Through the first four years of the Andrew Friedman Era as the President/General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, I have come to realize that there is a “Process”… one from which Andrew rarely deviates. This process can be summarized in ten (10) unwavering rules:
- The most important rule is this: Build the Farm, Build the Farm, Build the Farm. A Top Farm System is the basis for everything else.
- Do not… I repeat: DO NOT give out big long-term deals. Never, Ever, Never… unless it’s for your own homegrown stars (Kershaw, Bellinger, Seager and to a lesser extent, Jansen and Turner).
- Cap any other free agent signings at $50 to $60 Million.
- Don’t make dope-fiend moves or knee-jerk reactions.
- Character counts over anything else (bye, bye Aroldis Chapman).
- Do not overpay for bullpen arms. You can NEVER and I mean NEVER, predict success on a bullpen arm.
- Draft players who are closer to the Show rather than young high schoolers whose projections are difficult (there are exceptions).
- Put the best coaches and instructors in place for the body, mind and soul development of players.
- Have your own list of untouchable players and stick to it (Seager, Urias, Buehler, Verdugo, Bellinger were all on it. Ruiz, May, and Gonsolin are also on it).
- Stick to the process.
More About the Bullpen
I was listening to MLB.Radio yesterday and Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe was asked about the Red Sox Bullpen problems. He replied that Dave Dombrowski does not value relievers highly and that the bullpen last year was pretty bad… they just got lucky and caught “lightning in a bottle” in the World Series.
Some of that had to do with the Old Dodger hitting ways. I’d like to think that this year they will respond better. Cody is MUCH better, Alex is here, Corey should be healthy and JT hopefully can stay healthy. Then there is AJ… Luck is where “preparation meets opportunity.” They are prepared, but they also need some luck.
Here’s what Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com says about trading for a top reliever:
“According to MLB Pipeline, the top five prospects in the Dodgers system are catcher Keibert Ruiz, shortstop Gavin Lux, pitcher Dustin May, pitcher Tony Gonsolin and catcher Will Smith. If I was Giants president Farhan Zaidi and the Dodgers wanted, say, reliever Will Smith, I would want two of those five. And if I was the Dodgers, I wouldn’t trade two of those five.”
So, there you have it. If Will Smith costs that much, Vasquez (who is signed for 5 more years) will command all 5 prospects! Most fans have no clue how to pull off a trade. The Dodgers may trade for a pitcher or two, but not the ones you want or think! No one knows what Andrew Friedman has up his sleeve!
The DH
I have it on pretty good authority that Rob Manfred wanted to implement the DH in the NL in 2019 and was prepared to expand the rosters to 26 or 27, but Tony Clark of the players association would have nothing to do with it. So, Manfred pulled it off the table. If Tony Clark is there for the next CBA, there is going to be a lot of contention… maybe a strike.
Best QB of All Time
It is my opinion that the greatest Quarterback of all time is not Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Bart Star, Johnny Unitas, Terry Bradshaw, Drew Brees, Joe Montana or any other QB, including Andrew Luck (I live in Indy). The greatest QB of all time (in my opinion) was Dan Mario. He just happened to have a coach who evolved into believing that a running game was unimportant when you have Dan and the Marks Brothers.
Put Dan Marino on a team coached by Chuck Knoll, Vince Lombardi, Bill Walsh or Bill Belichick and the narrative is entirely different. No one is the history of the game had the arm, compact release, and accuracy of Dan Marino. Brady, Star, Montana and others are “systems quarterbacks.” Marino was better all around. That’s the value of a genius coach. Dan never had one….
Baseball Power Ratings
The LA Dodgers are #1 in every poll. The Athletic says this about the Dodgers at the All-Star Break:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (57-29)
In: Cody Bellinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw
Deserving: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo
You could maybe even add Pedro Báez and Julio Urías to that list if you wanted to. The Dodgers are absolutely stacked right now, and it’s not just an aging team that’s hitting its prime all at the same time — a large number of rookies and young players (including All-Stars Verdugo and Buehler) are contributing at a high level as well.
It’s a good time to be a Dodgers fan. Just… stop trying to hug Cody Bellinger.
Help Wanted
So, if you think I probably need psychiatric help, you may be right, but you could also be “write.” That’s right, we are looking for a person or two to write for us. A day a week or a minor league report a week. If you are interested, let us know. I would like to cut back a little and am looking for someone or someones to help. The pay is bad…. there isn’t any! Let me know if you are interested or have any questions. mark@uswatersystems.com
Here’s the deal: My wife and I started US Water Systems, Inc. almost 20 years ago in our garage. It took us a while to figure it out, but we are now growing 20 to 30% month over month and may double in 2020. My title is “visionary” and I am having a lot of fun. I am not tied to a schedule, but I frequently put in 10 hour days and add 2 or 5 hours in my home office. I also routinely wear shorts to the office. Somedays I go in at 10 AM or 7:30 AM . Somedays I leave at 3PM (usually when the Dodgers are on) or at 10 PM. It’s a great gig! I love it!
This is not the only blog I write. I also write ASK THE WATER DOCTOR.com as well as all the questions and comments and all the copy on US Water Systems. I never thought my title would be “writer” but that is what I do.
I will soon be 66 and am blessed with great health, except for that damn arthritis. My son will start buying us out soon but I will likely work into my 70’s… or longer because I love what I am doing. We help people all over the world improve their lives with water. In fact, we even save peoples’ lives by purifying their water. I love the Dodgers, but I love my business and this is the time to build that legacy. No pressure… only pleasure and fun for me. If I am ever not excited to get up and go to work, then I’ll know its time to retire.
My wife, son, brother, son-in-law, and several other relatives work for us as well (we have 45 employees). Right now, I am writing this blog 4 times a week. I would like to cut back to 2 or 3 times a week. AC plans to retire someday soon and I have no idea what he plans to do. DC is a marvel. As he approaches 90, he remains sharp as a tack. We are a great group. Want to join us? Let us know.
DC’s Minor League Lowdown
It was a day of debuts at the AZL level and a day of home runs with 14 hit in the system.
DSL Dodgers (Bautista) 0 – DSL Astros 8
On the mound Rafael Tua (3), Raidel Chacon (2) and Cristian Peralta (3) gave up all 8 runs over their 6 innings pitched. Axel Acevedo finished up with 3 strong innings on one hit and 3 strikeouts. He has lowered his ERA to 1.76 over 15.1 innings.
At the plate they had 4 hits
DSL Dodgers (Shoemaker) 7 – DSL Indians/Brewers 2
Pitching was a different story for the Shoemakers. Benony Robles pitched 4 innings with one run, Stiven Gutierrez 2 innings with one run, Juan De la Cruz 2 scoreless innings and Fran Castro a scoreless inning.
Offensively they scored 2 runs in the first inning on a WP and a Juan Diaz single. They added another run in the 3rd inning on a Julio Enrique single and capped it off with 4 runs in the 5th on a WP, a Julio Enrique single, and another WP. Luis Izturis had 4 walks while Enrique had 2 hits.
AZL Dodgers (Lasorda) 2 – AZL Athletics (Gold) 4
Jose Rodulfo started for the Dodgers and gave 5 good innings with just 2 runs, one earned. He was followed by 2019 18th round selection Jeff Belge who gave up one run in his 0.2 innings pitched in hi debut. Riley Ottesen got the last out in that inning. Seventh round 2019 selection Nick Robertson pitched a scoreless 7th and Max Gamboa a scoreless 8th.
Lasorda’s Dodgers scored one run in the 2nd inning on a double by rehabbing Steve Berman and one in the 7th on a Rolando Lebron single.
AZL Dodgers (Mota) 8 – AZL Cubs (1) 9
Jeffry Abreu got the call for the Mota’s Dodgers and gave up five runs over 3 innings. After that it was a coming out party for the 2019 draftees. Four new Dodgers made their debut and pitched one inning each with no runs, one hit, one walk and 10 strikeouts: Mitchell Tyranski (12th), Jacob Cantleberry (17th), Aaron Ochsenbein (6th), Ryan Pepiot (3rd). Carlos De Los Santos pitched a perfect 8thand 9th inning but ran into trouble in the 10th giving up 4 runs aided by 2 errors and a passed ball.
The Dodgers scored 4 in the first inning with 2 on a double by rehabbing Romer Cuadrado and 2 more on a wild pitch and sacrifice fly. They picked up another run in the 5th inning on an Alex De Jesus double. Romer Cuadardo brought the Dodgers within one in the bottom of the 10th inning with a 3-run home run.
Ogden Raptors 14 – Orem Owlz (LAA) 5
Kevin Malisheski had his second consecutive good start going 6 innings with 4 hits, one run and striking out 8. Hunter Speer and Edward Cuello followed giving up one and 2 runs respectively.
With the bats the Raptors scored early with a 2-run home run by Justin Yurchak in the first inning and a Yurchak single in the second inning. They picked up 6 runs in the 7th inning on a solo home run by Andy Pages, four consecutive walks and a Zac Ching grand slam. Apparently 9 wasn’t enough as they scored 5 more in the 9th on 2 home runs. Justin Yurchak hit his second of the game, a 3-run shot, while Sam McWilliams hit a 2-run opposite field dinger. Yurchak has 6 runs batted in.
Great Lakes Loons 16 – Fort Wayne TinCaps (San Diego) 9
John Rooney started for the Loons and it was not a pitcher’s duel. He gave up 5 runs (3 earned) on 4 hits and 3 walks. Yeisel Cespedes, Justin Bruihl each tossed a scoreless inning while Guillermo Zuniga gave up 2 runs in his 1.2 innings pitched. Outfielder Chris Roller came in to try to get the final out and had just a little trouble finding the plate. He threw 17 pitches, 16 of them balls along with 2 wild pitches.The Loons were forced to bring in Justin Hagenman to try for that final out which he got by a strikeout.
Offensively the Loons bats were electric but also helped by a porous TinCaps defense which made five errors leading to 8 unearned runs. The power display included a 2-run triple by Jacob Amaya, a 3-run home run by Dillon Paulson and two home runs by Miguel Vargas, one a 3-run shot and the other a solo home run. Vargas now has consecutive 2-home run games. Paulson moved into 3rd place in the league with 48 runs batted in. Vargas with a .325 batting average is second in the league.
Ranch Cucamonga Quakes 7 – Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego) 5
Michael Grove started and had a bit of a shaky 2nd inning giving up 2 run but completed 4 innings with just those 2 runs. Wills Mongomerie finished up the next 5 innings allowing 3 runs, just one earned.
The offense played double and home run ball. Devin Mann had a 2-run double in the bottom of the first inning followed by a Jeren Kendall home run. Nick Yarnell had a 2-run double in the 5th inning and Marcus Chiu completed the scoring with a 2-run home run in the 7th, his 10th of the year
Tulsa Drillers 6 – Springfield Cardinals 4
Logan Bawcom started and went 5.2 innings with 7 hits and 4 runs with 5 strikeouts. Michael Boyle, Logan Salow and Ryan Moseley combined for a scoreless 1.1 innings. In his AA debut Salow walked two. Nolan Long pitched the final 2 innings with one walk and 2 strikeouts.
At the plate the Drillers scored 3 on a Logan Landon home run in the second inning. They picked up 3 more in the 7th inning on a Zach McKinstry home run and a Chris Parmalee single.
OKC Dodgers 3 – Nashville Sounds (Texas) 4
Tony Gonsolin started for the Dodgers and had less than an expected outing. He pitched only 3.2 innings giving up 5 hits and 4 runs while walking 4. Shea Spitzbarth, Jaime Schultz and Caleb Ferguson finished up with 4.1 scoreless innings.
The Dodgers scored one run in the 5th inning on a Gavin Lux double and another in the 8th on 3 singles, the last by catcher Josh Thole. They drew within one run of the Sounds in the top of the 9th on a Shane Peterson double but that is as close as they got.
Mark, I wish I was as good a writer as you or AC/DC. If I were, I’d definitely like to write for the blog.
Any word on how our 1st round pick Kody is doing so far? Did the other 1st round pick from North Carolina finally sign?
Re. Marino and system qb’s, I personally happen to think Tim Brown would have had a serious case for top receiver of all time if he had Montana and Young throwing to him, on that stacked team, instead of Marc Wilson and Marinovich and whatever else the Raiders had back then.
First – Bobby give it a try. All you have to lose is your pay. It doesn’t have to be long. Mark and AC outdo themselves. Pick something that interests you and it will fly.
Kody Hoese: 7 GP, 21 AB, 8 R, 9 H, 5 D, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, .429/.480/.810, 1.290 OPS.
Michael Busch (2) and James Lewis (3) have not signed. Three through 15 have all signed but there are still 17 unsigned. The final signing date is July 12. This makes me a little nervous.
I’m just gonna try to ignore this “Bad News” post. No top arm for the pen, MT, AC, DC all wanting to work less on this site. What the freak is going on here?
How many games have we blown because of incompetent lefties in the pen? Does no one remember last year when Kenley went down and no one could record a save?
Yes, Baez is better than ever, Kelly is looking better than early on. But, do you really think that’s enough to “Get Hot” at the right time like the Red Sox last year? Is hoping these guys “Get Hot” a good strategy? I say HELL NO!
We have prospect capital beyond our top prospects. I will agree that there’s no way in hell I include 2 of Lux, May, Ruiz, Gonsolin in any single trade. But, we can certainly put together a package to land a premier arm. Especially when you consider that we can send back a Floro or a Garcia that may turn into a back-end piece next year.
This team is as close to being perfect as I’ve seen in a very long time, perhaps ever. The glaring need is bullpen and we can still balance the lineup to the right a little bit. I’m am 100% certain AF will address the pen come July 31. We just might need to wait a little longer for teams to give up on their post season hopes.
If you are a good reliever you should be able to get batters out on both sides of the plate.
Dave Roberts needs to learn this come playoff time or the sooner the better.
M.T. – I think you’re confused, Dan Mario was a member of the Gambino family and swims with the fishes.
Back in May I realized the bullpen was the only weak link and I was all for trading for a top reliever until I read Ken Gurick’s article about the price the Dodgers would have to pay.
I’m still holding out hope that the Dodgers could get Ken Giles without trading the top 5 prospects. From what I have read the Blue Jays are looking for future outfielders and starting pitching. The starting pitching part of that may complicate things because 2 of our top 5 are starting pitchers.
But maybe just maybe the Blue Jays might take some combination of pitching prospects and outfielders that are ranked #6 and below on the Dodgers prospect list.
Now to the bullpen, Urias is starting to be consistent or consistently good. If Hill returns in time for the playoffs Urias might be better off in the bullpen and if that is the case we have 3 pretty good relievers. In the playoffs you use your best and with the scheduled days off that will help the Dodgers bullpen.
I agree with you about Urias. Hill/Urias are interchangeable. Hill has been very good in the playoffs and as I recall does better as the game goes on.
How did we get to QB’s?
Tom Brady will go down as the greatest QB of all time and with the finest wife.
Back in my day I thought the same about Sonny Jurgeson. Stuck on crappy teams or with George Allen who hated him for being aggressive
I would agree with Gurnick that Farhan would want two of those top five prospects, but that he wouldn’t make a trade involving two of those prospects. Deep breath. Will Smith will be a free agent so Farhan won’t get one of those prospects. More likely, the Giants could work out something for a top 10 prospect and maybe one or two other prospects.
That is NOT what Gurnick wrote!
Are people incapable of reading and understanding?
Hahahaha
That sounds more reasonable to me too. Gurnick’s example with Hand is not a true comparison, as SD had signed him to a three-year deal plus a club option when he was traded to Cleveland (along with another pitcher not eligible for arbitration until 2021), whereas Smith will be a free agent.
A deal for Smith just seems to make sense for LA, though I’d like to see it expand to include Watson too (despite his odd reverse splits this year). I never understood why LA didn’t resign Watson after 2017.
Re: the bullpen – which is just fine – just ask our host. Here is Houston Mitchell from the morning’s Tiimes;
“The league average in IRS% this season is 32%. Let’s see how the Dodgers relievers are doing compared to that.
Better than league average
Pedro Baez, 25% (23.1% last time)
Worse than league average
Yimi Garcia, 33.3% (40%)
Dylan Floro, 36.4% (41.2%)
Kenley Jansen, 41.7% (66.7%)
Scott Alexander, 55.6% (41.7%)
Joe Kelly, 60% (60%)
Caleb Ferguson, 66.7% (66.7%)
Ross Stripling and Julio Urias have not come into a game with runners on base, so they have no IRS%.”
And
“OK, let’s look at one more area and then we will end the stat analysis. Let’s look at Wins Above Average. This basically takes the WAA earned by every player who played that position for the team, combines them, then compares that number to every other team. Where do the Dodgers rank at relief?
Relief pitcher: -3.5 (12th). Last time: -2.7 (15th)”
So they are a little better, but on a team with World Series aspirations, where the offense, defense (until recently) and starting pitching are the class of the league, the ‘pen is the obvious weakness.
Will the Braintrust acquire the likes of Rosscup (oh wait, they already did), Madsen and Axford or a difference maker this year/
Please allow me to speak for myself. 😉
I do not think the bullpen is fine, but I also do not think the sky is falling.
Friedman will likely make a trade, but he doesn’t have to. The internal options are plentiful.
Gonsolin, Urias, Hill, Sheffield, May, Maeda, Kasowski and a few others could be options.
I am just not in favor of Dope-Fiend Moves.
Boston won with a lot worse bullpen last year.
Some nice international signings for the Dodgers: Highly rated C Yeiner Fernandez, OF Luis Rodriguez, and P Kristian Cardozo. They are stacking up catchers in the pipeline. They seem to be targeting players from Venezuela now instead of Cuba and are landing good ones.
Pirates take Vasquez off the market (or want more) and Hand is not being dealt unless Cleveland falls back in the WC. If Smith is the best LH option available then Zaidi will want more too. I hope for the best but don’t think Smith is coming, Tony Watson maybe. I like Giles and the Jays are hopelessly out of it. Otherwise we might see Quackenbush promoted, or a continuation of the usual suspects. Joe Kelly is the key piece that if he turns it around could be the answer.
Urias has really been lights out in his role, and while I like Stripling he is just not consistent. I’m curious to see how Hill’s spot shakes out in the next few weeks and what that does to the bullpen.
Ok dodgerrick what would give up for Smith?
6. Do not overpay for bullpen arms. You can NEVER and I mean NEVER, predict success on a bullpen arm. – Guess this rule wasn’t implemented when FAZ traded Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields in 2016?
An 18-year-old single prospect is hardly an overpay. He was not even in the Dodgers TOP 30 Prospects. That’s why I would not trade one of our TOP prospects for a reliever.
Alvarez was traded for Josh Fields who was 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA over 3 seasons with the Dodgers. Alvarez was 18 when traded and even Houston admitted they had no idea what they were getting. 61 AB’s do not make a career, but he looks pretty good right now. Can he keep it up? That is always the question.
The next question is where would he play for the Dodgers? He wouldn’t! Like Willie Tree Trunks, he’s a DH. But that is what happens when you trade prospects. You never know. I would have hated to have traded with the Giants…
Have you seen Joc play 1st. Alvarez could do just as well. However it seems like something strange was going on with him. I’m not sure but I don’t think he played a game in the Dodgers system.
~
Fields did fine. His deal was that with any consistent use he had to go on the DL or be given a rest in the minors.
Miguel Vargas has been promoted to Rancho, per a source.
Peep the curveball on LHP Eduardo Dominguez. The @Dodgers reached an agreement with that Spanish lefty today. Short video clip here: https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1146150298588602368
Other signings:
Luis Rodriguez, of, Venezuela (video)
Yeiner Fernandez, c, Venezuela (video)
Kristian Cardozo, rhp, Venezuela (video)
Darol Garcia, ss, Dominican Republic (video)
Victor Sosa, of, Venezuela (video)
Juan Idrogo, rhp, Venezuela
videos available here:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-international-signings-tracker/#Dodgers
I won’t get to see Vargas when the Loons come to Cedar Rapids now.
If you have time during a walk/workout or whatever, give the Effectively Wild podcast a listen.
The latest episode has an extended guest, the Dodgers’ Ross Stripling.
It’s a great, great listen.
Thank you for the tip Bluto. I’m going to give a listen tonight. If you’re not already doing so, Ross Stripling’s Podcast, “The Big Swing” is an enjoyable listen. Sometimes they get a little carried away with the younger cultural mind set(lot’s of Game of Thrones stuff), but the baseball portions are really insightful.
Going back to the last thread. The quote says, “if I was” which means that’s what Ken Gurnick would ask for if he were a GM. Last I checked he is not.
Exactly!
I like it when you make off the wall comments about different sports. I tend to think that if I could take any QB to win a game and everything else being equal… I’d take the most accurate passer, and that would be Troy Aikman of UCLA. Oh, and dallas. Marino was great though.
Me? Off the wall?
Is there a wall?
Who knew?
Seager and Pollock hitting in a simulated game today. I sure look forward to the return of Seager. He was absolutely raking when he went down.
Mark mentioned this a few days ago:
https://twitter.com/kengurnick/status/1146240978212151296?s=21
Good call
Rember Trayvon Robinson? He’s playing in Indy now and here’s the lowdown:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/2019/07/02/indy-indians-trayvon-robinsons-rise-darkness-fall-big-leagues/1244471001/
Definitely a blast from the past. The Dodgers got Fedex and Fife in that 3-way deal. Josh Fields was also part of that trade going to Boston from Seattle.
Terrible AB by Garlick. He’s looking like a guy who could use some regular AB’s at AAA and find his swing again. He’s been pulling off the ball.
I don’t believe it. Dodgers walk to victory with 5 walks
OMG
What a way to win
Seen it all now
I guess you can mark holland off the bullpen list.
An off day for Holland, they all have one here and there. His stats are still one of the best even after this game.
But now that I realize the price tags for top tier relievers, Holland is probably going to be too pricey
Wow Holland was wild tonight, a very good pitcher stats wise, it goes to show how the Dodgers offense can and usually is patient. The offense found a way to win. It goes to show the Dodgers offense is that good. That’s why I would hate to lose any piece of this offense in a trade besides Rios and Garlick. The catching position is complicated that’s why I’m fine with Barnes and Martin.
Looked like Joc played a good 1B tonight. Good for him I don’t have a problem with him playing 1B defensively. I just would like a Joc/Pollock platoon instead of a Joc/Freese platoon offensively because I believe Freese is more valuable than Pollock.
I have to give credit where credit is due and that is the Dodgers bullpen. Very good tonight.
Lets keep this up and try to drive in runners in scoring position.
When Seager returns, Taylor should play 2B with Muncy/Freese at 1st. Foolish to force a square peg into a round hole. More likely something bad comes from it than good.
Hawkeyedodger
First of all Muncy is an everday player, so that eliminates Freese from starting, is that what you want?
Where would Joc play in your scenario?
Actually players positions make it hard for everyone that is hitting good on the year to be starters everyday.
And Roberts obsession with Pollock starting throws a monkey wrench in the equasion.
72 hours in the life of a prospect.
In this case, the Dodgers Miguel Vargas:
-Back to back two-homer games
-Promoted to High-A as a 19 year old, becomes third youngest player in Cal League
-Gets a hit off Mackenzie Gore, one of the best pitching prospects in the minors, in first AB THEN…
-Walkoff hit in his first game for Rancho
Maybe he will be the one added to the package that includes Ruiz for Pittsburgh Pirates’ closer Felipe Vazquez although a package of Ruiz and Marshall Kasowski would serve the Pirates better. Friedman might want the Pirates to add a player if the Dodgers offer that pair.
Projecting into the future gets less accurate as the years projected increases. Baseball has free agency and injuries that can wipe out a positive projection. But a quick look at 2024 might look like this:
C: Smith and Cartaya
1B: Ruiz, Pederson, Bellinger (pederson would have to be extended)
2B: Muncy
3B: Seager, Lux
SS: Seager, Lux
LF: Verdugo
CF: ?
RF: Bellinger
Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Grove