Over the past couple of days, I have heard how stupid it was for Andrew Friedman to sign Chris Negron and Tyler White and that they were a waste! I have heard that bringing Tony Gonsolin up to pitch in Coors was a mistake and I heard that Ryu also couldn’t pitch at Coors Field. I also heard that the league was catching up to Alex Verdugo. Additionally, I heard that the Dodgers would trade Keibert Ruiz and some other TOP 10 Prospects. I called BS on it all.
Well, those of you who predicted any or all of that were wrong – DEAD WRONG! However, I am not happy about it… nor am I sad. I am ambivalent and I am staying the course. I would have liked for the Dodgers to get a reliever or two, but evidently Andrew Friedman felt that what he had to pay was more than it was worth and there’s one thing you need to write down and memorize: TRADING FOR A TOP RELIEVER DOES NOT COME WITH A MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES. If it did, I would trade the entire Top 10!
Last year, Boston had a 75-34 record on August 1st and Dave Dombrowski was castigated for not shoring up the bullpen when it was really, really bad. Craig Kimbrel was ineffective and Joe Kelly was a wreck. All he got at the trade deadline was “Broken-Down” Nate Eovaldi and “Has Been, Never Was” Steve Pearce. We all know what happened, It’s pure, unadulterated fiction that you can just go out and buy these sort of things.
Many sportswriters have tabbed the Astros as the winners of the trade deadline and the Dodgers and Yankees (the two best teams in baseball) as the losers. The witters who make “thousands” are so much smarter than the GM’s who make “millions.” In case, you aren’t sure, I am being sarcastic!
Let’s take a quick look at MY Dodgers Top 10 Prospects. Of course, most prospects don’t make it, but sometimes, they all make it.
#1 Gavin Lux
I would be shocked if Gavin Lux doesn’t seize the day and become the starting 2B in the playoffs. He is a special talent – one that I could not see when he was drafted. I thought he was a wasted pick, but Andrew Friedman and Company accurately projected him. He could be a perennial All-Star and future team leader. He has it all: Power, Speed, Fielding, Athleticism, Baseball IQ. He is the complete package.
#2 Dustin May
Dustin May is coming up on Friday and is a fastball pitcher with a great amount of “run” and “sink” on his fastball. He has hit 98 a few times this year. He has a very good curveball and an excellent cutter. His changeup is a work in progress, but he is a player who I think will be on the playoff roster. His innings are mounting and a great way to limit them this year is to put him in the bullpen, His fastball and cutter are all he needs and if he mixes in a curve now and then, he will screw hitters into the ground. Dustin May might be a #2 or #3 on any other team but the Dodgers. In the pen, he might be “lights out.” You will see him in a Ravine near you soon… like Friday!
#3 Keibert Ruiz
I cannot begin to tell you how special this 21 year-old is, so I won’t. Just watch and learn. I am so glad Andrew Friedman doesn’t make dope-fiend moves because most of you would have. He is VERY, VERY, VERY Special.
#4 Will D. Smith
It’s pretty hard to argue against Will Smith – he has been outstanding, but to me, he’s Steve Yeager with a guru teaching him about “launch angle’ and “staying in the zone.” Will Smith is a 20 HR guy who plays great defense and will hit .230. That’s my opinion. He currently is ahead of Babe Ruth’s HR pace and that simply is not sustainable. I hope he becomes what many of you want him to be. I doubt it… I hope I am wrong, but we shall see. He is an upgrade over Austin Barnes.
#5 Josiah Gray
He has only been pitching a couple of years, but how far he has come! 97 MPH fastball, a beautiful slider, and a curveball that is getting better by the game. Most of all, he’s an athlete and will either be a middle-of-the-rotation starter or a high-leverage reliever.
#6 Tony Gonsolin
You saw it a couple of days ago: High 90’s fastball, devastating splitter, good slider and a really nice hook (well he didn’t show that in Coors). He was a great hitter in college as well as a bullpen guy. There is no question that he can start, but I see him as a RH Andrew Miller… and I see him in that spot THIS year. He can pitch 3 innings, set up the closer or close.
#7 Jeter Downs
It’s possible he becomes a utilityman, but I can see him in the outfield… maybe even CF. He doesn’t have one “great” tool, but he has 5 very good tools. He is a baller, and a junkyard dog and I love that!
#8 DJ Peters
I was lukewarm on DJ… until he moved to AAA and Scott Coolbaugh helped him “Flip the Switch.” He has cut down on his strikeouts. His pitch recognition is awesome and his power is obscene. He can also play CF at 6’6″.
#9 Michael Grove
This is just a rehab year for Grove. Next year, the kid gloves come off. He looks like a starter, but really has only two pitches: a mid-90’s fastball and a mid-80’s slider that moves like a fiend. To me, he another high-leverage reliever.
#10 Kody Hoese
I have only seen him twice, but I anoint Kody Hoese as the Dodgers 1B of the future… like in 2021! He plays 3B now, but that will change. He’s a power-hitting 1B, I expect to see him in 2021.
That is my TOP 10. Some may disagree… and that’s OK. I did not mention Mike Busch, Dennis Santana, Mitch White, Diego Cartaya, Jacob Amaya, Omar Estevez, Edwin Rios, Jimmy Lewis, Edwin Uceta, Gerardo Carrillo, Miguel Vargas, Devin Mann, Christain Santana, Andre Jackson, Robinson Ortiz, Jordon Sheffield or Marshall Kasowski. Some of those prospects would be TOP 10 in other organizations.
Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t make. In 2017 and 2018, the Dodgers lost because of a lack of hitting with RISP. Andrew Friedman addressed that issue with Robert Van Socyoc and his two assistants and the results have been dramatic. The future is bright, but the goal is to win the 2019 World Series. I still believe the Dodgers are the team to beat. They are evolving… That’s the only solution… EVOLVE!
The Trades
There were only four and none involved big names. Some people call Friedman a “Dumpster Diver” but he’s really so much better than that.
- The Dodgers traded Niko Hulsizer for LOOGY Adam Kolarek who has held LHB to a .180 BA this season.
- The Dodgers traded Tony Cingrani for Jedd Gyorko, cash, and International Signing Bonus Slots. Gyorko is on the IL but has 30 HR power and a penchant for getting big hits, Right now, he’s just depth, but he’s capable of being Steve Pearce. Jedd has a $13 million option for 2020.
- The Dodgers traded Daniel Castro to the Mariners for Chris Negron, who is also just depth, but if he never takes another swing, he has been a great buy.
- The Dodgers traded Andre Scrubb to the Astros for Tyler White who is also just depth, but he has also done his job.
So that’s it. No big name relievers changed hands, most likely because the asking price was too high. Roger Askew had an astute take on all of this trade deadline malaise:
I know Plaschke of the L.A. Times is gonna have Freidman’s ass for breakfast tomorrow morning, but you know what? Every MLB and ESPN baseball writer was tweeting and writing that Friedman was one of the most aggressive guys the last few days trying to get a few lock-down relievers. Call me crazy, but I think he just ran into too many brick walls in this sellers market. The asking price for the relievers were just way high, and NOT ONE elite reliever, Vasquez, Hand, Diaz, was moved. Greene from the Tigers doesn’t really move the needle for me. Too many teams wanted one or all of our top prospects, and I think Friedman just had to back away from the table. I truly truly believe that he gave it his best shot, he knows damn well how special this team is. Don’t count him out yet, he might not be done. I bet he was real frustrated today.
Well stated! It all starts with “Understanding.”
Friedman and Company have two months to put a playoff bullpen together. You can only take 8 or 9 from this list: Gonsolin, May, Sadler, Hill, Maeda, Urias, Stripling, Ferguson, Floro, Baez, Alexander, Kelly, Jansen, and Kolarek. That’s a lot to choose from and two months is a long time. I’m anxious to see Dustin May on Friday. The butterflies got Gonsolin in his first start. Can May crack that code?
It’s a great time to be a Dodger fan and AF insured that they will be relevant way into the future. Once you get to the World Series, the stuntmen, cripples and the unheralded must step up. That’s how the Boys in Blue won the last one!
Other News
- The Dodgers are now #8 in bullpen ERA.
- Yes, 258 Comments are a record. Thanks to everyone.
- I was told about 10 days ago, that Lux would be called up by August 1st. It was from a scout at another organization. It hasn’t happened yet, so I now have no clue, but I would like to see him now and I think it makes perfect sense.
- Do you realize that since his rookie year, Clayton Kershaw has never had and ERA above 2.91? He sits at 2.85 right about now and is still one of the Top 10 Starters in baseball. He is currently #9 in Starter ERA among qualifiers.
- Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Gerrit Cole have given up 65 HR this season. Ryu, Kershaw and Buehler have combined to give up just 39. There’s something to be said about keeping the ball in the yard!
Random thoughts post trade deadline:
It’s no secret I wanted the Dodgers to get Ken Giles and I wanted Noah Syndergaard too. Yes there was a report that Giles was still dealing with a nagging arm issue, whether or not that is true I don’t know, it could have just been trade deadline BS.
Well the Dodgers didn’t get either one, but that’s alright because the positive part of the trade deadline was that the Dodgers did not trade any of my untouchables. I’m a bigger fan of developing your own prospects rather than trading them away for something that might not work out, but not all prospects will make it to the big show, so I’m all for trading some prospects just depends on which ones.
My untouchables as far as prospects are concerned are Lux, May, Ruiz, Smith, Gonsolin, Hoese, Peters, Kasowski. I’ll briefly explain why:
I see Lux as our future 2B, almost everyone if not everyone will agree with this one.
I see May as a future starting pitcher, glad to see him being called up.
Smith well our starting catcher.
I see Gonsolin as at least a future reliever if not a starter.
I see Hoese as our future 3B when Turner’s time is up, Turner is getting up there in age but he is still damn good. This one is probably a long ways away but still.
I see DJ Peters as a future outfielder, the last piece of the puzzle in the outfield along with Bellinger and Verdugo. This probably has consequences for one of my favorite Dodgers Joc Pederson and consequences for AJ Pollock.
Call me crazy but I see Kasowski as a CANDIDATE for the future closer spot and if he doesn’t become the future closer, I see him as at least a very solid reliever.
Last is Ruiz, and I’ve gotten negative feedback from people here on this one. I see Ruiz and Smith as our catchers of the future and present (Smith present). Smith can play 3B too from what I have read. Let me ask you a question would you rather have 2 offensively productive catchers or would you rather have Smith and a Barnes type that hits about .220 or worse? Also assuming both can hit, I don’t see why they can’t be used in an about 60%/40% scenario, catching is a position that takes its toll on the body, so wouldn’t you like to extend Smith’s career as a Dodger catcher by not worrying about losing some offense in the catching spot by giving him plenty of days off with Ruiz? What if Smith gets injured, do you want a Barnes type starting for however long it takes to get Smith back? Yes there’s that pesky thing called free agency, but I’m thinking positively.
I maybe wrong on some of that above and I may be wrong on all of that above (highly doubt wrong on all of that) but the future is bright for the Dodgers and I still think we are the favorites in the National League to go to the World Series. I think the Houston Astros are the favorite in the American League. A 2017 rematch is brewing, lets hope the final result is different this time.
I guess I’ll comment on who the Dodgers got. Its obvious that the Dodgers are looking at the post season and letting Freese, Taylor and Hernandez get 100% healthy instead of rushing them back. That is why they got Gyorko, Negron and White, but also to give Turner plenty of rest when needed. I don’t expect much from these guys but you never know when it comes to Friedman. I knew a loogy was coming, about a month ago I made a prediction the Dodgers would get Diekman, well I was wrong on the name but right on the role (a loogy). I can’t believe Kolarek got past me when researching for loogies. Put Kolarek together with either Floro or Maeda, most likely Floro unless number crunching keeps Floro off the post season roster and you got a guy tough on left handed hitters and a guy tough on right handed hitters that combined can eat an inning.
As for Vasquez and Smith the pitcher, I figured they wouldn’t be traded that’s why I ignored them in the discussions here for the most part. And if Smith was on the market I figured the Dodgers and Giants would not make a trade, they hate each other. As for Greene, this is his first year pitching good, lucky? I’ll pass, although I admit I thought about it but it didn’t take long to conclude I’ll pass.
I’ll leave you with this, cheers to the mostly home grown Dodgers and the next World Series champions.
If I were the Dodgers, I would start to have Beaty what is it called take reps at 3B along with 1B although he already looks pretty good at 1B. Turner is going to need a back up next year when he needs rest and I really like Beaty it’s just that all the positions are going to be permanently filled once Lux gets 2B and when DJ Peters arrives. Does Beaty have a solid throwing arm?
I am fine with not making moves yesterday. There was really no one out there who would improve us.
We have a great starting rotation this year. Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw, I think they match up pretty well against any other “big 3” including the Astros.
I would put Urias and Maeda in the bullpen, and along with Kelly and Jansen and (god help me) Baez, I think we have a pretty good bullpen.
Mark you were right about Plaschke, and his condemnation of Friedman! What a loser Plaschke is. Every time he “anoints” a team, I put them in the losing column.
Offense will have to be better because in tight games it will be hard. Need also to score more runs and also pitch well but hopefully someone will step up and Jansen at least would be decent. I think Jansen in playoffs has been good but on both WS he has been horribly bad. Lets hope first to reach the WS Again !! Also if Maeda goes to bullpen lets hope he is the 2017 version and not 2018. Do you think Lux, Peters will also be called up eventually ?? And please no more JOC at 1b !!!
I’m happy that none of the top prospects were traded. Good for AF for sticking with his guns and not being bamboozled by the Pirates or any other team. Now it’s up to the players to step up and recapture that elusive championship.
If the Dodgers win it all, it will be credited to the players.
If they don’t, it will be Andrew Friedman’s fault.
Just ask that Fish Hack Plaschke!
Houston Mitchell with an AF quote:
”We feel we’ve got a team and depth in place to win a championship,” he said in a conference call after the deadline had passed. “As we spend time kind of laying out what the prospective bullpen looks like in October, we feel good about the talent we have in house. Now it’s all about syncing it up and putting together the unit in a way that is a real asset for us. Now we’ve got to figure out the right combination of guys and we’ve got two months and lot of really talented arms.’’
Great Read in the Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/1109374/2019/07/31/dodgers-didnt-win-the-trade-deadline-but-they-can-still-win-the-world-series/?source=dailyemail
In part it says:
At the trade deadline, the Dodgers opted to rely on the pitching within their organization rather than that outside of it. They declined to pony up for elite, established relievers like Felipe Vázquez and Edwin Díaz, instead placing a significant bet on Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen and others in their organization to find steady form by October 3.
The team’s No. 2 pitching prospect, Tony Gonsolin, flashed his relief potential in a Tuesday save, and the team’s No. 1 pitching prospect, Dustin May, will reportedly make his major-league debut Friday. Many big-league evaluators believe both pitchers have a better chance to impact the Dodgers’ playoff chances than the two players they traded for Wednesday.
I thought AC might be interested in this position:
https://www.bruinsnation.com/2019/7/25/8930814/ucla-blog-bruins-nation-hiring-writers
I moved up my retirement and applied immediately when I saw that yesterday.
I guess I have to double your pay! 😉
OK, I am staying.
Dodgers 2019 WS Champions !!
I wanted Vasquez, but not at any cost. I mentioned previously that I was on the fence about including Ruiz given that I have never seen him. And the same goes for other prospects. Without seeing those players first hand makes it impossible for me to arrive at a definitive conclusion.
What I do suspect is that Friedman believes in taking a long term perspective, and that while he wants a championship this year, he will not do anything that throws the Dodgers off-course from the objective of competing EVERY year. He’s not only smart, but young. Hence his long term perspective.
I suspect that over the next couple of months that the Dodgers will begin to integrate young players like May, Gonsolin and Lux, and use that time to determine which, if any, of them will play a post-season role.
As for who will play where in the future, I believe that whatever any of us speculate, performance over the next few years will determine the outcome. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that the best laid plans generally go awry.
I will predict that the Dodgers will have 4-5 rookies on the Playoff Roster:
Smith
Verdugo
Gonsolin
May
Maybe Lux
That might be unprecedented for a team who has been to back-to-back World Series.
That’s a pretty safe bet, Mark. I predict Bellinger will bat cleanup and Maeda will be moved into the bullpen. 😉
What about Beaty?
I don’t think Plaschke was that hard on him. If Lux was the sticking point, than I agree with standing pat.
No bullpen arms that clearly moved the needle were traded, but sadly, our biggest need wasn’t addressed. We will never know what was offered and refused vs what was requested. Smith, Diaz, and Vazquez were the only clear cut difference makers and they all stayed put.
Greene has a lot of saves on a crappy team with a sterling WHIP and ERA, but his FIP sucks making him a regression candidate. Melancon looks pretty average and isn’t a clear upgrade. I’m not sure anyone else outside of Dyson was a clear upgrade to the arms that we already have at our disposal.
What we already have… Gonolin came up and said “I got this” at Coors Field no less. GT is up next. Who knows? Maybe Sheffield comes up and becomes K-Rod. They can all turn out to be better than the Greene’s, Melancons and Dysons of the world.
This was the worst / craziest trade deadline I can remember. Now, it’s time to move on.
I’m excited to watch Ginger Thor tomorrow.
Friday is May Day!!
Physician heal thyself! I too feel (hope) we have the pieces to win it all. The cup is half full!
Love to see the kids come up and produce. May Day, May Day!
1. I will repeat. I was never an advocate for Felipe Vazquez because of the cost. It was clear that Pittsburgh never wanted to trade him, and held out for highway robbery. Neither Huntington or AF blinked, and both teams are happily walking away without a deal. So am I. I do NOT believe that the Dodgers will now lose the WS because they did not trade 2 of the top 4 prospects plus others for Vazquez. I have always believed that the Dodgers CHANCES would be improved if they got an additional 1 or 2 high leverage late inning setup type relievers. They did not, but that does not mean they will lose to Atlanta or Chicago or St. Louis in the NL or Houston, NYY, Cleveland, or Boston in the WS. And getting Vazquez would not have guaranteed those positive results either.
2. I was not for Diekman or any other John Axford/Zac Rosscup/Ryan Madson level of reliever. If the team could not get a legit late inning high leverage reliever, then I agree…pass. Next man up.
3. While KJ is not nearly the same KJ we saw in 2017 and prior, he is still an effective closer. He is no longer elite, but 25 saves and only 4 blown saves is not bad. Aroldis Chapman has one more blown save than does KJ. I do not believe most NYY fans want to dump Chapman.
4. I have never been an advocate for a loogy because that very much limits your bullpen. In 80 PA this year, Adam Kolarek holds LHB to a .187/.238/.293/.531 slash line. That is pretty good. Against RHB his line is .272/.356/.478/.834. That’s not so good. But the Dodgers have a pitcher already on the roster with 90 PA against LHB has allowed a slash line of .143/.191/.179/.370. It certainly appears that the latter has a better chance against LHB than the former. The latter pitcher is Pedro Baez. I am not saying Adam Kolarek is a bad pitcher, but he is only a loogy. To me, he is a less talented Scott Alexander.
5. Last year the best loogy for LAD in the NLDS and NLCS was this year’s fan pinata, Caleb Ferguson. He was in 6 games (NLDS 2 and NLCS 4). He pitched a total of 3 innings. He faced 10 batters, and did not allow a run or hit, 1 walk, and 3 strikeouts. He inherited one runner who did not score. I do not know how you get much better. This year has been a different story until lately. His last three games were more representative as to how he pitched last year. Including his last outing on Monday. Already down 6-0, he relieved Kenta Maeda with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out. He intentionally walked the first batter, and then got a strikeout, flyout, and strikeout to end the inning. Perhaps he is finally healthy.
6. I was not one of those who said anything negative at all against Kristopher Negron or Tyler White. They are exactly the type of player that AF looks for. It did not cost much at all. But I do not expect to see either one on the post season roster. While both may help in the short term, it does not make the team better in the long run.
7. While you may be fine without the Dodgers making a move, to delegitimize what Houston did is naive. Zack Greinke made a good rotation even better. They now have 3 starters with a WHIP of 1.00 or better and an ERA of 3.00 or better. Their #4, Wade Miley also has strong metrics, just not at the Verlander/Greinke/Cole level. HR numbers in Minute Maid Ballpark are meaningless. While I do think they gave up too much, they are certainly the favorite to get to and win the WS in 2019. That does not mean they will, but they are certainly primed to do so.
8. One last thing, while I have always been an advocate for the Dodgers farm system, and growing from within, I do not look at what the players do at the AAA level and believe that translates immediately to success at the ML level. Otherwise why waste time in AAA?
I am not upset with what happened yesterday. Gonsolin looked good to me at Coors. So did Sadler. I just do not think Floro, Chargois, and Garcia will be in the pen come play off time unless one of them turns it up a notch. Urias or Hill will be the 4th starter. I hope it is Hill. I like his competitive nature. That would leave Urias for the pen and make the pen stronger. Good day to be a Dodger. I love the farm kids.
Let’s wait until the bullpen blows another 3-4 games and see the comments about AF and the trade deadline! No way all three of Lux, May and Gonsolin are on playoff roster. Maybe one of the pitchers
Good points AC. Agree with you. I am going to make a statement that will probably be disagreed with, laughed at and ridiculed by almost everyone on this blog. Here it is….I would have liked the Dodgers to get Greinke. (Ducking)
You are not alone. I personally was not on the get Greinke bandwagon, but others have been and said so. I cannot remember exactly who it was, and I do not want to give credit to the wrong person, but it was brought up by someone and was agreed to by a few others. So it is not that out of line with what a lot of people were saying.
I brought up Greinke along with DeGrom but several people here told me no team would take on those huge money contracts especially Friedman. So I dropped the subject. I don’t know how the prospects the Astros gave up for Greinke compare to Dodger prospects. I would imagine the Dodgers would have had to trade at least 1 of my untouchables but I’m not sure. At the time I thought we could get him for little to nothing as far as prospects are concerned because of taking on that huge money contract so that’s why I brought up his name.
I was on the “get Grienke” bandwagon and even though the Dodgers were one of the 15 teams on his no trade list, I believe he would have waived that and gladly been traded to the Dodgers.
His contract, while exorbitant at the time he signed with the Diamondbacks is now “in line” with other big game pitchers and with the Diamondbacks providing some salary relief he would have been a good get. With the possibility Ryu and Hill don’t come
Back next year and with just two years remaining on his contract it would have made sense now and into the near term future.
Let’s hope Gonsolin and May contribute and can both be big arm contributors in the post season
After beating Cole in the WS, he will come home and play with the hometown team next year.
This was an all in for Houston. If they do not win it all, Luhnow will get castigated by the hind-sighters. They lost their #3, #4, and #5 prospect. That was the Astros #2 position player and #2 and #3 pitcher. LAD comparable would be Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Tony Gonsolin. The Astros farm system has been decimated. While the player capital would have been steep for LAD, at least their top 2 (plus Smith) are on the rise while the Astros top 2 (Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley) are going backwards. The Astros now have three players with a MLB scouting grade of 50 or more. Their #4 has a scouting grade of 45. Comparatively, the Dodgers have 14 prospects with a 50 grade or higher.
Luhnow saw an opening and took it. In three months we will see whether he will be considered a genius or a moron.
Well, I think the Dodgers played on the elite bullpen pitchers, but none of them moved. The Pirates insisting on Gavin Lux was crazy. If I would have been the Pirates, I would have traded Vasquez straight up for Ruiz. How often do get you an opportunity to acquire a young switch hitting catcher who can hit? They’ll regret that. As to Bill Plaschke, he’s written similar columns in the past, criticizing the Dodgers for holding onto Cory Seager and Cody Bellinger. I was kind of hoping the Dodgers would pick up Chris Martin. Oh, well. As to Lux, ESPN analyst Keith Law called Lux an incredible talent who will be an all star second baseman for years. All things considered the Dodgers are in a great place moving forward. They have the pieces to win it all. They just have to perform.
I dont know about yall but im pretty excited about the debut of May this week!!
Regarding the Zach Greinke trade, no doubt it made Houston a better team against the rest of the league, but in my completely uneducated opinion, it made Houston more beatable by the Dodgers. He has pitched against us twice this year, giving up 11 runs in 9.2 innings. I haven’t checked the stats from previous years, but my impression is that we have traditionally hit ZG pretty hard since he left the chosen ones. I, for one, was cheering loudly when I heard about that trade yesterday.
The best way to look at the trade deadline is to understand who Andrew Friedman is. He is a value aggregator. He cultivates it. He collects it. He hordes it. As an investor, if you’re pursuing safe and long term growth, that’s the best strategy. After all, he is a former Wall Street guy, and if I’m socking away money in a 401k, there’s no one I’d want managing my money more than AF.
But is saving for retirement the best strategy in a competitive sports environment where the windows for winning at all are fleeting and transient? Even if you horde every prospect and carefully cultivate your long term success strategy, there are no guarantees the team continues to be in a position to make it to the playoffs year in and year out. The only constant is change, and, in the end, entropy rules the day.
AC has made the point that AF doesn’t value relief. I don’t think that’s it. I think they do value it for exactly what it’s worth. As several have pointed out already, and most of have come to realize, relief pitching is hard to predict, and therefore hard to value accurately. When a GM is doling out value to get value, relief pitchers are the volatile commodities of the baseball valuation world. They are the pork bellies, the orange juice futures, where a failed investment is one Florida cold snap away. Value aggregators look for market inefficiencies, but they also hate uncertainty.
The playoffs are uncertain. Anything can happen. AF banks on that and doesn’t want spend value to potentially increase odds in a small sample size. That’s a decent enough strategy if you’re the 2018 Dodgers and barely squeak into the playoffs, but if you’re the 2019 Dodgers and have the team of a lifetime and make the deliberate decision to go into the playoffs with a glaring weakness that you haven’t addressed, that’s an indication that the FO is content to sacrifice a WS to increase the odds they will continue to get to the WS. Gambling to increase your odds to win one year is not a sure bet. Neither is banking that you’ll continue to get there.
Lux for Vasquez is dumb, but the Braves got Green for crumbs. Not even a Nick Anderson? Inexplicable.
excellent analysis. Not that I agree with it all, but excellent analysis nonetheless!
Vegas doesn’t agree with you, patch. Their chance to win it all is almost dead even. We’ll be relevant for the next 10 years, I think.
Kudos to Ryu for his outing yesterday. He had been absolutely destroyed at Coors during his career. I think 95% of the people on this board are excited about Ruiz including me, however dealing from a position of strength and depth for the probably the best reliever in the game to shore up a suspect bullpen would not have been a dope fiend move. Including Lux and from some reports 3 of the top 4 prospects would have been a dope fiend move. Mark, I think you underestimate Smith. Even if he’s a .230 hitter and I think it’s probably close to .250 if he’s playing regularly, he’s going to be a strong .OBP guy. His bat speed isn’t as slow as Yeager’s nor is his swing as long.
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I’ve listened to AF. They pushed for elite guys like Vasquez and none of them moved. The Pirates will be sitting in last place this time next year and could have had Ruiz + who knows what else. They didn’t over pay for a guy like Diaz who was struggling or Giles who just got a cortisone shot in his elbow and has Jim Johnson written all over him. Will Smith wasn’t going to the Dodgers considering if the Giants win a Wild Card game they would be playing the Dodgers. I hope the Giants lose damn near every game they play the rest of the season.
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As for Greinke, it was a bold move for the Astros. Let’s see if it works out. I get it since most likely Cole will be a Padre or Angel next season if not a Dodger. They needed a starting pitcher badly. Their farm system was already somewhat depleted and now very much so other than Tucker. The Dodgers were not going to take on $50 plus million dollars and give up prospects for him. Plus, Greinke has LA on his no-trade list so it would have cost even more since he had stated that he wanted to stay in AZ. I predict he gets hammered in the playoffs playing in those bandboxes against the Yankees. The Dodgers have lit him up quite a few times too.
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I look forward to watching May tomorrow. After listening to Freidman yesterday I’m starting to question whether or not we will see Lux in LA this year. They’re going to have to get Kike, Gyorko and CT3 up to speed when they return. He’s left-handed. They may not want to start his clock or move people off the roster. I hope we see Lux’s audition soon. I thought it was a sure thing until I listened to AF yesterday. The Dodgers may just spend the last 60 days figuring out to how to make the current roster work best for the post-season. Bringing up Lux to take someone’s spot may be a much tougher call than sending Austin Barnes down and hopefully getting Pollock out of CF.
I agree with your take on Lux. I think Lux gets the Will Smith treatment of last year. Meaning he will be with the team getting acclimated to ML, but will not be on the roster. I do not believe that AF is as worried about starting the clock in September as much as he is concentrating as to what the best 13 man position roster will look like? There are more 2B options than any other position. Who will get that spot? CT3, Kike’, Negron, Gyorko, Muncy, combination? The Dodgers have a need for starting pitching right now so May is needed. With May needing a spot on the 40, and no spots remaining, I am assuming that Scott Alexander goes on the 60 day. His last game was June 5. He is out at least 60 days.
Lux will get every opportunity to win the 2B job next year. If the Dodgers are concerned about starting the clock, he will start at OKC for the first 2-3 weeks so they get one more year of control and he becomes a Super 2 guy. I am not sure that is as much of an issue for LAD as it is for other teams. If the Dodgers believe he can manage ML baseball, he will start opening day.
As an aside, with respect to Yadi Alvarez, why is he not on the 60 day IL and off the 40 man? I am very happy for Brock Stewart getting a great opportunity with Toronto, but why was it necessary to DFA him instead of doing something with Alvarez? He is supposedly on the 7 day IL, and was placed on the IL on April 14.
I was going to ask you about Alvarez and Toles for that matter. If neither are even with the ball club why aren’t they on either the 60 day IL or some restricted list? I too think Alexander goes on the 60 Day IL. I hoping May’s success moves these guys who are suppose to come out of the pen for the post-season to the pen sooner rather than later. I don’t care about Maeda’s contract. He signed it. There wasn’t a gun to his head and if he’s getting moved to the pen it is because he hasn’t thrown well enough consistently enough as a starter. To count on starters out of the pen in the post season is a risk. I feel you minimize that risk by getting them accustomed to that role sooner rather than later so that Roberts doesn’t wind up with too many guys unavailable for big spots because their bodies aren’t used to relief pitching.
I think that the comments made above by Mark Timmons and others above are heartening. Maybe we do have the most amazing group of prospects ready to come in and take over baseball, though our farm system is not rated in the top three by those who do these things. I do know from many years as a Dodgers fan, that we tend to overrate our prospects. Maybe most fan bases do, but I think we are high in that category. If we just look at our more recent highly touted prospects, we see that the highly touted Pederson has devolved to a .240 hitter who can’t hit lefties. Bellinger looks like he is real star. Seager, supposed to be one of the greats, has been hampered by injuries, and we might actually lose him in a year or two to free agency. Buehler looks like a potential great pitcher. Urias suffered a major injury, and has not reached anything close to what his potential was said to be. Stripling looks like a #5 starter. Verdugo looks pretty good, but has his flaws. Then there are the ones we ended up letting go, like Zach Lee.
There are other franchises which do not do things the way we do. Some of them are certainly inferior to us, but then there are the ones which win coveted titles, which we do not. Houston once again decided to take a risk, gave up three high-end minor leaguers to obtain Greinke and Sanchez. Atlanta picked up three relievers, two of whom are pretty good. Chicago got a fine hitter in Castellanos, for not much. Washington landed three second-tier relievers. Even the Mets got a good starter. We got no high-end relievers, our biggest need, and no starters. How is that?
I would contend that most of it has to do with the ownership. We are run by a hedge fund, which clearly seems more concerned with the bottom line than some of the other franchises. We seem obsessed with staying under the luxury tax threshold, even though we have more than enough money and make more than enough profits to be able to go over it to some extent. We are preternaturally averse to picking up long -term contracts for expensive free agent stars, or in trading any of our high-end prospects. This all goes with the relative (as compared to assets and profits) penny pinching ways of the Guggenheim ownership. Hedge funds are primarily concerned with their overall bottom line, they own many corporate entities. They did not come into this as big Dodgers fans, but as businessmen looking for another profitable asset. I would actually have preferred that we had gotten an owner who was very rich, and who loved the Dodgers, and wanted to do whatever was reasonable to win multiple titles. We have an ownership which keeps raising ticket prices, and trying to lower payroll. This will also manifest itself in our losing some of these young stars to free agency, to be replaced by new cost-controlled prospects.
Any fan of a pro franchise is subject to the agenda of the ownership. It just seems pretty obvious that the Dodgers owners, while they would like to win, and certainly need each year to be pretty good, so as to maintain the attendance, are not driven to win titles like the ownership of the Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, and now maybe Braves and others. So every decision is seen through the prism of “Is it cost-effective?,” rather than, “Will this get us over the top?” And that is why we always “miss” on the big free agents, such as Scherzer and Harper, or the semi-free agents like Stanton; and why other teams just seem to ask too much from us for any trade deadline player who is not a rental, while other franchises manage to make key deals and pick up long-term contracts.
So we might win the title anyway, but we needed a top reliever, and we got absolutely none, nor did we get a starting pitcher who could have helped us this year and into the future. This has happened enough in the last few years, to clearly make it part of a pattern. The Dodgers ownership is what they are, and we shouldn’t let ourselves be deluded that it is anything else, or that any of this is ever going to change. Frankly, and I know that this will be disagreed with or even mocked by some, I would prefer that the hedge fund take its billions in profits, and sell the Dodgers to someone who wants to go all-out to win titles, not let a few other franchises outbid our out-risk us at the key moments, and then get to celebrate the titles, while we show endless reruns of the glory of 1988. The incredibly loyal fan base here deserves more than that. It’s not just about this year, or the next, it’s about my sense that every offseason, every trade deadline, we are going to be cautious and overly prudent, and let the other franchises make the big headlines and grab the big names. I used to love the Hot Stove League, but our ownership makes it boring now, all about seeing how much payroll we can shed, and trading minor league contracts. The Dodgers should be the best franchise in baseball, and not just in terms of having a really nice stadium.
Are you related to AC William?
William, if the Dodgers were sold to a Dodger loving owner, would you retain the services of AF and the FO?
Just stop with the Penny Pinching BS. At least wait until the Dodgers drop out of the top 5 (Currently 4th highest payroll, just under the Red Sox, Cubs and Yankees).
Or, maybe we wait until there’s a clear need that can be filled with a free agent acquisition.
Or how about we wait until all the money from guys that aren’t playing for us comes off the books (a cool $50 Million this year).
This is NOT a penny pinching team. This is a team that’s trying to spend wisely.
I’m one of the first to call this deadline a failure, then after I had time to think about it, I can see the following.
None of the best closers were traded. Smith, Diaz, Vazquez and Giles all remain on their teams. Greene was the only true closer traded, there were a lot of concerns about him and his FIP not anywhere close to he ERA suggesting regression. Nonetheless, we lost out to Altanta on him who had a bigger need for bullpen help and has a very good farm system.
None of the other guys are necessarily better than the guys we have.
About three years ago, Bill Shaikin of the Times had an interview with one of the lesser Dodgers owners, whose name I forget, but would recognize if I saw it. He told Shaikin that he was waiting for the payroll to get to somewhere in the middle of the franchises. I was appalled at this, and even wrote to Shaikin about it. The article caused a bit of a stir, but most forgot about it. Let’s see, if the Dodgers shed $50 million in payroll, and then pick up $20 million more, that will get them to the median. To even be considering that as an L.A. ownership is disgraceful, in my view. How much money do they need? Oh, yes, enough to satisfy the fund’s shareholders, who want maximum return on investment, many of whom do not live in LA, and do not care one whit about the Dodgers, nor whether many fans cannot even see the games on TV. And the bigger investors were promised that they would not be paying any luxury tax for the next five years. That’s my version of penny-pinching.
Todd Boehly
Thanks!
The team is not run by a hedge fund.
But at least you not only started with an untruth, but compounded that by some clever omissions.
Interesting you don’t mention the analytics budget (among highest in MLB) nor the front office expenses, not the money spent and to be spent on the stadium.
Question about trade deadline going forward. If Dodgers bring up rookies (May, Gonsolin, etc) to the big club and don’t have players with options. What will happen to any player that is DFAed or place on waivers? Previously a trade would be worked out. what happens now?
As far as I know, if no one claimed the player on waivers, he would have to be released and could then sign with any MLB team or any minor league team. He could not be traded since the July deadline has passed.
MLB Trade Rumors had a very complete article online today about the various strategies a team can use under the new rules in order to try to add players now that we’re in August. Here’s a link:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/so-what-can-teams-do-in-august.html
I have waited to think about all of this before commenting. I understand’s Friedman’s points – it takes two to trade and if the parties can’t agree about value then trades aren’t possible. And none of the big name relievers moved. There were too many buyers, not enough sellers and too many teams with bad bullpens this year, so it was a seller’s market.
I get it.
But – here’s Houston Mitchell of the Times this morning:
“But here’s the problem the Dodgers face, and they often seem oblivious to this: Fans are tired of not winning the World Series. They are tired of watching ticket prices skyrocket with no title to soothe their wallet. They are tired of watching the team tiptoe up to the luxury tax line without crossing it while also announcing $100-million stadium redesigns and, again, rising ticket prices.
So, what the Dodgers did Wednesday is set themselves up to where the only way to please fans this season is to win the World Series. Don’t really want to improve the team? You better win the World Series. Don’t want to make the big trade? You better win the World Series. Have a team that can’t be seen on TV by most people? You better win the World Series. Think people are satisfied just making the playoffs every year? Think again. How many Buffalo Bills fans are satisfied with making it to the Super Bowl multiple times and not winning it?
Better yet, how many Atlanta Braves fans are satisfied with being the best team in baseball throughout the 1990s and only winning one World Series? Not many. And they actually won a World Series.”
I couldn’t say it any better – winning a 7th straight Division is great – but winning the Series is what we need.
I had to comment on Mark’s statement from yesterday that Keibert Ruiz is the next Roy Campanella. Campy was playing in the Negro Leagues when he was only 15! He won 3 MVPs and is in the Hall of Fame. Bill James says that he is the 3rd best catcher in MLB history (behind Berra and Bench) even though he has the fewest plate appearances of any position player in the Hall of Fame. In his 10 year career, he hit 242 HR, had 861 RBI, and had more BB (533) than K (501). Plus he had to deal with the same problems that Jackie Robinson had to deal with as the 6th black player in MLB.
Ruiz may or may not become a good major leaguer – he will never be Roy Campanella.
Hey Rick, don’t say anything about Ruiz, his bother comes on this site!
Ruiz is a fantastic catching PROSPECT, that isn’t good enough to pry away Diaz or Vazquez. Apparently other GMs want to see a little more than BB>K.
Ruiz was offered up for Vazquez, plus two other prospects that we don’t know about. So, it’s safe to assume the front office doesn’t think he’s going to be the next Roy Campanella.
Hell, he may not even be anything more than Will Smith’s backup until he’s ultimately traded. Will Smith’s defense is elite. Keibert’s is “Advanced for his age”.
Friedman said that Will Smith is gonna be a Hall of Famer. Not sure this source can be trusted, but let’s go with it.
https://www.thinkbluela.com/2019/07/andrew-friedman-may-have-nailed-it/
MT said that Verdugo was gonna be Tony Gwynn, he’s not quite Andre Etheir, so don’t take his boasts too seriously. Andre Ethier was a fine ballplayer so this is no knock on Verdugo, who will never be Tony Gwynn.
59, that’s an interesting comp. Will Verdugo be an Ethier type player? Overall, maybe they’re a similar level talent? I think Verdugo a better hitter, Andre more power, Verdugo better arm, Verdugo better D? Ethier was a 2 time all star, so he was a very nice player to have on the team. Not elite, but def a good player. Andre had a knack for big hits.
If our stars are Belly and Seager, then maybe Verdugo and Smith are more on the next level tier?
The context of that statement was that AF said Smith was a Hall Of Fame catcher defensively. He did not say he was a future hall of famer.
2D2, I already qualified that I don’t know how trustworthy the source is. You can read for yourself that it doesn’t say defensively. I’ve never heard anyone say “That guy’s a HOFer defensively”.
At the risk of redundancy and despite Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s reluctance in re-calling Smith (having already optioned him back to OKC twice since May 27), the early returns on his ridiculously bold prediction when pitchers and catchers reported for spring training on February 13, 2019, is now officially (and clearly) in motion.
On that very pleasant Wednesday morning in the executive lounge at Camelback Ranch in Glendale, AZ, Friedman proclaimed that a then 23-year-old Will Smith, who had received a non-roster invitation to major league spring training camp, is – and I quote – “Will Smith is a Hall of Fame catcher.” Friedman didn’t say an All-Star catcher, a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger catcher, he said: “…a Hall of Fame catcher.
59, please forgive me I didn’t mean any disrespect, nor did I intend to get you gingered up in any way. I should have looked up AF’s comment before I responded to you. What Friedman actually said was: “I think he could contend for a Gold Glove defensively. It’s just about getting him to that point offensively where there’s more consistency that we think is in there.” This was from a Bill Plunkett article back in February. I misspoke and I’m sorry.
Where had the dodgers offer to the pirates been reported?
Morosi says Ruiz and May would have got it done. Who knows if that is accurate but that’s what he’s stating on MLB radio today. Others have said the Pirates were holding out for Lux.
That’s not what the offered!
The poster above implied he/she knows what the offer was. I presume that’s because he/she read it somewhere (hopefully not on that stupid Thinking site) and I would like to know where.
I’m a “he” for future reference. I don’t remember which site. I read a lot of shit about the trades yesterday. Sorry.
Thanks!
If you come across it again, please share.
So one year and that’s all I get for a comparison? Again, your reading comprehension is not so good. I said he would be Tony Gwynn-esque, not that he would be Tony Gwynn.
Alex Verdugo is a year younger than Andre Ethier was when he was a rookie with the Dodgers.
Actually, they are pretty comparable, although Alex already has more HR and doubles than Either had all year! Alex’s power will come, like Andre’s did and in time, you will be forced to say that Andre can’t carry Alex’s jock.
The biggest difference is that Andre had a career BA of .233 against LHP, while Alex hits them to the tune of .311. Rookie-for-Rookie, Alex will obliterate Andre’s stats and watch and learn: He will be Gwynn-esque!
In case you don’t know, “esque” means: n the style of; resembling.
Why do I have to keep explaining this stuff?
My reading comprehension is as bad as your memory or maybe as outlandish as your proclamations, but more likely as poor as your sense of humor, which is why you have to keep explaining this stuff…
You can pretend that you’re differentiating something by over explaining what “esque” means. But, when you say “this guy” is gonna be the next “Insert HOFer here” and then try to back down with semantics, it isn’t a good look.
When I think of Tony Gwynn, I think of a guy that almost hit 400 and was the owner of 8 batting titles and hit over 350 7 times and stole a bunch of bases early in his career. That may sound like Alex to you, but I’m not buying it.
When I think of Campy, I think of a guy that had a cannon for an arm, could run the bases, hit for average and power. The ONLY thing KBEAR has in common with Campy so far is the ability to draw walks at a higher rate than he strikes out.
With that said, I will beat you to the punch and declare Will Smith the next Johnny Bench. Because Smith is gonna hit 260 – 280 with Power and throw out 35% of baserunners while being an elite defensive catcher. And he will be clutch! Or as you say it Bench-esque.
But I NEVER said Verdugo was going to be the next Tony Gwynn. Here’s what I said (repeatedly):
https://ladodgertalk.com/2017/07/31/what-value-do-other-teams-place-on-dodger-prospects/
https://ladodgertalk.com/2017/12/31/why-the-dodgers-dont-have-to-do-much/
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/05/09/dont-worry-about-a-thing/
https://ladodgertalk.com/2019/05/20/i-was-wrong-about-alex-verdugo/
I also said it yesterday: Gwynn-esque!
Comprehend?
I said that all in context. Now, let’s look at the context of why I said Roy is Kaybear. Idaho Al had just said that “We may have our Roy Campanella catcher in Will Smith.” My point was not that Kaybear would be better or equal to Roy, it was in comparison to Will Smith. I think Ruiz will be better than Smith – A Lot Better!
Do I think he will be the equal of Campy? I doubt it, but he also might be “Gwynn-esque.”
Is anyone unhappy about the play of Verdugo? I can’t imagine a better rookie season for him. I was luke warm about him. MJ said he would be one of the best hitters on the team. I thought she was pulling rabbits out of her hat, but she was right. Verdugo has done a lot to impress me and he should improve next year as he learns the ropes. Another solid starter from the farm.
My last 2 cents on the non-trade deadline, with the caveat that 90% of Dodger of Dodger fans and reporters feel the ONLY current weakness on this 2019 team is the bullpen:
If the Dodgers win the World Series in 2019, Andrew Friedman will be hailed as a genius for not over reacting and overpaying for a reliever, and Andrew Friedman will have in his hands a real shot at at dynasty. A team with elite youth like Verdugo Bellinger Seager Smith Buehler Urias, flexible payroll, and a top 5 farm?? Look out MLB!!
If the Dodgers lose the at anytime during October, BUT are losing games because the stars and the offense just didn’t show up, we’ll all be disappointed and frustrated. Perhaps some changes are in order. Perhaps JT and Kenley really have aged, perhaps Bellinger folded in October again, perhaps the kids Verdugo and Smith looked lost, or perhaps our starters just had a bad week. It would mean maybe we need to tweak something and/or get some new guys in here.
If we lose in the playoffs, but the bullpen is fine, then really nobody is going to blame Friedman.
However, if the Dodgers lose at anytime during October, and that series is lost because the bullpen, like the last 2 World Series, imploded more than once, then Andrew Friedman should rightfully get 100% of the blame. To have perhaps the best Dodger team since 1985 (the 88 team got hot, but definitely wasn’t our best team the last 30-40 years), with only 1 weakness, and not do anything about it??? It’d be unforgivable, and fans would let him have it if the bullpen is giving games away. 90% of the fans wanted the bullpen upgraded, and it would have meant that 90% of us were correct, and Friedman and the 10% who think our bullpen is just fine were wrong. And Friedman’s unwillingness to do what it takes to get a reliever will rightfully take the blame.
But for now, let’s see how things settle out. Perhaps the kid pitchers really do have that lights out stuff that can be utilized in October. Buehler couldn’t do it in 2017, but who knows, maybe Gonsolin and/or May can do it this year. Joe Kelly is definitely finding his groove, and that is a gigantic bonus to the bullpen.
Chris Negron may not be in LA long, but while he is there, he may be the fastest Dodger.
I could not have said it better Bobby. No one wants to over pay just like no one wants to go to the World Series three years in a row and fall short. I know it’s not a guarantee that we would win the World Series with a better bullpen but it certainly wouldn’t have hurt our chances. I hope we will find out what the sticking point was with Pittsburgh but we may never know for sure. I wonder what the Vegas Odds would have been if the deal had gotten done? Maybe we should have started earlier in our bullpen search or maybe that would not of even helped. AF has to roll the dice by bringing up Dustin May now . He is hoping not to lose his rockstar status. I am hoping it will all come together in 2019. Just feeling a little short again. Also, I hope the Zack Greinke deal backfires in Houston.
Losing 3 WS in a row would suck, but there are about 25 teams who would love to say they were in that situation. I was big on them going after The Nightmare and push come to shove if I were in AF’s shoes I may have caved and gave them May even though I stated I wouldn’t trade Lux or May who knows I’m not in his shoes. Who knows what was really on the table. (Morosi says Ruiz and May would have got it done.) However, I sure as hell haven’t forgot the Fox or McCourt ownership era’s . Fans kind of suck these days. If the Dodgers don’t win it all I will go into my usual winter depression and snap out of it thankful that I have a quality franchise that puts a winning product on the field every year.
The Dodgers made a significant offer to Greinke and if not for a last second offer of one or two additional years by AZ, Greinke probably would have been a Dodger. Well, it looks like AZ didn’t have to pay those extra years and instead got added depth by trading Greinke.
In a last-minute trade deadline stunner, the Astros announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handers Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas, first baseman Seth Beer and infielder Joshua Rojas. Martin (who is recovering from Tommy John surgery), Bukauskas and Beer are arguably Houston’s three best non-Kyle Tucker and non-Forrest Whitley prospects.
For those in the know, what’s the latest word on Jesen Therrien?
He is 23 months removed from TJ Surgery and no evidence he is throwing. Like Morgan Cooper, he is a ghost and the Dodgers don’t say jack!
Like Andrew Toles, we have no clue…
Give Friedman a call and tell him we need info on all those guys. He’s not doing anything today. I’m sure he’ll take your call.
So raise your hand if we should have given up May and Ruiz for Vazquez or stop complaining!
#1: We do not know if that was really the deal. I have it on pretty good authority it was Smith and Lux or May.
#2:
In case you missed it above, here it is again:
So one year and that’s all I get for a comparison? Again, your reading comprehension is not so good. I said he would be Tony Gwynn-esque, not that he would be Tony Gwynn.
Alex Verdugo is a year younger than Andre Ethier was when he was a rookie with the Dodgers.
Actually, they are pretty comparable, although Alex already has more HR and doubles than Either had all year! Alex’s power will come, like Andre’s did and in time, you will be forced to say that Andre can’t carry Alex’s jock.
The biggest difference is that Andre had a career BA of .233 against LHP, while Alex hits them to the tune of .311. Rookie-for-Rookie, Alex will obliterate Andre’s stats and watch and learn: He will be Gwynn-esque!
In case you don’t know, “esque” means: in the style of; resembling.
Why do I have to keep explaining this stuff?
How about your comparison of Keibert Ruiz to Roy Campanella?
#1 – Campy could not hit LH, Ruiz can.
#2 – Campy hit 9 HR as a rookie at age 26 – Ruiz is only 21 so I have nothing to compare.
#3 – Ruiz is considerably bigger than Campy.
Beyond that, I have to wait 5 years!
Campy was playing in the Negro Leagues when he was only 15! He won 3 MVPs and is in the Hall of Fame. Bill James says that he is the 3rd best catcher in MLB history (behind Berra and Bench) even though he has the fewest plate appearances of any position player in the Hall of Fame. In his 10 year career, he hit 242 HR, had 861 RBI, and had more BB (533) than K (501). Plus he had to deal with the same problems that Jackie Robinson had to deal with as the 6th black player in MLB.
That’s a good point DodgerRick!
Mark, why don’t you compare Campy’s age 21 Negro League season to KBEAR’s this year in the minors (should be a fair comp), and tell us all about the similarities you see between the two? LOL
So, you can’t find anything in common, but you are using him as a comp? Okay, now I can see the Verdugo Gwynn thing.
Just to let you in on a little secret. Most people choose comps where there is a lot in common. No wonder you think MY comprehension is bad.
And did you really post the same thing twice? Did you really think it was that important that everyone needs knows what “esque” means? “IN CASE THEY MISSED IT”?????
DODGERS ADD LHP ADAM KOLAREK TO ROSTER
LHP CALEB FERGUSON OPTIONED TO TRIPLE-A
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced that they have added left-handed pitcher Adam Kolarek to the active roster and optioned left-handed pitcher Caleb Ferguson to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Kolarek, 30, was obtained yesterday from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor league outfielder Niko Hulziser. Prior to being traded to Los Angeles, he appeared in 54 games for the Rays, recording a 5-4 record with a 3.95 ERA (19 ER/43.1 IP) and 36 strikeouts. In parts of three Major League seasons, he is a combined 6-3 with a 4.19 ERA (40 ER/86.0 IP) and 59 strikeouts, while limiting left-handed batters to a .209 (29-for-139) batting average. The southpaw was originally drafted by the New York Mets in 11th round of the 2010 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Maryland.
Ferguson, 23, has appeared in 27 games for the Dodgers, going 0-1 with a 5.88 ERA (17 ER/26.0 IP) and 32 strikeouts. The Ohio native is in his second season with the Dodgers, compiling a 7-3 record with a 4.32 ERA (36 ER/75.0 IP) and 91 strikeouts. He was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 38th round of the 2014 First Year Player Draft.
There’s gonna be a lot of that in the coming weeks. Up, down, up, down.
Somebody teach that kid a third pitch and make him a starter! Any two of those four was too much for Vazquez! Anybody disagree? Especially Lux!
A reliever only needs two great pitches. That’s what Caleb needs to focus on.. and controlling them. That’s the key!
Colletti mentioned last night on DodgerTalk (Last take on the trade deadline) that the Dodgers actually have an extra hurdle these days when trying to find a trade partner. He said don’t be fooled by all the surface talk with other teams, most GM’s are ruthless when it comes to making a deal, and with the success the Dodgers have had the last few years in dealing prospects in trades, the other teams want to make us hurt when they deal with us. Pretty cool, he said that in all his years in baseball, he has never seen an organization as talented top to bottom as this years Dodgers. He went on to say that it is a tribute to the Dodgers development culture in the minor leagues that so many of these guys that get called up(Beatty, Verdugo, Smith,Gonsolin) are game ready, and immediately produce. He said that it just doesn’t happen these days in baseball, and also mentioned the Dodgers are on their way to becoming one of the younger teams in MLB, with guys like Bellinger, Verdugo, Bueller, Seager, all 25 or younger and not even in their prime years yet.Our window isn’t getting smaller, it’s getting bigger. I know Freidman rolled the dice a bit by going in house with his bullpen, but he has 2 months to figure it out. Looking forward to seeing GingerGaard on Friday. Great time to be a Dodger fan.
That’s awesome Roger. I love listening to Ned. I’m a fellow paisan, so he reminds me of my uncles from back east. Friedman has done a fantastic job, so when I calmed the F down yesterday, I figured he couldn’t make a trade without taking it up the sewage line.
We will never know what the real offers were, so we can only speculate. It’s easy for us to say, give this or that, but we don’t know what the hell we’re doing. I’m just hoping that Sadler, Gonsolin, Kelly, Jansen, Maeda, Baez and May save us. Throw a couple of lefties in there are we got our bullpen.
Stop worrying!
Silly question: Asdrubal Cabrera was released, if the Dodgers take it, could he be in play offs? There are no trades, but you can still get players via waivers, right? Of course they would be the last team to choose a player for having the best record, but my question is whether it is still possible to get another player? I’m not yet familiar with the new rule.
We are the last team to pick because we have the best record. This was explained earlier in the comments today.
We are the last NL team not last team. You clear through your own league first.
Not anymore, covered earlier in the comments.
An interesting take on the trade deadline from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic (excerpts)
“The game on the field in 2019 — from defensive shifts to platoon-based lineups to third-time-through-the-order removals of starting pitchers — is all about playing the odds.
The game off the field, with risk-averse, value-obsessed clubs all using the same analytically driven playbooks in free agency and trades, also is becoming little more than a math equation.
In both aspects, the life is getting sucked out of the sport.”
“But the sport suffers from an overriding lack of urgency. The deadline needs to be as juiced as the baseball. Instead, too many teams place inordinate emphasis on the future, blathering on about discipline and process. Why should a GM play for today when he can delay the evaluation of his performance until some distant tomorrow?
Each market is different, each situation is different, and not every team, as we shall see, acts alike. Still, many of today’s GMs are procrastinators, not dealmakers. They overanalyze, seek 100th percentile outcomes in every transaction, fear their team getting ranked No. 30 in Baseball America’s organization rankings more than they fear last place. While some are downright afraid to act boldly — or heaven forbid, with the emotion of a diehard fan — they essentially are products of the game’s economic system.”
“Still, when even high-revenue behemoths fall victim to what one old-school executive calls a “prospects over parades” mentality, something is inherently wrong with the sport.
The same groupthink afflicts free agency, in which teams are not necessarily engaging in collusion, but simply valuing players the same way. Agents no longer are willing to accept that teams will not spend lavishly on most free agents. Sellers in the trade market no longer are willing to accept that buyers will not overpay. The resulting industry-wide paralysis is a turnoff to fans.”
Sad but true. They should bump the trade deadline back to Aug. 15th, that way more teams know how when to sell and when to buy.
A lot to think about there. Makes sense to me
Me, too.
Well said. Remember how in the movie “Moneyball,” A’s manager Art Howe argues with GM Billy Beane about how best to evaluate players. Beane is a baseball genius, but I could identify with Howe’s position. There is something about old-time scouting, and the eye test, as against complex metrics studied by technology people. No doubt that the metrics have been powerful in various ways, such as the defensive shifts. But if the game becomes too statistical, it loses its appeal, which is that all of us remember playing some version of the game on playgrounds, when we just had fun hitting and catching the ball.. Actually, if they ever do go to robot umpires, I may decide to give up following something which is meant to be an athletic contest with imperfect flesh and blood people playing and umpiring, not something which may as well be completely played on a computer by virtual reality figures. And of course one of the problems with turning any aspect of life into something run by computers, is that virtually everyone will have the same computer models, and thus come out with the same results, and do everything the same way.
I think fans have always been aware of basic stats as they watched the game. We know who has the high batting average, who is competing for the home run title, who has the RBIs. If stat geeks win the war that is going on that says those stats are meaningless and some complicated stats we can’t easily keep track of wins, this will take some of the fun away from the bulk of fans.
Electronically called strikes would still have a home plate umpire that would get the signal and fans at the game would not know the difference.
I read an article today by Rosenthal and though it was a bunch of BS. All of the teams are fiscally sound right now. Should they be making “dope fiend moves” just so writers have something to write about. There were over 35 relief pitchers traded, Bauer and Stroman got moved too and then Grienke, Castellanos and others. I’m sick of Rosenthal and other sports writers belly-aching about the game. Maybe there would be less negativity if they spent more time talking about positive things and the the great players. Why are we talking about pitch clock when its a hand full of players who are slow? Sports writers who probably should find new employment as far I’m concerned. Same thing with these stupid extra inning rule complaints. Less than 2% get to 12 innings. Less than 1% get to 18 innings. These writers act like its every game. They want to be doing something other than their jobs so we need gimmicks to finish games.
That’s how they think they have to be in order to remain relevant. No writers get inside info these days. It’s all guess work and personal views. FOX has changed the whole landscape of journalism and the culture of factual reportage. They will make shit up.
Today’s lineup:
Pollock
Muncy (2b)
JT
Belly
Muncy’s fat twin brother (1b)
Will the Thrill
Verdugo
Negron (ss)
Kersh
I gathered the troops around the dining table about 45 min’s before deadline and had them fill out their trade thoughts n wishes. Cells not allowed till evening.
7 of 10 had no significant trades…1 had Vasquez for not nearly enough and Greene popped up once. Not bad..
258 comments!! Epic.. Never having the opportunity to go to Israel and sse the Second Temple AKA The Wailing Wall,
MT was a force to reckon with. Wailing, the gnashing of teeth Angst, it was all there..
The only glaring flaw was comparing Ruiz to Campy..Why not Posey and the guy from the STL??
I know its your gig but really??
Go back and consider the context in which I said that.
It was hyperbole in response to a comment – I don’t believe that. but it would be nice if it happened.
Campy had a 10 year career. If Ruiz doesn’t get to L.A. for another two years that means we might have another 12 years or so to see how wrong (or right) MT was with his comment. It might become evident in the first few years that Mark was way off base, but if it’s at all close we might not have a true comparison until about 2030. Considering the age of a number of the commenters here, some of us may never find out how right or wrong he was.
The Dodgers will cease using Joc Pederson at first base as a regular option. It’ll be Cody Bellinger back there on days when Max Muncy is needed at 2B. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Pederson “worked his tail off,” but it didn’t work out.
Well, it’s about time. WTF does “It’ll be Cody Bellinger back there on days when Max Muncy is needed at 2B” mean? Is that a telling sentence, or is it his way of saying that Bellinger will be back there when Joc plays LF against right handers?
It seems straightforward to me that Belli and White are the platoon at 1B with Muncy at 2B full time (Cody in RF when not “in the platoon”)? Who the hell else is going to play second? We have 3 guys that play second on the DL, one in the minors (The Next Joe Morgan, or Joe Morgan-esque, whatever you prefer) and Negron on the bench to handle SS in case Seager gets hurt or needs a rest.
Please don’t tell me they’re not gonna play Negron, unless they have to. I can only imagine what they come up with here. Two Coors Homers and now we have to plan around this guy? Is he the next CT3, CT3-esque, or CT3v2?
Hey 59, Negron leads the team in homers…………………………………..for the last 2 games. Can’t bench him now. He’s on a roll.
Kolarek should be very happy with the new first base situation since he’s a groundball pitcher. For that matter I guess the whole staff will be happy about this.
Well MT, at least you got the title for today right! How does that Cody gonna play 1B crow taste? I took that to the bank like you said. Is it still in the bank? Is it covered by FDIC?
He has played there a few times this year and will do so some more, but he like RF better and in my opinion, he has more value in RF. I think most baseball people would agree. Right now, with Hernandez, Taylor and Freeze on the IL, Muncy has to play more 2B, and if they want to scrap the JOC at 1B experiment, then Cody will play some 1B. Negron is simply “depth” and barring injury, neither him nor White will be on the playoff roster.
I’ll go you one further. Doc has said that Cody might be at 1B for the playoffs, I can’t see that happening barring injury.
Yeah Mark, what about this article?
https://ladodgertalk.com/2017/02/15/the-next-tony-gwynn/
Who wrote that headline? Way to Cherry Pick all the articles except this one.
I am not sure what the genesis of all this is. I kid Mark for some of the stuff he says, and he gives it right back. None of us are right all the time. I always remember Mark saying Gwynn-esque. I am not sure that your pick of the article is going to help your argument. Here is exactly what was said about Alex and Gwynn.
“
“
Mark was clear that it wasn’t he who was saying that Verdugo reminded him of Gwynn, but it was a friend of his in baseball. Mark did say that he thinks Alex is a guy who COULD win a batting title someday. He is not the only one I have heard that from. I remember one of the baseball talent evaluators say the exact same thing. Mark did not say he would, he said he could. And in this article that you are referring to, it was not Mark making the comparison. Now maybe you think Mark is making up his friend and it is really him that is making the comparison. I have no desire to get into any of those conspiracy theories.
Let’s discuss Lee Harvey Oswald.
It takes a real passion to put a blog up every day and open yourself up to daily criticism for the sake of creating discussion. I though Mark was a blowhard when I first found this site until I started reading and participating in the comments section. Mark is true blue, opinionated, sometimes wrong and a bit of an AF apologist, but knows his shit too.
What about that article? I asked the question “Could he be the next Tony Gwynn?”
Never said he would, but asked the question. You pick headlines for many purposes, sometimes shock value.
By the way, scouts frequently equate a prospect with another MLB player, so as to draw a comparison. From then on I called him “esque.” My words are plain and clear – you are trying to put words in my mouth with a headline.
No Validity! Beef up your argument!
Okay Mark, you’re right as always.
How could I possibly think that you said Verdugo would be the next Tony Gwynn when you posted an article “The Next Tony Gwynn?” and another one “The Next Tony Gwynn? Could be…” both referring to Verdugo. I must be crazy for reading into that “hyperbole”. Then to say calling someone “Then Next Tony Gwynn” is so different than someone is “Gwynn-esque”. Kind of like Pink and Hot Pink are different colors. Sheesh!
Yep, you wrote the headline, but I put words into YOUR mouth. What are you CNN?
I like your “If the glove don’t fit, you must acquit” defense. What the hell? It worked for OJ.
Being friedman last year,has he been offered a extension.
I don’t know, but if he wants to maximize his value, he will wait until after the World Series to negotiate. If the Dodgers win, Walter will just hand him the checkbook. If he doesn’t, then they will talk and he will sign another 5-year deal.
Back to a healthy Dodger Team:
If a RH is pitching, the Lineup could be this:
1. Pederson LF
2. Muncy 2B
3. Turner 3B
4. Bellinger RF
5. Seager SS
6. Beaty 1B
7. Verdugo CF
8. Smith C
Against LHP:
1. Pollock CF
2. Muncy 2B
3. Turner 3B
4. Bellinger RF
5. Freese 1B
6. Seager SS
7. Verdugo LF
8. Smith C
If healthy, I cannot see how the Dodgers are better with Bellinger at 1B in any scenario.
Mark
Bingo! on the 8 guys in both scenarios.
Will D. Smith: I don’t even know where to begin.
Babe Ruth is dead. Will Smith lives!
Who is this guy!!
Just curious……..how is that Will Smith and team chemistry thing working out?
Will Fing Smith. He’s already what Grandal wasn’t. Clutch!
So that’s why AF won’t trade his top prospects! Don’t need a bullpen with Smith on your team!
Tell you what: I don’t know if we’ll win the World Series or not, but we sure can churn out some serious talent!
And they just signed the #1 player in the Mexican development league. 18-year old LHP Octavio Becerra.
Magic number is 37
Dodgers Notes: Pederson, Gyorko
By Connor Byrne | August 2, 2019 at 1:21am CDT
The Dodgers’ Joc Pederson first base experiment is over for at least the time being, manager Dave Roberts told Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Thursday. The outfielder has picked up 20 appearances at first this year, and during that 149-inning span, Pederson has made six errors and posted minus-3 Defensive Runs Saved. Right fielder Cody Bellinger will now shift to first against right-handed starters, while Pederson will take left, A.J. Pollock center and Alex Verdugo right in those situations.