For a couple of months, some Dodger fans have been saying that Keibert Ruiz will be traded with the rise of Will Smith and now Conner Wong. Dirk Calderwood said it best: “So Dodgers will trade the best most talented hitter in their farm?” He asked that question like it was totally absurd and it turns out he 100% is right. It’s at least as absurd as trading Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias or Corey Seager.
Many Dodger fans were all too eager to trade Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Verdugo at various times, although to a man (or woman) they now deny it. Don’t make me go back in the archives and dig out the comments. You know who you are and now you are in love with Will Smith and to a lesser extent, Conner Wong. Lots of fans are in love with the “flavor of the week.” Today, the flavors are Smith & Wong. Based upon what we are seeing, Will Smith and Conner Wong are headed to the Hall of Fame.
However, I would hold off a dozen years or so before making the busts of their faces. Just like Cody Bellinger was not going to hit .400, Will Smith is not going to 59 HR which was his pace a few days ago. Right about now, Will Smith is hitting .298 with a .370 OB% and OPS’ing 1.091. He also has 12 HR and 33 RBI in 119 Plate Appearances. If he does that over an entire season, he is unquestionably the best catcher EVER in baseball… EXCEPT THAT HE ISN’T!
I wish. I hope. I pray, that he is, but there is no way he can sustain that. At age 19, Will Smith hit .221 for the University of Louisville and followed that up with a .242 BA at age 20. He hit 2 HR his first two years in college. At age 21, he jumped up to .382 and had a .480 OB% while hitting 7 HR. That season got him drafted by the Dodgers.
Later that same year, he started out in Ogden for 7 games, moved to Great Lakes for 23 games and finished the season at Rancho Cucamonga for 25 games. His line for the season was .246 BA/.355 OB% (he has a good eye)/5 HR. In 2017 at age 22, he played all but one game at Rancho (one at Tulsa) and hit .231 (.358 OB%) and 11 HR. His strikeout rate increased to 29% from 24%.
In 2018, Will started at Tulsa where he hit .264 with a .358 OB% and blasted 19 HR before moving to OKC where he fell flat on his face (.138 BA/.206 OB%), striking out 38% of the time is 98 AB’s. Throughout the 2018 season, the Dodgers had been working on his swing and launch angle and that continued in the AFL where he hit .371 with a .452 OB%. He did only hit 2 HR there in 73 AB.
This year at age 24, Smith started at OKC and hit .269 with a .370 OB% and 20 HR. With his 12 with the Dodgers he now has 32 on the year. His strikeout rate is a manageable 24% and he has taken to his new swing like a pig to sloop, but like all hitters, the league will adjust and will he. Cody struggled and Will Smith will struggle as well.
For the record, I like Will Smith a lot and hope he is with the team for a long time… and I think he will be. However, I see him more as a backup catcher and utilityman. I like Keibert Ruiz as the Dodgers future catcher… even over Diego Cartya and here’s why:
Will Smith is about the size of Austin Barnes. He’s smallish for a catcher and I am not just talking about height (5′ 10″). Keibert Ruiz (at age 21 and 40 days) is 6′ 0″ and 200 pounds. By age 23 or 24 he will likely be 215 to 220.
I won’t go through all his minor league batting stats because they are eye-popping in the Rookie Leagues, Rancho and Tulsa until his age 19 year. Before this season, as a teenager, his career BA was .309 (3 years) and his strikeout rate was 11%. Remember, he was usually playing against players 2 to 4 years older.
After hitting .268 in his first year at Tulsa, the Dodgers decided to alter his swing and change the launch angle. Keibert has not taken to that like Will Smith because that also means you strikeout more. The power has not come yet, but it will. After hitting .254 in Tulsa this season, Ruiz hit .316 with 2 HR (40 AB’s) and just 1 K before a broken finger ended his season at OKC . When Smith moved to OKC the first time, he fell flat on his face – Ruiz got better!
To those of you who believe a players’ Age 20 season defines their career, I say you are silly, but KayBear’s Age 20 season was a success as he has finally embraced his new hitting style. Like Alex Verdugo, his power will come later.
For those of you who think Smith is superior defensively, you have to remember what attracted scouts to Ruiz in the first place: his defense. Here’s what BA says about him:
Track Record: Ruiz mainly attracted teams with his defense as an amateur in Venezuela, training at the academy run by former major league shortstop Carlos Guillen. Almost immediately after signing with the Dodgers, Ruiz began holding his own against older players. At age 17 he moved to the Rookie-level Pioneer League and hit .354 as the league’s youngest player. At 18 he jumped to full-season ball and hit .316 with an .813 OPS between low Class A and high Class A. And in his age-19 season, as the rare teenaged catcher in the upper levels, Ruiz had the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter in Double-A, hit a career-high with 12 home runs and ably handled Tulsa’s high-octane pitching staff.
Scouting Report: Ruiz originally intrigued with his defense, but as he’s progressed his offense stands out. He is a gifted switch-hitter with excellent timing and bat speed and loose wrists that enable him to manipulate the barrel to all parts of the zone, giving him excellent plate coverage. He has an aggressive approach and doesn’t walk much, but he stays within the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Ruiz puts together good at-bats from both sides of the plate, but he has faster hand speed and more natural lift in his lefthanded swing. He has progressively added strength and increased his home run total every season, now projecting for double-digit homers to go with a plus bat. Ruiz’s defense lags behind his offense but is still advanced for his age and is constantly improving. He shows good timing blocking balls, is an above-average–if sometimes inconsistent–receiver and has developed a knack for backpicking runners. He has an average, accurate arm that occasionally gets slowed down by footwork and transfer issues, but he made strides to clean those up and improved his caught stealing rate to a career-best 26 percent in 2018. Ruiz also became more confident handling a staff, from presenting gameplans to pitchers to knowing when to take mound visits.
The Future: Ruiz’s success on both sides of the ball as a teenager in Double-A made him the top catching prospect in baseball for many evaluators. His potential as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order catcher has him positioned to be next in the long line of Dodgers great homegrown backstops.
The truth is: We don’t know how good Ruiz can be, but with his bat-to-ball ability (it’s the equal of Alex Verdugo… maybe better), he is likely a .300 hitter in the bigs with potential 20+ HR power. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter and both Wong and Cartya are RH, means he is not going anywhere.
- Seager
- Urias
- Bellinger
- Buehler
- Verdugo
- Smith
Next is the Kay Bear! Write it down. It might be 2020 or 2021. It depends on his progress and the Dodgers needs. Finally, he has a fantastic attitude and work ethic and as he becomes a man, his game will go to the next level. The Dodgers have very few needs that cannot be filled in-house this off-season and AF will not make any dope-fiend moves.

May I add #7, Gavin Lux.
NO! This is all about K-Bear. Because K-Bear is the best hitter in the minors. Lux apparently isn’t anything to write about even though he’s hitting 400 with power this year and is busting the door down. The funny thing is that every other site is writing all about Lux, but here we are reading about K-Bear.
Mark sure has his favorites!
Kenley sucked again last night. No, the blown save wasn’t Taylor’s fault. Most outfielders don’t even get to that ball. Do you think Beaty would get anywhere near that one? If you want to blame positioning, go ahead. But, don’t blame Taylor for not catching a ball that he had to run a mile for. He made a gallant effort on that one.
The problem wasn’t with the bloop double, the problem is what happened afterwards. Really, what happened after the sac fly.
It’s sad that Kenley can’t strand that baserunner. Instead he chokes up a wild pitch. It could have been worse after walking Will Meyers on 4 pitches, he’s guaranteed scoring position because Kenley can’t keep baserunners from running at will against him. Kenley’s problems are between his ears right now. Hopefully he can fix that before the post-season. Doc maneuvered the pen perfectly last night. Joe Kelly got the hard part of the lineup early, Yimi got the bottom of the order, with Kolerek and Baez got the hard part before Kenley comes in for what was supposed to be a cake walk. Doc is learning, I hardly ever find mistakes to complain about with him any more.
We really wiggled off the hook last night because the Padres pinch hit for their good defensive catcher allowing Kike to steal second and then another gift throw from France. I wonder if Padres fans are freaking out about Yates blowing a save?
The good news is we came away with another W thanks to Maeda’s bat no less.
Mark’s probably right about Will Smith not being as good with the bat as he is right now. But, I’ll tell you what. I’d rather have a guy who struggled a little early on then put things together in the upper minors than the other way around. I’m not sure what his 5′ 10″ height has anything to do with anything since that’s right in the middle of Ivan Rodriguez and Yadier Monlina – a perfect height for a great catcher. Maybe that’s why he’s so good at blocking balls. Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes and Ron Cey didn’t seem too hadicapped by being below the 6′ threshold either.
You wanna talk about the DH some more?
Nothing to talk about – It’s coming, just as sure as the new CBA is coming!
You started out right… and then you crashed and burned! This article was all about K-Bear. Not Lux. Maybe Smith and Wond and Cartaya, but not Lux.
In case you forgot:
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/08/09/what-does-gavin-lux-have-to-do-to-get-a-callup-fly/
I think highly of Lux, but today we are talking about Ruiz, not Lux.
Ruiz was the Dodgers #1 prospect before the season. Lux is right now. You suffer from a lack of vision, even though you can see, so I wonder if you have ever really seen Ruiz play. I have watched him dozens of times.
This is not about Lux, but like I said Verdugo would be special, so will Ruiz… maybe Lux too.
I’m a little surprised that the Dodgers, as progressive and data driven as they are, still even have a “closer” role. There’s really no need for a particular order of pitchers to go in sequence, with Kenley designated as the 9th inning pitcher. Where the pitcher is inserted should be based on the leverage of the scenario and the opposing lineup.
If Kenley is the most lock down guy we have (and he’s currently not, but that’s a whole other story) he should be going in and pitching to the heart of the opposing team’s order, whether that’s the 7th, 8th and 9th. It actually worked out that way last night, with Kelly going up against the meaty part of the Pads order. Unfortunately, Kenley was doing his Ricky Vaughn impersonation. https://youtu.be/g_wc9JvTXGc
I’ve seen Lux more than Ruiz, but I’ve seen Ruiz. Ruiz didn’t jump off the page for me, Lux has in every AB that I’ve seen him. When you’re talking about the best hitter in the system, that would be Lux. Verdugo’s better than Ruiz as a hitter and he’s pretty damn good, not great, but pretty damn good. You have to do more than just strike out less. Ruiz had a pretty good, not great, season in A+ and has been pedestrian since. I’ll change my mind when he starts putting up numbers to go with the hype and when he starts throwing out baserunners. Until then, he’s Austin Barnes with less Ks and less athleticism. Austin Barnes was another guy that walked more than he struck out and we’re all seeing how that’s working out.
You have vision Mark, unfortunately it’s tunnel vision. It’s okay to change your mind and admit when you’re wrong. Ruiz was already traded by AF this year, the Pirates didn’t pull the trigger even though their biggest need is catcher. What does that tell you?
Well, I am not an insider, like you. If you say Ruiz almost got traded, it must be true. After all, a few bloggers said it. It has to be true.
Mark you must write about Lux every day and no one else because that’s who everyone is writing about. Lux got ejected last night. How dare you not make that the focus today.
I think this discussion is because of the comment “the best most talented hitter in their farm?” Some think that person is Lux, others say it is Ruiz. I’m just glad we have both of them!
The ball hit him right in the glove. It should have been caught. Plain and simple. Chris Taylor would tell you he should have caught the ball
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It was his 13th WP in a 10 year career. It happens occasionally to every pitcher. More so for some. Have you noticed how many times Kelly has thrown it to the backstop this year?
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Baez got the hard part? He gave up a HR.
Yes, you may.
Thank you AC,DC, and 2demeter2 for your great post on this site,wish one of you had one for today.
Nice, I’ll write slower next time so you can comprehend.
Here’s a suggestion: DON’T READ WHAT I WRITE if you don’t like it!
Guess who invited in AC, DC, and 2D2?
Maybe I can’t write, but I can spot those who can.
Mark, you are always selling something. Today, it’s a catcher. Tomorrow?……….I don’t mind and you are entertaining. Surely, you don’t expect all of us to be customers, do you?
Don’t take that personally MT. I don’t always agree with you, but you’re awesome. People wouldn’t keep coming if they didn’t like you.
Good one Mark. You should have been included in that comment. You do a great job. Kind of an insensitive remark by baseball 1439 in my opinion. Wonder if that was really him or maybe a hacking imposter. Just not like him usually.
It was him…
“The Dodgers have very few needs that cannot be filled in-house this off-season and AF will not make any dope-fiend moves.”
I agree with that but they do have needs. The bullpen. I mentioned a few relievers names yesterday.
As for Ruiz, yesterday during the game when Martin came up a couple times to extend the inning I was thinking I wish we had a backup catcher that could hit. I find myself thinking that a lot with both Martin and Barnes.
I hate the closer label and the saves stat that goes along with it. When someone becomes a “closer” and has success for awhile but then that success becomes less and less they don’t want to give up their spot because of not only ego but chasing the saves record.
I love the closer label when we have one! You are right, we can use a dominant arm for the pen, more of a sure thing. But, that isn’t going to happen this year. And Kenley probably isn’t going to opt out. You never know what will happen year to year. Players have ups and downs. Maybe Kenley’s too skinny like Seager. Maybe they both start eating dairy again and Kenley gets a couple of MHP back and Seager turns some of that warning track into homers.
This is the worst year for closers that I can ever remember seeing. Yates is the saves leader and you saw what happened to him last night. Ardolis has 5 blown as does Hand and Osuna. Doolittle and Hader each blew 6. So who are you going to get that’s gonna be a great improvement? I know you’re gonna say Will Smith, but he’s 30, this is his first year as a full-time closer and he’s blown 4, so he’s not perfect either and isn’t pitching with the added pressure of being on a contender.
59inarow
It’s a lot more complicated than who are you going to go with as the closer. The first and second things you do is put your best offense on the field everyday and your best 5 starting pitchers on the field (Dave Roberts doesn’t necessarily do this). Try to win games decisively so that you give your bullpen some slack for error. Finally you make sure you have enough good bullpen pitchers (Something the Dodgers don’t have right now).
Good pitching beats good hitting. I’m a firm believer.
As for right now, Baez has been our best/most consistent reliever this year. Yes he gave up a homer yesterday but if you look at stats you will find that he is the 3rd best reliever the Dodgers have at giving up the least home runs behind 2 guys that haven’t pitched much this year, Kolarek and Sadler. Look at HR% stat.
Urias is not available right now but he has been our second best/most consistent reliever this year.
Kelly has been good since the all star break and some say since June.
As far as next year goes, I would sign free agent relievers in the off season that will be difference makers and if I couldn’t get enough or if there are not enough from free agency, I would make a trade or 2 for difference maker relievers. I would go with the best match ups when using the bullpen. If Jansen doesn’t like it too bad.
BB, Look at the K/9 stat. The two guys you mentioned are the two guys that don’t strike people out. Are you really suggesting that one of them should be the closer? It’s easy to say you’ll sign free agent relievers that are difference makers, but not listing any names of any free agent relievers that you’re actually going to sign.
I listed 2 free agents yesterday. I didn’t want to sound redundant.
Don’t strike people out? I don’t know who you are talking about.
Making trades isn’t even a thought, as it’s too late to improve this team now. Andrew chose to stay in house for the stretch run, so to know what the needs are for next year may be bit premature. Anything can happen this off season. Stay tuned……
Agreed, it’s just fun to think about how much better this team will be with payroll falling off and these kids producing with the big club. All the prospect capital and some pretty good free agents out there.
This team is good enough to win it all even with all the rest over the next month or so.
Is today the day our Lux starts to change? (See what I did there?)
If Muncy is hurt and gone for a few weeks, perhaps that expedites Lux getting up here and actually playing
Yes, I would’ve traded Seager or Urias or anyone for a chance at Chris Sale or 2015 Cole Hamels or anyone else that could have gotten us a championship. I am more interested in championships than I am in hoarding prospects and yelling “wait till next year when that guy comes up!!”
Sure, our young players are studs, but I’d trade any one of them for a ring. As far as Will Smith, Buster Olney’s article the other day titled something like “Smith is the next Buster Posey” tells me Smith is more than just a backup or a utility guy.
I would’ve sent Ruiz plus any of you on this board to Pitt for Vazquez. It didn’t work out, and let’s hope the bullpen isn’t the main reason we are denied another ring in Oct.
After a while, it’s about titles. Not top farm rankings. Not “who’s the next stud to come up”. Get the title, or become the Buffalo Bills, with Kershaw playing the Scott Norwood role.
I agree with you Bobby. At some point you need to stop hoarding and get that missing link. Sometimes you need to overpay. I’m not advocating that we should have traded Ruiz AND May or Lux for Vazquez. But, maybe we should have tried to pry Smith away from Farhan. Spilt milk at this point. Maybe Urias or Gonsolin should start closing out games.
You don’t think they tried to get Smith? Do you think AF is in competent? The Giants decided they were going for the wild card. If they happened to win the wild card they would play the Dodgers. So, not only did Zaidi have pressure not to deal him but especially to the Dodgers. What was the overpay on that going to look like? Smith got dealt to nobody which tells me AF wasn’t the issue.
Hoarding prospects is no guarantee of winning the WS. Nor is trading them away for an impact player. The Phils originally wanted…who again?….Seager, Urias and Joc for Hamels? So, letting that scenario play out, had the Dodgers done that and Hamels still wasn’t enough to win the WS, where would the team be now?
The Dodgers blueprint is not to go all in, potentially win, then crash and burn and rebuild. Other teams do that with varying levels of success. Even the Cubs, who still have their young core and won with their young core are not winning because they expended capital on expensive free agents who aren’t giving them a good return on their investment.
You can make a good argument that the Dodgers lean too far to the prospect hoarding side of the scale; that they take some risks; but they reportedly did offer Ruiz to the Pirates for Vasquez. Lux should be part of a Dodger middle infield for the next ten years or so. It’s dumb to trade him for a few innings of relief in the playoffs.
Very, very, very rare that you can isolate a single player who will win you a championship.
Better luck hiring Vlad Shpunt, or whatever his name is.
Speaking of Urias, how much longer until we see him again?
Sept 2 or 3? But, he’s supposed to be being stretched out to be a starter possibly.
Thanks 59.
He’s going to pitch in Rancho for 3 innings.
I believe that in this particular baseball era, a franchise needs to add at least a couple of star free agents, and/or obtain stars fro m other clubs by trading top prospects , Certainly not all of the top prospects. Nor is it feasible to have a team full of free agent signings and trade pieces. However, we d not have to worry about that here, because we are on the other end of the spectrum. We pass on every major free agent, and we never make a major trade for some other team’s star player. This is a combination of philosophy and desire for profits over titles.
I mentioned the Yankees the other day. They have a very smart GM, and they are willing to go all-out for the players outside their system which they think can help them. How did the Yankees become so strong in the last couple of years, probably better now than the Dodgers? They brought up the likes of Judge, but they picked up all sorts of players via free agency and trades. Boston won the title last year with players like Sale , Martinez, Price, Kimbrel. Houston made the biggest trade of all, the one which we refused to make, by obtaining Verlander. The reason the Dodgers didn’t go after him is because they didn’t want to pay his contract. This has cost us one title, and very possibly another this year. Imagine if we had Verlander and Houston did not. I think that this was one of the worst non-moves in Dodgers history, even though few talk about it now.
What does this have to do with the topic above? It is all of a piece, to me. Prospects are fun to see go through the system. But rarely does a team win a title with prospects alone. Most prospects are overrated out of wishful thinking. Also, if you won’t pay them after they are no longer cost controlled, they’ll leave, which might well happen with one or two of Bellinger, Seager, Buehler here. It’s not the 1950’s with the reserve clause. An ownership dedicated to winning titles for the fans will go after free agent or trade pieces when they become available, because their strongest competitors certainly will, and because each year matters, and windows for titles close. If we do not win the title for the 31st straight year, it will be because the Yankees or Astros or even Braves, made deals that the Dodgers declined to make, because we are obsessed with staying under the luxury tax threshold, and piling up prospects.
As for Ruiz, I hope he is very good. However, you do not need three catchers in the system, Since I’ve not once seen this Dodgers ownership put together a bundle of prospects to obtain a star player from another team, I don’t know what they are planning to do with all the prospects. Do we remember in a different era, when the Dodgers obtained via trade players like Wally Moon, Ron Perranoski, Claude Osteen, Andy Messersmith, Tommy John, Reggie Smith, Dusty Baker, Burt Hooten? A few of these were not stars when we got them, but some definitely were, or were good players for bad teams; and our front office carefully researched them,and was willing to give up prospects or even starting players to get them. We don’t do that around here now, it’s all about prospects and protecting payroll.
I noticed you left off Stanton whom Cashman would love to have a Mulligan for.’
That contract is going to be hard to deal with.
Mark, you are right, Stanton may have been a mistake. But note how the Yankees got so many other good players, that it hasn’t seemed to have mattered. And Stanton did hit 50 home runs last year, and may well do so in the next few years, we will see. Actually, to me this shows the Yankees management’s philosophy of “going big,” even if a few of the efforts fail. I did want the Dodgers to get Stanton, who wanted to come back to LA. Maybe we dodged something there, because he did have some history of injuries. But we also passed on several players who might well have made us the best franchise in baseball, and given us championships. The key here is that even with the money the Yankees paid to pick up Stanton’s contract, they still had more to give to Chapman, Britton, LeMahieu, and others. Fear of paying too much for someone should not lead to never taking a few shots at the best players.
Person A says Chapman, Britton, and LeMahieu.
Person B says Hill, Machado, Smith and Pollock.
The nouns are different the language and gist the same.
There are also exactly ZERO POINT ZERO people in the known world who would confirm the “Verlander would have meant championship”narrative that is often posited as fact. It’s speculation and hope. Speculation and hope don’t win anything alone.
Which top prospects were traded by the Dodgers to obtain these players? Other than Frank Howard, I’m not aware of any.
Frank Howard , traded for Claude Osteen, was of course pretty much a regular with the Dodgers, a powerful hitter, though he had his flaws. He hit 31 HRs, and I think had 119 RBI on that great team of 1962. The Dodgers also traded fairly touted pitcher Pete Richert and Ken McMullen.
For Perranoski, who was not a star then, we traded Don Zimmer to the Cubs.
For Wally Moon, we traded young and fairly well thought of OF Gino Cimoli. But this was obviously a very favorable trade for us at the time it was made.
For Reggie Smith, we traded Joe Ferguson and a couple of prospects I don’t think I ever heard of.
To get Dusty Baker, we traded Jim Wynn, Tom Paciorek, Lee Lacy, and Jerry Royster. We remember all of those players.
For Andy Messersmith, and Ken McMullen, too, we traded Frank Robinson, obviously near the end of his career, Mike Strahler, a hard-throwing young pitcher, Bill Singer, who had won 20 games for us once, and Bobby Valentine.
For Tommy John, we traded Dick Allen.
So not a lot of topflight prospects, but I don’t think many teams were able to consummate too many trades for very good players by offering minor leaguers in those eras. The Dodgers have always been very fond of their prospects; some of whom become stars,. Note that the way the Dodgers play it now, they rarely have anyone on the major league 25-man roster which starts a season, whom they are both willing to trade, and has value on the market. In the earlier days to which I refer here, the Dodgers had major league pieces they were willing to trade. If the Dodgers of today ever wanted to try to get a star player from some other team, their only two options are through the free agent market, or by trading top minor league prospects, because outside of Buehler, Belling and Seager, none of whom we are going to trade, we really have no player with more than a year of major league experience, whom anyone really would want. So it has to be high-level prospects, or we will never make a significant trade.
This talk of next season, and 59s mention of shed payroll got me wondering – how much are we gonna have to spend?
I guess that Ryu and Hill are gone, which gives us some flexibility.
There might be some old deals (Kemp springs to mind), that might expire?
I don’t think any of our young players need paying yet, although Joc is in his last year and could well be traded.
Freese and Gyorko are also gone.
Turner is gone after 20.
So, I guess we will have some money to spend.
We can presume that Lux takes over 2B, so there is no need there.
The Outfield looks set, as does the Infield, and Catcher, well we’re set there for the next decade.
So, I wonder where the freed up money will go?
Either way, we look set for a while yet, and that is probably AFs biggest achievement to date.
The freed-up money will go to Buehler, Seager, Bellinger, and others they want to keep… maybe Kike or CT3, et al.
A right handed power bat and relief pitching. We have money to sign free agents and talent to acquire pieces. I would love for them to try to lock up Belli, Seager, Urias and Bueller.
As everyone here knows, I know very little.
That said:
1. I think Ryu returns, unless he wants to go back to Korea.
2. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rendon targeted.
3. I would be surprised if they go after any bullpen arm other than Vazquez.
4. If I had to guess…. K Ruiz will be traded. It’s going to be hard for his value to increase with Smith here.
I’m almost as stupid as you are. I agree with 1,2,4. As far as 3 goes, AF will cast a wide net. I can see him revisiting Vazquez, but I think he offers less in the off-season than he did at the deadline because there will be less urgency and possibly more options.
Wow, Mark. Interesting. I think Will Smith is pretty good. He’s really good defensively and hitting with power. He can also play third. Based on everything Friedman has said in the past couple of years, they think highly of Smith. Good chance to continue to be the Dodgers catcher for many years. So what to do with Ruiz? Absolutely nothing. Let him continue to develop and see what happens. Good hitter, no question and the power will no doubt come. The fact that he’s a switch hitter is a plus. I suppose all this is probably centered on the trade deadline and the fact that the Dodgers made Ruiz available because they are loaded with catchers. But I wouldn’t trade Ruiz unless the return offered tremendous value. I get it that some people would trade the entire farm system to win a World Series, but I’m not one of them. The ultimate goal may be to win a World Series, but that has more to do with luck, a team getting hot at the right time or simply being better than everyone else … which doesn’t happen very often (The Red Sox last year, a couple of Yankee teams during their run and one of the Giants teams). Plus most trades really don’t move the needle. What the Dodgers have created is a team dominating the NL West over an extended period, which gives them an opportunity to win a World Series every season. It’s fun to win over the summer. If the Dodgers had won three Titles and we’re sitting where the Giants are right now, would any of us really be happy? A few I suppose. But I enjoy a summer where the Dodgers win 90 to 100 games. It’s fun. I enjoy watching Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Smith and all the players the team refused to trade for a Hamel or Sale or any of the other “difference makers” of the day. It’s certainly okay to make deals, but everybody wants the elite players like Lux, Ruiz or a few years ago, Seager and Bellinger. Friedman has done a good job avoiding trading prospects who have become the core of a very successful team.
I surely don’t know how things will play out. I do like Will Smith as he seems to fit right in, seems to hit in the clutch and a good sign is when a hitter can go up the middle and to the opposite field. He also appears to be modest and has leadership skills. He is a converted shortstop so behind the plate doesn’t have to be his position forever in MLB.
“Smith has outstanding athleticism for a catcher and it translates into quality defense behind the plate. His average to solid arm strength plays as plus because he has quick footwork. With his soft hands and agility, he receives and frames well, and he also has shown he’s a capable third baseman and passable second baseman.”
” He also has solid speed and can steal an occasional base. ”
I also like Keibert and see no reason why he shouldn’t continue to improve as he progresses. Most guys don’t hit their peak at 21 or are playing at AAA at 21. I think next year will be pivotal for both Smith and Ruiz. For Will to see if the league has caught up to him, maybe we will see that in the next month, and to see how a full MLB season behind the plate goes. He is still very much on the learning curve. For Keibert to see how he continues to grow in a full season at AAA as he too is still on a learning curve. I don’t think it is an accident that his mentor, Travis Barbary, is the manager with the OKC Dodgers.
I also don’t think it is either/or with Smith and Ruiz. Why can’t we have both? Why does one have to be traded at this point while still in a growth spurt? I think the Dodgers have other trade options if a bullpen piece has to be acquired.
It is way too early to speculate on Diego Cartaya who is still 17. He made a good transition to the AZL this year. He already is 6’2″/199- pounds so has size behind the plate. He slashed .296/.353/.437 with the AZL Dodgers in his first experience stateside. He threw out 32% of would be base stealers.
Lots of speculation going on here. There is no certainty in that. No one can say they should have, would have, if only they had…..we would’ve won. It’s nonsense and as grown ups we need to abandon this kind of thinking.
Of course, the Dodgers have made mistakes. Don’t let Mark hear this. There have been plenty of FA’s they’ve passed on and many would have made us a better team. TEAM, folks. This is a team game and no one player can claim responsibility for victory. When you have a Gibson type victory in the WS, that is not normal, but it can happen. The team had to get to that spot as a team or else Gibson would never have had that chance to do something special.
This season, someone or someone(s) is going to have an inspired playoff and victory. But it’s the team that needs to give them that chance. Turner has been that force for us for a few years now, but it is a lot to ask one player to do that all the time. We need some inspired playing come the playoffs. Even Las Vegas can’t be certain of the outcome but they are pretty darn good when picking winners. We’ve got a special team, lots of talent, and we need them to rise to the occasion, but will they? If they don’t, it’s on them. They are being given the chance, once again, to do something great. Will they find their way this time? I can’t answer that.
Last night was a W and a W is a W, however, it wasn’t a very satisfying W because the Pads gave it away as much as we won it. It is so much better when we are clearly the better team and we go out and play like it. Maeda has trouble getting out of the first inning. In fact, it seems that the first inning is difficult for several of our starters. It isn’t necessarily that they give up runs, but to often they are making 20-24 pitches in the first inning which translates into a shorter outing and more pressure on the BP.
I continue to blame Mark Pryor (for no apparent reason).
And ditto for Jerry White, official scorer, also for no apparent reason.
Gavin Lux illustrates my general reasoning about the farm. He could have been given up on as a never gonna improve young ball player. But they saw something I didn’t and now he’s on everyone’s can’t miss list. I still have hope Alvarez matures into his awesome physical potential. I’m in a small group there but I’m nothing if not stubborn. Youngsters rise at different speeds and hit speed bumps at different levels. Scouts see something special in Ruiz and also in Cartaya, and even in Alvarez. And all I really know is what I read in the scouting reports. Though I have to admit Ruiz’s value is high in trades I doubt if any team in MLB is likely to give back what he may end up being worth. I like the trades that trade ok MLB players that are not fitting into the program… for good prospects. I think you probably know which trade I’m talking about.
I have no reason to doubt Ruiz’s ability. The Dodgers are in a position of strength at catcher. I have to say I don’t really count Wong though and for this season Ruiz’s spike at AAA could be attributed to getting hot, or the hitting coach, or the AAA balls being juiced like the MLB balls. Too small of a sample size.
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I would have dealt Ruiz for Vasquez and without knowing the other pieces offered I think Pittsburgh should have taken it. Huntington wanted the Dodgers to pay for his past mistakes dealing with Tampa and Texas.
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Ruiz deserves a full year at AAA for his development. His name will continue to pop up in trade talks. I would deal him for the right piece but I’m not giving him away just because the Dodgers are deep at that position. Catchers take a beating. Next year it could be Smith that breaks a finger or wrist. However, part of the reason you have a good farm system is to be able to go acquire assets from other teams. With the emergence of guys like Beaty and hitting on players like Gray shouldn’t we assume the Dodgers scouting and development will continue to be a strength. They can afford to deal from a position of strength when it’s the right time.
I’m not the minor league expert (or the major league expert for that matter), but it seems Jeren Kendall has really turned it on the last month? Has he finally figured things out? I think it’s great he’s off to the AZ Fall League.
He is a gigantic wild card in the minors for us! I know many have already labeled him a bust, much as they did Lux. Hopefully Kendall is just a later bloomer (like CT3, Justin Turner, Max Muncy). As Dick Calderwood said above, “Youngsters rise at different speeds and hit speed bumps at different levels.”
I remember a lot of industry eyebrows were raised the day we drafted Kendall in the first round. Everyone always knew he had great speed, athleticism and defensive tools but most thought he would never solve his strike out problem. Obviously the Dodger scouting team thought otherwise. So far (until about a month ago) it seemed as though everyone else was right and we were wrong. It would really be nice if it turns out we were the ones who were right.
I can’t believe that we’re arguing about prospects. That’s all Ruiz is at this point. He may be the second coming of Mickey Cochrane, or the second coming of Dioner Navarro – we don’t know yet, nor will we for several years, assuming that the gets the chance to be a regular starter.
The same with Smith. He’s been great the 1st go round through the league, but the league will adjust. We have no idea whether he will be the next Buster Posey (per Buster Olney of ESPN.com, he is) or the next Bill Sudakis.
That’s why they call them prospects. You don’t know what you’ve got until you’ve got it.
I will say one thing – you trade from a position of strength, where you have more than what you need to get what you need from someone else. If the Dodgers are sure that Smith and Ruiz and Cartya are all going to be great, they should keep the best 2 and trade the other for a weakness elsewhere.
For now, there’s not one of us who can accurately predict the future. Until the future plays out, I suggest that the Dodgers will wait and see what they actually have.
Exactly! That’s why you hoard catchers. If you trade. It might be the wrong one.
Over the past 25 years I have predicted a few players would-be Hall of Famers when they were still 20 or less:
1. Adrian Beltre
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Corey Seager
4. Cody Bellinger
5. Russell Martin
6. Andy LaRoche
I aced the first two.
The second two are to be decided.
Russ Martin had the work ethic and was great in LA, but after he left it went to hell.
Andy LaRoche – What was I smoking?
What about Joel Guzman? The next Adrian Beltre!
I never liked Guzman’s tools.
I haven’t read through ederyth
I will re-post what I started after I get home. I hate posting on my phone. All it takes is a stray movement by your finger, and everything you wrote is lost. And that’s what happened when I re-wrote my post, and then accidentally hit a link to another site.
I will, if time allows, re-post on my computer when I get home.
Today in AZ:
Joc
Beaty (1b)
JT
Belly
Pollock
Seager
Smith
Kike
Ryu
Damn, no Lux?
I’m home now, and sitting at my computer posting this. I do most of my posting from my phone, but there are times that that can become frustrating. A lot easier with my clicky keyboard, and 24 inch 4K screen.
This is what I was going to say when my phone sabotaged me earlier:
1. Wasn’t Yu Darvish considered, almost universally, the prize pitching target at the 2017 trade deadline? And wasn’t there a lot of doubt expressed about Justin Verlander. If memory serves, there were a lot of questions regarding Verlander’s effectiveness at that time.
2. Also, if memory serves, I believe that Darvish pitched very well down the stretch for the Dodgers, and in the NLDS and NLCS. It was only in the WS where Darvish suddenly lost his effectiveness, which was only made to seem that much worse in contrast to Verlander’s performances.
3. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight we now view Darvish and Verlander a lot differently than we did prior to their 2017 post-seasons. But 20-20 hindsight is just that; HINDSIGHT, and not VISION.
Since they put Kenley in the mix I don’t care about his situation, he has a month to solve it, if he doesn’t succeed, the team has interesting alternatives. This still has a lot of history to write.
This is how nasty Joe Kelly has become…
https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1167039602089189377
Kelly has always had spectacular stuff. When he’s right he’s unhittable. The problem which has followed him throughout his career is his inconsistency.
Let’s hope we see the current Kelly all the way through the playoffs.
The Dodgers thought they could “fix” Kelly… it took time, but maybe…
In the beginning the year I dreaded him coming in. I’ve done a total 180, and now I’m excited to see him come in, not only for the results, but to watch the filthy stuff!
Where is Lux? Pull him from OKC game and bubble wrap him until further testing is done on the wrist of Muncy.
Muncy just stated range of motion not good and it is very painful. He believes he got hit in the same spot as Taylor. Remember the initial test on Taylor showed no fracture as it was done on some archaic machine in Boston. The one they tested Max’s wrist on last night does not show small fractures so further testing will be needed.
I agree 59, Kelly has been awesome for the last two months, He deserves some run in the 9th inning or whatever the most high leverage situation is, His stuff is the best on the team and he arguably has pitched better then Jansen in the postseason.
I agree with you Brooklyn. We got Darvish in 2017. Everyone thought he would lead us to a championship. In 2018 we got Manny. Now we have posters who say only if we got this guy. Joe Kelly was a mess until the WS started. Nobody knows what will happen. That includes every poster on this board.
Mark, you do a great job. 1949 delivered a low punch. I probably would kick him off the board, but I know you are bigger man than me.
But you have to admit that what 1949 did was eloquent.
It doesn’t bother me, but I give back what I get.
I’m not very good at turning the other cheek.
Did you and Al hit the bottle early, or are you referring to baseball1439? Because that was funny. More funny than Mark trying to be funny and coming off as butt hurt.
I liked it. It was eloquent!
When is “early?”
I have been blogging on two blogs for several years and know a thing or two. Very little makes me “butt hurt.”
I misread you and thought you needed a hug, so I reminded you that you are loved.
Weekdays
There is no question in my mind that Ryu has “hit the wall.” He is physically or mentally tired… probably both. Skip his next two starts.
There goes Ryu’s Cy Young
You beat me to it.
Here on this board we talk about who should be gone and etc.I say get rid of Roberts he has no clue when to take a pither out.
I think Roberts left him in there to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has hit the wall. He gave him every chance and he did not do it.
Definitely get rid of the manager who has gone to back to back WS!
I’m confused. I thought it was the Yankees representing a high level of competition that did Ryu in….
Wow a month ago Ryu and Belli looked like shoe ins for Cy Young and MVP and now?
1st runner up?
And before the Yankees it was Atlanta.
And why doesn’t Joc do that more often when he sees a lefthander?
Wow after having that ridiculous ERA 3 weeks ago, Ryu ERA right now is 2.35.
This should make us appreciate how good Clayton has been this year. He has given up 4 ER 3 times this year. In every other game it was less. Maybe the peaks are not as high as they once were, but the lows are not low either. That’s why he’s still the Ace!
If Ryu has a chance to be a Cy Young, I don’t understand why Roberts doesn’t change him before he damages his ERA. ???
It’s more about winning a World Championship. Ryu needs to sit for two weeks. This proves it. Forget the Cy Young… it’s all about a Championship.
Sometimes you have to lose some battles to win the war!
These are the only games that teams like Az, Col and SF have left to get excited about.
We have seen in previous years that it’s hard for the Dodgers to keep pounding away.
We will be fine once the adrenaline of the Post Season clicks in.
I sincerely hope Muncy isn’t hurt – he is key.
It is questionable why Doc left Ryu in for so long. Probably the fear of his BP being put on the line for the rest of the game. However, this is the 3rd losing start for Ryu. He was walloped by the Yankees his last outing and lost his outing in Atlanta. If the bats don’t save this game, Ryu will have lost 3 in a row. That is big, especially this time of year and to two top teams in the league. Many of us said he should be pulled and given time off to find his rhythm again. Does anyone doubt that right now? If he can’t find his way back, I wonder if that would affect the FO re-signing him. Dodgers look lost in this game.
When it rains it pours.
Exactly as I said it. The BP/Kelly couldn’t hold. 10-4.
Maybe we are not as good as we think we are, slightly above average since all star break, wake up, dog days are over, start playing better baseball now!!!
If this continues with Ryu, it won’t just be the Dodgers who pass on him in free agency. Then again , who knows? Maybe Ryu has hit a wall or maybe he somehow finds a second wind.
It’s all about the playoffs. Let’s pay the guys who produce come October!
And how many line outs is that? And a couple with the bases loaded. I think Murphy has decided to spend some time with the Dodgers.