Random Thoughts

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1. I read that Kelly has been modified with another form of throwing, or something like that, why not send it to minor leagues to work on it? And call who could be the future member of the bullpen, what worse can happen with that?
   How many more losses will the Dodgers have to suffer, while Kelly becomes the Kelly we all hope it will be?
   And I’m not saying that Kelly is the culprit, or that he’s the only one to blame, but until today, it’s the most!
   It has to start by someone …

   1. Boston genetically modified him before we took over. It’s a conspiracy!

2. Amaya and Vargas are both heating up. Amaya has hit in nine of his last 10 games while Vargas has hit in eight. They are starting to get multiple hit games. Both are drawing walks – Vargas 13 and Amaya 12. Both are getting hits or scoring runs in key situations.

   Jose Chacin has been arguably the best pitcher on the Loons staff pitching the most innings and all by piggybacking with starter Guillermo Zuninga.

   Keep an eye on Luke Heyer. He started out 0-12 and since then has gone 10-26.

3. 1. It might help Taylor to play everyday in OK.
   2. Bring up Will Smith and send down Taylor and let Smith play.
   3. Use Martin as a pinch hitter and occasional catcher to protect his back and add a righty bat off the bench.
   4. Protect Urias’ arm by pitching him with 3 or 4 days rest in 3 inning relief stints.
   5. Keep Stripling in the rotation and put Maeda in as the 8th inning guy.
   6. Make Floro the 7th inning guy.
   7. Baez, Garcia, and Kelly are trade pieces. José Leclerc has had only 1 good year and is off to a poor start this year. That one is for you AC.
   8. Muncy should backup 1st, 2nd, 3rd and Verdugo should be the right fielder.
   9. If Joc hit 8th against lefties no one would notice the difference in production from that spot in the lineup.
   10. Everyday players: Pederson, Turner, Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo, Hernandez, Pollock.

   1. I will take Jose’ Leclerc all day long. He is 25 who got off to a great start in 2019, and has hit a rough patch of late. He has pitched in 10 games (8.0 IP). The Rangers have won 9 of the 10 games he has pitched in, and the Rangers are 3-10 in games he did not. 5 saves out of 6 save opportunities. He just signed a 4 year extension for $14.75MM, with two options at a max cost of $12.25MM. $27MM for 6 years for a pitcher who has had a rough 5 games with an otherwise a positive 3+ years? Where can I find one? I do not know if it is a concern, but his reliance on his fastball has diminished in the last couple of years. He is relying more on his splitter this year, and maybe that has consequences. Is there a reason?

      Kenley – 6 inherited runners; 4 scored.
      Leclerc – 4 inherited runners; 0 scored

      All in all, give me Jose Leclerc, and I will trust Honey and Mark Prior to make it all work.

      1. I am all in with Leclerc as well. I was only trying to indicate that maybe he isn’t untouchable and not trying to say he isn’t as good as you have indicated. I would rather have Honey working with Leclerc than with Kelly.

         1. Agreed on all!!

         2. I’d go with Blake Treinen. The As are always willing to sell, and he’s on a one year deal and stands to get a raise. The Rangers liked Leclerc enough to sign him to a longish deal. It would be harder to pry him loose, especially if the Rangers are somewhat competitive. …and long term deals for relievers? The Dodgers would now inherit that one.

            Treinen is less of a commitment, especially at 30, and is a good stop gap until the Dodgers figure out who the potential closer is among the internal options.

   2. 7 – And therein lies the problem. Relievers are consistently inconsistent. We might just need to make Stripling the 8th inning guy. Sheesh! I can’t believe Kelly is this bad. 2 quick outs, HBP, 2B, Run. WTF?

      Here’s a random thought. Doc is a freaking idiot having Bellinger hit so low in the lineup and for giving Taylor ABs that Verdugo should be getting.

      Bold prediction – The bullpen will be much better in May than it has been in April.

4. I think Bum has something with #10

5. Why does JT look so slow with the bat? Why is AJ Pollock swinging at pitches in the dirt and outside the zone? Why is CT3 in the starting line-up, why is Belli batting 6th, why can’t Verdugo get a start against LHP and why are the Dodgers so dependent on the HR to score runs? Last night they got 7 or 8 BB’s and 5 of their 6 runs were scored as the result of a HR. Love the long ball but we need to string together AB’s.

   I don’t think Austin Barnes has a ML bat.

6. I don’t think Buehler got tired. Although he only gave up 2 hits through 5 innings, only 1 strikeout and exit velocity was pretty high on balls that were hit.

   JT’s history is that he hits less in April. Let’s see how things progress next month before we panic.

   1. That is what I thought about JT’s March/April. There have only been two years that JT was a regular and played in March/April; one good and one not so good.

      2016 – .247/.330/.325/.654 – 88 PA
      2017 – .404/.465/.562/1.026 – 99 PA

      JT was a role player in 2015 and in 33 PA his line was .273/.294/.455/.749 in 33 PA. He was hurt in 2018. Thus far in 2019 in 103 PA – .259/.369/.294/.663.

      Final 2016 line – .275/.339/.493/.832
      Final 2017 line – .322/.415/.530/.945
      Final 2018 line – .312/.406/.518/.924

      I am not sure we can draw any conclusions, but we can hope that the 2017/2018 JT returns. Even the 2016 JT would be acceptable.

      All that to say, I agree that we will see a different JT as the weather gets warmer.

7. Barnes, Taylor and Muncy are one hit wonders. Each had their outlier year and now they’ve crashed back to earth. Verdugo in right, Belly at first every day and give Muncy back up duty. And give Taylor back to Seattle!

   1. It’s foolish to give up on any of these guys after less than a month.

      CT3 has put up 9.1 WAR in his career. If he can get untracked… and I think he will and so does Doc, then he has real trade value. Why would you throw the baby out because the bathwater is dirty?

      Freidman is seeing what is happening. He knows what the Dodgers need more than we do: (1) A reliable bullpen arm; and (2) a RH bat.

      Baseball is a game of streaks – hot and cold… in case you you have never paid attention. To jump to conclusions now is silly. This has to play out. Give it time. Patience, Grasshoppers!

      1. I totally agree that baseball is a game of streaks, especially with hitting. But, it doesn’t help to continue to sit hot guys in favor of cold guys. It will be interesting to see how Joc does for the first couple of games after another 4 day layoff. Probably cold for 2-3 games against the Pirates, then more lefties against the Giants.

         How do we get a right handed bat into the lineup?
         C – Both right handed, but unreliable.
         1B – Right now it looks like Belli should be here
         2B – Kike – already right handed
         3B – Turner – already right handed
         SS – Seager
         LF – Joc
         CF – Pollock – already right handed
         RF – Verdugo

         Do you notice a pattern here? All of our right handed bats are sucking right now. JT was on fire during the Spring, he’ll be fine. Kike is a streaky hitter, we should all know this right now. Pollock is having trouble adjusting, but he looks a little unlucky. He will turn it around.

         Doc should see what’s going on and adjust instead of being strict with the platoons while also resting Seager too much.

         We all want to see Joc do well against lefties, except for MT. We don’t know what’s going in the clubhouse or pre-game. Maybe Joc needs to take BP from lefties and show Doc he’s ready to play against them.

         1. https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-stock-up-stock-down-joc-rakes-kike-slumps/2019/04/25/

         2. I agree too on streaks and CT3 is in a downward spin. Swinging for the fences still is a losing bet for this guy. He had one good year really. Last year was so-so. This year is horrible. How long do you wait. Give someone else a chance to shine. I don’t agree with Pollack playing every game in CF. He isn’t that great. Play Verdugo every day in RF and Belli alternate at CF and 1B with Freeze.

8. Grant Holmes still hanging in after shoulder problems. Saw him pitch in hi A and was impressed. If he is actually cured of shoulder problems and can make his starts he’ll be up in 2020 at 23 years of age. Still has the heavy fastball and power curve with good depth. If he stays healthy he’ll be a decent middle starter. Still spending the 2.5 million signing bonus Dodgers paid him.

9. Thanks again, AC, for the very informative and interesting “Random Thoughts”. Glad to see that Jacob Amaya and Ryan Moseley are doing so good. Hope they can keep it up. It is still early for the Minor League and also with the big club. Go Dodgers.

10. Re previous post comments on Dodger announcers–I love Hershisher and Davis combo.

11. It hasn’t been just a month for Barnes and Taylor. They were both bad last year as well! Can’t afford to take away ab’s from Verdugo to Taylor. Verdugo should be our everyday right fielder. He is showing he can hit lefties. Belly back to first and Muncy and Hernandez split 2nd and utility.

12. Nice post AC! As always insightful and thought provoking. Since you asked, I thought I would go ahead and answer most of your questions.

    1. Which reliever is going to step up and become a lockdown candidate? Right now, Dylan Floro has been the star of the bullpen. Maybe he should get a few more high leverage or closer opportunities. I think Floro will maintain his effectiveness. Not quite shutdown, but effective. I think Kelly will rebound by July. I’m not 100% sold on Kenley. I think the reliever we will be talking about in a few months will come from the minors or another team. Just don’t know who that is.
    2. It will not be young Julio, as Doc has already stated that Urias will be a multi inning LHP long-man. I think Julio will be a hybrid. Multi-inning initially, then used in shut down situations.
    3. Is Yimi Garcia turning the corner on his season? In his last 5 games, he has pitched 5 innings, not allowing a run or hit, one walk to go with 4 strikeouts. I think Doc is getting comfortable with him as he has pitched in 3 out of the last 5 games (1.0 inning each). He will used in lowere leverage situations for the time being – seems too much like Baez #2
    4. Will Joe Kelly figure it out? Yes, though not as effective as in the WS The Dodgers have no choice but to stay with him, but he gave up the eventual winning run again in Wednesday’s game. Right now he is worse than Brandon League. All we can do is hope he finds whatever he had in the WS. Harsh comparing him to League, but you’re right.
    5. Will Kenley continue to show decreasing effectiveness? Yes Is he a few outings away from his pre-2017 WS self, or is he what we saw in post 2017 WS? Post 2017. Speed is down and the cutter doesn’t cut like it once did.
    6. Kimbrel is not the answer. It is going to have to come from within right now. Maybe Tony Gonsolin, but as long as LAD wants him to start, I do not believe Tony will get the call as a potential closer. Jaime Schultz? Josh Sborz? But then again how much confidence does Doc have in Sborz when he does not get into a game in the week he was up. I hope they give Sborz a chance, sooner rather than later.
    7. Who goes down to OKC when Dick Mountain comes back? I am predicting it will be Caleb Ferguson to continue his quest to remain a starting pitcher. While I really like Ferguson, I think you’re probably right.
    8. Stripling will be the RH version of Urias. Baez and Alexander are who they are. More good outings than bad, but nothing special. Even with Urias and Strip, the bullpen is average at best. Agreed – I think Strip is more effective as a starter, it’s just that he and Maeda are not consistent.
    9. Will Maeda figure out how to be more aggressive. He cannot nibble as a starter or reliever. I know the FO is trying to be fair with Maeda and his contract, but how long will they go? I proposed trading him over the winter. I think he’s lost it and what we see is what we’re going to get from him.
    10. When you do not begin to lengthen in ST, the 6th inning can become a problem for SP in April. It certainly was for Buehler in Wednesday’s game. He was dominating before the 6th. Did he tire? No Or is Chicago really starting to heat up? In the post game interview he said he wasn’t tired, he just made a bad pitch, and paid for it.
    11. CT3 has to play to stay relevant, and it is best against a RHP. But the leash has to be getting shorter, even with his run-scoring single on Wednesday. It has to be getting shorter. He looks totally lost at the plate. I’n not opposed to giving Lux a chance as infield utility and sending Taylor down, ala Puig and Pederson
    12. When does Verdugo get to become a regular? Hopefully starting now. What more does he need to do? Nothing Unfortunately he is the best PH the team has. He is 6-12 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs as a PH. We need him more as a starter than a pinch hitter.
    13. Seager is starting to make better contact even though his HR power has not yet returned. I think Corey is going to have a big 2nd half. I do too.
    14. Is JT hurt, aging, or just off to a slow start? He looks hurt Will he turn it around as the weather warms? I certainly hope so. He just looks more fidgety I the batters’ box than I remember him being.
    15. Will Joc get a legit chance to face lefties? Probably not. I am guessing NO. I guess a fair retort might be, does he deserve the chance after being so bad against them in his ML career? Only way to improve is to give him a chance to succeed.
    16. Will the return of Russell Martin help Austin Barnes and his poor offense since Martin went down? Only slightly. If Martin’s back goes bad again, should the Dodgers consider bringing up Will D. Smith? Yes Why not? I can’t think of any reason
    17. It is way too early to be thinking trade deadline acquisitions. We do not even know who will be buyers and who will be sellers. There will be relievers available. Who is anyone’s guess. I have some thoughts that are percolating. I cannot think of a SP who is good enough for the Dodgers to consider. I am sure one or two will emerge, but they need to be #1 or #2 type SP. The Dodgers have enough #3, #4, or #5 SP. It’s never too early to speculate about possible trades. Part of the fun of being a fan. They need a a solid trustworthy reliever, and I would like to see them add a solid #2 type pitcher. Unfortunately, they don’t grow on trees. If they try May or Gonsolin, they’ll have them on an innings limit, taxing the bullpen more.
    18. What RH bat will be available? No Bums, Mitch Haniger will not be available. Jose Abreu? Will be available, but I’ll pass. Nick Castellanos? May be available, but I’ll pass. There is nobody in the Dodger system who might be considered for this year. They could always humor me and bring up Kyle Garlick to be a pinch-hitter. You never know.

    Keep up the good work AC, DC and Mark! Haven’t posted for awhile (busy preparing for a trial) but I still read every day.

13. Regarding announcers, I like Monday and Neverett just fine but delay between radio and TV doesn’t work for me when watching.
    Monday and Kennedy was very good combination IMO.
    Hershis her and Davis would be ok if they only talked half as much and then kept it to baseball.

14. Wow, Joe Kelly with a scoreless inning!

15. Nice innings from Kelly.
    That insurance run could be the difference.

    1. u weren’t kidding

16. Kenley isn’t what he was Bobby.

    Hope the back is settling down. Must have been all those years of sitting in the cheap seats at the Ravine.

    MJ – whatever you’re up to, hope you’re ok.

    1. Watford

       I have had the slight bit of the flu, but I am feeling better, just because you asked, so thanks!

       1. Glad to hear you’re on the mend.
          Missed your takes these past few days.

          I know you, like me, will be pleased that Verdugo has started the season so strongly. Feel frustrated that they didn’t trust him in the Playoffs.

          1. Watford

             I understand your feelings, but we were a year off with Buehler too.

             Verdugo is a hitter, and that is what we needed.

       2. Absolutely agree that Verdugo belongs in the lineup everyday against all kinds of pitching. Whether it’s LF or RF doesn’t matter to me. That will depend a lot on the performances of Joc, Muncy, etc. , and potential personnel moves that may or may not be made. For example, while he continues to put up good numbers against right-handed pitching , Joc probably has considerable value as a trade piece for some team, whether it’s a straight-up swap, or part of a package.

          And if they can, the Dodgers need to move Chris Taylor. I do not see him as a player that will ever consistently produce. But he may have value somewhere else. It certainly wouldn’t hurt for the Dodgers to explore moving him as well.

          And finally, if the Dodgers think that Smith is ready to produce at the big league level, than it might be time to seriously consider moving Barnes as well.

          I don’t have any specific deals in mind, because I’m not sure how other teams value some of our players, and what they might be willing to surrender in any deal(s). But there are definitely changes that need to be made. And I’m not saying that there is any particular hurry, but over the next several months there is a need to make some changes.

17. Verdugo has to be in the lineup every day. I don’t care if it takes some AB’s from Pollock or CT3, but he has to play. I hope Martin’s back is healthy and his new catcher’s crouch will ease his back strain because he’ll need to start at least three times per week. I realize he’s 36 years-old but he will at least give us a ML AB. Barnes looks at two pitches down the middle and then swings and misses for strike three. I love the way Belli and Verdugo and sometimes Seager give a quality AB each AB. Pollock, JT, CT3, Barnes, Gale, Freese are all non-competitive with AB’s as of late. Offense needs to come to life against the Pirates and Giants.

    1. The Dodgers have 3 players OPSing over 1.000 and 2 are not regulars. I think Verdugo has answered the power question with 4 HR’s 2 3B’s and 4 2B’s, hits LHP, can play CF and has 2 OF assists already. Martin is too but only 15 AB’s and already on the IL. Kike plays better as a super sub and should lose some AB’s to Muncy against RHP. Just an FYI but Verdugo has twice the BA and twice the OPS that CT3 has, Doc please take note!

       1. Vegas, if you haven’t noticed by now, Doc is as stubborn as a mule. By the way, I think Game Winner has a good shot in the Derby.

18. Feeling better, Wat, thanks for asking. They say the road to recovery for this is a few months. I’m just stunned at how much muscle atrophy I’ve had, since i’ve not been able to fully use my right calf for 6 months now!

    Can’t wait to get working out again and get my Giancarlo Stanton body back…….

    1. Hey Bobby, it is tough not to be able to walk. Hope you are to walk without any problems.

       Now on Stripling. I get so sick of Starters being removed at 4-2/3 innings. So much fun seeing relief pitchers pick up all the wins and losses, isn’t it? 🙂

    2. Bobby

       That atrophy you have in that Calf, is probably because of the back surgery you had.

       My left calf has been atrophied since I had my back surgery twenty years ago.

       But if I knew that then, I probably could have done something, to get my muscle back.

19. 2demeter2, I liked your response. Thank you! But just to be clear, there is no bigger non family fan of Caleb Ferguson than me. I have been his biggest fan since 2016. Do I want him to go down to OKC? No, but he has options, and management has made the decision that Alexander is the LHRP they want to go to. With Urias as a reliever, they have their 2 LHRP. Plus both Caleb and management are not ready to quit on the idea of him starting. He is only 22 so he has plenty of time for development and maturity.

    1. I too am an unabashed Ferguson fan. Once he masters an off speed pitch, I think he’s going to be something special. The place to develop that pitch is OKC. It’s unfortunate that Cingrani can’t stay healthy. I was hoping he would be the shut down reliever. Perhaps he’ll still make it back this year.

20. Taylor is a versatile and very good defensive player with good speed trying to hit 20+ home runs. He is over swinging his way into a high K rate and not having a starters position on the team. Kike’ is struggling as a regular and his hold on second base is getting tenuous. Muncy lacks the defensive skill of either Taylor or Hernandez and his bat no longer makes up for that difference.

    Verdugo is about to claim RF and if it is unwise to make a judgement on a player until 25 games have been played, well, we are getting real close to having played 25 games. Belli could wind up at first base full time very soon. And, second base may soon be up for grabs again. If Taylor gets it he will probably have figured out he is not a 20+ home run hitter and instead is a contact hitter with speed and defense.

    If Taylor, Muncy, and Hernandez continue on their current path, there will be a spot for Lux next year if not sooner. Martin’s back could have a say in who is on the 25 within the next 2 weeks. Smith could be brought up and the Dodgers could go with 3 catchers. Gale would be sent down when Martin is activated but space would have to be made for 3 catchers.

    I prefer Muncy to spell Turner at third and of course he can play first so if Martin becomes that righty bat off the bench would Freese be the odd man out or Taylor? If it is Taylor, he would probably spend a few weeks playing full time in OK and then return and that question can be asked again.

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