The Giants are a really bad team, but their World Series now is playing the Dodgers. I have a sneaking feeling that the Dodgers are going to have problems with them all year. It’s just one of those things… It’s easy to blame this one on Doc for taking out Maeda after 5, but Alexander didn’t cough up a hairball. Stripling did… an inning later. Well, stripling set the table and Floro gave up the game-winning double. The runs were charged to Chicken Strip, but Floro gave up the hit. After the game, Ross said:
“The guys put 8½ innings of really good baseball together except when I was on the field.”
I could argue that after Maeda’s recent struggles he was trying to let Maeda be done after a successful start, so as to build on it. I also would have left Verdugo in to hit in the 9th instead of CT3, but again, Doc likes to show confidence in his players. It’s not what I would have done, but I won’t lose my mind over it.
The Great Bochy took out the Shark and brought in Watson who immediately gave up 4 hits and 2 runs! Bochy is an idiot, right? If that’s the logic you apply to Roberts, apply it both ways. Stripling could have done his job and so could Chris Taylor. You can disagree with the moves, but players have to execute too. Has anyone noticed that Joe Kelly has had two back-to-back outings without allowing a run? His ERA is down to a microscopic 8.31 (microscopic compared to what it once was).
I had hopes that Cody Bellinger could someday hit .300, but come on, .400? You have to be kidding me. After last night’s game, he is hitting .434 with one game left in May. I can’t wrap my mind around anyone hitting .400 again, but Cody Bellinger is doing all the things necessary to accomplish that. With two strikes, he just tries to make contact, almost a swinging bunt is how it looks.
He has cut down his strikeout rate from 27% to 15%, and increased his walk rate to 18% (from 12% last year). He is handling that low inside pitch and high inside pitch and not swinging at balls out of the zone. He is obviously taking RVS’s tutelage to heart, looking for pitches in certain parts of the zone. The odds are, he won’t hit .400, but right about now, he is showing all the signs that he can maintain it. Is it sustainable? I think not, but part of me is not quite sure.
The fact of the matter is: Cody Bellinger is morphing into a superstar at a much younger age than Yelich. I predicted stardom for him, but never anticipated anything like this. He has 14 HR to go with his .434 BA and set the All-time MLB record for RBI before May 1st with 37. By the way, he also gunned down Brandon Crawford at 3B and I doubt that even Puig would have made the play. Cody unleashed a throw that seems to be about 8 feet off the ground.
Cody is also OPS’ing 1.414 and before you say that is totally unsustainable, in 2004 Barry Bonds OPS’ed 1.422. He also OPS’ed over 1.300 three times as did Babe Ruth. He’s certainly in rare air. Will he hit a skid and come down to earth? History says that is likely… but you never know. It will be interesting to watch as he currently shows no signs of falling into bad habits.
Other Dodger News
- This could fall into “This might be really serious” category: AJ Pollock evidently has an elbow infection (possibly staph). This is the elbow where he has had a plate and screws inserted and has had two surgeries. This can potentially be horrible news. You don’t mess with stuff like this. Stay tuned.
- No word on Andrew Toles, except that he is in Glendale. I would imagine he is just working back into shape. If Pollock remains on the IL long term, we could see him in a month… maybe, or maybe not. We don’t know anything…
- Who takes Pollocks’ place? I would think Beaty or Rios, both LH hitters. If Pollock is going to miss much time, the Dodgers could sure us another RH bat… preferably one that could play CF as well. They could also use a “fixed” CT3, but that doesn’t appear close.
- It appears that DJLM is headed to the IL with knee inflammation. That brings the total number of Yankees on the IL to 163. 😉
- Let’s hope Striker Buehler gets his mojo back tonight. I think he has been “tinkering” too much. Just do the voodoo that you do, Striker.
(Photo Credit: Michael Urakami/MLB.com)
Minor League Report by AC
Both OKC and Great Lakes had a travel day and will resume play on Tuesday. The two remaining teams came away with one run victories.
Tulsa Drillers 5 – Corpus Christi Hooks 4 (Astros)
Down 4-1 in the 8th inning, the Drillers scored 4 thanks largely due to a DJ Peters 3 run HR, his third on the season. Gavin Lux got a sac fly for the 4th run. Four of the Drillers 7 hits on the night came in that 8th inning, along with 2 walks. That was enough for the win. No Driller had more than 1 hit, and Peters’ HR was the only XBH.
But tonight was the debut of 28-year-old RHP, Yordy Cabrera, in the Dodgers organization. Cabrera has had a very interesting career to this point, and if so inclined, you can read all about him in the linked article below. For now, the Dodgers are intrigued because he is another with a triple digit fastball. Cabrera went 3.1 innings allowing 3 runs (2 earned), 5 hits, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts. Cabrera was relieved by Nathan Long who had 2.0 IP allowing 1 run on 1 hit, 1 walk, and 1 strikeout. Adam McCreery and Layne Somsen finished the final 3.2 shutout innings for the victory. McCreery got the win (2-1), while Somsen got his 2nd save on the season.
https://www.mlb.com/news/yordy-cabrera-surprises-in-dodgers-camp
RC Quakes 3 – Lake Elsinore Storm 2 (Padres)
It took 10 innings, but the Quakes came away with a 3-2 hard fought victory. Michael Grove started for the Quakes but finished his 34 pitches before he could get out of the 1st inning. In his 0.2 IP, Grove allowed 1 run (unearned) on 1 hit, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts. Grove was relieved by Wills Montgomery who pitched a very good 5.2 innings before he ran into a little trouble in the 7th. After a walk, strikeout, and stolen base, Wills was replaced by the struggling Leo Crawford. In a save situation, Leo promptly gave up a run scoring and game tying single to knot the score at 2-2. Crawford continued and pitched an uneventful 2.2 innings after the single. Jordan Sheffield came in the top of the 10th, retired the side, but not without the great effort by Donovan Casey throwing out the go-ahead run at the plate. In the bottom of the 10th, Casey was again the impetus starting at 2nd base. Carlos Rincon walked, and Connor Wong flew out to CF with Casey and Rincon each moving up a base. Going on contact, Casey scored on a Devin Mann ground ball to 3B who made an errant throw to the plate giving Casey an easy score and a Quakes victory.
The Quakes hitters got a taste of the future Padres Ace, 20-year-old, LHSP, MacKenzie Gore. In his 4.1 IP, Gore struck out 11 Quakes’ batters. In the 5th, after striking out Starling Heredia, Gore issued his only walk to Brandon Montgomery and was replaced by Caleb Bouchley. Bouchley struck out Donovan Casey for out #2 in the fifth, but Carlos Rincon then slugged a 2 run HR to CF to give the Quakes the lead at 2-1. It was Carlos’ 3rd HR on the season. Besides Rincon’s HR, the Quakes offense was limited to 2 hits each from Nick Yarnall, Brandon Montgomery, and Devin Mann. Yarnall and Montgomery each hit their 3rd double.
I blame Roberts. I was thinking Floro & Kelly after Alexander but he went to Stripling. Too much too soon for him in that role and he failed. I guess we can afford to tinker/experiment but it’s annoying.
The Baronet’s cousin in Dickens’s novel, Bleak House, when perplexed by the failure of the police to discover the murderer of the baronet’s solicitor, said “Far better hang wrong fellow than no fellow,” was not only expressing a very common sentiment, but trembling on the brink of the rarer Salvationist opinion that it is much better to hang the wrong fellow: that, in fact, the wrong fellow is the right fellow to hang.
I’m more of a Tolstoy guy myself, but point taken.
While War and Peace was possibly the greatest work ever written, I lean ever so slightly to Dostoyevsky’s Crime and Punishment. Nikolay Gogol is right there with Leo and Fyodor and is notable for his short stories. I’m not really a Dickens fan.
I agree that Strip shouldn’t have been put into a tight spot in his first game in the bullpen. Not to mention, he started just 3 days ago.
Although he has experience coming out of the bullpen, I agree it would have been smarter to find a better spot. The starter has a totally different pre-game routine than does the reliever plus the mental process for the game is different.
Me, I’m a fan of Dr. Seuss!
Me? I like David Halberstam
In the Captain Obvious department we once again saw why the use of CT3 is confounding at times. Doc pinch hitting CT3 for Verdugo seemed odd and the results highly predictable. Pitch one- FB strike in the nitro zone with CT3 watching it, pitch two a FB center cut with CT3 watching it whizz by, pitch three a curve ball that CT3 swings at but had no chance to hit.
If Pollock’s IL stint is a lengthy one CT3 better find his stroke or we’ll all be calling for his demotion. He’s nearly an automatic out each AB and it’s painful to endure.
It had to be painful for Verdugo to watch the comedic AB by CT3… I’m hoping he keeps his composure and doesnt start mumbling about these decisions that affect him.
I’ll say it again, Verdugo deserves a starting spot day in day out till he proves himself… Verdugo could have easily bested CT3’s futile effort…
Damn Mark. Forget about pulling Maeda early. He was struggling all game. That move was deserved. But, to pinch hit for Verdugo with Taylor? That’s why Doc is an idiot! Verdugo is arguably the 2nd best hitter on team and you take him out for THE WORST hitter on the team for the lefty right matchup. Obvious move since Verdugo’s OPS against lefties is 1.455 and Taylor’s is .670. Taylor strikes out on 3 pitches. Then you write an article defending Doc Mattingly? Just stop it. Let it go already.
Bad news for Pollock, good news for Verdugo. Um, I mean Taylor. This is really unfortunate for Pollock and the Dodgers. Elbow infection? I’ve never heard that one before. I guess Pollock is a magnet for the DL and unfortunately for the Dodgers, Donny Roberts will probably make sure Taylor’s in the lineup the next couple of days against lefty pitchers. But, that was probably the case anyways.
Beaty and Rios are both sucking right now and the last thing we need is a 4th first baseman (who bats left handed) on the roster. I’m interested to see who takes Pollock’s spot with the 40 man roster set at 38.
Looking at the OKC roster. Garlick is the only OF’er who seems to have any success at the plate right now.
I like Garlic… call him up!
I forgot about him.
I agree. Local boy, good story, strikes out a lot. He should fit right in.
I think the DODGERS rode CT3 to long. Now is the time to trade him.To who and what for I’ll be waiting to read your suggestions.
At the present time CT3 would net a haul of a dozen baseballs and an old rosin bag as return in a trade. For a guy who re-worked his swing path with RVS prior to the 2017 season, he now needs some additional work with RVS to “right his swing” and to find a stroke that improves contact rate.
I think the reason I am so concerned with CT3 is the failure to make consistent contact. I can accept a K once in awhile, but we’ve seen 0-4 nights with 3 K’s from him far too often. You have to put the ball in play, even if it means moving a baserunner along but the non-competitive AB’s where he looks futile with a bat is tiresome and now he’ll see more playing time with AJ on the shelf.
Can he turn it around? I have some serious doubt.
I think the other team said no to the rosin bag addition.
Taylor will eventually come around. Let him hit for a pitcher. Let him be a late inning defensive sub for Joc. Let him spell Seager. But, why the hell are you even thinking about pinch hitting for your second best hitter who’s mashing lefties for a guy not hitting his weight. Dumb and Dumber. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. Doc is a freaking idiot!
And he is a bad golf cart driver 😉
Yes!
Time for Toles. What better OFielder do we have on the farm and he comes with MLB experience. Hopefully, he’s been exorcised, confessed, and made kosher, and is ready to play ball!!
I’m really pulling for Toles but he is a Pollock on the 60 d IL answer, but not a short term answer.
I don’t think Toles is ready.
We don’t really have a AAA OF ready to step in. I want to predict Rios but I have very little conviction in that call. Ditto the great Paulo Orlando. I guess I’ll go off the board and guess Matt Beaty.
1. I want Will Smith to replace Pollock.
2. I want Smith to get playing time at catcher and third.
3. I want Martin to pinch hit more often and catch less.
4. I think Muncy will benefit the most with Pollock on the IL and Belli will play more RF.
5. I think there is a better chance of Verdugo playing CF instead of Belli so that Belli doesn’t have to move around the field so much that he cools off.
6. I am much more confident in Verdugo but not as much as everybody else. I think he is about to cool down rather quickly. I hope not.
7. I am really worried about Pollock’s infection.
8. I don’t think about Friedman often if at all but if I were to fret over a front office, it would be the Lakers front office. Sell the team Jeannie. Maybe Billie Jean can come up with a buying group.
9. I have to think Toles thinks his comeback just got legs.
10. MJ, really? Hamchuck? Now that we are past that, please don’t substitute Jeff for Hamchuck. Both are the opposite of me, which is not necessarily a put down for them or me.
If Martin catches less, he cannot win comeback player of the year!!
We have to make sure that happens! 😉
I watched Verdugo handle a couple plays in CF and I don’t see anything to suggest he can’t play there. Others have pointed out his slow footspeed but that’s what positioning is for. Not a permanent fit but for a stretch he can handle it.
I agree – he’s just not a full-time CF, but he has good reads.
and an excellent arm that in and of itself is a deterrent
Stripling and Taylor? You gotta be able
To take the heat if you want to be a big league manager! Belly the next .400 hitter. Slow down. It’s one month. I’ll settle for a .300 hitter with 40+ homers.
There will never be another .400 hitter for an entire season. Now please Belli…prove me wrong. Hitting .300 is way hard enough these days.
Let’s all calm down people, they lost a 1 run game on the road to a team that gets sky high to play them. Watch them bounce back in a big way tonight. The time to address another RH bat was in the off season, and it was not done. With AJ’s injury history (and this is a weird one) and Kike the main 2B guy that left CT3 as the only RH OF bat. Freese can play LF too, but no idea how he looks out there. I think Muncy plays more and Kike picks up more OF time too and Alex gets a shot at CF. They will be fine with more LH hitters until AJ comes back. Doc made a couple head scratchers last night but he is not an idiot!
I nominate this one as the most rational comment of the morning.
Except for that last sentence. “Doc made a couple head scratchers last night but he is not an idiot!” Translate – head scratchers means dumb moves. Idiot means dumb. Doc made a couple dumb moves, but he is not dumb. That isn’t very rational.
But, most of the time you’re right on Vegas! Don’t let Mark bully you into thinking Doc Mattingly is a good manager.
Well I think he is a smart guy who can’t help himself from pushing buttons and sometimes they are not the ones I would push but I don’t have all of the info that he does so hard to say if he’s stubborn and maybe still learning on the job and figuring out what he has to work with this year. I don’t think he’s an idiot, however his WAR is probably a negative number though, we surely agree on that.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
Mark Twain
The Expert Paradox
By Scott Berkun:
The Paradox of Expertise
Posted on February 4, 2015 in Culture
A previous essay, Why Smart People Defend Bad Ideas, continues to get feedback, despite the fact that I wrote it before I knew the concept of cognitive bias. People leave comments often and here’s a particularly interesting link (thanks CCJ).
From Studies in Intelligence (vol 47 no 1), a declassified CIA journal:
The Paradox of Expertise: the strengths of expertise can also be weaknesses. Although one would expect experts to be good forecasters, they are not particularly good at making predictions about the future. Since the 1930s, researchers have been testing the ability of experts to make forecasts. The performance of experts has been tested against actuarial tables to determine if they are better at making predictions than simple statistical models.
Seventy years later, with more than two hundred experiments in different domains, it is clear that the answer is no. If supplied with an equal amount of data about a particular case, an actuarial table is as good, or better, than an expert at making calls about the future. Even if an expert is given more specific case information than is available to the statistical model, the expert does not tend to outperform the actuarial table.
Also known as: Run away if someone tells you they have a great idea for an investment . . .
Sometimes the wrong decision works, and sometimes the right decision doesn’t work.
I thought bringing in Floro and his wiffle ball stuff was the right move with the bases loaded. It almost worked, but then it didn’t.
But pinching hitting CT3 for Verdugo, who’s hitting well vs lefties, was the wrong move. Verdugo is a better hitter, including vs lefties, than CT3, and Will Smith is actually better vs. righties than lefties. It was the wrong move, and clearly it didn’t work.
In fact, it wasn’t just the wrong move, it was a dumb move. No common sense reason to pinch hit for Verdugo, EVER!
I thought bringing in Stripling instead of Floro for a clean inning was a mistake and possibly overmanaging. Floro was the best call there given the circumstances.
1 – Taylor should get the time that he needs to re-tool his swing in the minors. That’s what AAA is for.
2 – Too bad about Pollock. He can be a key contributor if healthy. I wonder how long he’s been hurting. This infection could be dangerous. If it’s caused by infected surgical hardware, the only fix might be removal of the hardware in which case he could be out for a while.
3 – I would love to see what Verdugo could do with an extended look. He would probably be OK short term in CF, but since he has a cannon arm and Bellinger has the speed to play CF, that might be a better fix.
4 – If Pollock goes on the IL then they need a RHH. Will Smith and Kyle Garlick are off the best start at OKC; Omar Estevez has been hot in Tulsa.
5 – No way to know that Stripling wasn’t going to execute in his 1st relief stint last night. He has been solid all season long. Dodger hitters didn’t do much against the Shark last night – a little surprising.
6 – Bellinger is not going to hit .400. It’s still April for heaven’s sake. I would be happy with .300 and 40 HR. (and pleasantly surprised)
A good take Rick.
Omar Estevez is off to an encouraging start in AA and overall he has improved his prospect profile considerably over the last 18 months. That said, he’s nowhere near ready to contribute at the MLB level. I’d bet a lot of money he won’t sniff LA until late 2020 at the earliest.
This loss was not due to any individual/manager/coach/player/pitcher. It was a team loss. Nothing more. It was Evan Longoria getting the best of Dylan Floro on one night. Before last night, Floro had inherited 8 runners, and only 1 scored (in a 7-2 victory). Even after last night, Floro still has a 0.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.86. He is not the reincarnate of 2003 Eric Gagne or 2016 Zack Britton. One bad pitch does not undue the season successes to date.
I also do not blame Doc for using Stripling. He is aware that he is now a reliever. He knows how to relieve. It would have been a bullpen day for him anyway. Strip did not pitch well. It happens. It is not like bringing in Joe Kelly in a must shutdown situation in 2019 or Pedro Baez early 2018, and watching the pitcher implode. If you cannot rely on Strip pitching 1.0 inning, then it is time to get another pitcher, and there is ZERO reason to believe that.
I know Doc caught a lot of grief last year for continually putting Pedro Baez in tough situations only to watch him flounder. He kept going to him, and I am sure with the instruction THROW YOUR OFF-SPEED PITCHES. Finally late in the year (August), something clicked, and he was probably the most reliable reliever the Dodgers had down the stretch. This year, with that new confidence, Baez has appeared in 14 games, 16.0 IP. In four of those games, he was not very good allowing 10 runs (7 earned). But in the other 10 games, 12.2 IP, Baez has allowed zero runs and 4 base runners (1 hit, 2 BB, 1 HBP). He has 9 inherited runners, and two have scored.
Since none of us are in the clubhouse, maybe just maybe, Doc is doing the same with Joe Kelly. Keep throwing him out there with his instructions from Honey, and maybe something will click with him, and he will become the 2018 WS Joe Kelly. Maybe with the failures Kelly has experienced thus far, and with the confidence that Doc is showing in Kelly, he can turn it around when the Dodgers will need him most. Even with admittedly a poor bullpen, the Dodgers are at 19-12, a record I did not think they would be at on the last day of April.
On the surface, PHing CT3 for Verdugo looks questionable at best. But again, maybe just maybe, Doc is thinking about August and September and hoping that CT3 will remember the confidence Doc and the team showed him when he was a mess in April, and it will pay off. It is not like CT3 is not a ML hitter. He belongs on a ML roster even if as a late inning defensive player and RH PH. But I think Doc is looking for more, and if he continues to show confidence, hopefully it will be rewarded. If not, then the Dodgers can look elsewhere. Maybe Toles if he can recover from his personal demons. Just like the Dodgers have to ride Kenley and Kelly, they are going to have to ride CT3. Regardless of how it is perceived, I will continue to scrutinize the team and criticize when needed, even if considered a moron. But the team is 19-12, good for 2nd best record in NL in APRIL. Really, how great is that. IN APRIL!!
AC, you are my favorite moron. Keep up the good work. I know it is a challenge for you.
Mark, you are my favorite knucklehead. Keep up the good work.
MJ, you are my favorite MIA. Where are you?
Bums,
I resemble that!
Yes, I know Toles is LH, but the Dodgers do not have a reliable RHH bat at AAA. Being too LH is something that should have been addressed during the winter. Now they just need the best players, and the RHH Paolo Orlando and Cameron Perkins are not the answer. Getting AJ Pollock was a good start, but they needed more. Now they need to step up and play with who they have. They have two LHP in the next two games. Time for someone to make a difference.
I don’t understand why they didn’t add a RH bat other than Pollock. I guess they thought Freese had it covered but losing Puig & Kemp left us a little unbalanced. Making Hernandez the full-time 2B only exasperated this fact.
AC, It’s about time some moron was the voice of reason! 100% Agree!
The next couple of days will be very important with regard to Pollock. Right now they say the 10 day IL but as others have pointed out, this could be very serious, leading to weeks or even months out for him if it is a serious infection or the hardware in his elbow needs replacing.
For a variety of reasons, we don’t seem to have a decent option in the minors for a right handed hitting outfielder. That leaves a trade. I would not be surprised if that turns out to be the answer. If AF dangles Rios and/or Beatty he could probably get something serviceable in return.
Give him as much time as he needs. He hasn’t been contributing anyway. Take your time, A.J.
I happen to think Garlick could get the call. The Dodgers have room to add him to the 40-man he he can play both corner outfield spots.
lol – I would like Garlick to get the call. It’s too obvious, so it probably won’t happen. I mean, why replace a rhh outfielder with a rhh outfielder? They’ll probably call up another LHH 1B or a catcher because they’re planning for August and September. If Garlick gets the nod I’ll be pleasantly surprised. He’s crushing lefties, so again, it probably won’t happen.
Toles just walked into AZ camp. There is zero chance he gets called up. Bet your life on it.
Sorry, but I can’t get over the Doc Homerisms. Doc did not put in CT3 for August, that’s a reach. Doc is simply doubling down on CT3 and his love for the righty on lefty matchups to his detriment. Sure, you can create conspiracy theories about why he’s doing it. But most likely, if it walks like and duck and talks like a duck…
Doc has no problem sitting good hitters for multiple days in a rows, but makes sure to get CT3 into almost every game. Send him to the minors to sort things out. At least give him a couple of games off to spend extra time in the cage to work with the gurus.
59, you may be right, and continually batting CT3 in hopes that it will pay off in August might be a stretch. Then again maybe it’s not. CT3 was not very good for much of 2018, but when the Dodgers needed him most (Sept/Oct) CT3 batted .345/.433/.586/1.019. And that carried over to the NLDS and NLCS where CT3 batted .360/.467/.600/1.067. Was he as bad last year as he is this year? No. Could someone else have had a better Sept/Oct and pre WS playoff? Perhaps/Perhaps not. Would the Dodgers have been better to send CT3 packing when he was not performing? Perhaps. Would CT3 have been as productive when he was really needed had not Doc showed him the confidence? Perhaps. Regardless as to who comes up for AJ, CT3 is going to get a lot of play time. Maybe a trip to AAA is not a bad idea, but maybe by keeping CT3 with the big league team, the Dodgers are hoping that his personal hitting coach, RVS, will get him right. He did in 2017.
What we do know, is that none of us have a line of communication with anyone with the Dodgers, and none of us have any real understanding as to the thinking of Doc. Another thing we know is that nobody will ever know what Alex may have done in the same situation. Did Alex have a better chance of success at that point?
Absolutely. But would it have made a difference? We will never know.
As long as the Dodgers are winning, I am okay with keeping CT3 and batting him. Right now the Dodgers are on a 99-100 win season pace after a far better April than most would have expected. With 3 SP on the DL for a portion of the season. Kershaw has lost at least three starts; Hill at least 5 starts; Ryu probably 2; and Buehler has not been right yet. Seager is still getting acclimated to ML baseball. JT is off to a slow start. I think the team is going to get better as the season continues, and they have been very good so far.
I am not an apologist for Doc. I do not believe Doc is as good as some say, nor as bad as some believe. I prefer in-game tacticians, but that is not the game right now. Doc is a master communicator (who absolutely makes mistakes), and is exactly what the FO wants to lead the team they have put together. Doc is a good 162 game manager. We all hope he is a better manager for 4 wins in the last series of the MLB season.
You’re 100% correct about Doc, AC. Unfortunately in crucial moments we’ve seen things like Kike Hernandez batting 3rd in a World Series elimination game.
Excellent presentation of your thoughts AC. I agree for the most part. Except Doc Mattingly is indeed stupid.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Beaty is called up because we need a 3rd left handed hitting first baseman to cut into Verdugo’s well deserved playing time.
I think we all know what to expect now, CT3 will get even more playing time now that Pollock is down.
And I just want to emphasize the fact that I’m very much in favor of CT3, I’m just complaining about the situation last night, in a winnable game. You don’t take out one of your best to put in one of your worst unless you’re stupid, an idiot.
I just figured it out: CONNOR JOE!!!
I was looking at the OKC stats and his name jumped out at me as I had completely forgotten about how he and Drew Jackson were returned as Rule 5 picks. (DJ appears to be on the 7-day IL)
From the field, I think it’s safe to say Toles isn’t ready. Beaty is an interesting option as he had some quality at-bats in the spring and while predominately a 1B has the ability to play the OF. Ditto Edwin Rios, who is mainly a 3B/1B but has seen some reps in the OF.
Garlick has a very cool name.
Smith would be an interesting choice. Not sure his time is now though, and it might depend on the potential length of Pollock’s injury.
Orlando might be an option but he is sucking hard in AAA; so is Perkins, who will NOT be getting the call.
Knowing nothing, I’ll handicap the field like so:
1. Joe
2. Beaty
3. Rios
4. Smith
5. Surprise Trade
6. Orlando
7. Garlick
8. Toles
9. Perkins
Gentlemen, place your bets.
oops
evidently, Joe is on the IL as well [according to another site]
i’ll go on record as saying i don’t know whom it will be but i don’t think it will be garlick
as cool as that would be
i can’t remember the last time we called up someone i don’t think i’ve ever seen bat
i’ve always considered him a non-prospect [but never to his face]
Garlick makes the most sense for now. Speaking of, I had garlic ice cream in Gilroy a few months ago; my god was it good!
I had a garlicky twice-baked potato to go with my cowboy ribeye Sunday night for my wife’s birthday dinner. Green salad with vinagrette & blue cheese crumbles, warm sourdough bread, ranch beans [pass], and an amazing brownie sundae we split four ways. Younger son even got spicy buffalo wings for his dinner so I got to try those too. It’s always mildly disappointing when a steakhouse’s portions are so large you can’t really justify ordering an appetizer. Apps are where all the flavor and fun is.
what a delicious meal!
To hell with figuring out who to bring up. Let’s just have BlackMirror take us all out to dinner!
Bring up Peter’s and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle!
There seems to be some question as to who the Dodgers should bring up if Pollack goes on the IL. Which raises the question; if the Dodgers sent Taylor down who would come up for him? Given that he does provide good defense at several positions, maybe this is why Roberts keeps giving him opportunities. And I say this as one who is tired of seeing Taylor strike out all the time.
Taylor’s not going down
That was said about Frazier but Cosell told us otherwise. And, he told us twice.
I remember it like it was yesterday.
brilliant
AJ on the DL what a shocker. Expect 4 years of this. Stripling to me has always seemed better as a starting pitcher than a relief pitcher. Doc with analytics but still hits Taylor over Verdugo despite what Verdugo did against lefties last year.
Since no one has offered a legitimate reason why DR would have CT3 PH for Verdugo, I will continue to assume there isn’t one.
If DR is trying to build some confidence into Taylor it doesn’t seem to be working and last night probably did the opposite. While it doesn’t seem necessary to bolster Verdugo’s confidence, there’s no need to frustrate it either.
So what was DR doing, going off the script?
Well Doc did a good job of taking Taylors confidence even lower.
Taylor had a .300 average as a pinch hitter. He could have hit for Joc instead but Joc was 2 for 4 with two doubles against Smith. Sometimes stats get in the way of the obvious.
So based on that stat, using Taylor in that spot was reasonable IYO ? Honest question, not sarcasm.
Does seem to me that Verdugo would of been a more reasonable option, regardless of the stats.
I do assumes DR is making decision based on alot more than meets the eye of a fan watching a game on TV.
I’m not calling DR any names, only asking to better understand the game and enjoy the process. I don’t know nearly enough to be calling names.
I believe in the biz that is called playing a hunch. Unless there’s a clear advantage, burning a player is rarely a good move. As the Gettysburg battlefield tour guide told me, “Manuever is used to combat advantage.” Roberts had to have thought that Verdugo was at a disadvantage in that instance, likely by dint of simple handedness.
I would have let Verdugo hit and if I were going to pinch hit, I would have hit for Joc.
Well I wonder, I wonder if DR
” plays a hunch ” or is it just by the ” analytical books “.
If he was playing a hunch using CT3, then I do question his decision. If he was using the provided stats and following orders, then he was just being a good soldier on the battlefield.
I wonder which it was.
Sorry in advance for this reply but even if he were “playing the numbers” there is still an amount of guesswork involved. That’s the thing with stats: they only tell you what already happened not what’s going to happen.
Let’s assume Taylor’s numbers vs. a RHP in that situation were better than Verdugo’s vs. a LHP. That sentence only tells a small part of the story. There’s also the larger context the game, whether contact is needed, and how those two have looked in previous at-bats.
I think what you’re getting at is, “Is there a specific formula that Roberts follows–probably advanced by AF–that he adheres to in a given situation to help him make a decision that would otherwise be decided by hunch?”
I don’t know. I think there might be but I also think he has the freedom to make up his own mind. Here’s the thing: Obviously the guy has job security. That’s not the issue. But does he have the full backing of AF and the F.O.? It seems likely that if he does, it’s because–as you say–he makes decisions that can be supported and informed by the data.
Damned if you do and damned if you don’t if you think about it. I would make a poor manager but I would also subscribe to the theory that the more decisions you make, the more mistakes you’re liable to incur. I wasn’t watching the game at the time the move was made but choosing CT3 over AV seems flimsy at best. At worst, it an was attempt to “get CT3 going,” which seems to be the consensus here.
I suppose if Stripling is lights-out I don’t have any gripe at all. I just saw that as a perfect opportunity to bring in Floro for an inning or two, then Kelly to get back in the swing of things. Ideally we wouldn’t even need to touch Jansen.
Perhaps the game was lost on the offensive side. We let several opportunities go to waste. Success is an orphan; failure has a thousand fathers 😉
Deciding to do nothing is still a decision. That said, I didn’t understand Taylor for Verdugo.
Even with missed opportunities the Dodgers had second and third with one out and Hernández at bat. Hard line drive double play ends the inning. Ball not hit at the shortstop and 2 runs score. Bellinger not getting doubled up and we have another opportunity.
Doc was in the Locker Room playing with his G.I. Joes and sent up CT3 dressed Joe. This is his battlefield.
Enough with all this dumb talk about CT3. Does anyone know who Jose Ramirez is? The Cleveland Indians infielder hit 34 HR with a .939 OPS last year. In about twice as many AB’s as CT3, he is hitting .188 with 2 HR and OPS’ing .572!
Throw the baby out with the bathwater!
The car has a flat tire… blow it up!
It’s too cold in the house, set it on fire!
You send a guy like Yasiel Puig who is a dumbass and disrespects his coaches down. You don;t send a gut like CT3 down now.
Maybe after 150 AB’s you think about send CT3 down, but if your plan is to destroy his confidence and trade value, you send him down now… especially if you are really stupid!
Do you have any idea how hard it is to hit in the major leagues and how difficult it is to break out of a slump? Obviously not!
Ian Kinsler, Scott Schebler, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Josh Harrison, Chris Owings, Travis Shaw, Keon Broxton, Chris Dickerson, Rogned Odor, Edwin Nunez, and several others are all hitting less than CT3.
Wait, the car is dirty – take it to the junkyard. Yeah, that’s the ticket…
Geeeeezzzzz – Some of you guys kill me…
Except Taylor lead the league in K’s last year with less than 500 AB – hard to do! This isn’t a new problem, but it’s one that needs to be fixed.
You know what’s funny though, the next four on that list were all great players:
Goldschmidt
Harper
Story
Baez
Just sayin’
Taylor is hanging on to the Swing for the Fences hitting routine, while you look at Bellinger who has adopted the RVS style is thriving. Taylor is refusing to change, but the Pitchers have his number.
Looks like it’s Beaty.
DODGERS RECALL INF MATT BEATY
OF A.J. POLLOCK PLACED ON 10-DAY IL
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today recalled infielder Matt Beaty from Triple-A Oklahoma City and placed outfielder A.J. Pollock on the 10-day injured list with right elbow inflammation.
Beaty, 26, was the 12th round selection by the Dodgers in the 2014 First-Year Player Draft out of Belmont University. The former Belmont Bruin has been with the Dodger organization for five seasons and this will be his first Major League promotion after being added to the 40-man roster on November 20, 2018. In five minor league seasons, he is a .307 (427-for-1390) hitter with 33 homers and 209 RBI across five different levels. Prior to the promotion, Beaty was batting .277 (23-for-83) with two homers and 10 RBI in 22 games for Oklahoma City.
Pollock, 31, will make his make his fifth career stint on the IL. In 28 games this season, Pollock is batting .223 (23-for-109) with two homers and 14 RBI. The former 2015 All-Star and Gold Glove Award winner is a career .279 (663-for-2380) hitter with 76 homers and 278 RBI.
“Deserves” doesn’t have much to do with it, but I’m very happy for him and will be rooting hard for him. If anyone “deserves” a shot in the bigs, it’s a guy like Beaty.
I hope he gets to see some action, unlike Sborz.
Beaty’s minor league splits are pretty bad so there would be very little reason to start him against a lefty. They already have plenty of options against righties so I would guess it will be mostly pinch hitting duties.
Beaty it is.
Dodger’s lack of right handed hitting depth exposed here
I haven’t read through all of today’s posts, so while I continue to have serious doubts about CT3, I do agree with Mark that there is no justification to send him down to OKC, at this time.
What bothers me about CT3 is his apparent unwillingness to cut down on his violent wild swing. With his speed, and athleticism, it appears as if CT3 would be successful with s more controlled swing that got his speed on base regularly. I suspect he’s a guy that could hit a lot of doubles, and find his way on base often enough to ultimately become a very effective lead-off hitter. But it’s just speculation on my part. Maybe I’m right and maybe I’m wrong.
Well Mark it’s not like Taylor set the world on fire for an entire year last season. It’s not a career maker to lead the league in K’s with little or no power!
He was a solid player last year. I’ll take that. Baseball-Reference has him at 4.1 WAR last season. 4.8 in 2017. He OPS’ed .850 in 207 and .775 last season. His strikeouts are troubling and he worked with RVS before 2017 and is working diligently with him now. Sometimes you just have to work through the process. How he is playing is not acceptable and maybe he needs to play every day to be good, but if they can get him “fixed” to some degree they can trade him. Sending him down renders him useless.
In case you don’t know, here’s how they rank WAR:
Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
CT3 was a good player, even last year with all his Strikeouts. Little to no power? He hit 21 HR in 17 and 17 in 18. In 18 he had 35 doubles and 8 triples too. Those guys don’t grow on trees and you don’t just throw them away.
I like Taylor but I don’t care what WAR he had last year. He was NO all star! He’s a versitle and valuable defender, a great teammate but he is an absolute train wreck at the plate right now and I don’t know how you can give away at bats trying to get him through this
Hernandez CF
Seager SS
Turner 3B
Bellinger RF
Freese 1B
Muncy 2B
Taylor LF
Barnes C
Buehler P
Maybe moving CT3 up and get better protection will help him. Move Seager down in the Lineup???
I for one wasn’t advocating sending CT3 down, I was questioning the decision to use him in the particular spot in question last night.
And only asking the question of how the decision was made.
As it was fleshed out, is it a decision made on a ” hunch ” a decision of a manager trying to get his guy on track, or a decision based on analytics.
That was my question, just curious how the game is being orchestrated.
I sure hope Taylor finds his way out of this rut, and hope DR helps him to do it.
Sure hope Andrew Toles gets another shot.
While I would not have made the move, here is the Short Reason why Doc pinch hit for Verdugo with CT3:
As much as hitting is a physical discipline, it is also just as much a mental discipline. Understandably, CT3’s confidence is at an all-time low. Dave Roberts was trying to help restore that confidence by showing his confidence. It didn’t work, but who knows what repercussions it may have…
Dave knows his players and that’s why I am OK with it. Sometimes you lose a battle, in order to win the war. Is that what will happen. I have no clue, but the Dodgers need a good CT3 or the player they trade him for.
Using that rationale, you would play all of your worst/struggling players to give them confidence since the Bellingers of the world don’t need it right now.
NO – you give yourself the best chance to win.
Taylor needs to have his swing fixed. He’s not going to do it hitting .160 in the Bigs. Sending him to the minors isn’t “throwing him away” – it’s trying to fix the problem. Sure he’s valuable – but not the way he’s playing right now. And his track record – It’s not like Goldschmidt last year. (In previous posts, you have made the comparision.)
Yeah, Goldy struggled at the start of the season, but he’d been arguably the most consistent offensive performer in the NL since 2012 – in his worst season, he OPS’d .899 (in that season he led the league in RBIs). Taylor had 1 really good year and 1 so-so year (I don’t care about his 4.1 WAR last year – he simply didn’t hit very well).
I agree that he’s potentially a valuable piece – he’s fast, can play 4 positions (and maybe more), has pop . But he’s only valuable if he he actually produces. He is a -.5 WAR player so far with an OPS+ of 37 (average is 100). He has K’d 21 times in 66 AB. It’s hard to help if you miss the ball.
Are you more likely to solve the problem playing every day in the minors or playing 3 times a week against the toughest pitchers in the world. And are the Dodgers more likely to win with him trying to solve his problems on the field or with another guy who won’t hit .160?
I think it’s way too early to send him down. Many felt the same way about Joc the past couple of years…
Look what happened.
I give him 150 AB’s before I think about AAA.
Rick,
Last night I was being facetious when I said “The Giants are a Tough Team”. They stink. That’s why the Dodgers should roll right through them. I told my wife, “Dodgers played the Giants” She replied, “So they lost”.
No amount of logic is going to change his mind even though he knows deep down he was a pissed as the rest of us for having CT3 hit for Verdugo. He knows it was dumb, just won’t admit it.
No one can accuse you of having vision, that’s for sure. Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!
BOOM!
One of the guys who showed up at ST and put in the effort should get called up, not Toles.
I do think that the Dodgers need another RH hitter.
I still want Nick Castellanos, but we may have to trade Joc to get him. He is in a bad situation on a bad team. Put him on a good team with coaching from RVS and I think he blooms. Let him play LF – he can be decent there.
Casty is a Free Agent after this season. Joc has two more years of control.
Why the heck are you still stuck on this Casty? He is another Pollack. Why not sign a real super player this off season instead of crap. You wanted Pollack and of course after less than a month, he is on the DL. GO FIGURE. Come on Mark, time to step on the Super Star FA train.
I was OK with Pollock but never wanted him.
The Super Star FA train leads to oblivion UNLESS you can sign JD Martinez for $105 million.
I like to get players before they are that player, but once they are that player you have to over pay. That is so yesterday. The Phillies are idiots!
Didn’t you want Realmuto? I wasn’t heart broken over Harper, but to never sign a Super Star is just silly thinking. I would have loved to have Willie Mays on the Dodgers during his prime. But this thought today, we would PASS.
I was advocating Realmuto BEFORE the rumors ever leaked, but I would have never paid what the Marlins wanted.
Joc could easily be extended as many years as the Dodgers wanted so it is not one year of Casty instead of 2 years of Joc.
If Verdugo is everything most people think he is in here then Seattle would trade for him and also try to get Taylor and Maeda as well for Haniger.
Still beating that drum?
If Verdugo is what we think, WE KEEP HIM.
Mark,
Thanks for your analysis regarding DR decision. If that’s what he was trying to do with and for CT3 I can appreciate that. If he was attempting to get his man right, then hats off to him. As you say, we can’t tell yet the benifit. CT3 didn’t execute last night but perhaps it still will help him.
If DR’s decision was based on stats then IMO it was bad and he got what he asked for.
But to take a risk to help your players, we’ll it’s worth the risk. Especially now.
As I said earlier, CT3 is still swinging like he has the last two years. He won’t adapt. The opposition has and the pitchers have found his weakness and are exploiting it badly. Bellinger on the other hand has adapted and is doing quite the opposite. So, it is up to Taylor.
Random thought: A troll is a troll.
If true, there is a troll that is having fun and laughing.
Ken Gurnick has an excellent article on the Dodgers website which highlights the origins of “The Dodgers Way”, the pitching rich history of the team over the past seventy-five years and the impact that scouting and minor league development have had and continues to have on the franchise. Its a great read and I’d recommend for all Dodgers fans, both old and new.
love to see video of Koufax and Drysdale. It never gets old. They always leave out Jim Brewer. He was pretty darned good. As was Ron Peronoski
Was this Made in Hong Kong before 1960? If so, it might be worth something 🙂
Would not be surprised to see Joc/CT in LF, Bells in CF. Verdugo in RF, Freese. Muncy, Beaty andTurner at 1B, 2B and 3B, Seager at SS and Kike as the super sub.
Porcello shutting out the A’s in Boston. He is over 105 pitch count and counting. Starting to see a trend in letting Starters go deeper into games?? Pitch Count should be banned.
Yeah, his 7.45 ERA is worthy of 150 pitches!
It is now down to 5.23 and he was 17-7 last year. Great pitcher in the American League. I would take him at age 30 in a heartbeat. Proves that a pitcher can throw more that 60 pitches and be ok. Today’s players are pampered.
Victory tonight for Taylor. He didn’t strike out but blasted a ball to first base at 64 mph!
Actually, you could see he cut down on his swing after 2 strikes.
Seager needs to bat lower. I keep saying this until he back to being himself. Right now he is not a good #2 hitter.
Bellinger is god
They unfroze Ted Williams Head and put it on Bellis body perhaps???
Mr. Freeze in the house.
what eyes by the ump to see exactly where that ball landed
Taylor improving every ab. Got that last shot to 1base up to 71 mph!
From MLB Trade Rumors:
The Brewers announced Tuesday that righty Josh Fields has been released from their Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio. Per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (on Twitter), Fields exercised the April 30 opt-out clause in the minor league deal he signed with Milwaukee last month.
The former Dodgers righty was off to a miserable start to the season in San Antonio, where he’d yielded eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits and four walks with five strikeouts in just 7 2/3 innings of work. Fields allowed runs in six of his first seven Triple-A appearances this year, though he did finish out that otherwise forgettable stint with three shutout innings across three appearances (one hit, no walks, three strikeouts), so perhaps he’s begun to turn a corner.
Since being acquired by the Dodgers in 2016, the now-33-year-old Fields has racked up 117 1/3 innings of relief and pitched to a terrific 2.61 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 1.22 HR/9. Beyond that recent track record, Fields generally averages nearly 95 mph on his heater with strong swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, all of which should be alluring to other clubs. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher thanks to a heavy reliance on a four-seam fastball, but Fields has allowed well less than a homer per nine innings pitched dating back to 2014 (even when factoring in an outlier 1.58 HR/9 mark in 2017).
$20 says he’s back at OKC within a week!
Seager doesn’t look right yet. He is arm swinging and not really getting his hips into it.
Buehler doesn’t look the way he did last year. His pitches aren’t as sharp. He’s close though.
I think Buehler just got closer.
Seager had some major surgery. It’s going to take a while for him to get back to the new normal.
which is why He should be batting lower in the order.
Great job going the other way. Huge runs
See Mark I told u to hang in there with Taylor!
lol
It’s Beaty time!
So, can I at least get an “AMEN” that maybe Dave Roberts confidence in CT3 last night may have contributed to his success today…. maybe?
I’ll give you an Amen mostly because I don’t think that lost us the game.
Let me see a few more hard contact AB’s and I’ll give you an AMEN!
I went to a funeral last night and heard a lot of “Amens”. While I am happy for Taylor, calling this a success for Doc and T is funny and really not deserving of “Amen”. Maybe, a “good job Taylor, keep it going”.
Sorry Mark.
Ah man! You’re reaching for that one!
Take your medicine!
Taylor is going to catch up to Bellinger in all categories within the next few weeks I predict.
Fantastic for Floro to come right back and this time do his job. Now THAT is Doc showing confidence in his guy.
Not so fast with the Buehler is our ace. So far he’s only been good for 5 innings. Got to get better or else I’ll send him down with Taylor!
Clayton is still the Ace.
I’ll give u an Amen on that one!
Did someone forget to tell Turner it’s not May until tomorrow
Bellinger can only dream about putting up an OPS like Beaty did in the month of April!
After defeating the Giants 10-3, the Dodgers’ record is 20-12. Tampa Bay and St Louis have the next most wins at 19.
MLB Network pointed out that in 2017 and 2018, the first team to win 20 games won the World Series. The Dodgers are the first team to 20 wins in 2019.
Just sayin’…