasnow. Really, really dumb… and many Dodger fans wanted Archer.
Think about this: The Dodgers could have traded for Justin Verlander in 2017, IF they were not paying Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez $44 Million! Of course, the Friedman Bashers will say he was paying McCarthy and Kazmir too, but those deals paled in comparison to Crawfish and Gonzalez.
Of course, the Astros were built much differently than the Dodgers. The Astros tanked for years and amassed a ton of top draft picks and built the team back up to a powerhouse. In 2017, they had so much payroll space that their payroll was about half of the Dodgers $256 Million. They did not win by spending, they won by drafting smart and spending smart. So cut out the disingenuous fiction about the Dodgers Front Office. That is foolish drivel and brands you as a moron.
The Dodgers have spent more than anyone in baseball the past 5 years while maintaining a winning… even a Championship Caliber Team. The farm is stocked and if you want Aaron Bummer, you will have to give up Jo Jo Gray or Dustin May and others. Gray and May are going to be pretty good… probably better than Bummer.
The Astros built the best farm system a few years ago by losing and drafting high. The Dodgers built a TOP 3 Farm System by winning and drafting low. That is so rare that it has never been done in the history of the game, so when you say stuff like ” The Dodgers will also not win the WS and will probably not even get there” you brand yourself as delusional and either biased for some reason or ignorant of the facts.
The Dodgers were willing to give Zack Greinke $155 Million over 5 years, but not $206 Million over 6 years. Don’t even mention Clayton Kershaw – you have to sign your own legends. HAVE TO! AF has a number for Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon. If it makes sense, he will do it. If it doesn’t, he won’t. Having salary flexibility enabled the Astros to get Justin Verlander. If the Dodgers have salary flexibility, they may be able to trade for someone who is not even on the market right now, but dope-fiend moves rob you of the ability to make deals at the right time. Imagine what would have happened had the Dodgers traded for Verlander.
The fact that they didn’t was on Kasten and Colletti, not Andrew Friedman. Carl Crawfish and Gonzo cost the Dodgers Justin Verlander and maybe THREE STRAIGHT WORLD SERIES TITLES!
Captain Timmons has set up his chum line and I’m sure it will entice “the 3” to bring it… Oh yeah and I love the way he once again had a chance to rag on Adrian… 3 WS titles becuz of him??? Damn!!!
By now you may know that I despise multi yr./multi $$$ contracts and because as MT reminds us ‘are you sure you’re getting that guy’…It is not Pujols or Adrian’s fault they were bestowed this mountain of moolah….
Oh well, anxious to get a look at Verdugo this spring and see if he can help us…
And then there’s who is the next Muncy ??? Still baffled by Max…
Sit tight, too early to fret… Is something big coming down the pike!?!?
You don’t offend me Mark. I like your posts and you just say it like you see it.
You can not have free speech without offending someone.
I would like to see this world series be one in which the home team loses every game.
I just think I could enjoy watching Nats fans and Astros fans suffer through these games.
Spokane I hope you don’t think MT offends me…Just trying to inject a lil humor before the crapola hits the fan… Take for instance the end of yesterdays post… you call it free speech I say tomato you say etc. etc…
59… There can’t be many promoting a Seager trade!??! Using an MT’ism, “moronic”…
Not at all pererj. Your’s is one of the many voices on this blog that contribute to the enjoyment here.
I believe Rendon is now 2 for 13 in theWS including swinging at the first pitch several times last night. Guess this guarantees he’ll be signing with LA.
I like your post Mark. They always stimulate your thinking. You build a team with your farm. Then fill in with free agents. I do not like trades. However, Freidman knows which farm kids he can trade. He knows those on the 25 team he can trade. Posters wanted to trade Bellinger, Seager, Verdugo and Lux. Friedman will not trade his good prospects.
Friedman has been able to build the farm with low draft choices and still maintain a winning team. That is not how it is supposed to work. Friedman is not perfect, but I will take him over anyone out there. I wish I could say the same for Doc.
What difference does it make when Mr. Magoo will find a way to screw it all up anyways?
AF has done an outstanding job building a great MLB team and maintaining a top farm, but he ain’t perfect. On the other side of the ledger:
Doc, McCarthy, Anderson, Kazmir. The bargain bin is hit and miss.
I have no problems signing a free agent at the beginning of their prime and paying them through age 36 if your team is ready to win now. We are ready to win now. A ring is worth paying a player a year or two past their prime.
The only thing stupider than signing a free agent and paying him for past performance is trading away a cost controlled player at a premium position and losing his prime years. Corey Seager will NOT be traded. Andrew is not stupid. Many of us are.
Mr Timmons i think Mr Carl Crawford deserves more respect as he actually was DFA and he was not as bad of a player, yes it was a bad trade maybe and huge contract but he actually could hit and play when healthy and if you see his stats he actually performed very well during playoffs for Dodgers and Gonzalez was a very good player as well. Crawford actually had a couple of homers or at least one big 3 run home run against the Braves in 2013 or 2014.
As far as i know Mr Pollock was 0-13 with 11 ks probably one of the worst postseason stat lines ever in recent memory. This genius front office is responsible for signing Pollock to an overpriced guaranteed 5 year contract when the player has not shown any durability in his career and all knew it was a risk. He did bat decently and is a good player but his defense was clearly bad this year and is a player you cant count to be on the field everyday and Taylor could have done his job and even provides better defense. AF even did a worst decision in signing overrated reliever Joe Kelly when in 2018 with BOS he had a 4.37 ERA and in his first season in LA even worst than that and with tons of walks and command issues barely reaching 50 innings and also a horrendus post season performance.
Dodgers in past have DFA players like Brian Wilson, Crawford who were not as bad as these two signings or signings like : Mcarthy, Kazmir, Brett Anderson, and others . Even Rich Hills has been overpaid when this guy cant stay on the field. He should not have been on postseason roster if he barely could pitch as well as Kelly who was not in game shape and was terrible. Friedman and Roberts let Kendrick go and he hunt them having the GW home run and have replaced these players with mediocre signings.
If they don’t sign Cole, Rendon, etc. Okay but do not bring over price contracts to bad players as they have been doing all these years ! And make good trades instead. Either they spent big and bring the top players or don’t spent at all on bad players.
I posted this late in the last thread and had no replies:
Will Lux really get sent back to AAA? Would this be a good idea as some have suggested? This could backfire on the team as we will be in the same position regarding not having a positional player taking charge and we’ve suffered through that for some years, now.
Also, how would it affect Lux’s perceived trade value now for the future if he is demoted to AAA? He was a top prospect. It seems this would hurt the Dodgers chances of packaging him in a trade. Any insights?
I don’t really consider Lux starting off in AAA as a demotion as he was a September call up. I also don’t think it’s Standard Operating Procedure to expect a 21/22 year old to be an impact player. The Soto’s are the exception to the rule. Anthony Rendon, the big prize free agent this year, played his first full season as a 24 year old, which is why he’s still under team control as a 29 year old in his career year. If you bring your players up too soon, you just might lose them before their prime years. So, no. I don’t think that would effect his trade value, and even more so, I don’t think he’ll be traded anyways.
Wanted to pull on everybody’s chain today, did ya? Too funny, Mark. Ever watch people shopping in a store at Christmas? They’re looking for a specific item, but there are several brands, some more costly than others. The shopper is looking for the best deal. Is the most expensive one the best or maybe one of the others that may cost less? That’s the predicament. You can project, but there is always a degree of uncertainty. Of course you want to pay less, but you also want something that works and will last.
That’s the same dilemma facing Friedman.
Add in the fact, that the entire organization is feeling the need to win it all. Don’t think for a minute that ownership and management aren’t feeling pressure. They’re all very aware of the disappointment, anger among the fan base and the constant criticism in the media. 2020 is a Big Year for the Dodgers. They’re making massive improvements to Dodger Stadium, reportedly over a hundred million dollars, and they’re hosting the All-Star game. All of this isn’t lost on them.
Now Friedman is a pretty cool influence. He will approach all this with caution, looking for opportunities. But he also wants to win. Not even Stan Kasten wants the Dodgers known as the second coming of the Atlanta Braves.
Now go back, Mark, to the Nick Punto trade, which was a big win for the Red Sox, allowing them to dump payroll and accelerate winning a World Series. But it was also a win for the Dodgers. Coming off the Frank McCourt debacle where there were empty seats throughout the stadium and protestors at the gates, the new ownership group needed to do something dramatic to make a statement to the fans and the media. Factor in the Dodgers were looking ahead to find a power hitting first baseman and pickings were slim.
Thus the trade and taking on some very bad contracts just to acquire Gonzo. It wasn’t about value. It was a statement. Remember, it wasn’t Ned Colletti who orchestrated the deal, it was Kasten and ownership (Molly Knight’s Book). Great read. by the way.
Being totally honest, I have no idea what Friedman will do and at this point, he doesn’t either. He will explore possibilities at the GM meetings and go from there. But the Dodgers are in prime position to do something big and another statement certainly wouldn’t hurt.
Is this blog called LAdodgertalk or MARKTIMMONSTALK ??
That was funny Carlos. If you do not like this blog or Mark Timmons, then why are you here? It is fine to disagree with him and share your opposite opinions, but I think you are doing a disservice to him and yourself by being a wee bit vindictive, maybe? Waiting for the marshmallows to be thrown at me.
Can you have sense of humor DodgerBluemom ! Just being friendly with him ! That is all. I agree with some things but agree to disagree respectfully and that is why we all are here to talk about Dodgers.
Ok thank you Carlos for responding. My sense of humor is fine, just read my “marshmallows” comment. It is just that sometimes it is hard to tell what is humor without hearing a tone of voice or see a face. Sorry if I offended you.
No Of course not mom !!! Maybe i did not understood !! I was just teasing him not in a bad way. I appreciate your comment so much ! Thank you ! God bless
I think FO has Mr. Mark Timmons on Payroll ! Why don’t you just admit you work for them … Just Teasing MT
What makes you think I’m not on their payroll.?
Well, last year it sounded like Doc and Verdugo were paying you directly. I see you backed off on Doc, finally!
Backing Doc up is really hard to do, even if you like the guy !
First, thanks to Dodgerfan for exhibiting class at the end of the previous thread by offering me his apology. As he pointed out, just a difference of opinion.
Mark, I’m not exactly sure that Rendon had what could be described as a career year, given the circumstances under which he did it. The two categories in which he outpaced what he had done in previous years were HRs and RBIs, and I believe that both were the result (at least partially) of the juiced baseball. Since Einstein told us it’s all relative, and it turns out that there is less juice in the 2020 ball, then we can only expect that his numbers will be relative to those conditions. Nothing is guaranteed, but it seems reasonable that Rendon will perform relative to what he has done over the past several years, which is pretty damn good.
As for Cole, I do have my reservations. As much as I would like to have him, I do recognize the caveats, and would be amenable to a less costly and constricting contract with another pitcher. But I do believe that the Dodgers need another good quality arm to help ease our own good quality young arms into the rotation.
Agree with you on Rendon. He is the kind of player the Dodgers want. Patient at the plate (WS not withstanding) and is hard to strike out. I’d take either versions of Rendon (this/last year).
I agree with sbuffalo’s comment that ownership and management ARE feeling pressure to win a WS. They want to make money, of course, but they also know that they need to win the Grand Prize or the fans will revolt.
How will they revolt? I don’t think we can underestimate the importance of the Angels’ hiring of Joe Maddon, a media genius. Maddon will, just from his personality, get the Angels a lot of extra coverage this year. Arte Moreno has already committed to spending more money on payroll this year. The team already has Trout (one of the 10 best of all time), Ohtani (the best 2-way player of all time) and Adell (top 5 prospect) under control and may very well add Cole ++.
No city is a 2-team city. One of the teams is always top dog. This has been a Laker city forever, but that may come to an end this year. The Clippers may finally win the championship. They have a good chance of overtaking the purple and gold. The Dodgers are in somewhat of the same position as the Lakers. They’d better be looking over their shoulder or this could become an Angel town, at least temporarily. And that is why I think AF will do some un-Andrew like maneuvers this winter. There is another choice for fans. It’s just that it’s been a long time since the Angels did anything about that.
Perhaps you should just become an Angels fan, and avoid the Dodgers fan revolt. By the way, Ohtani is not the best 2-way player of all time, take time to look at Babe Ruth’s pitching and batting stats. Ohtani has a long way to go before even being mentioned in the same sentence with Ruth. Dodgers have been in LA since 1958, and had some really bad years without any fan “revolt.” Fans like winners, and that is what the Dodgers have done for the better part of the last decade without winning the World Series, but still breaking attendance records. How did being a “media genius” work out for Maddon? You can put lipstick on a pig (eg “media genius”), but it is still a pig; LA will never be an Angels town. Friedman is not going to panic, or stray from the long term strategy.
Point well taken on Ruth, SCB. I’m moving Ohtani to #2.
I’ve been a Dodger fan since 1954 so I’m a little old in the tooth to switch my allegiance now.
I guess my point was basically that I don’t agree with those who think that ownership is just interested in turning a profit and that they do feel pressure (however you might define that) to win a WS.
My other point was that with the three players I mentioned, plus maybe another couple of high profile free agents, plus Maddon , the Angels will be getting a lot more media time than they have in the past few years.
Not sure how many people live here, but LA proper – there’s zero Angels fans. But, where I live, everyone was wearing Red for well over a decade after the Angels won their World Series and you’re just now seeing blue around town. So, while there won’t be an exodus or even a diaspora, there’s still plenty of $$ on fringes to fight over.
I’m not sold on the two way player trend that’s going on right now. There’s a reason why it hasn’t been done much, if at all, since the Babe, and remember that the Babe only did it for a while. Ohtani as generated some buzz because of it. But, how valuable is it to have a part time DH? You certainly can’t attract a good full-time DH. I also think it’s weird that he doesn’t hit on days that he pitchers, like every single NL pitchers. I digress.
I’m not an Angels fan, nor do I hate them.
Peace! You can keep your Dodgers fan card :-). We have been fans for the same number of years. We suffered through some really bad Dodgers teams in those 65 years, but never did I (or apparently you) consider giving up on the Bums. That is part of being a true fan, hanging in during the tough times, and reveling in the good. I expect Guggenheim partners to one day sell the Dodgers for a very nice profit, so we don’t know how they will be run, but as long as Friedman is in charge of operations I believe the team will be competing for the World Championship every season. By the way, I follow the Angels and wish them the best in Orange County, where we lived for 20 years.
That is exactly what they said when The Angels signed Pujols and Hamilton. How did that work out?
I do agree that they feel the need to win however.
MT : Pujols easily is older than what is stated. He is probably like 42 years old now !! It was really dumb signing. He is older . There are a lot of Latin players specially Dominican or Cuban that are for sure older than what is stated. I think Puig is probably 33 to 35 years old and Guerrero was probably like 35 or more.
Both Pujols and Hamilton were 32 in their first year with the Angels (and as Carlos says, Pujols may well be older than advertised).
Trout will be 28 next year, Ohtani 25, and Adell, if brought up, would be 21. Age does make a difference.
How did that work out? Well, they haven’t won shit, just like us. But, there were still a lot of red hats around my house until just the last few years.
Our host, in his inimitable fashion, chooses to be insulting while espousing a point of view. I would like to make a few observations, but won’t otherwise take the bait.
1 – Cole indeed has had his best season but has had 2 others nearly as good (2015, 19 – 6, 2.60 at age 24 with Pittsburgh and 2018, 15 – 5, 2.88 with Houston). At 29 he is likely at his peak now. A contract longer than 4 years is a big risk with any 29 year old pitcher. On the other hand, if you sign a pitcher like Cole to a longer term contract, you do it knowing that you will get what you pay for at the front end but probably not at the end. This isn’t Friedman’s way of doing things and I don’t expect to see Cole wearing Dodger Blue. Having Cole and Buehler lead the rotation next year would give the Dodgers a better chance to win a short series than they had this season. I just don’t think that it will happen.
Rendon has also had his best season but not his only very good season. As a position player, there isn’t the same risk of a multi-year contract. He has also left hints that he doesn’t expect to play past his mid-30s. Most would agree that the Dodgers’ offense is too left-handed. Rendon is a defensive upgrade at 3B at this point of Justin Turner’s career.
2 – Justin Verlander is a red herring. He was having a bad season when Detroit traded him to Houston. (He was 10 – 8, 3.82 before the trade.) He had several years left on his contract and looked to be on a downward trajectory. Yu Darvish was considered by most to be the best pitcher available at the deadline. The Dodgers got him at low cost and he was 4 – 3, 3.44 after they obtained him. That it didn’t work out wasn’t Friedman’s fault.
3 – One area where I do fault the Braintrust and their “process” is that the glut of information results in very slow decision making or action taking. There was an interesting post at MLB Trade Rumors today about the Nationals and their GM, Mike Rizzo. Rizzo is now the flavor of the month and he was persona non grata at the beginning of the season, but the interesting point in the article has to do with decision making. After pointing out that Rizzo was a long time scout, it made this observation:
“The Nationals also credit themselves for mixing analytics with instinct in deploying a quick-strike offseason strategy that netted key players like Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki last offseason. Bottomless sieves of data and a competitive landscape rich with intelligent front offices can make decision-making a slog, but the Nationals try not to dwell when instinct can kick-in. It’s served them well, as the Nationals have eight straight winning seasons and a new NL pennant banner to hang.”
The Dodgers have driven me crazy waiting to make the “perfect deal” while missing out on improvements while other teams have moved quickly to get the player that they wanted. I particularly recall the 2015-2016 offseason. While other teams where moving to sign free agent starters, by the time the dust had settled, all that was left was Scott Kazmir, which was a disaster.
I would like the Dodgers to make a plan and then move, rather than waiting for the perfect deal. And that’s were the need to spend a few extra dollars comes in. Will the Dodgers’ new financial freedom allow more freedom of action and more rapid movement, or will Friedman and his Braintrust continue to slog through the off-season?
Of course the great thing about doing something quickly is that you have that much more time to regret your decision.
I like everything Dodgerrick stated. He is absolutely correct about Cole, Darvish, Verlander, Rendon, and waiting too long for that perfect deal. Mark is also correct in that most long term FA deals are not solid investments, and most become boat anchors. Where I differ from Mark is that sometimes you just have to say DO IT. If the Nats did not sign Scherzer to that monster contract, they are not in the WS. But they took a chance and it is paying off. They took a chance on the Strasburg extension, and it is paying off.
Those who are afraid to sign Cole to a Scherzer type deal, you may be right, but what if you’re not? Buehler and Cole would be a very formidable duo at the front of the rotation. Maybe Cole blows out his arm and becomes the next Jason Schmidt or Darren Dreifort, but maybe he wins the CY in LA. Why not? He is certainly capable.
Maybe Rendon does his best AJ Pollock imitation, but maybe he wins the MVP. Again, why not? He is also very capable. It is entirely possible that he ends up no better than Casey Blake. But what if he closer resembles Adrian Beltre?
The Dodgers are in their best position to improve this team during the Winter since AF was hired. They have between $40MM and $45MM in available FA contract money. They have several ML players who are entering their final arbitration year that are trade potential, that can add another $13MM to $15MM. Will they? They have multiple prospects that they can package in a trade. They cannot keep every single prospect. If not this year, when?
It appears that after the heartbreak loss, that Mark is back to hunkering down with his desire to continue to go with what you have and fill in with the minor leaguers. Some of you are convinced that Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are top of the rotation types pitchers, and you may very well be right. The problem is that you are willing to bet that they achieve that this year. I would rather have a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg in front of them for the next several years. This year they can afford one of them.
I would love to see AF make a decision early on and pull the trigger on a trade or sign a major FA. If it bombs, so be it. Last year, they could have signed DJLM and he turned out to be quite the catalyst for NYY. Mark does not believe he would have been a force for LA. I disagree, but we will never know. But if you do not take a chance on a player who has been a batting champ and multiple GG winner, why take a chance on an injury prone OF. IMO, they made the wrong choice. Did they wait too long to pull the trigger on DJLM and settle for Pollock? Or were they never interested?
We know that status quo and tweaking around the parameters has not been good enough. The problem on a blog is that everyone has their own favorite players. Some cannot stand AJ Pollock while some believe he will be a force next year. Some want to trade Joc and some want to extend him. Some want Cole or Rendon, even if it puts them well over the CBT. Some do not want that boat anchor contract. Some are willing to trade DJ Peters, while some believe he is an untouchable. Some believe Ross Stripling will be traded, while others believe he is at least as good as Zach Wheeler. Some want to trade for Aaron Bummer, while others are reluctant because he has only had one good year. Some want to trade for Ken Giles, while others do not trust that he can pitch for a pennant contender or the post season. Carlos still wants Matt Kemp.
If you are not willing to trade for (or sign) a player after playing well, then just say that you are fine with making no trades and are willing to keep looking for the next Max Muncy or Brandon Morrow. Keep bringing up the kids. But at some point, those #27 – #30 draft picks are just not going to keep up with the top #5. The Dodgers wanted Keston Hiura in the draft and thought they had a chance because he did not have a true position, but Milwaukee took a chance and the Dodgers ended up with Jeren Kendall. The Dodgers could have traded for Cole and Yelich, and passed.
Sometimes trades or FA signs work out, sometimes they do not. But if you are afraid to take a chance, then it is time to get out. You cannot just accept middle of the road players and expect to win a championship. Take a chance.
In all fairness, it looked like a good bet to go with Pollock over DJLM. CT3 and Kike were both supposed to be good enough at 2B and Pollock really only had 2 seasons under 800 OPS in his career vs 6 for DJ. Pollock is also a GG winner. Both are around the same age, so that didn’t factor much into the equation. No one saw DJ’s season coming after maxing out at 15 homers in Colorado, then banging 26 with the Yankees. Based on past performance it would be a safe bet that Pollock’s numbers are better than DJ’s next year.
Let me just repeat. DJLM NEVER exceeded 15 homers in CO, but hit 26 for the Yankees last year.
I will point out one other thing. Pollock wound up with an OPS of 795 last year while playing injured quite a bit. DJLM only exceeded that mark twice in his 9 year career. Let’s see what the next few years look like.
Cashman is not a genius for signing DJ, he got lucky.
DJLM has a two year contract, not five. DJLM has a $24MM guarantee, while Pollock has a $60MM. DJLM has already earned his 2 year deal with a 6.0 WAR. AJ and his .2 WAR has a long way to go to earn his full contract. CT3 and Kike’ could have platooned with Joc in LF just as easily as playing 2B. You wanted Pollock over DJLM. I didn’t. I had no problem with signing AJ, but not over DJLM. And that is my point. There is not a consensus player who everybody will agree on. So we are all going to be morons in somebody’s eye.
I have said that If the Dodgers are going to make a dope-fiend move, now is the time. However, we are playing in a vacuum. Rendon says he wants to play to his mid-30’s, but what if someone offers him another 3 years , so that it is a 8-year $240 Million deal. He will have to take that. What if Cole is offered a 10-year $300 million deal?
Just like the Houston HR, at least half of DJLM’s HR would not have been out in LA. Still he would have been better than Pollock.
Why I thought Pollock was a bad signing at the time – his career batting stats were significantly inflated playing his home games in very hitter friendly Chase Field for the Diamondbacks. Away from Chase, Pollock was a very average hitter with a career OPS in the mid 700’s. Although he won a couple of Gold Gloves, his centerfield defense started to decline in 2017, and was less than average in 2018. Then there was his injury history which limited him to 109 games in 2017 and 2018. There were other alternatives for the Dodgers, internally and externally, but they chose poorly. I hope some outfield needy team like the Indians believe that Pollock can still play, but the likelihood is that the Dodgers are stuck with him as a platoon partner with Pederson in LF which could turnout very well considering Pollock’s splits against LH pitching.
Let’s suppose it’s true that Rizzo makes “quick-strike” decisions. And then let’s remember that the Dodgers came within a fraction of an inch off the bat of winning the NLDS when Will Smith connected in the bottom of the 9th in game 5. If that happens the Nationals are remembered as a team that managed to get a wild card berth before being eliminated in the NLDS. And nobody is talking about Rizzo. In fact, if the Nationals were eliminated their fans might well be asking for Rizzo’s head.
We all know about the best laid plans, and we’re all aware that there is an element of luck involved. And that’s why the best team doesn’t win every year.
No matter what anyone writes, the truth is that we haven’t a clue as to whether or not the Dodgers FO slogs through decisions or not. But rest assured that they are now laying out multiple scenarios, and will be ready to act if circumstances line up with their thinking.
And although I don’t have a clue as to the thinking in the Dodgers FO, I seriously doubt if AF and company slog through anything.
I go back and forth on Cole. He will likely take 6 years of which the last 3 will likely be an overpay.
That may be OK if the first 3 years are as a 1/2 level pitcher. One could structure the contract to reflect that with higher early pay ($40/37/35/35/33/30). From the front office and MLB perspective, that is an AAV of $35M. That is the real number AF cares about. That’s the rub, paying $35 for $30 in value.
It’s not such a big deal if the philosophy is to put all the chips in one year and then not make the playoffs after that. Think Boston this year. It may have been a factor in their GM loosing his job.
My personal preference is to field a competitive team every year. I very much don’t like to have a team that I follow be out of it in July just to have one WS ring. I understand the other side though. Just my personal preference if I had to choose-I’d rather have both though!