In case you have forgotten, the 2019 LA Dodgers are a young team (overall), with a very deep and very god farm system and accomplished the following:
- Most Wins in LA Dodger History – 106
- Best Team ERA in MLB
Yes, it has been 32 years since the Dodgers have won the Worl Series. Yes, 2019 was a bitter pill to swallow. Yes, it is way past time for the Dodgers to win. Yes, I feel your pain. Yes, it’s not as bad as it seems. Yes, don’t blow up the team. Yes, get a grip!
I do agree with AC that it is insanity to keep doing the same thing over and over. But we don’t need to blow things up. 59inaRow took a heavy dose of common sense and wrote this very eloquently:
Why we lost…
Was it hitting with RISP like Mark Suggests? Hell, we outscored the Nats for the series.
Was it because the bullpen wasn’t any good? We had one of the best bullpens down the stretch.
Was it because Doc is an idiot? That idiot managed to win 106 games.
Because Friedman is cheap? Payroll was top 4 just over $200 M.
Was it bad luck?
Joc missed a bases clearing double by inches.
In game 4, the wind knocked down Muncy’s home run for sure. Seager’s oppo field seemed to get held up as well.
I was listening to Eric Stephen’s pod cast regarding Will Smith’s walk off in game 5. Given the launch angle and exit velocity that ball goes out of Dodger Stadium 99 out of 100 times!
No need to blow things up.
Cole or Rendon? I don’t think it has to be either or. When I go to Captain Jacks, I always get Prime Rib and King Crab Legs. They don’t make me choose between the two.
The Red Sox spent about 230 million on payroll last year. We can afford Pribe Rib and King Crab Legs.
Fans only look at recent history. They want to trade for the player that is the “flavor of the week” failing to realize that next week he may not be that player. Andrew Friedman was castigated for failing to gut the farm in order to get Felipe Vasquez. How did that work out? Edwin Diaz was the best reliever in baseball in 2018, but in 2019, he was one of the worst.
Most fans want to trade Kenley Jansen and Joe Kelly which would be very short-sighted. Very few relievers go their entire careers without having down years. Actually, Joe Kelly who was injured (we are still not sure of the extent) had a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP after the All-Star Game. If healthy in 2020, he could be a nice bullpen piece. Who knows – Mark Prior might be able to weave some magic (you just don’t count on it)?
Trevor Hoffman had several down years throughout his 16-year career. In his 17-year career, Lee Smith had a roller-coaster ERA. Even the great Mariano Rivera had one down year in his 19-year career. John Franco, Joe Nathan, Dan Plesac, and Troy Percival all had up-and-down seasons. Will Kenley Jansen bounce back? I don’t know but unlike the aforementioned relievers, Kelly and Jansen had to deal with a “juiced ball.” To trade either player would be short-sighted and just plain dumb! Fans pine for Will Smith, forgetting that he has a 3.55 career ERA. 2020 might or might not be a down year for him.
Yes, the Dodgers should seek to improve the bullpen and the starting pitching… you can never have too much pitching. The Dodgers got out of Luxury Tax Hell and now have re-set the penalty. I have ZERO doubt they will go over the Luxury Tax Threshold if needed. I have been against Dope-Fiend Moves, but going into this offseason, I would put Gerrit Cole squarely in my sights and make the dope-fiend move. One dope-fiend move won’t kill the team. That’s assuming Cole wants to be a Dodger.
I have been on the Nick Castellanos bandwagon for a while now. I look at what a player “can be” not what they are. In Castellanos, I see a very smart player who will likely get better under Robert Van Scyoc and Company and can be an average LF’er. Actually his defense in RF has greatly improved. He helps the Dodgers get more righthanded, as he kills LHP. He hit .370 against LH pitching this year and .272 against RH pitching. That would be a huge asset to this lineup.
Evolve
Revolution is unlikely to work on most players. It’s more like evolution. We saw Cody Bellinger evolve over last season. I think you will see more of that next season as he learns to use the entire field. I have suggested moving him to the #2 spot, due to his speed and possible ability to use the entire field. I see him evolving into more of a Christian Yelich-type hitter. He has shown his ability to evolve and I think the evolution will continue.
I am convinced that Joc Pederson will be traded at the height of his value. I have grown to like Joc more than I used to but he will never hit LHP. EVER! His value will never be higher and the Dodgers need to get more balance. Muncy, Bellinger, and Seager are much more balanced hitters and Joc is just the odd man out. Sell high and move on. There are other players who are likely to be traded: Ross Stripling (his value is high), Austin Barnes (he needs a change of scenery and has little value), Kenta Maeda (who wants to start, and won’t if they get Cole), and AJ Pollock. I have ZERO confidence in Pollock after his total meltdown in the playoffs. For a veteran player to stink it up like that is unbelievable, but he will probably stay.
Kike Hernandez or Chris Taylor could be traded… or not. They are solid pieces off the bench. Hernandez has 2 more years of control and Taylor has 3. That is huge! Both could still be on the team next season. A package of Maeda, Pederson, Barnes, and Stripling (throw in Pollock) could yield Aaron Bummer and prospects (maybe a 3 or 4-way deal). Of course, the Dodgers could re-work Maeda’s contract and let him pitch out of the pen. There’s a lot to be decided, but if the ball is not juiced, Yimi Garcia and Pedro Baez will be much better.
Bullpen Possibilities
- Dennis Santana was pitching very well out of the bullpen late last season.
- Brett de Geus is unhittable in the AFL this fall.
- Marshall Kasowski is a work-in-progress. He’s a guy who could come on strong if he can command his fastball and develop a secondary pitch. Of course, if chickens had lips they would be people.
- Mitch White is transitioning to the bullpen and has looked good at times.
- I think that if Cole is signed, Tony Gnsolin will transition to the bullpen where he can be an “Andrew Miller-Type Pitcher.”
- Josiah Gray is closer than you might think.
- Then there is Michael Grove (fully recovered from TJ), Jesen Therrien (who has not pitched since 2017 after TJ), Jordon Sheffield and Gerardo Carrillo who is displaying a 98 MPH heater in the AFL.
Floro, Alexander, Ferguson, and even Sborz are possibilities. Of course, AF will likely acquire some other BP pieces.
Possible Losses
Andrew Friedman has reported that thirteen (count ’em, 13) other teams have requested to talk with certain Dodger Coaches and Front Office Types. Raul Ibanez has been courted by multiple teams, but Friedman lets him live in Miami and work from there. I think that is the ONLY reason he is not the Dodgers GM. The Dodgers are likely to lose some talent, including Hanselman and Bates. We shall wait and see…
Outstanding MT… Patience is and will be the key for Dodger fans… I celebrated the departure of the old FO and have been very happy with the evolution of the team under Andrew and his crew…
59’s post needed an encore and he hit all the right buttons…
I still believe we have a closer or two in our ranks (last bullet in MT’s BP possibilities) band with our depth a Cole addition is quite possible…
Now lets see if today’s posts can be positive for the most part …
Cant wait to see Verdugo in ST!!!
You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil always has to be lead…
Talk about flavor of the week. I always thought Castellanos was going to be great. My family was originally from Detroit, so we have a lot of extended family there. I was pumping up Castellanos to my cousin, a huge sports fan in general and avid Tigers fan, when he was still in the minors. He was a very highly touted prospect back then. He never really realized that potential. My cousin said he has a brick for a glove and never was too impressed with him.
This year he broke out and had the best year of his career in his age 27 season and ended up with an 863 OPS. His second half ops was 924 as he was traded to a better hitters ballpark from one of the worst. His glovework might have even improved a bit making him passable in the field.
This brings us to Pollock, the guy that people want to “throw in” as a trade piece to get a reliever with one good season. Our AJ Pollock, who had a second half OPS of 885, just 39 points lower than Casty’s 924. Now, lets look a little closer at WAR. Casty’s career WAR is a lousy 7.1 in 3646 career PAs. Pollock’s career WAR is 20.3 in 2849 career PAs. Ouch!
Now, I’m not saying to stay away from Casty because of this. He’s just entering his prime and he looks to be finally realizing his great potential. But, to act like Pollock is trash and he needs to be thrown away, his salary eaten to make room for Casty is just plain silly. That’s even before considering salary. At a little less than 14 M per year Pollock is not a rip off. How much do you think Casty is going to cost?
I feel bad for Pollock. I always liked him with the D-Backs. I am willing to keep him for another year and excited to see what he can do now that he’s healthy. Without the groin injury and elbow injury, he can probably still handle CF if needed and I don’t see much more risk in terms of being healthy next year than I see with Verdugo’s back and oblique injuries.
I wouldn’t mind adding Casty, but I would rather add Rendon. I would take either one. I would plan on Verdugo being a 4th outfielder if we add Casty and give Lux another year down on the farm if we add Rendon. But, at some point, we’ll need to deal a lefty bat or two.
Getting rid of Pollock’s righty bat to add Casty’s doesn’t solve the problem, it just changes it. You wind up with the same number of righties in the lienup sacrificing defense for a little more offense.
MT, I really like all those arms down on the farm. Especially the ones that helped out this year. May was pretty lights out as a reliever once he got comfortable. He owned everyone while using just two pitches out of the pen. He sure looks like he has Ace potential. Gonsolin dealt with some injuries this year and only pitched 80 innings combined, mostly as a starter. He didn’t have the heat that I expected, even when I saw him in Spring Training, but we very effective none the less.
I think that the losses of Ryu and Hill will be offset with Urias, May and Gonsolin. But, adding Cole to the rotation would be a game changer kind of move and will allow us to trade one of these guys especially with Gray coming on strong. Some of those bullpen arms are going to contribute next year. Last year, they weren’t quite ready. As with adding Cole to the rotation, adding a reliable piece to the pen would have the same effect, pushing everyone down a spot. I’m just hoping that this is the year they go BOLD in free agency. They have the cash, they have the CBT space especially after trading away spare parts. If they fail us this offseason, I will never look at Friedman the same way again.
Trey Turner played one year in CF for the Nats until they could free up the shortstop position for him. Maybe the Dodgers could do the same with Lux. That would allow them to offer Renden $45M per year for three years and move Turner to first and Muncy to second.
Bellinger would play RF and LF would be a competition between Pollock, Pederson, and Verdugo with the first two being a platoon. If one or two of them were to be traded, the decision will have to include in the equation who would get the player they want from the other team.
We need two to three aces or power starters to compete in the playoffs against the better teams. Right now the Dodgers have one ace in Buehler and untested pitchers in Urias,May and Ginsolin. That’s why the Dodgers need to sign one of the three ,Cole,Strasburg if he opts out and Wheeler. We should sign lefty reliever Smith to work in conjunction with Jansen to close games. Trade pieces are Pederson,Stripling Barnes ,and CT3 or Hernandez to acquire a right hand bat.Let Hill and Ryu walk. Ryu had the year of his life and Hill is too injury prone. Lots of work to do for AF and the front office. Need some new talented faces to move foward to a World Championship. The fans are tired of hearing about salary cap restrictions. Open up the wallet and get it done. There really should be no excuses. Think about the revenue they lost by getting eliminated in the their first round of the playoffs by not having the right playoff roster to compete.
Mark, you say the Dodgers are a young team overall, but they were (average age) the fifth oldest team in baseball last year. Not only that but all six of the oldest teams (average age) made the playoffs. We will almost definitely be younger next year because we will probably be subtracting Freese and Martin and possibly Ryu and Hill, but maybe older isn’t such a bad thing after all.
If baseball goes back to the baseballs that were used before last year, that will almost certainly lead to fewer homers. Some of our pitchers with the most problems last year were homer-prone and, as was mentioned, this might make a real difference to them (Kershaw, Jansen, Yimi, Baez).
You say you’ve totally lost confidence in Pollock after his post season meltdown. You’re basing that on 13 at bats. I don’t see you proposing to trade Seager or Bellinger who were barely better. If you want to use Pollock’s entire season results as a reason to get rid of him, ok, but to base your decision on 13 at bats doesn’t make any sense to me.
I would be astonished to see us wind up with Cole. Way too much risk in a pitcher’s arm going bad for AF to go down that road, coupled with the fact that the Angels and Yankees will be absolutely desperate to sign him and will outbid us because, although we’d like to have him, we’re not as desperate as they are.
I’m convinced that we will have a top flight right handed bat arrive this winter. Rendon, Mookie, Casty or someone we haven’t even thought of. That will coincide with Joc’s being traded. My predictions, and, in answer to your next question, yes I’ve been wrong before.
I was shocked when Dodgers signed Pollock considering his injury history, declining defensive skills, and the substantial difference in his home and away hitting metrics. I hope Dodgers can find a way to trade him
Very good column, Mark, but I can’t see the Dodgers going for both Anthony Rendon and Gerrit Cole. After the illustrious reign of Frank McCourt they did go all-in, signing Zack Greinke and then going a little crazy with Nick Punto deal just to get a first baseman since none were going to be available on the free agent market in the near future. Yes, fans were off the rails angry and the new ownership group recognized that they needed to do something big to say things have changed, a new day has arrived. The Dodgers are now coming off a 106 win season, seven NL West titles in a row, nearly four million through the gates, record revenues. McCourt resides only in the parking lot.
So, the fans are angry again, but not McCourt angry. The product on the field is successful and they made two of the last three World Series, but are still looking for a title, 32 years and counting. Pretty easy to see loyal Dodgers fans are tired of waiting, no more excuses.
The core is young, 26 of the players on the roster are 29 or younger. The minors continues to produce MLB ready players and now they have a whole lot of financial flexibility, $45 to $47 million, depending on who is counting. They can swing a trade or two, create even more flexibility, all without going over the cap.
But will they? My guess is yes. But they also will have two big contracts in the future, Cody Bellinger and Cory Seager, plus Friedman likes financial flexibility, part of his opportunistic approach. They love to use money to acquire talent lowering the prospect cost.
The Dodgers have never been in this position before. Friedman noted that in his press conference.
How will he and the Dodgers react? All last winter, he strongly suggested that the Dodgers would be in a great place to pursue free agents in 2020. Lot of financial flexibility.
Maybe Mark is right and they’ll go for the prime rib and crab legs. Or maybe they will be far more measured and seek one, using the trade market or lesser free agents to fill the other needs. Hey, I’d love it if they went all in and acquired both Cole and Rendon.
Definitely going to be an interesting winter.
What is it going to cost to sign Castellanos? $$$, not prospects. Perhaps Mark is right and adding his RHB might tip the batters in the right direction. Pederson is never going to play against LHP.
Too much risk in signing Cole? WTF? As risky as giving Kershaw a 3 year extension and the same with Kenley? They were already known risks that the FO gambled on. Not saying Kershaw is a bad pitcher. The problem I see is that the FO won’t make a serious bid for Cole as that is not their blueprint. I see getting a RHB before I see them spending for Cole. Maybe I’m wrong and they will change. Not sure at all. I wouldn’t mind Mookie, either. Does anyone here see them using Urias, May, & Gonsolin as starters to fill out the rotation? That would seem like a long shot to me. They do need another starter but I would think a lower priced arm is more to their taste.
More risky than giving CK a three year extension. Cole will get at least 7 years. Also, they probably would never have signed Kershaw last year on the open market. He was only signed because he was a Dodger icon.
Agree with your point about the hesitation in using Urias, May and Gonsolin as three of there starters. That’s putting too much on three young guys who don’t have a lot of major or minor league innings under their belts. Although I don’t see them going after Cole, there may be someone coming in a trade that we haven’t even thought of.
Singing The Blue…Right On!!! CK deserves his spot and s/b a Dodger for life…
Urias is ready to step into the rotation.
Odds are between May, Gonsolin and Gray, at least one is ready.
My money is with Gonsolin… Why you ask… I have no idea other than his presence on the mound and attitude…
1 – I don’t think that anyone espouses blowing up the core, but changes have to be made and it takes something good to get something good in trade unless you are talking about signing free agents, and the Braintrust doesn’t like handing out what our host refers to as “dope fiend” contracts.
Remember the ’63 Dodgers? You could make the argument that they were the best Dodger team in the LA era, but they traded their best HR hitter (Frank Howard) for a number 3 starter (Claude Osteen) when they saw the need to replace Johnny Podres and they realized that pitching would make them dominant.
So – other then guys with 1 year of control, is there someone on the roster that would get them what they need, and what do they need?
2 – The Dodgers won’t resign Ryu. He’s going to be 33, will be looking to cash in on 1 big payday so will be looking for 5 years. I hope that management has learned its lesson on signing pitchers with big injury histories (Anderson, Kazmir, McCarthy). The Dodgers have gotten the best of what Ryu had left. Let him walk. Resigning Hill would be a purely emotional decision. He going t bee 40 and just came off of a season where he pitched 58 innings.
This leaves them with 3 starters (Buehler, Kershaw and Maeda) and the 3 kids. Notwithstanding Mark’s comment, since Urias only managed 8 starts and 79 innings, there’s no way he’s going to pitch 180 innings next year. I would argue that the Dodgers did a really bad job posturing Urias for a full-time workload this year. May pitched 140 innings last season between AA, AAA and MLB; Gonsolin threw 81 innings so he’s not ready for a full load either.
So I think that they do need to add an SP next year. MLB Trade Rumors notes that Cole is a Scott Boras client and compares his age and production to the pitchers who have gotten the biggest contracts in baseball history. I assume he will command a 6 to 7 year contract and make over $200MM. I don’t see the Braintrust doing this.Steven Strasburg will probably opt out but he has been more injury prone and is a little older, so he won’t be as expensive but is riskier. I like Zack Wheeler but he has a significant injury history too. Will the Dodgers sign a free agent or trade for someone that we haven’t thought of?
3 – The Dodgers’ ‘pen was unreliable all season. Jansen is no longer a dominant closer. Kelly had a typical Kelly season – 2 horrible months, really good (in mostly low leverage situations) for 2 months, OK for a month, and mostly unavailable at the end of the season. He has, at his best, always been thus and it is folly to think that he will suddenly, at age 31 and 9 seasons in MLB, ever be anything different.
The Dodgers’s best reliever last season using almost any metric was Pedro Baez. When El Gasolino is your best reliever, you have a problem.
Put another way, the Dodgers’ ‘pen totaled 1.2 WAR for the season last year. They were 2nd worst in MLB in inherited runners scored (only Washington was worse – the Dodgers tied with the Orioles, for heaven’s sake) and tied for 3rd (with the Nats) in blown saves. The bullpen has to be better next season.
4 – The Dodgers are still too left-handed. (Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Muncy, Lux, Verdugo, Beatty) Pollock was good for 2 months but as others have observed, his defensive performance has declined and he has been very injury prone and has therefore only had 1 great season. They need another RH bat.
Rendon is rumored to be looking for a shorter contract as he has indicated that he is planning on retiring in his mid-30s. Turner’s defensive metrics have also deteriorated. Rendon might thus make sense.
Mark loves Castellanos, who has had 2 great months in Chicago but has otherwise been mediocre and was considered a disappointment in Detroit, since he was a 1st round draft choice. He has collected -10.2 dWAR in 7 seasons, including -.7 dWAR last year.
Other RH free agents include Jose Abreu (31 and can’t field either), Josh Donaldson (34 and injury prone), JD Martinez (if he opts out but he’s not a glove), Marcell Ozuna (a disappointment with StL and not a good glove) – not a great selection out there. Is a trade more likely than a FA signing?
And to become more RH, which of the LHH gets traded to make room?
Doubt Strasberg opts out. He signed a team friendly deal, against Boras’s wishes, because he felt the Nats treated him properly when he had TJ surgery. Guess time will tell.
With the three batter minimum coming into play next year, it will be critical for the Dodgers to get enough RH batters so that the lineup can flip flop L/R.
The Dodgers traded Howard for Osteen after the 1964 season. At the time, they wanted to get Wes Parker into the lineup as a regular and thought Ron Fairly could be the right fielder. The Dodgers also had 3 young pitchers at the time, Mike Kekich, Bill Singer and hard throwing John Purdin, who they were banking on to fill rotation spots, much like we’re presently counting on May, Gonsolin and Urias now. Unfortunately, other than Singer, they did not live up to their minor league promise, so the need for Osteen.
On Monday I’m going to look at some under the radar trade candidates.
Thanks for that blast from the past 2d2. I remember how excited we were about Purdin. Too bad it never happened for him. And, of course, Kekich’s claim to fame was that he traded wives with one of his Yankee teammates after he wound up in NY. Ah, the good ol’ days.
Looking forward to your under the radar trade candidates. Who needs the WS when we can talk about roster reconstruction. 🙂
A trade that didn’t work out well for Kekich. Fritz Peterson and the wife and family he “acquired” in trade from Kekich are still married. Kekich and his new family split after a couple of years. Totally bizarre!
Life mirrors baseball, or vice versa. Some trades work out and some don’t.
“You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil always has to be lead…” – peterj
Sorry peter, but that’s not actually true. Turns out that a pencil is not lead at all, but a mixture of clay and graphite. 🙂
http://discovermagazine.com/2007/may/20-things-you-didnt-know-about-pencils?thislinkwasusedbefore
As a believer in Darwin’s Theory of Evolution, I also believe that players and people in general, evolve over time.
Mark, I’m not going to break down your post point for point, since for the most part I agree with it.
I don’t consider that Pollock is hopeless, and can see where he could still be a valuable piece. I’d have no problem if the Dodgers traded him, but only if he brought back something of value in return. What that could be, I don’t have a clue. It could just be money, and I’ll let the Dodgers determine how much would be enough.
I don’t know if Kenley can no longer be a reliable closer, or if Joe Kelly cannot be counted upon. Maybe they both learned valuable lessons in 2019, and maybe not. The Dodgers brass knows a lot more than any of us, so I’ll just have to keep the faith that they know what they’re doing. What I do know, is that whatever they know, good or bad, they’re not going to broadcast it to the world.
I’m all for signing Cole and even signing or trading for another starter, because as you said Mark, you can never have enough pitching. And though one or more of our young pitchers may step up, we can’t be sure that’s the case. And I am not certain where Urias, May, and/or Gonsolin will end up. They are all potential starters, and no doubt that they could all be valuable pieces in the pen. Only evolution over time will determine how that ends up. And also, it wouldn’t hurt to bolster the pitching staff with one or more capable veteran additions to provide support for our younger pitchers as they gradually work their way into more prominent roles.
I definitely would like to have Rendon, because he provides a much needed impact bat from the right side, and solid defense at 3B. His presence would also allow JT to move over to 1B where he may be better suited to play given that his defense at 3B has begun to show some slippage. And he likely needs more time off to maintain the level of excellence that we’ve grown accustomed to. Also, Rendon himself also can be useful at 1B, if necessary.
I don’t know enough about Castellanos to offer a full endorsement, but haven’t seen or heard anything to doubt that he would likely be a worthy addition. And since he doesn’t require the loss of a draft pick, it is, after all, just money.
I am already on record as being in favor of trading Joc, and could easily see Kike’, Taylor and Stripling being a part of deals/packages that could bring useful returns, and open spots for some of our young, developing farmhands. And I suspect, that some of the many rookies from 2019 will benefit from the time they spent with the Dodgers, and the post-season experience they gained. And I’m still hoping that Bellinger begins to make use of more of the field, and maybe learns to cut down on his swing. He will only turn 25 next July, and I doubt that he is through learning. I am confident that he will continue to grow gradually, both physically and mentally.
I feel similarly about Cory Seager, who I still believe is the best hitter the Dodgers have. I’m still hopeful that he will blossom given a full off-season in which he can participate in regular, non-rehab workouts. And Seager too is young, as he will only turn 26 this coming April.
We tend to let our disappointments cloud our judgment. I prefer to keep my glass half-full and hope for continued progress from what is essentially a young team that I am confident will learn from its travails. And yes, I could be completely wrong. But that wouldn’t be the first time. And it wouldn’t be the first time that my confidence was justified.
May Andy with Kris’ help win the state championship in year one of their new career.
I LOVE the Dodgers, and despite what Mark says about hate (which I agree with), I HATE the Yankees. So other than a Dodgers walk-off, nothing could have made me happier than to see Jose Altuve walk-off the Astros and send the Yankees home. And add to that, that I know a totally disagreeable Yankee fan (who would be equally disagreeable if he was a Dodgers fan) who would have done everything he could to annoy me if the Yankees went on to win the WS.
Probably would prefer to see the Nats win the Series, but really it doesn’t matter to me.
I love baseball.
I’m a big Red Sox fan and on one of their forums after game 1 in the ALCS some fans (just a few) were talking about how much they admired Cashman.
Now the tide turns after 6 games. The new perspective:
1. Yankees haven’t won an ALCS in 4 straight times.
2. He still hasn’t fixed the starting rotation.
3. Sanchez is over-rated at C.
4. Gleyor Torres needs to mature.
5. DJLM is due to regress.
6. Tananka isn’t a top pitcher.
7. Chapman and Betances are FA
8. Stanton’s contract is already an albatross