Who is your favorite minor league player in the Dodger pipeline? I suppose we shouldn’t have favorites as every player has the same goal and is doing all he can to reach the highest level he can, hopefully, MLB. I have a lot of players I follow but I expect my number one favorite is Zach McKinstry. I also expect my perception of Zach is out of the mainstream and has been strongly influenced with his arrival in Great Lakes in the summer of 2016. He was a surprise arrival and did not set the world on fire but played a pivotal role in the Loons unlikely 2016 league championship run. The absolute highlight of that year was the grand slam by Omar Estevez on August 11 against the Lake County Captains. The Loons had gone into the bottom of the ninth inning down 10-4 and in extra-innings emerged with an 11-10 victory. From then on there was no stopping the Great Lakes squad.
McKinstry, a second baseman/shortstop seemed to solidify the infield following his promotion to the Loons on July 21, 2016 moving to an unfamiliar third base in an infield that featured two teenagers – Omar Estevez and Brendan Davis. He was the unheralded guy who made the play or got the hit. I have outlined his early baseball life on LADT before so will skip ahead to the present with just a bit of his history. He was selected by the Dodgers in the 33rd round of the 2016 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Central Michigan University in Mount Pleasant, Michigan.
Following his 2016 season, he had a bit of a down year in 2017 compounded by a wrist injury lifting weights in the offseason. He again started the 2018 season back in Great Lakes which I expect was below his expectations but after 18 games he was promoted to Rancho Cucamonga. Following a successful 33 games with the Quakes, he moved on to Tulsa where he found the sledding a little tough.
We are all pretty much familiar with the current season for the Fort Wayne native. The 24-year-old McKinstry has posted a .300/.365/.516 triple slash with 75 RBI over two levels – AA and AAA. In 235 minor league games prior to this season, he had 11 home runs. This year he has 19 in 121 games ( Tulsa 12, OKC 7).
2Demeter2 has indicated he is planning to write an article on player development. Can’t wait to read it. Zach McKinstry might just be the poster boy for player development. His has been a work in progress and progress he has made in a lockstep fashion. That progress is a testament to his work ethic and confidence in himself and to the player development program of the Dodgers. His batting average at each level improved significantly the second time around.
2016 Great Lakes -.261(41 games)
2017 Great Lakes – .308 (17 games)
2017 Rancho Cucamonga – .226 (82 games)
2018 Rancho Cucamonga – .308 (33 games)
2018 Tulsa – .193 (25 games)
2019 Tulsa – .279 (95 games)
2019 OKC – .382 (26 games)
It would a bit unrealistic to expect Zach McKinstry to continue to hit .382 at the AAA level. That would be in Gavin Lux territory. However, it is realistic in my opinion, to expect him to continue to be a productive offensive player with the tools to make it to MLB. It may not be with the Dodgers and may not be as a full-time player but I wouldn’t put the full-time part past him. He is a determined young man grateful for the opportunity he has been given. Exactly 1000 players were selected in the draft before him in 2016. How is it that the 1001st selection has found success at the AA and AAA level before many of his fellow draftees?
How is it that the left-handed hitting, right-handed throwing infielder had a 6-RBI game with the OKC Dodgers with two 3-run homers on August 9th? To his recollection he had never had a 2-home run game before in his career, professional or otherwise. His explanation was simple.
“I’ve hit the ball hard all year. Things are just falling right now. You know how baseball goes. I’m hitting it hard and good things are happening for me.”
Beyond that, he attributes his success, and especially his power surge, to two influences in his professional career. First, he acknowledged the player development program of the Dodgers. One would expect that the influence of the Dodgers hitting coach, Robert Van Scoyoc, has filtered down through the system and McKinstry has bought into the approach. He doesn’t talk specifically about that but credits the development program with giving him the tools to compete at each level as he advances through the system.
“[The Dodgers] give me all the tools to perform every day,” he said. “There’s great coaches here in OKC and throughout the organization. I love playing for the Dodgers. They’ve given a guy from a lower-level college a chance in the 33rd round and pushed me through the system.”
Secondly, McKinstry wanted to change his offseason routine and did so by deviating away from the usual winter conditioning program. He chose CrossFit and it seems it was a good choice. McKinstry stayed with the program until about two weeks before spring training.
Very briefly, a one-line description of CrossFit indicates it is high intensity with a tough workout pushing the participant to the limit and stresses core development which is so important for an athlete.
“Started by a former gymnast and gymnastics coach, CrossFit lets you pick from different “workouts of the day,” or WOD. You might run, row, or climb ropes and do lunges, squats, and other moves.”
I don’t know if the workout program was approved by the Dodgers but the results were evident when he reported to spring training. McKinstry especially liked the running part of the program.
“You could tell in spring training that he’d added some strength and some bulk,” Tulsa manager Scott Hennessey said. “I’d say, I don’t know the exact number, but 10-15 pounds. Definitely stronger than he was last year physically. The ball’s coming off his bat much better. I think that he realizes now that he can do this. He has the confidence to do this and play this game at a high level for a very long time. The sky’s the limit.”
Hennessey saw McKinstry battling pitchers more this season than last, fouling off pitches he might not have in 2018. These battles have made opposing pitchers make more mistakes in the zone, which McKinstry has pounced on. His manager added that his 12 homers could easily be 20 were it not for the wind at OneOk Field, the Drillers’ home field in downtown Tulsa, not usually blowing in.
Unfortunately, the OKC Dodgers did not make the playoffs so Zach McKinstry will have to wait until the 2020 season begins to test his tools again at the AAA level looking for a call-up to the Dodgers at some point in the season. His route to the Dodgers looks a bit blocked so maybe he becomes a Rule 5 candidate in 2020.
DC’s 10th Inning
Tuesday’s Score:
Ogden Raptors 12 – Orem Owlz (LAA) 0
Nineteen-year-old Antonio Hernandez pitched 5 shutout innings on 2 hits with no walks and 7 strikeouts. Relievers Adolfo Ramirez, Drew Finley, Jeisson Cabrera and Jcob Cantleberry each spun a scoreless inning.
Eighteen-year-old Jorbit Vivas (2B) went 4/4 and outfielder Ismael Alcantara went 3/4. Each had 4 RBI. With the 12-0 home win over the Owlz, the Raptors won their 51st game and are the first Pioneer League team since 2009 to get to the half-century win mark.
Outfielder Andy Pages and pitchers Jeronimo Castro and Alfredo Tavarez were selected as postseason all-stars.
Pages – .287/.391/.610, 16 HR, 50 RBI in 50 games
Castro – 3.41 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 66 IP, 68 K, 13 BB
Tavarez – 3.79 ERA,1.22 WHIP, 61.2 IP, 63 K, 25 BB
The Raptors finish out their regular season with 4 more games against the Owlz and meet the Grand Junction Rockies in the first round of the playoffs on Sunday.
Minor League Play-off Games Today:
Great Lakes Loons at Lake County Captains (Cleveland)
The Loons finished the season at 81-55 and the best winning percentage in the Midwest League.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes at Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego)
The Quakes at 81-57 complete the regular season with the second-highest win total in franchise history.
Tulsa Drillers at Arkansas travelers (Seattle)
The Drillers finished the regular season with a 78-61 record. The 78 regular-season wins marked the most in franchise history, matching the 1998 Drillers Texas League Championship squad. The Travelers are the only team in the league that Tulsa does not have a winning record against this year finishing with a 9-21 mark against Arkansas.
BA is out with their new TOP 100 Prospects:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email
Gavin Lux – #6
Dustin May – #18
Will Smith – #42
Keibert Ruiz – #48
Tony Gnsolin – #98
4 In the Top 50! WoW!
In Rancho Cucamonga. I love this place! But, I am working my rear-end off! Hopefully, we can get to a game. 100 freaking degrees – this is no joke.
Morning Mark – hope you find time for a trip to Chavez Ravine.
It’s a shame MJ is n longer with us, as Rancho is where she lived.
Sure she would’ve liked to say hello.
Pleased for Russ Martin, he’s crushed a couple lately.
JT nearing 30 HRs – we have some serious power.
Hey there – it’s 100 degrees but at least it’s dry heat!! No Indiana humidity to worry about. If you can make time to get to LoanMart Field to watch a game, it is well worth the effort.
It’s a dry heat, but so’s my oven …
I bet it’s scorching out there. Drink a ton of water, my guess is you live by those words. Hang in there!
Freaking weather.com says it’s not supposed to be that humid today, but the morning news says otherwise. Go figure.
Nice list, they’re gonna have to start referring to the Dodgers farm as “The Baseball Factory” the way we’re churning out major leaguers.
Nice article on Zach McKinstry, DC! Maybe you can follow it up with one the other Zach, Recks! It’s weird how we latch on to players in the minors, and I certainly latched onto Recks. As I did with Garlick and Rios and to some extent Beaty.
I’m wondering how long before Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas start hitting the top prospect lists. They’re certainly going to be on there shortly due to their age and production so far.
Lived in Rancho for 31 years. I just recently moved to Upland…It is definitely hot! Mark I know you liked El Torito in Rancho but it is closed however there is one in North Ontario by the airport….I have enjoyed your blog for 15 years….Thank you…
I have been there.
Thanks for your support.
Alex Verdugo had a rehab assignment game with the Raptors on Monday but did not play last night.
Jacob Cantleberry has pitched 25.1 innings combined at the AZL Dodgers Mota and Ogden. He had given up four runs (three earned) and 12 hits. He has 34 strikeouts and eight walks.
Hopefully Verdugo did not have a setback. Used as a DH, walked twice and flew out to LF, then replaced in the fifth inning.
McKinstry is also one of my favorites, I love the diamonds-in-the-rough. I enjoyed following Matt Beaty’s journey through the minors, and currently I am pulling for Zach Reks (a wonderful story of persistence from Air Force Academy, to University of Kentucky where he failed to make the team as a walk on, taking a job at a Toyota plant and working out, finally making the U of K baseball team and becoming a star).
Like SoCalBum, I too like Zach Reks. He has “grinder” written all over him. My kind f player. I also like Devan Mann and Deacon Liput. I think next year will be big years for them as they move up the organizational ladder.
Ditto on Devin Mann; I think he has the right stuff, and batting from the right side is to his advantage in the Dodgers system. A big year in Tulsa next season, followed by the AZ Fall League could put him on the right path to be Turner’s replacement at third base in 2021. I also like the catcher Hunter Feduccia who I was able to watch several times last spring training — very nice line drive hitter from gap to gap, and appears to be a very good defensive catcher
In case you missed them these were posts on Mann and Liput.
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/07/03/the-mann-of-the-hour/
https://ladodgertalk.com/2018/12/01/deacon-liput-catalyst/
In case you missed them these were posts on Mann and Liput.
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/07/03/the-mann-of-the-hour/
https://ladodgertalk.com/2018/12/01/deacon-liput-catalyst/
It will be really interesting to see the roster decisions with regard to pitchers for the playoffs. Not necessarily who makes the roster, but what the sequence will be. Right now, I don’t even know what Roberts is trying to do, though I’m sure he has some rationale. Yesterday, after we got the lead, he used Sadler in the 8th, who gave up two hits, and got the last out on a deep fly to center. Then he used Jansen in the 9th, who gave up a walk and a double, but then got the last two outs. Roberts pointed out that “he made some good pitches,” and that “he got the save.” The save rules are too liberal, but that’s another matter. Anyway, I assume that Jansen is still the closer, Kelly can only pitch one inning a few days apart, Baez is significant in there somewhere, and then it is a grab bag among Ferguson, Floro, Garcia, and I guess Urias, as I am assuming that Gonsolin is the fourth starter in the playoffs. And then there’s Maeda and possibly, hopefully, Hill.
It seems to me that we always go into the playoffs with an amorphous bullpen. I don’t know that any of us can effectively predict who goes in before Jansen, at least in which order. Jansen is obviously the crucial element, and going into the playoffs, he is one of the most iffy closers on any of the teams, despite the padded save numbers. Obviously, you need a strong closer to finish games, because we don’t have Koufax to pitch nine innings of shutout ball. Those last three outs in close games have been excruciating to try to get, for much of the season, and it will not get easier n the playoffs. I wonder if any of our current relievers will come up big in the playoffs. Ferguson looks better of late. Baez as well, and then Kelly, though he doesn’t get in many high-leverage situations. Sadler gives up a lot of hard-hit balls. Garcia is a homerun machine. Floro throws hard, sometimes too straight. And the only lefthanders we’ve got are Kolarek, Ferguson, and then Urias, assuming he pitches somewhere in the bullpen rotation, but he’s not capable of pitching more than once every couple of days at the most. It is going to be a somewhat vertiginous ride with our pitching staff in these playoffs, as it has been in the last two World Series. Those last three innings of every game are going to be a real challenge. You just cannot afford to give up the lead and lose in any game of a short playoff series.
Wow, people sure see things differently.
We’ll start with Kelly, whom you’re completely wrong about. Kelly has pitched close to half his games since the beginning of July in above average leverage. He also pitched in back to back games 4 times in July and twice in August.
Let’s talk about the lefties in the pen now. Kolarek seems to be taking to the lefty specialist role and Ferguson is starting to look like himself and can pitch against righties and lefties. It’s pretty standard to have this configuration with 2 lefties in an MLB bullpen. Urias can make a 3rd lefty and Hill can make a 4th. This won’t happen because you almost never see 4 lefties in a pen.
Jensen is obviously a concern since hardly a day goes by without someone writing about his struggles. I don’t think that Doc and AF subscribe to set roles by inning, preferring to use their best non-closer to face the meat of the lineup late and with a lead. Add in the fact that this next month is a tryout of the post-season and amorphous will be the norm. I’m not sure I like it, but it is what it is. Part is by design because they want to use their best relievers to face the best opposing hitters.
If you describe the best pitching staff in baseball as vertiginous, I wonder what words other fans use to describe their comparably crappier pitching staffs.
Sure, it’s easy to complain because Jansen had another so-so outing. But, in the grand scheme of things the pen came though by allowing just 2 runs over six innings, to a very good Rockies lineup. That’s pretty damn good in my book and that’s without using Baez or Kelly. Not bad indeed.
I know that Kelly pitched some back to back games earlier, but as you note, only twice in August. GIven that the Dodgers almost alway s use their bullpen for three innings a game, this seems rather unusual, since Kelly is one of the better relievers we have right now. I see all sorts of teams use relievers two or even three games in a row. I watched Oakland beat the Yankees in three straight games, and I think I saw at least two of their relievers pitch all three of those. Not ideal, but teams do it. I don’t think Kelly is hurt, but it seems that someone in management doesn’t want to use him too often. And he did pitch the sixth inning twice in the last couple of weeks, which I thought was strange.
I do hope we do not go into the playoffs with all this up in the air. We would benefit from having a pretty stable late inning reliever rotation. I suppose we will use the next couple of weeks to decide this, which is rather late in the season to do it.
Dodgers Bullpen Usage
Baez 63 Games / 61 innings
Garcia 56 / 57
Jansen 53 / 53
Kelly 49 / 47
Floro 41 / 40
Ferguson 37 / 37
Looks like he’s right in the middle as far as usage goes. Only 6 innings behind Kenley and only 10 innings behind Garcia.
Perception is an odd thing. No one complains about Baez anymore, but everyone is complaining about Yimi. You look at their numbers and they’re almost the same. Go figure.
One more thing to consider. The air is colder in late October. Yimi could be a weapon without all those homers.
59, interesting theory here. Do we know for sure that Yimi’s slider, or whatever it is he seems to hang up there for his regular home run allowed, will slide harder in the cold?
I wonder if there are stats that show Yimi is better in the cold, or at night vs the day, etc ? I would think that would be something our genius front office would definitely be aware of.
But if you’re right, then yes, perhaps he’d be more dynamic come October in Chicago or DC or Atl or NY as opposed to in this ridic heat wave out here
All the minor leaguers are my favorites. But, if I had to name a few, they would be pitchers, Ryan Moseley, Jeff Belge, and Aaron Ochsenbein (thanks to 2D2). I also Iike Zach Reks and DJ Peters. Thanks for the good information DC.
As per Futuredodgers:
Dodgers with a big IFA signing yesterday, nabbing Nicaraguan RHP Lesther Medrano for $475k. He’s 6’3”, 16 years old. Medrano had reportedly been linked to both the Tigers and Rangers earlier this summer.
FanGraphs on Lux:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-gavin-lux/
FanGraphs has this Dodgers nugget in a quick look at AFL rosters:
Dodgers righty Marshall Kasowski has long posted strong strikeout rates, but the eyeball scouts think he’s on the 40-man fringe.
From Gurnick:
Kyle Garlick and Edwin Rios will not get called up.
From Longenhagen on Lux and Sborz:
Lux was ranked 23rd on our preseason overall prospect list and is currently ranked 9th. Josh Herzenberg wrote his call-up piece here, if you want to go deep on Lux’s background. I’ll be watching him throw this month. His arm has been of concern to scouts for a little while now, starting around the same time his offensive profile started to shift. I put a 40 on his arm during Fututes Game in & out. He clearly doesn’t throw with exceptional zip, but he hasn’t constantly short-hopped first base in a problematic way, either. It’s probably not a long-term issue — this is a big offensive talent who will play somewhere up the middle, in all likelihood — but it might cost the Dodgers an out once in a while.
Sborz projects as a middle reliever whose short-term roster flexibility will likely see him shuttled back and forth from LA to Triple-A next season. Urias, back from a 20-game domestic violence suspension, seems like a candidate to piggyback with Kenta Maeda or one of the other staff righties with starting experience.
Ferguson is starting to look like he belongs. He is getting his curve over and using it more.
Garcia is playing himself off the play off roster. He just gives up one run an inning. Not good.
Jansen is our closer, but scares me. It looks like he has lost a couple MPH off of his pitches and he has not adjusted. He is trying to regain that speed and consequently lost command. Last night he was completely on the other side of the plate from his target. This cannot continue. I just hope we have more than a 2 run lead for him to close. He did get the final out with a slider.
DC, as you may recall, we had quite a conversation going in that 2016 Great Lakes Championship run. I remember discussing extensively about Caleb Ferguson, Leo Crawford, and the three-headed relief specialists, Dean Kremer/Shea Spitzbarth/Andrew Istler. I also remember that OFs Saige Jenco and Logan Landon had good playoffs. Jenco is now out of baseball, while Logan is still in the Dodgers organization, currently assigned to Tulsa.
Leo Crawford was the designated #2 pitcher following Walker Buehler in his 2.0 to 3.0 IP starts, and Leo was almost unhittable. Lest anyone forgets, other pitchers on those playoff rosters included, Dennis Santana, Tony Gonsolin, Jordan Sheffield, Yadi Alvarez, and Victor Gonzalez.
With respect to Zach McKinstry, I think he is being groomed to become the next CT3 or Kike’. This year, Zach played 52 games at 2B, 46 games at SS, 12 games at 3B, and 6 games in the OF (playing all three OF positions). The problem facing Zach is that he is a LH hitter, and the Dodgers need RH hitters. As much as I may like Zach, I do not see him protected for Rule 5. IMO, DJ Peters and Mitchell White are locks. Jordan Sheffield is on the cusp. Other potential players who were previously exposed who could be selected or protected for 2019 could be…Victor Gonzalez, Cristian Santana, and Leo Crawford (very unlikely).
If Zach is exposed, I would suspect that Farhan Zaidi would take a chance on him, invite him to ST and see how he does.
With respect to Andrew Istler, he was one of my favorites (as was Dean Kremer), but was traded to the Nats for Ryan Madson. Andrew pitched in 26 games (16 High A and 10 at AA), with 36.1 IP. He had a 0.73 ERA at High A and 0.79 at AA. He did not allow a HR this year, and had 47 Ks to go with 10 walks. His ceiling is as a middle reliever, although he did have 2 saves in 2 save opportunities at AA this year. He is someone I will continue to follow, as I do Kremer with Baltimore.
Great to have you back AC.
I recall we did have quite a conversation going during that 2016 play-off run by the Loons. It was one of those play-offs where everything clicked. I remember Saige Jenco was an offensive catalyst for sure. The relief pitching was remarkable. Let’s hope history repeats.
Just a quick “welcome back” AC.
I can just imagine that Farhan will have his sights set on all kinds of our guys who won’t be able to be protected from the Rule 5 or are non-tendered. Since he is more than happy to have a revolving door with his roster, he’ll probably pick off a few with the idea he can always send them packing if they don’t perform.
I just don’t think 3 more weeks is gonna make a difference for Jansen. It is what it is and it’s bad! Tough decisions lie ahead! And welcome back AC! We all miss you!
A hardy welcome back AC. Good to see you again. My pitching bullpen for the playoff roster is: Kershaw, Ryu, Buehler, Gonsolin, Jansen, Kelly, Baez, Urias, Kolarek, Fergie, Maeda, and Stripling. And I would like to see Beaty make it also but do not know who to leave off. I think Beaty has earned it.
Today:
Joc (RF)
Seager
JT
Belly (CF)
Beaty (1b)
Smith
Lux
CT3 (LF)
Ryu
I’m sorry but Seager needs to sit for awhile, how long I don’t know. but Taylor should be at SS, Beaty outfield, Freese 1B.
Seager may have a good game but it doesn’t make a difference. .266 .335 .455 .791 there are others that have better numbers.
Mark? Why is my icon different? Did I do something wrong? The prior one had green legs, lol. Thanks.
I have no clue.
A little more on perspective and my least favorite Dodgers closer of all time. On July 4, 1998 Tommy made the biggest mistake of his career. While acting as the GM for the Dodgers, he traded away Paul Konerko to acquire a desperately needed closer, and got back Jeff Shaw.
I remember Jeff Shaw as the guy who would close games with three fly balls to the warning track…
That year, he was an All-Star and saved a whopping 48 saves combined between the Reds and Dodgers.
Shaw
FIP 3.77 WHIP 1.106 H9 7.9 HR9 0.8 BB9 2.0 K9 5.8 K/BB 2.89
Kenley
FIP 3.68 WHIP 1.081 H9 7.5 HR9 1.5 BB9 2.2 K9 11.7 K/BB 5.38
Overall, Kenley isn’t horrible. Hopefully, this is a bump in the road.
They really have no choice to ride this out as long as possible and just get him work. They have other options come postseason, but they’re better off if he can get right. It’s baffling to me to see him throwing 94 and 95 against the Yankees and then look like he did last night.
Yes! It’s either mechanics or in between his ears. Either way he has to work through it.
Gray-Drillers
Pepiot-Loons
Carillo-Quakes
Taking the bump tonight
Pepiot has been limited to two innings each start with the Loons, followed by Zach Willeman.
Alana Rizzo reporting: Alex Verdugo is experiencing soreness in a lingering back issue. #Dodgers are pivoting from his rehab assignment with @ogdenraptors.
Wow, that really sucks. He’s on the risk of not making it back in time.
Oblique’s suck. I just got over one. Felt something golfing. Ignored it then made it bad trying to golf the next day. I was down for a month. Finally got back out there this past week.
It could very well be that Verdugo doesn’t make the playoff roster.
Pepiot out after two innings. Left in the third with 2 on via walks. Justin Bruihl is in to try to put out the fire.
Almost made it. Got 3 outs but a run scored on a passed ball.
Can the good JOC last thru October!
The good Joc is still here. Hope this is a change in approach and not just hot streak.
And with Verdugo now questionable, can Pederson also translate this into success against lefties?
No
Ryu with four straight poor outings. Not a way to enter the post season. Safe to say he’s probably not the prohibitive favorite for the Cy Young award.
Kolarek is making AF look pretty good right now!
An interesting stat…..
RBI’s after Bellinger’s 103
Muncy 87
Turner 86
Seager 85
Pederson 84
Hernandez 80
These are not correct.
Turner (67), Pederson(67), Seager (66), Hernandez -60
Right, I kept hitting the 8 instead of the 6………….. But the numbers are from
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'§ionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1567660685727&team_id=119&playerType=ALL&sortColumn=rbi&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0
Magic Number 5
Lux better deliver some clutch hitting or he’ll never make the playoff roster and the dilemma of whether Beaty or him make the final cut will be decided. He needs a Will Smith impersonation. However, the Fresh Prince is sinking fast. Let’s hope this is temporary.