The off-season is fully here yet, but the banter about the free-agents we should sign or acquire by trade has already begun in full-force. I thought I might join in on the speculation, and throw out some names that haven’t been mentioned before, or at least not recently. Keep in mind that I have not made any in-depth statistical analysis of these players, I don’t have any of their medical information, I don’t know what the financial ramifications would be in acquiring these players, I have not consulted any scouting reports and I do not know if any of these players lack the character to fit into the current Dodger culture. All of which I would want to know if I was actually going to pull the trigger on any trade or free-agent signing.
I will also confess, I’m one who does not think this team needs to be “blown up” or “rebuilt” from top to bottom. Also, while I’m not an apologist for the front office or Dave Roberts, I do think they are doing a great job in their respective positions, and I’m glad that Friedman(and others) and Roberts are working for the Dodgers.
Also, before I get to the topic of the day, I think it would be very important for the Dodgers to name a General Manager. Presently, the Dodgers have Stan Kasten as their President and CEO. President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman answers to him. Directly underneath Friedman, you have Josh Byrnes who is the Vice President of Baseball Operations. Then underneath Byrnes, you have two individuals who are Vice Presidents and Assistant General Managers: Jeffrey Kingston and Brandon Gomes (who I might add, has been a very fast riser up the Dodger organizational ladder). I’m sure that each of these folks has different strengths and skills, and I’m also sure that the blending of these divergent skills is helpful in covering as much ground as possible in all aspects of running a baseball team. And, while, the advent of the president of baseball operations position has made the general manager less of a necessity, for me a general manager creates an important face of the front office. One who, in addition to his baseball duties, can be more of a go-to guy for the media and fans. A lightning rod so to speak, who could deflect some of the attention off of Friedman. The Dodgers survived all of last year without a General Manager. I’m convinced, however, that if they had one, the Dodgers would be playing in the World Series! 🙂 🙂
In addition, they need to solidify their staff before the winter meetings. In an interview with Alana Rizzo, Andrew Friedman said that “at least 13 requests on employees” have been made by other organizations to interview current people paid by the Dodgers. They may all be front-office types, I don’t know. Either way, it leads to an inordinate amount of time focused on staffing and personnel issues. Friedman also indicated that Bob Geren may be a candidate for one of the current managerial openings. He certainly would seem deserving. In any event, the smoother the transition with those positions, and the on the field and minor league staffing, the better I think it is.
Here’s some of my thoughts on somewhat under the radar players that might be of some value to the Dodgers(ignoring the obvious that Mike Trout, Christian Yellich, Jacob DeGrom and Blake Snell could be of help): While I’m only looking at players that are not on the top of everyone’s lists, I share the AC’s opinion that the Dodgers need to “go bold” this off-season. What that means, I’m not sure. It would be fun to have some Manny Ramirez type excitement added to the team.
Possible Free Agents:
Obviously, Cole and Rendon top this list. I do think, however, that Cole signs with the Angels or the Padres. No matter what the cost, financially, he makes the most sense for either of those teams. Then again, California state taxes, being what they are, will cut into his earnings more than most other states. Others to possibly consider are:
If Russell Martin does not come back, we may want to revisit former Dodger legend, Travis d’Arnaud. If not him, Martin Maldonado, Jason Castro or Jonathan Lucroy are back-up catching possibilities. There is nothing spectacular about these players, but I think that Austin Barnes, despite his struggles last year, would be a valuable trade chip. I also think that Keibert Ruiz needs a season to recover from his injury. It would be helpful to have a seasoned catcher to back up Smith.
Other than Cole, starting pitchers I might kick the tires on are Rick Porcello and Zack Wheeler.
Relief pitchers I would check on, are Cody Allen (good bounce-back candidate), Drew Pomeranz and Greg Holland. If Shane Greene is non-tendered, I would check in on him as well.
Other than Rendon, the only position player I might consider is Avisail Garcia. I’m not as sold on Nick Castellanos as others are on this blog. I think Garcia might give us close to the same production for a lot less money.
Possible Trade Candidates:
The Baltimore Orioles are in need of lots of help. Players they have which are of interest to me are Trey Mancini, Mychael Givens, Dylan Bundy and former AC favorite, Hunter Harvey.
The WhiteSox are also a team with many needs. Several have indicated a desire to acquire Aaron Bummer, but I’m not as enamored with him as most. I might be a little more interested in Jimmy Cordero or Nate Jones. Also, if we want to go bold, I would do whatever we could to pry Lucas Giolito from them. He would be a player that would be an overpay candidate for me.
I would inquire with the Indians about Nick Wittgren and Corey Kluber. Despite his miserable year, Kluber appears to be a good bounce-back candidate. He was a very good pitcher and, like money, they don’t grow on trees.
I would also check in with the Tigers about David McKay and, of course, Matthew Boyd (he could be a replacement for Ryu, if Boras makes him too expensive).
I would also ask the Mets about Seth Lugo and, perhaps, Edwin Diaz (he was bad, but I don’t believe he’ll remain that bad).
There are a couple of old friends I would check in on, Scott Barlow of the Royals and Victor Arano of the Phillies. While I’m talking to the Royals, I would also ask about the availability of Whit Merrifield. He is another “go bold” player, who would provide us with something I think we really need: a bona fide leadoff hitter and a decent second baseman. I think his acquisition would make us forget that we didn’t sign DJLM last year. He would also allow the Dodgers to have greater flexibility with their trade assets.
Someone recently mentioned the idea of trading with the Reds for Michael Lorenzen. I like that idea. While talking to the Reds I would also ask them about Lucas Sims and Trevor Bauer.
I would also circle back around to Texas Rangers, and plead with them for Jose Leclerc. If they weren’t willing to part with him, maybe they would let loose of Emmanuel Clase. He appears to be someone who could break out in the next few years and fill the Pedro Baez role.
I also like Kevin Giles of the BlueJays, and they certainly need some younger players to help them out.
One wild idea for a trade is to send Kershaw to the Rangers for Lance Lynn. We would probably have to eat lots of Kershaw’s salary and add a prospect or two. Maybe going back to Texas would help Kershaw overcome his playoff demons. Another wild idea is to trade Kershaw to Houston for Zack Grienke. I’m not sure Kershaw would like pitching in Houston’s bandbox of a stadium, but maybe their analytics gurus could work the same magic on him that they did Verlander. Mind you, these are wild trade proposals. Also, I want CK to be a Dodger for life. He has meant so much to this organization and I still believe he can turn it around and give us Justin Verlander(no wait a minute, Verlander gave up 4 runs in the first inning the other night, so he’s no good) or Roger Clemens after age 35 type production, for the remainder of his contract.
Dodger Trade Chips:
I believe the Dodgers top trade chips are Joc Pederson, Austin Barnes, Pedro Baez, Ross Stripling, Dennis Santana, Josh Sborz, Connor Wong, Kyle Garlick, Edwin Rios, Kike, maybe CT3 (I don’t think they trade both, but I believe Zach McKinstry is ready to take on a utility role), Mitchell White, Jacob Amaya, Omar Estevez, Devin Mann, Edwin Uceta, Christian Santana, Leo Crawford, Jeren Kendall, Miguel Vargas, Errol Robinson, Jordan Sheffield, Robinson Ortiz, John Rooney. If they go bold, they may have to consider moving Keibert Ruiz, Jeter Downs or Diego Cartaya. None of these players in and of themselves, other than perhaps Joc, would have other teams licking their chops, but a combination of these players might move the needle as needed.
Despite taking the time to write this, I expect zero of these trade ideas to happen. But, they are my ideas to join the ongoing banter with you folks. It’s the off-season, isn’t it? Let me hear your ideas. I will make one last prediction that I’m relatively confident will come true: Friedman will acquire several reclamation project players that we have never heard of, or we have forgotten that they still played baseball. In that regard, he is not going to change his stripes.
Some Additional Random Thoughts:
• I read the other day that this is the first time that a Bellinger has played in the major leagues without going to the World Series. Rather amazing accomplishment, but then again, it’s ironic that one of the reasons they didn’t go this year was due in part to Cody’s slump in the playoffs. His downward slide seemed to start right about the time the fans started the “MVP, MVP, MVP” chant. Not sure if it had anything to do with it, but it is a coincidence not to ignore. I, for one, wish the fans would hold off on that until after he actually won the award.
• I wonder how much the Astro blogs lit up when Verlander gave up 4 runs in the 1st inning on Friday? I also wonder it the Astro fans blamed AJ Hinch for Verlander’s performance? Just curious.
• I don’t mind the Yankees getting beat by the Astros. But, I can’t say that I’m excited about the Astros going to the World Series. They have some fine young players, but the Roberto Osuna trade, right after his domestic violence charge, has left a bad taste in my mouth. I was of the belief that the Dodgers did the right thing by pulling out of the Chapman trade with the Reds after his domestic violence issues.
• I remain convinced that Cody Bellinger and Cory Seager are two players that the Dodgers must hold onto. The only way I trade either one of them is in a “go bold” move where I’m assured that I’m getting equal or greater value in return.
• A bullpen game in the playoffs! My how the game of baseball has changed.
• Rick Honeycutt will be missed. Not only has he been a great pitching coach, he appears to be a quality man as well. The Dodgers have had some great pitching coaches over the years, Red Adams, Ron Perranoski, and Dave Wallace. Honey ranks right there with the best of them!
• I hope that the Dodgers bring Casey Sadler back. He seems so thrilled to be a Dodger. I’ve always been partial to those players, albeit not stars, who love the thought of playing for the Dodgers. I also think he’s just a click away from being a really good reliever.
• The Dodger loss to the Nationals was as painful and shocking as any I remember. The image of Kershaw squatting on the mound in anguish after the pitch to Soto, and later seeing him in the dugout was heart-wrenching for me. I wanted him to succeed so badly. Even though we’re not dealing with life or death situations, as a human, I truly felt, and still feel, compassion for him.
• As painful as the Dodgers’ loss was, I wonder how Brave fans are feeling these days. Having the pen give up 6 runs in the last two innings of the game one loss. Then, a walk-off loss in game 4. Only to be followed by giving up 10 runs in the first inning of game 5. Ouch! Then again, that’s what they get for that annoying tomahawk chop. I hope they put that to bed forever. I also wonder if the Brave fans are calling for Brian Snitker’s head like the Dodger fans are for Dave Roberts.
I forgot to mention that I only looked at other teams that that I predict would not be competitive next year. Also, some commenters mentioned possible free agents and others to focus on that are mentioned in my article. I had written and submitted this on Saturday and didn’t have time to comment yesterday.
Seem to recall some negative things about Trevor Bauer in the clubhouse. If so, I’d pass on him.
I could see the Dodgers go for Travis d’Arnaud and have Aust8n Barnes as organizational depth.
d’Arnauld pitch framing stats have nose dived in last 2 seasons; 42nd in 2018; 70th in 2019. I would rather see Dodgers bring back Russell Martin for one more season, or stick with Barnes as Smith’s backup. I think Keibert Ruiz will be ready to catch at the ML level in second half of 2020. Broken finger should be 100% well before spring training. Ruiz did struggle with the bat last season in AA, but in AAA he hit very well and only K’d once in 40 at bats.
Good work MT… Let the speculation and dreaming commence…
Like AC with certain players, I’d like to see Barnesy get a new start with some team and that way I could follow him…
MT – could you give us a list of upcoming events or some site that we can go to (I.E. Draft, Awards, P/C report etc.)…
Untouchables??? Striker (first time I used that moniker, probably the last)Belli, Seager … Any others???
Once again, a big thanks to Honeycutt… Haven’t heard Manny Mota’s name lately… A real gem!!! Can’t wait to see him pedaling his butt all over Camelback…
I’m feeling real good about my Lakers… As always Health is the mantra…
Cody MVP??? I think not…This a helluva year for picking that prize…
2D2 good post… my slip was senior moment or brain fart!!!
Petrj – here you go:
Nov. 3: Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners announced.
Nov. 4: Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards Finalists announced.
Nov. 6: Wilson Defensive Players of the Year announced.
Nov. 7: Silver Slugger Awards announced.
Nov. 11-14: General Managers’ meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Nov. 11: Jackie Robinson Rookies of the Year announced.
Nov. 12: Managers of the Year announced.
Nov. 13: Cy Young Awards announced.
Nov. 14: MVP Awards announced.
Nov. 14: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offer (15 days after World Series ends).
Nov. 18: Comeback Players of the Year announced.
Nov. 19: Designated Hitter of the Year announced.
Nov. 19-21: MLB Owners Meetings, Arlington, Texas.
Dec. 2: Non-tender deadline
Dec. 8: Hall of Fame Modern Baseball committee vote announced, Las Vegas.
Dec. 9-12: MLB Winter Meetings, San Diego.
Dec. 12: Rule 5 Draft.
Feb. 11: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players report to Goodyear, Ariz.
Feb. 16: Voluntary reporting date for veteran players.
Feb. 23: Dodgers Spring Training opener vs. Cubs.
March 24: Final exhibition game against the Angels.
March 26: Season home opener vs Giants.
July 14: MLB All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium.
2D2, thanks for this post. It gives a lot of good stuff for many of us who like to throw around names just because we can. Dodgers – Go Bold —-Needs to go viral.
Yes, I have been a Hunter Harvey fan for several years, and injuries have just crippled his development. Hunter is now a candidate to become an overpowering relief pitcher. Dodgerrick wants a reliever who throws hard, then Harvey is the type of arm that he could be happy with. He is a closer in the making. His fastball averages 98+ that he throws 70% of the time and has two offspeed pitches that appear to be plus. He is also working on a split finger. He turns 25 for next season, curiously the same age as when Mariano Rivera broke in. Keeping with Baltimore, I have also been an Austin Hays fan. He will have a baseball age of 24 next year, and his injuries seem to be behind him. He is the RH bat I wanted for the last few years. Both of these guys are the kind of players that Mark likes to call the guy before he was the guy.
I would prefer Castellanos over Avisail Garcia. Garcia had the one great year, but has not had good OBP for most of his career. Garcia does not have the power of Castellanos, but is a better defender than Castellanos. Castellanos has improved defensively even if still considered negative. He would play LF in LA rather than RF, so his defensive liabilities would be negated somewhat. I agree with Mark that RVS might be able to get Castellanos to the next level as he did with JDM. The problem with Castellanos is that teams like ChiSox, Seattle, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Boston, will undoubtedly offer a big contract to be their DH. So the Dodgers chances may very well be tied to his desire to play OF. Garcia may be a more complete player, but Castellanos has the higher hit ceiling, what the Dodgers need.
I brought up Drew Pomeranz yesterday and continued for my hype with Michael Lorenzen. Why Pomeranz is not getting much attention baffles me. He was almost unhittable with Milwaukee in relief last year. If Pomeranz still wants to start, I would pass. But if he wants to remain in relief, I would love to see what he could do in LA. I have liked the potential of Lorenzen since he moved to the bullpen in 2016. He has been blocked somewhat by Raisel Iglesias and lately Amir Garrett. Plus I am partial to Cal State Fullerton guys. He has a big power arm that needs to work on his control. But the Reds cannot have Jeter Downs or Jo Jo Gray back.
Lucas Giolito would be the epitome of going bold. However, the ChiSox actually believe they can contend in 2020 in a week AL Central, and Giolito will be their Ace. With Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez already in the fold and Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning knocking on the door, they have the making of a quality rotation by the end of the year, and it could be very good in 2021. Their problem is that they do not have much after them in the minors.
I am afraid we are in the minority with wanting Corey Kluber (along with Singing The Blue). But we do not get to make decisions, so everyone is safe unless AF agrees with the minority.
Someone brought up Seth Lugo last season around the trade deadline, and I thought that was a great idea. It appears that NYM is looking for Lugo to get back in the rotation if they lose Wheeler (and they likely will).
You brought up Roberto Osuna. I lost a lot of respect for Jeff Luhnow for trading for Osuna. He belonged in jail, not on the mound in a MLB game.
Good stuff, 2D2.
Thank you AC! Hunter Harvey has become more intriguing to me. Not only does he throw hard, his spin rate is of the type the Dodgers relish. I don’t think this is a trade would happen, as I could envision a Keibert Ruiz for Harvey swap. But the one thing the Orioles don’t need is a prospect catcher. Maybe Jo JO Gray for Harvey. Fun to speculate.
I’m more and more enamored with Pomeranz. He would be a great bullpen piece. Like you, I’m also partial to CSF Titans players. The son of one of my dear friends was a starting pitcher for CSF from 1998-2001. My friend still has season tickets to all of their games and keeps me posted on what’s happening with all of the Fullerton baseball community. Their baseball alumni and families remain extremely loyal to that program. My favorite college baseball team will always be the USC Trojans, followed closely by the Arizona Wildcats(their coach, Jay Johnson, played with my son in college and is a family friend), Long Beach State Dirtbags (my daughter is a graduate of LBS) and Cal. Baptist University(Riverside team that did quite well in it’s first year in D-1 last year).
I’m ambivalent on Garcia, but I thought I would throw his name out there, as he is right-handed and he would be a LOT cheaper than NC. Plus, if you use WAR as a measuring tool, Garcia’s is higher in comparable time. NC’s ceiling is definitely higher.
I like your theme that the Dodgers need to “go bold.”
Nice list of possible adds 2D2, but my bar is a little higher this off-season. I’m not looking for guys like Rick Porcello, or Avisail Garcia to add to this team as I don’t see them as difference makers.
People make a lot of assumptions on this site. One of the most ridiculous is that we won’t sign any Boras clients, or that Boras clients won’t sign extensions. Or, that Friedman won’t pursue top free agents. Let’s remember that one of these types of assumptions was put to bed last year when he spend on a reliever, which most people generalized he would never do.
The other generalization that should be put to bed is the malcontent / bad clubhouse assumption. Some people deserve this type of moniker, good ole Milton Bradley comes to mind. Others deserve second chances, like Ardolis Chapman and perhaps Roberto Ozuna. I think it’s self flattering to think that the Dodgers backed out of the Chapman deal because of his character, when it could be that they backed out of the deal simply because they didn’t know how long he would be suspended for. By the way, Castellanos has a bit of a reputation for being a malcontent when he flat out refused to pick up a first baseman’s glove with the Tigers and constantly complained about the field dimensions robbing him of numbers.
The same goes for our own AJ Pollock. He was injured in the first half, he played injured in the second half and he was cold in the post season. So, he had a mixed year and still wound up with a 795 OPS overall. Avisail Garcia, who seems to also have a very hard time staying on the field, finished with a 796 OPS. Verdugo had a hard time staying on the field finished with a 817 OPS. But some think he’s a savior, but we should pay to get rid of Pollock.
Without over-complicating things, I would like the Dodgers to focus solely on top rung talent, only difference makers please.
If you pick up an outfielder, he better be clearly better than Verdugo / Pollock.
If you pick up an infielder, he better be clearly better than Lux.
If you pick up a reliever, he better have some experience saving games.
If you pick up a starter, he better be clearly better than Gonsolin, May, Urias.
The thing that really drives me crazy is thinking they’re gonna turn everyone into a platoon player, or trade a player one year into a multi-year contract. Both of these things will make it very difficult to sign free agents in the future because guys are NOT going to want to come here, be turned into a platoon player, and have their future value diminished because of it. Likewise, people are NOT going to want to come here and sign a contract, move his family only to be traded the next year and have to move again. The front office know this. They had to assure Pollock that he wouldn’t be platooned in order to get him to sign.
This is NOT a fantasy baseball team, you don’t deal with human emotions when you have a fantasy baseball team. If you sit your fantasy player, he doesn’t start to doubt himself, he doesn’t go cold from sitting, and he doesn’t worry about someone taking his job.
I don’t deny that players deserve second chances. I’m sure that Luke Heimlich would shout that from the roof tops.
My point was, regardless of the reasons, that it was wise of the Dodgers to back out of the Chapman deal.
Beyond what I read on the various baseball sites, I have no inside information on who is, or isn’t a malcontent or a disruptive presence in the clubhouse. Certainly, the Dodgers and those that cover them for the various media outlets, are as tight lipped about that as any team.
Listen, I would love it if the Dodgers acquired every top player available. I would love to trade Kristopher Negron for Jose Altuve. That’s not going to happen. Clearly, who you acquire has to be better than who you have. Also, the finances have to make sense. My point was just to throw out some names and join the discussion. I have to believe that the front office is a lot better at this than I am and they know what they can, and cannot do.
With respect to Roberto Osuna, you apparently did not see pictures of the aftermath of his physical tirade against the mother of his child. They were gruesome and he has never apologized. No thank you for any second chance. I do not care if he wins the CY, I would not want him on my team.
I do not think anyone has said that AF would not sign a Scott Boras client. They did give Ryu a QO and he accepted it. Many believe Ryu will re-sign with LA. The problem many see is that Boras looks for every dime and waits until the last minute to get signed. That leaves only a few teams willing to “play” Boras’ game. Some team will spend stupid money. He did it for Eric Hosmer two years ago, but has not done well with Mike Moustakas, Dallas Keuchel, and arguably missed on JDM. Harper got what he wanted, the highest dollar contract and for a very long term, but signed very late. The Dodgers were never going to give Harper 13 years. They made him an offer with a huge AAV and short term deal, but Harper (Boras) said no. If you think that AF will sign a player to a 13 year $330MM you will be disappointed. Boras is going to want to get Cole a contract in excess of both Scherzer (his client) and David Price. That would seem to indicate that he will start north of 7 years $220MM. Maybe he gets it, maybe not. But that is the starting point and unless anyone meets his starting point, Cole is not going to sign. That is a $31.43MM AAV. The Dodgers can certainly afford that, but AF has never signed that level of a contract. Maybe he will for Cole. AF has never had this flexibility in salaries, so we will need to wait and see.
Rendon has already turned down a 7 year $210MM – $220MM contract with deferred payments paid out within 7 years of contract ending. The Dodgers have shown that they will defer payments, although it is not a common strategy. I know they did it with Scott Kazmir, but I cannot remember anyone else. There undoubtedly is and someone will correct me. Nolan Arenado signed for 8 years $260MM which seems a fair comp for Rendon. Reportedly Rendon wants to sign a shorter term high AAV deal, but I have never heard what is considered shorter term. Is Rendon worth 5 years $200MM? I know it is not your money. How about 5 years at $165MM which is a $33MM AAV and exceeds Arenado’s $32.5MM AAV.
I think it is the deals that Boras proposes that most teams find objectionable, including AF. It is not that they would not sign a Boras client.
I would not expect AJ Pollock to be traded. While his AAV of $12MM is not excessive, his .9 fWAR did not match his contract cost. For 2019, fWAR = $8.11MM in salary. He is going to need to put a 2.06 WAR in 2020 to earn his contract thru 2 years which he is certainly capable of. But he has only had one great year and teams may be put off in thinking he just will not play enough to generate an average of 1.63 WAR over the next four years. You think he will, while others do not. I personally like to think that he would, but there is doubt. He has averaged 2.26 WAR thru his 8 year career.
I haven’t seen any photos. I searched, but couldn’t find any. I found an article with a bunch of quotes from him. If he’s guilty, he sure is a good liar.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/08/29/roberto-osuna-domestic-violence-charge-criticism-statement
Interesting post. Glad you don’t want to blow up a 106 win team. Seriously, who wants to blow up this team? That makes absolutely no sense. None. Get over it and move on. Not going to happen.
No way the Dodgers are going to trade or even consider trading Clayton Kershaw. He’s still an elite, top 10 pitcher. He’s smart, he can figure out the early game issues. I think Clayton does just that. It’s a tweak of two.
Will Ryu return? Maybe, but not on some outlandish deal. That will be an interesting negotiation.
But the Dodgers are still really good, without Ryu, without Cole (although it would be fun to have him and Walker Buehler on the same staff). Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Maeda, Stripling make up a pretty good staff. If that’s the approach, I can see the team bringing back Hill on an incentive heavy deal to fill in innings to keep the young pitchers fresh.
I agree there will be some changes, some trades, some tweaks, maybe a free agent signing or two.
Will the Dodgers pursue Cole or Rendon? In many ways, Rendon, If he doesn’t re-sign with the Nationals, probably makes more sense since the Dodgers have no obvious replacement to Turner at third. Not sure Arte Moreno will go big on a pitcher with high level dollars and a long contract attached, hasn’t been his style. Everything points to the Dodgers being the only California team that can afford him. Can’t see San Diego taking on another massive contract, the Giants are too far away in terms of being a title contender. As someone pointed out, take Hill’s contract and Ryu’s contract, put them together and you can sign Cole. If he remains injury free, that’s a pretty good deal.
Winter will be fun.
My opinion is that the Dodgers need to do three very important things to have a reasonable chance of winning a championship next year. (I am assuming that this is a goal of the organization). These are: 1) Obtain a top starting pitcher, at worst a #2, at best a co-#1 with Buehler. 2) Rebuild the bullpen, obtaining a legitimate closer, a set-up man, and at least one other good reliever. 3) Add one more strong bat to the middle of the lineup, preferably right-handed.
Odds on such things are obviously subjective. I decided that the odds of us getting the top pitcher are about 30%. I don’t see anyone outside of Cole who is available and would fit that description. I am being generous when I give a 30% chance there. All of our last five years belies any optimism that we will suddenly offer a very big contract to a star free agent. As to the bullpen, I would give a 40% probability to us making those moves, again being optimistic. I imagine that we will get someone for the bullpen, but not both the set-up man and the closer. As to the right-handed power bat, that is possible, though we may get another Pollock or less. But I’ll give it as high as a 50% chance. So, by the laws of probabilities, that means a 6% chance that we will do all three things.
Since I think we need all of those, that means our chance of having the best roster in baseball next year is no more than 6%. Oh, we’ll be better than many teams, but do you think we will be better than the Astros or Yankees? If not, then it is at best another season of enjoying wins over NL West teams, trying not to think about the ultimate season results, but knowing that there are at least two teams better than we are, if not more. I don’t think that the roster needs to be “blown up,” but it needs to be significantly improved, particularly considering possible attrition in the offseason. What we have done, while admirable, has not been enough, and it will not be in future, unless the ownership relents on some of its constraints.The ball is in their court. Going into next season with a roster comparable to this last one, will yield fairly similar results. The 106 wins is great, but it is misleading, because our division was so weak. Do you think that if somehow the playoffs started again today, we would win the championship? I certainly don’t. If not, then what is the point of what we are doing, other than making massive profits for the ownership, and giving the fans some pleasant baseball to watch during the Summer months?
The Dodgers are TOP 3 in talent in baseball. It doesn’t take much to upgrade and the Dodgers are in a better position to do that than the other two TOP 3 teams.
6% – I can pull a random number out of my U KNOW WHAT too. There’s a 99.9% chance we have the best roster in baseball if we make NO MOVES AT ALL!
We can easily return the same exact roster Minus Ryu and Martin. Martin is easily replaced by Barnes and Ryu and the 50 innings that Hill gave us can be replaced by Urias, May and Gonsolin with little or no production lost. The Yankees and Astros have a 0% chance of having rosters that were as good as this year without going over the CBT.
😉
The Astros and Yankees have more holes to fill with less options and less salary to do it. The Astros are basically losing MORE THAN half of their pitching staff and two catchers to free agency. The Yankees are losing their SS, DH, Closer, Setup guy and two 800 OPS Outfielders. We are losing basically 1 pitcher (I count Hill and Ryu as one pitcher since one or the other is always on the DL for the last 3 years).
Both of those teams have more money already committed to next year’s roster. And since the Astros have pretty much NEVER spent more that us on payroll, you can safely assume they won’t next year.
Payroll already committed to 2020…
Yankees – $164,628,571
Astros – $148,558,333
Dodgers – $124,791,667
You’re “Our division is weak” is a very poor argument.
Here’s what the total wins per division look like.
NLE NLC NLW ALE ALC ALW
414 408 409 404 372 422
Yes, I think if the playoffs started again today, we would win the championship barring Robert’s mismanagement. If just one thing, Will Smith’s warning track shot, cleared the fence, there’s no doubt in my mind that we beat St. Louis and are playing in the WS. That one thing – the ball he hit, that launch angle and exit velocity, goes out of Dodgers stadium 99% of the time. If we pitched anybody but CK against Rendon and Soto, we win.
I just don’t understand how you see the team so negatively.
As far as our “Needs” go. Comparing our “Needs” to the Astros and Yankees.
The Yankees actually “Need” to replace a starting pitcher, closer, setup guy, SS, DH and an OF just to get to the point they were this year. That’s a lot of REAL needs.
The Astros actually “Need” to replace two starting pitchers, one of them their ACE! Both catchers and a whopping 290 innings worth of bullpen arms!
You added the Dodgers wins to the NLW total. Not one other team in the West had a winning record, and it’s not because we dominated the season series against them.
Here are the teams which have won titles in the last 30 years. Oakland. Cincinnati. Minnesota. Toronto. Toronto again, imagine that. Atlanta. Yankees, Marlins. Yankees. Yankees again. Yankees for the third time in a row. Arizona. The Angels. Florida , their second. Boston. White Sox. Cardinals. Boston.. Philadelphia. Yankees once again. Giants. Cardinals. Giants again. Red Sox. Giants, third time in five years. Kansas City. Cubs. Houston. Boston. Houston again or Washington. That is why I am pessimistic,; that, and the fact that we have refused to sign top free agents, or trade for top players.
Let me know when the Dodgers actually win a world title, and then I will actually believe that they have the best roster. They may have had it in 2017, that’s all. Unless you think that we are losing titles because of the managers. If that is true, the same people who hired Roberts re-signed him last year, and kept him after this season. So if he’s the one costing us the titles, he’s back for more years to do it again, completely nullifying whatever roster you think we have.
I don’t know what the Astros or Yankees might do in the offseason, but this year, they both had better teams.. I suppose we could just sit there and wait for them to lose players, but then the teams which sign them could vault ahead of us. You are right that we potentially have more room, but let’s see if we indeed use it. I remember that minority owner here saying to the LA Times that he was waiting for our payroll to be in the middle of the list.
The last time the Dodgers won the World Title they did not have the best roster.
If the Nats happen to win this year, that blows your idea of the best roster to smithereens.
It does? I have only said that more often that not, the team or teams which have the best rosters win the title. Not almost every time, as in the NBA. That’s what makes baseball special. Give me the best roster going into a season, though, and I’ll feel very good about my chances. The Dodgers started this season without a set bullpen, and ended it the same way. You can buck the odds, and somehow get through, maybe if you have a great manager. But with a manager who plays it pretty much by rote, you need enough talent to make the decisions as easy as possible for him.
As much as I would love to see the Dodgers obtain a front-line starter, my selfish wish is that Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin, or both, step up and become the next Cole, Strasburg or Scherzer. They certainly have the talent to do that. Will they? That’s a decision the Dodgers will have to make.
I agree. But more great starting pitching is better than less great starting pitching. Bueller, Urias, May, Kershaw, Maeda/Gonsolin is very good. Bueller, Cole, Urias, May, Kershaw is much gooder. 😉
Good and interesting article, 2D2, as usual. I do not know for sure who the Dodgers should acquire in the off season via trade, resigning or free agents. I just know that Cole seems like a good option. I just have my own opinion on who should not be traded: Cody, Corey, Clayton and Joc among others.
Why does no one list Max as part of our core?
Let me correct that – – – Max is part of the core!!
I said that two months ago, the Dodgers must sign Cole, that causes a domino effect, the Astros are left with two 36-year-old pitchers, the Yankees would have to sign a decadent Mad Bum, Boston is stuck with Sale and Price, etc.
The Dodgers are going to sign Cole, the money that comes out of Ryu and Hill’s books goes to Cole, Cole replaces Ryu and Urias replaces Hill.
1 Cole
2 Buehler
3 Kershaw
4 Urias
5 Maeda / May (SP in July)
October 2020
1 Buehler
2 Cole
3 urias
4 May
That will be nice if that happens that way Horse, especially if they find room for Rendon, Donaldson, Casty or any other right handed bat that’s capable of 30 homers. Then they can trade spare parts for bullpen pieces.
Donaldson – now there’s a name no one has mentioned up till now. Probably looking for more years than AF would be comfortable with but he’s played both third and first and his bat certainly has something left in it.
2d2, it would be nice if May and/or Gonsolin stepped up and became the next Cole, Strasburg or Scherzer. However, that’s a lot to expect or even hope for given that Cole, Strasburg and Scherzer all took time to develop into the pitchers they currently are. No doubt that our young guys have the ability to become stars, but even if they’re good, even very good, there are likely to be growing pains along the way. Both physical and mental development do not occur overnight. And that’s the reason that I want the Dodgers to make investments in more than one FA pitcher. I’ll go back to what I’ve said, MT has said, and many others have said, you can never have enough pitching. And top of the line pitching requires both experience and maturity (both physical and mental). In fact, top of the line anything (e.g., Rendon, etc.) requires the same. And I’m sure you know that there are no shortcuts.
Horse, unless Kershaw is hurt or simply melts down next year, I have to believe that he would be in any October rotation.
Probably all depends on how well each of those guys pitched during the year and in particular down the stretch. I think we have finally reached the point where CK only starts a playoff game if his production warrants it.
Absolutely!
Gammons:
I didn’t find anyone who didn’t think the Dodgers right now are the best organization in the business, and while the Red Sox may have thought they had a chance at luring Andrew Friedman because his contract was up, they had no chance.
https://theathletic.com/1305139/2019/10/21/gammons-what-the-playoffs-have-told-us-about-the-state-of-starting-pitching-and-development/
The above was about pitching development. Not sure why I can’t edit that in.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have 3 ace starting pitchers in the playoffs next year Buehler, Cole, Strasburg. Then the 4th starter being the one that’s not those 3 who pitched the best during the regular season. Forget Rendon we have some young position players that are still developing. Bellinger in my opinion will show up next year in the playoffs, Verdugo same, Lux same, Smith same, Turner, Muncy, Pederson always show up. I have so much faith in the Dodgers offense, it will get it done next year. Upgrade the pitching.
Is Seager going to stay home during the playoffs?
LOL.
Eric, that’s a whole lot of hope you have there.
Bluto. Everyone wants to be like the Dodgers. Haha. 32 years of hope, no WS rings, 2019 Worst Disappointment Award. Even with every position manned by an AllStar, a team is still not guaranteed a ring. Allstars are human. They have bad days, fights with their wives, indigestion, constipation, worry, and even hemorroids and blisters. And, the 2019 Manager/Buffoon Award on top of all that. Players are not thinking about the Dodgers.
Crack is bad!
Bluto – – That was a nice read! A couple of things stood out: Gemmons quoted one of the most respected analytic front office leaders in the game who said, among other things: “But soon everyone will be trying to have what the Dodgers have.
“I also thought one of the comments to the article summed it all up very well: “Bottom line, good pitching, timely hitting with runners in scoring position. What else matters?”
What else matters?
A manager who doesn’t go bonkers.
I know that several on this board will disagree with me, but I too like 2D2, feel bad for Kershaw. I do not blame him alone for the loss. He caused the score to be tied, but it was still winnable at that point.
Well, I like you and respect you… after all you are DodgerBlueMom, but Clayton cut their hearts out. It’s ALL on him. I love Clayton, but he can’t do that stuff!
If he had come in and slammed the door with 4 outs… GAME OVER!
I feel sorry for him, but it’s all his fault and he will also tell you that.
Still, he’s on my team next year!
Well it is sometimes hard being a mom.
😉
You can’t say he doesn’t help get us there. But, I don’t want to see him come out of the pen again… Or, lined up to pitch twice in the same series if at all possible.
I really believe that he’ll further his transition into being a soft tosser next year. I wish he would get some velocity back. The unjuiced ball next year sure help, but it didn’t help him against Rendon and Soto.
I will guarantee that the Dodgers will not win 106 games next season. Why? Because our division should be stronger with Arizona and San Diego playing a lot better than they did this season. That is also without the Giants and Colorado improving.
Talking about Houston and Yankees not being as good as this year is kind of meaningless if you don’t get to the big show and we need to get through the NL, first. That will be even more difficult next season. Dodgers are good, not great.